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unJon
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December 3rd, 2020 at 4:30:12 PM permalink
@Axel and RSanctuary. I thought Mental was doing a great ironic humor. He and his wife were pounding a +EV progressive and she hit. The rest was pretty funny.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AxelWolf
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December 3rd, 2020 at 4:30:50 PM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

I assure you they did not lose money on that. You don't understand how progressives work.

unless it was full pay or some other anomaly.....

I used to frequent the showboat often I don't remember a Joker poker prog (not that there wasn't one)
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TDVegas
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December 3rd, 2020 at 5:22:19 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

I got to the scenic drive
There is a sign that said reservations required
Oh no
Another sign said don't back up due to spikes
I pull up to the station and tell them I have no reservation.
They said 17 bucks
Woohoo
It was magnificent
Took a lot of pics
Stopped at all the parking spots
Disappointed how short it was.

Buffet
75,533.03
All seats filled
Smoker I noticed earlier before my drive still there


The reservation thing is a bunch of crap. My friend has a gold card that he paid for many moons ago for free entry into parks....but the government website for reservations into Red Rock has no option to use it. You have to pay the $15 PLUS the $2 service charge. Gimme a break.

He wants to go....I told him we will simply do what you did. Drive in and wing it. No reason he should have to pay.
gordonm888
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December 3rd, 2020 at 5:27:51 PM permalink
When a progressive jackpot builds to a large amount, it is because no one has hit it for a long time. The money in the progressive jackpot is (mostly) an accumulation of a small fraction of previous wagers that were lost by previous customers. When the jackpot progresses to a high value it may be instantaneously +EV for players but as averaged over the cycle length of the progressive jackpot it is +EV for the house.

Of course the house knows this, and also knows that the size of the jackpot attracts attention and players. They know how to run a casino, where some of the contributors to this thread obviously do not.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
terapined
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December 3rd, 2020 at 5:37:14 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

The reservation thing is a bunch of crap. My friend has a gold card that he paid for many moons ago for free entry into parks....but the government website for reservations into Red Rock has no option to use it. You have to pay the $15 PLUS the $2 service charge. Gimme a break.

He wants to go....I told him we will simply do what you did. Drive in and wing it. No reason he should have to pay.


They asked me if I had a National Park Pass
I said no
Paid 17
Asked how much for the pass
They said 80
I'm thinking I should have bought it
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
terapined
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December 3rd, 2020 at 5:44:28 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Let me know if they demand a reservation to do the scenic drive.

Check out the cake by T-Bones.


What cake
The scale model of the casino hotel?
That's edible?
Buffet machines empty
75,549.20
Going in to see if I can strike ligjtning
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
100xOdds
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December 3rd, 2020 at 6:15:46 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

The minimum US tax rate is actually negative for those with an earned income credit. When I was a graduate student, I asked my professor to give me a taxable job instead a a tax-free job because my tax rate was negative. https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/individuals/earned-income-tax-credit

For people not eligible for the EIC, the minimum tax US rate is 0% and tens of millions of people pay at this 0% federal rate.
Here are some non-zero tax brackets:

2020 Federal Income Tax Brackets and Rates
Rate For Single Individuals For Married Individuals Filing Joint Returns
10% Up to $9,875 Up to $19,750
12% $9,876 to $40,125 $19,751 to $80,250
22% $40,126 to $85,525 $80,251 to $171,050
24% $85,526 to $163,300 $171,051 to $326,600

so with the $12k/person standard tax deduction, you can have $21,875 in taxable income and still be in the 10% bracket.
ie: Roth conversions

yes, if under $12k/yr income then you can do a Roth conversion up to $12k to be tax free.

but i'm on Obamacare and to get subsides you need a minimum of $17,750 income. if less than that, then you go on medicaid.
with max subsidies, i pay $40/month with $100 deductible for great insurance. ($5 co-pay for doctors and physical therapy but 50% co-pay for hospitals and xrays/mri.)
But out of pocket max is like $1000/yr so i dont care financially if i break my leg skiing.

so if i need to artificially inflate my income to $17,750 by Roth conversions then i might as well inflate it to around $21k.

edit:
medicaid in my state is free but i'm assuming it sucks/very restrictive/lots of hoops to jump through.
yes, it's a big assumption on my part but for $40/month ($480/yr), i can afford to pay it for piece of mind. it works just like regular insurance when i worked in the corporate world.
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Dec 3, 2020
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
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December 3rd, 2020 at 6:23:44 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

Played about 30min
Won 6 bucks
Tired of playing, want to be outside, not inside.
Onto the scenic drive

i played a +EV game for 8hrs till i hit.
made $700. (note: You need 4 figures in cash and LOTS of time)
felt like work but work doesnt pay $87.50/hr.
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Dec 3, 2020
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
mcallister3200
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December 3rd, 2020 at 6:24:21 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: Mental

The minimum US tax rate is actually negative for those with an earned income credit. When I was a graduate student, I asked my professor to give me a taxable job instead a a tax-free job because my tax rate was negative. https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/individuals/earned-income-tax-credit

For people not eligible for the EIC, the minimum tax US rate is 0% and tens of millions of people pay at this 0% federal rate.
Here are some non-zero tax brackets:

2020 Federal Income Tax Brackets and Rates
Rate For Single Individuals For Married Individuals Filing Joint Returns
10% Up to $9,875 Up to $19,750
12% $9,876 to $40,125 $19,751 to $80,250
22% $40,126 to $85,525 $80,251 to $171,050
24% $85,526 to $163,300 $171,051 to $326,600

so with the $12k/person standard tax deduction, you can have $21,875 in taxable income and still be in the 10% bracket.
ie: Roth conversions

yes, if under $12k/yr income then you can do a Roth conversion up to $12k to be tax free.
but i'm on Obamacare and to get subsides you need a minimum of $17,750 income. if less than that, then you go on medicaid.
with max subsidies, i pay $40/month with $100 deductible for great insurance. ($5 co-pay for doctors and physical therapy but 50% co-pay for hospitals and xrays/mri.)
But out of packet max is like $1000/yr so i dont care financially if i break my leg skiing.

so if i need to artificially inflate my income to $17,750 by Roth conversions then i might as well inflate it to around $21k.



WTF type of racket is that. I have to pay like 400/month for the worst possible plans on the obummacare marketplace with 5k deductible and Iím in my mid 30ís with no pre-existing or smoking..or 100ish month for the stuff on the temp market for the type that you donít know if theyíll actually ever cover stuff when you need it which is what Iíve done since mandate ended without ever trying to use it.
100xOdds
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December 3rd, 2020 at 6:30:54 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: Mental

The minimum US tax rate is actually negative for those with an earned income credit. When I was a graduate student, I asked my professor to give me a taxable job instead a a tax-free job because my tax rate was negative. https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/individuals/earned-income-tax-credit

For people not eligible for the EIC, the minimum tax US rate is 0% and tens of millions of people pay at this 0% federal rate.
Here are some non-zero tax brackets:

2020 Federal Income Tax Brackets and Rates
Rate For Single Individuals For Married Individuals Filing Joint Returns
10% Up to $9,875 Up to $19,750
12% $9,876 to $40,125 $19,751 to $80,250
22% $40,126 to $85,525 $80,251 to $171,050
24% $85,526 to $163,300 $171,051 to $326,600

so with the $12k/person standard tax deduction, you can have $21,875 in taxable income and still be in the 10% bracket.
ie: Roth conversions

yes, if under $12k/yr income then you can do a Roth conversion up to $12k to be tax free.
but i'm on Obamacare and to get subsides you need a minimum of $17,750 income. if less than that, then you go on medicaid.
with max subsidies, i pay $40/month with $100 deductible for great insurance. ($5 co-pay for doctors and physical therapy but 50% co-pay for hospitals and xrays/mri.)
But out of packet max is like $1000/yr so i dont care financially if i break my leg skiing.

so if i need to artificially inflate my income to $17,750 by Roth conversions then i might as well inflate it to around $21k.



WTF type of racket is that. I have to pay like 400/month for the worst possible plans on the obummacare marketplace with 5k deductible and Iím in my mid 30ís with no pre-existing or smoking..

if you make less than $50k (single), then you're doing it wrong.
select silver plan because silver is the only tier that has subsidies and the max income to get some subsidies is $50k (single).
note: to get max subsidies, you have to be $1 above poverty levels. ie: ~$17,750

i dont know what the min/max is for married or with kids
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
mcallister3200
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December 3rd, 2020 at 6:38:54 PM permalink
Yeah I donít make under 50. Sounds like itís basically a self employed people (so donít get through employer) who make over 50 subsidize everyone else marketplace.
mcallister3200
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December 3rd, 2020 at 6:42:18 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

They asked me if I had a National Park Pass
I said no
Paid 17
Asked how much for the pass
They said 80
I'm thinking I should have bought it



Itís $80 lifetime if youíre a senior citizen, not sure the age break for that. 80 annual otherwise yeah Iíd think well worth it if youíre retired I do it every year and itís worth it for me. Good for all National Parks/forests/monuments but doesnít include special fees like camping or whatever.
100xOdds
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December 3rd, 2020 at 6:49:51 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Yeah I donít make under 50k. Sounds like itís basically a self employed.
people (who donít get through employer) who make over 50k subsidize everyone else marketplace.

no. the insurance companies charge market price no matter which plan.

the govt subsidies is from EVERYONE who pays taxes. (ie: those who make less than $50k/yr but get company health insurance.)
govt subsidizes us through general tax revenue. (or nowadays, debt deficit)
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Dec 3, 2020
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
mcallister3200
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December 3rd, 2020 at 6:54:20 PM permalink
Well, itís an utter trash product when you pay full market when you were required to have a qualifying plan Iíll just leave it at that.
100xOdds
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December 3rd, 2020 at 7:03:21 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Well, itís an utter trash product when you pay full market when you were required to have a qualifying plan. Iíll just leave it at that.

maybe so but there are probably lots of people making slightly above poverty levels that would love to trade positions with you.
ie: have crappy insurance and make over $50k
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
mcallister3200
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December 3rd, 2020 at 7:05:14 PM permalink
Iím not so sure about THAT lol.
Mental
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December 3rd, 2020 at 7:34:24 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I paid a visit to the Red Rock today, in part to check on the Reversible Royal jackpots. Here is an update:

Bank by Starbucks:
Oct 19: $40,389
Dec 2: $40,741

Bank by buffet:
Oct 19: $73,860
Dec 2: $75,489

Here is my original article about these 105%+ games.


I didn't see any mention of variance in your article.
The 5-nickel game has a variance of 15,820. ROI = 105.43% for 6/5 BP
The 10-nickel game has a variance of 18,485. ROI = 105.60% for 9/6/4 DB
These variances are 800-900 times higher than for 9/6 jacks or better.
This means the standard deviations will be about 30 times greater than you would experience for JOB. Skew in the distribution will be horrible until you have played an equivalent game for quite a few cycles or many millions of hands.
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Wizard
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December 3rd, 2020 at 9:22:36 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

What cake
The scale model of the casino hotel?
That's edible?



I think it's a cake.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
jjjoooggg
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December 3rd, 2020 at 9:25:57 PM permalink
I recognize Mike. You let your hair grow out.
Born in Texas and lived in Texas my whole life.
AxelWolf
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December 3rd, 2020 at 10:10:54 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

When a progressive jackpot builds to a large amount, it is because no one has hit it for a long time. The money in the progressive jackpot is (mostly) an accumulation of a small fraction of previous wagers that were lost by previous customers. When the jackpot progresses to a high value it may be instantaneously +EV for players but as averaged over the cycle length of the progressive jackpot it is +EV for the house.

Of course the house knows this, and also knows that the size of the jackpot attracts attention and players. They know how to run a casino, where some of the contributors to this thread obviously do not.

For the most part are right, however, there have been many 100%+ VP games (at reset) with a progressive on top of that. For example, full pay deuces wild with a progressive on the deuces and the Royal, 10/7 double bonus poker with a multi way prog. They might have those for a number of reasons, it could be a loss leader, they could know that the average person won't play a good enough strategy to gain an advantage, it could just be something they overlooked.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Mental
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December 4th, 2020 at 4:38:44 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

For the most part are right, however, there have been many 100%+ VP games (at reset) with a progressive on top of that. For example, full pay deuces wild with a progressive on the deuces and the Royal, 10/7 double bonus poker with a multi way prog. They might have those for a number of reasons, it could be a loss leader, they could know that the average person won't play a good enough strategy to gain an advantage, it could just be something they overlooked.



An example of the overlooked variety,: A KOB JW game where the progressive was set to the five-of-a-kind. The slot director can set the pay table and separately choose to make the progressive apply to the RF or 5OAK. If you choose 5OAK and a good pay table, you get a progressive that resets to 100%+ ROI. I was playing a 10-machine bank like this by myself in the early hours of the morning. Suits came around with a clipboard and started auditing the machines. The machines on either side of me had a return-to-player of over 100%., even with player mistakes. After some discussion, they blue-screened all of the other machines and said to me "Sir, when you are done playing, we are going to have to shut that game down." I did not leave until I hit the 5OAK progressive. This was after six weeks of 'AP Fest'. I was annoyed that certain APs took exactly the same seats and worked a 10-hour shift during the same day-time hours every day.

A panicked shutdown also occurred around me on a non-progressive $5 All American bank, but it only took a week for the casino to notice. I eventually had to take a bathroom break and it was over.
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AxelWolf
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December 4th, 2020 at 5:46:23 AM permalink
Quote: Mental



A panicked shutdown also occurred around me on a non-progressive $5 All American bank.

What version?

The only place I have ever seen a good $5 denomination was in KC.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Mental
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December 4th, 2020 at 5:56:45 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

What version?


$5 Full Pay All American at Trump Marina. Obviously, not recently.
Hand NamePayoutProbabilityCycleVarianceReturn %
Royal 8000.000023015 43450.1 14.69 1.8412%
Str_Flush 2000.000141786 7052.86 5.61 2.8357%
Quads 400.002251772 444.094 3.42 9.0071%
Full_House 80.010981573 91.0616 0.54 8.7853%
Flush 80.015713038 63.6414 0.7712.5704%
Straight 80.018426400 54.2699 0.9014.7411%
Trips 30.068836822 14.5271 0.2720.6510%
Two_Pair 10.119602446 8.36103 0.0011.9602%
JOB 10.183299746 5.45554 0.0018.3300%
Nada 00.580723403 1.72199 0.59 0.0000%
----1.000000000-- 26.80100.7221%
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Dec 4, 2020
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TDVegas
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December 4th, 2020 at 10:49:21 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I think it's a cake.


Originally I thought it was all gingerbread....but now I donít think so. Took 500 man hours.
AxelWolf
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December 4th, 2020 at 11:38:59 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

$5 Full Pay All American at Trump Marina. Obviously, not recently.

Hand NamePayoutProbabilityCycleVarianceReturn %
Royal 8000.000023015 43450.1 14.69 1.8412%
Str_Flush 2000.000141786 7052.86 5.61 2.8357%
Quads 400.002251772 444.094 3.42 9.0071%
Full_House 80.010981573 91.0616 0.54 8.7853%
Flush 80.015713038 63.6414 0.7712.5704%
Straight 80.018426400 54.2699 0.9014.7411%
Trips 30.068836822 14.5271 0.2720.6510%
Two_Pair 10.119602446 8.36103 0.0011.9602%
JOB 10.183299746 5.45554 0.0018.3300%
Nada 00.580723403 1.72199 0.59 0.0000%
----1.000000000-- 26.80100.7221%

They had a 50/250 coin 4oak version that was 103%
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Mental
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December 4th, 2020 at 1:51:55 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

They had a 50/250 coin 4oak version that was 103%



Yikes! How long ago was that?

I really enjoyed playing the strategy for the 100.7% version of AA, Sadly, all the games were uprights and $1 denomination or less, so I rarely played. I finally got to play a $5 console AA game, and it was gone within days.

In All American, you almost never hold zero cards, so you get a redraw RF only once in 69,764,912 hands. For NSUD, it is once in 4,159,463 hands. Here is a chart with probabilities of getting a RF holding N cards while playing optimum strategy.

# HeldProbability% of RFRF Cycle
00.00000001433 0.06% 69764912
10.00000054196 2.35% 1845161
20.00000290759 12.63% 343928
30.00001034926 44.97% 96625
40.00000766264 33.29% 130503
50.00000153908 6.69% 649740
Any0.00002301486 100.00% 43450


Also, the version of AA paying 200 coins for quads has a common redundancy. If you are dealt a hand like Ac 2d 6h Th Qh, holding Th Qh or 6h Th Qh has the same ROI. Therefore, the royal cycle is not uniquely determined. JB's calculator and WinPoker say the royal cycle is 43,402, while I get 43,450.
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USpapergames
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December 4th, 2020 at 2:08:28 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

That is the whole point of this thread! Duh....



So just spent a couple of minutes reviewing the thread and Shackleford has the ROI's of each payout listed in the 1st comment. The payouts clearly are all equal to or better than the odds with optimal play strategy. Only if Shackleford is wrong about his probabilities can the jackpot be the only positive ROI payout since he totals all the figures and none of them are negative.
Math is the only true form of knowledge
Mental
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December 4th, 2020 at 5:59:35 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I paid a visit to the Red Rock today, in part to check on the Reversible Royal jackpots. Here is an update:

Bank by Starbucks:
Oct 19: $40,389
Dec 2: $40,741

Bank by buffet:
Oct 19: $73,860
Dec 2: $75,489


I had just assumed that these were progressive games with fast meters. However, in the 44 days between reports, the first one has only moved 32 bets/day and the second one moved 74 bets/day. I was used to 2% progressives in the old days, and I guess that 0.5% might be considered a good rate these days. Another report suggested there are 6 machines per bank. If the meter moves 32 bets in a day, this rate must be more like 0.2%. That is, just 16K hands per day at 0.2% would move the meter 32 bets or $8 on the first game. The second game would be averaging 37K hands per day.

From another angle, if I assume both machines are overdue and 5M hands were played since last reset and the meter is 0.2%, then the first game only moved $2500 and the second only moved $5000. This would mean the reset levels are very high and very +EV at reset.

The only thing that makes sense to me is that the meters are much faster than 0,2%, but the games are hardly being played at all. I once played 17K hands in a single day all by myself. This implies that the machines are generally available, especially in off hours.
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mcallister3200
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December 4th, 2020 at 6:09:42 PM permalink
Quote: Mental



The only thing that makes sense to me is that the meters are much faster than 0,2%, but the games are hardly being played at all. I once played 17K hands in a single day all by myself. This implies that the machines are generally available, especially in off hours.



I was thinking they may have dumped a bunch of progressive money from closed/removed games into it after Covid shutdown. Bartop quarter progressive there was over 7500 when bars reopened, would have to have been over 15 cycles with normal meter if extra wasnít moved into it.
AxelWolf
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December 5th, 2020 at 4:05:10 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

Yikes! How long ago was that?

I really enjoyed playing the strategy for the 100.7% version of AA, Sadly, all the games were uprights and $1 denomination or less, so I rarely played. I finally got to play a $5 console AA game, and it was gone within days.

In All American, you almost never hold zero cards, so you get a redraw RF only once in 69,764,912 hands. For NSUD, it is once in 4,159,463 hands. Here is a chart with probabilities of getting a RF holding N cards while playing optimum strategy.

# HeldProbability% of RFRF Cycle
00.00000001433 0.06% 69764912
10.00000054196 2.35% 1845161
20.00000290759 12.63% 343928
30.00001034926 44.97% 96625
40.00000766264 33.29% 130503
50.00000153908 6.69% 649740
Any0.00002301486 100.00% 43450


Also, the version of AA paying 200 coins for quads has a common redundancy. If you are dealt a hand like Ac 2d 6h Th Qh, holding Th Qh or 6h Th Qh has the same ROI. Therefore, the royal cycle is not uniquely determined. JB's calculator and WinPoker say the royal cycle is 43,402, while I get 43,450.

This was pre 2000. They would pop up infrequently and not last very long, since they would get locked up for the most part. KC has some that lasted for some years in the .25 denomination since they were never locked up and few pros knew about them. That was one of the first things I know of that got killed because someone posted up all about it on Skip's page(now VPFree2)

That was the most difficult strategy I ever had to learn. I only had a few hours on a plane to learn it, I didn't learn it prefect, but it was good enough for for the promotion I went there for. Anything bigger than 4oak was doubled... That didn't last too long and it was difficult to get money into the casino since they had a $300 daily buy in limit back then.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Mental
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December 5th, 2020 at 5:55:01 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

I was thinking they may have dumped a bunch of progressive money from closed/removed games into it after Covid shutdown. Bartop quarter progressive there was over 7500 when bars reopened, would have to have been over 15 cycles with normal meter if extra wasnít moved into it.


Your theory makes more sense than any combination of reset levels or meter rates. This is a lot better for the casino than dumping it into a progressive that hits quickly. More time for the players to drain away 5% waiting for the SRF. Red Rock also paid out a $150,850 Sequential RF for a $1.25 wager in September. This also made no sense.

CZR once dumped over $10K into the fifth level progressive on a Fireball machine. I don't know how they picked the fifth of eight progressives. I was stuck over $7K when I hit it for about 235,000 nickels. It reset to 10,000 nickels.
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tringlomane
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December 5th, 2020 at 8:09:10 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

I had just assumed that these were progressive games with fast meters. However, in the 44 days between reports, the first one has only moved 32 bets/day and the second one moved 74 bets/day. I was used to 2% progressives in the old days, and I guess that 0.5% might be considered a good rate these days. Another report suggested there are 6 machines per bank. If the meter moves 32 bets in a day, this rate must be more like 0.2%. That is, just 16K hands per day at 0.2% would move the meter 32 bets or $8 on the first game. The second game would be averaging 37K hands per day.

From another angle, if I assume both machines are overdue and 5M hands were played since last reset and the meter is 0.2%, then the first game only moved $2500 and the second only moved $5000. This would mean the reset levels are very high and very +EV at reset.

The only thing that makes sense to me is that the meters are much faster than 0,2%, but the games are hardly being played at all. I once played 17K hands in a single day all by myself. This implies that the machines are generally available, especially in off hours.



Many meters I see move 0.25% and 0.5% today. :( As McAllister said, it's likely a progressive dump.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Mental

Yikes! How long ago was that?

I really enjoyed playing the strategy for the 100.7% version of AA, Sadly, all the games were uprights and $1 denomination or less, so I rarely played. I finally got to play a $5 console AA game, and it was gone within days.

In All American, you almost never hold zero cards, so you get a redraw RF only once in 69,764,912 hands. For NSUD, it is once in 4,159,463 hands. Here is a chart with probabilities of getting a RF holding N cards while playing optimum strategy.

# HeldProbability% of RFRF Cycle
00.00000001433 0.06% 69764912
10.00000054196 2.35% 1845161
20.00000290759 12.63% 343928
30.00001034926 44.97% 96625
40.00000766264 33.29% 130503
50.00000153908 6.69% 649740
Any0.00002301486 100.00% 43450


Also, the version of AA paying 200 coins for quads has a common redundancy. If you are dealt a hand like Ac 2d 6h Th Qh, holding Th Qh or 6h Th Qh has the same ROI. Therefore, the royal cycle is not uniquely determined. JB's calculator and WinPoker say the royal cycle is 43,402, while I get 43,450.

This was pre 2000. They would pop up infrequently and not last very long, since they would get locked up for the most part. KC has some that lasted for some years in the .25 denomination since they were never locked up and few pros knew about them. That was one of the first things I know of that got killed because someone posted up all about it on Skip's page(now VPFree2)

That was the most difficult strategy I ever had to learn. I only had a few hours on a plane to learn it, I didn't learn it prefect, but it was good enough for for the promotion I went there for. Anything bigger than 4oak was doubled... That didn't last too long and it was difficult to get money into the casino since they had a $300 daily buy in limit back then.



You mean $500 loss per 2 hours? Missouri was restrictive, but not THAT restrictive. But if $5 VP existed, you surely could blow thru $500 quick. Even at dollars. Last time I played the game was 2004 in Boonville. But I heard KC held onto 100.7% quarters for longer.
rsactuary
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December 5th, 2020 at 8:15:19 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

This is a lot better for the casino than dumping it into a progressive that hits quickly.



I believe it is law that you have to put the progressive money into something that has about a similar probability of hitting ( +/- 5% range if I recall correctly).
tringlomane
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December 5th, 2020 at 8:32:31 AM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

I believe it is law that you have to put the progressive money into something that has about a similar probability of hitting ( +/- 5% range if I recall correctly).



That's big news to me. I've never heard/read of such a thing. And that is a tolerance that's very tight. It might be difficult to find an appropriate place to dump the jackpot with that standard. Nevada gaming regulation 5.110 says nothing of the sort, fwiw.

Quote: Nevada Gaming Commission


5.110 In-house progressive payoff schedules.
As used in this section:
ďBase amountĒ means the amount of a progressive payoff schedule initially offered before it
increases.
ďChairĒ means the Chair of the Nevada Gaming Control Board or the Chairís designee.
ďIncremental amountíí means the difference between the amount of a progressive payoff schedule
and its base amount.
ďProgressive payoff scheduleĒ means a game or machine payoff schedule, including those
associated with contests, tournaments or promotions, that increases automatically over time or as the
game(s) or machine(s) are played.
The amount of a progressive payoff schedule shall be conspicuously displayed at or near the
games or machines to which the payoff schedule applies. Each licensee shall record the base amount of
each progressive payoff schedule when first exposed for play and subsequent to each payoff. At least once
a day each licensee shall log the amount of each progressive payoff schedule at the licenseeís
establishment except for those that can be paid directly from a slot machineís hopper or those offered in
conjunction with an inter-casino linked system. Explanations for reading decreases shall be maintained with
the progressive logs. When the reduction is attributable to a payoff, the licensee shall record the payoff
form number on the log or have the number reasonably available.
A licensee may change the rate of progression of any progressive payoff schedule provided that
records of such changes are created.
A licensee may limit a progressive payoff schedule to an amount that is equal to or greater than
the amount of the payoff schedule when the limit is imposed. The licensee shall post a conspicuous notice
of the limit at or near the games(s) or machine(s) to which the limit applies.
A licensee shall not reduce the amount of a progressive payoff schedule or otherwise eliminate a
progressive payoff schedule unless:
A player wins the progressive payoff schedule;
The licensee adjusts the progressive payoff schedule to correct a malfunction or to prevent the
display of an amount greater than a limit imposed pursuant to subsection 4, and the licensee documents
the adjustment and the reasons for it;
The licensee distributes the entire incremental amount to another single progressive payoff
schedule on similar game(s) or machine(s) at the licenseeís establishment and:
The licensee documents the distribution;
Any game or slot machine offering the payoff schedule to which the licensee distributes the
incremental amount does not require that more money be played on a single play to win the payoff schedule
than the game or slot machine from which the incremental amount is distributed unless the incremental
amount distributed is increased in proportion to the increase in the amount of the wager required to win the
payoff schedule;
If from a slot machine, any slot machine offering the payoff schedule to which the incremental
amount is distributed complies with the minimum theoretical payout requirement of Regulation 14.040(1);
and
The distribution is completed within 30 days after the progressive payoff schedule is removed from
play or within such longer period as the Chair may for good cause approve;
For games other than slot machines, the incremental amount may be distributed within 90 days of
removal through a concluding contest, tournament or promotion and the contest, tournament or promotion
is conducted with a game(s) similar to the game(s) from which the amounts are distributed; or
The Chair, upon a showing of exceptional circumstances, approves a reduction, elimination,
distribution, or procedure not otherwise described in this subsection, which approval is confirmed in writing.
A progressive payoff schedule may be temporarily removed for a period of up to 30 days to allow
for the remodeling of the licensed gaming establishment, or for such longer period or other good cause as
the Chair may approve.
Except as otherwise provided by this section, the incremental amount of a progressive payoff
schedule is an obligation to the licenseeís patrons, and it shall be the responsibility of the licensee if the licensee ceases operation of the progressive game or slot machine for any reason, including a transfer of
ownership of the licensed gaming establishment, to arrange for satisfaction of that obligation in a manner
approved by the Chair.
Licensees shall maintain the records required by this section for at least five years after they are
made unless the Chair approves otherwise in writing.

Mental
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December 5th, 2020 at 8:58:59 AM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

I believe it is law that you have to put the progressive money into something that has about a similar probability of hitting ( +/- 5% range if I recall correctly).


I would like to think this would be required. Otherwise, casinos employees could dump big progressives into a quad progressive or similar quick-hitting progressive and let a confederate steal the dumped money within a short amount of play.

Quote: tringlomane

That's big news to me. I've never heard/read of such a thing. And that is a tolerance that's very tight. It might be difficult to find an appropriate place to dump the jackpot with that standard. Nevada gaming regulation 5.110 says nothing of the sort, fwiw.
..................
The licensee distributes the entire incremental amount to another single progressive payoff schedule on similar game(s) or machine(s) at the licenseeís establishment and:
The licensee documents the distribution;
Any game or slot machine offering the payoff schedule to which the licensee distributes the incremental amount does not require that more money be played on a single play to win the payoff schedule than the game or slot machine from which the incremental amount is distributed ...


Thanks for posting this. Unless I missed something, nothing here prevents casinos from dumping the progressive to a confederate. The requirement that the new bet be less than or equal to the old bet just makes it cheaper for the confederate to take down the new jackpot. Do you see anything that makes it harder for casino employees to steal jackpots via confederates? A regulation like the one that rsactuary mentions would be helpful.

NJ recently changed the rules to make it easier for casinos to pocket progressives for themselves.
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rsactuary
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December 5th, 2020 at 9:08:19 AM permalink
I guess that's how I interpreted the below part of that statute. Perhaps I'm reading too much into that. But I thought I did see a +/- 5% somewhere..... My apologies if I misinformed.

"The licensee distributes the entire incremental amount to another single progressive payoff schedule on similar game(s) or machine(s) at the licenseeís establishment"
Wizard
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December 6th, 2020 at 7:44:34 PM permalink
Besides the two 5-cent 105%+ reversible royal games at the Red Rock, there is another positive 25-cent game.



This one is located near the circle bar in the middle of the casino.

Here is the return table, based on the best base pay table, 6-5 Bonus Poker.

Outcome Prize Probability Return
Reversible Royal Flush 478,568 0.000001 0.058465
Royal Flush 4,000 0.000025 0.020137
Straight Flush 250 0.000105 0.005259
Four Aces 400 0.000203 0.016221
Four 2s, 3s, 4s 200 0.000525 0.020999
Four 5s thru Ks 125 0.001633 0.040819
Full House 30 0.011385 0.068309
Flush 25 0.010671 0.053356
Straight 20 0.011111 0.044446
Three of a Kind 15 0.074324 0.222972
Two Pair 10 0.129041 0.258081
Jacks or Better 5 0.214397 0.214397
All Other 0 0.546579 0.000000
Totals 1.000000 1.023461


While the return at 102.35% is not as high as the nickel games, the hourly expected win is higher!

Based on 1,000 hands per hour, the expected win per hour is $29.33.

On the buffet bank, it is $23.63.

How has nobody noticed this before (shut up Wiz!)?
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Mental
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December 7th, 2020 at 6:08:03 AM permalink
You did not give the entire list of available games. It appears they have at least 1% better ROI than the nickel games, considering how much better the BP pay table is compared to the 94.1829% return for the nickel game.

Here are the ROI boosts that I calculate for different games with a 95,713 bet reversible SRF jackpot (478,568 credits):
GameROI Boost from SRF
7/5 Bdlx5.484%
7/5 JB5.498%
6/5 BP5.510%
8/5 DDB5.541%
8/5 TDB5.574%

I am just guessing at available pay tables. TDB is boosted by 0.09% more than Bonus Deluxe. The boost depends on the structure of the pay table and the level of the SRF jackpot.

The game with the better base ROI is not necessarily the best game at any particular SRF jackpot level. It depends when the strategy changes turn on and how much this hurts the drain of the game. I don't know if this will ever flip the best game on a given progressive, but it might be enough to make the ROIs close enough that you will switch to a game that you prefer playing.
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Wizard
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December 7th, 2020 at 6:31:19 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

You did not give the entire list of available games.



Here are all the games on the 25-cent game. Returns do not count the progressive value above 800 per coin bet.

Base game pay table Return
bonus poker deluxe 7-5 96.25%
bonus poker 6-5 96.87%
double bonus 9-6-4 96.38%
double double bonus 8-5 96.79%
jacks or better 7-5 96.15%
triple double bonus 8-5 95.97%
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100xOdds
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December 7th, 2020 at 6:57:27 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

You did not give the entire list of available games. It appears they have at least 1% better ROI than the nickel games, considering how much better the BP pay table is compared to the 94.1829% return for the nickel game.

Here are the ROI boosts that I calculate for different games with a 95,713 bet reversible SRF jackpot (478,568 credits):

GameROI Boost from SRF
7/5 Bdlx5.484%
7/5 JB5.498%
6/5 BP5.510%
8/5 DDB5.541%
8/5 TDB5.574%

I am just guessing at available pay tables. TDB is boosted by 0.09% more than Bonus Deluxe. The boost depends on the structure of the pay table and the level of the SRF jackpot.

The game with the better base ROI is not necessarily the best game at any particular SRF jackpot level. It depends when the strategy changes turn on and how much this hurts the drain of the game. I don't know if this will ever flip the best game on a given progressive, but it might be enough to make the ROIs close enough that you will switch to a game that you prefer playing.

if going for the srf, i would play the game with low variance.
ie: JoB or BP

Quote: Wizard

Here are all the games on the 25-cent game. Returns do not count the progressive value above 800 per coin bet.

Base game pay table Return
bonus poker deluxe 7-5 96.25%
bonus poker 6-5 96.87%
double bonus 9-6-4 96.38%
double double bonus 8-5 96.79%
jacks or better 7-5 96.15%
triple double bonus 8-5 95.97%

BP is the no brainer here.
low variance and highest return.

whats the bankroll needed to hit the .25 srf?
how about the nickel srf?
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Mental
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December 7th, 2020 at 7:09:35 AM permalink
Thanks for the game list. With the SRF paying 95,713 bets:
Pay Table / GameRev SRF ROIROI w/o SRFDelta ROI
7-5 Bonus Poker Deluxe 101.736% 96.253% 5.484%
6-5 Bonus Poker 102.379% 96.869% 5.510%
9-6-4 Double Bonus 101.883% 96.375% 5.508%
8-5 Double Double Bonus 102.315% 96.786% 5.528%
7-5 Jacks or Better 101.645% 96.147% 5.498%
8-5 Triple Double Bonus 101.543% 95.969% 5.574%


Variance ranges from 5643 to 6058. This leads to significantly increased risk compared to the nickel games, but I would accept the variance in return for higher hourly expected value. Of course, I will probably never play at Red Rock.
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Mental
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December 7th, 2020 at 8:02:38 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

whats the bankroll needed to hit the .25 srf?
how about the nickel srf?


Variance ranges from 5643 to 6058. for the available game, so basically the same for every game. In comparison, the variance for the base TDB game is five times higher the variance for the base BP game. The quad ace's with kicker paying 4000 coins in TDB hardly makes a difference to variance.

You will have smaller daily swings with BP. This matters in deciding whether you have enough of you bankroll in your pocket to not tap out during the session. The variance is a long-term concept, so daily swings are not the same as variance.

You only need $1.25 to play one hand. You need more bankroll if you are going to play until someone hits the SRF. How much depends on how much competition you have. You need even more if you are going to bankroll a team to lock up all the seats and play until you hit with low risk of ruin.

The drain is 3.5% for BP. The SRF cycle is 1.6M hands. If you go 4 cycles without hitting, you will lose 6.4M * 3.5% = $224K before you hit. Have fun!
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Greasyjohn
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December 10th, 2020 at 9:57:32 AM permalink
I didnít read this entire thread but came upon this while checking out Vegas on the web:

ďAt about 12:28 a.m. on Nov. 30, a local guest playing a Double Double Bonus Progressive Reversible Royals machine at Red Rock Casino hit a sequential royal flush for a $278,318 payday.
The guest, who asked to remain anonymous, bet $2 denomination x 5, making the total bet of $10 to win the huge jackpot.Ē
SOOPOO
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December 10th, 2020 at 12:11:00 PM permalink
Quote: Greasyjohn

I didnít read this entire thread but came upon this while checking out Vegas on the web:

ďAt about 12:28 a.m. on Nov. 30, a local guest playing a Double Double Bonus Progressive Reversible Royals machine at Red Rock Casino hit a sequential royal flush for a $278,318 payday.
The guest, who asked to remain anonymous, bet $2 denomination x 5, making the total bet of $10 to win the huge jackpot.Ē



Did he have a really scraggly beard, kind of looking like a homeless man? Was he asking the waitresses weird questions?

What does the progressive re set to?
AlanMendelson
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December 10th, 2020 at 12:41:04 PM permalink
Wizard the kiosk of 25-cent machines in the center of Red Rock casino was an expansion of the original 25-cent machines by the men's and women's restrooms to the right of the main casino entryway. Both the machines in the center of the casino and the machines by the restrooms have the same progressive jackpot amount; they're linked.

The kiosk in the center of the casino appeared several months ago when Red Rock overhauled their casino floor.
Greasyjohn
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December 10th, 2020 at 5:11:14 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Did he have a really scraggly beard, kind of looking like a homeless man? Was he asking the waitresses weird questions?

What does the progressive re set to?



I donít really know anything more about this other than it was a 52-year-old woman I believe.
terapined
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December 25th, 2020 at 9:16:39 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Besides the two 5-cent 105%+ reversible royal games at the Red Rock, there is another positive 25-cent game.



This one is located near the circle bar in the middle of the casino.

Here is the return table, based on the best base pay table, 6-5 Bonus Poker.

Outcome Prize Probability Return
Reversible Royal Flush 478,568 0.000001 0.058465
Royal Flush 4,000 0.000025 0.020137
Straight Flush 250 0.000105 0.005259
Four Aces 400 0.000203 0.016221
Four 2s, 3s, 4s 200 0.000525 0.020999
Four 5s thru Ks 125 0.001633 0.040819
Full House 30 0.011385 0.068309
Flush 25 0.010671 0.053356
Straight 20 0.011111 0.044446
Three of a Kind 15 0.074324 0.222972
Two Pair 10 0.129041 0.258081
Jacks or Better 5 0.214397 0.214397
All Other 0 0.546579 0.000000
Totals 1.000000 1.023461


While the return at 102.35% is not as high as the nickel games, the hourly expected win is higher!

Based on 1,000 hands per hour, the expected win per hour is $29.33.

On the buffet bank, it is $23.63.

How has nobody noticed this before (shut up Wiz!)?


Up to 125,311.87
Looks like the 5 cent machine by buffet entrance hit, progressive in the 5k range
5 cent by food court at 40,933.34
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
terapined
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December 25th, 2020 at 9:47:12 AM permalink
A little excitement
Playing the 125,318.02 machine Bonus poker 25c
Hit
10H JH 9H KH QH
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
Mental
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December 25th, 2020 at 10:18:06 AM permalink
Quote: terapined

Looks like the 5 cent machine by buffet entrance hit, progressive in the 5k range



According to the Wiz:
Bank by buffet:
Oct 19: $73,860
Dec 2: $75,489

This was a 10-coin game, so $5K reset would be a 10,000 to one jackpot payoff on a 50 cent bet.

It seems pretty clear that other jackpots were moved to these sequential RF jackpots to get them so high. Once they are hit, they are unlikely to ever get near 105% ROI again.
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December 25th, 2020 at 4:51:01 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

Looks like the 5 cent machine by buffet entrance hit, progressive in the 5k range
5 cent by food court at 40,933.34



Shoot. Thanks for letting us know.

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