Red Rock 105% Reversible Royal Game

Quote: rsactuary

I assure you they did not lose money on that. You don't understand how progressives work.

Quote: terapined

I got to the scenic drive
There is a sign that said reservations required
Oh no
Another sign said don't back up due to spikes
I pull up to the station and tell them I have no reservation.
They said 17 bucks
Woohoo
It was magnificent
Took a lot of pics
Stopped at all the parking spots
Disappointed how short it was.

Buffet
75,533.03
All seats filled
Smoker I noticed earlier before my drive still there

Quote: TDVegas

The reservation thing is a bunch of crap. My friend has a gold card that he paid for many moons ago for free entry into parks....but the government website for reservations into Red Rock has no option to use it. You have to pay the $15 PLUS the $2 service charge. Gimme a break.

He wants to go....I told him we will simply do what you did. Drive in and wing it. No reason he should have to pay.

Quote: Wizard

Let me know if they demand a reservation to do the scenic drive.

Check out the cake by T-Bones.

Quote: Mental

The minimum US tax rate is actually negative for those with an earned income credit. When I was a graduate student, I asked my professor to give me a taxable job instead a a tax-free job because my tax rate was negative. https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/individuals/earned-income-tax-credit

For people not eligible for the EIC, the minimum tax US rate is 0% and tens of millions of people pay at this 0% federal rate.
Here are some non-zero tax brackets:

2020 Federal Income Tax Brackets and Rates
Rate	For Single Individuals	For Married Individuals Filing Joint Returns
10%	Up to $9,875	        Up to $19,750
12%	$9,876 to $40,125	$19,751 to $80,250
22%	$40,126 to $85,525	$80,251 to $171,050
24%	$85,526 to $163,300	$171,051 to $326,600

Quote: terapined

Played about 30min
Won 6 bucks
Tired of playing, want to be outside, not inside.
Onto the scenic drive

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: Mental

The minimum US tax rate is actually negative for those with an earned income credit. When I was a graduate student, I asked my professor to give me a taxable job instead a a tax-free job because my tax rate was negative. https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/individuals/earned-income-tax-credit

For people not eligible for the EIC, the minimum tax US rate is 0% and tens of millions of people pay at this 0% federal rate.
Here are some non-zero tax brackets:

2020 Federal Income Tax Brackets and Rates
Rate	For Single Individuals	For Married Individuals Filing Joint Returns
10%	Up to $9,875	        Up to $19,750
12%	$9,876 to $40,125	$19,751 to $80,250
22%	$40,126 to $85,525	$80,251 to $171,050
24%	$85,526 to $163,300	$171,051 to $326,600

so with the $12k/person standard tax deduction, you can have $21,875 in taxable income and still be in the 10% bracket.
ie: Roth conversions

yes, if under $12k/yr income then you can do a Roth conversion up to $12k to be tax free.
but i'm on Obamacare and to get subsides you need a minimum of $17,750 income. if less than that, then you go on medicaid.
with max subsidies, i pay $40/month with $100 deductible for great insurance. ($5 co-pay for doctors and physical therapy but 50% co-pay for hospitals and xrays/mri.)
But out of packet max is like $1000/yr so i dont care financially if i break my leg skiing.

so if i need to artificially inflate my income to $17,750 by Roth conversions then i might as well inflate it to around $21k.

Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: Mental

The minimum US tax rate is actually negative for those with an earned income credit. When I was a graduate student, I asked my professor to give me a taxable job instead a a tax-free job because my tax rate was negative. https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/individuals/earned-income-tax-credit

For people not eligible for the EIC, the minimum tax US rate is 0% and tens of millions of people pay at this 0% federal rate.
Here are some non-zero tax brackets:

2020 Federal Income Tax Brackets and Rates
Rate	For Single Individuals	For Married Individuals Filing Joint Returns
10%	Up to $9,875	        Up to $19,750
12%	$9,876 to $40,125	$19,751 to $80,250
22%	$40,126 to $85,525	$80,251 to $171,050
24%	$85,526 to $163,300	$171,051 to $326,600

so with the $12k/person standard tax deduction, you can have $21,875 in taxable income and still be in the 10% bracket.
ie: Roth conversions

yes, if under $12k/yr income then you can do a Roth conversion up to $12k to be tax free.
but i'm on Obamacare and to get subsides you need a minimum of $17,750 income. if less than that, then you go on medicaid.
with max subsidies, i pay $40/month with $100 deductible for great insurance. ($5 co-pay for doctors and physical therapy but 50% co-pay for hospitals and xrays/mri.)
But out of packet max is like $1000/yr so i dont care financially if i break my leg skiing.

so if i need to artificially inflate my income to $17,750 by Roth conversions then i might as well inflate it to around $21k.

WTF type of racket is that. I have to pay like 400/month for the worst possible plans on the obummacare marketplace with 5k deductible and I’m in my mid 30’s with no pre-existing or smoking..

Quote: terapined

They asked me if I had a National Park Pass
I said no
Paid 17
Asked how much for the pass
They said 80
I'm thinking I should have bought it

Quote: mcallister3200

Yeah I don’t make under 50k. Sounds like it’s basically a self employed.
people (who don’t get through employer) who make over 50k subsidize everyone else marketplace.

Quote: mcallister3200

Well, it’s an utter trash product when you pay full market when you were required to have a qualifying plan. I’ll just leave it at that.

Quote: Wizard

I paid a visit to the Red Rock today, in part to check on the Reversible Royal jackpots. Here is an update:

Bank by Starbucks:
Oct 19: $40,389
Dec 2: $40,741

Bank by buffet:
Oct 19: $73,860
Dec 2: $75,489

Here is my original article about these 105%+ games.

Quote: terapined

What cake
The scale model of the casino hotel?
That's edible?

Quote: gordonm888

When a progressive jackpot builds to a large amount, it is because no one has hit it for a long time. The money in the progressive jackpot is (mostly) an accumulation of a small fraction of previous wagers that were lost by previous customers. When the jackpot progresses to a high value it may be instantaneously +EV for players but as averaged over the cycle length of the progressive jackpot it is +EV for the house.

Of course the house knows this, and also knows that the size of the jackpot attracts attention and players. They know how to run a casino, where some of the contributors to this thread obviously do not.

Quote: AxelWolf

For the most part are right, however, there have been many 100%+ VP games (at reset) with a progressive on top of that. For example, full pay deuces wild with a progressive on the deuces and the Royal, 10/7 double bonus poker with a multi way prog. They might have those for a number of reasons, it could be a loss leader, they could know that the average person won't play a good enough strategy to gain an advantage, it could just be something they overlooked.

Quote: Mental

A panicked shutdown also occurred around me on a non-progressive $5 All American bank.

Quote: AxelWolf

What version?

Quote: Wizard

I think it's a cake.

Quote: Mental

$5 Full Pay All American at Trump Marina. Obviously, not recently.

Hand Name	Payout	Probability	Cycle	Variance	Return %
Royal	800	0.000023015	43450.1	14.69	1.8412%
Str_Flush	200	0.000141786	7052.86	5.61	2.8357%
Quads	40	0.002251772	444.094	3.42	9.0071%
Full_House	8	0.010981573	91.0616	0.54	8.7853%
Flush	8	0.015713038	63.6414	0.77	12.5704%
Straight	8	0.018426400	54.2699	0.90	14.7411%
Trips	3	0.068836822	14.5271	0.27	20.6510%
Two_Pair	1	0.119602446	8.36103	0.00	11.9602%
JOB	1	0.183299746	5.45554	0.00	18.3300%
Nada	0	0.580723403	1.72199	0.59	0.0000%
--	--	1.000000000	--	26.80	100.7221%

Quote: AxelWolf

They had a 50/250 coin 4oak version that was 103%

Quote: SOOPOO

That is the whole point of this thread! Duh....

Quote: Wizard

I paid a visit to the Red Rock today, in part to check on the Reversible Royal jackpots. Here is an update:

Bank by Starbucks:
Oct 19: $40,389
Dec 2: $40,741

Bank by buffet:
Oct 19: $73,860
Dec 2: $75,489

Quote: Mental

The only thing that makes sense to me is that the meters are much faster than 0,2%, but the games are hardly being played at all. I once played 17K hands in a single day all by myself. This implies that the machines are generally available, especially in off hours.

Quote: Mental

Yikes! How long ago was that?

I really enjoyed playing the strategy for the 100.7% version of AA, Sadly, all the games were uprights and $1 denomination or less, so I rarely played. I finally got to play a $5 console AA game, and it was gone within days.

In All American, you almost never hold zero cards, so you get a redraw RF only once in 69,764,912 hands. For NSUD, it is once in 4,159,463 hands. Here is a chart with probabilities of getting a RF holding N cards while playing optimum strategy.

# Held	Probability	% of RF	RF Cycle
0	0.00000001433	0.06%	69764912
1	0.00000054196	2.35%	1845161
2	0.00000290759	12.63%	343928
3	0.00001034926	44.97%	96625
4	0.00000766264	33.29%	130503
5	0.00000153908	6.69%	649740
Any	0.00002301486	100.00%	43450

Also, the version of AA paying 200 coins for quads has a common redundancy. If you are dealt a hand like Ac 2d 6h Th Qh, holding Th Qh or 6h Th Qh has the same ROI. Therefore, the royal cycle is not uniquely determined. JB's calculator and WinPoker say the royal cycle is 43,402, while I get 43,450.

Quote: mcallister3200

I was thinking they may have dumped a bunch of progressive money from closed/removed games into it after Covid shutdown. Bartop quarter progressive there was over 7500 when bars reopened, would have to have been over 15 cycles with normal meter if extra wasn’t moved into it.

Quote: Mental

I had just assumed that these were progressive games with fast meters. However, in the 44 days between reports, the first one has only moved 32 bets/day and the second one moved 74 bets/day. I was used to 2% progressives in the old days, and I guess that 0.5% might be considered a good rate these days. Another report suggested there are 6 machines per bank. If the meter moves 32 bets in a day, this rate must be more like 0.2%. That is, just 16K hands per day at 0.2% would move the meter 32 bets or $8 on the first game. The second game would be averaging 37K hands per day.

From another angle, if I assume both machines are overdue and 5M hands were played since last reset and the meter is 0.2%, then the first game only moved $2500 and the second only moved $5000. This would mean the reset levels are very high and very +EV at reset.

The only thing that makes sense to me is that the meters are much faster than 0,2%, but the games are hardly being played at all. I once played 17K hands in a single day all by myself. This implies that the machines are generally available, especially in off hours.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Mental

Yikes! How long ago was that?

I really enjoyed playing the strategy for the 100.7% version of AA, Sadly, all the games were uprights and $1 denomination or less, so I rarely played. I finally got to play a $5 console AA game, and it was gone within days.

In All American, you almost never hold zero cards, so you get a redraw RF only once in 69,764,912 hands. For NSUD, it is once in 4,159,463 hands. Here is a chart with probabilities of getting a RF holding N cards while playing optimum strategy.

# Held	Probability	% of RF	RF Cycle
0	0.00000001433	0.06%	69764912
1	0.00000054196	2.35%	1845161
2	0.00000290759	12.63%	343928
3	0.00001034926	44.97%	96625
4	0.00000766264	33.29%	130503
5	0.00000153908	6.69%	649740
Any	0.00002301486	100.00%	43450

Also, the version of AA paying 200 coins for quads has a common redundancy. If you are dealt a hand like Ac 2d 6h Th Qh, holding Th Qh or 6h Th Qh has the same ROI. Therefore, the royal cycle is not uniquely determined. JB's calculator and WinPoker say the royal cycle is 43,402, while I get 43,450.

This was pre 2000. They would pop up infrequently and not last very long, since they would get locked up for the most part. KC has some that lasted for some years in the .25 denomination since they were never locked up and few pros knew about them. That was one of the first things I know of that got killed because someone posted up all about it on Skip's page(now VPFree2)

That was the most difficult strategy I ever had to learn. I only had a few hours on a plane to learn it, I didn't learn it prefect, but it was good enough for for the promotion I went there for. Anything bigger than 4oak was doubled... That didn't last too long and it was difficult to get money into the casino since they had a $300 daily buy in limit back then.

Quote: Mental

This is a lot better for the casino than dumping it into a progressive that hits quickly.

Quote: rsactuary

I believe it is law that you have to put the progressive money into something that has about a similar probability of hitting ( +/- 5% range if I recall correctly).

Quote: Nevada Gaming Commission

5.110 In-house progressive payoff schedules.
As used in this section:
“Base amount” means the amount of a progressive payoff schedule initially offered before it
increases.
“Chair” means the Chair of the Nevada Gaming Control Board or the Chair’s designee.
“Incremental amount’’ means the difference between the amount of a progressive payoff schedule
and its base amount.
“Progressive payoff schedule” means a game or machine payoff schedule, including those
associated with contests, tournaments or promotions, that increases automatically over time or as the
game(s) or machine(s) are played.
The amount of a progressive payoff schedule shall be conspicuously displayed at or near the
games or machines to which the payoff schedule applies. Each licensee shall record the base amount of
each progressive payoff schedule when first exposed for play and subsequent to each payoff. At least once
a day each licensee shall log the amount of each progressive payoff schedule at the licensee’s
establishment except for those that can be paid directly from a slot machine’s hopper or those offered in
conjunction with an inter-casino linked system. Explanations for reading decreases shall be maintained with
the progressive logs. When the reduction is attributable to a payoff, the licensee shall record the payoff
form number on the log or have the number reasonably available.
A licensee may change the rate of progression of any progressive payoff schedule provided that
records of such changes are created.
A licensee may limit a progressive payoff schedule to an amount that is equal to or greater than
the amount of the payoff schedule when the limit is imposed. The licensee shall post a conspicuous notice
of the limit at or near the games(s) or machine(s) to which the limit applies.
A licensee shall not reduce the amount of a progressive payoff schedule or otherwise eliminate a
progressive payoff schedule unless:
A player wins the progressive payoff schedule;
The licensee adjusts the progressive payoff schedule to correct a malfunction or to prevent the
display of an amount greater than a limit imposed pursuant to subsection 4, and the licensee documents
the adjustment and the reasons for it;
The licensee distributes the entire incremental amount to another single progressive payoff
schedule on similar game(s) or machine(s) at the licensee’s establishment and:
The licensee documents the distribution;
Any game or slot machine offering the payoff schedule to which the licensee distributes the
incremental amount does not require that more money be played on a single play to win the payoff schedule
than the game or slot machine from which the incremental amount is distributed unless the incremental
amount distributed is increased in proportion to the increase in the amount of the wager required to win the
payoff schedule;
If from a slot machine, any slot machine offering the payoff schedule to which the incremental
amount is distributed complies with the minimum theoretical payout requirement of Regulation 14.040(1);
and
The distribution is completed within 30 days after the progressive payoff schedule is removed from
play or within such longer period as the Chair may for good cause approve;
For games other than slot machines, the incremental amount may be distributed within 90 days of
removal through a concluding contest, tournament or promotion and the contest, tournament or promotion
is conducted with a game(s) similar to the game(s) from which the amounts are distributed; or
The Chair, upon a showing of exceptional circumstances, approves a reduction, elimination,
distribution, or procedure not otherwise described in this subsection, which approval is confirmed in writing.
A progressive payoff schedule may be temporarily removed for a period of up to 30 days to allow
for the remodeling of the licensed gaming establishment, or for such longer period or other good cause as
the Chair may approve.
Except as otherwise provided by this section, the incremental amount of a progressive payoff
schedule is an obligation to the licensee’s patrons, and it shall be the responsibility of the licensee if the licensee ceases operation of the progressive game or slot machine for any reason, including a transfer of
ownership of the licensed gaming establishment, to arrange for satisfaction of that obligation in a manner
approved by the Chair.
Licensees shall maintain the records required by this section for at least five years after they are
made unless the Chair approves otherwise in writing.

Quote: rsactuary

I believe it is law that you have to put the progressive money into something that has about a similar probability of hitting ( +/- 5% range if I recall correctly).

Quote: tringlomane

That's big news to me. I've never heard/read of such a thing. And that is a tolerance that's very tight. It might be difficult to find an appropriate place to dump the jackpot with that standard. Nevada gaming regulation 5.110 says nothing of the sort, fwiw.
..................
The licensee distributes the entire incremental amount to another single progressive payoff schedule on similar game(s) or machine(s) at the licensee’s establishment and:
The licensee documents the distribution;
Any game or slot machine offering the payoff schedule to which the licensee distributes the incremental amount does not require that more money be played on a single play to win the payoff schedule than the game or slot machine from which the incremental amount is distributed ...

Quote: Mental

You did not give the entire list of available games.

Quote: Mental

You did not give the entire list of available games. It appears they have at least 1% better ROI than the nickel games, considering how much better the BP pay table is compared to the 94.1829% return for the nickel game.

Here are the ROI boosts that I calculate for different games with a 95,713 bet reversible SRF jackpot (478,568 credits):

Game	ROI Boost from SRF
7/5 Bdlx	5.484%
7/5 JB	5.498%
6/5 BP	5.510%
8/5 DDB	5.541%
8/5 TDB	5.574%

I am just guessing at available pay tables. TDB is boosted by 0.09% more than Bonus Deluxe. The boost depends on the structure of the pay table and the level of the SRF jackpot.

The game with the better base ROI is not necessarily the best game at any particular SRF jackpot level. It depends when the strategy changes turn on and how much this hurts the drain of the game. I don't know if this will ever flip the best game on a given progressive, but it might be enough to make the ROIs close enough that you will switch to a game that you prefer playing.

Quote: Wizard

Here are all the games on the 25-cent game. Returns do not count the progressive value above 800 per coin bet.

Base game	pay table	Return
bonus poker deluxe	7-5	96.25%
bonus poker	6-5	96.87%
double bonus	9-6-4	96.38%
double double bonus	8-5	96.79%
jacks or better	7-5	96.15%
triple double bonus	8-5	95.97%

Quote: 100xOdds

whats the bankroll needed to hit the .25 srf?
how about the nickel srf?

Quote: Greasyjohn

I didn’t read this entire thread but came upon this while checking out Vegas on the web:

“At about 12:28 a.m. on Nov. 30, a local guest playing a Double Double Bonus Progressive Reversible Royals machine at Red Rock Casino hit a sequential royal flush for a $278,318 payday.
The guest, who asked to remain anonymous, bet $2 denomination x 5, making the total bet of $10 to win the huge jackpot.”

Quote: SOOPOO

Did he have a really scraggly beard, kind of looking like a homeless man? Was he asking the waitresses weird questions?

What does the progressive re set to?

Quote: Wizard

Besides the two 5-cent 105%+ reversible royal games at the Red Rock, there is another positive 25-cent game.



This one is located near the circle bar in the middle of the casino.

Here is the return table, based on the best base pay table, 6-5 Bonus Poker.

Outcome	Prize	Probability	Return
Reversible Royal Flush	478,568	0.000001	0.058465
Royal Flush	4,000	0.000025	0.020137
Straight Flush	250	0.000105	0.005259
Four Aces	400	0.000203	0.016221
Four 2s, 3s, 4s	200	0.000525	0.020999
Four 5s thru Ks	125	0.001633	0.040819
Full House	30	0.011385	0.068309
Flush	25	0.010671	0.053356
Straight	20	0.011111	0.044446
Three of a Kind	15	0.074324	0.222972
Two Pair	10	0.129041	0.258081
Jacks or Better	5	0.214397	0.214397
All Other	0	0.546579	0.000000
Totals		1.000000	1.023461

While the return at 102.35% is not as high as the nickel games, the hourly expected win is higher!

Based on 1,000 hands per hour, the expected win per hour is $29.33.

On the buffet bank, it is $23.63.

How has nobody noticed this before (shut up Wiz!)?

Quote: terapined

Looks like the 5 cent machine by buffet entrance hit, progressive in the 5k range

Quote: terapined

Looks like the 5 cent machine by buffet entrance hit, progressive in the 5k range
5 cent by food court at 40,933.34