Face Up Pai Gow Poker Progressive Jackpot
Poll
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| No votes (0%) | |||
| | 8 votes (38.09%) | ||
| | 3 votes (14.28%) | ||
| | 3 votes (14.28%) | ||
| | 4 votes (19.04%) | ||
| | 1 vote (4.76%) | ||
| | 1 vote (4.76%) | ||
| | 5 votes (23.8%) | ||
| | 1 vote (4.76%) |
21 members have voted
| EVENT | PAYS | COMBINATIONS | PROBABILITY | RETURN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seven-card straight flush | $3,500,000 | 228 | 0.000001 | 5.177008 |
| Five aces | $350,000 | 1128 | 0.000007 | 2.561257 |
| Royal flush | $500 | 26092 | 0.000169 | 0.084636 |
| Straight flush | $100 | 184644 | 0.001198 | 0.119787 |
| Four of a kind | $75 | 307472 | 0.001995 | 0.149604 |
| Full house | $4 | 4188528 | 0.027173 | 0.108692 |
| Loser | $0 | 149434988 | 0.969456 | 0.000000 |
| Total | $0 | 154143080 | 1.000000 | 8.200984 |
The lower right cell shows the expected return from a $5 bet is $8.20. Not bad. That is a win of $3.20.
However, I show the expected loss on the base game is $0.68. Here I'm assuming a 2.72% house edge, based on a 5% commission and the dealer banking.
So, an expected win per hand of $3.20 - $0.68 = $2.52 per hand.
Of course, this is before taxes on the jackpot.
Remember, none of this is confirmed, yet.
The question for the poll is would you play with said jackpot? Multiple votes allowed.
Update: The pay table above is incorrect. It is corrected later in this tread.
As for playing it. I’m a no.
I hit the 7 card straight flush in June 2020 at Flamingo and wasn’t playing it the progressive. People acted like I should have gone and jumped off the roof or something. I told them had I been betting $5 on that spot each hand, I would have lost my measly $100 buy in and left the table LONG BEFORE I got the hand.
Quote: WizardI have an unconfirmed report the Fortune pai gow poker jackpot at Harrah's (Las Vegas) is at $3.5 million. I hear the minimum for the base bet is $25 and the side bet is a flat $5. There are various versions of the pay table, for but now I'll assume the one below.
EVENT PAYS COMBINATIONS PROBABILITY RETURN Seven-card straight flush $3,500,000 228 0.000001 5.177008 Five aces $350,000 1128 0.000007 2.561257 Royal flush $500 26092 0.000169 0.084636 Straight flush $100 184644 0.001198 0.119787 Four of a kind $75 307472 0.001995 0.149604 Full house $4 4188528 0.027173 0.108692 Loser $0 149434988 0.969456 0.000000 Total $0 154143080 1.000000 8.200984
The lower right cell shows the expected return from a $5 bet is $8.20. Not bad. That is a win of $3.20.
However, I show the expected loss on the base game is $0.68. Here I'm assuming a 2.72% house edge, based on a 5% commission and the dealer banking.
So, an expected win per hand of $3.20 - $0.68 = $2.52 per hand.
Of course, this is before taxes on the jackpot.
Remember, none of this is confirmed, yet.
The question for the poll is would you play with said jackpot? Multiple votes allowed.
link to original post
Assume $1k bankroll. What is your risk of ruin before hitting the bankroll? Gotta be over 99%?
At least the jackpot is life changing money for the majority of us. I don’t think I’d play it. If it gets to $3.6 million by next week maybe I’ll change my mind.
Quote: WizardI have an unconfirmed report the Fortune pai gow poker jackpot at Harrah's (Las Vegas) is at $3.5 million. I hear the minimum for the base bet is $25 and the side bet is a flat $5. There are various versions of the pay table, for but now I'll assume the one below.
My understanding is they have the three-tier jackpot, with separate jackpots for Seven-Card, Five Aces, and Royal Flush.
Here are the facts.
This opportunity is on Face Up Pai Gow Poker.
I can confirm it is at Caesars, Cromwell, Linq, Flamingo and Harrah's. I did not check the properties south of Flamingo or the Rio.
The base bet required was $15 or $25 at all properties except Caesars, where it was $50 and $100.
Here is my analysis of just the $5 progressive bet. This is based on the jackpots about 11AM on Oct 18, 2022.
| EVENT | PAYS | COMBINATIONS | PROBABILITY | RETURN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seven-card straight flush | $3,832,836 | 228 | 0.000001 | 5.669322 |
| Five aces | $155,924 | 1128 | 0.000007 | 1.141036 |
| Royal flush | $3,595 | 26092 | 0.000169 | 0.608458 |
| Straight flush | $500 | 184644 | 0.001198 | 0.598937 |
| Four of a kind | $375 | 307472 | 0.001995 | 0.748019 |
| Full house | $20 | 4188528 | 0.027173 | 0.543460 |
| Loser | $0 | 149434988 | 0.969456 | 0.000000 |
| Total | 154143080 | 1.000000 | 9.309231 |
The lower right cell shows the expected "win" is $9.31. However, wins are on a "for one" basis. After deducting for the $5 bet, the expected profit is $4.31 per hand.
The house edge on the base game is 1.81%.
The following table shows the overall expected player win per hand at various minimum bets on the base bet. The house edge column is relative to the sum of both bets.
| Base bet | Value per hand | Player advantage |
|---|---|---|
| $15 | $4.04 | 20.19% |
| $25 | $3.86 | 12.86% |
| $50 | $3.41 | 6.19% |
| $100 | $2.50 | 2.38% |
An expected win of $4.04 per hand ain't bad. Assuming 30 hands per hour, that's an expected win per hour of $121.20.
I leave it to the reader to make adjustments for taxes.
Quote: WizardI went down to the Strip today to investigate this, as I love to deliver an advantage play on a silver platter as much as I can.
Here are the facts.
This opportunity is on Face Up Pai Gow Poker.
I can confirm it is at Caesars, Cromwell, Linq, Flamingo and Harrah's. I did not check the properties south of Flamingo or the Rio.
The base bet required was $15 or $25 at all properties except Caesars, where it was $50 and $100.
Here is my analysis of just the $5 progressive bet. This is based on the jackpots about 11AM on Oct 18, 2022.
EVENT PAYS COMBINATIONS PROBABILITY RETURN Seven-card straight flush $3,832,836 228 0.000001 5.669322 Five aces $155,924 1128 0.000007 1.141036 Royal flush $3,595 26092 0.000169 0.608458 Straight flush $500 184644 0.001198 0.598937 Four of a kind $375 307472 0.001995 0.748019 Full house $20 4188528 0.027173 0.543460 Loser $0 149434988 0.969456 0.000000 Total 154143080 1.000000 9.309231
The lower right cell shows the expected "win" is $9.31. However, wins are on a "for one" basis. After deducting for the $5 bet, the expected profit is $4.31 per hand.
The house edge on the base game is 1.81%.
The following table shows the overall expected player win per hand at various minimum bets on the base bet. The house edge column is relative to the sum of both bets.
Base bet Value per hand Player advantage $15 $4.04 20.19% $25 $3.86 12.86% $50 $3.41 6.19% $100 $2.50 2.38%
An expected win of $4.04 per hand ain't bad. Assuming 30 hands per hour, that's an expected win per hour of $121.20.
I leave it to the reader to make adjustments for taxes.
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What would Kelly say? If I have a $1000 bankroll, is it playable? $10,000? Assume the $15 base bet.
Quote: SOOPOO
What would Kelly say? If I have a $1000 bankroll, is it playable? $10,000? Assume the $15 base bet.
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Looking at just the progressive jackpot bet, the optimal Kelly wager is 0.00000212 * bankroll.
So, if you had a $10,000 bankroll, you should bet 2 cents on the progressive, assuming you could.
To justify the $5 progressive bet, you would need a bankroll north of $2,353,598.25.
Quote: WizardQuote: SOOPOO
What would Kelly say? If I have a $1000 bankroll, is it playable? $10,000? Assume the $15 base bet.
link to original post
Looking at just the progressive jackpot bet, the optimal Kelly wager is 0.00000212 * bankroll.
So, if you had a $10,000 bankroll, you should bet 2 cents on the progressive, assuming you could.
To justify the $5 progressive bet, you would need a bankroll north of $2,353,598.25.
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Thank you. I figured as much. Just a reminder that because an opportunity is +EV it does not mean it should be played.
My friend Andy texted me moments ago saying he hit a Royal playing it paying $500 for a $1 bet. Sounds like a different casino which has the dollar bet on the flashing circle.
Quote: SOOPOOMy friend Andy texted me moments ago saying he hit a Royal playing it paying $500 for a $1 bet. Sounds like a different casino which has the dollar bet on the flashing circle.
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Drinks are on Andy!
A bit off topic, but I calculate the expected time for the jackpot to hit is 31 days.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: WizardQuote: SOOPOO
What would Kelly say? If I have a $1000 bankroll, is it playable? $10,000? Assume the $15 base bet.
link to original post
Looking at just the progressive jackpot bet, the optimal Kelly wager is 0.00000212 * bankroll.
So, if you had a $10,000 bankroll, you should bet 2 cents on the progressive, assuming you could.
To justify the $5 progressive bet, you would need a bankroll north of $2,353,598.25.
link to original post
Thank you. I figured as much. Just a reminder that because an opportunity is +EV it does not mean it should be played.
My friend Andy texted me moments ago saying he hit a Royal playing it paying $500 for a $1 bet. Sounds like a different casino which has the dollar bet on the flashing circle.
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I wouldn't go out of my way to play it, even with more than the "minimum estimated required bank-roll*** " .
***: Depending on their RoR "tolerances", this will be different person to person, but I would want at least $2 million and preferably $4.5 million as my bank-roll, if I wanted to play it seriously.
But I would still play it "for fun" if I happened to be at that casino, to try and "fluke it".
----
Update:
I voted, "No - hourly too low" and "... Too volatile" .
Quote: WizardIn other news, I looked at the Kelly question in more depth. I now find this is a good Kelly bet with a bankroll of $500,000 at a $15 base bet and $600,000 if the base bet is $25.
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That may be the correct "Kelly bet sizing", but I have been using the "expected drop" before hitting the "7-card SF" to work out a rough chance of "busting out" / RoR for each bank-roll (because I am not skilled/ good enough to use any other method, at the moment).
Note: This is just based on the $5 progressive (I haven't taken into account the base game, so the bank would need to be even higher).
Anyway, below are my "expected drop method - busting out" figures (I was using 27.2% as the expected drop figure, even though that is not the exact figure).
$500,000 bank: ~58.05% chance of not hitting the 7-card SF, before "busting out".
$1,000,000: ~33.70% chance ...
$2,000,000: ~11.35% chance...
$4,500,000: ~ 2/267 chance ...
----
Edit:
According to an online calculator that I used, the standard deviation is ~936.17 (is that correct*** ?).
***: Even if that SD figure is correct, I am also not skilled / knowledgeable enough to be able to use that info, anyway.
. Your last sentence sums it up. As long as you stop playing the moment the jackpot is hit, in actuality, your EV goes up minute by minute, as the jackpot goes up minute by minute.Quote: GialmereSince there's only the one jackpot up for grabs, shouldn't the number of other players vying for the exact same prize also be factored in? Would it not be like bingo where you're better off playing in a half empty hall as opposed to one filled to the rafters with competing players? Or do these calculations merely reflect the best RoR you can expect at the exact moment you place the bet?
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What exactly should I do? Play the minimum each hand? or ...?
Edit: I just read Wizard's post. $500K bankroll needed for minimum? So I have to open a new credit line at crappy Harrah's?
Quote: MDawgEdit: I just read Wizard's post. $500K bankroll needed for minimum? So I have to open a new credit line at crappy Harrah's?
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$500K is not what you need for the bet to make mathematical sense if your goal is to grow your bankroll as fast as possible. However, if you do badly and fall below that $500K, you should quit playing it. I don't want to get into a whole lecture on Kelly Criterion.
I figure, on average, you can expect to lose $1.1 million before winning the jackpot (assuming nobody else hits it first). That, I think, is a better measure of the bankroll you'll need. Even with that, there is a 1/e (36.8%) chance of not hitting the jackpot before you lose the $1.1 million
Quote: GialmereSince there's only the one jackpot up for grabs, shouldn't the number of other players vying for the exact same prize also be factored in? Would it not be like bingo where you're better off playing in a half empty hall as opposed to one filled to the rafters with competing players? Or do these calculations merely reflect the best RoR you can expect at the exact moment you place the bet?
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The jackpot is won if the player hand is a seven-card straight flush. Thus, jackpot sharing is not an issue. The number of competing players is also not an issue in terms of the value of an individual bet.
Quote: MDawgSo I have to open a new credit line at crappy Harrah's?
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Heh. You have a point but, to be fair to Harrah's, they also spread Pai Gow Tiles making them okay in my book.
Quote: GialmereYou have a point but, to be fair to Harrah's, they also spread Pai Gow Tiles making them okay in my book.
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When I went there to investigate the Mega jackpot, I noticed they seemed to have removed their tile game, unfortunately. Speaking of which, it's also gone at both the Venetian and Palazzo, although maybe that's old news.
Quote: WizardQuote: GialmereYou have a point but, to be fair to Harrah's, they also spread Pai Gow Tiles making them okay in my book.
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When I went there to investigate the Mega jackpot, I noticed they seemed to have removed their tile game, unfortunately. Speaking of which, it's also gone at both the Venetian and Palazzo, although maybe that's old news.
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No tiles at Harrahs???? Is there anywhere else on the strip I can play for $25?
Also, I will be there in 4 weeks. Are you saying it’s about 50/50 it’s hit by then?
Will someone update this thread if it’s hit? I’ll probably hear about it somewhere else but you never know.
Quote: FinsRuleNo tiles at Harrahs???? Is there anywhere else on the strip I can play for $25?
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That's what I'm saying. I just learned today there is no tiles at the Rio either. At the Palace Station there were two tables open on a Friday afternoon at $25 and $50 minimums.
The Mega jackpot at 1:47 PM on 10/21 was $3,922,619. That means it is going up just under $30,000 a day.
I can confirm the Rio is linked to the same progressive.
Played at all ceasars properties not including the palace or PH
min bets were $25 with$5 progressive at the following: Flamingo-Linq-Harrahs-Cromwell-Paris
min bets were $50 with $5 progressive at Bally's and Ceasars Palace (word of mouth)
no more 15 bets after the 4M mark!
Quote: xpwnx5My Goodness, its up to 4.05M spent 2k trying to hit a progressive million this weekend with the lady! hit two straight flushes and quads, One Card off a Royal, and One card off the 7 card Straight flush. the attempt was there, went home broke, still want to go try again!
Played at all ceasars properties not including the palace or PH
min bets were $25 with$5 progressive at the following: Flamingo-Linq-Harrahs-Cromwell-Paris
min bets were $50 with $5 progressive at Bally's and Ceasars Palace (word of mouth)
no more 15 bets after the 4M mark!
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Welcome to the forum. Two SF’s, one quads, and still home broke! But good try. Must have run pretty badly otherwise.
Quote: FinsRuleTwo weeks until my trip. Any update on whether this progressive is still around?
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It was at $3.9 million a week ago. Hopefully you’ll get a more recent update. I played a few hands at Harrah’s. Felt kind of foolish like buying a bunch of $5 lotto tickets.
I plan to get an exact update on Friday.
Quote: WizardI did a hike with a Caesars dealer today. She said as of a few days ago the big progressive has not been hit and is over $4.2 million.
I plan to get an exact update on Friday.
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Thank you! I will be in town Saturday. I’m a little nervous it might be tough to get a seat.
Quote: FinsRuleQuote: WizardI did a hike with a Caesars dealer today. She said as of a few days ago the big progressive has not been hit and is over $4.2 million.
I plan to get an exact update on Friday.
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Thank you! I will be in town Saturday. I’m a little nervous it might be tough to get a seat.
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Try Harrah’s. They usually seem to have the most Pai Gow tables.
Here are the jackpots as of about 5:00 PM Nov 18.
I played at a $25 table at Harrah's. I easily found a table with a single spot available. I was told somebody got a seven-card straight flush recently at the Flamingo, but didn't make the side bet.
Based on the rate of increase since this post, the jackpot is increasing $29,758 a day, but let's just call it $30,000. So, it should hit $5 million on Nov 27.
Quote: Wizard
I was told somebody got a seven-card straight flush recently at the Flamingo, but didn't make the side bet.
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I wonder how the table reacted. Must have sucked to see that and know you missed your chance at the big pot.
Quote: AitchTheLetterQuote: Wizard
I was told somebody got a seven-card straight flush recently at the Flamingo, but didn't make the side bet.
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I wonder how the table reacted. Must have sucked to see that and know you missed your chance at the big pot.
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I’m not sure how it is right now because the pot is so high, but in my experience most players do not play the $5 progressive bet at Caesars properties.
Quote: FinsRuleI’m about to takeoff on my flight right now. Hopefully I’ll hit the progressive some time tonight.
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May the odds be ever in your favor.
I've never bothered with this game or even know anything about it, so I'll watch this video to see if I can learn some basics.
PAI GOW POKER!!! OMG QUADS ON THE MAX BET!! CRAZY SESSION!! - All Casino Action - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ySfhYvbCzI
Quote: ChumpChangeThat 5 Aces Major JP seems enticing. What are the chances of hitting that one? I'll assume hitting the Minor JP for anything over $1500 is taxable on a $5 bet.
I've never bothered with this game or even know anything about it, so I'll watch this video to see if I can learn some basics.
PAI GOW POKER!!! OMG QUADS ON THE MAX BET!! CRAZY SESSION!! - All Casino Action - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ySfhYvbCzI
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It was hit three hours ago at Linq for about 115K. He took taxes out right away and I think it was about 87K.
Seven-card straight flush: $5,626,390.50
Five aces: $25,955.61
Royal flush: $3,257.75
By itself, the progressive has an expected return of $10.95. Deducting the $5 bet amount, the expected net win per hand is $5.95. That amounts to a 119% player advantage!
Here is the overall player advantage by bet amount in the base game:
$15: 28.41%
$25: 18.34%
$50: 9.18%
$100: 3.95%
Keep in mind that of the $10.95 expected win on the side bet, $8.32 is from the Mega jackpot. Assuming you don't hit it, you can expect to lose $2.37 per hand on it.
The jackpot is going up about $32,300 per day.
Quote: FinsRuleQuote: ChumpChangeThat 5 Aces Major JP seems enticing. What are the chances of hitting that one? I'll assume hitting the Minor JP for anything over $1500 is taxable on a $5 bet.
I've never bothered with this game or even know anything about it, so I'll watch this video to see if I can learn some basics.
PAI GOW POKER!!! OMG QUADS ON THE MAX BET!! CRAZY SESSION!! - All Casino Action - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ySfhYvbCzI
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It was hit three hours ago at Linq for about 115K. He took taxes out right away and I think it was about 87K.
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It's that 24% tax withholding on jackpots over $5,000.
Here is a picture of the sign, taken Dec 16, 2022.
Quote: ams288Are they jacking up the table minimums?
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I don't know. I'd be interested to hear an update on that and seat availability.
Quote: Wizard
Here is a picture of the sign, taken Dec 16, 2022.
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Are any of you concerned about the "$50,000 MAXIMUM AGGREGATE PER PLAYER" verbiage on the sign?
Dog Hand
Quote: DogHandQuote: Wizard
Here is a picture of the sign, taken Dec 16, 2022.
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Are any of you concerned about the "$50,000 MAXIMUM AGGREGATE PER PLAYER" verbiage on the sign?
Dog Hand
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Yikes! I think deserves a formal ‘Wizard’ investigation!
Quote: DogHandQuote: Wizard
Here is a picture of the sign, taken Dec 16, 2022.
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Are any of you concerned about the "$50,000 MAXIMUM AGGREGATE PER PLAYER" verbiage on the sign?
Dog Hand
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That's nothing new in Vegas. The aggregate does not apply to the progressive.
Quote: DogHandAre any of you concerned about the "$50,000 MAXIMUM AGGREGATE PER PLAYER" verbiage on the sign?
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Good catch. That's normally not on a single bet size wager like this. I think it's inclusion is a holdover from some other side bet sign. If a casino invoked that to avoid paying the Mega jackpot, it would not be good and I think they would lose if it went to Gaming.
Quote: WizardQuote: ams288Are they jacking up the table minimums?
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I don't know. I'd be interested to hear an update on that and seat availability.
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There are some people chasing it on the VMB and they are reporting minimum $25 at the low end CET casinos and $50 at the high end. So maybe one notch greater than normal.
