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NicksGamingStuff
NicksGamingStuff
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December 17th, 2022 at 11:18:42 PM permalink
In the 15 years I have been old enough to gamble, I have only seen one 7 card straight flush and it had a joker, this was back in 2009/2010 at Silver Legacy in Reno, but then again I don't play much anymore. This is the kind of bet I bring some $$$ expecting to lose, but hope to win, but then again, that is most players... yay!
avianrandy
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December 18th, 2022 at 2:36:26 AM permalink
Quote: calwatch

Quote: Wizard

Quote: ams288

Are they jacking up the table minimums?
link to original post



I don't know. I'd be interested to hear an update on that and seat availability.
link to original post



There are some people chasing it on the VMB and they are reporting minimum $25 at the low end CET casinos and $50 at the high end. So maybe one notch greater than normal.
link to original post

supply and demand the closest casino to me did that when the progressive got upwards of a million dollars.limited number of seats and everyone wanted their shot.progressive bet was $5 instead of$1. Is the progressive bet for this monster $5 also?my local casino doesn't offer paigow. This was 6 card progressive lined to 3 card poker and I believe crazy 4 poker
avianrandy
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December 18th, 2022 at 2:49:05 AM permalink
Quote: calwatch

Quote: Wizard

Quote: ams288

Are they jacking up the table minimums?
link to original post



I don't know. I'd be interested to hear an update on that and seat availability.
link to original post



There are some people chasing it on the VMB and they are reporting minimum $25 at the low end CET casinos and $50 at the high end. So maybe one notch greater than normal.
link to original post[ delete double post
Wiggins
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December 18th, 2022 at 3:56:57 AM permalink
My buddy played a long session at PH Friday night. He says there were plenty of $25 tables and seats were always available
Deucekies
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December 18th, 2022 at 11:39:30 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: DogHand

Are any of you concerned about the "$50,000 MAXIMUM AGGREGATE PER PLAYER" verbiage on the sign?
link to original post



Good catch. That's normally not on a single bet size wager like this. I think it's inclusion is a holdover from some other side bet sign. If a casino invoked that to avoid paying the Mega jackpot, it would not be good and I think they would lose if it went to Gaming.
link to original post



I'm pretty sure the $50,000 aggregate applies to the Fortune Bonus.

0% chance it applies to the progressive, I'm pretty sure they've given away Major Jackpots in excess of $50,000 recently.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
ams288
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December 18th, 2022 at 12:29:44 PM permalink
Yeah, that $50,000 only applies to the fortune bonus, and excludes other players’ envy bonuses as well. So if someone bets $10 on the fortune and hit the 7 card straight flush no joker, they get $50k and the other players still get their envy.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
SOOPOO
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December 18th, 2022 at 2:19:22 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

Yeah, that $50,000 only applies to the fortune bonus, and excludes other players’ envy bonuses as well. So if someone bets $10 on the fortune and hit the 7 card straight flush no joker, they get $50k and the other players still get their envy.
link to original post



Can you remind us which similar jackpot you hit? Was it the 7 card SF? How much you made? And how long from the time your cards were turned over until you got paid?
ams288
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December 18th, 2022 at 2:50:57 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ams288

Yeah, that $50,000 only applies to the fortune bonus, and excludes other players’ envy bonuses as well. So if someone bets $10 on the fortune and hit the 7 card straight flush no joker, they get $50k and the other players still get their envy.
link to original post



Can you remind us which similar jackpot you hit? Was it the 7 card SF? How much you made? And how long from the time your cards were turned over until you got paid?
link to original post



7 card straight flush no joker.

Just had $1 on the fortune, so won $8,000. No one else at the table so no one got envy.

Didn’t take long to get paid at all.

Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
calwatch
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avianrandy
December 18th, 2022 at 2:52:37 PM permalink
Quote: avianrandy

supply and demand the closest casino to me did that when the progressive got upwards of a million dollars.limited number of seats and everyone wanted their shot.progressive bet was $5 instead of$1. Is the progressive bet for this monster $5 also?my local casino doesn't offer paigow. This was 6 card progressive lined to 3 card poker and I believe crazy 4 poker
link to original post



This is a $5 progressive also. Yesterday at $5,666,666 and if no one hits should be at $6,000,000 in the new year.
ddloml
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December 18th, 2022 at 6:24:45 PM permalink
Ironically, with the dealer Ace High, you pushed your regular bet. Congrats on the bonus win!
SOOPOO
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December 18th, 2022 at 7:06:56 PM permalink
Quote: ddloml

Ironically, with the dealer Ace High, you pushed your regular bet. Congrats on the bonus win!
link to original post



He wasn’t winning no matter what. All he could have is a J -10 up top anyway. I’ve had 4 Royal flushes and didn’t win any of those hands.

It really is a pretty picture!
jmills
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December 30th, 2022 at 7:32:37 PM permalink
Any update on this progressive? Any chance it will be unhit by the time I'm out there in 3 weeks?
SOOPOO
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December 30th, 2022 at 8:24:01 PM permalink
Quote: jmills

Any update on this progressive? Any chance it will be unhit by the time I'm out there in 3 weeks?
link to original post



Was playing NOT at a Caesars property. Guy announces he has 6 straight flush cards and needs J of Hearts to hit. He turns over for all to see…. J of Spades. He can play straight to the J with KQ. Or flush with KJ…. He is moaning that he probably won’t even win his main bet. At my local casino the bonus would have only paid him $12.5k on that bet. But each envy guy would get $1k!

No way to tell if it will still be unhit by the time you get there. When you win it please post a picture….
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 31st, 2022 at 12:37:28 AM permalink
I hear it's over 6M.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
dogayay554
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December 31st, 2022 at 1:15:42 PM permalink
It's at $6.1M currently, with $39K in the Major and $4K in the Minor. $50 table minimum at Rio, supervisor said that it'll be at $50 "all weekend."

Two weeks ago, took a look at Harrah's, Linq, Flamingo, Cromwell, Horseshoe, Paris, Planet Hollywood. All were at $50 (even Linq!) except for Harrah's, which had $25s.

Rio has it also on a face down Pai Gow table, which was at $25 earlier this morning. Is playing face down at $25 more advantageous than playing face up at $50?
Wiggins
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December 31st, 2022 at 3:27:47 PM permalink
Friday, Dec 30, busy nighttime hours:

Caesars: 4 tables, $200/$300 min
Paris: 4-5 tables, $50. very crowded
Cromwell: $50, only 2 tables
Planet Hollywood: 7-8 tables, all $100
Wiggins
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dogayay554
December 31st, 2022 at 3:38:54 PM permalink
Quote: dogayay554

Is playing face down at $25 more advantageous than playing face up at $50?




Yes. Approximate numbers:

Face Up house edge is 1.8%, traditional face down is about 2.6%. $25 face down expected loss per hand is 65 cents, $50 face up is 90 cents.
Wizard
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January 1st, 2023 at 7:18:07 PM permalink
A picture taken today (Jan 1) shows a jackpot of $6,232,237.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
SOOPOO
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January 1st, 2023 at 7:19:19 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

A picture taken today (Jan 1) shows a jackpot of $6,232,237.
link to original post

. Remind me, what are the odds of a single hand being the jackpot winner?
3for3
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January 4th, 2023 at 5:11:57 PM permalink
Played this for about 3 hours over the past 2 days. $25 with $5 Jackpot. 79 hands, hit one FH and a SF, so I actually beat the jackpot take for $125. However, ran bad on the main bet, -375, vs expectation of about -$36.

The jackpot was about 100K higher than above; going up about 35K per day at this point.
Wizard
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January 4th, 2023 at 11:02:44 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Remind me, what are the odds of a single hand being the jackpot winner?
link to original post



1 in 676,066.

Here is a picture of the sign, taken on Jan 1.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
SOOPOO
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January 5th, 2023 at 6:55:44 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: SOOPOO

Remind me, what are the odds of a single hand being the jackpot winner?
link to original post



1 in 676,066.

Here is a picture of the sign, taken on Jan 1.


link to original post



Thanks. I thought it was much rarer than that! I have some vague recollection of that number being the odds of a dealt Royal. 1 in 649,740. But that is only 5 cards being dealt…. Coincidental that odds are so close…
Wizard
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January 5th, 2023 at 8:41:29 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Thanks. I thought it was much rarer than that! I have some vague recollection of that number being the odds of a dealt Royal. 1 in 649,740. But that is only 5 cards being dealt…. Coincidental that odds are so close…
link to original post



Good comparison about the dealt royal. The odds of that are 1 in 649,740, to be exact. That is definitely has an achievable feeling to it. I had a dealt royal in video poker once.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DRich
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January 5th, 2023 at 1:57:41 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: SOOPOO

Thanks. I thought it was much rarer than that! I have some vague recollection of that number being the odds of a dealt Royal. 1 in 649,740. But that is only 5 cards being dealt…. Coincidental that odds are so close…
link to original post



Good comparison about the dealt royal. The odds of that are 1 in 649,740, to be exact. That is definitely has an achievable feeling to it. I had a dealt royal in video poker once.
link to original post



I have been fortunate enough to have had a few dealt royals. Unfortunately, never on a multi-hand game. I played a lot of 50 play and introduced a friend of mine to an advantage play on it and he got a dealt royal on his first day playing it.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
3for3
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January 5th, 2023 at 9:49:44 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: SOOPOO

Thanks. I thought it was much rarer than that! I have some vague recollection of that number being the odds of a dealt Royal. 1 in 649,740. But that is only 5 cards being dealt…. Coincidental that odds are so close…
link to original post



Good comparison about the dealt royal. The odds of that are 1 in 649,740, to be exact. That is definitely has an achievable feeling to it. I had a dealt royal in video poker once.
link to original post



The difference is that a reasonably fast VP player plays 800 hands per hour. PG is more like 20-30 hands an hour.
SOOPOO
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January 6th, 2023 at 5:34:00 AM permalink
Quote: 3for3

Quote: Wizard

Quote: SOOPOO

Thanks. I thought it was much rarer than that! I have some vague recollection of that number being the odds of a dealt Royal. 1 in 649,740. But that is only 5 cards being dealt…. Coincidental that odds are so close…
link to original post



Good comparison about the dealt royal. The odds of that are 1 in 649,740, to be exact. That is definitely has an achievable feeling to it. I had a dealt royal in video poker once.
link to original post



The difference is that a reasonably fast VP player plays 800 hands per hour. PG is more like 20-30 hands an hour.
link to original post



I guess the important info needed to analyze what the likelihood of it being hit on any day might be available to someone….
1. How many spots at all the Caesar’s tables that have this side bet available exist?
2. Given the 24 hours in a day, what % of the time is the side bet being bet per spot available?
3. How many hands per hour are dealt on average?

Under normal circumstances, I’m that guy that doesn’t bet the $5 progressive. I think if I was in Vegas now I’d be betting it.
Wizard
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January 6th, 2023 at 11:03:04 AM permalink
Somebody on my Live Stream asked how big one's bankroll should be to go after the Face Up PGP progressive.

I assume a $50 required bet in the base game and jackpots of $5000, $20000, and $6.2M.

After doing the Kelly calculations, I find that if we don't consider taxes, the player should have a $1.1 million bankroll. If we assume 37% taxes on the Mega, I show a bankroll of $1.75 million.

I would be interested to hear thoughts on where the Minor and Major tend to average at or where they reseed at. I think the Minor reseeds at $2,500, but could use a confirmation.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
SOOPOO
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January 6th, 2023 at 12:00:26 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Somebody on my Live Stream asked how big one's bankroll should be to go after the Face Up PGP progressive.

I assume a $50 required bet in the base game and jackpots of $5000, $20000, and $6.2M.

After doing the Kelly calculations, I find that if we don't consider taxes, the player should have a $1.1 million bankroll. If we assume 37% taxes on the Mega, I show a bankroll of $1.75 million.

I would be interested to hear thoughts on where the Minor and Major tend to average at or where they reseed at. I think the Minor reseeds at $2,500, but could use a confirmation.
link to original post



It’s not just bankroll. Your math construct does not factor in the value or ‘cost’ of the time involved. I think there are many here who have that bankroll, but the lost time would make it not worth it.

Also, since there are places where the minimum is $25, and I think the extra work for you is minimal, why not do a calculation using $25 minimum as well?
TinMan
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January 6th, 2023 at 12:07:10 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Somebody on my Live Stream asked how big one's bankroll should be to go after the Face Up PGP progressive.

I assume a $50 required bet in the base game and jackpots of $5000, $20000, and $6.2M.

After doing the Kelly calculations, I find that if we don't consider taxes, the player should have a $1.1 million bankroll. If we assume 37% taxes on the Mega, I show a bankroll of $1.75 million.

I would be interested to hear thoughts on where the Minor and Major tend to average at or where they reseed at. I think the Minor reseeds at $2,500, but could use a confirmation.
link to original post




I believe you quoted ~$100 loss per hour for a $50 game when the jackpot isn’t hit. Wow. I suppose if I had the bankroll and time I might camp out at a table and take a shot but good god that’s a lot to lose per hour hoping for life changing money. It’s small comfort to know you had +EV if you end up blowing $100k chasing it. Explains why $1.75mm bankroll suggested.

I remember when the reversed Royal VP thing came up last year thinking it was a lot of money to lose hoping for the big payoff but this is even higher.
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
calwatch
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January 6th, 2023 at 3:14:19 PM permalink
When I go to Vegas later this month, I plan to take a shot at it, much like I would spending $10 on Powerball or Mega Millions. I would be a bad gambler not to, but playing at this for a long period of time unless you had a team is just asking for disappointment. It feels like the old Lion's Share machine: https://www.casino.org/vitalvegas/the-whole-lions-share-thing-was-a-bit-of-a-sham/#
Wizard
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January 6th, 2023 at 6:16:41 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Also, since there are places where the minimum is $25, and I think the extra work for you is minimal, why not do a calculation using $25 minimum as well?
link to original post



I hear it's tough to find a $25 table any longer. Besides, that is not very significant compared to the huge player advantage of the progressive.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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January 6th, 2023 at 6:20:28 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I would be interested to hear thoughts on where the Minor and Major tend to average at or where they reseed at. I think the Minor reseeds at $2,500, but could use a confirmation.
link to original post



I hear the Mini (royal flush) resets at $2,500 and the Major (five aces) resets at $10,000.

I have a photo taken today with the following jackpots:
Mini: "pending"
Major: $47,112
Mega: $6,396,823

Last edited by: Wizard on Jan 6, 2023
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
SOOPOO
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January 7th, 2023 at 5:37:54 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: Wizard

I would be interested to hear thoughts on where the Minor and Major tend to average at or where they reseed at. I think the Minor reseeds at $2,500, but could use a confirmation.
link to original post



I hear the Mini (royal flush) resets at $2,500 and the Major (five aces) resets at $10,000.

I have a photo taken today with the following jackpots:
Mini: "pending"
Major: $47,112
Mega: $6,396,823


link to original post



You heard it here first. Jackpot hits at $7,777,777.77. I’m sure there won’t be any conspiracy theories…
Johnzimbo
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January 7th, 2023 at 10:39:25 PM permalink
Vital Vegas says the prog got hit at Flamingo
Wizard
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January 8th, 2023 at 3:47:54 AM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

Vital Vegas says the prog got hit at Flamingo
link to original post



I hear the same thing from a private source.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Johnzimbo
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January 8th, 2023 at 6:26:58 AM permalink
Buddy saw it reset at $300,000
jmills
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January 8th, 2023 at 8:25:26 AM permalink
Oh well. At least I'll be able to find a table and won't feel the need to pony out for the progressive.
dogayay554
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January 8th, 2023 at 11:32:54 AM permalink
And maybe back to $15 limits. Unless the market sustains the $25 tables... It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next week or so.
ams288
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January 8th, 2023 at 11:46:28 AM permalink
Lots of security was called in while it was paid out.

Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
SOOPOO
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January 8th, 2023 at 12:30:24 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

Lots of security was called in while it was paid out.


link to original post

. Rumor has it you took it in small bills? And when you filled out tax form you signed….. ‘George Santos?’
DRich
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January 8th, 2023 at 1:12:30 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ams288

Lots of security was called in while it was paid out.


link to original post

. Rumor has it you took it in small bills? And when you filled out tax form you signed….. ‘George Santos?’
link to original post



I would be shocked if they took it in cash.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ams288
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January 8th, 2023 at 3:34:32 PM permalink
The guy who hit it is @TRZPoker on Twitter, he’s been tweeting about it.

Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
Wizard
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January 8th, 2023 at 4:29:04 PM permalink
Let the record show it hit at $6,443,401. I wonder what he tipped. According to my tip formula for jackpots, the appropriate amount is $5,076, but I'd round down to an even 5K.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
UP84
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January 8th, 2023 at 4:53:01 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

Lots of security was called in while it was paid out.


link to original post

Security theater.
NicksGamingStuff
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January 8th, 2023 at 4:55:47 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Let the record show it hit at $6,443,401. I wonder what he tipped. According to my tip formula for jackpots, the appropriate amount is $5,076, but I'd round down to an even 5K.
link to original post



If I hit that jackpot I would tip 1M.
rsactuary
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January 8th, 2023 at 5:06:28 PM permalink
Quote: NicksGamingStuff

Quote: Wizard

Let the record show it hit at $6,443,401. I wonder what he tipped. According to my tip formula for jackpots, the appropriate amount is $5,076, but I'd round down to an even 5K.
link to original post



If I hit that jackpot I would tip 1M.
link to original post



Total Win: 6,443,401
Less Tax: -2,255,190 (est 35%)
Net Win: 4,188,210

And you're going to tip $1 Million?????
Wizard
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January 8th, 2023 at 5:15:37 PM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

Total Win: 6,443,401
Less Tax: -2,255,190 (est 35%)
Net Win: 4,188,210

And you're going to tip $1 Million?????
link to original post



I could see Nick doing that.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
NicksGamingStuff
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January 8th, 2023 at 5:15:39 PM permalink
Definitely! I would love to have $3M and give the rest to the crew :)
rsactuary
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January 8th, 2023 at 5:16:57 PM permalink
:rolls eyes:
DRich
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January 8th, 2023 at 5:37:28 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Let the record show it hit at $6,443,401. I wonder what he tipped. According to my tip formula for jackpots, the appropriate amount is $5,076, but I'd round down to an even 5K.
link to original post



And when you tipped $5000 you would be bad mouthed for years by the dealers. If we assume 100 dealers that day each would get $50. You would be called very bad names. I have no idea how much I would tip or even if I would tip.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
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