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Wizard
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Wizard
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October 13th, 2022 at 12:55:42 PM permalink
I have an unconfirmed report the Fortune pai gow poker jackpot at Harrah's (Las Vegas) is at $3.5 million. I hear the minimum for the base bet is $25 and the side bet is a flat $5. There are various versions of the pay table, for but now I'll assume the one below.

EVENT PAYS COMBINATIONS PROBABILITY RETURN
Seven-card straight flush $3,500,000 228 0.000001 5.177008
Five aces $350,000 1128 0.000007 2.561257
Royal flush $500 26092 0.000169 0.084636
Straight flush $100 184644 0.001198 0.119787
Four of a kind $75 307472 0.001995 0.149604
Full house $4 4188528 0.027173 0.108692
Loser $0 149434988 0.969456 0.000000
Total $0 154143080 1.000000 8.200984


The lower right cell shows the expected return from a $5 bet is $8.20. Not bad. That is a win of $3.20.

However, I show the expected loss on the base game is $0.68. Here I'm assuming a 2.72% house edge, based on a 5% commission and the dealer banking.

So, an expected win per hand of $3.20 - $0.68 = $2.52 per hand.

Of course, this is before taxes on the jackpot.

Remember, none of this is confirmed, yet.

The question for the poll is would you play with said jackpot? Multiple votes allowed.

Update: The pay table above is incorrect. It is corrected later in this tread.
Last edited by: Wizard on Oct 18, 2022
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
ams288
ams288
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October 13th, 2022 at 1:27:28 PM permalink
Harrah’s, PH, Caesars, Flamingo, and Rio should all be linked to the same progressive jackpot. At least they used to be.

As for playing it. I’m a no.

I hit the 7 card straight flush in June 2020 at Flamingo and wasn’t playing it the progressive. People acted like I should have gone and jumped off the roof or something. I told them had I been betting $5 on that spot each hand, I would have lost my measly $100 buy in and left the table LONG BEFORE I got the hand.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
SOOPOO
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October 13th, 2022 at 2:15:40 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I have an unconfirmed report the Fortune pai gow poker jackpot at Harrah's (Las Vegas) is at $3.5 million. I hear the minimum for the base bet is $25 and the side bet is a flat $5. There are various versions of the pay table, for but now I'll assume the one below.

EVENT PAYS COMBINATIONS PROBABILITY RETURN
Seven-card straight flush $3,500,000 228 0.000001 5.177008
Five aces $350,000 1128 0.000007 2.561257
Royal flush $500 26092 0.000169 0.084636
Straight flush $100 184644 0.001198 0.119787
Four of a kind $75 307472 0.001995 0.149604
Full house $4 4188528 0.027173 0.108692
Loser $0 149434988 0.969456 0.000000
Total $0 154143080 1.000000 8.200984


The lower right cell shows the expected return from a $5 bet is $8.20. Not bad. That is a win of $3.20.

However, I show the expected loss on the base game is $0.68. Here I'm assuming a 2.72% house edge, based on a 5% commission and the dealer banking.

So, an expected win per hand of $3.20 - $0.68 = $2.52 per hand.

Of course, this is before taxes on the jackpot.

Remember, none of this is confirmed, yet.

The question for the poll is would you play with said jackpot? Multiple votes allowed.
link to original post



Assume $1k bankroll. What is your risk of ruin before hitting the bankroll? Gotta be over 99%?

At least the jackpot is life changing money for the majority of us. I don’t think I’d play it. If it gets to $3.6 million by next week maybe I’ll change my mind.
Deucekies
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October 14th, 2022 at 12:49:01 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I have an unconfirmed report the Fortune pai gow poker jackpot at Harrah's (Las Vegas) is at $3.5 million. I hear the minimum for the base bet is $25 and the side bet is a flat $5. There are various versions of the pay table, for but now I'll assume the one below.



My understanding is they have the three-tier jackpot, with separate jackpots for Seven-Card, Five Aces, and Royal Flush.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
Wizard
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miplet
October 18th, 2022 at 2:15:44 PM permalink
I went down to the Strip today to investigate this, as I love to deliver an advantage play on a silver platter as much as I can.



Here are the facts.

This opportunity is on Face Up Pai Gow Poker.

I can confirm it is at Caesars, Cromwell, Linq, Flamingo and Harrah's. I did not check the properties south of Flamingo or the Rio.

The base bet required was $15 or $25 at all properties except Caesars, where it was $50 and $100.

Here is my analysis of just the $5 progressive bet. This is based on the jackpots about 11AM on Oct 18, 2022.

EVENT PAYS COMBINATIONS PROBABILITY RETURN
Seven-card straight flush $3,832,836 228 0.000001 5.669322
Five aces $155,924 1128 0.000007 1.141036
Royal flush $3,595 26092 0.000169 0.608458
Straight flush $500 184644 0.001198 0.598937
Four of a kind $375 307472 0.001995 0.748019
Full house $20 4188528 0.027173 0.543460
Loser $0 149434988 0.969456 0.000000
Total 154143080 1.000000 9.309231


The lower right cell shows the expected "win" is $9.31. However, wins are on a "for one" basis. After deducting for the $5 bet, the expected profit is $4.31 per hand.

The house edge on the base game is 1.81%.

The following table shows the overall expected player win per hand at various minimum bets on the base bet. The house edge column is relative to the sum of both bets.

Base bet Value per hand Player advantage
$15 $4.04 20.19%
$25 $3.86 12.86%
$50 $3.41 6.19%
$100 $2.50 2.38%


An expected win of $4.04 per hand ain't bad. Assuming 30 hands per hour, that's an expected win per hour of $121.20.

I leave it to the reader to make adjustments for taxes.
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
SOOPOO
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October 18th, 2022 at 3:18:39 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I went down to the Strip today to investigate this, as I love to deliver an advantage play on a silver platter as much as I can.



Here are the facts.

This opportunity is on Face Up Pai Gow Poker.

I can confirm it is at Caesars, Cromwell, Linq, Flamingo and Harrah's. I did not check the properties south of Flamingo or the Rio.

The base bet required was $15 or $25 at all properties except Caesars, where it was $50 and $100.

Here is my analysis of just the $5 progressive bet. This is based on the jackpots about 11AM on Oct 18, 2022.

EVENT PAYS COMBINATIONS PROBABILITY RETURN
Seven-card straight flush $3,832,836 228 0.000001 5.669322
Five aces $155,924 1128 0.000007 1.141036
Royal flush $3,595 26092 0.000169 0.608458
Straight flush $500 184644 0.001198 0.598937
Four of a kind $375 307472 0.001995 0.748019
Full house $20 4188528 0.027173 0.543460
Loser $0 149434988 0.969456 0.000000
Total 154143080 1.000000 9.309231


The lower right cell shows the expected "win" is $9.31. However, wins are on a "for one" basis. After deducting for the $5 bet, the expected profit is $4.31 per hand.

The house edge on the base game is 1.81%.

The following table shows the overall expected player win per hand at various minimum bets on the base bet. The house edge column is relative to the sum of both bets.

Base bet Value per hand Player advantage
$15 $4.04 20.19%
$25 $3.86 12.86%
$50 $3.41 6.19%
$100 $2.50 2.38%


An expected win of $4.04 per hand ain't bad. Assuming 30 hands per hour, that's an expected win per hour of $121.20.

I leave it to the reader to make adjustments for taxes.
link to original post



What would Kelly say? If I have a $1000 bankroll, is it playable? $10,000? Assume the $15 base bet.
Wiggins
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October 18th, 2022 at 3:38:53 PM permalink
I have encountered casinos that will not let you play the progressive jackpot unless you also play the fortune bonus. Can anyone confirm Caesars policy?
Wizard
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Dieter
October 18th, 2022 at 3:45:39 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


What would Kelly say? If I have a $1000 bankroll, is it playable? $10,000? Assume the $15 base bet.
link to original post



Looking at just the progressive jackpot bet, the optimal Kelly wager is 0.00000212 * bankroll.

So, if you had a $10,000 bankroll, you should bet 2 cents on the progressive, assuming you could.

To justify the $5 progressive bet, you would need a bankroll north of $2,353,598.25.
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
SOOPOO
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October 18th, 2022 at 4:18:07 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: SOOPOO


What would Kelly say? If I have a $1000 bankroll, is it playable? $10,000? Assume the $15 base bet.
link to original post



Looking at just the progressive jackpot bet, the optimal Kelly wager is 0.00000212 * bankroll.

So, if you had a $10,000 bankroll, you should bet 2 cents on the progressive, assuming you could.

To justify the $5 progressive bet, you would need a bankroll north of $2,353,598.25.
link to original post



Thank you. I figured as much. Just a reminder that because an opportunity is +EV it does not mean it should be played.

My friend Andy texted me moments ago saying he hit a Royal playing it paying $500 for a $1 bet. Sounds like a different casino which has the dollar bet on the flashing circle.
Wizard
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Wizard
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October 18th, 2022 at 4:38:50 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

My friend Andy texted me moments ago saying he hit a Royal playing it paying $500 for a $1 bet. Sounds like a different casino which has the dollar bet on the flashing circle.
link to original post



Drinks are on Andy!

A bit off topic, but I calculate the expected time for the jackpot to hit is 31 days.
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan

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