## Poll

9 votes (42.85%) | |||

No votes (0%) | |||

8 votes (38.09%) | |||

3 votes (14.28%) | |||

3 votes (14.28%) | |||

4 votes (19.04%) | |||

1 vote (4.76%) | |||

1 vote (4.76%) | |||

5 votes (23.8%) | |||

1 vote (4.76%) |

**21 members have voted**

EVENT | PAYS | COMBINATIONS | PROBABILITY | RETURN |
---|---|---|---|---|

Seven-card straight flush | $3,500,000 | 228 | 0.000001 | 5.177008 |

Five aces | $350,000 | 1128 | 0.000007 | 2.561257 |

Royal flush | $500 | 26092 | 0.000169 | 0.084636 |

Straight flush | $100 | 184644 | 0.001198 | 0.119787 |

Four of a kind | $75 | 307472 | 0.001995 | 0.149604 |

Full house | $4 | 4188528 | 0.027173 | 0.108692 |

Loser | $0 | 149434988 | 0.969456 | 0.000000 |

Total | $0 | 154143080 | 1.000000 | 8.200984 |

The lower right cell shows the expected return from a $5 bet is $8.20. Not bad. That is a win of $3.20.

However, I show the expected loss on the base game is $0.68. Here I'm assuming a 2.72% house edge, based on a 5% commission and the dealer banking.

So, an expected win per hand of $3.20 - $0.68 = $2.52 per hand.

Of course, this is before taxes on the jackpot.

Remember, none of this is confirmed, yet.

The question for the poll is would you play with said jackpot? Multiple votes allowed.

Update: The pay table above is incorrect. It is corrected later in this tread.

As for playing it. I’m a no.

I hit the 7 card straight flush in June 2020 at Flamingo and wasn’t playing it the progressive. People acted like I should have gone and jumped off the roof or something. I told them had I been betting $5 on that spot each hand, I would have lost my measly $100 buy in and left the table LONG BEFORE I got the hand.

Quote:WizardI have an unconfirmed report the Fortune pai gow poker jackpot at Harrah's (Las Vegas) is at $3.5 million. I hear the minimum for the base bet is $25 and the side bet is a flat $5. There are various versions of the pay table, for but now I'll assume the one below.

EVENT PAYS COMBINATIONS PROBABILITY RETURN Seven-card straight flush $3,500,000 228 0.000001 5.177008 Five aces $350,000 1128 0.000007 2.561257 Royal flush $500 26092 0.000169 0.084636 Straight flush $100 184644 0.001198 0.119787 Four of a kind $75 307472 0.001995 0.149604 Full house $4 4188528 0.027173 0.108692 Loser $0 149434988 0.969456 0.000000 Total $0 154143080 1.000000 8.200984

The lower right cell shows the expected return from a $5 bet is $8.20. Not bad. That is a win of $3.20.

However, I show the expected loss on the base game is $0.68. Here I'm assuming a 2.72% house edge, based on a 5% commission and the dealer banking.

So, an expected win per hand of $3.20 - $0.68 = $2.52 per hand.

Of course, this is before taxes on the jackpot.

Remember, none of this is confirmed, yet.

The question for the poll is would you play with said jackpot? Multiple votes allowed.

link to original post

Assume $1k bankroll. What is your risk of ruin before hitting the bankroll? Gotta be over 99%?

At least the jackpot is life changing money for the majority of us. I don’t think I’d play it. If it gets to $3.6 million by next week maybe I’ll change my mind.

Quote:WizardI have an unconfirmed report the Fortune pai gow poker jackpot at Harrah's (Las Vegas) is at $3.5 million. I hear the minimum for the base bet is $25 and the side bet is a flat $5. There are various versions of the pay table, for but now I'll assume the one below.

My understanding is they have the three-tier jackpot, with separate jackpots for Seven-Card, Five Aces, and Royal Flush.

Here are the facts.

This opportunity is on Face Up Pai Gow Poker.

I can confirm it is at Caesars, Cromwell, Linq, Flamingo and Harrah's. I did not check the properties south of Flamingo or the Rio.

The base bet required was $15 or $25 at all properties except Caesars, where it was $50 and $100.

Here is my analysis of just the $5 progressive bet. This is based on the jackpots about 11AM on Oct 18, 2022.

EVENT | PAYS | COMBINATIONS | PROBABILITY | RETURN |
---|---|---|---|---|

Seven-card straight flush | $3,832,836 | 228 | 0.000001 | 5.669322 |

Five aces | $155,924 | 1128 | 0.000007 | 1.141036 |

Royal flush | $3,595 | 26092 | 0.000169 | 0.608458 |

Straight flush | $500 | 184644 | 0.001198 | 0.598937 |

Four of a kind | $375 | 307472 | 0.001995 | 0.748019 |

Full house | $20 | 4188528 | 0.027173 | 0.543460 |

Loser | $0 | 149434988 | 0.969456 | 0.000000 |

Total | 154143080 | 1.000000 | 9.309231 |

The lower right cell shows the expected "win" is $9.31. However, wins are on a "for one" basis. After deducting for the $5 bet, the expected profit is $4.31 per hand.

The house edge on the base game is 1.81%.

The following table shows the overall expected player win per hand at various minimum bets on the base bet. The house edge column is relative to the sum of both bets.

Base bet | Value per hand | Player advantage |
---|---|---|

$15 | $4.04 | 20.19% |

$25 | $3.86 | 12.86% |

$50 | $3.41 | 6.19% |

$100 | $2.50 | 2.38% |

An expected win of $4.04 per hand ain't bad. Assuming 30 hands per hour, that's an expected win per hour of $121.20.

I leave it to the reader to make adjustments for taxes.

Quote:WizardI went down to the Strip today to investigate this, as I love to deliver an advantage play on a silver platter as much as I can.

Here are the facts.

This opportunity is on Face Up Pai Gow Poker.

I can confirm it is at Caesars, Cromwell, Linq, Flamingo and Harrah's. I did not check the properties south of Flamingo or the Rio.

The base bet required was $15 or $25 at all properties except Caesars, where it was $50 and $100.

Here is my analysis of just the $5 progressive bet. This is based on the jackpots about 11AM on Oct 18, 2022.

EVENT PAYS COMBINATIONS PROBABILITY RETURN Seven-card straight flush $3,832,836 228 0.000001 5.669322 Five aces $155,924 1128 0.000007 1.141036 Royal flush $3,595 26092 0.000169 0.608458 Straight flush $500 184644 0.001198 0.598937 Four of a kind $375 307472 0.001995 0.748019 Full house $20 4188528 0.027173 0.543460 Loser $0 149434988 0.969456 0.000000 Total 154143080 1.000000 9.309231

The lower right cell shows the expected "win" is $9.31. However, wins are on a "for one" basis. After deducting for the $5 bet, the expected profit is $4.31 per hand.

The house edge on the base game is 1.81%.

The following table shows the overall expected player win per hand at various minimum bets on the base bet. The house edge column is relative to the sum of both bets.

Base bet Value per hand Player advantage $15 $4.04 20.19% $25 $3.86 12.86% $50 $3.41 6.19% $100 $2.50 2.38%

An expected win of $4.04 per hand ain't bad. Assuming 30 hands per hour, that's an expected win per hour of $121.20.

I leave it to the reader to make adjustments for taxes.

link to original post

What would Kelly say? If I have a $1000 bankroll, is it playable? $10,000? Assume the $15 base bet.

Quote:SOOPOO

What would Kelly say? If I have a $1000 bankroll, is it playable? $10,000? Assume the $15 base bet.

link to original post

Looking at just the progressive jackpot bet, the optimal Kelly wager is 0.00000212 * bankroll.

So, if you had a $10,000 bankroll, you should bet 2 cents on the progressive, assuming you could.

To justify the $5 progressive bet, you would need a bankroll north of $2,353,598.25.

Quote:WizardQuote:SOOPOO

What would Kelly say? If I have a $1000 bankroll, is it playable? $10,000? Assume the $15 base bet.

link to original post

Looking at just the progressive jackpot bet, the optimal Kelly wager is 0.00000212 * bankroll.

So, if you had a $10,000 bankroll, you should bet 2 cents on the progressive, assuming you could.

To justify the $5 progressive bet, you would need a bankroll north of $2,353,598.25.

link to original post

Thank you. I figured as much. Just a reminder that because an opportunity is +EV it does not mean it should be played.

My friend Andy texted me moments ago saying he hit a Royal playing it paying $500 for a $1 bet. Sounds like a different casino which has the dollar bet on the flashing circle.

Quote:SOOPOOMy friend Andy texted me moments ago saying he hit a Royal playing it paying $500 for a $1 bet. Sounds like a different casino which has the dollar bet on the flashing circle.

link to original post

Drinks are on Andy!

A bit off topic, but I calculate the expected time for the jackpot to hit is 31 days.