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Havok10
Havok10
Joined: May 28, 2013
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May 28th, 2013 at 1:59:04 PM permalink
Quote: JB

But you should still be able to make Five Aces.



Yes 5 aces is 500:1.
JB
Administrator
JB
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May 28th, 2013 at 2:00:45 PM permalink
I see it now. It was colored differently so I overlooked it thinking it was the header row.
sodawater
sodawater
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May 28th, 2013 at 2:18:13 PM permalink
haha, i would love to play this game if the bonus actually paid 12:1 for a straight.
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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May 28th, 2013 at 5:49:17 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

haha, i would love to play this game if the bonus actually paid 12:1 for a straight.



+1

Yeah, on another forum I post on, they copied and pasted the same goofed paytable. I assumed the straight paid 2:1 and if I did the math right (questionable), you draw down with any pair. Not sure with straight draws and flush draws. I never got around to that math. I would guess you chase open-ended straight and flush draws too though.

http://www.vegasmessageboard.com/forums/showpost.php?p=769482&postcount=5
Havok10
Havok10
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May 30th, 2013 at 11:29:05 AM permalink
Played it last night again... ground down... got a straight flush.. ground down.. got four of a kind.. ground down and left..

Person next to me hit a wild royal..

Spent about $300 in four hours... so seemed like a typical table gaming session.

Would love to know optimal play.. I was playing pretty aggressive, pretty often throwing away pairs, 4 cards to a straight/flush to chase the big hands. (straight flush for example). Throwing away two pair with aces to try and draw the 5 aces.
tringlomane
tringlomane
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May 30th, 2013 at 1:50:30 PM permalink
Quote: Havok10

Throwing away two pair with aces to try and draw the 5 aces.



Interesting thought. I would assume that was wrong, but I would need to do the math on it to make sure...meh. I assume open-ended straight draws and flush draws are also playable, not sure about inside straight draws.

Inside straight draws:

Draw 1 6 outs; 4 of a rank and 2 bugs:
Probability of hitting straight within 2 draws

1 - (43/49)*(42/48) = 0.232142857

0.232142857*(2 + 3) + (1 - 0.232142857)*(-4) = -1.9107

This is better than folding immediately, so draw down.

If you have a bug with a 2 gap draw: (e.g. 68TW) (W=bug)
Now we have 9 outs showing all inside draws are playable.

Since inside draws are playable, you can play all straight draws and flush draws obviously.

As for breaking Aces up:
Don't break Aces up:

Probability of making full house (6 outs total):
6/49 + (43/49)*(6/48) = 0.232142857

EV for keeping Aces up: 0.232142857*(5 + 3) + (1-0.232142857)*(0+3) = 4.1607

Now lets consider the EV of breaking Aces up:
Draw 1:
5 Aces: 4 combos (4 "aces" remaining choose 3)
4 of a kind: C(4,2)*45 = 270 combos
Full House: 4*10*C(4,2) + 4*1*C(3,2) + 4*1*1 + 10*C(4,3) + 1*1 = 297 combos
3 of a kind: 4*C(45,2) - 4*10*6 - 4*1*3 - 4*1*1 = 3704 combos
2 pair: 10*6*41 + 1*3*42 + 1*1*43 = 2629 combos
"No improvement": C(45,3) - 10*6*41 - 1*3*42 - 1*1*43 - 10*C(4,3) - 1*1 = 11520 combos
Total = 18424 combos
Sanity Check: C(49,3) = 49*48*47/(3*2*1) = 18424 combos

I put "No improvement" in quotes for now, because some of these combos will lead to AA + straight or flush draws. You probably will switch draws if you pick one of these up.

But to make the math easier for now, I am going to assume you aren't going to switch draws for now. You will redraw one card for anything but 5 Aces and a full house.

Five Aces:
(4/18424)*(500 + 3) = 0.10920

Four of a kind:
(270/18424)*(2/46)*(500 + 3) + (270/18424)*(44/46)*(20 + 3) = 0.64289962

Full House:
(297/18424)*(5 + 3) = 0.128962223

For three of a kind, 2 pair and no improvement, I am going to assume no blockers from previous draws to make this a little easier on me:
Three of a kind:
(3704/18424)*(3/46)*(20 + 3) + (3704/18424)*(6/46)*(5 + 3) + (3704/18424)*(37/46)*(1 + 3) = 1.1581774

Two pair:
(2629/18424)*(6/46)*(5 + 3) + (2629/18424)*(40/46)*(0 + 3) = 0.52114444

No improvement:
(11520/18424)*(4/46)*(1 + 3) + (11520/18424)*(6/46)*(0 + 3) - (11520/18424)*(36/46)*(4) = -1.4952142

Total EV: 1.0652

So keep Aces up, and it's not even close. Why? Because you win 1 to 1 on three bets automatically and have a free roll of 5 to 1 on the Bonus bet.

But what if you have AA and improve to a straight or flush draw?

AA (no blockers):
(4/46)*(1 + 3) + (6/46)*(0 + 3) - (36/46)*(4) = -2.3913

Wheel or broadway draw with no bug: (6 outs: 2 bugs and 4 non-wilds)
(6/46)*(2 + 3) - (40/46)*(4) = -2.826

Flush draw with no bug (11 outs: 2 bugs and 9 non wilds):

(9/46)*(3+3) - (37/46)*(4) = -2.04347826

Without a bug, keep AA for a gutshot, ditch AA for a flush draw.

Ace-low gutshot with bug (example AW45, need 2, 3, or other bug to complete), Ace makes trips.
(9/46)*(2 + 3) + (3/46)*(1 +3) - (37/46)*(4) = -1.97826

And flush draw with bug:
(10/46)*(3+3) - (36/46)*(4) = -1.826087

So if you have any draw with the bug, keep the draw over Ace plus a bug.
tringlomane
tringlomane
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May 30th, 2013 at 1:53:57 PM permalink
Also, I have a bad feeling 3 to a natural royal/straight flush draw math may be interesting as well, but I am taking a break for now.
Havok10
Havok10
Joined: May 28, 2013
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August 30th, 2013 at 12:34:13 PM permalink
Thanks for the math tringlomane... headed to the casino again tonight.. wish there was a full analysis of the game.

I hate not playing optimally... but your math so far has been helpful.


Thats the offical page.
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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August 30th, 2013 at 2:00:40 PM permalink
Quote: Havok10

Thanks for the math tringlomane... headed to the casino again tonight.. wish there was a full analysis of the game.

I hate not playing optimally... but your math so far has been helpful.

http://inbetgaming.com/double_draw.html

Thats the offical page.



You're welcome, unfortunately I think the very bottom of the page is wrong. (now fixed)
Thermos
Thermos
Joined: Oct 9, 2011
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August 30th, 2013 at 8:30:07 PM permalink
But what, pray tell, does McDemon think of the game?

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