Double Draw Poker

New game I saw at Mohegan Sun in CT.

Anyone care to analyze it?

Its exactly this:


Pay table is the same. 12 to 1 on a straight is a typo its 2:1.

I hear thru the grapevine it`s over 5%,but will wait for the math guys for the final answer.

2 jokers huh... wish they had that in paigow :)

This game sounds way too slow. You are not going to get many hands per hour.

Does the 500-1 for five aces pay the same if the hand includes both jokers? Seems high for double draw with six "good" cards in play.

edit: Also, is the game only against a pay table? With six players sharing card info, I think this game may have some holes that can be exploited.

Quote: nezbit

2 jokers huh... wish they had that in paigow :)

They had this game a long time ago at a local cardroom. WSGC pdf for Double Dragon Pai Gow.

Just against the pay table.. not against the dealer. Yes. The five aces bet can be two jokers and three aces.

The game is new and the dealers were VERY liberal.. we were chatting up a storm.. "anyone have any aces?" etc. etc.

We weren't brazen enough at the table to ask for a specific card... but I was looking at all the cards of the players to the right and left of me.

Pretty strange that there's no payline for 5 of a kind. Does the Straight really pay 12-to-1 or is that a typo and it's supposed to be 2-to-1?

You can't get 5 of a kind because they are Pai Gow Jokers. Only fill in for a straight or flush. I yes the 12:1 is a typo.

i am going to the casino tomorrow night and will double check the paytable. Because I don't think they required a natural royal flush.

I asked for a brochure on the game and they looked at me like I had a hole in my head.

But you should still be able to make Five Aces.

Quote:

The Jokers can be used as an Ace or to complete a “Straight” or “Flush”.

Quote: JB

But you should still be able to make Five Aces.

Yes 5 aces is 500:1.

I see it now. It was colored differently so I overlooked it thinking it was the header row.

haha, i would love to play this game if the bonus actually paid 12:1 for a straight.

Quote: sodawater

haha, i would love to play this game if the bonus actually paid 12:1 for a straight.

+1

Yeah, on another forum I post on, they copied and pasted the same goofed paytable. I assumed the straight paid 2:1 and if I did the math right (questionable), you draw down with any pair. Not sure with straight draws and flush draws. I never got around to that math. I would guess you chase open-ended straight and flush draws too though.

http://www.vegasmessageboard.com/forums/showpost.php?p=769482&postcount=5

Played it last night again... ground down... got a straight flush.. ground down.. got four of a kind.. ground down and left..

Person next to me hit a wild royal..

Spent about $300 in four hours... so seemed like a typical table gaming session.

Would love to know optimal play.. I was playing pretty aggressive, pretty often throwing away pairs, 4 cards to a straight/flush to chase the big hands. (straight flush for example). Throwing away two pair with aces to try and draw the 5 aces.

Quote: Havok10

Throwing away two pair with aces to try and draw the 5 aces.

Interesting thought. I would assume that was wrong, but I would need to do the math on it to make sure...meh. I assume open-ended straight draws and flush draws are also playable, not sure about inside straight draws.

Inside straight draws:

Draw 1 6 outs; 4 of a rank and 2 bugs:
Probability of hitting straight within 2 draws

1 - (43/49)*(42/48) = 0.232142857

0.232142857*(2 + 3) + (1 - 0.232142857)*(-4) = -1.9107

This is better than folding immediately, so draw down.

If you have a bug with a 2 gap draw: (e.g. 68TW) (W=bug)
Now we have 9 outs showing all inside draws are playable.

Since inside draws are playable, you can play all straight draws and flush draws obviously.

As for breaking Aces up:
Don't break Aces up:

Probability of making full house (6 outs total):
6/49 + (43/49)*(6/48) = 0.232142857

EV for keeping Aces up: 0.232142857*(5 + 3) + (1-0.232142857)*(0+3) = 4.1607

Now lets consider the EV of breaking Aces up:
Draw 1:
5 Aces: 4 combos (4 "aces" remaining choose 3)
4 of a kind: C(4,2)*45 = 270 combos
Full House: 4*10*C(4,2) + 4*1*C(3,2) + 4*1*1 + 10*C(4,3) + 1*1 = 297 combos
3 of a kind: 4*C(45,2) - 4*10*6 - 4*1*3 - 4*1*1 = 3704 combos
2 pair: 10*6*41 + 1*3*42 + 1*1*43 = 2629 combos
"No improvement": C(45,3) - 10*6*41 - 1*3*42 - 1*1*43 - 10*C(4,3) - 1*1 = 11520 combos
Total = 18424 combos
Sanity Check: C(49,3) = 49*48*47/(3*2*1) = 18424 combos

I put "No improvement" in quotes for now, because some of these combos will lead to AA + straight or flush draws. You probably will switch draws if you pick one of these up.

But to make the math easier for now, I am going to assume you aren't going to switch draws for now. You will redraw one card for anything but 5 Aces and a full house.

Five Aces:
(4/18424)*(500 + 3) = 0.10920

Four of a kind:
(270/18424)*(2/46)*(500 + 3) + (270/18424)*(44/46)*(20 + 3) = 0.64289962

Full House:
(297/18424)*(5 + 3) = 0.128962223

For three of a kind, 2 pair and no improvement, I am going to assume no blockers from previous draws to make this a little easier on me:
Three of a kind:
(3704/18424)*(3/46)*(20 + 3) + (3704/18424)*(6/46)*(5 + 3) + (3704/18424)*(37/46)*(1 + 3) = 1.1581774

Two pair:
(2629/18424)*(6/46)*(5 + 3) + (2629/18424)*(40/46)*(0 + 3) = 0.52114444

No improvement:
(11520/18424)*(4/46)*(1 + 3) + (11520/18424)*(6/46)*(0 + 3) - (11520/18424)*(36/46)*(4) = -1.4952142

Total EV: 1.0652

So keep Aces up, and it's not even close. Why? Because you win 1 to 1 on three bets automatically and have a free roll of 5 to 1 on the Bonus bet.

But what if you have AA and improve to a straight or flush draw?

AA (no blockers):
(4/46)*(1 + 3) + (6/46)*(0 + 3) - (36/46)*(4) = -2.3913

Wheel or broadway draw with no bug: (6 outs: 2 bugs and 4 non-wilds)
(6/46)*(2 + 3) - (40/46)*(4) = -2.826

Flush draw with no bug (11 outs: 2 bugs and 9 non wilds):

(9/46)*(3+3) - (37/46)*(4) = -2.04347826

Without a bug, keep AA for a gutshot, ditch AA for a flush draw.

Ace-low gutshot with bug (example AW45, need 2, 3, or other bug to complete), Ace makes trips.
(9/46)*(2 + 3) + (3/46)*(1 +3) - (37/46)*(4) = -1.97826

And flush draw with bug:
(10/46)*(3+3) - (36/46)*(4) = -1.826087

So if you have any draw with the bug, keep the draw over Ace plus a bug.

Also, I have a bad feeling 3 to a natural royal/straight flush draw math may be interesting as well, but I am taking a break for now.

Thanks for the math tringlomane... headed to the casino again tonight.. wish there was a full analysis of the game.

I hate not playing optimally... but your math so far has been helpful.


Thats the offical page.

Quote: Havok10

Thanks for the math tringlomane... headed to the casino again tonight.. wish there was a full analysis of the game.

I hate not playing optimally... but your math so far has been helpful.

http://inbetgaming.com/double_draw.html

Thats the offical page.

You're welcome, unfortunately I think the very bottom of the page is wrong. (now fixed)

But what, pray tell, does McDemon think of the game?

SHFL entertainment a few weeks ago acquired Double Draw Poker. The game is available at casinos in Connecticut, Missouri, Delaware and Mississippi, and it is coming soon to New Jersey, Florida and Nevada. It will be one of our featured products next month at G2E in Las Vegas, and the inventor will be on hand to answer any questions.

Quote: Pacman

SHFL entertainment a few weeks ago acquired Double Draw Poker. The game is available at casinos in Connecticut, Missouri, Delaware and Mississippi, and it is coming soon to New Jersey, Florida and Nevada. It will be one of our featured products next month at G2E in Las Vegas, and the inventor will be on hand to answer any questions.

Missouri?? Where?? :D

And now I might actually have to do the 3 to a SF math unless others would offer to freely share it. *coughs*

Quote: Thermos

But what, pray tell, does McDemon think of the game?

"bullocks", or something like that.

What is the hit rate of getting two pair or better?

I would be interested to see the hand probability distribution if a member of the "Forum Math Trust" is up for it....you smart ones know who you are :-).

Since this game obviously is spreading and seems to have sticking power... Any chance of a full analysis on Wizard Of Odds?

Quote: Havok10

Since this game obviously is spreading and seems to have sticking power... Any chance of a full analysis on Wizard Of Odds?

I would definitely be interested in seeing this. And I did find it in Missouri in Boonville of all places, meh. Didn't really have time to play though, but I was tempted.

I played this game last week in demo form, and got a couple of hints, but no overall strategy. They said 97% of hands mathematically qualify for the first (3 card draw) bet, and 90% of hands are worth the second (1 card) draw. The win rate went unstated. I also heard that it took over a year to do the math because the permutations were so large. I thought it was fun, but I agree that I would like to see proper strategy (which will be a huge ask for anyone on here) before I bet large amounts of money. By my estimation during my play, less than 80% of dealt hands were worth the first draw, and less than 50% were worth betting the second draw, so I found the demonstrator's percentages high (in my very limited experience). Even including 2 jokers, you have to start with a pair, 3 to a flush, or 3 to a straight to even consider staying in; yes, every hand will by definition have 2 to a flush to start, and maybe they're including those in the 97%, but then you need 3 of the next 4 to also be that suit; seems unlikely. I definitely did not find a minimum of 2 pair potential with 1 card to go in 90% of my hands and folded a lot at that point.

Quote: Havok10

Since this game obviously is spreading and seems to have sticking power... Any chance of a full analysis on Wizard Of Odds?

Is it spreading? I've only seen it at Mohegan Sun, where else is it?

Quote: jopke

Is it spreading? I've only seen it at Mohegan Sun, where else is it?

Quote: Pacman

SHFL entertainment a few weeks ago acquired Double Draw Poker. The game is available at casinos in Connecticut, Missouri, Delaware and Mississippi, and it is coming soon to New Jersey, Florida and Nevada. It will be one of our featured products next month at G2E in Las Vegas, and the inventor will be on hand to answer any questions.

It is definitely now in Florida at the Seminole Hard Rock casinos. I talked to the pit boss down there last month, and they keep at least one table open 24 hrs; can't recall whether he said they have 2 or 3. $5 minimum.

Quote: beachbumbabs

I played this game last week in demo form, and got a couple of hints, but no overall strategy. They said 97% of hands mathematically qualify for the first (3 card draw) bet, and 90% of hands are worth the second (1 card) draw. The win rate went unstated. I also heard that it took over a year to do the math because the permutations were so large. I thought it was fun, but I agree that I would like to see proper strategy (which will be a huge ask for anyone on here) before I bet large amounts of money. By my estimation during my play, less than 80% of dealt hands were worth the first draw, and less than 50% were worth betting the second draw, so I found the demonstrator's percentages high (in my very limited experience). Even including 2 jokers, you have to start with a pair, 3 to a flush, or 3 to a straight to even consider staying in; yes, every hand will by definition have 2 to a flush to start, and maybe they're including those in the 97%, but then you need 3 of the next 4 to also be that suit; seems unlikely. I definitely did not find a minimum of 2 pair potential with 1 card to go in 90% of my hands and folded a lot at that point.

3 to a straight is strong enough? Really? I'd be surprised. Even surprised with 3 to a regular flush. And if true, people definitely play this game suboptimally! I proved that any pair was worth seeing til the end in a earlier thread. That alone makes this a rough game, imo.

Dover Downs in Delaware has it. I tried it last year when it first came out, and went bust quickly on my $100. Even on the busiest nights, I've never seen the minimum higher than $5

The other night, I took note of a few players' chip stacks when visiting that casino. I returned an hour later to find the players that still remained had smaller size chip stacks.

Not much else to report from Delaware, other than I'm somewhat afraid to play this game without any proper strategy.

It is now available at Prairie Meadows in Iowa. Just got it a few days ago. Watched the game for a little while then decided to try it. On my 3rd hand, my first 5 cards showed a straight flush and paid 50-1 :D

Otherwise it was just a typical game, up and down. got lucky and got quite a few decent enough hands to keep me around. Ended up leaving +$175 :D

Overall I thought it was a fun game, like any other game just don't stay too long before the inevitable bad cards come.

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Quote: wrxrob

other than I'm somewhat afraid to play this game without any proper strategy.

I played it at Seminole Hard Rock (Hollywood, FL) and just about everyone paid to draw additional cards or paid to stay in when they already had a great hand. I saw very few inter-player variations at the table.

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Very vulnerable to collusion -- about the same as Lunar poker. A team can depth charge their draws for a big player at third base.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Limits here are $5 - $25

$25 is plenty at Mississippi Stud, but collusion is not nearly as strong as hole-carding. I wonder how long DDP would last at a $200 limit.

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It's hot as can be at Hard Rock Ft. Lauderdale. 2 deep waiting to play, busy practically all the time. They're pretty happy with it. They are VERY strict about collusion, though, most of the dealers.

This is at Monte Carlo in Vegas as well. Table min was always $5. Table was always pretty full last weekend.

Has anyone figured out what the hit rate of getting two pair or better is on this game?

How about hit rate for three of a kind or better to get paid on the bonus bet?

It just seems like this game is a lot of chasing that results in only getting paid 1 out 3-4 hands and in most of those you are going to push on the bonus bet.

Quote: ams288

This is at Monte Carlo in Vegas as well. Table min was always $5. Table was always pretty full last weekend.

Time for wiz to do a page on it then?

I would like to see a strategy for the game myself.

Quote: tringlomane

Time for wiz to do a page on it then?

I would like to see a strategy for the game myself.

Yes, when I saw it at Monte I looked for it on the Wizard of Odds and saw it wasn't there so I didn't play. I don't like playing new games without having a general idea of a the strategy.

I've been fussing some with the numbers on this. As we all know, I'm no mathematician. Take these numbers with a whole shaker of salt; I'm using them logically as places to start, not definitive math.

However, DDP seems to have about a 36% hit rate (which is consistent with my experience with the game so far), and 2 pair is still a moneymaker, because all bets are equal units, and 2 pair pays on 3 of 4 bets and pushes on the 4th. According to Bally/SHFL marketing, 97% of dealt hands are worth the first draw, and 92% are worth the second. (each draw requires a 1x ante bet or fold at that point).

So 3% of the time, -2 units
5% of the time, -3 units
56% of the time, -4 units
36% of the time, +3 units +bonus (if any)

In a 9 card poker hand, 2 pair is the best possible result ~50% of the time. You're going to miss a lot of those going for better hands and splitting a pair, or discarding a card that you would have paired had you been able to select from all the cards you will see. So it would be a total swag on how many of those you can count v. higher ranked (and bonus paying cards) but,

With 2 bug jokers, (FH, 4OAK & 3OAK are estimated from 9 card poker returns without fully adding the effect of Jokers = Aces; all should be a bit higher)(Joker-heavy hands are from Double Joker VP probabilities crossed with DDP paytables; probably off as well because you can draw 4 or 5 initially, but somewhat balanced back by being able to switch hand strategy on the 2nd draw).

5 aces is .003208% for a return of .0160
Nat Royal is .002200% for a return of .0022
SF/Wild RF is .184500% for a return of .0923
4OAK is .620500% for a return of .1210
FH is 11.530438% for a return of .5765 (this number seems truly whack to me, but you're working with 9 cards, so 1 in 9 hands, I guess, is possible)
Flush is 1.9185% for a return of .0576
Straight is 3.4142% for a return of .06828
3OAK is 5.34929% for a return of .0535

So the return on the bonus bet is roughly .9873 and is probably an under-estimate (see notes above).

Ready. Set. Go.

Quote: beachbumbabs

......However, DDP seems to have about a 36% hit rate (which is consistent with my experience with the game so far.....

I didn't quite follow how you got to this percentage.....my guess is this number is closer to 30%.

Quote: Paradigm

I didn't quite follow how you got to this percentage.....my guess is this number is closer to 30%.

I looked at Double Joker Poker VP, which uses 2 full Jokers, as a rough guide at 37%, and the Bally/SHFL marketer said "a little better than 1 in 3 hit rate" when explaining the game to me, so I lowered the DJP number a little to extrapolate. Again, very rough numbers, and similar to my experience the last 8 hours of hands I played (I was using a different hold strategy and losing worse before I adapted). I realize that's a small sampling, though I'm including a full table's results for 7 of those 8 hours.

Your guess could be more accurate than mine, for sure.

Gotcha and that makes more sense now. You only have one draw opportunity in Double Joker Poker VP, correct?

Are the jokers in that VP game used similarly to how they are used in this table game? If so maybe the hit rate is north of the 36% in the table game version due to the double draw opportunity.

What is obvious is we need a real math guy/gal to get involved.....and I recall one of them saying the math in Double Draw is exceptionally cumbersome!

Until I know the math for this game and strategy, I will just watch others play.

Quote: Paradigm

Gotcha and that makes more sense now. You only have one draw opportunity in Double Joker Poker VP, correct?

Are the jokers in that VP game used similarly to how they are used in this table game? If so maybe the hit rate is north of the 36% in the table game version due to the double draw opportunity.

What is obvious is we need a real math guy/gal to get involved.....and I recall one of them saying the math in Double Draw is exceptionally cumbersome!

Until I know the math for this game and strategy, I will just watch others play.

Definitely; I did ask the Wiz on here several months ago if he was willing to tackle it; he said at the time it's an eNORmous job, months if not a year or more, to crunch the numbers on it. I asked Bally/SHFL about it recently; they verified the math the inventors produced before they acquired it. So it's out there but may be proprietary.

The jokers are identical in application to PGP. But there are 2 of them; surprising how often they show up. That's why I used some of the VP numbers as pretty close (flush/straight/SF/RF/5Aces when divided out from 5OAK) because, maximum, you see 10 cards in VP, 9 in DDP, but going 3 then 1 has to be an advantage, as you can shift.

For example, I would think, under best strategy, you get A-Joker-xxx; you throw xxx and draw 3, going for aces (no SF draw w/A-Joker in discards, because that would be a better hold, I think, drawing 2 and 1). You draw another pair and x. Now you hold for 2 pair, not Aces, as a sure win, and throw x hoping for a FH, with an extra out with the other Joker in the deck. So you changed strategy in mid-stream, you get paid even though you didn't get the hand you started for, and you have an extra draw to improve (over VP, where you held the same 2 cards initially).

Quote: beachbumbabs

FH is 11.530438% for a return of .5765 (this number seems truly whack to me, but you're working with 9 cards, so 1 in 9 hands, I guess, is possible)

This number is somewhat optimistic i think. That 11.53% is for when you hold all 9 cards at once and only use 5. When you play this game, you can't grab your cards back out of the muck. Well I guess you could if you wanted to be dragged out by security...lol Now obviously you will be throwing away 3 singletons on the first draw a lot while holding a pair. When you toss those three singletons out while holding a pair you would expect to see a pair of one of those 3 singletons in the draw cards 3*3*42/C(47,3) = 2.33% of the time. That would be a full house in the 8 or 9 card stud game, but is only two pair here. You obviously can still improve the hand to a full house, but that only occurs 6/44 = 13.63% of the time. So probably a "better number" for a full house is closer to 0.1153 - 0.0233*(1-.1363) = 0.09518 = 9.518%.


I havent done the math to verify it, but I would have to think any 3 to SF is playable considering they said 97% of all hands were playable in the first place. The 50 to 1 payout is huge. Maybe any 2 to a SF...gulp.

I played this game today. Somehow got a straight right off the bat on the first hand without having to draw. I played a bit longer and won a few hands, but I had to go. Felt a bit lost without knowing optimal play, but I tried to make reasonable decisions. There were only a couple people playing at most at any given time. Also, the odds are definitely worse (in Detroit) because Three of a Kind is a push and a straight is 1-1 (don't remember the rest of the paytable).