Desperately Seeking Baccarat
March 29th, 2013 at 4:00:51 PM
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Hello gr8player,
Good to see you in here. Wondered where you would of went with the now defunct useless BF.
Anyhow dropped by the Borgata recently. Very nice casino/hotel. Love the clientele there. Pretty good baccarat tables I can say. All EZ Bac and..... they cut two decks!!!! Two decks. Yet a six deck of cards with eight deck characteristics seem to generate some great patterns I can play.
Also if you like playing by yourself and likes the unlimited free hands feature like they do in Vegas drop by the Showboat.
And.... the Revel sucks. Trump is crap. Terrible service.
Good to see you in here. Wondered where you would of went with the now defunct useless BF.
Anyhow dropped by the Borgata recently. Very nice casino/hotel. Love the clientele there. Pretty good baccarat tables I can say. All EZ Bac and..... they cut two decks!!!! Two decks. Yet a six deck of cards with eight deck characteristics seem to generate some great patterns I can play.
Also if you like playing by yourself and likes the unlimited free hands feature like they do in Vegas drop by the Showboat.
And.... the Revel sucks. Trump is crap. Terrible service.
April 1st, 2013 at 8:16:45 AM
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Hello, D-man....how've you been? A real pleasure to see you posting again. A real pleasure to see a real Bac player. As you can readily see, my request within the very title of this thread has, apparently, been simply ignored. While I agree about the fallen quality at BF, I sure do wish there were a Bac forum where serious players could relate experiences and compare notes.
Yes, D...there's the Borgata in 1st place in AC and everyone else a distant third. Luv that place. And some generous match plays mixed in with a $10 fantastic buffet (w/current Black card)....not to mention the babe watching.
Patterns, D? You're a "two- and three-hole" trender/bettor, aren't you? As am I.
Revel...never been, probably never will (their no-smoking policy is a non-starter for me).
Trump Plaza used to be one of the very best Bac houses in town...now it's a ghost town.
Bally's is good, but too much "midi" Bac for my liking. S l o w w w ... I simply haven't the luxury of unlimited casino time.
What's this about "unlimited free hands" at the Showboat? Haven't heard, but it sure sounds interesting......
Anyhow, again, D, nice to hear from you. Be well, my friend.
Yes, D...there's the Borgata in 1st place in AC and everyone else a distant third. Luv that place. And some generous match plays mixed in with a $10 fantastic buffet (w/current Black card)....not to mention the babe watching.
Patterns, D? You're a "two- and three-hole" trender/bettor, aren't you? As am I.
Revel...never been, probably never will (their no-smoking policy is a non-starter for me).
Trump Plaza used to be one of the very best Bac houses in town...now it's a ghost town.
Bally's is good, but too much "midi" Bac for my liking. S l o w w w ... I simply haven't the luxury of unlimited casino time.
What's this about "unlimited free hands" at the Showboat? Haven't heard, but it sure sounds interesting......
Anyhow, again, D, nice to hear from you. Be well, my friend.
April 1st, 2013 at 1:47:36 PM
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Good to see some serious Bac players here. Hope you guys can reach the volume of the craps posters.
Was always a fan of the Smart Baccarat blog. Whatever happened to him?
Was always a fan of the Smart Baccarat blog. Whatever happened to him?
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
April 1st, 2013 at 4:59:44 PM
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The Borgata. My first time there ever was a month ago to see how things are in AC. I love Vegas and all but that 6 hour plane ride is just too brutal. Plus I can head straight to AC from the Port Authority right after work. A room at the Showboat is $14/night and the bus at $34.50 round trip. Can't be beat.
At first that two deck cut at the EZ Bac tables were intimidating since that is the first ever I have seen to cut 8-decks so deep. So I didn't know how things would go so I just flat bet to test three or four shoes. Yet I realized that this gives me some great advantage and matches many of the patterns that I play and recently discovered. This same goes for the Trump Plaza but the service is terrible. The food is amazing at the Borgata. Didn't try the buffet but I did stop by that Noodles of the World (N.O.W). Awesome food.
If you don't know Revel is allowing smoking on its floor starting today. But there are only two tables there and it is always empty. Maybe that will change.
As for Unlimited Free Hands. That is the corner stone to having a temporal/structural advantage and as to why I prefer Vegas. Free Hands is when you don't have to bet and the dealer just deals the cards to move the shoe. When it is unlimited you can just sit there and have the dealer just deal the cards until you are ready to bet. If you like playing by yourself like me then you would love this. The second best is if they allow you to just spread bet both sides to move the shoe. Not many dealers/casinos allow this. I know Caesar's in Vegas does not allow it. And for a brief time Encore in Vegas didn't allow it either until the clientele raised major hell about this.
Yet free hands are not allowed in EZ Bac because no commissions are charged. So you have to play every hand to move the shoe yet at places like the Borgata that would not be an issue since that place is always packed. Thank goodness that the Dragon Bonus bac is gone since things were not to my advantage when every casino in the East Coast was having this.
At first that two deck cut at the EZ Bac tables were intimidating since that is the first ever I have seen to cut 8-decks so deep. So I didn't know how things would go so I just flat bet to test three or four shoes. Yet I realized that this gives me some great advantage and matches many of the patterns that I play and recently discovered. This same goes for the Trump Plaza but the service is terrible. The food is amazing at the Borgata. Didn't try the buffet but I did stop by that Noodles of the World (N.O.W). Awesome food.
If you don't know Revel is allowing smoking on its floor starting today. But there are only two tables there and it is always empty. Maybe that will change.
As for Unlimited Free Hands. That is the corner stone to having a temporal/structural advantage and as to why I prefer Vegas. Free Hands is when you don't have to bet and the dealer just deals the cards to move the shoe. When it is unlimited you can just sit there and have the dealer just deal the cards until you are ready to bet. If you like playing by yourself like me then you would love this. The second best is if they allow you to just spread bet both sides to move the shoe. Not many dealers/casinos allow this. I know Caesar's in Vegas does not allow it. And for a brief time Encore in Vegas didn't allow it either until the clientele raised major hell about this.
Yet free hands are not allowed in EZ Bac because no commissions are charged. So you have to play every hand to move the shoe yet at places like the Borgata that would not be an issue since that place is always packed. Thank goodness that the Dragon Bonus bac is gone since things were not to my advantage when every casino in the East Coast was having this.
April 1st, 2013 at 5:09:13 PM
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As for BF, not a fan of the place after what I discovered about Mike/Administrator and his purpose to start that forum. It was not about baccarat at all and more about traffic and generating income. That is why it is now defunct because it is not aligning his pockets as before. So whatever useful info can be gone very quickly without notice like we have discovered now.
April 2nd, 2013 at 7:00:15 AM
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O.K......here's a Bac post. Poor Bac players don't get any respect.....it's all about Lice Control....I mean Dice Control. Just started playing Bac for the first time in my 30 plus years of losing. What is this obsession with the "history board"? (or whatever it's called). WTF are they looking at...? If I'm on Player, everybody is on Banker and visa versa. I guess "round eye" doesn't know WTF he is doing......which would make them right.
Each day is better than the next
April 2nd, 2013 at 12:13:05 PM
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TeddyS, I know nothing of any "Smart Baccarat" blog, so I cannot comment.
D-man, thanks again for the additional info. And, yeah, it was tough to see BF go down, especially with some of the rather pertinant posts/posters going down with it. Shame.....
Treetopbuddy, the "history board", or the shoe "tracking", is what attracts most players to this game. Players, such as myself, look for certain things; those things can be prevailing trends or they can be what some might consider "abnormalities"; either one represents certain betting opportunities.
It doesn't make us right. It doesn't make us wrong. It's just a basis for placing a bet. Then, win or lose, we have a response to those results, as well.
It's a game we play. With ourselves. It can be rather subjective, but, my friend, know this: I wouldn't have it any other way. I'm a hunter, they're the prey, and I'm taking constant/consistant "shots" at them, picking my spots all along the way.....and I usually prevail. Again, it's all in the game we play.
i wish you all the very best of it.
D-man, thanks again for the additional info. And, yeah, it was tough to see BF go down, especially with some of the rather pertinant posts/posters going down with it. Shame.....
Treetopbuddy, the "history board", or the shoe "tracking", is what attracts most players to this game. Players, such as myself, look for certain things; those things can be prevailing trends or they can be what some might consider "abnormalities"; either one represents certain betting opportunities.
It doesn't make us right. It doesn't make us wrong. It's just a basis for placing a bet. Then, win or lose, we have a response to those results, as well.
It's a game we play. With ourselves. It can be rather subjective, but, my friend, know this: I wouldn't have it any other way. I'm a hunter, they're the prey, and I'm taking constant/consistant "shots" at them, picking my spots all along the way.....and I usually prevail. Again, it's all in the game we play.
i wish you all the very best of it.
April 2nd, 2013 at 5:34:01 PM
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The history board is just raw data because everything is just 50/50. Yet knowing how to uncover patterns, patterns within patterns, patterns of the patterns, etc with the board (I use the Main Road and nothing else) will reduce your variance close to your Expected Return Per Shoe which ever you discover that may be since we all have different profit targets and stop losses. Baccarat is the only game I would even dare to touch at a casino I have to admit. Roulette, black jack, craps, Casino War, Pai Gow whatever.... typical casino games I stay away like the plague.
April 3rd, 2013 at 9:03:24 AM
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Spot-on post, D-man; good job, as per usual.
"Reducing our variance" is key. "Profit targets" and "stop losses" are more of a personal nature, and rather dependent on our own unit sizes. But variance is the common denominator; a "wide" variance necessitates the usage of steeper progressions and, hence, lower intial unit sizes, and, ultimately, lower profitability. With more stress, not just on one's BR but their psyche, as well. So it's the "variance reduction" that we all strive for; the "tighter" the better, the more tractable (read: consistently reliable....hesitating to use the word "predictable" here, but would prefer it) the better.
Lastly, D, I'd bet "dollars to donuts" that you prefer Bac over those other house-banked games because you've successfully developed a method at this game that has you confident in your bet selection and money-management capabilities, and that all translates to rather expectant/consistent successes (read: wins).
As always, I wish you all the very best of it.
"Reducing our variance" is key. "Profit targets" and "stop losses" are more of a personal nature, and rather dependent on our own unit sizes. But variance is the common denominator; a "wide" variance necessitates the usage of steeper progressions and, hence, lower intial unit sizes, and, ultimately, lower profitability. With more stress, not just on one's BR but their psyche, as well. So it's the "variance reduction" that we all strive for; the "tighter" the better, the more tractable (read: consistently reliable....hesitating to use the word "predictable" here, but would prefer it) the better.
Lastly, D, I'd bet "dollars to donuts" that you prefer Bac over those other house-banked games because you've successfully developed a method at this game that has you confident in your bet selection and money-management capabilities, and that all translates to rather expectant/consistent successes (read: wins).
As always, I wish you all the very best of it.
April 3rd, 2013 at 4:57:05 PM
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What I am afraid of about baccarat is not my method(s) going stale and I have been defeated by the game and I have to close shop (knock on wood). What I am truly afraid of is baccarat becoming games like black jack and poker. When the game has become efficient. I mean by this is that some Thorp-like genius comes in and opens his/her trap and ruins the game for everyone. For the moment drop by your local Barnes & Noble and head to the gaming section. You see tons and tons of books on black jack and poker. I know many of these books are fluff but there are many that are worthy of the paper they are written on. Like the famous Beat the Dealer for black jack or The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler. These great books have truly given the player the edge to extract money at the tables. I don't want this to happen to baccarat at all. I want this game to remain elusive for the masses where not many people would be jumping into this. For those that do I want them to be naive and be possessed by their own greed, fear and hope without the willing effort to put in the work to keep the illusion going so the casinos would not have to adjust and adapt new ways to make it hard to extract chips from the table to my pockets.
April 3rd, 2013 at 5:15:41 PM
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well, you won't have to worry about me spilling the beansQuote: DMSCRWhat I am afraid of about baccarat is not my method(s) going stale and I have been defeated by the game and I have to close shop (knock on wood). What I am truly afraid of is baccarat becoming games like black jack and poker. When the game has become efficient. I mean by this is that some Thorp-like genius comes in and opens his/her trap and ruins the game for everyone. For the moment drop by your local Barnes & Noble and head to the gaming section. You see tons and tons of books on black jack and poker. I know many of these books are fluff but there are many that are worthy of the paper they are written on. Like the famous Beat the Dealer for black jack or The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler. These great books have truly given the player the edge to extract money at the tables. I don't want this to happen to baccarat at all. I want this game to remain elusive for the masses where not many people would be jumping into this. For those that do I want them to be naive and be possessed by their own greed, fear and hope without the willing effort to put in the work to keep the illusion going so the casinos would not have to adjust and adapt new ways to make it hard to extract chips from the table to my pockets.
Each day is better than the next
April 3rd, 2013 at 5:28:35 PM
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Quote: treetopbuddywell, you won't have to worry about me spilling the beansQuote: DMSCRWhat I am afraid of about baccarat is not my method(s) going stale and I have been defeated by the game and I have to close shop (knock on wood). What I am truly afraid of is baccarat becoming games like black jack and poker. When the game has become efficient. I mean by this is that some Thorp-like genius comes in and opens his/her trap and ruins the game for everyone. For the moment drop by your local Barnes & Noble and head to the gaming section. You see tons and tons of books on black jack and poker. I know many of these books are fluff but there are many that are worthy of the paper they are written on. Like the famous Beat the Dealer for black jack or The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler. These great books have truly given the player the edge to extract money at the tables. I don't want this to happen to baccarat at all. I want this game to remain elusive for the masses where not many people would be jumping into this. For those that do I want them to be naive and be possessed by their own greed, fear and hope without the willing effort to put in the work to keep the illusion going so the casinos would not have to adjust and adapt new ways to make it hard to extract chips from the table to my pockets.
Well if you do find out something that works and you are consistently profitable, keep your mouth shut! And just go on your stealth mode and extract your chips and disappear. Rinse and repeat. LOL.
April 8th, 2013 at 4:25:46 PM
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shoe #121 in the Wizards 8 deck RGN's....P P P P P P P P P T P P P P B T P P P P P P P P B P P P P B B. The Beat the Streak System defeated this nasty Black Swan. A powerful negative progression that I uncovered while watching Family Guy. Sorry, I will not be selling to the public for obvious reasons.
Each day is better than the next
May 7th, 2013 at 10:01:36 AM
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gr8player -
I have a question for you. My local casinos are now offering no commission no collection baccarat. The only caveat is when the banker gets a third card and totals 7, then its a push for the banker instead of a win.
So my question is, if i were to continuously bet 1 unit on each side and continue to bet 1 unit on the losing side, but on the winning side progress positively using the 1324 method and returning back to 1 unit after the 4th win, is it possible to grind out a victory. The plan is to quit once i am up 5 units.
In other words, if the player wins 4 in a row, it would profit 10 units while losing 4 units on the banker side at the same time, thus netting 6 units. So it seems that if EITHER side has a nice run, then I should come out positive. A loss would occur if one either side only wins 2 in a row.
Curious of your thoughts.
I have a question for you. My local casinos are now offering no commission no collection baccarat. The only caveat is when the banker gets a third card and totals 7, then its a push for the banker instead of a win.
So my question is, if i were to continuously bet 1 unit on each side and continue to bet 1 unit on the losing side, but on the winning side progress positively using the 1324 method and returning back to 1 unit after the 4th win, is it possible to grind out a victory. The plan is to quit once i am up 5 units.
In other words, if the player wins 4 in a row, it would profit 10 units while losing 4 units on the banker side at the same time, thus netting 6 units. So it seems that if EITHER side has a nice run, then I should come out positive. A loss would occur if one either side only wins 2 in a row.
Curious of your thoughts.
May 13th, 2013 at 8:17:08 AM
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Hello, teamswindler. Please pardon the tardiness of my response to your inquiry, as I had a rare vacation week and spent the bulk of that (M - F) playing Bac in AC.
I simply cannot endorse the play that you're proposing.
The play loses two units at every "single" (read: a run of only one), and singles, my friend, are the most prolific of runs. One wouldn't want singles representing the "nemesis" of their play, IMHO.
Furthermore, even in those times where you are fortunate enough to get to your last "4-bet" (which is, for all intents and purposes, a "3-unit net" bet), should that bet fall, you're left at even for your series of bets. So you won your last two bets (again, effectively, the first bet, as a "net bet", falls always as "break-even") but came away empty-handed with that last loss. Those are odds that I would seek to avoid rather than promulgate.
Now, that all said, teamswindler, I do understand your basic premise, and I can appreciate it, as well. Capitalization. Maximizing winning plays.
Here's my approach in that vein:
I'd look for a predominate current trend to exploit.
Let's say that the Banker has been "doubling", like this: BB BBB BB, where it's been "hitting the 2-hole" on a rather consistent basis in this shoe (or portion thereof). I'd bet a unit on that "second B", collect my profit, and await another "top-line" (read: "1-hole") Banker decision and then either parlay or, at the very least, half-parlay my next bet onto that same "second B" trend.
In other words, I don't mind getting a bit aggressive and raising my bets, but I want to do so INTO THE PROPENSITY of this current shoe's results.
Another thing I'd look for, pretty much staying with that same type of trend, is if the Banker has been hitting the "3-hole" with any consistency, as well. In that case, I can bet for the "second Banker" and immediately utilize my parlay option directly onto the next "3-hole" bet, staying with the Banker's side once more.
Now, this is just one a a few trends that I seek out, and it bears noting that I don't just bet for Banker trends; I'm an equal-opportunity trender, so the Player's side, if that's where the trends are holding, that's where my bets are going. I'm always seeking an opportunity to exploit the existing conditions of each particular shoe or, again, any portion thereof.
Sometimes there are none to exploit, and my bets sink into the dealer's tray. In that case I'll back off my bets, and await a better (read: "trendier") portion of the soe, or even the next shoe. I don't do much chasing, much preferring to allow the table to come to me. It will, eventually. My trends are proven to me, and I've no doubt in them whatsoever. It's just a matter of "when".
Which brings me to probably the most important advice that I can impart to you on this game, teamswindler:
While there are good qualities inherent in playing an up-as-you-win, relatively aggressive style of play in order to capture the most units as you can whenever the table is favoring your bets, please know that, in the long run, you'd be better served to acknowledge and affirm this tenet:
"Protect the downside, and the upside will take care of itself."
Negative variance.
Everyone suffers through it, at some time or another. Sometimes worse than other times; no matter how you slice and dice it, negative variance is a very real nemesis to all casino play and one must learn to both recognize and deal with it or they will be, unfortunately, devoured by it.
Winning is the easy part. Nice when the majority of your bets are being paid off, isn't it? Any organ grinder and their monkey can win during the "positive variance" times of their play.
But it is within the negative variance times, and each player's personal reaction to same, that will serve to define them as successful (or, unfortunately, unsuccessful) long-term Bac players.
"Protect the downside and the upside will take care of itself".
Negative variance:
1.) No-bet (or, at the very least, minimilize your bets)
2.) Patience....await the "turn"....If your trends are worth a dollar, they'll appear soon enough.
3.) Discipline....play your same plays, your same money-management processes, and your same methodology ALWAYS. Never waver.
And then comes recoup:
Learn to recognize when it appears that your "upturn" is here, or, at the very least, impending/looming. Then be prepared to maximize your recoup of losses from your negative variance period. At recoup, return to base play.
You've effectively taken away the one most powerful weapon in the casino's arsenal against you: Continuous play. Continuous play and the negative variance that is, inevitably, a part of it. A major part. The casino needs only to keep you playing for them to get the better of you, eventually. For the negative variance, if one were to play the same way, blindly, at each and every turn of the cards, both bet-selection and money-management wise, will swallow you (and your bankroll) whole. Eventually.
The antedote to that rather frightful fate? Learning to recognize and react to one's own negative variance.
I wish it for all of you.
(Sidenote: Is it an exact science? Nope. And does that, at times, cost me some dollars? Oh, sure it does. Sometomes I'll find myself "back-pedalling" when I should be going "full-steam ahead", mostly because I've read my "variance" incorrectly. It happens. There is no perfection to be had here; only our very best attempts at all times. So, sometimes, my "misread" may cost me a few more dollars won....no biggie. I can't have it both ways. I can't be alerted and keen to negative variance by ignoring any potential signs of same. So sometimes I'm wrong. Again, no biggie.
Because for all those times when I'm correct, and I've avoided potentially-devastating losses, all in the name of "protecting the downside" via variance tracking; that is what keeps me in this game, that is what affords me the opportunity to continue in this constant battle. Loss avoidance.
I played last week at the Borgata and Harrah's (I prefer the marina over the boardwalk, for various reasons), 2 night each, and played 10 sessions. Didn't lose a one. Not one. Sure, I had difficulty....2 in particular. The other 8 were relative breezes. But 2 were tough, and one, particular, came close to relieving me of my session bankroll, and that, my friends, is a rarity, indeed.
But I stayed with that particularly harsh session, mainly because, well.....it was in fact, too harsh. Negative variance barking out loud. I knew something good would happen soon...the question then became....will I be here for it. I was, and it did. Left the table at even, same as the second rough session of the week. Break even. I'll seek to "get my recoup and get out" in those more-difficult-than-usual sessions.
But I won every other session, winning 25 units (flat-betting predominately) for the other 8 sessions....avg of almost 3 per, which, for me, is "spot on". (I play relatively-high unit sizes.) All wins add up rather nicely over the long term. If only you can keep right on playing; and you only can "keep right on playing" by preserving your bankroll, and, ipso facto.....the "preservation of your bankroll" becomes of paramount importance.
I simply cannot endorse the play that you're proposing.
The play loses two units at every "single" (read: a run of only one), and singles, my friend, are the most prolific of runs. One wouldn't want singles representing the "nemesis" of their play, IMHO.
Furthermore, even in those times where you are fortunate enough to get to your last "4-bet" (which is, for all intents and purposes, a "3-unit net" bet), should that bet fall, you're left at even for your series of bets. So you won your last two bets (again, effectively, the first bet, as a "net bet", falls always as "break-even") but came away empty-handed with that last loss. Those are odds that I would seek to avoid rather than promulgate.
Now, that all said, teamswindler, I do understand your basic premise, and I can appreciate it, as well. Capitalization. Maximizing winning plays.
Here's my approach in that vein:
I'd look for a predominate current trend to exploit.
Let's say that the Banker has been "doubling", like this: BB BBB BB, where it's been "hitting the 2-hole" on a rather consistent basis in this shoe (or portion thereof). I'd bet a unit on that "second B", collect my profit, and await another "top-line" (read: "1-hole") Banker decision and then either parlay or, at the very least, half-parlay my next bet onto that same "second B" trend.
In other words, I don't mind getting a bit aggressive and raising my bets, but I want to do so INTO THE PROPENSITY of this current shoe's results.
Another thing I'd look for, pretty much staying with that same type of trend, is if the Banker has been hitting the "3-hole" with any consistency, as well. In that case, I can bet for the "second Banker" and immediately utilize my parlay option directly onto the next "3-hole" bet, staying with the Banker's side once more.
Now, this is just one a a few trends that I seek out, and it bears noting that I don't just bet for Banker trends; I'm an equal-opportunity trender, so the Player's side, if that's where the trends are holding, that's where my bets are going. I'm always seeking an opportunity to exploit the existing conditions of each particular shoe or, again, any portion thereof.
Sometimes there are none to exploit, and my bets sink into the dealer's tray. In that case I'll back off my bets, and await a better (read: "trendier") portion of the soe, or even the next shoe. I don't do much chasing, much preferring to allow the table to come to me. It will, eventually. My trends are proven to me, and I've no doubt in them whatsoever. It's just a matter of "when".
Which brings me to probably the most important advice that I can impart to you on this game, teamswindler:
While there are good qualities inherent in playing an up-as-you-win, relatively aggressive style of play in order to capture the most units as you can whenever the table is favoring your bets, please know that, in the long run, you'd be better served to acknowledge and affirm this tenet:
"Protect the downside, and the upside will take care of itself."
Negative variance.
Everyone suffers through it, at some time or another. Sometimes worse than other times; no matter how you slice and dice it, negative variance is a very real nemesis to all casino play and one must learn to both recognize and deal with it or they will be, unfortunately, devoured by it.
Winning is the easy part. Nice when the majority of your bets are being paid off, isn't it? Any organ grinder and their monkey can win during the "positive variance" times of their play.
But it is within the negative variance times, and each player's personal reaction to same, that will serve to define them as successful (or, unfortunately, unsuccessful) long-term Bac players.
"Protect the downside and the upside will take care of itself".
Negative variance:
1.) No-bet (or, at the very least, minimilize your bets)
2.) Patience....await the "turn"....If your trends are worth a dollar, they'll appear soon enough.
3.) Discipline....play your same plays, your same money-management processes, and your same methodology ALWAYS. Never waver.
And then comes recoup:
Learn to recognize when it appears that your "upturn" is here, or, at the very least, impending/looming. Then be prepared to maximize your recoup of losses from your negative variance period. At recoup, return to base play.
You've effectively taken away the one most powerful weapon in the casino's arsenal against you: Continuous play. Continuous play and the negative variance that is, inevitably, a part of it. A major part. The casino needs only to keep you playing for them to get the better of you, eventually. For the negative variance, if one were to play the same way, blindly, at each and every turn of the cards, both bet-selection and money-management wise, will swallow you (and your bankroll) whole. Eventually.
The antedote to that rather frightful fate? Learning to recognize and react to one's own negative variance.
I wish it for all of you.
(Sidenote: Is it an exact science? Nope. And does that, at times, cost me some dollars? Oh, sure it does. Sometomes I'll find myself "back-pedalling" when I should be going "full-steam ahead", mostly because I've read my "variance" incorrectly. It happens. There is no perfection to be had here; only our very best attempts at all times. So, sometimes, my "misread" may cost me a few more dollars won....no biggie. I can't have it both ways. I can't be alerted and keen to negative variance by ignoring any potential signs of same. So sometimes I'm wrong. Again, no biggie.
Because for all those times when I'm correct, and I've avoided potentially-devastating losses, all in the name of "protecting the downside" via variance tracking; that is what keeps me in this game, that is what affords me the opportunity to continue in this constant battle. Loss avoidance.
I played last week at the Borgata and Harrah's (I prefer the marina over the boardwalk, for various reasons), 2 night each, and played 10 sessions. Didn't lose a one. Not one. Sure, I had difficulty....2 in particular. The other 8 were relative breezes. But 2 were tough, and one, particular, came close to relieving me of my session bankroll, and that, my friends, is a rarity, indeed.
But I stayed with that particularly harsh session, mainly because, well.....it was in fact, too harsh. Negative variance barking out loud. I knew something good would happen soon...the question then became....will I be here for it. I was, and it did. Left the table at even, same as the second rough session of the week. Break even. I'll seek to "get my recoup and get out" in those more-difficult-than-usual sessions.
But I won every other session, winning 25 units (flat-betting predominately) for the other 8 sessions....avg of almost 3 per, which, for me, is "spot on". (I play relatively-high unit sizes.) All wins add up rather nicely over the long term. If only you can keep right on playing; and you only can "keep right on playing" by preserving your bankroll, and, ipso facto.....the "preservation of your bankroll" becomes of paramount importance.
May 14th, 2013 at 9:32:28 AM
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Hi gr8player,
Can you elaborate in which scenario would you place your bets?
For example, if 3 Banker appears in a row, would you bet on Banker still or would you bet on player?
I have come across Banker and Players streaks, 10 to 11 times in a row, even up to 17 times in a row.
How do you determine if a trend is forming.
I hope to just win 3-5 units per seesion and walk away a winner every time.
Appreciate your soonest reply.
Thanks
Can you elaborate in which scenario would you place your bets?
For example, if 3 Banker appears in a row, would you bet on Banker still or would you bet on player?
I have come across Banker and Players streaks, 10 to 11 times in a row, even up to 17 times in a row.
How do you determine if a trend is forming.
I hope to just win 3-5 units per seesion and walk away a winner every time.
Appreciate your soonest reply.
Thanks
May 14th, 2013 at 9:42:02 AM
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I used to go against the trend. For example, I will bet on banker after I observed a streak of 7 player outcomes. And vice versa.
It worked sometimes but eventually the streaks get the better of me bcos I used martingale method.
Which I realised that it was not the way to go.
It worked sometimes but eventually the streaks get the better of me bcos I used martingale method.
Which I realised that it was not the way to go.
May 15th, 2013 at 8:43:40 AM
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Quote: liuryanHi gr8player,
Can you elaborate in which scenario would you place your bets?
For example, if 3 Banker appears in a row, would you bet on Banker still or would you bet on player?
I have come across Banker and Players streaks, 10 to 11 times in a row, even up to 17 times in a row.
How do you determine if a trend is forming.
I hope to just win 3-5 units per seesion and walk away a winner every time.
Appreciate your soonest reply.
Thanks
1.) Can you elaborate in which scenario would you place your bets?
No. That "scenario" is determined more by each particular shoe's (or portion thereof) propensities than it is by me.
2.) For example, if 3 Banker appears in a row, would you bet on Banker still or would you bet on Player?
Depends. If that B3 streak has been the cap for this shoe, then I'd be betting the streak to end at 3. If the B side has been running to at least the "4-hole", I'd be betting for the streak to continue at least once more. Lastly, if that B3 represents a "new top" (longest B streak of the shoe), I'd bet for the streak's continuation until it ended. Quite often, "new top"s can be precursers to some rather powerful streaks.
3.) How do you determine if a trend is forming?
Now there's the million dollar question, isn't it? Again, it all depends on each particular shoe's propensities. And I do happen to look for certain "preferred" trends (read: trends where "wins beget more wins", or "dominations", if you will). That, IMHO, is the very reason to play any EC game...to seek out and maximize potential profits on dominations, those times when you're winning the majority of your bet placements.
And, last but certainly not least;
4.) I hope to just win 3-5 unitsper session and walk away a winner every time.
Really? Is that all? I want all of that AND a personal massage from the hottest cocktail waitress in the casino. There's a "happy ending" for us all....
May 16th, 2013 at 7:33:07 AM
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Please pardon my indulgence as I ask the following questions of my fellow members:
Does anyone know of any relatively active, current Baccarat forum that I might be able to visit? Alternatively, might anyone know of any general gaming forum that has, at the very least, a Baccarat section within it?
I'm looking to engage in a bit more "Bac talk" than I'm afforded in this forum. That statement isn't meant to demean anyone in this forum or the forum itself, for I think it is more a matter of a misjudgement on my part as to what I perceived this forum to be about. That said, I feel absolutely compelled to add that this forum provides a wonderful service for its members and/or readership, and I am quite pleased to be a part of it.
I thank you, in advance, for any assistance and/or direction to a forum a bit more amenable to a Baccarat player such as myself.
Does anyone know of any relatively active, current Baccarat forum that I might be able to visit? Alternatively, might anyone know of any general gaming forum that has, at the very least, a Baccarat section within it?
I'm looking to engage in a bit more "Bac talk" than I'm afforded in this forum. That statement isn't meant to demean anyone in this forum or the forum itself, for I think it is more a matter of a misjudgement on my part as to what I perceived this forum to be about. That said, I feel absolutely compelled to add that this forum provides a wonderful service for its members and/or readership, and I am quite pleased to be a part of it.
I thank you, in advance, for any assistance and/or direction to a forum a bit more amenable to a Baccarat player such as myself.
May 16th, 2013 at 8:23:24 AM
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Quote: gr8playerPlease pardon my indulgence as I ask the following questions of my fellow members:
Does anyone know of any relatively active, current Baccarat forum that I might be able to visit? Alternatively, might anyone know of any general gaming forum that has, at the very least, a Baccarat section within it?
I'm looking to engage in a bit more "Bac talk" than I'm afforded in this forum. That statement isn't meant to demean anyone in this forum or the forum itself, for I think it is more a matter of a misjudgement on my part as to what I perceived this forum to be about. That said, I feel absolutely compelled to add that this forum provides a wonderful service for its members and/or readership, and I am quite pleased to be a part of it.
I thank you, in advance, for any assistance and/or direction to a forum a bit more amenable to a Baccarat player such as myself.
I've always enjoyed your post and I believe you give the house a tough game. I warned you early on that you would find no love in this forum if you even hinted that you could beat negative expectancy game (run-on sentence). No disrespect to forum.
Each day is better than the next
May 16th, 2013 at 8:49:29 AM
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The thing is that I can be convinced that an individual is (at least, presently) a lifetime winner of Baccarat. I'm not going to be convinced that much of it has anything to do with streaks or trending, or anything of that nature. With a large enough bankroll, and good money management, however, I could see how someone could win in the short run...and then there are even some winners in what one may term, "Long run," in games in which the house as an advantage. The number of plays that need to be satisfied for something to be considered, "Long run," will vary from individual to individual, and as those increase, there will be less winners.
However, could someone play a year of Baccarat and be ahead? Sure. Two years? Why not?
Also, if it's something like the Martingale, there can be up to a 99%+ chance of system success on each given run of the system. When the system has succeeded, the next round of Baccarat will not be a pox of any kind, or cursed, there is a 99% chance that it will succeed again. Again after that. You get the idea.
Could someone run something like the Marty for a prolonged period of time and be successful? Sure. Someone could get lucky, and most will not.
I'd certainly entertain a discussion about your money management techniques, or system play, gr8player. When you talk about streaks and trending, though, I will admit that is immaterial to me. I also don't like Baccarat, but discussion concerning money management or systems can apply to more than just Baccarat, of course.
However, could someone play a year of Baccarat and be ahead? Sure. Two years? Why not?
Also, if it's something like the Martingale, there can be up to a 99%+ chance of system success on each given run of the system. When the system has succeeded, the next round of Baccarat will not be a pox of any kind, or cursed, there is a 99% chance that it will succeed again. Again after that. You get the idea.
Could someone run something like the Marty for a prolonged period of time and be successful? Sure. Someone could get lucky, and most will not.
I'd certainly entertain a discussion about your money management techniques, or system play, gr8player. When you talk about streaks and trending, though, I will admit that is immaterial to me. I also don't like Baccarat, but discussion concerning money management or systems can apply to more than just Baccarat, of course.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
May 16th, 2013 at 9:53:18 AM
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Quote: treetopbuddyI've always enjoyed your post and I believe you give the house a tough game. I warned you early on that you would find no love in this forum if you even hinted that you could beat negative expectancy game (run-on sentence). No disrespect to forum.
Yes, you did alert me to that fact, TTB, and I thank you for that. "Love" I wasn't really expecting and can live without 'round here, but, geez, some simple Bac "conversation".......I really never imagined the absolute dearth of any real Bac players in this gaming forum.
May 16th, 2013 at 10:05:54 AM
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Quote: Mission146When you talk about streaks and trending, though, I will admit that is immaterial to me. I also don't like Baccarat
Mission146, thank you for taking both the time and the interest to respond. Much appeciated.
That said, as quoted herein, the disdain 'round here for anything "trending" or even "Baccarat" itself is blatantly obvious. Sorta leaves a serious player such as myself on the "outside looking in" at this forum. But that's my concern, Mission146, not yours. Again, thanks for your response.
May 16th, 2013 at 10:15:40 AM
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Quote: gr8playerThat said, as quoted herein, the disdain 'round here for anything "trending" or even "Baccarat" itself is blatantly obvious.
Nobody "disdains" baccarat around here. There are plenty of members who enjoy baccarat, and some of them are "serious" players. What people have criticized is the view that one can consistently win playing a negative expectation game by simply following trends and creating their own "advantage" (and ignoring what basic math says). One is better off flipping a coin than following trends.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
May 16th, 2013 at 11:48:35 AM
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Quote: Beethoven9thOne is better off flipping a coin than following trends.
Simply not a valid assumption, Beethoven9th.
Trends matter. I play this game because trends matter.
Baccarat is a closed-end shoe game. There exists, in its most simplistic terms, a beginning, a middle, and an end to each shoe. And there exists certain "traits" or "characteristics" (yes, my friends, I prefer to call them "trends") of each shoe, and each portion thereof.
They exist. Now, of course, I can almost here the collective mutterings all the way to my side of the computer: "They exist only AFTER they've happened."
True. They exist in hindsight.
But, my friends, IF they exist, even if only in hindsight, are they not then alot more RECOGNIZABLE?
And IF they are alot more RECOGNIZABLE, might a keen player with a keen trending eye learn to recognize them AS THEY UNFOLD?
That, my friends, is the very basis of trending. Learning to spot potential profits unfolding as the distinct portions of the shoe unfold. Learning to play for certain trends as they are playing out just in front of you. And learning to know when they are not (read: "no-bet").
Now, Beethoven9th, if you still wish to compare that to "coin flipping", I'm afraid that you're selling yourself short as a potential trender at this game.
There is an abundance of information that a Baccarat shoe will provide you, if only you can train yourself to listen to it well enough. Most shoes tell me how to play them. Some scream it; others, unfortunately, whisper to "back off". Most...a little bit of both. But, again, an abundance of information.
Then it's but a short ride to develope a money-management plan to "wrap around" each particular preferred trend and your own personal variances.
There's more....patience, discipline, conservative win goals/loss limits, the mental "grind" of it all....but for today, fellas, it's Thursday aft, and I'm AC bound!
I wish you all the very best of it.
May 17th, 2013 at 6:29:04 AM
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Quote: gr8playerMission146, thank you for taking both the time and the interest to respond. Much appeciated.
That said, as quoted herein, the disdain 'round here for anything "trending" or even "Baccarat" itself is blatantly obvious. Sorta leaves a serious player such as myself on the "outside looking in" at this forum. But that's my concern, Mission146, not yours. Again, thanks for your response.
You're welcome.
I'm sure I'd be into all of that if I liked Baccarat, of course. In my opinion, the House Edge on the Player bet isn't so much worse that one should completely avoid it if it is going to make the game much more fun to them. In order to play correctly, one should always bet on Banker, of course. I do hope that this trending doesn't cause anyone to make the Tie Bet, though, the House Edge on that is horrendous.
I also don't have any actual disdain for Baccarat or Baccarat players. The game is just, "Make your bet and watch what happens," despite the higher House Edge (compared to Player/Banker), Roulette would be my game of choice for that because of the potential for a bigger win at a lower House Edge (single number or corners on Roulette v. Tie Bet on Baccarat) and also just because I enjoy Roulette. My favorite games that I've actually played live are Craps and Let It Ride, though, with Blackjack and Roulette tied for a distant third.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
May 18th, 2013 at 8:27:19 AM
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Hello again, Mission146.
The house edge on Baccarat is as low as 1.01% (Banker bet on "Dragon Bonus"-no commission game), so it's pretty much as good as it gets for any casino-banked game. I don't play the tie bet, so that inflated house edge does not affect me in any way. And, as I've enumerated countless times in this forum, I am of the belief that the paltry house edge can be both negated and bested with, shall I say, calculated play on the player's part. Hmmm.....on the "savvy" player's part.
As to your casino games' enjoyment level, Mission146, and your rankings of same, I must say that I harbor no such "enjoyment preferences". I play Baccarat because I've developed a rather adept Baccarat game for myself, and, therefore, it's my best chance for success. If it were enjoyment and/or excitement I were looking for, I'd take in a movie or try walking the boardwalk alone after 2 a.m.
I plan for success, and I play for it. And I will accept nothing less from myself. If I were losing at this game, I'd cease to play it. Simple as that.
I wish you all the very best of it.
Sidenote: Yet another successful Bac trip this past Thurs nite and yesterday. Three sessions, all winners. I cannot remember, as I sit here pecking away at my keyboard, my last losing session at Baccarat. I am on a nice little winning streak, but, lest anyone think otherwise, a "well-deserved" streak. I play a game that affords me certain "outs", all determined by how the current session is unfolding. Easy sessions are, well, easy sessions. Becomes just a matter of "how much" the win will be. But the more difficult sessions, the sessions that the real battle ensues....I'll terminate those sessions at what I deem to be the very best and most opportune time, where I (preferably) made full recoup or (at the very least) got as close to even as possible (read: minimalized losses).
Ain't got much more than that, my friends. I "puts my money up and I takes my chances" just like everyone else does. But I choose to do it at a closed-end shoe game that I'm rather adept at spotting certain trends as they develope, and I choose to vary my money-management around the strike rates (read: variances) of those same trends. Just a rather "savvy" game, as I stated in the opening paragraph of this post. All designed, not by accident, not by superstition, not by luck, all DESIGNED by me to put myself in the very best possible position for long term success.
And, as always, my friends, I wish it for all of you.
The house edge on Baccarat is as low as 1.01% (Banker bet on "Dragon Bonus"-no commission game), so it's pretty much as good as it gets for any casino-banked game. I don't play the tie bet, so that inflated house edge does not affect me in any way. And, as I've enumerated countless times in this forum, I am of the belief that the paltry house edge can be both negated and bested with, shall I say, calculated play on the player's part. Hmmm.....on the "savvy" player's part.
As to your casino games' enjoyment level, Mission146, and your rankings of same, I must say that I harbor no such "enjoyment preferences". I play Baccarat because I've developed a rather adept Baccarat game for myself, and, therefore, it's my best chance for success. If it were enjoyment and/or excitement I were looking for, I'd take in a movie or try walking the boardwalk alone after 2 a.m.
I plan for success, and I play for it. And I will accept nothing less from myself. If I were losing at this game, I'd cease to play it. Simple as that.
I wish you all the very best of it.
Sidenote: Yet another successful Bac trip this past Thurs nite and yesterday. Three sessions, all winners. I cannot remember, as I sit here pecking away at my keyboard, my last losing session at Baccarat. I am on a nice little winning streak, but, lest anyone think otherwise, a "well-deserved" streak. I play a game that affords me certain "outs", all determined by how the current session is unfolding. Easy sessions are, well, easy sessions. Becomes just a matter of "how much" the win will be. But the more difficult sessions, the sessions that the real battle ensues....I'll terminate those sessions at what I deem to be the very best and most opportune time, where I (preferably) made full recoup or (at the very least) got as close to even as possible (read: minimalized losses).
Ain't got much more than that, my friends. I "puts my money up and I takes my chances" just like everyone else does. But I choose to do it at a closed-end shoe game that I'm rather adept at spotting certain trends as they develope, and I choose to vary my money-management around the strike rates (read: variances) of those same trends. Just a rather "savvy" game, as I stated in the opening paragraph of this post. All designed, not by accident, not by superstition, not by luck, all DESIGNED by me to put myself in the very best possible position for long term success.
And, as always, my friends, I wish it for all of you.
June 20th, 2013 at 8:26:52 AM
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Hi Gr8player,
Please check your private message FYI
Thanks,
Ongsoc
Please check your private message FYI
Thanks,
Ongsoc
June 22nd, 2013 at 7:32:21 PM
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So this where you surface!! Must admit I don't visit this site often, even mentalcor is here, not surprised he didn't like BF, after all he was kicked from that site early on.Quote: gr8playerPlease pardon my indulgence as I ask the following questions of my fellow members:
Does anyone know of any relatively active, current Baccarat forum that I might be able to visit? Alternatively, might anyone know of any general gaming forum that has, at the very least, a Baccarat section within it?
I'm looking to engage in a bit more "Bac talk" than I'm afforded in this forum. That statement isn't meant to demean anyone in this forum or the forum itself, for I think it is more a matter of a misjudgement on my part as to what I perceived this forum to be about. That said, I feel absolutely compelled to add that this forum provides a wonderful service for its members and/or readership, and I am quite pleased to be a part of it.
I thank you, in advance, for any assistance and/or direction to a forum a bit more amenable to a Baccarat player such as myself.
To address your enquiry posted a few months back, yes there is a serious discussion group related to the game of Baccarat, in fact it's mine. Unfortunately due to thus far pulling 900+ units from my last seven consecutive casino visits (playing Punto Banco) and posting the full details including graphics of shoes, I have taken the administrative decision not to accept any new members at this moment in time. While I don't mind sharing details with fellow players, as I always consider the casinos thy enemy, there is nothing in it for me, one has to have a degree of hardness to survive battling casinos and the tactics they employ. Would never claim to be an AP (will leave that to those that play casino games were an actual advantage exists) , rather I just try to do my best at what I do and have been for over a decade.
Now as you some well know, I place no substance in trending, I'll go as far as to say that it belongs up there with Santa Claus and the tooth fairies when it comes to the game of Baccarat. I've no interest in that aspect of the game, yet as with any bet selection approach, they are what they are. Nothing more than a mechanism for the gambler to decide when and when not to bet and which side according to his beliefs / system. If something works for you, then 'fine and dandy', that is all that matters.
Having played this game for a lot long than since 2009 and currently playing five nights per week (it would be 7, but the Chinese don't play Fri & Sat's so the casino won't open the table, certainly not for me, besides dislike playing solo and having to bet every hand). I do have my opinion on GR8's latter success, IMO it is down to a combination of composure, utmost discipline and primarily money management. I observe players over-betting, losing their cool night after night, perhaps the tables need to beat you senseless, before you come to your senses.
For all the maths-heads and skeptics, just so you don't take away the impression I'm engaging in some kind of pissing up the wall contest. Compete details how I play are available on my private board which is not accepting members and will soon relocate. We all have our own way of approaching the game of Baccarat, mine happens to be based on binary tables (yes they also resolve to a 50-50 state), has been for years. Not under-mining the fact that every hand remains a 50-50 proposition, however composure / discipline and solid MM are of more significance than the former. To heed menscor advice, it's best that I keep the rest quiet.
IMO while appreciating everybody has to start somewhere, it can be a tough game on newbies, at the end of the day, whatever works, so long as it works, that is all you really need to be concerned about.
June 22nd, 2013 at 9:10:48 PM
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Oh... he's baaaaaaaack. Looks like Johno's site has lost its luster and needs the attention to draw in the gullible. Another BF in the making perhaps?
gr8, Looks like he can never get enough of you and follows you around like a lost puppy.
On a much more interesting note, Steve Wynn just won phase one of building his casino in Everett, MA. A 86% resident approval. Now hopefully he wins phase two and gets the license to do so. Everett looks more welcoming than what he faced at Foxborough. If Wynn gets the license this would put Everett on the map. Plus maybe I wouldn't have to drag myself to Vegas so much. http://www.wynnineverett.com/
This also goes for his Philly project too yet not as welcoming as in Everett. http://wynnphiladelphia.com/
gr8, Looks like he can never get enough of you and follows you around like a lost puppy.
On a much more interesting note, Steve Wynn just won phase one of building his casino in Everett, MA. A 86% resident approval. Now hopefully he wins phase two and gets the license to do so. Everett looks more welcoming than what he faced at Foxborough. If Wynn gets the license this would put Everett on the map. Plus maybe I wouldn't have to drag myself to Vegas so much. http://www.wynnineverett.com/
This also goes for his Philly project too yet not as welcoming as in Everett. http://wynnphiladelphia.com/
June 23rd, 2013 at 6:19:34 AM
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Perhaps if you opened your eyes instead of your beak and took a look at the joined date!
In 2013 Gambling forums are old hat, most if not all boards are on their knees. Being a prominent poster on gambling forum doesn't exactly bring home the bacon, nor does it count for much in the grand scheme things. Nowadays I prefer to let my action do the talking, however it is good to unwind occasionally, one needs an out-let for the pent up pressure of 5 hours of built up serotonin.
I did find it rather amusing to think you spent three sessions worth of profit on a LA hooker.
In 2013 Gambling forums are old hat, most if not all boards are on their knees. Being a prominent poster on gambling forum doesn't exactly bring home the bacon, nor does it count for much in the grand scheme things. Nowadays I prefer to let my action do the talking, however it is good to unwind occasionally, one needs an out-let for the pent up pressure of 5 hours of built up serotonin.
I did find it rather amusing to think you spent three sessions worth of profit on a LA hooker.
June 23rd, 2013 at 3:36:28 PM
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Quote: Always Bleeding ChipsI did find it rather amusing to think you spent three sessions worth of profit on a LA hooker.
And you are actually gullible and naive enough to believe that. Then I have a bridge to sell you. Now if I did spend that money on a hooker that is still more than what you will ever make at the tables with your Nostradamus tealeaves binary tables. That is even if you play at all. ROFL.
Quote: Always Bleeding ChipsNowadays I prefer to let my action do the talking, however it is good to unwind occasionally, one needs an out-let for the pent up pressure of 5 hours of built up serotonin.
In other words you lost big. Again as always. And now you go to internet sites hoping to milk off and leech off other people's work (Killer's "system") since folks finally saw through your fluff and leaving your board in droves. If that doesn't work you just go online and stalk someone and then leave threatening messages on their voice mail. LOL. +900 units win my ass. More like -900 units and you have to sell shirts on eBay or go silver coin collecting to buy stale expired cat food to feed yourself.
Quote: Always Bleeding Chipsmost if not all boards are on their knees.
Just because your board sucks and bleeding members doesn't mean all boards are. Many poker sites for instance have great information and a few members who are great in dispelling the importance of mental game techniques. One of them wrote a book or two that are must reads whether you are a poker player or not since the strategies can be applied to other things beyond card games. I have seen your Real World Casino Action and it is mostly you yapping nothing but mental fart. That was why I left so quick then you turned on yours truly because I am smart enough to realize your site as you would call it.... WAFFLE.
Okay I am done. Said my piece or else this stalker is going continue his usual drivel since his therapist is avoiding him and the meds are not working for him anymore.
October 1st, 2013 at 10:48:41 PM
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Quote: gr8playerHello all. I just happened upon this open forum, and decided to join it, as I'm familiar with Wiz's other site and always found it both repectful and enlightening. And, in my brief perusal here, this appears similar.
By way of introduction, I'm a confirmed Baccarat "trender", and I've previously posted, rather extensively, at both the Glen and Baccarat Forum sites.
While I've seen both a Blackjack and Craps section here, I've seen no Baccarat section, and I can't help but wonder why, seeing as how there's probably 5 tables of Baccarat to every single table of Craps at most AC and CT joints.
Anyhow, here's a request for a new Baccarat section, all in the hopes that those that are interested might be a bit more inclined to discuss the(ir) game here in this forum if there existed a dedicated section.
Sidenote: Yes, I am fully aware of the Wiz's stance on "trending", and it's viability (or, should I say, lack thereof) as it pertains to games of chance. I trust, however, that he wouldn't object to anyone discussing their personal beliefs and/or experiences regarding same.
I look forward to some open discussions.
I agree, there should be a Category for Baccarat as the forum grows, so do members and Thread topics.
ADMIN: Make another Category and Call it BACCARAT Please.
"If it ain't Broke, Don't fix it"
<br>
"Please note that my threads & posts are strictly for Educational purposes only and I do not care if you choose to Win or Lose your money. "
<br>
"Sometimes, Its not about the money, Its about being able to say yea, It can be done, and claim victory. That's Genius!!!"
<br>
"There is a range of views among mathematicians and philosophers as to the exact scope and definition of mathematics."
October 1st, 2013 at 11:08:22 PM
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Quote: treetopbuddyI'm currently running through RNG's in 8 deck Baccarat on the Wizards site. I'm nearly half way through 1000 decks nearly 40,000 hands. Yeah, no life. My first observation is that Baccarat doesn't kick out as many runs or at least the runs seem to be shorter. Just an observation. Longest player/banker streak 10. In Roulette at 40,000 spins you could expect to see 10 plus runs of 15 or more. I'll crack the game by dinner.
In response to this, I would recommend REstarting your Experiment.
Baccarat is one of the Best Casino Games as far as Runs / Streaks are concerned. Just last month alone there was at least 10 tables here that had a run of 12-13 Bankers (10 out of approx 250 shoes dealt) (Unofficial) as far as I can see in my perspective.
Also out of that 250 shoes I've also seen over the last couple months, approx 70-75 shoes having runs of 8,9 and 10 (Unofficial)
here is a math question.
* 13 tables x approx 1hr per shoe = 13 x 24hrs = 312 shoes dealt per day
* each 6 hrs/Session I see at least 2 tables running a streak of 10 x 4 = 8 streaks of 10 per day.
* each 6 hrs/Session I see at least 6 tables running a streak of 8 x 4 = 32 streaks of 8 per day.
* each 6 hrs/Session I see at least 10 tables running a streak of 6 every hour x 24hrs = 144 streaks of 6 per day.
* all the other tables from 312 shoes dealt per day are Crap, but still are profitable on the short runs.
Hope this info can provide some insight to the Game of Baccarat.
"If it ain't Broke, Don't fix it"
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"Please note that my threads & posts are strictly for Educational purposes only and I do not care if you choose to Win or Lose your money. "
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"Sometimes, Its not about the money, Its about being able to say yea, It can be done, and claim victory. That's Genius!!!"
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"There is a range of views among mathematicians and philosophers as to the exact scope and definition of mathematics."
October 1st, 2013 at 11:26:41 PM
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Quote: gr8playerMission146, thank you for taking both the time and the interest to respond. Much appeciated.
That said, as quoted herein, the disdain 'round here for anything "trending" or even "Baccarat" itself is blatantly obvious. Sorta leaves a serious player such as myself on the "outside looking in" at this forum. But that's my concern, Mission146, not yours. Again, thanks for your response.
Attention to Wizard, Mission146, or other admins, Please create a Category for Baccarat and also a Category for Sic Bo. (Sic Bo is Craps, Roulette, Big Six, and many other casino games all wrapped up into one game)
"If it ain't Broke, Don't fix it"
<br>
"Please note that my threads & posts are strictly for Educational purposes only and I do not care if you choose to Win or Lose your money. "
<br>
"Sometimes, Its not about the money, Its about being able to say yea, It can be done, and claim victory. That's Genius!!!"
<br>
"There is a range of views among mathematicians and philosophers as to the exact scope and definition of mathematics."
October 1st, 2013 at 11:31:07 PM
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Quote: DMSCRQuote: treetopbuddywell, you won't have to worry about me spilling the beansQuote: DMSCRWhat I am afraid of about baccarat is not my method(s) going stale and I have been defeated by the game and I have to close shop (knock on wood). What I am truly afraid of is baccarat becoming games like black jack and poker. When the game has become efficient. I mean by this is that some Thorp-like genius comes in and opens his/her trap and ruins the game for everyone. For the moment drop by your local Barnes & Noble and head to the gaming section. You see tons and tons of books on black jack and poker. I know many of these books are fluff but there are many that are worthy of the paper they are written on. Like the famous Beat the Dealer for black jack or The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler. These great books have truly given the player the edge to extract money at the tables. I don't want this to happen to baccarat at all. I want this game to remain elusive for the masses where not many people would be jumping into this. For those that do I want them to be naive and be possessed by their own greed, fear and hope without the willing effort to put in the work to keep the illusion going so the casinos would not have to adjust and adapt new ways to make it hard to extract chips from the table to my pockets.
Well if you do find out something that works and you are consistently profitable, keep your mouth shut! And just go on your stealth mode and extract your chips and disappear. Rinse and repeat. LOL.
Hey man, Everyone has their own unique style of playing and the Casino's have ton's of cash that will never run out. If you have a cool moneymaking technique, Share it, don't be so greedy... :P
"If it ain't Broke, Don't fix it"
<br>
"Please note that my threads & posts are strictly for Educational purposes only and I do not care if you choose to Win or Lose your money. "
<br>
"Sometimes, Its not about the money, Its about being able to say yea, It can be done, and claim victory. That's Genius!!!"
<br>
"There is a range of views among mathematicians and philosophers as to the exact scope and definition of mathematics."
October 1st, 2013 at 11:35:53 PM
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Quote: teamswindlergr8player -
I have a question for you. My local casinos are now offering no commission no collection baccarat. The only caveat is when the banker gets a third card and totals 7, then its a push for the banker instead of a win.
So my question is, if i were to continuously bet 1 unit on each side and continue to bet 1 unit on the losing side, but on the winning side progress positively using the 1324 method and returning back to 1 unit after the 4th win, is it possible to grind out a victory. The plan is to quit once i am up 5 units.
In other words, if the player wins 4 in a row, it would profit 10 units while losing 4 units on the banker side at the same time, thus netting 6 units. So it seems that if EITHER side has a nice run, then I should come out positive. A loss would occur if one either side only wins 2 in a row.
Curious of your thoughts.
I don't mean to interrupt you but from hearing what you say.... Ride the wave man, that is good stuff to hear. I'm gonna plan a trip to that casino. pm me address and I'll play there. no commission no collection baccarat. Yeah Baby, I'll play that 4-6 hrs per day.
"If it ain't Broke, Don't fix it"
<br>
"Please note that my threads & posts are strictly for Educational purposes only and I do not care if you choose to Win or Lose your money. "
<br>
"Sometimes, Its not about the money, Its about being able to say yea, It can be done, and claim victory. That's Genius!!!"
<br>
"There is a range of views among mathematicians and philosophers as to the exact scope and definition of mathematics."
October 1st, 2013 at 11:40:40 PM
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Quote: gr8playerI'd scrap the "Target Method" as well, if I were you. Those "huge spreads" are much too huge, IMHO. Huge spreads mean that even when you make some money, you're making a minimal amount, but when you lose...KABLAM! Ditch it, my friend.
As you "play around with my progression", bear in mind that with mine or any negative progression, a potentially larger-than-normal loss could arise if you fail to use caution. Like:
I remain at any level if I lost that level by only 3W vs 4L, or, in other words, a minus 1 (-1). Only if I lost that level with a -3 or a -5 or a -7 will I move up to the next level in my progression.
I also will revert back down to the prior level as I recoup that last lost level. So, say I'm that I'm down 9 units, losing 3 at level 1 and 3 at level two, I will go to level 3, but as soon as I am a +2 at level 3, which recouped my -3 from level 2, I will immediately revert back to level 2 to recoup the remaining 3 units from level 1. Like this:
-1 +1 -1 -1 -1 +1 -1 = -3
-2 +2 -2 -2 -2 -2 +2 = -6
-3 +3 +3 +3 = +6...now the loss from level 2 has been recouped, so revert back to level 2 to recoup that -3 from level 1.
Again, TTB, all just a matter of common sense.
And, one last thing, if I find myself living a bit too much (read: too often) in "3-ville" (read: level 3) or higher, I'd seek a new bet selection process. The current strike rate just isn't good enough for this progression and you're playing with fire in that case.
Take care.....
Wow! there is alot of -minus signs in this post. Whatever happened to just positive progressive betting like back in the good old days?
"If it ain't Broke, Don't fix it"
<br>
"Please note that my threads & posts are strictly for Educational purposes only and I do not care if you choose to Win or Lose your money. "
<br>
"Sometimes, Its not about the money, Its about being able to say yea, It can be done, and claim victory. That's Genius!!!"
<br>
"There is a range of views among mathematicians and philosophers as to the exact scope and definition of mathematics."
October 2nd, 2013 at 10:13:00 AM
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Quote: varmentiWow! there is alot of -minus signs in this post. Whatever happened to just positive progressive betting like back in the good old days?
Hello, Varmenti.
The reason for the "lots of minus signs" in my posted example was because I was attempting to illustrate how one would navigate through the various levels of my "Gr8Player's Progression".
It is, IMHO, a rather effective progression, given its very nature as a slight negative progression. Combined with a decent bet selection process, one could do rather well with it, either on a linear level or a session-to-session level, or both.
As to your "positive progression" comment, Varmenti, it's really "six of one and a half dozen of the other". In other words, same difference. You see, my friend, every progression, be it of the positive or negative variety, will yield the same results over the long term, simply by calculating your average bet size within said progression. It all boils down to that ABS calculation.
Where the difference really matters is more of a personal nature....each player has their own playing style and comfort level. Both bet selection- and money management-wise. So one would be best served to seek out the sort of MM plan that suits their play best; one that gets them to their desired goals as efficiently as possible. Over the long term. We are always best served to remember that each session's results become less and less imperative as we look at our Baccarat play with that much broader long term view. Then build your plans around that.
Stay well, my friend.
October 2nd, 2013 at 11:27:10 AM
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gr8player....you keep coming back for more. EvenBob who chairs the Lady's Sewing Center lives for your post. Cut him off. Simply concede that you can never beat the house and EvenBob will have no reason to crawl over to his computer, wither up and.......
Each day is better than the next
October 8th, 2013 at 4:06:04 PM
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Quote: gr8playerWe are always best served to remember that each session's results become less and less imperative as we look at our Baccarat play with that much broader long term view.
Please pardon my indulgence as I re-visit my original thread, but I've no alternative mode of discussing my Baccarat theories in this particular forum:
Becoming a 5%er:
Raise your hand if you know the very worst thing that a player can do in terms of session play?:
One word: Undercapitalization
The majority of players are, frankly, their own worst enemies at the tables, whenever they are over-betting their positions.
I see it all the time. Bac players that buy-in for $500 and proceed to bet $100, $200, maybe more...all on their very first bet. Heaven Forbid that they lose, because you know darn well that the bulk of their remaining BR is going up on their very next bet. How can anyone play like that? Think about it: If you lose your first couple of bets, you're virtually destroyed before you gave yourself a chance to get started. And, frankly, even if you're fortunate enough to win on occasion, all that'll do is serve as "negative re-inforcement" where you'll find yourself justifying such blatant over-betting with regularity. A recipe for disaster either way.
Undercapitalization. Along with greed, probably the most likely cause for failure for most players. Players over-betting their bankrolls.
Think about it: What's the defining "commodity" in the casino? Chips. Gotta have chips to put into play, or it's out you go. So let's concede that "chip management" (read: money management) is of paramount importance to our casino play. OK. We got to that point, now what's the obvious question that needs to be answered:
How can we best conserve our bankrolls while still putting ourselves in the very best position to succeed, within reasonable time constraints and reasonable win goals?
Easy.
The 5% Rule
Never make any bet that risks more than 5% of your session bankroll. Buy-in is $1000? Bets should be capped at $50.
(Sidenote: Not 20 units, necessarily. Even with your $1000 buy in, a unit could be 20 or 25 dollars. Doesn't have to be 50. In fact, if you like to parlay or even half-parlay, better to keep original bets lower than those "pressed" bets.)
Now, why the 5%? I'll tell you why: Variance. For Goodness Sakes, give yourself a fighting chance at catching a positive variance sometime within each and every session. That's the reason for the 5% Rule. If you've got "half a game", while any single 5% can come and go at each turn-of-a-card, that other 95% had better be an "alligator wrestle" for the casino to pry outta your hands. Why make it any easier than that for the casino to get the better of you?
OK. We're betting capped at 5%, and we're in it to win it. A couple of preferred trends that we like to latch onto...here's hoping they appear for us somewhere within our session. Great if they do...heck, maybe even a sprinkled half- or full-parlay will get us to our win goal even more efficiently. Ooh..I mentioned "win goal"...what might a 5%er have in mind? 30% tops, 10% minimum, and accept anything in between. I'll explain:
Learn to recognize the volatility of each individual session. Is it happening that every time you get up 4 units you're dropping back down to even? Can't get to those preferred 6 units? I'd consider ending this session the very next +3 or, at most +4. Or maybe you started down about 4 or 5 units, and you've turned it around to even? Depending on the time already expired into this particular session, I'd seek my 10% and scoot. So adjust your goals to the current temperature of each session and how it's going.
Now, lastly, a loss. How do we handle a session bankroll loss? Same way. Still, at next session, we're playing as a 5%er. BUUUTTT:
Five percent of an adjusted buy-in. Adjusted upwards, for a more efficient recoup, as I'm looking for some variance upswings. Might happen, Heck...should happen, again if you've got "half a game". If, however, another loss ensues, well, in that case, you're next buy-in will require yet another adjustment upward. The 5% Rule remains intact, but your bets are raised because your buy-in is higher. Your positive variance is coming. Play for it.
OK, so when do we simply "run out of money"? Ahh, my friends...we've come to the very best part of being a 5%er. When do we simply "run out of money"? NEVER. That's why we're 5%ers. Bankroll preservation. Our total bankrolls will more than cover a couple of full losses. (Sidenote: I play this game, not computer play it, but casino play it, and I'm here to tell you: losing two consecutive full buy-ins is, indeed, a RARITY.)
If you don't have enough money to play this game the right way, DON'T PLAY AT ALL. For, as just another undercapitalized player, you're doomed to failure. You must have enough money behind you to follow your adjusted variances and their potential upswings. Anything less is simply "selling yourself short", IMHO.
(IMPERATIVE READING: I am not posting in this forum because I've nothing better to do. I post for those that might glean some advantages to what I've written. BUUUTTT, that said, what I've written could be just as harmful, if in the wrong hands. What do I mean by that? If you're not an experienced player, with an idea of the nature of your bet selection process and the variances of same....then no form of money management will take you where you want to go. I post for those that already have an idea of exactly where their personal Bac game is at, and may simply need some impetus into a better direction for their play.)
I wish you all the very best of it.
October 8th, 2013 at 4:20:51 PM
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Quote: gr8playerPlease pardon my indulgence as I re-visit my original thread, but I've no alternative mode of discussing my Baccarat theories in this particular forum:
Becoming a 5%er:
Raise your hand if you know the very worst thing that a player can do in terms of session play?:
Beethoven, I hope you brought your sack lunch, because class is back in session. You didn't forget your apple, did you?
October 8th, 2013 at 4:24:07 PM
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" Raise your hand if you know the very worst thing that a player can do in terms of session play?:"
Believe any of these bullshit systems and put your money on the line.
Now, what did I win and can I put my hand down now ?
Believe any of these bullshit systems and put your money on the line.
Now, what did I win and can I put my hand down now ?
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
October 8th, 2013 at 4:31:43 PM
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gr8player, what you call the 5% rule is known as Kelly betting. I doubt there is a member of this forum that isn't aware of it. Please tell us something new and different.
October 8th, 2013 at 5:50:07 PM
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Quote: rob45Beethoven, I hope you brought your sack lunch, because class is back in session. You didn't forget your apple, did you?
Sure didn't! :)
To my esteemed teacher, gr8player: Are these the same theories that you used when you lost $250,000 at baccarat? Or are these your modified theories?
I apologize in advance for bringing up your $250K loss again, teacher, but I just want to make sure that I use the proper theories. Also, have you accepted the challenge yet?
Thank you for your poignant post, my esteemed teacher! I wish you the very best of it!
Fighting BS one post at a time!
October 10th, 2013 at 7:58:33 PM
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The gr88888888888888888888888888888888one knocks it outta the park, again, hey hey!
" Life is a well of joy; but where the rabble drinks too, all wells are poisoned!" Nietzsche
October 12th, 2013 at 8:20:24 AM
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And the soxster is back in town! Welcome, man, how've you been? I hope you're still killin' 'em at the tables.
October 12th, 2013 at 6:29:19 PM
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Quote: gr8playerAnd the soxster is back in town! Welcome, man, how've you been? I hope you're still killin' 'em at the tables.
Good to see that yer still around and still feuding with the john-O! I'm well, and still grinding a fulltime income at the bac table. Lots of AP wiseguys on this forum, I must say. I bet some of these cats won't even got to the latrine less they figure they have some kinda "edge", hey hey.
" Life is a well of joy; but where the rabble drinks too, all wells are poisoned!" Nietzsche
October 12th, 2013 at 6:39:30 PM
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Is this what I'm watching?
Fighting BS one post at a time!
