NBA Picks
March 10th, 2012 at 6:58:41 AM
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I happen to like to dabble in sports betting. My holy grail is to be able to achieve a 75% win rate. I believe it is possible.
So, as a tracking mechanism and to elicit commentary, I'm going to post picks here every day and track the win rate.
Today's picks are:
Washington Wizards +5
New Jersey Nets +3.5
Memphis Grizzlies -2
So, as a tracking mechanism and to elicit commentary, I'm going to post picks here every day and track the win rate.
Today's picks are:
Washington Wizards +5
New Jersey Nets +3.5
Memphis Grizzlies -2
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 10th, 2012 at 7:24:56 AM
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Thanks for the warning
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
March 10th, 2012 at 7:30:26 AM
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Quote: steeldcoI happen to like to dabble in sports betting. My holy grail is to be able to achieve a 75% win rate. I believe it is possible.
So, as a tracking mechanism and to elicit commentary, I'm going to post picks here every day and track the win rate.
Today's picks are:
Washington Wizards +5
New Jersey Nets +3.5
Memphis Grizzlies -2
A 75% win rate is not possible, unless you plan on making about 4 picks in your life. Aim lower.
March 10th, 2012 at 8:14:06 AM
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Quote: steeldcoI happen to like to dabble in sports betting. My holy grail is to be able to achieve a 75% win rate. I believe it is possible.
So, as a tracking mechanism and to elicit commentary, I'm going to post picks here every day and track the win rate.
Today's picks are:
Washington Wizards +5
New Jersey Nets +3.5
Memphis Grizzlies -2
Kudos for the attempt. Are you just using your 'feelings' to make these selections? Or some info that is unavailable to the public (and linemakers)? Or some deep mathematical analysis? I agree that 75% is a ridiculous goal. If you can get to 60% on even money bets, you will never need to work a day for the rest of your life.
March 10th, 2012 at 10:33:11 AM
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It's based upon a mathematical analysis of ytd stats and stats over a recent, shorter period. Will it work? We'll see. I'm willing to publish and accept the negative commentary if I fail. There are some things that are impossible.......I honestly do not believe that a 75% win rate is impossible. However, in all fairness, I have felt like a fool at times in the past.......
As usual, only time will tell.
As usual, only time will tell.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 10th, 2012 at 10:49:27 AM
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I'm back just to clarify one of my thoughts.
If I had to pick the entire board then I would agree with you that 75% would be impossible. However, since I only end up with 0 to 3 picks a day, I do believe that I can hit the 75%.
If I had to pick the entire board then I would agree with you that 75% would be impossible. However, since I only end up with 0 to 3 picks a day, I do believe that I can hit the 75%.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 10th, 2012 at 11:16:17 AM
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Any math guys out there? I would say that if I hit less than 50% over the first 3-4 days then I might as well go back to the drawing board. My chances, after a performance like that, of achieving a 75% win rate would be near nil.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 10th, 2012 at 12:57:09 PM
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Since you are picking the point spreads, I may be wrong but,Quote: steeldcoI happen to like to dabble in sports betting. My holy grail is to be able to achieve a 75% win rate. I believe it is possible.
most point spreads at the very start are a 50/50 prop unless the books just flat out miss the computer numbers.
Sure the spread can move after it is first set for a number of reasons.
So, after 50 wagers on a 50/50 bet, you would need to pick at least 38 correctly to hit your 75% mark.
0.0001529320 is the probability of that or about 1 in 6539. Maybe.
100 wagers on a 50/50 bet, you would need to pick at least 75 correctly.
0.0000002818 is the probability of that or about 1 in 3,548,616. Maybe not.
So, you really need the books to post spreads that are in you favor to increase the winning percentage.
added: If the point spread would be a 55/45 prop
100 wagers on a 55/45 bet, you would still need to pick at least 75 correctly.
0.0000286091 is the probability of that or about 1 in 34,954.
So, how can we now bet against you?
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
March 10th, 2012 at 1:14:49 PM
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You stated "Since you are picking the point spreads, I may be wrong but,
most point spreads at the very start are a 50/50 prop unless the books just flat out miss the computer numbers". That, to me, is the key. I believe the spreads are set to some degree according to the public's betting preference. It is those instances that I believe I can take advantage of. Maybe..... Hopefully....
Love the challenge though.
You stated "So, how can we now bet against you?"
Now, you know the answer to that. Simply go to the book and go the other way.
Thank you.
most point spreads at the very start are a 50/50 prop unless the books just flat out miss the computer numbers". That, to me, is the key. I believe the spreads are set to some degree according to the public's betting preference. It is those instances that I believe I can take advantage of. Maybe..... Hopefully....
Love the challenge though.
You stated "So, how can we now bet against you?"
Now, you know the answer to that. Simply go to the book and go the other way.
Thank you.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 10th, 2012 at 1:23:23 PM
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My understanding is the point spread moves by the public *after* it is set by computer analysis.Quote: steeldcoYou stated "Since you are picking the point spreads, I may be wrong but,
most point spreads at the very start are a 50/50 prop unless the books just flat out miss the computer numbers".
That, to me, is the key.
I believe the spreads are set to some degree according to the public's betting preference.
from covers.com
NBA this year
Against The Spread Trends (ATS)
Favorites 309-312-3 49.76%
Dogs 312-309-3 50.24%
Why don't you tell us how many games you will bet on, then say how many you will win as a minimum and give us some odds you would be willing to bet.
That would make it more fun.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
March 10th, 2012 at 1:34:05 PM
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"My understanding is the point spread moves by the public *after* it is set by computer analysis"
Now, that's not my understanding. I could be wrong though. The books set the line to balance betting when they set the line. Movement occurs when they have miscalculated or an event occurs to cause the public to believe it impacts the outcome.
I can't say, in advance of gameday, how many games I am going to pick. I can reiterate that my goal is 75% winners and I'll come back here to take the abuse if I fail.
Now, that's not my understanding. I could be wrong though. The books set the line to balance betting when they set the line. Movement occurs when they have miscalculated or an event occurs to cause the public to believe it impacts the outcome.
I can't say, in advance of gameday, how many games I am going to pick. I can reiterate that my goal is 75% winners and I'll come back here to take the abuse if I fail.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 10th, 2012 at 8:24:08 PM
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I understand that.Quote: steeldcoI can't say, in advance of gameday, how many games I am going to pick. I can reiterate that my goal is 75% winners and I'll come back here to take the abuse if I fail.
But by the end of the NBA season, you should at least make 50 bets.
Lets bet on how many of the 50 you will win.
You will need to win at least 38 of them.
Looks like your system is now 0-3 meaning that you need to win at least 38 out of the next 47.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
March 10th, 2012 at 8:30:41 PM
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I happen to like to dabble in sports betting. My holy grail is to be able to achieve a 75% win rate. I believe it is possible.
What superior knowledge do you posees that mere mortals do not What a joke. ROFLMAO !
What superior knowledge do you posees that mere mortals do not What a joke. ROFLMAO !
March 10th, 2012 at 9:19:04 PM
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I'm sure he will not tell us.Quote: buzzpaffWhat superior knowledge do you posees that mere mortals do not What a joke. ROFLMAO !
But OP says he will post his picks. (or hers)
We now have to wait.
Always waiting.
South Park is back on!
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
March 11th, 2012 at 8:51:44 AM
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7craps,
If nothing else, this stuff teaches ya humility. I have been thoroughly humbled and worse, it now, as you correctly point out, will take a fantastic win rate in order to achieve the 75%. An o-fer right out of the gate. This is awfully discouraging. But that's okay. You don't fail if you don't try but then you don't succeed either.
There are no picks for today. I'll be back tomorrow, but a couple of additional bad days will send me back to the drawing board..........
I am now officially 0-3 for a win rate of 0% YTD. Sheesh.....just writing that hurts.........
If nothing else, this stuff teaches ya humility. I have been thoroughly humbled and worse, it now, as you correctly point out, will take a fantastic win rate in order to achieve the 75%. An o-fer right out of the gate. This is awfully discouraging. But that's okay. You don't fail if you don't try but then you don't succeed either.
There are no picks for today. I'll be back tomorrow, but a couple of additional bad days will send me back to the drawing board..........
I am now officially 0-3 for a win rate of 0% YTD. Sheesh.....just writing that hurts.........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 11th, 2012 at 9:04:50 AM
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Maybe I missed it, but why or how did you pick 75%? As I mentioned, if you could really reliably hit 60% you would never have to work another day in your life. Perhaps if you share with us why you selected those first three bets, we can show you the error of your ways. i remember a friend once telling me something like Boston should be a lock, they should be favored by way more than the line is, they score blah blah at home, the road team hasn't covered in blah blah.. i asked him if he knew that Rondo and Pierce were injured... He said ...oh.... the bookies are pretty darn good at setting their lines. I can see some astute person perhaps getting to a few percent over 50 consistently, but 75 just will not be happening on any reasonable sample size.
March 11th, 2012 at 9:17:34 AM
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I can't tell you why those picks were selected without spending hours on it. It's based upon statistical data with recent trend getting a greater weighting.
I had developed this since the beginning of this season and tested it for a 2 week period (agreed that it's a short time frame) and ended up with picks that yielded an 88% rate when it picked home teams and an 83% rate when it picked favorites. Yes. There's some overlap between the 2. Based upon those extremely high rates, I was comfortable with 75%.
Now I just have to be comfortable feeling like an ass...........
I had developed this since the beginning of this season and tested it for a 2 week period (agreed that it's a short time frame) and ended up with picks that yielded an 88% rate when it picked home teams and an 83% rate when it picked favorites. Yes. There's some overlap between the 2. Based upon those extremely high rates, I was comfortable with 75%.
Now I just have to be comfortable feeling like an ass...........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 11th, 2012 at 10:23:44 AM
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FWIW,
Here are the numbers for the 2 week test period prior to yesterday:
Total 62.96%
Favorites 83.33%
Dogs 58.54%
Home 88.89%
Away 50.00%
After yesterday's 0-fer:
Total 59.32%
Favorites 76.92%
Dogs 55.56%
Home 80.00%
Away 48.72%
I chose to only publish a Favorite or Home team since those were the highest % wins and also exceeded my 75% goal.
Here are the numbers for the 2 week test period prior to yesterday:
Total 62.96%
Favorites 83.33%
Dogs 58.54%
Home 88.89%
Away 50.00%
After yesterday's 0-fer:
Total 59.32%
Favorites 76.92%
Dogs 55.56%
Home 80.00%
Away 48.72%
I chose to only publish a Favorite or Home team since those were the highest % wins and also exceeded my 75% goal.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 11th, 2012 at 10:36:04 AM
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Here is why 75% is nearly impossible (at least this is how I look at it).
If I were to play 100 games- I will win at least 25 games and lose at least 25 games (it doesn't matter if I'm a good/bad handicapper). IMO approximately half of all games will win/lose for reasons that cannot be predicted via sound handicapping. It's the "Sh!t Happens" reasoning.
That leaves 50 games- I would need to win all 50 of these remaining games to achieve 75% win rate. It's not going to happen.
My own personal goal using the above example- I aim to win 60% of the "middle 50 games"; win 30, lose 20. This will leave an overall record of 55-45, and a small flat bet profit.
If I were to play 100 games- I will win at least 25 games and lose at least 25 games (it doesn't matter if I'm a good/bad handicapper). IMO approximately half of all games will win/lose for reasons that cannot be predicted via sound handicapping. It's the "Sh!t Happens" reasoning.
That leaves 50 games- I would need to win all 50 of these remaining games to achieve 75% win rate. It's not going to happen.
My own personal goal using the above example- I aim to win 60% of the "middle 50 games"; win 30, lose 20. This will leave an overall record of 55-45, and a small flat bet profit.
"I don't have a gambling problem. I have a financial problem."
March 11th, 2012 at 10:43:51 AM
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Why not just go back to last years NBA season. The stats and results are available.Quote: steeldcoI had developed this since the beginning of this season and tested it for a 2 week period (agreed that it's a short time frame)... Based upon those extremely high rates, I was comfortable with 75%.
Now I just have to be comfortable feeling like an ass...........
Apply your system and see how it would have done.
Then you can do the year before and see if you get the same results.
Results from the short run tells us what we can not expect from the long run
Results from the long run tells us what we can expect from the short run (more data, more outcomes)
How did your stats miss the blow outs from yesterday?
OKC after a home loss playing a high school team? -17. I took the points and the money line (money line parlayed with the Bulls game).
Bulls same thing, -10 except they did not play a high school team.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
March 11th, 2012 at 1:04:03 PM
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7craps,
Although I probably could go back to last season, it would probably take me one helluva a long time to go thru the entire season. I just don't have that amount of time available.
It threw out OKC as a pick because the Bobcats had covered 3 in a row. The algorithm throws out anything that would go against a streak.
Similarly, the Bulls had lost (not covered) 3 in a row and consequently also were not a pick.
Although I probably could go back to last season, it would probably take me one helluva a long time to go thru the entire season. I just don't have that amount of time available.
It threw out OKC as a pick because the Bobcats had covered 3 in a row. The algorithm throws out anything that would go against a streak.
Similarly, the Bulls had lost (not covered) 3 in a row and consequently also were not a pick.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 11th, 2012 at 1:13:03 PM
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Ill take your bets any day of the week steeldco!! I know you think you can consitantly pick 75% of you games correctly vs the spread... you put your money where your mouth is and took the risk of posting your picks before gametime. I applaud you on that note and not trying to scam people on 'already winners', but BRO, you went 0-3, that is 00%! That is Mush material! Horrible! What are your picks for tomorrow? I would like to fade them... lol Sorry, I couldnt resist. Im sure you will do better next time.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
March 11th, 2012 at 1:28:24 PM
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Dan,
I'm not sure that I know how to respond other than to say that I think we have to disagree. Your logic above is reasonably sound if you were trying to pick the entire board. I just don't think that it necessarily applies if you're selecting only certain games based upon a set of circumstances and yes Sh!t Happens which is why you will have losers.
So, let me restate my goal so as to avoid the possibility/impossibilty debate. I will strive for 75% but settle for 60%.
I'm not sure that I know how to respond other than to say that I think we have to disagree. Your logic above is reasonably sound if you were trying to pick the entire board. I just don't think that it necessarily applies if you're selecting only certain games based upon a set of circumstances and yes Sh!t Happens which is why you will have losers.
So, let me restate my goal so as to avoid the possibility/impossibilty debate. I will strive for 75% but settle for 60%.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 11th, 2012 at 1:31:48 PM
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Watch,
LOL...it's okay. I'll publish when I have them. I'm sticking around and willing to take the abuse if wrong.
I wish you luck. Go get'em.
LOL...it's okay. I'll publish when I have them. I'm sticking around and willing to take the abuse if wrong.
I wish you luck. Go get'em.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 11th, 2012 at 1:42:37 PM
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But you do have the time. Everyone does.Quote: steeldco7craps,
Although I probably could go back to last season, it would probably take me one helluva a long time to go thru the entire season. I just don't have that amount of time available.
And the results would be well worth the time.
I did some MLB stats a few years ago from past seasons knowing that it could take forever to tally each decade results.
It took a long time, a little bit here, a little bit there, just like eating an elephant, one bite at a time.
Not only did I complete my assignment, later than I thought, I had 2 other variations done at the same time.
You can do it.
Do not underestimate the value of just a little time. It compounds nicely.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
March 11th, 2012 at 1:49:58 PM
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7craps,
I would pretty much agree with everything that you had written except for the first where you stated "But you do have the time".
I really don't. I manage 2 companies and as a cancer survivor I'm still fighting some of the after effects.
This is more like a hobby to me right now. It's going to need to stay that way.
I would pretty much agree with everything that you had written except for the first where you stated "But you do have the time".
I really don't. I manage 2 companies and as a cancer survivor I'm still fighting some of the after effects.
This is more like a hobby to me right now. It's going to need to stay that way.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 11th, 2012 at 1:56:34 PM
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OK Mush... I mean Steeldco. Let me show you how it is done. I'll take one play on the day and be at 100% with my picks moving forward. My play is a 2 team, 4 pt teaser with Orlando -1 1/2 and Memphis +10. See you at the winners circle!
btw, if you are happy at only being a 60% winner, you won't be making money. Perhaps you are happy breaking even which is essentially what you would be doing at that rate. In sports, to really make money, you have to go at least 75% but more importantly, you have to hit parlays or reverses.. and they are hard to come by. So, your best bet is the no bet... especially when you start off 0-3! lol Play on playa
btw, if you are happy at only being a 60% winner, you won't be making money. Perhaps you are happy breaking even which is essentially what you would be doing at that rate. In sports, to really make money, you have to go at least 75% but more importantly, you have to hit parlays or reverses.. and they are hard to come by. So, your best bet is the no bet... especially when you start off 0-3! lol Play on playa
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
March 11th, 2012 at 2:13:30 PM
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Watch,
I kinda learned long ago that the only way to win is with straight up plays. No parlays. No reverses. No round robins. No teasers. No crap.
I will gladly take 60% and end up pretty much doing whatever I please economically.
Good luck though.
I kinda learned long ago that the only way to win is with straight up plays. No parlays. No reverses. No round robins. No teasers. No crap.
I will gladly take 60% and end up pretty much doing whatever I please economically.
Good luck though.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 11th, 2012 at 2:18:57 PM
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... lets just see who is at 100% tomorrow. lol peace...
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
March 11th, 2012 at 2:23:09 PM
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Okay, but before you go, what did the teaser cost you and what does it pay?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 11th, 2012 at 2:25:34 PM
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Never mind. I've got it. See ya tomorrow.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 11th, 2012 at 4:48:33 PM
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that doesn't matter... if i bet 1000, i win 1000. but to answer your question 10% juice just like a regular straight up bet. If you go to 4.5 pts or 5 pts, then you pay a bit more.
I knew I wouldn't need the points in the orlando game but I liked the extra secutity and I need points extra points on Memphis. Orland is blowing Indi out of the water right now... they were coming off a 3 day rest and indi played miami in a very close tough game last night. These are the things you need to recognize and look into my son if you want to handicap games and be a winner. I expect No more 0-3 from you .. ya hear!
I knew I wouldn't need the points in the orlando game but I liked the extra secutity and I need points extra points on Memphis. Orland is blowing Indi out of the water right now... they were coming off a 3 day rest and indi played miami in a very close tough game last night. These are the things you need to recognize and look into my son if you want to handicap games and be a winner. I expect No more 0-3 from you .. ya hear!
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
March 11th, 2012 at 5:26:27 PM
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Quote: WatchMeWinthat doesn't matter... if i bet 1000, i win 1000. but to answer your question 10% juice just like a regular straight up bet. If you go to 4.5 pts or 5 pts, then you pay a bit more.
I knew I wouldn't need the points in the orlando game but I liked the extra secutity and I need points extra points on Memphis. Orland is blowing Indi out of the water right now... they were coming off a 3 day rest and indi played miami in a very close tough game last night. These are the things you need to recognize and look into my son if you want to handicap games and be a winner. I expect No more 0-3 from you .. ya hear!
So.. WatchMeWin... are you saying the line makers were unaware of who Indi played yesterday, and how many days off Orlando had? I would like to think that, if truly relevant, the linemakers would factor such things into their line. When the team with more rest wins, they chalk it up to that.... when the team with more rest loses, it was 'rust'...
March 12th, 2012 at 7:20:13 AM
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SooPoo... look at the final score of the Orlando game. I rest my case. I guess you just don't see what I see. I won my posted bet. I didn't even need the points but I sure was confident on the play from start to finish with the added points help.
Record:
Watchme win - 1-0
Steeldco - 0-3
Who would you put your money with?
Record:
Watchme win - 1-0
Steeldco - 0-3
Who would you put your money with?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
March 12th, 2012 at 7:21:50 AM
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Oh, I forgot to mention... 1-0 .. a very easy 1-0 from start to finish. There is value to enjoying your play knowing your a winner the whole game, rather than sweating out entire game to the last shot.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
March 12th, 2012 at 7:37:36 AM
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Quote: WatchMeWinSooPoo... look at the final score of the Orlando game. I rest my case. I guess you just don't see what I see. I won my posted bet. I didn't even need the points but I sure was confident on the play from start to finish with the added points help.
Record:
Watchme win - 1-0
Steeldco - 0-3
Who would you put your money with?
Given the huge sample size, I guess I must go with you. But seriously, what percentage of games that are even money bets do you think you can win? Do you think you can hit 2/3? Give me a percentage and I'll offer you up a challenge.
March 12th, 2012 at 8:00:08 AM
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Congrats! Nice job.
I have 1 pick for today and it is Phoenix -4. So.....I guess your pick is going to be Minnesota :-).
I have 1 pick for today and it is Phoenix -4. So.....I guess your pick is going to be Minnesota :-).
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 12th, 2012 at 8:59:53 AM
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Quote: buzzpaffI happen to like to dabble in sports betting. My holy grail is to be able to achieve a 75% win rate. I believe it is possible.
What superior knowledge do you posees that mere mortals do not What a joke. ROFLMAO !
Somethings are worth repeating LOSER !!!!!
March 12th, 2012 at 9:23:35 AM
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Quote: FinsRuleA 75% win rate is not possible, unless you plan on making about 4 picks in your life. Aim lower.
Unless you're an NBA referee...
Insider influence aside, wouldn't a better measure of effectiveness be % of $$ risked, won, as opposed to percent of picks? If you know Orlando is a lock, but are only 70% sure Chicago is going to cover, would you wager the same amount on both games? I don't that would be wise. A lock is a lock, you should bet the farm (or at least all the cows and chickens).
If measured this way, you might only win 55% of actual picks, but if you walked away with 200% of the money wagered, I'd call you, "winner".
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
March 12th, 2012 at 10:33:29 AM
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Steeldco.. that is pretty funny! You're a good sport. Honestly, I havent bet sports in 10 years because it is just a lose lose situation in the long run. When I lost, bookies wanted their money, when I won, some couldn't pay in full. That was before the internet though. Now you can take your chance on a site and hope they dont get shut down.. unless you live in Vegas where you can bet all day long!
Additionally, these days it is very easy to do your due diligence and research with the internet. I did a quick handicap for you yesterday when I gave my winning pick. I haven't even followed the NBA that closely. I just did a little homework, got caught up with teams, made my decision, and viola... easy winner. I may just have to get back into the game! lol Ill get back to you in a few regarding my next play.
Additionally, these days it is very easy to do your due diligence and research with the internet. I did a quick handicap for you yesterday when I gave my winning pick. I haven't even followed the NBA that closely. I just did a little homework, got caught up with teams, made my decision, and viola... easy winner. I may just have to get back into the game! lol Ill get back to you in a few regarding my next play.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
March 12th, 2012 at 11:14:52 AM
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OK Steeldco, that was pretty funny... but no, Im not going to go against your pick. lol
I am going with Milwaukee -3 over the Nets. History has a funny way of repeating itself and the Bucks beat the Nets at NJ a few weeks ago. I know they played in Toronto last night and may be jet lagged , but I think they are hot and will beat them again. Look for Ilysova to light it up again. Plus I cant stand the TV whore and attention needing biatch , Kris Humphries. He is almost as bad as those Kardasian whores. I blame the retards in Ameirca whoa actually watch the show which allows E to keep it on the air. Who watches that?
As for your Pheonix pick. I actually like it. Again, history finds ways to repeat itself and Pheonix beat Min a few weeks ago at home as well.
Good luck.
I am going with Milwaukee -3 over the Nets. History has a funny way of repeating itself and the Bucks beat the Nets at NJ a few weeks ago. I know they played in Toronto last night and may be jet lagged , but I think they are hot and will beat them again. Look for Ilysova to light it up again. Plus I cant stand the TV whore and attention needing biatch , Kris Humphries. He is almost as bad as those Kardasian whores. I blame the retards in Ameirca whoa actually watch the show which allows E to keep it on the air. Who watches that?
As for your Pheonix pick. I actually like it. Again, history finds ways to repeat itself and Pheonix beat Min a few weeks ago at home as well.
Good luck.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
March 12th, 2012 at 11:27:03 AM
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Thanks. My story isn't too different. My last bet was just over 5 years ago before I took ill. In Vegas. My wife and I used to go out there 3-4 times per year for many years. Now traveling for me is difficult but I hope to be heading back out there again in the near future.
Thank God for computers. They have helped keep my sanity while keeping me busy. And.......damn it. I will find that 75% win rate!
Thank God for computers. They have helped keep my sanity while keeping me busy. And.......damn it. I will find that 75% win rate!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 12th, 2012 at 11:33:48 AM
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Milwaukee? Can't quarrel with it. I think they have covered 5 of their last 6 and Jersey has done the opposite.
Good luck on the pick. I think I'll check the Phoenix score in the morning. The o-fer on Saturday caused me a sleepless night even though I had nothing on the games.
Good luck on the pick. I think I'll check the Phoenix score in the morning. The o-fer on Saturday caused me a sleepless night even though I had nothing on the games.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 12th, 2012 at 11:36:34 AM
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That is nice. Good LuckQuote: steeldcoThank God for computers. They have helped keep my sanity while keeping me busy.
Your 75% win rate is possible for maybe 3 to 10 picks.Quote: steeldcoAnd.......damn it. I will find that 75% win rate!
For 100 picks. No way, because the math says so and because God does not care about sports betting.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
March 12th, 2012 at 11:42:17 AM
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In the short term anything is possible. But long term anything higher than 56-60% is practically impossible. Any system you have to track past performance is being used times ten at the Sportsbooks around Vegas and the internet.
March 12th, 2012 at 12:03:52 PM
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The sportsbooks don't care about my picks. They just want to draw even money to both sides. It is what has drawn me to this endeavor. The line doesn't necessarily equate to the difference between each team's abilities.
Just my opinion though.
Just my opinion though.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 12th, 2012 at 12:05:34 PM
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"because God does not care about sports betting."
Apparently you don't know Tebow....... :-)
Apparently you don't know Tebow....... :-)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 13th, 2012 at 4:43:00 AM
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Well, I'm now 0-4. It is amazing how quickly things can turn. Gone from feeling fantastic to feeling absolutely terrible in a few days. Now it's a matter of seeing how many in a row I can lose........
Watch, nice pick again. I have none for today. Do you have one? You're now 2-0. Can you keep it up?
It's interesting that the number of picks yielded have dried up (none today) and they have all been losers.
See ya all tomorrow.....and yes. Go ahead. Let me have it. Apparently I'm full of crap......
Watch, nice pick again. I have none for today. Do you have one? You're now 2-0. Can you keep it up?
It's interesting that the number of picks yielded have dried up (none today) and they have all been losers.
See ya all tomorrow.....and yes. Go ahead. Let me have it. Apparently I'm full of crap......
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 13th, 2012 at 5:55:30 AM
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Yes, I am 2-0 and you are 0-4. Its going to be very hard to get to that 75% winning ratio you talked about so adamantly! lol I wont go hard on you. I dont think you are full of shit. I just think you are delusional and possible on a bad run. If you say you were on a tear before, I guess I would have to take you at your word for it... but I wont since this is a gambling site and talk is cheap. hahah
Although I am a very good hadicapper in sports, I like to make my money on the poker and craps tables and consistantly so.
Ill take a quick look at the spreads today and see if I like anything. I wont force anything if I dont like anything. That is were gamblers can go wrong.
Although I am a very good hadicapper in sports, I like to make my money on the poker and craps tables and consistantly so.
Ill take a quick look at the spreads today and see if I like anything. I wont force anything if I dont like anything. That is were gamblers can go wrong.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
March 13th, 2012 at 10:51:57 AM
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Quote: steeldcoIt's interesting that the number of picks yielded have dried up (none today) and they have all been losers.
See ya all tomorrow.....and yes. Go ahead. Let me have it. Apparently I'm full of crap......
Not really.
Your statistical formulas may be letting you down.
You may not be considering all the variables or you may just be assigning different weights to each variable and a few a too far off.
Sports betting is different from playing Craps.
The exact probabilities are known for Craps.
Not for Sports betting.
Statistics can point in many different directions according to how you arrived at them.
Its been fun
Back to South Park
Good Luck guys!
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
