Shackleford
February 5th, 2011 at 9:45:53 PM
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In horse racing, some people like making "hunch plays". Maybe the horse was born on their birthday, maybe it's the name of their wife or daughter.
Well, the Kentucky Derby is coming up in 3 months, and I think this site has found their hunch play.
Shackleford, is currently 100-1 on Bodog to win the Kentucky Derby. He's racing on February 26, a race that if he wins, his odds will drop considerably.
I say we nominate Shackleford as the official Kentucky Derby contender of the Wizard of Vegas website.
We each put $10 on Shackleford, and when he wins the Derby, we all get $1010.
The odds are currently down because of this weekend's racing. They should be back up Tuesday.
Here is a link to the NTRA story about Shackleford: http://www.ntra.com/content/display/news/NDczNTk=
Well, the Kentucky Derby is coming up in 3 months, and I think this site has found their hunch play.
Shackleford, is currently 100-1 on Bodog to win the Kentucky Derby. He's racing on February 26, a race that if he wins, his odds will drop considerably.
I say we nominate Shackleford as the official Kentucky Derby contender of the Wizard of Vegas website.
We each put $10 on Shackleford, and when he wins the Derby, we all get $1010.
The odds are currently down because of this weekend's racing. They should be back up Tuesday.
Here is a link to the NTRA story about Shackleford: http://www.ntra.com/content/display/news/NDczNTk=
February 6th, 2011 at 3:20:35 AM
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He's a proven winner it seems. Well, maybe I'll wander over to Delaware before the derby.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
February 6th, 2011 at 8:33:26 AM
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Thanks for the idea. Looks fun.
February 6th, 2011 at 8:38:37 AM
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I would do that if I had a safe way. I'll try to check next time in Vegas.
February 23rd, 2011 at 12:54:59 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleIn horse racing, some people like making "hunch plays". Maybe the horse was born on their birthday, maybe it's the name of their wife or daughter.
Well, the Kentucky Derby is coming up in 3 months, and I think this site has found their hunch play.
Shackleford, is currently 100-1 on Bodog to win the Kentucky Derby. He's racing on February 26, a race that if he wins, his odds will drop considerably.
I say we nominate Shackleford as the official Kentucky Derby contender of the Wizard of Vegas website.
We each put $10 on Shackleford, and when he wins the Derby, we all get $1010.
The odds are currently down because of this weekend's racing. They should be back up Tuesday.
Here is a link to the NTRA story about Shackleford: http://www.ntra.com/content/display/news/NDczNTk=
Shackleford update: He is racing Saturday in the 10th race on Saturday at Gulfstream. He is #8. If he wins this race, he will likely have enough earnings to run in the Kentucky Derby. I'll put a small amount of money on him Saturday.
I'll let everyone know what happens Saturday night.
The odds on Shackleford winning the Derby have dropped from 100-1 to 60-1 on Bodog. I'm not sure why they dropped, but this makes him a terrible bet. Bodog used to have pretty good horse future prices, but I cannot recommend them at this time.
February 23rd, 2011 at 1:09:33 PM
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Well, if other books are offering better odds... go for it. Loyalty to Bodog is fine and dandy, but so is chocolate. Just as "candy is dandy, but liquor is quicker" when it comes to female, good odds from a well respected and deserving bookie is fine, but great odds from an obnoxious bookie are better.Quote: FinsRuleThe odds on Shackleford winning the Derby have dropped from 100-1 to 60-1 on Bodog. I'm not sure why they dropped, but this makes him a terrible bet. Bodog used to have pretty good horse future prices, but I cannot recommend them at this time.
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:44:40 PM
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What percentage is Bodogs market framed to? Ante-post markets are notoriously bad for betting into. If the market is over about 150% (it almost certainly will be) I wouldn't bother. Even a market set that high is very poor betting but still about as good as you can expect ante-post.
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:16:53 PM
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Don't believe the Wizard posts any longer.
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:22:24 PM
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Quote: JIMMYFOCKERDon't believe the Wizard posts any longer.
I post. My policy is to only say something when I have something to say. I read this thread after it first appeared, but couldn't think of anything worthwhile to add.
However, as long as I'm here, I doubt the horse was named after me. There are thousands of Shacklefords in the country, although most of them spell it incorrectly with an EL, not LE (I'm sure they would say the same of me).
Futures in general are a sucker bet. The odds on longshots can also vary significantly from place to place. The one with the lowest odds doesn't mean it is the worst book.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
March 1st, 2011 at 6:54:44 AM
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Shackleford update:
DON'T BET ON SHACKLEFORD!
He ran Saturday at Gulfstream in a Derby prep race and finished a distant 5th out of 8 runners. I don't think he is a serious Derby contender, and his future will probably be at higher level allowance or low level stakes races.
If he does anything of note, I'll let everyone know.
DON'T BET ON SHACKLEFORD!
He ran Saturday at Gulfstream in a Derby prep race and finished a distant 5th out of 8 runners. I don't think he is a serious Derby contender, and his future will probably be at higher level allowance or low level stakes races.
If he does anything of note, I'll let everyone know.
March 1st, 2011 at 2:15:27 PM
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killed
March 1st, 2011 at 2:30:25 PM
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Before this thread lapses, more details on the horse are as follows
Trainer: Dale L. Romans
Jockey: Jesus Lopez Castanon
Owner: Lauffer, Michael and Cubbedge, W.D.
Breeder: Mike Lauffer & Bill Cubbedge
Career Racing Summary:
Starts Firsts Seconds Thirds Earnings
4 2 0 0 $ 71,666
Auction History
Prices in parentheses indicate a horse did not sell because it did not meet its reserve price.
Year Sale
2009 Keeneland Association September 2009 Yearling Sale ($275,000)
Trainer: Dale L. Romans
Jockey: Jesus Lopez Castanon
Owner: Lauffer, Michael and Cubbedge, W.D.
Breeder: Mike Lauffer & Bill Cubbedge
Career Racing Summary:
Starts Firsts Seconds Thirds Earnings
4 2 0 0 $ 71,666
Auction History
Prices in parentheses indicate a horse did not sell because it did not meet its reserve price.
Year Sale
2009 Keeneland Association September 2009 Yearling Sale ($275,000)
March 1st, 2011 at 3:09:18 PM
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I seem to recall a horse ( of course sponsored by Studebaker ) that would also never speak unless he had something to say. Coincidence? I think NOT!! :)Quote: WizardI post. My policy is to only say something when I have something to say.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
March 5th, 2011 at 5:01:50 PM
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A computer analysis has him currently rated 43rd.
March 8th, 2011 at 9:37:27 PM
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I think the ranking sounds about right. Bodog's odds on him winning the Derby have dropped to 50-1, which is almost criminal to have his odds that low.
I would say the chances of him actually racing in the Derby are 20-1. If he somehow overcomes those odds, he won't be better than 20-1 in the Derby. So fair odds on him winning the Derby is probably somewhere around 400-1.
Once again, Bodog should be ashamed of their odds on this future bet.
I would say the chances of him actually racing in the Derby are 20-1. If he somehow overcomes those odds, he won't be better than 20-1 in the Derby. So fair odds on him winning the Derby is probably somewhere around 400-1.
Once again, Bodog should be ashamed of their odds on this future bet.
March 8th, 2011 at 10:05:48 PM
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Going on his last run, he couldn't win the Derby if he started now. He just went backwards from the home turn.
The winner (Soldat), however, was very impressive and must be a good chance.
The winner (Soldat), however, was very impressive and must be a good chance.
March 8th, 2011 at 10:35:29 PM
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I put $2 on Soldat to win the Derby in the last future pool at 18-1. I wish I would have put $20. I'm guessing he'll be around 10-1 or 12-1 in this weekend's pool.
All eyes will be focused on Uncle Mo on Saturday, it should be exciting.
All eyes will be focused on Uncle Mo on Saturday, it should be exciting.
March 31st, 2011 at 11:42:13 AM
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Shackleford is at it again.
He's racing Sunday in the $1,000,000 Florida Derby.
He needs to either win or come in 2nd to have a chance at making the Kentucky Derby, and this is his last chance.
This is a very deep field, so I predict him finishing no higher than 4th.
He's racing Sunday in the $1,000,000 Florida Derby.
He needs to either win or come in 2nd to have a chance at making the Kentucky Derby, and this is his last chance.
This is a very deep field, so I predict him finishing no higher than 4th.
March 31st, 2011 at 1:32:59 PM
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I think I'll stick with Soldat.
March 31st, 2011 at 1:42:44 PM
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Yeah, I took Soldat in the first Derby pool at 18-1. I thought I was going to get better odds on him, so I was disappointed. Now I wish I would have put a lot more on him...
March 31st, 2011 at 3:58:54 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleYeah, I took Soldat in the first Derby pool at 18-1. I thought I was going to get better odds on him, so I was disappointed. Now I wish I would have put a lot more on him...
I think you can still get 20-1.
Uncle Mo must be some horse to be quoted at 9-2.
March 31st, 2011 at 5:04:54 PM
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watch him finish well behind the factor.
March 31st, 2011 at 8:05:14 PM
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The Factor scares me the most out of anyone. I have $0 on him.
If you can get Soldat for anything better than 10-1, it's a steal.
If you can get Uncle Mo at anything better than 3-1, it's a steal too.
If you can get Soldat for anything better than 10-1, it's a steal.
If you can get Uncle Mo at anything better than 3-1, it's a steal too.
April 3rd, 2011 at 2:51:50 PM
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Whoa..he just got nailed at the wire and was 60-1!
April 3rd, 2011 at 3:12:44 PM
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He was a nose away from being in the Derby. A real tough loss. He gets 200K for his effort however. A replay of the race should be available real soon at ntra.com. It's a pretty good watch.
Maybe he is a horse to bet on in low to medium level stakes races. I'll keep everyone updated.
Maybe he is a horse to bet on in low to medium level stakes races. I'll keep everyone updated.
April 3rd, 2011 at 3:20:57 PM
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A big form reversal, he went backwards at his previous start in a $400K race and this race was worth $1M.
His sister won a Group 1 race, so there may be better things in store.
His sister won a Group 1 race, so there may be better things in store.
April 3rd, 2011 at 5:52:14 PM
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More details from Bloodhorse.com.
Shackleford, ridden by Jesus Castanon, and To Honor and Serve, with Garrett Gomez aboard, battled through a brisk opening quarter-mile in :23.30 as Shackleford gained a half-length advantage. He tripped the half-mile in :46.35 and six furlongs in 1:10.63 with To Honor and Serve remaining in close attendance.
Shackleford, trained by Dale Romans, also becomes a factor in the Kentucky Derby chase after collecting $200,000 for the runner-up effort. The Forestry colt, beaten by 23 1/2 lengths in the Fountain of Youth, paid $36.80 and $15.20 and completed a $339.60.
“That’s a real tough beat," Romans said of the runner-up. "He ran super. I’m very proud of him. If $200,000 is enough to get into the Derby, I think we’ll have to go. He’s a horse that keeps improving.”
Soldat, the 3-2 favorite following his impressive front-running two-length win in the Fountain of Youth, failed to rally from mid-pack on the final turn and struggled home fifth.
Shackleford, ridden by Jesus Castanon, and To Honor and Serve, with Garrett Gomez aboard, battled through a brisk opening quarter-mile in :23.30 as Shackleford gained a half-length advantage. He tripped the half-mile in :46.35 and six furlongs in 1:10.63 with To Honor and Serve remaining in close attendance.
Shackleford, trained by Dale Romans, also becomes a factor in the Kentucky Derby chase after collecting $200,000 for the runner-up effort. The Forestry colt, beaten by 23 1/2 lengths in the Fountain of Youth, paid $36.80 and $15.20 and completed a $339.60.
“That’s a real tough beat," Romans said of the runner-up. "He ran super. I’m very proud of him. If $200,000 is enough to get into the Derby, I think we’ll have to go. He’s a horse that keeps improving.”
Soldat, the 3-2 favorite following his impressive front-running two-length win in the Fountain of Youth, failed to rally from mid-pack on the final turn and struggled home fifth.
April 3rd, 2011 at 9:19:51 PM
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shackelford ran a huge race today.
April 3rd, 2011 at 9:32:32 PM
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Shackleford now has 212K in Graded Earnings, which puts him 20th on the Graded Stakes earning list of horses in Derby contention. Considering 20 horses are in the Derby, he will need a bunch of horses to opt out of the Derby to have a chance at running.
I don't see it happening.
I don't see it happening.
April 21st, 2011 at 7:59:53 PM
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Shackleford Update: Shackleford is currently 22nd in Graded Earnings for the Kentucky Derby.
The top 20 get to choose if they want to be in the Derby. This means that if two horses opt out who have sufficient graded earnings, then Shackleford will be racing in the Kentucky Derby. However, the horse ranked #24 in Graded Earnings is racing this weekend. If he finishes 1st or 2nd, he will pass Shackleford and Shackleford will need 3 horses to drop out for him to be eligible.
Currently, Shackleford is 35-1 on Bodog. Not a good bet. If he does make it to the Derby, his odds will probably be between 20-30 to 1. However, if anyone did get Shackleford at 100-1, that looks to be a pretty good bet.
I'll update the next time I hear something.
The top 20 get to choose if they want to be in the Derby. This means that if two horses opt out who have sufficient graded earnings, then Shackleford will be racing in the Kentucky Derby. However, the horse ranked #24 in Graded Earnings is racing this weekend. If he finishes 1st or 2nd, he will pass Shackleford and Shackleford will need 3 horses to drop out for him to be eligible.
Currently, Shackleford is 35-1 on Bodog. Not a good bet. If he does make it to the Derby, his odds will probably be between 20-30 to 1. However, if anyone did get Shackleford at 100-1, that looks to be a pretty good bet.
I'll update the next time I hear something.
April 27th, 2011 at 4:38:29 AM
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Great news! Shackleford is in the Kentucky Derby on May 7 barring injury. That 100-1 on him winning the Kentucky Derby was a great bet, as he'll probably go off at around 30-1 on Derby Day.
I might throw a couple on him to win, he barely got beat by the Derby favorite in his last race.
I might throw a couple on him to win, he barely got beat by the Derby favorite in his last race.
April 27th, 2011 at 4:56:51 AM
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Quote: FinsRuleGreat news! Shackleford is in the Kentucky Derby on May 7 barring injury. That 100-1 on him winning the Kentucky Derby was a great bet, as he'll probably go off at around 30-1 on Derby Day.
I might throw a couple on him to win, he barely got beat by the Derby favorite in his last race.
LOL that is great! I'll put a few bucks on him for the fun of it!
EvenBob: "Look America, I have a tiny wee-wee, can anybody
help me?"
April 27th, 2011 at 7:41:29 AM
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This is a super funny thread! Bet on him, he's good luck, no wait, now DON'T BET ON HIM! LMAO!
OFFICIALLY and justifiably reclaimed my title as SuperHotBlonde!
April 27th, 2011 at 5:36:31 PM
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Yes, it seems crazy. Here is the official timeline:
- Shackleford opens at 100-1 on Bodog. Hasn't really raced, but it's kinda fun to bet on a horse at 100-1 for a few bucks and you can see what happens.
- Shackleford drops to 50-1 without having raced. Not really a good bet anymore.
- Shackleford races twice, accomplishes nothing except looking terrible. Definitely no reason to bet him.
- Shackleford finishes second to the probable Derby favorite, loses by a head. Looks great, but price has dropped to 35-1, and he still might not have enough money for the Derby.
- Due to defections and injuries, Shackleford is in the Derby.
- Price on Shackleford is now 20-1.
So here's the scoop. 20-1 is a terrible price on him in a futures bet. He will undoubtedly have a higher price on Derby Day, so just wait until then. The reason that he can win now, and he was a bad bet previously is that no horse has proven consistent except for Dialed In. This race is really really wide open. There really isn't a horse who can't win, and that's not something you can usually say. And, the favorite, Dialed In, is a deep closer, which means he is going to have to pass 18 horses on the stretch to win. In such a crowded race, a lot can happen to prevent that from being possible.
It should be a great race, so why not pick a horse to root for?
- Shackleford opens at 100-1 on Bodog. Hasn't really raced, but it's kinda fun to bet on a horse at 100-1 for a few bucks and you can see what happens.
- Shackleford drops to 50-1 without having raced. Not really a good bet anymore.
- Shackleford races twice, accomplishes nothing except looking terrible. Definitely no reason to bet him.
- Shackleford finishes second to the probable Derby favorite, loses by a head. Looks great, but price has dropped to 35-1, and he still might not have enough money for the Derby.
- Due to defections and injuries, Shackleford is in the Derby.
- Price on Shackleford is now 20-1.
So here's the scoop. 20-1 is a terrible price on him in a futures bet. He will undoubtedly have a higher price on Derby Day, so just wait until then. The reason that he can win now, and he was a bad bet previously is that no horse has proven consistent except for Dialed In. This race is really really wide open. There really isn't a horse who can't win, and that's not something you can usually say. And, the favorite, Dialed In, is a deep closer, which means he is going to have to pass 18 horses on the stretch to win. In such a crowded race, a lot can happen to prevent that from being possible.
It should be a great race, so why not pick a horse to root for?
April 27th, 2011 at 6:26:30 PM
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Speaking of which, where is a good place to watch the Derby? Has anybody seen it in a Las Vegas sportsbook? What's the atmosphere like? Has anybody been to Louisville/Churchill for Derby Day?
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
April 27th, 2011 at 6:35:48 PM
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I've been in Vegas for the last 2 Derby days.
The Sportsbooks are pretty busy because not only is the Derby going on, but there is also NBA and NHL playoffs, and the regular baseball games. In addition, this year is the Pacquiao vs. Mosley fight in Vegas. This is the 3rd straight year that Pacquiao or Mosley has fought Derby night.
So, the Sportsbook will be busy (But in a good way) that day. If you get in any decent sized Sportsbook an hour before the race, you'll have a spot. In the last 10 minutes before the race, the sportsbook gets real crowded, and the atmosphere is a lot of fun. I'm going to miss not being in Vegas this year...
As for Churchill, I was there during Breeders' Cup last year. All I can gather is that the entire town just shuts down and focuses on the Derby the whole day. Churchill is not really the best place to watch the race unless you have tons of money for a ticket. I scalp my Derby tickets every year because I'd rather take the $200 profit, then spend $600 to watch one big race.
So if I had the choice, I'd take Vegas on May 7 over Louisville. Then 6 months later, head over to Louisville for the Breeders' Cup.
The Sportsbooks are pretty busy because not only is the Derby going on, but there is also NBA and NHL playoffs, and the regular baseball games. In addition, this year is the Pacquiao vs. Mosley fight in Vegas. This is the 3rd straight year that Pacquiao or Mosley has fought Derby night.
So, the Sportsbook will be busy (But in a good way) that day. If you get in any decent sized Sportsbook an hour before the race, you'll have a spot. In the last 10 minutes before the race, the sportsbook gets real crowded, and the atmosphere is a lot of fun. I'm going to miss not being in Vegas this year...
As for Churchill, I was there during Breeders' Cup last year. All I can gather is that the entire town just shuts down and focuses on the Derby the whole day. Churchill is not really the best place to watch the race unless you have tons of money for a ticket. I scalp my Derby tickets every year because I'd rather take the $200 profit, then spend $600 to watch one big race.
So if I had the choice, I'd take Vegas on May 7 over Louisville. Then 6 months later, head over to Louisville for the Breeders' Cup.
April 27th, 2011 at 6:49:36 PM
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Latest on Shackleford from Courier-Journal.com.
Romans thrilled Shackleford is definitely in Derby field
Posted on April 26, 2011 by Jennie Rees
Dale Romans didn’t know if Shackleford was No. 20 or No. 19 on the earnings list to make the May 7 Kentucky Derby – a distinction that hinges on whether JP’s Gusto really is out of consideration after shipping to New York. But the Louisville trainer is just glad to be “i-n.”
Shackleford, who lost the Florida Derby by a head, had a monster work Saturday at Churchill Downs, gliding five-eighths of a mile in 1:00 1/5 in the slop.
The other benefit for Romans with The Factor out is that it takes a classy speed horse out of the mix, which can only help Shackleford, who led all but about the final stride of the Florida Derby before finishing second to Dialed In.
“With him being gone, it sure changes the pace scenario,” Romans said. “We definitely did want to get in. He worked so well. He ran big in the Florida Derby. But the work, to me, summed it up as being a true contender.
“We thought we’d get in, but it’s nice to have that one concern out of the way. We can start all the major preparation now for everything other than the horse.”
Shackleford will be the first Kentucky Derby mount for veteran jockey Jesus Castanon.
Shackleford is co-owned by Michael Lauffer of Paintsville, Ky. Lauffer was a partner in Rachel Alexandra when she won the 2009 Kentucky Oaks by 20-1/2 lengths.
Romans thrilled Shackleford is definitely in Derby field
Posted on April 26, 2011 by Jennie Rees
Dale Romans didn’t know if Shackleford was No. 20 or No. 19 on the earnings list to make the May 7 Kentucky Derby – a distinction that hinges on whether JP’s Gusto really is out of consideration after shipping to New York. But the Louisville trainer is just glad to be “i-n.”
Shackleford, who lost the Florida Derby by a head, had a monster work Saturday at Churchill Downs, gliding five-eighths of a mile in 1:00 1/5 in the slop.
The other benefit for Romans with The Factor out is that it takes a classy speed horse out of the mix, which can only help Shackleford, who led all but about the final stride of the Florida Derby before finishing second to Dialed In.
“With him being gone, it sure changes the pace scenario,” Romans said. “We definitely did want to get in. He worked so well. He ran big in the Florida Derby. But the work, to me, summed it up as being a true contender.
“We thought we’d get in, but it’s nice to have that one concern out of the way. We can start all the major preparation now for everything other than the horse.”
Shackleford will be the first Kentucky Derby mount for veteran jockey Jesus Castanon.
Shackleford is co-owned by Michael Lauffer of Paintsville, Ky. Lauffer was a partner in Rachel Alexandra when she won the 2009 Kentucky Oaks by 20-1/2 lengths.
May 5th, 2011 at 6:18:33 PM
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Shackleford fires bullet under Tammy Fox
Latest on Shackleford's preparation for the Derby from Bloodhorse.com.
Shackleford Impresses in Kentucky Derby Work
By Ron Mitchell
Shackleford, the Florida Derby (gr. I) runner-up, impressed observers at Churchill Downs the morning of April 30 when the son of Forestry sizzled five furlongs in a bullet :58 4/5 in his final preparations for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I).
With Tammy Fox, wife of trainer Dale Romans, aboard for the breeze, Shackleford turned in the best time of the day among 36 horses working that distance on a welcome warm, sunny Saturday morning at the Downs. The pleasant weather was in stark departure to the heavy rains for much of the week that led to flooding in some areas of Louisville, Ky.
Shackleford, a homebred for Mike Lauffer and Bill Cubbedge, was timed in fractions of :11 3/5, :23 and :34 2/5. As impressive as he worked, the colt also looked just as good afterward, galloping out six furlongs in 1:12 2/5. Even then, Fox had a hard time pulling up Shackleford, who looked like he wanted to do more.
“He looked really good,” said Romans, who watched the work from a clocker’s stand on the backside. “He wanted to keep on going. I was really impressed with his gallop out. He just loves this track and he loved it here last year as 2-year-old.
“He’s as good as I can get him. It is just a question of whether he is good enough.”
A handsome chestnut colt, Shackleford has won two of five starts with earnings of $271,666. Produced from the Unbridled mare Oatsee, whose offspring include grade I winner Lady Joanne, Shackleford joined Lauffer and Cubbedge’s small stable after he failed to achieve his $275,000 reserve at the Keeneland September yearling sale.
After breaking his maiden and winning an allowance in his second and third starts, respectively, Shackleford ran fifth in the Fountain of Youth (gr. II) before leading throughout only to be caught late by Dialed In for a runner-up effort at 68-1 odds in the Florida Derby.
May 6th, 2011 at 9:40:20 AM
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I actually listened to a DC area sports show today that mentioned this horse as a good pick, on the basis of what he will pay vis a vis the favorite, which will pay terrible
So I think you might have to go by the morning line.
PS: the consensus forming is that it is a crummy field at the Derby this year and that might help S. pull it off
So I think you might have to go by the morning line.
PS: the consensus forming is that it is a crummy field at the Derby this year and that might help S. pull it off
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 6th, 2011 at 9:44:23 AM
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I'm definitely stopping by Canterbury Downs tomorrow to place my bet on Shackleford. Can't pass this up!
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
May 6th, 2011 at 3:39:27 PM
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Andy Beyer (creator of the Beyer speed index you see in the racing form) today on KJR-AM in Seattle...
said he thinks Shackleford at 20 to 1 (this morning) might be worth a few pesos...
Andy says he wouldn't touch Derby fave Dialed In.
(cut/paste from Mitch in the Morning fbook page)
said he thinks Shackleford at 20 to 1 (this morning) might be worth a few pesos...
Andy says he wouldn't touch Derby fave Dialed In.
(cut/paste from Mitch in the Morning fbook page)
May 6th, 2011 at 6:08:53 PM
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With my $1 oaks/derby double, I'm $177 richer if Shackleford wins. Not the $1010 that I passed up on, but enough to root for him tomorrow.
May 6th, 2011 at 6:22:16 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleWith my $1 oaks/derby double, I'm $177 richer if Shackleford wins. Not the $1010 that I passed up on, but enough to root for him tomorrow.
What about Soldat?
May 6th, 2011 at 7:09:34 PM
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None of the Derby entrants (except for Uncle Mo) has yet run a race good enough to stamp himself clearly as a potential Derby winner. Their speed figures are all sub-par. Under these circumstances, it makes sense to look for a colt whose form is on the upgrade and is likely to improve further on Saturday. Based on this standard, these are my top three:
1. Shackleford
2. Archarcharch
3. Nehro
While Dialed In received acclaim for his come-from-behind Florida Derby victory, Shackleford gave a superior performance in defeat. He outsprinted several formidable speedsters, set a fast pace and refused to yield when Dialed In hooked him. This race represented an improvement over his four previous starts, and he may still be improving - as indicated by his fast five-furlong workout in 58.83 seconds at Churchill Downs. Is he a 1 1/4-mile horse? Maybe not. But at healthy odds I’ll take the chance that his sharp form will trump any of his shortcomings.
Archarcharch and Nehro finished 1-2 in the competitive 13-horse Arkansas Derby, with Archarcharch rallying past the tired leaders to take command and Nehro unleashing a powerful late run to miss by a neck. Both have raced four times at a mile or more since mid-January; they’re fit. Both have solid pedigrees for 1 ¼ miles. Both are improving; they delivered the best races of their lives in the Arkansas Derby. Archarcharch is training especially well; after he worked five furlongs in 59.31 seconds last week, clocker Bruno De Julio wrote at GradeOneRacing.com: “He is a serious racehorse hitting his stride.” If a hot early pace in the Derby takes a toll on the leaders - a common scenario at Churchill Downs - Archarcharch and Nehro are the stretch-runners most likely to capitalize.
Because a handicapper has to bet horses on the basis of hoped-for improvement rather than actual accomplishments, this is an especially challenging Kentucky Derby. But the potential for giant payoffs makes the race irresistible. My plan is to box my Shackleford, Archarcharch, and Nehro in the exacta, and then to use them on top in trifecta and superfecta combinations that will not include Dialed In - and would not have included Uncle Mo if he had stayed in the race.
(c) 2011, The Washington Post
1. Shackleford
2. Archarcharch
3. Nehro
While Dialed In received acclaim for his come-from-behind Florida Derby victory, Shackleford gave a superior performance in defeat. He outsprinted several formidable speedsters, set a fast pace and refused to yield when Dialed In hooked him. This race represented an improvement over his four previous starts, and he may still be improving - as indicated by his fast five-furlong workout in 58.83 seconds at Churchill Downs. Is he a 1 1/4-mile horse? Maybe not. But at healthy odds I’ll take the chance that his sharp form will trump any of his shortcomings.
Archarcharch and Nehro finished 1-2 in the competitive 13-horse Arkansas Derby, with Archarcharch rallying past the tired leaders to take command and Nehro unleashing a powerful late run to miss by a neck. Both have raced four times at a mile or more since mid-January; they’re fit. Both have solid pedigrees for 1 ¼ miles. Both are improving; they delivered the best races of their lives in the Arkansas Derby. Archarcharch is training especially well; after he worked five furlongs in 59.31 seconds last week, clocker Bruno De Julio wrote at GradeOneRacing.com: “He is a serious racehorse hitting his stride.” If a hot early pace in the Derby takes a toll on the leaders - a common scenario at Churchill Downs - Archarcharch and Nehro are the stretch-runners most likely to capitalize.
Because a handicapper has to bet horses on the basis of hoped-for improvement rather than actual accomplishments, this is an especially challenging Kentucky Derby. But the potential for giant payoffs makes the race irresistible. My plan is to box my Shackleford, Archarcharch, and Nehro in the exacta, and then to use them on top in trifecta and superfecta combinations that will not include Dialed In - and would not have included Uncle Mo if he had stayed in the race.
(c) 2011, The Washington Post
May 7th, 2011 at 11:53:43 AM
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Calvin Borel:The 44-year-old from Louisiana is riding ' Twice the Appeal'
just saying.
bad news for our boy?
just saying.
bad news for our boy?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 7th, 2011 at 3:35:12 PM
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Go Shackleford! Great race. Strong finish by Animal Kingdom.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
May 7th, 2011 at 3:37:47 PM
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Shackleford led from the get-go until the final furlong. Nice work from the WoV sentimental favorite.
May 7th, 2011 at 4:30:03 PM
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I posted a few picks on Facebook this morning. Most involving Dialed in and ArchArchArch, so they didn't win. I had 4 $2 picks and decided the throw in a $2 show pick on a longer shot to make it an even $10 in wagers. A hunch led me to . . . Animal Kingdom. That $2 bet would have paid $13.00. Sometimes it pays to go with a hunch!
Also - Wouldn't you have liked to hit the Trifecta or Superfecta on this one? Nearly $4k for the Tri & $48k for the Super on $2 bets! Even the Exacta paid $340!
Also - Wouldn't you have liked to hit the Trifecta or Superfecta on this one? Nearly $4k for the Tri & $48k for the Super on $2 bets! Even the Exacta paid $340!
"Bite my Glorious Golden Ass!" - Bender Bending Rodriguez
May 7th, 2011 at 10:56:35 PM
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I put $20 on my namesake to win, plus $10 from my dad. Just before the race I had to meet someone at the Palms. My 9-year-old son was in tow. He seemed excited about the race and wanted to make a bet on Shackleford. To improve his chances of winning, I went up to the window at the Palms at put $3 on Shackleford to show. As I watched the race I thought for sure this would make my son's day. Sheesh. Horrible ending. At least I had the chance to teach my son what a "bad beat" is.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
