Sports betting chatter

Quote:

First and maybe last time I bet on such a disgusting bottom feeder game, but our boys in red come through to get us the dub. As disclaimer, if I do suggest a spread (up to), that's usually a hard stop in terms of where the value drops off for me, so if the spread is outside of that number, I would no recommend tailing (you could buy down, but you do lose a lot of value). Let's roll with some NCAAB today - now I know most of you expected Uconn, which I'm still slamming, but going for an under play on the other game for tomorrow. Sickness in the Uconn game has me worried, will look to live bet that game instead.

POTD Record: 35-11-2 | (1-2 on old model)
Last 25:✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✋✅❌✅✅

Yesterday's POTD: Pistons @ Rockets -4.5 (up to -5) | 3U | NBA ✅

Today's POTD: SDS vs. FAU | Under 132.5 (down to U131.5) | 3U | NCAAB March Madness

Time: April 1, 6:09PM EST

MODEL EXPLANATION:
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.

Pick spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing

POTD Stats: +60.49 Units | ≈70.86% ROI | Average odds -110

PICK REASON:

1. ⁠To start us off, as always, let's look at the stats here. Per Bart Torvik, SDS is ranked #3 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and FAU is ranked #35. Both of these teams are solid on defense. On the other side, FAU is ranked #37 in offense, and SDS is ranked #62. both teams are overall better on defense than they are offense.
2. ⁠Under Kenpom, similar results, SDS is ranked #4 on defense, and FAU ranked #30, and on offense 24 for FAU and 75 FAU. Both teams made it this far with their defense, and I expect this to be no different than a slug fest of passing and shot clock violations
3. ⁠A wild stat, the last 10 games for SDS has gone under, and 5 of the last 7 for FAU has gone under. SDS is just insane defensively, and really limit opportunities. Moreover, the under has hit 9 in the last 9 games where SDS was also the favourite.
4. ⁠SDS has won against 2 of the best offensive teams in the country in Creighton and Alabama, and I expect them to be able to shut down a much weaker offense in FAU when comparable to their last 2 matchups.
5. ⁠Kenpom has SDS ranked #266 and FAU ranked #155 in pace - so I expect this game to be played to full shot clocks, with careful passing to try to find open looks.
6. ⁠SDS has kept 5 of 7 of their last opponents to under 60 points, and I expect this to be a game of attrition as teams try to find any bucket they can.
7. ⁠Overall - I expect this game to be a slugfest, with very few buckets - and can consider the Under 1H spread instead down to 60. This will be a fun one just like watching paint dry is fun. Defensive clinic with SDS winning.

As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it.

Buy me a coffee

| Paypal

Much love,

Riddles,

Discord: https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex

https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex

Quote: lilredrooster

.

just looked at SDSU's last 10 games

they've held opponents to an average of 57.7 p.p.g.

Quote:

**SO WHY DO BOOKMAKERS SOMETIMES MOVE THEIR LINES IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION?**

So now we’re into reading line movements. There are a few different sources for this… scoresandodds.com has a casino grid that’s OK, and pregame.com also has one that’s OK (there are links in the side-bar). Basically it tells you the %age of money wagered on each side, and the current line.

*Is this information accurate?*

Not even close. BUT that doesn’t it's useless… it’s a very decent view of where the public betting money is going. The problem is that it doesn’t include any private money (e.g., a sharp who calls in a large bet instead of placing it online). As long as you know it’s a rough, not-close-to-perfect estimate of public betting only, then it’s absolutely fine to use.

*What does normal line movement look like?*

If the line is getting more expensive on the side where most of the wagers are coming in, that’s normal (e.g., Team A -6 is the line, and 90% of betting is on Team A… line moves to Team A -7).

*What does reverse line movement look like?*

The opposite. 90% of betting is on Team A… but the line moves to Team A -5. This can happen for two reasons:

* There is so much private money coming in, that it more than outweighs the public majority, OR:

* The bookmakers see a game that they feel is reasonably predictable (they know something the public doesn’t know).

The majority of the time, RLM’s are due to sharp/private money, and historically they hit about 57% of the time. Useful to know because it means any RLM has positive expected value.

However, sometimes it is actually the bookies as well. This is almost always a call made by a major sports book, and it is certainly rare… but to say bookies never take a side is incorrect.

The major sports books are the ones with the floats to take a "side"—and when they do it’s usually on a relatively low-volume event (read: never an NFL game)... and usually involves shorting a favorite (e.g., MIA in NBA).

**Regardless of what causes RLM, how can I use it to make money?**

Because we know RLM has positive expected value, it can be a great red-flag if it is moving against you, or a way to add higher confidence value to your existing picks.

Quote: gamerfreak

HSRiddles-

Quote:

First and maybe last time I bet on such a disgusting bottom feeder game, but our boys in red come through to get us the dub. As disclaimer, if I do suggest a spread (up to), that's usually a hard stop in terms of where the value drops off for me, so if the spread is outside of that number, I would no recommend tailing (you could buy down, but you do lose a lot of value). Let's roll with some NCAAB today - now I know most of you expected Uconn, which I'm still slamming, but going for an under play on the other game for tomorrow. Sickness in the Uconn game has me worried, will look to live bet that game instead.

POTD Record: 35-11-2 | (1-2 on old model)
Last 25:✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✋✅❌✅✅

Yesterday's POTD: Pistons @ Rockets -4.5 (up to -5) | 3U | NBA ✅

Today's POTD: SDS vs. FAU | Under 132.5 (down to U131.5) | 3U | NCAAB March Madness

Time: April 1, 6:09PM EST

MODEL EXPLANATION:
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.

Pick spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing

POTD Stats: +60.49 Units | ≈70.86% ROI | Average odds -110

PICK REASON:

1. ⁠To start us off, as always, let's look at the stats here. Per Bart Torvik, SDS is ranked #3 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and FAU is ranked #35. Both of these teams are solid on defense. On the other side, FAU is ranked #37 in offense, and SDS is ranked #62. both teams are overall better on defense than they are offense.
2. ⁠Under Kenpom, similar results, SDS is ranked #4 on defense, and FAU ranked #30, and on offense 24 for FAU and 75 FAU. Both teams made it this far with their defense, and I expect this to be no different than a slug fest of passing and shot clock violations
3. ⁠A wild stat, the last 10 games for SDS has gone under, and 5 of the last 7 for FAU has gone under. SDS is just insane defensively, and really limit opportunities. Moreover, the under has hit 9 in the last 9 games where SDS was also the favourite.
4. ⁠SDS has won against 2 of the best offensive teams in the country in Creighton and Alabama, and I expect them to be able to shut down a much weaker offense in FAU when comparable to their last 2 matchups.
5. ⁠Kenpom has SDS ranked #266 and FAU ranked #155 in pace - so I expect this game to be played to full shot clocks, with careful passing to try to find open looks.
6. ⁠SDS has kept 5 of 7 of their last opponents to under 60 points, and I expect this to be a game of attrition as teams try to find any bucket they can.
7. ⁠Overall - I expect this game to be a slugfest, with very few buckets - and can consider the Under 1H spread instead down to 60. This will be a fun one just like watching paint dry is fun. Defensive clinic with SDS winning.

As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it.

Buy me a coffee

| Paypal

Much love,

Riddles,

Discord: https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex

https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex

link to original post

Quote: SOOPOO

I got one +EV offer from FD. It was a boost in their ‘final four specials’. I used it for UConn to be the highest scoring team in the final 4 semifinal games.
Rounded, the over under for each team is UConn 77, Miami 72, SdSt 66, FAU 64. So I think plus 105 is +EV.
link to original post

Quote: SOOPOO

I got one +EV offer from FD. It was a boost in their ‘final four specials’. I used it for UConn to be the highest scoring team in the final 4 semifinal games.
Rounded, the over under for each team is UConn 77, Miami 72, SdSt 66, FAU 64. So I think plus 105 is +EV.
link to original post