Sports betting chatter
February 27th, 2025 at 6:30:51 AM
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you know the old saw about the home dog being a good bet
I just went over 100 past games on covers.com and came up with the home dogs winning 63-37
edit again - just went over 100 games from the previous year and the home dogs lost 46-54
so I erased my experimental picks - looks like it was just variance - not worth pursuing
.
you know the old saw about the home dog being a good bet
I just went over 100 past games on covers.com and came up with the home dogs winning 63-37
edit again - just went over 100 games from the previous year and the home dogs lost 46-54
so I erased my experimental picks - looks like it was just variance - not worth pursuing
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 27, 2025
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
February 27th, 2025 at 9:52:12 AM
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Quote: lilredrooster.
you know the old saw about the home dog being a good bet
I just went over 100 past games on covers.com and came up with the home dogs winning 63-37
edit again - just went over 100 games from the previous year and the home dogs lost 46-54
so I erased my experimental picks - looks like it was just variance - not worth pursuing
.
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I would guess that if there is some +EV on the home underdogs, it is very small like 1% or 2%. That small of an edge can be attractive if you have a very large bankroll but most people will over bet their bankroll just because they have been told there is an edge, If it was me I probably would not bet more than 1% of my bankroll on a small edge like that.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
February 27th, 2025 at 11:20:57 AM
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Quote: DRichQuote: lilredrooster.
you know the old saw about the home dog being a good bet
I just went over 100 past games on covers.com and came up with the home dogs winning 63-37
edit again - just went over 100 games from the previous year and the home dogs lost 46-54
so I erased my experimental picks - looks like it was just variance - not worth pursuing
.
link to original post
I would guess that if there is some +EV on the home underdogs, it is very small like 1% or 2%. That small of an edge can be attractive if you have a very large bankroll but most people will over bet their bankroll just because they have been told there is an edge, If it was me I probably would not bet more than 1% of my bankroll on a small edge like that.
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And I would bet you are wrong. I seriously doubt with the normal vig that sportsbooks use to make a profit, betting home underdogs would result in a win. I’m not saying you won’t find a season or an era even where it is possible you would be housing that strategy. With normal variance you can probably find a season that you’d make money betting home favorites. Point being, the VIG is hard to beat.
