Sports betting chatter
Quote: SOOPOO. Looked GOOD with a minute to go.Quote: DRichMy alma matter Iowa Hawkeyes play the Missouri Tigers today in the Music City bowl. The line is Missouri -2.5.
I don't like either side so I made a silly bet that the game will go to overtime at 10-1.
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Yes it did. On Iowa's last offensive play they had a 4th and one foot at about midfield. That might have been the worst 4th down play that I have ever seen.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
this ESPN link shows some of the wildest bets from this year so far - mostly crazy parlays
but one bettor bet $ 3.1 million on the Eagles on the moneyline -700 to beat the Panthers at Circa Sports - it went down to the wire but he won it winning $442, 857
https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/43222711/betting-year-review-breaking-biggest-wildest-wagers-2024
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I’m getting ‘year in review’ type communications from the sportsbooks. It just reminds me how little I bet when I compare it to even a $1000 a game better. And some of my ‘action’ is really closer to ‘no action’. Like laying 200-1 on a soccer team ahead by 3 goals in the second half. $10 gets me a nickel. I did lose $2 recently trying to win A PENNY when the Hawks came from 17 down with 5 minutes to go.
For those of you (smart enough) who want to fade me, I have the BlackHawks to upset the Blues in the outdoor game. And under 5.5.
Texas ML starts a lot of my parlays where I need one ‘sure’ winner.
And I got Patriots plus 3, as well as some Patriots Money Line for Sunday. As far as the +3, I think there is added value, as I’d predict EITHER team would go for 2 to win(or lose) the game instead of going for possible OT.
Also just found boosts to use on PSU/BOISE over 53.5. As well as PSU/BOISE under 54.5. So either way win a few $, but if exactly 54 win $$$.
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Right now, I wouldn't bet on the Patriots successfully mixing the right flavor/color Gatorade for the sidelines, they're that bad.
Quote: GenoDRPh
Right now, I wouldn't bet on the Patriots successfully mixing the right flavor/color Gatorade for the sidelines, they're that bad.
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My question would be do the Patriots want to lose the first pick in the draft?
Quote: DRichQuote: GenoDRPh
Right now, I wouldn't bet on the Patriots successfully mixing the right flavor/color Gatorade for the sidelines, they're that bad.
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My question would be do the Patriots want to lose the first pick in the draft?
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The PLAYERS all want to win. The coaches not so sure. Management I’m sure want to lose. We shall see how the game plays out. Hard for me to see Mayo tanking on purpose. Easy for me to see McDermott tanking.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichQuote: GenoDRPh
Right now, I wouldn't bet on the Patriots successfully mixing the right flavor/color Gatorade for the sidelines, they're that bad.
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My question would be do the Patriots want to lose the first pick in the draft?
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The PLAYERS all want to win. The coaches not so sure. Management I’m sure want to lose. We shall see how the game plays out. Hard for me to see Mayo tanking on purpose. Easy for me to see McDermott tanking.
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If they lose, they keep the first pick. If they win they'll most likely be knocked out of the top 5. There is also a healthy respect for competition and fair play and trying to win and all that. Which do they value more, the first pick which they will trade away for a motherlode of picks, or a pick in spot 6-10 they can use to shore up the roster? They already have a franchise QB and a shut-down CB. As for the rest of the roster...
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichQuote: GenoDRPh
Right now, I wouldn't bet on the Patriots successfully mixing the right flavor/color Gatorade for the sidelines, they're that bad.
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My question would be do the Patriots want to lose the first pick in the draft?
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The PLAYERS all want to win. The coaches not so sure. Management I’m sure want to lose. We shall see how the game plays out. Hard for me to see Mayo tanking on purpose. Easy for me to see McDermott tanking.
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If they lose, they keep the first pick. If they win they'll most likely be knocked out of the top 5. There is also a healthy respect for competition and fair play and trying to win and all that. Which do they value more, the first pick which they will trade away for a motherlode of picks, or a pick in spot 6-10 they can use to shore up the roster? They already have a franchise QB and a shut-down CB. As for the rest of the roster...
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If the ONLY goal is to win the Super Bowl, then the Patriots should take a knee on all offensive plays. And instruct the defense to make no tackles.
Frankly, the same can be said about their opponent, the Bills. They should do everything in their power to not get an injury. Nothing else about this game is relevant to them.
I’m not sure what the exact rules for using ‘practice squad’ players is, but if allowed I think the Bills will use all of them.
If the Patriots did not already have a putative ‘franchise QB’ I think the pressure on them to lose would be greater. Still markedly in their best interests to get the #1 pick to trade.
Quote: billryanFor those who may be betting, Georgia will likely be missing a dozen starters or key reserves when it takes the field tonight against Notre Dame, including several projected top draft picks.
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I wish you would have told me this an hour ago….
Same was said about Michigan yesterday, by the way.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: billryanFor those who may be betting, Georgia will likely be missing a dozen starters or key reserves when it takes the field tonight against Notre Dame, including several projected top draft picks.
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I wish you would have told me this an hour ago….
Same was said about Michigan yesterday, by the way.
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I've never seen Bama play as many White linemen, so I assume most of the starters either sat out or transferred.
It looks like the Ohio State vs Texas game is Ohio State favored by 6. I doubt that I will bet that as the game is in Dallas.
Overall he's on the money
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8ouLblnUCw
Donovan Mitchell played a great game despite barely scoring. They ‘blitzed’ him, and he always made the correct pass. He was VERY unlucky to end up with only 4 assists.
My (likely -EV) bets tonight are Mitchell
Over 4.5 assists at -130
Over 5.5 assists at +150
Over 7.5 assists at + 500
They are playing a dismally poor defensive team in the Raptors, so I am at risk for Mitchell not to even play in the 4th quarter.
I had a bonus bet to use so took Cavs at 13-1 to win the championship.
Quote: SOOPOOI watched Cavs/Thunder. Cavs (now!) are a slightly better team than the Thunder. I’d bet on the Thunder all day once they get Holmgren back.
Donovan Mitchell played a great game despite barely scoring. They ‘blitzed’ him, and he always made the correct pass. He was VERY unlucky to end up with only 4 assists.
My (likely -EV) bets tonight are Mitchell
Over 4.5 assists at -130
Over 5.5 assists at +150
Over 7.5 assists at + 500
They are playing a dismally poor defensive team in the Raptors, so I am at risk for Mitchell not to even play in the 4th quarter.
I had a bonus bet to use so took Cavs at 13-1 to win the championship.
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What I find most surprising about the Cavs is that they are 33-4 with a brand new coach hired this season. I don't recall any start by any team that good with a brand new coach.
I think this is a pretty good line considering the recency bias and the fact the game is in Dallas. I want to bet Ohio State but my gut is telling me not to. I doubt that I will make a bet on this game.
several websites are offering AI picks on sports bets - and I believe the picks are free at most of the sites - they priced them right
I don't believe AI picks can beat the lines in the long run for many different reasons - I don't wanna list all of them here
it would just be so easy to go to some sites and get some winning picks - but in reality beating the lines is never easy
would like to hear other opinions about this
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Quote: lilredrooster.
several websites are offering AI picks on sports bets - and I believe the picks are free at most of the sites - they priced them right
I don't believe AI picks can beat the lines in the long run for many different reasons - I don't wanna list all of them here
it would just be so easy to go to some sites and get some winning picks - but in reality beating the lines is never easy
would like to hear other opinions about this
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It's a relatively short track record, but AI has shown it can outperform most stock pickers, so why not most sports bettors?The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
Quote: billryanQuote: lilredrooster.
several websites are offering AI picks on sports bets - and I believe the picks are free at most of the sites - they priced them right
I don't believe AI picks can beat the lines in the long run for many different reasons - I don't wanna list all of them here
it would just be so easy to go to some sites and get some winning picks - but in reality beating the lines is never easy
would like to hear other opinions about this
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It's a relatively short track record, but AI has shown it can outperform most stock pickers, so why not most sports bettors?
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well for example
an AI site picks a fave at -3 when the betting opens up
a great many bet that pick and within a couple of hours the line is at -4.5 - and the pick is no longer good
if it ever was a good pick - and websites could post lies (shocking isn't it) about their record with AI
.the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: billryanQuote: lilredrooster.
several websites are offering AI picks on sports bets - and I believe the picks are free at most of the sites - they priced them right
I don't believe AI picks can beat the lines in the long run for many different reasons - I don't wanna list all of them here
it would just be so easy to go to some sites and get some winning picks - but in reality beating the lines is never easy
would like to hear other opinions about this
.
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It's a relatively short track record, but AI has shown it can outperform most stock pickers, so why not most sports bettors?
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well for example
an AI site picks a fave at -3 when the betting opens up
a great many bet that pick and within a couple of hours the line is at -4.5 - and the pick is no longer good
if it ever was a good pick - and websites could post lies (shocking isn't it) about their record with AI
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Ummmm…. If the AI identifies a ‘-3’ spread as worth betting on, it will bet on it. It doesn’t matter if YOU can’t get that bet down later.
But yesterday hit 6 leg NHL parlay. All slight favorites. Was 20-1, before boost, and became 30-1 with. Last leg was Avalanche who needed goal in last minute to tie, and frantic penalty kill in OT! Anyway, hitting on of these makes up for the 10 losses in a row preceding. Hit a 3 legger as well.
Point being, as all the APs here know, you just have to trust your EV calculations, and be funded properly to capitalize safely.
Jokic hit his usual triple double. I don’t think he played the last 15 minutes of the game.
it just seems too easy to me - open up your AI website make your picks and watch the money roll in
hard for me to believe beating sports could be that easy
there needs to be some reliable long term data from someone outside the sports betting industry to really understand its possibilities and its limitations
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Quote: lilredrooster.
it just seems too easy to me - open up your AI website make your picks and watch the money roll in
hard for me to believe beating sports could be that easy
there needs to be some reliable long term data from someone outside the sports betting industry to really understand its possibilities and its limitations
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I generally agree here. If the AI is that good at it, you don’t think the line setters would use it as well?
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
it just seems too easy to me - open up your AI website make your picks and watch the money roll in
hard for me to believe beating sports could be that easy
there needs to be some reliable long term data from someone outside the sports betting industry to really understand its possibilities and its limitations
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I generally agree here. If the AI is that good at it, you don’t think the line setters would use it as well?
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EXACTLY_______!!!!
they will use it if they believe the analysis is sharp
and the bettors will still have to pay the vig
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those sites you mention, rooster, those are sites suggesting what to bet on, and you can pay for more, correct?
So needed to deposit $2k into Caesars to make immediate bet. Used their ‘preferred expedited transfer’ or whatever it was called. They did explain if you use this you cannot withdraw it without a 1x playthrough. Since I was betting it all it wasn’t an issue, but I’m surprised they can get away with that requirement when NOT given a bonus of any sort.
I’m going to miss this when I’m in Florida. Hard Rock is actually ok for offers/boosts, but it’s only one Sportsbook. .
they say I'm 'welcome' when I sign in, but ...
Quote: odiousgambityes, the house will be the one using the AI first, and any AI offered to the casual user? buyer beware!
those sites you mention, rooster, those are sites suggesting what to bet on, and you can pay for more, correct?
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yeah, I think so - I haven't gone into it in depth
I basically don't trust anybody offering picks - I agree with you 100% -
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: odiousgambityes, the house will be the one using the AI first, and any AI offered to the casual user? buyer beware!
those sites you mention, rooster, those are sites suggesting what to bet on, and you can pay for more, correct?
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yeah, I think so - I haven't gone into it in depth
I basically don't trust anybody offering picks - I agree with you 100% -
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I don't trust people selling picks. It has to be a lock or I'm passing.
Anyway, today, no more free game to play!
Also, since my offers have been better I’ve been betting more. So got a bunch of ‘VIP’ offers. They are just 10% profit boosts. So I have to really work to find a +EV way to use them. So for my $250 limit I got my +EV to a few $. But I’ve hit all of them. So EV was maybe $10 in total, but I’m up around $1000 on those 4 bets.
Anyway, today, no more VIP offers.
Today is last day for me to bet BetMGM for a while. I’ll find out if it’s ‘me’ or just a coincidence. But not for a few months.
But…. FINALLY!
Had profit boost to guarantee a few $ win. Was able to get Rams +6.5. But other side was Eagles -6.
So I win one and the hedge was a push. So instead of $2 or $3 it was $55 or so. That’s the excitement I crave.
I bet Ohio State -9, Ohio State -8, Over 46, and Notre Dame + 10.5 (+100), If Ohio state happens to win by 10 with the total going over it will help me get near even for the year.
The way the year has been going it will most likely be ND winning in a low scoring game.
Quote: DRichLast college football game of the season tonight. I have had a bad year betting college football this year so hopefully I can make up some of that tonight.
I bet Ohio State -9, Ohio State -8, Over 46, and Notre Dame + 10.5, If Ohio state happens to win by 10 with the total going over it will help me get near even for the year.
The way the year has been going it will most likely be ND winning in a low scoring game.
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I bet a friend $25, getting the Irish and 12 points. I have little confidence in it, but I couldn't pass on the points. As much as I dislike them, OSU looks like a juggernaut—the end of an extraordinary season.
Quote: billryanQuote: DRichLast college football game of the season tonight. I have had a bad year betting college football this year so hopefully I can make up some of that tonight.
I bet Ohio State -9, Ohio State -8, Over 46, and Notre Dame + 10.5, If Ohio state happens to win by 10 with the total going over it will help me get near even for the year.
The way the year has been going it will most likely be ND winning in a low scoring game.
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I bet a friend $25, getting the Irish and 12 points. I have little confidence in it, but I couldn't pass on the points. As much as I dislike them, OSU looks like a juggernaut—the end of an extraordinary season.
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I think this year had the most teams that I believed could win it all. No real dominant team.
The Wizard helped immensely by answering questions about it on his live youtube show. However, I haven't come across anything written by anyone anywhere else that isn't more attuned to brick and mortar sportsbooks, and there, I believe, you find no offers
I recently found something else I was evaluating wrong. I had assumed that a 30% profit boost [to winnings] would make a 3 leg parlay bet nicely +EV, since if you keep the legs to @5% HE per leg, the EV gets magnified to @15% DAE*. Instead my new number crunching shows that the player DAE only becomes @3%. Obviously, then, choosing legs with greater vig than 5% can put you in -EV territory. Meanwhile even the 3% is marginal enough to lead to a pretty slow climb in bankroll, with reversals likely for sure. Yes , of course 50% boosts get it done excepting the most idiotic parlay betting.
I've learned better than to ask someone to check my math, but I've added it to my recent blog post, "Second Chance Parlay Betting", about half way down under BOOSTS if you want to look at it.
* DAE standing for “Deceptive Apparent Edge” as I refuse to call it a magnified "house edge" , since that implies the edge of a game can be changed by a betting system. Umm, like so many gambling writers do. Shame on them.
for my next revelation, a 20% boost to a prop bet, even one that is pick-a-side binary win or lose, is easily -EV. You can use the Wiz calculator to prove it to yourself.
for example, a 20% boost to a NHL prop for goal-in-first-10-min shows -200 or +154 over/under 0.5 goals, resp., which is what I'm seeing right now on a site that often does the 20% boost offer
the Wiz calc shows that's a 5.69% HE that you might assume would go +EV with a 20% boost to winnings.
take the +154 and bet a dollar
1.54 in winnings with a 20% boost becomes 1.848 or ... let's say they round up and give Am. odds increased to +185 ha ha
the Wiz calc shows HE is 1.72% ................... reduced HE but not +EV
Yep I didn't do the math till now, no excuse too since there are calculators to use
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/straight-bet-calculator/
Quote: odiousgambitconversation stopper continued,
for my next revelation, a 20% boost to a prop bet, even one that is pick-a-side binary win or lose, is easily -EV. You can use the Wiz calculator to prove it to yourself.
for example, a 20% boost to a NHL prop for goal-in-first-10-min shows -200 or +154 over/under 0.5 goals, resp., which is what I'm seeing right now on a site that often does the 20% boost offer
the Wiz calc shows that's a 5.69% HE that you might assume would go +EV with a 20% boost to winnings.
take the +154 and bet a dollar
1.54 in winnings with a 20% boost becomes 1.848 or ... let's say they round up and give Am. odds increased to +185 ha ha
the Wiz calc shows HE is 1.72% ................... reduced HE but not +EV
Yep I didn't do the math till now, no excuse too since there are calculators to use
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/straight-bet-calculator/
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If the two lines available are -200 and +154, I’m pretty sure +185 is slightly + EV. I’m not sure what calculator you are using, but I’ll suggest you made a mistake somewhere.
I have been getting a bunch of 10% boosts from Hard Rock. As offered, I can’t get them to be +EV. I’ve been using them on $1 bets probably losing a penny per bet. The 30% and 50% ones I’m playing max, which has been usually $25 or $50.
I am considering a ‘life + EV’ bet for this weekend. Taking the Chiefs. There is no reasonable amount of money I could bet on the Chiefs to win that I still wouldn’t be rooting all in on the Bills. So $1150 to win $1000? Happy to lose $1150 or sad to win $1000?
the calculator was included in the post and is posted again above.Quote: SOOPOOIf the two lines available are -200 and +154, I’m pretty sure +185 is slightly + EV. I’m not sure what calculator you are using, but I’ll suggest you made a mistake somewhere.
Doing an alternative method, estimating the "true probability" lies between the suggested probability each way, you can come up with a slightly +EV figure, but it's guesswork [the oddsmaker is guessing too].
50% for sure will put you +EV . I am ceasing and desisting where the Wiz Calc. says beware, which 30% boost might avoid, but 20% probably won'tQuote:I have been getting a bunch of 10% boosts from Hard Rock. As offered, I can’t get them to be +EV. I’ve been using them on $1 bets probably losing a penny per bet. The 30% and 50% ones I’m playing max, which has been usually $25 or $50.
I am considering a ‘life + EV’ bet for this weekend. Taking the Chiefs. There is no reasonable amount of money I could bet on the Chiefs to win that I still wouldn’t be rooting all in on the Bills. So $1150 to win $1000? Happy to lose $1150 or sad to win $1000?
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PS: really beware when the prop bet has "yes" odds but gives no way to bet the opposite
Don't buy into to the BS tout and investment services no matter what smoke and mirrors BS they use to pad their records.
https://youtu.be/7N05vGcw_tI?si=J_fd8sug3oP857xq
Moderators, if you can modify the link to watch directly from here I would appreciate it as I don't know how to with that particular format.
Quote: odiousgambithttps://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/straight-bet-calculator/
the calculator was included in the post and is posted again above.Quote: SOOPOOIf the two lines available are -200 and +154, I’m pretty sure +185 is slightly + EV. I’m not sure what calculator you are using, but I’ll suggest you made a mistake somewhere.
Doing an alternative method, estimating the "true probability" lies between the suggested probability each way, you can come up with a slightly +EV figure, but it's guesswork [the oddsmaker is guessing too].
50% for sure will put you +EV . I am ceasing and desisting where the Wiz Calc. says beware, which 30% boost might avoid, but 20% probably won'tQuote:I have been getting a bunch of 10% boosts from Hard Rock. As offered, I can’t get them to be +EV. I’ve been using them on $1 bets probably losing a penny per bet. The 30% and 50% ones I’m playing max, which has been usually $25 or $50.
I am considering a ‘life + EV’ bet for this weekend. Taking the Chiefs. There is no reasonable amount of money I could bet on the Chiefs to win that I still wouldn’t be rooting all in on the Bills. So $1150 to win $1000? Happy to lose $1150 or sad to win $1000?
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PS: really beware when the prop bet has "yes" odds but gives no way to bet the opposite
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Geez OG. You ask a question but you don’t even know what question you are asking. I see the calculator you link to. It gives you the 5.69% house edge. For a + 154 bet when the other side is -200. But you were asking if using the profit boost to get you to +185 makes it + EV. My answer is YES, but not a lot. And the calculator you link DOES NOT help with the answer.
100% agree on the bets with only a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ option! Player hitting a home run on some sites only gives a yes. If I think I have a +EV offer I have to go to one of the other sites and see what their ‘no’ odds are. I can usually then tell if the first offer is +EV or not.
why not? the -200 does not change, right?Quote: SOOPOOGeez OG. You ask a question but you don’t even know what question you are asking. I see the calculator you link to. It gives you the 5.69% house edge. For a + 154 bet when the other side is -200. But you were asking if using the profit boost to get you to +185 makes it + EV. My answer is YES, but not a lot. And the calculator you link DOES NOT help with the answer.
I noticed DK [I think] switching to a "yes" only bet for when Judge was killing them with a home run streak , and you could get a boost on the bet. And yes, saw that they increased the HE when they switchedQuote:100% agree on the bets with only a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ option! Player hitting a home run on some sites only gives a yes. If I think I have a +EV offer I have to go to one of the other sites and see what their ‘no’ odds are. I can usually then tell if the first offer is +EV or not.
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because when a book offers +154 on one side and -200 on the other side the ‘fair’ line is ‘around’ +175 and -175, depending on which side you want. So if you can get + 185 when the fair line is +175, it’s +EV. It doesn’t matter that you can bet it atQuote: odiousgambitwhy not? the -200 does not change, right?Quote: SOOPOOGeez OG. You ask a question but you don’t even know what question you are asking. I see the calculator you link to. It gives you the 5.69% house edge. For a + 154 bet when the other side is -200. But you were asking if using the profit boost to get you to +185 makes it + EV. My answer is YES, but not a lot. And the calculator you link DOES NOT help with the answer.
I noticed DK [I think] switching to a "yes" only bet for when Judge was killing them with a home run streak , and you could get a boost on the bet. And yes, saw that they increased the HE when they switchedQuote:100% agree on the bets with only a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ option! Player hitting a home run on some sites only gives a yes. If I think I have a +EV offer I have to go to one of the other sites and see what their ‘no’ odds are. I can usually then tell if the first offer is +EV or not.
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a -EV at -200. At +185 it’s still +EV.
well, I'm glad to hear it. Good answerQuote: SOOPOO[snipped, and quotes combined] .... the calculator you link DOES NOT help with the answer ... because when a book offers +154 on one side and -200 on the other side the ‘fair’ line is ‘around’ +175 and -175, depending on which side you want. So if you can get + 185 when the fair line is +175, it’s +EV. It doesn’t matter that you can bet it at a -EV at -200. At +185 it’s still +EV.
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Thinking about it, approaching +200 has to be good enough, to get boosted past +200 puts it 'upside down' to quote unJon
searching now for a fair line calculator, they're out there I think
PS: Wizard seems not to have one, but found this: https://unabated.com/betting-calculators/no-vig-fair-odds-calculator .... this puts the fair line at 175.4 for the case in point
thanks for the help!!
this got buried due to unfortunate timing ... I'll take a lookQuote: AxelWolfHere is a proper sports betting operation.
Don't buy into to the BS tout and investment services no matter what smoke and mirrors BS they use to pad their records.
https://youtu.be/7N05vGcw_tI?si=J_fd8sug3oP857xq
Moderators, if you can modify the link to watch directly from here I would appreciate it as I don't know how to with that particular format.
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the format is always youtube=something and put it in brackets ... sometimes recognizing the pertinent part to save is tricky
Quote: odiousgambit
PS: Wizard seems not to have one, but found this: https://unabated.com/betting-calculators/no-vig-fair-odds-calculator ....
Thanks for this link.
It is helpful to evaluate + EV opportunities that are not so positive that you can guarantee a win by hedging on a second Sportsbook. Now that I only have access to one legal on shore book I’ll be using that link to try and find even small +EV opportunities and not hedge. I think that’s called GAMBLING!
