Boise St. +18.5
Oklahoma -27.5
Tennessee -7.5
Colorado +7.5
UCF -21.5
Syracuse +3.5
Rutgers -23.5
Quote: DRichI only have a few college football bets today as not much jumped out to me. All small bets $50 or less.
Boise St. +18.5
Oklahoma -27.5
Tennessee -7.5
Colorado +7.5
UCF -21.5
Syracuse +3.5
Rutgers -23.5
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I had to look at who Rutgers was giving 23 points to. I figured it was an exhibition against some high school, but it's the Akron Zips.
The Zips are ranked 132 out of the 134 D1 football programs.
Quote: billryanQuote: DRichI only have a few college football bets today as not much jumped out to me. All small bets $50 or less.
Boise St. +18.5
Oklahoma -27.5
Tennessee -7.5
Colorado +7.5
UCF -21.5
Syracuse +3.5
Rutgers -23.5
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I had to look at who Rutgers was giving 23 points to. I figured it was an exhibition against some high school, but it's the Akron Zips.
The Zips are ranked 132 out of the 134 D1 football programs.
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At 132 the Zips may be overrated.
At the end of the first period the Steelers are up 1-0. The in game line is steelers +1.5 -105.
Before today I had never heard of the Sheffield Steelers but I am a fan today.
Quote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: SOOPOO
Barkley/Jacob’s bet hit already. Still 13 minutes to go…
Barkley looked very good.
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I think he might be the first big Free Agent a team I follow has lost in a long time. I was blindsided by his decision to jump ship like that and thrilled that his new career had started with him losing five yards on his first carry. I hope he stays healthy and the team collapses around him, but that's not very likely.
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Giants management gave the 25th best QB $40 million a year rather than give Barkley $37 million over 3 years. And I’m being generous calling him 25th best….Even in the new NFL with running backs devalued, at $12 million a year Barkley would be worth it. Do you think the Giants will have ANY Rb with 3 TDs by week 5?
Quote: DRichI just made an in game bet that is a total crapshoot but I had a free $10 bet to use.
At the end of the first period the Steelers are up 1-0. The in game line is steelers +1.5 -105.
Before today I had never heard of the Sheffield Steelers but I am a fan today.
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Another brilliant pick and win for DRICH.
Steelers 3 Lakers 2 Final
It just shows how important research and analysis is in betting.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: SOOPOO
Barkley/Jacob’s bet hit already. Still 13 minutes to go…
Barkley looked very good.
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I think he might be the first big Free Agent a team I follow has lost in a long time. I was blindsided by his decision to jump ship like that and thrilled that his new career had started with him losing five yards on his first carry. I hope he stays healthy and the team collapses around him, but that's not very likely.
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Giants management gave the 25th best QB $40 million a year rather than give Barkley $37 million over 3 years. And I’m being generous calling him 25th best….Even in the new NFL with running backs devalued, at $12 million a year Barkley would be worth it. Do you think the Giants will have ANY Rb with 3 TDs by week 5?
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I expect to contend for the number one draft pick. They'll most likely screw that up with a late-season victory. I think Jones might be a decent QB but he has no weapons.
Betting on Greenbay +3
I think there's about 12 more dogs between tomorrow and Monday.
I got down $2,200 so far.
Yes, one place (WH) asked for ID at 3k in bets
FYI Circa didn't want ID until over 10k.
Quote: AxelWolfI bet all the remaining Dogs just now for $2,200 ea, I'm over 22k bet so far.
Yes, one place (WH) asked for ID at 3k in bets
FYI Circa didn't want ID until over 10k.
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Go Dogs! Is this just a pure cash play or are you getting points/boosts/etc.. for your bets as well?
WILDLY different lines on the NASCAR race today. I got Larson at +1600. Was only +750 on first book I checked. Blaney is favorite at +700 on one book, I got him at +1200 elsewhere. I (think?) they are both slightly +EV.
My longshot pick for today (+690) is Dawson Knox TD.
Everyone is yapping about the Bills’ other TE, Kincaid. Knox is a big bodied red zone (potential) target.
. That would be me….. But….. it’s only because I have one offer that makes taking the biggest underdog the best bet. Sadly, I hedge these and only made a small win….Maybe lunch at a diner..!Quote: GenoDRPhI congratulate those who bet the Patriots to win, and bet the under!
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My one pick that I loved that hit was Daniel’s over rushing total. I think he’s a good bet to break 1000 yards rushing.
So many good NFL games. Both for watching and betting…!
I already bet AGAINST the Panthers next week. Only had to give 4.5 points. I predict that line will go up and up!
Quote: SOOPOO
So many good NFL games. Both for watching and betting…!
Sadly, i was travelling yesterday and only watched about 20 minutes of NFL. I am not a big NFL fan, but i usually still watch two or three games a week.
Steelers -3 Broncos (plus 4 times ½ points).
BetRivers sent me a 50% boost to use today. Said max bet $25. When I tried to use it I was limited to around $8. Why give it to me at all? Seems like if I’ve been identified as a ‘winner’ why let me win anything? (I won $12 on that bet today!)
Purely cash at the books in person, I barely line shopped as I only bet 3 different places.Quote: SOOPOOQuote: AxelWolfI bet all the remaining Dogs just now for $2,200 ea, I'm over 22k bet so far.
Yes, one place (WH) asked for ID at 3k in bets
FYI Circa didn't want ID until over 10k.
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Go Dogs! Is this just a pure cash play or are you getting points/boosts/etc.. for your bets as well?
WILDLY different lines on the NASCAR race today. I got Larson at +1600. Was only +750 on first book I checked. Blaney is favorite at +700 on one book, I got him at +1200 elsewhere. I (think?) they are both slightly +EV.
My longshot pick for today (+690) is Dawson Knox TD.
Everyone is yapping about the Bills’ other TE, Kincaid. Knox is a big bodied red zone (potential) target.
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I only watched 3 games so far so I'm not even sure where I'm at, and I still have a game left.
Here in Vegas I haven't noticed anything from the regulated online apps that gives anything extra. There might be stuff I don't know about, I just haven't investigated.
As far.as betting offshore with bonuses I have something totally different going on and I didn't want to mix this in.
Quote: SOOPOOI like BetMGM boost today. Hall and McCaffrey each to get 60 yards rushing. +240. I’d say Hall hits 60%, Maccaffrey 70%. So +240 seems good.
Doesn’t mean I’m gonna win, but BetMGM dropped the offer to +220. And my previous post taking Chargers over Panthers giving 4.5 is looking better too! Line is now 6.5.
As far as Axel betting $25k ish on the NFL, if I trusted that they were actually +EV, I could get a bunch of points (=money), Tier status, by betting that much. The negative is of course it is a permanent record on line, as opposed to cash in Axel’s pocket at the local books.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SOOPOOI like BetMGM boost today. Hall and McCaffrey each to get 60 yards rushing. +240. I’d say Hall hits 60%, Maccaffrey 70%. So +240 seems good.
Doesn’t mean I’m gonna win, but BetMGM dropped the offer to +220. And my previous post taking Chargers over Panthers giving 4.5 is looking better too! Line is now 6.5.
As far as Axel betting $25k ish on the NFL, if I trusted that they were actually +EV, I could get a bunch of points (=money), Tier status, by betting that much. The negative is of course it is a permanent record on line, as opposed to cash in Axel’s pocket at the local books.
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CMC out
I’m no sports betting guru.Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SOOPOOI like BetMGM boost today. Hall and McCaffrey each to get 60 yards rushing. +240. I’d say Hall hits 60%, Maccaffrey 70%. So +240 seems good.
Doesn’t mean I’m gonna win, but BetMGM dropped the offer to +220. And my previous post taking Chargers over Panthers giving 4.5 is looking better too! Line is now 6.5.
As far as Axel betting $25k ish on the NFL, if I trusted that they were actually +EV, I could get a bunch of points (=money), Tier status, by betting that much. The negative is of course it is a permanent record on line, as opposed to cash in Axel’s pocket at the local books.
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I believe rooster"s stats and the logic behind thise stats make sense to me. I also talked to a few people regarding this method who I know have been making money sports betting for years they also agree it's +EV. Unfortunately it's not like a Video poker machine where one can provide 100% mathematical proof it's +EV.
FYI My Wife helps put in the bets and gets involved checking score, watching games etc (she watcjed more football than I did this weekend) .
+EV and some entertainment value with my wife is always nice and extra added EV.
Quote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOQuote: SOOPOOI like BetMGM boost today. Hall and McCaffrey each to get 60 yards rushing. +240. I’d say Hall hits 60%, Maccaffrey 70%. So +240 seems good.
Doesn’t mean I’m gonna win, but BetMGM dropped the offer to +220. And my previous post taking Chargers over Panthers giving 4.5 is looking better too! Line is now 6.5.
As far as Axel betting $25k ish on the NFL, if I trusted that they were actually +EV, I could get a bunch of points (=money), Tier status, by betting that much. The negative is of course it is a permanent record on line, as opposed to cash in Axel’s pocket at the local books.
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CMC out
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I can’t explain it well, but the 49ers just look like a well coached team and the Jets do not. I hate Rodgers, but he was not the reason the Jets lost. (Stupid me) made a few hedge bets on the Jets after CMC ruled out.
Whenever I list the top QBs, I always seem to forget Purdy. I shouldn’t. If Prescott got $60 mil a year, does Purdy get $61 mil?
I got Bills over 48.5 on Thursday. How do you stop Hill/Waddle/Achane? How do you stop Josh Allen?
Quote: SOOPOO
Whenever I list the top QBs, I always seem to forget Purdy. I shouldn’t. If Prescott got $60 mil a year, does Purdy get $61 mil?
I believe he is making less than $1 million this season.
Quote: DRichSoopoo, do you have any insight on the University of Buffalo football team? I haven't seen either of their games but they are only laying 3.5 points tomorrow and by the stats it looks like a decent play.
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Not really. General impression is a down year. Didn’t do much at all against Mizzou. I can’t bet on them here in NY.
Quote: GenoDRPhhttps://www.espn.com/sports-betting/story/_/id/41246553/south-alabama-blowout-leads-voided-bets-unique-settlements
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"The NCAA's official football rulebook says, "Any time during the game, the playing time of any remaining period or periods may be shortened by mutual agreement of the opposing head coaches and the referee."
Wow, I was not aware of that. I believe most Vegas sportsbook rules will prevent them from paying a winner.
After watching that game I believe UNLV is going to be a team I m betting against a lot in the next few weeks.
Quote: DRichQuote: GenoDRPhhttps://www.espn.com/sports-betting/story/_/id/41246553/south-alabama-blowout-leads-voided-bets-unique-settlements
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"The NCAA's official football rulebook says, "Any time during the game, the playing time of any remaining period or periods may be shortened by mutual agreement of the opposing head coaches and the referee."
Wow, I was not aware of that. I believe most Vegas sportsbook rules will prevent them from paying a winner.
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The article says most sportsbook require a game to go at least 55 minutes for bets to be valid.
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: DRichQuote: GenoDRPhhttps://www.espn.com/sports-betting/story/_/id/41246553/south-alabama-blowout-leads-voided-bets-unique-settlements
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"The NCAA's official football rulebook says, "Any time during the game, the playing time of any remaining period or periods may be shortened by mutual agreement of the opposing head coaches and the referee."
Wow, I was not aware of that. I believe most Vegas sportsbook rules will prevent them from paying a winner.
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The article says most sportsbook require a game to go at least 55 minutes for bets to be valid.
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I was at the Wisconsin vs UNLV game when the power went out and the game was ended with Wisconsin covering. Wisconsin fans were convinced it was intentional so the books didn;t have to pay their Wisconsin bets.
oddsmakers have gotten too excited about them?Quote: DRichA big win for UNLV over Kansas tonight. this is the first time UNLV has been 3-0 since Randall Cunningham was quarterback for them.
After watching that game I believe UNLV is going to be a team I m betting against a lot in the next few weeks.
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Quote: odiousgambitoddsmakers have gotten too excited about them?Quote: DRichA big win for UNLV over Kansas tonight. this is the first time UNLV has been 3-0 since Randall Cunningham was quarterback for them.
After watching that game I believe UNLV is going to be a team I m betting against a lot in the next few weeks.
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I think the public will overvalue them.
NBC, ABC, CBS, FOX, ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU will all have a college football game on at the same time. There are also games on CBSSports and FS1. Sadly, I can only watch and record four at a time.
Quote: DRichIn about 15 minutes something is happening that I don't remember seeing before.
NBC, ABC, CBS, FOX, ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU will all have a college football game on at the same time. There are also games on CBSSports and FS1. Sadly, I can only watch and record four at a time.
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I also have WNLO. (Ole Miss-WAKE)
SNY. (Stony Brook -Fordham)
Tru. (Kennesaw -San Jose)
BTN. (Northern Iowa -Nebraska)
SEC. (Kent St-Tenn)
BTENOHD (Eastern I’ll- Northwestern)
Maybe more. What kind of pathetic cable package do you have?
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichIn about 15 minutes something is happening that I don't remember seeing before.
NBC, ABC, CBS, FOX, ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU will all have a college football game on at the same time. There are also games on CBSSports and FS1. Sadly, I can only watch and record four at a time.
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I also have WNLO. (Ole Miss-WAKE)
SNY. (Stony Brook -Fordham)
Tru. (Kennesaw -San Jose)
BTN. (Northern Iowa -Nebraska)
SEC. (Kent St-Tenn)
BTENOHD (Eastern I’ll- Northwestern)
Maybe more. What kind of pathetic cable package do you have?
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I did forget BTN and SEC but I was just showing the popular stations that I think the majority of people get.
Thank you for the TRU reminder, I have action on San Jose St.
My Ball State +35.5 pick was not my best work.
Quote: toolypI suggest a thread dedicated to the sport and season. Maybe this year should read “American Football Betting 2024”. Cuz there is an even bigger betting phenom “Football Proper (Soccer”).
Steelers -3 Broncos (plus 4 times ½ points).
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YUP!
I couldn't even speculate what that would be. The New Orleans saints did that to start the year.
Quote: DRichThe bumbling NY Giants did a first yesterday. The first team to ever score three or more touchdowns while giving up no touchdowns and still losing the game.
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it does seem ridiculous________but -
their field goal kicker was injured on the first play of the game and couldn't play the rest of the game
on their first TD they tried a PAT with their punter but it missed
on their next 2 TDs they tried for 2 and failed
it really was just a horrible bad break for them
they most prolly would have won if he was not injured
and the Commander guy kicked 7 field goals - a franchise record
the NFL record is 8
.
Quote: DRichWhat would guess the odds would be for a NFL team to score on 15 consecutive possessions?
I couldn't even speculate what that would be. The New Orleans saints did that to start the year.
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Not as long as you’d think. A good offensive team playing a bad defensive team is a strong favorite to score on a possession. A bunch of the possessions may have been turnovers resulting in a ‘short field’.
However, making it much more difficult is the fact that a ‘victory formation kneeldowns’ counts as a possession, as does a similar ‘give up’ at the end of the first half.
I’m guessing it is about as likely as rolling three yo’s in a row?
Just got Raiders at -5. Panthers ‘might’ do better by their benching of Bryce Young. But I’ll still ride the ‘anti-Panthers’ train.
I think Axel must have won big first two weeks. Feels like dogs covered a lot!
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: DRichThe bumbling NY Giants did a first yesterday. The first team to ever score three or more touchdowns while giving up no touchdowns and still losing the game.
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it does seem ridiculous________but -
their field goal kicker was injured on the first play of the game and couldn't play the rest of the game
on their first TD they tried a PAT with their punter but it missed
on their next 2 TDs they tried for 2 and failed
it really was just a horrible bad break for them
they most prolly would have won if he was not injured
and the Commander guy kicked 7 field goals - a franchise record
the NFL record is 8
.
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I've often wondered why teams don't have the punter practice place kicking and the place kicker practice punting, just in case this exact scenario occurs.
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: lilredroosterQuote: DRichThe bumbling NY Giants did a first yesterday. The first team to ever score three or more touchdowns while giving up no touchdowns and still losing the game.
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it does seem ridiculous________but -
their field goal kicker was injured on the first play of the game and couldn't play the rest of the game
on their first TD they tried a PAT with their punter but it missed
on their next 2 TDs they tried for 2 and failed
it really was just a horrible bad break for them
they most prolly would have won if he was not injured
and the Commander guy kicked 7 field goals - a franchise record
the NFL record is 8
.
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I've often wondered why teams don't have the punter practice place kicking and the place kicker practice punting, just in case this exact scenario occurs.
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Many teams do have the punter and kicker back each other up. Punting is much easier because less is usually on the line. A bad 30 yard punt doesn't upset people but if you miss a 30 yard field goal people are upset.
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: lilredroosterQuote: DRichThe bumbling NY Giants did a first yesterday. The first team to ever score three or more touchdowns while giving up no touchdowns and still losing the game.
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it does seem ridiculous________but -
their field goal kicker was injured on the first play of the game and couldn't play the rest of the game
on their first TD they tried a PAT with their punter but it missed
on their next 2 TDs they tried for 2 and failed
it really was just a horrible bad break for them
they most prolly would have won if he was not injured
and the Commander guy kicked 7 field goals - a franchise record
the NFL record is 8
.
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I've often wondered why teams don't have the punter practice place kicking and the placekicker practice punting, just in case this exact scenario occurs.
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Well coached teams have back up plans in case their back up plan screws up. This is the Giants.
Quote: lilredrooster.
NFL picks - first 2 weeks - all underdogs ats_______it's that time____the season starts tomorrow
Winner, Winner - Chicken Chow Mein Dinner
carryout only - it was only a tiny win - those ever lovin' underdogs went 17-15 per my tracking on covers.com -
in the first 2 weeks I have now tracked the dogs winning 11 of 12 seasons - and the one season they didn't win was a tie
.
FD gave live profit boost letting me get 3-1 on Falcons ML early in the 1st Q. 3-1!
BetMGM Lion Boost was easy money. Barkley and Robinson 50 each. That was never in doubt.
Needed baseball underdog today…. Go Reds!
Maybe a trend? Go OVER on FGs? Teams seem to be routinely trying 52+ yarders. And making them.
I need some random CFB picks. DRich? Gimme some!
Quote: SOOPOO\
Maybe a trend? Go OVER on FGs? Teams seem to be routinely trying 52+ yarders. And making them.
Good call. Field goals of over 50 yards used to be rare but are very common now.
I bet my games last minute and did not have time to line shop, I have yet to check where I stand, but I have a feeling not being able to line shop cost me thousands since there were at least 2 pushes. Had I had time to shop, I could have probably got an extra 1/2 -1 point.Quote: lilredroosterQuote: lilredrooster.
NFL picks - first 2 weeks - all underdogs ats_______it's that time____the season starts tomorrow
Winner, Winner - Chicken Chow Mein Dinner
carryout only - it was only a tiny win - those ever lovin' underdogs went 17-15 per my tracking on covers.com -
in the first 2 weeks I have now tracked the dogs winning 11 of 12 seasons - and the one season they didn't win was a tie
.
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The last quarter of the Monday night game (Falcons vs the Eagles) was super fun to watch.
They should just play hurry-up offense all the time.
Quote: AxelWolfI bet my games last minute and did not have time to line shop, I have yet to check where I stand, but I have a feeling not being able to line shop cost me thousands since there were at least 2 pushes. Had I had time to shop, I could have probably got an extra 1/2 -1 point.Quote: lilredroosterQuote: lilredrooster.
NFL picks - first 2 weeks - all underdogs ats_______it's that time____the season starts tomorrow
Winner, Winner - Chicken Chow Mein Dinner
carryout only - it was only a tiny win - those ever lovin' underdogs went 17-15 per my tracking on covers.com -
in the first 2 weeks I have now tracked the dogs winning 11 of 12 seasons - and the one season they didn't win was a tie
.
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The last quarter of the Monday night game (Falcons vs the Eagles) was super fun to watch.
They should just play hurry-up offense all the time.
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Are you taking +3.5 and under or will you take 4
I didn't shop for the best lines in my first 2 weeks dogs picks
I never do when I do a tracking
I know everybody can't get the best lines
I use the line posted by covers.com after the games are over which is the final and most common line among the various books
but coincidentally, it may often be the best line if someone is betting the dogs - since I have noticed (but not documented) the trend of the faves getting bet down late
I was curious so I googled, and the research done by those at the link confirms the old maxim that it's bet to bet faves early and dogs late
but of course it won't work every time and may sometimes work against you
https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/should-you-really-bet-nfl-favorites-early-and-underdogs-late/
.