Sports betting chatter
October 13th, 2022 at 6:21:28 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjNote 1: " +++ " is the highest that I will go for any team or total (each "+" is roughly = to one "betting unit").
Note 2: I just cut and pasted from the 'book that I am using, so that is why it is written the "VS way" (usually the home team is first, when listed this way).
WESTERN MICHIGAN VS OHIO: +++
Western Michigan ML ($2.02 decimal odds)
link to original post
Lots of hockey offers yesterday. They mostly require a same game parlay. I’m 3/4 so far! And being parlays that’s great!!!
Avalanche-1.5/over 6.5. Oilers ML/over 6.5. Standard winners.
I had Rangers first goal. Rangers last goal. Even total. Under 4.5. Basically Rangers needed to win 2-0 or 3-1. It was the two best goalies. Only a $10 bet….
Makes up for the dozens of losing bets I don’t report…. My bets tonight seem tied to Bears winning and Justin Fields running a lot. I win $$$ if he runs for over 50 and scores a TD.
October 13th, 2022 at 12:10:26 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
Western Michigan ML ($2.02 decimal odds)
link to original post
Lots of hockey offers yesterday. They mostly require a same game parlay. I’m 3/4 so far! And being parlays that’s great!!!
Avalanche-1.5/over 6.5. Oilers ML/over 6.5. Standard winners.
(snip)
I had Rangers first goal. Rangers last goal. Even total. Under 4.5. Basically Rangers needed to win 2-0 or 3-1. It was the two best goalies. Only a $10 bet….
(snip)
Makes up for the dozens of losing bets I don’t report…. My bets tonight seem tied to Bears winning and Justin Fields running a lot. I win $$$ if he runs for over 50 and scores a TD.
link to original post
Awesome, I can't get same game parlays for NHL.
Hope the Bears win.
With the "power of hind-sight", I should have waited for my bet on them (to get better odds).
The W. Mich. odds have gone from, 2.02 to 1.98, though (which almost makes up for the Bears going to 2.05).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 13, 2022
October 13th, 2022 at 11:09:12 PM
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Below is a table of all^^^ my " x x " and "x x x" NCAAF bets this week.
^^^: Not including the ones that have already been resulted.
Note 1: "x x " and " x x x " = "+ + " and "+ + + " , respectively (as it is easier to put in the spread sheet that way).
Note 2: "x x" = 10%-12% estimated EV and "x x x" = 12%+ estimated EV.
Note 3: all odds are $1.90 (decimal) unless stated otherwise.
Note 4: When written the "vs way", the home team is usually listed first.
^^^: Not including the ones that have already been resulted.
Note 1: "x x " and " x x x " = "+ + " and "+ + + " , respectively (as it is easier to put in the spread sheet that way).
Note 2: "x x" = 10%-12% estimated EV and "x x x" = 12%+ estimated EV.
Note 3: all odds are $1.90 (decimal) unless stated otherwise.
Note 4: When written the "vs way", the home team is usually listed first.
| Game | Bet / Option | Grade |
|---|---|---|
| Florida International Vs UTSA | Under 63 | x x |
| Illinois Vs Minnesota | Illinois +6.5 | x x |
| Akron vs Central Michigan | Under 59 | x x |
| Texas vs Iowa State | Over 48.5 (odds 1.87) | x x |
| Michigan vs Penn State | Over 50.5 | x x x |
| Illinois vs Minnesota | Over 39 | x x x |
| Eastern Michigan vs Northern Illinois | Northern Illinois +2.5 | x x |
| Western Michigan vs Ohio | Under 58.5 | x x |
| Tennessee vs Alabama | Over 65.5 | x x |
| UAB vs Charlotte | Under 63.5 | x x |
| Syracuse vs NC State | Over 42 | x x |
| Eastern Michigan vs Northern Illinois | Under 67.5 | x x x |
| Syracuse vs NC State | NC State +3.5 (odds 1.88) | x x x |
| Western Michigan vs Ohio | Western Michigan (ML odds 2.02) | x x x |
| Michigan State vs Wisconsin | Michigan State +7.5 | x x |
| Georgia Southern vs James Madison | Georgia Southern +11.5 | x x x |
| North Texas vs Louisiana Tech | Under 68 | x x |
| Florida Atlantic vs Rice | Rice +4 | x x x |
| Florida vs LSU | LSU +2.5 | x x |
| Southern Miss vs Arkansas State | Southern Miss -4.5 | x x |
| Colorado State vs Utah State | Colorado State +11 | x x |
| Florida vs LSU | Over 50.5 | x x |
| Fresno State vs San Jose State | Fresno State +8.5 | x x |
| Hawaii vs Nevada | Under 49.5 | x x |
October 15th, 2022 at 6:45:55 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
link to original post
Having a good day on the College Football, so far.
I also have two other bets^^^ not mentioned in the table (see my previous post)
^^^: Both of them were only " x bets", so that is why I didn't mention them earlier.
COLORADO STATE VS UTAH STATE: Under 45.5
FLORIDA STATE VS CLEMSON: Over 51
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 15, 2022
October 15th, 2022 at 11:12:30 PM
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Below are my College football results, and NFL bets.
Note 1(a): I changed my mind (from what I said in the above post) and decided I will post my " x bets" as well, since they all had a "+ estimated EV", IMO ( Estimated ratings / grades were correct at the time that I first posted the bets, see Note 1(b) for more details).
Note 1(b): Before kickoff, the ratings could be the same, better, or worse, for a multitude of reasons (line movements, weather forecast changes, and updated injury lists, are just some of the possible reasons for this).
Note 2:" x " = 8% -10% estimated EV, "x x" = 10%-12% estimated EV and "x x x" = 12%+ estimated EV.
Note 3: All odds are $1.90 (decimal) unless stated otherwise.
Note 4: When written the "vs way", the home team is usually listed first.
Note 5: For the West Virginia bets below, I split the bets with half on the ML, and half @ +3.5 (so it was the equivalent of 1 unit per option).
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NCAAF (Bets and Results):
Other College football Results ( for bets not mentioned before the games started, or at all until this post) :
I won ~ 4.8 units on the "Same game double / parlay" for CENTRAL FLORIDA VS TEMPLE game.
I won ~ 1.8 units in total on the COLORADO STATE VS UTAH STATE and FLORIDA STATE VS CLEMSON games (0.9 units each).
I lost ~7 units on the "Same game double / parlay" for GEORGIA VS VANDERBILT first half.
I lost ~7 units on the "Same game double / parlay" for GEORGIA VS VANDERBILT game.
Total won on "bets mentioned earlier in this thread" = 25.03 units
Total lost on "other college football results" = 7.4 units.
Total won on College Football (this week) = 17.63 units
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NFL (Bets and Results so far):
^^^: If this bet wins, then my average odds should be ~$1.80 (but the real return will either be $1.92 if the bet goes under , or $1.68 if the bet goes over 43.5).
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Other / Extra Info:
I am going on a holiday, so that is why I am posting the NFL table like this (to make it easier for me to input the results later, since I won't have my spreadsheet / computer with me).
Note 1(a): I changed my mind (from what I said in the above post) and decided I will post my " x bets" as well, since they all had a "+ estimated EV", IMO ( Estimated ratings / grades were correct at the time that I first posted the bets, see Note 1(b) for more details).
Note 1(b): Before kickoff, the ratings could be the same, better, or worse, for a multitude of reasons (line movements, weather forecast changes, and updated injury lists, are just some of the possible reasons for this).
Note 2:" x " = 8% -10% estimated EV, "x x" = 10%-12% estimated EV and "x x x" = 12%+ estimated EV.
Note 3: All odds are $1.90 (decimal) unless stated otherwise.
Note 4: When written the "vs way", the home team is usually listed first.
Note 5: For the West Virginia bets below, I split the bets with half on the ML, and half @ +3.5 (so it was the equivalent of 1 unit per option).
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NCAAF (Bets and Results):
| Game | Bet / Option | Grade | Game Result | Units Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -------- | --------- | (Units bet) | Win/Loss (W/L) | ( + / - ) |
| MARSHALL VS UL LAFAYETTE | UL Lafayette +10.5 | x x | W | 1.8 |
| CENTRAL FLORIDA VS TEMPLE | Temple +23.5 | x x | L | -2 |
| WEST VIRGINIA VS BAYLOR | West Virginia +3.5 (odds $1.88) | x x | W | 0.88 |
| WEST VIRGINIA VS BAYLOR | West Virginia ML (odds $2.45) | x x | W | 1.45 |
| Florida International Vs UTSA | Under 63 | x x | W | 1.8 |
| Illinois Vs Minnesota | Illinois +6.5 | x x | W | 1.8 |
| Akron vs Central Michigan | Under 59 | x x | W | 1.8 |
| Texas vs Iowa State | Over 48.5 (odds 1.87) | x x | L | -2 |
| Michigan vs Penn State | Over 50.5 | x x x | W | 2.7 |
| Illinois vs Minnesota | Over 39 | x x x | W | 2.7 |
| Eastern Michigan vs Northern Illinois | Northern Illinois +2.5 | x x | W | 1.8 |
| Western Michigan vs Ohio | Under 58.5 | x x | W | 1.8 |
| Tennessee vs Alabama | Over 65.5 | x x | W | 1.8 |
| UAB vs Charlotte | Under 63.5 | x x | W | 1.8 |
| Syracuse vs NC State | Over 42 | x x | L | -2 |
| Eastern Michigan vs Northern Illinois | Under 67.5 | x x x | W | 2.7 |
| Syracuse vs NC State | NC State +3.5 (odds xxxxx) | x x x | L | -3 |
| Western Michigan vs Ohio | Western Michigan (ML odds 2.02) | x x x | L | -3 |
| Michigan State vs Wisconsin | Michigan State +7.5 | x x | W | 1.8 |
| Georgia Southern vs James Madison | Georgia Southern +11.5 | x x x | W | 2.7 |
| North Texas vs Louisiana Tech | Under 68 | x x | L | -2 |
| Florida Atlantic vs Rice | Rice +4 | x x x | W | 2.7 |
| Florida vs LSU | LSU +2.5 | x x | W | 1.8 |
| Southern Miss vs Arkansas State | Southern Miss -4.5 | x x | L | -2 |
| Colorado State vs Utah State | Colorado State +11 | x x | W | 1.8 |
| Florida vs LSU | Over 50.5 | x x | W | 1.8 |
| Fresno State vs San Jose State | Fresno State +8.5 | x x | W | 1.8 |
| Hawaii vs Nevada | Under 49.5 | x x | W | 1.8 |
| NCAAF Total Result for the week (in Units) : | See "Other... Results" below for working etc | 17.63 |
Other College football Results ( for bets not mentioned before the games started, or at all until this post) :
I won ~ 4.8 units on the "Same game double / parlay" for CENTRAL FLORIDA VS TEMPLE game.
I won ~ 1.8 units in total on the COLORADO STATE VS UTAH STATE and FLORIDA STATE VS CLEMSON games (0.9 units each).
I lost ~7 units on the "Same game double / parlay" for GEORGIA VS VANDERBILT first half.
I lost ~7 units on the "Same game double / parlay" for GEORGIA VS VANDERBILT game.
Total won on "bets mentioned earlier in this thread" = 25.03 units
Total lost on "other college football results" = 7.4 units.
Total won on College Football (this week) = 17.63 units
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NFL (Bets and Results so far):
| Game | Bet / Option | Grade | Game Result | Units Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -------- | --------- | (Units bet) | Win/Loss (W/L) | ( + / - ) |
| Bets mentioned earlier in this thread | --------- | -------- | ------- | -------- |
| BEARS VS COMMANDERS | Chicago Bears ML (odds $1.98) | x | L | -1 |
| DOLPHINS VS VIKINGS | Miami Dolphins +3.5 | x x | ------- | -------- |
| STEELERS VS BUCCANEERS | Pittsburgh Steelers +8 | x x | ------- | -------- |
| New bets | --------- | -------- | ------- | -------- |
| FALCONS VS 49ERS | Atlanta Falcons +4.5 | x | ------- | -------- |
| PACKERS VS JETS | New York Jets +7.5 | x | ------- | -------- |
| SAINTS VS BENGALS | New Orleans Saints +3.5 (see ^^^ below, for details) | x x x | ------- | -------- |
| SEAHAWKS VS CARDINALS | Seattle Seahawks +2.5 | x | ------- | -------- |
| EAGLES VS COWBOYS | Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 | x | ------- | -------- |
| NFL Total Result for the week (in Units) : | -------- |
^^^: If this bet wins, then my average odds should be ~$1.80 (but the real return will either be $1.92 if the bet goes under , or $1.68 if the bet goes over 43.5).
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Other / Extra Info:
I am going on a holiday, so that is why I am posting the NFL table like this (to make it easier for me to input the results later, since I won't have my spreadsheet / computer with me).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 16, 2022
October 17th, 2022 at 6:24:34 AM
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Quite an impressive weekend!
You are in Australia, right? All winnings are tax free?
I did pretty good on all the player prop odds boosts offered on Bills last night.
Allen over 25 yards rushing/Davis over 50 yards receiving
Allen 3 TD passes/Bills ML.
Allen/Mahomes both over 250 yards passing. That one was at PLUS odds unbelievably.
Diggs/Kielce/Kupp over 250 total yards and one TD.
Lost on Kielce to score a TD
Lost on KC and over and Knox not having a 16 yd catch.
I had been limited on BetMGM to $25 on their ‘Lions boosts’ which are usually +EV, but just started having my limit raised to $50. The Bills ML / Allen 3 TD was yesterdays example. I think it was +250.
Best bet yesterday was Yanks -1.5/under 6.5/Cole over 7.5ks.
Cha-Ching!
You are in Australia, right? All winnings are tax free?
I did pretty good on all the player prop odds boosts offered on Bills last night.
Allen over 25 yards rushing/Davis over 50 yards receiving
Allen 3 TD passes/Bills ML.
Allen/Mahomes both over 250 yards passing. That one was at PLUS odds unbelievably.
Diggs/Kielce/Kupp over 250 total yards and one TD.
Lost on Kielce to score a TD
Lost on KC and over and Knox not having a 16 yd catch.
I had been limited on BetMGM to $25 on their ‘Lions boosts’ which are usually +EV, but just started having my limit raised to $50. The Bills ML / Allen 3 TD was yesterdays example. I think it was +250.
Best bet yesterday was Yanks -1.5/under 6.5/Cole over 7.5ks.
Cha-Ching!
October 17th, 2022 at 9:34:29 AM
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Final yapping today. I got Chargers -4 to hedge my Broncos +6.5. And due to an offer got +115 on the hedge.
Best offer yesterday. Got Nuggets over 49.5 wins. And Nuggets under 52.5 wins. Both at either even or plus odds!
Same for Timberwolves. Over 48.5, under 49.5. Win a little at anything other than 49. Win a lot on exactly 49.
Best offer yesterday. Got Nuggets over 49.5 wins. And Nuggets under 52.5 wins. Both at either even or plus odds!
Same for Timberwolves. Over 48.5, under 49.5. Win a little at anything other than 49. Win a lot on exactly 49.
October 17th, 2022 at 2:50:55 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuite an impressive weekend!
You are in Australia, right? All winnings are tax free?
I did pretty good on all the player prop odds boosts offered on Bills last night.
Allen over 25 yards rushing/Davis over 50 yards receiving
Allen 3 TD passes/Bills ML.
Allen/Mahomes both over 250 yards passing. That one was at PLUS odds unbelievably.
Diggs/Kielce/Kupp over 250 total yards and one TD.
Lost on Kielce to score a TD
Lost on KC and over and Knox not having a 16 yd catch.
I had been limited on BetMGM to $25 on their ‘Lions boosts’ which are usually +EV, but just started having my limit raised to $50. The Bills ML / Allen 3 TD was yesterdays example. I think it was +250.
Best bet yesterday was Yanks -1.5/under 6.5/Cole over 7.5ks.
Cha-Ching!
link to original post
Thanks.
Yes, I live in Australia, and winnings are tax free for myself and most people (Edit) most people here.
Great job on the Bills and MLB betting.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 17, 2022
October 17th, 2022 at 3:01:26 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjQuote: SOOPOOQuite an impressive weekend!
You are in Australia, right? All winnings are tax free?
I did pretty good on all the player prop odds boosts offered on Bills last night.
Allen over 25 yards rushing/Davis over 50 yards receiving
Allen 3 TD passes/Bills ML.
Allen/Mahomes both over 250 yards passing. That one was at PLUS odds unbelievably.
Diggs/Kielce/Kupp over 250 total yards and one TD.
Lost on Kielce to score a TD
Lost on KC and over and Knox not having a 16 yd catch.
I had been limited on BetMGM to $25 on their ‘Lions boosts’ which are usually +EV, but just started having my limit raised to $50. The Bills ML / Allen 3 TD was yesterdays example. I think it was +250.
Best bet yesterday was Yanks -1.5/under 6.5/Cole over 7.5ks.
Cha-Ching!
link to original post
Thanks.
Yes I live in Australia, and winnings are tax free for myself and most people.
Great job on the Bills and MLB betting.
link to original post
I do want to remind you I DO NOT do what you do! You find errors in the lines/odds and bet when you think you have a +EV. My +EV is almost exclusively based on offers from the sports books. I think I am going to start mirroring some of your picks.
How about this…. Post what you consider your 3 best NCAA picks for next week! And 3 best NFL picks. No pressure!
October 17th, 2022 at 4:25:04 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdjQuote: SOOPOO(snip)
link to original post
(snip)
link to original post
(snip) I think I am going to start mirroring some of your picks.
How about this…. Post what you consider your 3 best NCAA picks for next week! And 3 best NFL picks. No pressure!
link to original post
So far the only one that I "liked enough to try to bet" ATM, was "Denver +4.5" (I think it should be +3.00***).
***: I would have rated them about +2.75 if this game was being played later in the season or next year (with the same rosters for both teams) and I usually round this to the nearest 0.5 points, except through key numbers, where I sometimes use 0.25 points (key numbers being: 3 and 7).
From this I think Denver is at the "lower end" of the "x x bet rating" that I use @ +4.5 (~10% estimated EV^^^).
^^^: If you prefer that I post estimated chances from now on (rather than estimated EVs) then I think Denver has about a 58% chance @ +4.5.
Also, for the Denver game, the best I could get @ $1.90 was +4.0, so instead I had 4 units to win 1 unit on Denver @ +15 (alternative line / spread) about an hour ago.
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Update:
The only games that I like enough to bet so far for "next week" are:
MISSOURI VS VANDERBILT = Vanderbilt +14
SMU VS CINCINNATI = SMU +3
Note 1: I would rate both of these bets around "x ", so about 8% estimated EV so about 57% estimated chance (I am going to use chance figures, because I think you can get -110 with most books, whilst I can only get on average $1.90 or about -111 ).
Note 2(a): Reminder that I am on holidays, so I don't have access to my spreadsheets until Friday afternoon Australia time (so there is a good chance that I won't find as many games to bet on this week)
Note 2(b): Because of this, the bets I had above may be the only ones that I have this week, hence they will automatically become the "best NCAA picks for next week" if I can't find any others (even though they are only rated "x").
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Extra:
Even though I am spreading my "50/50" bets between 1 and 3 units (for my own reasons) I would recommend that anyone else spread the bets like this:
1 unit for "x bets", 1.5 units for "x x bets" and 2 units for "x x x bets".
Note 1(a): 1 unit is worth about 1.66% (1/60) of your "current total funds you are prepared to lose / invest for sports betting purposes".
Note 1(b): I would recommend using 1.66% (1/60 ), 2.5% and 3.33% (1/30) for the "new way I was recommending above" (for "x", "x x" and "x x x" respectively).
Note 2: Not recommended, but If you wanted to know what I am betting, then it is 1.25%, 2.5% and 3.75% (for "x" , "x x" and "x x x" respectively).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 17, 2022
October 17th, 2022 at 8:16:54 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOFinal yapping today. I got Chargers -4 to hedge my Broncos +6.5. And due to an offer got +115 on the hedge.
(snip).
link to original post
Come on OT. Hope you get a Chargers TD^^^ so they win by 6.
^^^: Probably more likely a Chargers FG (if they end up winning) especially since Denver have the ball first.
October 17th, 2022 at 11:07:31 PM
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I had Broncos +5. That was the line several days ago
It’s all about making that GTA
October 18th, 2022 at 12:00:37 AM
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College Football Week 7, and NFL Week 6 (Bets and Results):
^^^: Reminder, IMO that this "Alternative Spread" was roughly the equivalent in "Unit estimated EV" to having "two units on Denver +4.5 @ $1.90 (about -111) ".
***: See link here for more details.
| Game | Bet / Option | Grade | Game Result | Units Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -------- | --------- | (Units bet) | Win/Loss (W/L) | ( + / - ) |
| BEARS VS COMMANDERS | Chicago Bears ML (odds $1.98) | x | L | -1 |
| DOLPHINS VS VIKINGS | Miami Dolphins +3.5 | x x | L | -2 |
| STEELERS VS BUCCANEERS | Pittsburgh Steelers +8 | x x | W | 1.8 |
| FALCONS VS 49ERS | Atlanta Falcons +4.5 | x | W | 0.9 |
| PACKERS VS JETS | New York Jets +7.5 | x | W | 0.9 |
| SAINTS VS BENGALS | New Orleans Saints +3.5 | x x x | L | -3 |
| SEAHAWKS VS CARDINALS | Seattle Seahawks +2.5 | x | W | 0.9 |
| EAGLES VS COWBOYS | Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 | x | W | 0.9 |
| Los Angeles Chargers Vs Denver Broncos | Denver Broncos +15^^^ (odds 1.25) | x x x x | W | 1.0 |
| NFL Result for week 6: | 0.4 | |||
| College Result*** for week 7: | --------- | -------- | ------- | 17.63 |
| Combined Totals, to date : | 18.03 |
^^^: Reminder, IMO that this "Alternative Spread" was roughly the equivalent in "Unit estimated EV" to having "two units on Denver +4.5 @ $1.90 (about -111) ".
***: See link here for more details.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 18, 2022
October 18th, 2022 at 3:26:58 AM
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Quote: SOOPOO
(snipped a lot for relevance)
How about this…. Post what you consider your 3 best NCAA picks for next week! And 3 best NFL picks. No pressure!
link to original post
If I could get them at the odds / lines mentioned in the table below (or better) I would bet all of them (in other words, not just the "3 best picks^^^ ")
^^^: If forced to choose only 3 bets, I would bet them in order from top to bottom in the table below (these recommendations could change, as I may find better value bets later on in the week).
Note 1(a): For the "50/50" lines, "x", "x x" and "x x x", equal to estimated EVs of 8%-10%, 10%-12%, and 12%+ (respectively).
Note 1(b): Another way to look at it for the "50/50" lines is, "x" = ~57-58%, "x x" = ~58-59%, and "x x x" =59%+ (but generally less than 62%) as the "estimated win chances".
Note 2: All odds are $1.90 (decimal) unless stated otherwise.
Note 3: Some of these are repeats of bets mentioned earlier.
Note 4: Games/lines etc, were just copied and pasted from the 'book I bet with (to make it easier/quicker for me).
Note 5: When written the "vs way", the home team is usually listed first.
| Game | Bet / Option | Grade / Est. Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Penn State VS Minnesota | Minnesota +5 | x x |
| LSU VS Mississippi | LSU (ML, odds 1.80) | "to win x" (so 1.25 times "x units" was the bet). |
| Missouri VS Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt +14 | x |
| SMU VS Cincinnati | SMU +3 | x |
Important: Estimated chances could be subject to change, but I believe were correct at the time that I had the bet(s) (many possible factors between now and kickoff could change my opinions / estimates).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 18, 2022
October 18th, 2022 at 1:41:23 PM
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Same notes and warnings, as stated above, plus some new ones below
Note (i): As you can see, I thought the "Kent State vs Akron Under 68.5" had the highest estimated chance, so far this week.
Note (ii): Some of these are repeats of bets mentioned earlier, and / or may have had the "Est. Chance" upgraded (eg. from "x" to "x x").
Note (iii): I know that I included them in my last "result page", but from now on I am not counting my "same game doubles / parlays" , and anything not mentioned before kickoff , as part of any future results.
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Update:
Only one NFL bet so far, that is why I am not posting it in a table.
CINCINNATI BENGALS VS ATLANTA FALCONS
Cincinnati Bengals (-6) - Grade x
Comments: Falcons are 6-0 ATS, at the moment, so it is up to you if you want to follow me and bet against that "trend" (I think the line opened Falcons +10, earlier in the week?).
Also, likely but not certain for more NFL bets to come.
Note (i): As you can see, I thought the "Kent State vs Akron Under 68.5" had the highest estimated chance, so far this week.
Note (ii): Some of these are repeats of bets mentioned earlier, and / or may have had the "Est. Chance" upgraded (eg. from "x" to "x x").
Note (iii): I know that I included them in my last "result page", but from now on I am not counting my "same game doubles / parlays" , and anything not mentioned before kickoff , as part of any future results.
| Game | Bet / Option | Grade and / or Est. Chance |
|---|---|---|
| GEORGIA TECH VS VIRGINIA | Virginia (+3) | x x x |
| WESTERN KENTUCKY VS UAB | UAB (+2.5) | x x |
| SMU VS CINCINNATI | SMU (+3) | x x |
| CLEMSON VS SYRACUSE | Over 50 | x x |
| KENT STATE VS AKRON | Under 68.5 | x x x (~62%) |
| BALL STATE VS EASTERN MICHIGAN | Under 59.5 | x x x |
| BALL STATE VS EASTERN MICHIGAN | Eastern Michigan (+2.5) | x x |
| OHIO VS NORTHERN ILLINOIS | Ohio (+3) | x x x |
| LOUISIANA TECH VS RICE | Under 57.5 | x x |
| LSU VS MISSISSIPPI | LSU (ML, odds 1.80) | " to win x x" (so, "2.5 times x" on) |
| JAMES MADISON VS MARSHALL | Over 51 | x x |
| WAKE FOREST VS BOSTON COLLEGE | Under 61 | x x x |
| CHARLOTTE VS FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL | Under 62 (odds 1.95) | x x x |
| WISCONSIN VS PURDUE | Purdue (ML, odds 2.10) | x x |
| OKLAHOMA STATE VS TEXAS | Oklahoma State (+6 / odds 1.95) | x x |
| JAMES MADISON VS MARSHALL | Marshall (+13) | x x x |
| MISSOURI VS VANDERBILT | Under 53 | x x |
| STANFORD VS ARIZONA STATE | Under 55.5 | x x |
| STANFORD VS ARIZONA STATE | Stanford (-3) | x x x |
| COLORADO STATE VS HAWAII | Under 46.5 | x x x |
| TEXAS STATE VS SOUTHERN MISS | Southern Miss (-2.5) | x x x |
| ALABAMA VS MISSISSIPPI STATE | Mississippi State (+21) | x x |
| PENN STATE VS MINNESOTA | Minnesota (+5) | x x |
| PENN STATE VS MINNESOTA | Over 44.5 | x x |
| Missouri VS Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt (+14) | x |
-----
Update:
Only one NFL bet so far, that is why I am not posting it in a table.
CINCINNATI BENGALS VS ATLANTA FALCONS
Cincinnati Bengals (-6) - Grade x
Comments: Falcons are 6-0 ATS, at the moment, so it is up to you if you want to follow me and bet against that "trend" (I think the line opened Falcons +10, earlier in the week?).
Also, likely but not certain for more NFL bets to come.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 18, 2022
October 18th, 2022 at 6:58:48 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
Game Bet / Option Grade and / or Est. Chance GEORGIA TECH VS VIRGINIA Virginia (+3) x x x WESTERN KENTUCKY VS UAB UAB (+2.5) x x SMU VS CINCINNATI SMU (+3) x x CLEMSON VS SYRACUSE Over 50 x x KENT STATE VS AKRON Under 68.5 x x x (~62%) BALL STATE VS EASTERN MICHIGAN Under 59.5 x x x BALL STATE VS EASTERN MICHIGAN Eastern Michigan (+2.5) x x OHIO VS NORTHERN ILLINOIS Ohio (+3) x x x LOUISIANA TECH VS RICE Under 57.5 x x LSU VS MISSISSIPPI LSU (ML, odds 1.80) " to win x x" (so, "2.5 times x" on) JAMES MADISON VS MARSHALL Over 51 x x WAKE FOREST VS BOSTON COLLEGE Under 61 x x x CHARLOTTE VS FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL Under 62 (odds 1.95) x x x WISCONSIN VS PURDUE Purdue (ML, odds 2.10) x x OKLAHOMA STATE VS TEXAS Oklahoma State (+6 / odds 1.95) x x JAMES MADISON VS MARSHALL Marshall (+13) x x x MISSOURI VS VANDERBILT Under 53 x x STANFORD VS ARIZONA STATE Under 55.5 x x STANFORD VS ARIZONA STATE Stanford (-3) x x x COLORADO STATE VS HAWAII Under 46.5 x x x TEXAS STATE VS SOUTHERN MISS Southern Miss (-2.5) x x x ALABAMA VS MISSISSIPPI STATE Mississippi State (+21) x x PENN STATE VS MINNESOTA Minnesota (+5) x x PENN STATE VS MINNESOTA Over 44.5 x x Missouri VS Vanderbilt Vanderbilt (+14) x
(snip)
link to original post
Had a few "high EV, but extremely unlikely to win" multis / accumulators (see below):
1) I took 9*** "x x x" and LSU (1.80), and bet 1/10 of a unit to collect ~60 units (all legs must win, to be graded a winner).
***: Marshall went to +12.5, so I didn't include that one, but Stanford went to -2.5 (all else are the same lines, totals as in the table above).
2 a^^^) I combined all### my "x x x" and " x x" together, and bet 1/200 of a unit to collect ~570 units (all legs must win, to be graded a winner).
2 b^^^) I combined all### my "x x x" and " x x" together, and bet 1/200 of a unit to collect ~570 units (all legs must win, to be graded a winner).
^^^: The 'book wouldn't let me bet BALL STATE VS EASTERN MICHIGAN Under 59.5 and Eastern Michigan (+2.5) into one multi, so I had to split it into two multis.
###: Again, Marshall went to +12.5, so I didn't include that one, and the total for STANFORD VS ARIZONA STATE went to 54, so I didn't include that one either.
Note: For any game landing on the line or total that I got, then it will roughly "halve the value of my ticket" for each time it occurs.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 19, 2022
October 19th, 2022 at 3:49:32 AM
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Note 1(a): For the "50/50" lines, "x", "x x" and "x x x", equal to estimated EVs of 8%-10%, 10%-12%, and 12%+ (respectively).
Note 1(b): Another way to look at it for the "50/50" lines is, "x" = ~57-58%, "x x" = ~58-59%, and "x x x" =59%+ (but generally less than 62%) as the "estimated win chances".
Note 2: All odds are $1.90 (decimal) unless stated otherwise.
Note 3: Some of these may be repeats of bets mentioned earlier.
Note 4: Games/lines etc, were just copied and pasted from the 'book I bet with (to make it easier/quicker for me).
Note 5: When written the "vs way", the home team is usually listed first.
-----
Comments ("subjective stuff" to do with the bets above / and general comments on any NFL teams, leading into this week):
. It was hard to "push the accept bet button" on the Broncos, Bengals, and 49ers, that I had above (because I think they are "average or below average" teams, ATM).
. I kind of liked the way the Cowboys, Seahawks, Falcons, Jets, and Giants have been playing so far this season (But maybe I have been "sucked into that a bit" because of announcer comments/hype?).
. I wanted to find a way to bet against the Packers this week (I tried really hard to find value, but I think the line is not "good enough" to back either team).
. The only bet in the table above, "that I like a lot (subjectively)", is the Panthers' one (of all teams).
Note 1(b): Another way to look at it for the "50/50" lines is, "x" = ~57-58%, "x x" = ~58-59%, and "x x x" =59%+ (but generally less than 62%) as the "estimated win chances".
Note 2: All odds are $1.90 (decimal) unless stated otherwise.
Note 3: Some of these may be repeats of bets mentioned earlier.
Note 4: Games/lines etc, were just copied and pasted from the 'book I bet with (to make it easier/quicker for me).
Note 5: When written the "vs way", the home team is usually listed first.
| Game | Bet / Option | Grade and / or Est. Chance |
|---|---|---|
| BENGALS VS FALCONS | Cincinnati Bengals (-6) | x |
| Panthers Vs Buccaneers | Carolina Panthers (+11) | xx |
| Broncos Vs Jets | Broncos (ML, odds 1.80) | xx |
| 49ers Vs Chiefs | San Francisco 49ers (+3) | xx |
| Chargers vs Seahawks | Under 51 | xx |
-----
Comments ("subjective stuff" to do with the bets above / and general comments on any NFL teams, leading into this week):
. It was hard to "push the accept bet button" on the Broncos, Bengals, and 49ers, that I had above (because I think they are "average or below average" teams, ATM).
. I kind of liked the way the Cowboys, Seahawks, Falcons, Jets, and Giants have been playing so far this season (But maybe I have been "sucked into that a bit" because of announcer comments/hype?).
. I wanted to find a way to bet against the Packers this week (I tried really hard to find value, but I think the line is not "good enough" to back either team).
. The only bet in the table above, "that I like a lot (subjectively)", is the Panthers' one (of all teams).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 19, 2022
October 20th, 2022 at 10:09:18 AM
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I had my best day ever two days ago. Had on different sites Shwarber to HR and Harper to HR. 6 leg parlay on Golden State Warriors. Big parlay on Phil’s over Padres. I get a boost for each ‘leg’. No run first inning is a leg. No run second inning is a leg. No run third inning is a leg. Then add the under which is about as correlated as you can get with the first 3. Had Phil’s ML. And a sixth which I think was Harper to get a hit. Also of course correlated with Phil’s winning. It paid over 20-1.
Last night lost all but 1. But the loss was less than 10% of the win from the night before. If you hit 20-1 and your winning % is 8% then all is good!
I have bet on the 10 best college bets from ksdjd for this weekend. I got an extra half point a few times, and slightly better odds (-105 instead of -110) a few times by checking all 5 sites I participate with. Win or lose, I’m thanking ksdjd in advance!
Last night lost all but 1. But the loss was less than 10% of the win from the night before. If you hit 20-1 and your winning % is 8% then all is good!
I have bet on the 10 best college bets from ksdjd for this weekend. I got an extra half point a few times, and slightly better odds (-105 instead of -110) a few times by checking all 5 sites I participate with. Win or lose, I’m thanking ksdjd in advance!
October 20th, 2022 at 5:39:35 PM
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I liked (x x x) the Saints in this game , but I will not be counting my bet as part of the results (since the game has been going for a while).
October 22nd, 2022 at 5:43:23 PM
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NCAAF Results****
***: most of them at least , I will update later.
Note 1a): I will probably change "Weekly Win Rate (%)" Column to "College Win Rate" (or similar) later. Using the current format in the above table (for these types of figures).
Note 1b): The 64% "... win rate" assumes that all 3 of the remaining bets will be graded as "losing bets".
Note 1c): The figures in the "Result" cells, assume that all 3 of the remaining bets will be graded as "losing bets", as well.
Note 2: This is just a draft table (so I haven't checked closely yet, for errors). This will become the "final results table for this weeks' college football ", if there are no errors.
Note 3: I am going out, so I will complete later.
### : The "% chance" figures were just a "win chance estimate" based on one site's "live alternative spreads / totals", and were "correct" as at ~1740 (Pac Time).
----
Edit:
I will add my "multis / accumulator" bets later (they all lost).
***: most of them at least , I will update later.
| Game | Bet / Option | Grade | Game Result | Units Won / Lost | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -------- | --------- | -------- | Win/Loss (W/L) | ( + / - ) | ("Games Won" / "Total No. of Games Bet") |
| GEORGIA TECH VS VIRGINIA | Virginia (+3) | x x x | W | 2.7 | 1 |
| WESTERN KENTUCKY VS UAB | UAB (+2.5) | x x | L | -2 | 0 |
| SMU VS CINCINNATI | SMU (+3) | x x | W | 1.8 | 1 |
| CLEMSON VS SYRACUSE | Over 50 | x x | L | -2 | 0 |
| KENT STATE VS AKRON | Under 68.5 | x x x | W | 2.7 | 1 |
| BALL STATE VS EASTERN MICHIGAN | Under 59.5 | x x x | W | 2.7 | 1 |
| BALL STATE VS EASTERN MICHIGAN | Eastern Michigan (+2.5) | x x | W | 1.8 | 1 |
| OHIO VS NORTHERN ILLINOIS | Ohio (+3) | x x x | W | 2.7 | 1 |
| LOUISIANA TECH VS RICE | Under 57.5 | x x | L | -2 | 0 |
| LSU VS MISSISSIPPI | LSU (ML, odds 1.80) | "2.5 times x" on | W | 2 | 1 |
| JAMES MADISON VS MARSHALL | Over 51 | x x | L | -2 | 0 |
| WAKE FOREST VS BOSTON COLLEGE | Under 61 | x x x | W | 2.7 | 1 |
| CHARLOTTE VS FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL | Under 62 (odds 1.95) | x x x | W | 2.85 | 1 |
| WISCONSIN VS PURDUE | Purdue (ML, odds 2.10) | x x | L | -2 | 0 |
| OKLAHOMA STATE VS TEXAS | Oklahoma State (+6 / odds 1.95) | x x | W | 1.8 | 1 |
| JAMES MADISON VS MARSHALL | Marshall (+13) | x x x | W | 2.7 | 1 |
| MISSOURI VS VANDERBILT | Under 53 | x x | W | 1.8 | 1 |
| STANFORD VS ARIZONA STATE | Under 55.5 | x x | W | 1.8 | 1 |
| STANFORD VS ARIZONA STATE | Stanford (-3) | x x x | L | -3 | 0 |
| COLORADO STATE VS HAWAII | Under 46.5 | x x x | W | 2.7 | 1 |
| TEXAS STATE VS SOUTHERN MISS | Southern Miss (-2.5) | x x x | W | 2.7 | 1 |
| ALABAMA VS MISSISSIPPI STATE | Mississippi State (+21) | x x | L | -2 | 0 |
| PENN STATE VS MINNESOTA | Minnesota (+5) | x x | L | -2 | 0 |
| PENN STATE VS MINNESOTA | Over 44.5 | x x | W | 1.8 | 1 |
| MISSOURI VS VANDERBILT | Vanderbilt (+14) | x | W | 0.9 | 1 |
| -------- | --------- | NCAAF Result for this week (Units): | 21.15 | 68.00% ( 17 / 25 ) | |
| -------- | --------- | NCAAF Previous Total Result (Units): | 17.63 | 75.00% ( 21 / 28 ) | |
| -------- | --------- | NCAAF Current Total Result (Units): | 38.78 | 71.70% ( 38 / 53 ) |
Note 1a): I will probably change "Weekly Win Rate (%)" Column to "College Win Rate" (or similar) later. Using the current format in the above table (for these types of figures).
Note 1b): The 64% "... win rate" assumes that all 3 of the remaining bets will be graded as "losing bets".
Note 1c): The figures in the "Result" cells, assume that all 3 of the remaining bets will be graded as "losing bets", as well.
Note 2: This is just a draft table (so I haven't checked closely yet, for errors). This will become the "final results table for this weeks' college football ", if there are no errors.
Note 3: I am going out, so I will complete later.
### : The "% chance" figures were just a "win chance estimate" based on one site's "live alternative spreads / totals", and were "correct" as at ~1740 (Pac Time).
----
Edit:
I will add my "multis / accumulator" bets later (they all lost).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 22, 2022
October 23rd, 2022 at 3:17:07 PM
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The Bills line may go up now that the Packers lost to Washington.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
October 23rd, 2022 at 4:54:56 PM
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Quote: DRichThe Bills line may go up now that the Packers lost to Washington.
link to original post
I see Bills -10.5.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
October 24th, 2022 at 6:29:53 AM
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Quote: unJonQuote: DRichThe Bills line may go up now that the Packers lost to Washington.
link to original post
I see Bills -10.5.
link to original post
Pretty sure I posted that as my prediction in a different thread. Green Bay looks like a below average team. Bills are the best team. And will be at home. And over last two years have beaten average teams consistently by double digits. I think Aaron Rodgers might still be a top 5-10 QB, but the rest of his team is not particularly good.
I’ve been in Vegas until last night. So no sports betting last 5 days. I’m the only guy who goes to Vegas and bets less!
October 24th, 2022 at 4:12:17 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjNote 1(a): For the "50/50" lines, "x", "x x" and "x x x", equal to estimated EVs of 8%-10%, 10%-12%, and 12%+ (respectively).
Note 1(b): Another way to look at it for the "50/50" lines is, "x" = ~57-58%, "x x" = ~58-59%, and "x x x" =59%+ (but generally less than 62%) as the "estimated win chances".
Note 2: All odds are $1.90 (decimal) unless stated otherwise.
Note 3: Some of these may be repeats of bets mentioned earlier.
Note 4: Games/lines etc, were just copied and pasted from the 'book I bet with (to make it easier/quicker for me).
Note 5: When written the "vs way", the home team is usually listed first.
Game Bet / Option Grade and / or Est. Chance BENGALS VS FALCONS Cincinnati Bengals (-6) x (Bet won, quote edited by ksdjdj to save space) Panthers Vs Buccaneers Carolina Panthers (+11) xx (Bet won...) Broncos Vs Jets Broncos (ML, odds 1.80) xx (Bet lost...) 49ers Vs Chiefs San Francisco 49ers (+3) xx (Bet lost...) Chargers vs Seahawks Under 51 xx (Bet lost...)
(snip)
link to original post
I probably won't be publicly keeping track of the results for my bets anymore, because of the extra time/ work / and/or effort it takes to do so. (Even so, a big shout out to Miplet, and the "Miplet table maker", as it did make creating all the tables that I posted in this thread a lot easier).
----
Below are the bets that I had so far for tonight, and later this week:
"Grade x" bet(s):
New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears: Chicago Bears "20% of the bet" @ $4.20 (ML)
New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears: Chicago Bears "80% of the bet" @ $2.04 (+7.5)
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks @ $1.85 (-2.5)
Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills: Green Bay Packers @ $1.91 (+10.5*** )
***: If my guess on the public money ends up being true, then I probably should have waited before I had this bet (there is probably a greater than 50% chance that the line will move in a similar way to the "Bucs' / Panthers' game")
"Grade x x x" bet(s) :
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Colorado Buffaloes: Arizona State^^^ ~37% @ $1.91 (-13)
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Colorado Buffaloes: Arizona State^^^ 60% @ $1.90 (-13)
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Colorado Buffaloes: Arizona State^^^ ~3% @ $1.88 (-12.5)
^^^: I tried to get all of my money on at -12.5, but the 'book cut me to ~3% of the total bet that I asked for (I still think it is a "x x x bet" at -13, though).
---
Other stuff:
I am currently behind on the bets with the NFL that I had posted in this thread, but I did bet $550 on the Chiefs, when they went to -1 in the 49ers' game.
I also had an extra $500 on the Panthers' $2.08 (+11.5) in the Bucs' game, and since I had to sign up with new books, I managed to collect an extra ~$1,500 on the Panthers' ML (because of bonus bets###).
###: Whether I "liked / thought they were value (or not)", I probably would have backed a team with similar ML odds to the Panthers' in that game (to "maximize bonus bet EV" ) because you don't normally get the stake returned with "bonus bet" promos.
---
Edit:
I also had $375 to win $100 on the Patriots (ML) because if they are up by 5 points or more @ half time, then the bet is graded as a winner.
Note: The maximum win for this promo is $100 (if the maximum stake was $100 instead, then I would have bet the Bears).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 24, 2022
October 24th, 2022 at 4:57:42 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjNCAAF Results
(snip)
I will add my "multis / accumulator" bets later (they all lost).
link to original post
Below is my total result in this thread for NCAAF (including Multis):
+38.78 units, from single bets
-0.11 units, from Multis
So, +38.67 units is the total result.
October 24th, 2022 at 5:03:22 PM
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Ksdjdj, thank you for your posts but I do have to ask you not to post your wins here unless you memorialized the bets ahead of time. Nothing personal, but on the web forums people will spew on about all their wins after the fact without documentation.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
October 24th, 2022 at 5:21:54 PM
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Quote: DRichKsdjdj, thank you for your posts but I do have to ask you not to post your wins here unless you memorialized the bets ahead of time. Nothing personal, but on the web forums people will spew on about all their wins after the fact without documentation.
link to original post
Ksdjd—- Feel free to ignore DRich. Him asking you not to make a post is as irrelevant as can be.
I often post many of my fun wins. In no way are they meant to be proof of anything, nor even to imply I won for that week or day or month.
As long as ksdjd is not trying to sell anything he can post any of his bets he wants, in any way he wants.
Now, DRich, feel free to ignore his posts if you don’t like the timing of his posts. That’s your right, too!!!
October 24th, 2022 at 5:37:41 PM
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Quote: DRichKsdjdj, thank you for your posts but I do have to ask you not to post your wins here unless you memorialized the bets ahead of time. Nothing personal, but on the web forums people will spew on about all their wins after the fact without documentation.
link to original post
He did post all the bets beforehand. We reading the same thread??
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
October 24th, 2022 at 5:52:08 PM
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Quote: unJonQuote: DRichKsdjdj, thank you for your posts but I do have to ask you not to post your wins here unless you memorialized the bets ahead of time. Nothing personal, but on the web forums people will spew on about all their wins after the fact without documentation.
link to original post
He did post all the bets beforehand. We reading the same thread??
link to original post
DRich is talking about the stuff like this:
Quote: ksdjdj
(snip)
Other College football Results ( for bets not mentioned before the games started, or at all until this post) :
I won ~ 4.8 units on the "Same game double / parlay" for CENTRAL FLORIDA VS TEMPLE game.
I won ~ 1.8 units in total on the COLORADO STATE VS UTAH STATE and FLORIDA STATE VS CLEMSON games (0.9 units each).
I lost ~7 units on the "Same game double / parlay" for GEORGIA VS VANDERBILT first half.
I lost ~7 units on the "Same game double / parlay" for GEORGIA VS VANDERBILT game.
Total won on "bets mentioned earlier in this thread" = 25.03 units
Total lost on "other college football results" = 7.4 units.
Total won on College Football (this week) = 17.63 units
(snip)
link to original post
and
Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
link to original post
(snip)
Other stuff:
I am currently behind on the bets with the NFL that I had posted in this thread, but I did bet $550 on the Chiefs, when they went to -1 in the 49ers' game.
I also had an extra $500 on the Panthers' $2.08 (+11.5) in the Bucs' game, and since I had to sign up with new books, I managed to collect an extra ~$1,500 on the Panthers' ML (because of bonus bets###).
(snip)
link to original post
Although, I am actually "devaluing my graded / official results" ATM, because (I am pretty sure?) I have only added the "overall losing day(s)"/ "past post" results to my "official result tables", so far (see link in the first "ksdjdj quote" in this post, for more details).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 24, 2022
October 25th, 2022 at 4:06:39 AM
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I am sorry if my post came across wrong. I like what ksdjdj has been posting but he made mention that he would be stopping doing it. I just have no respect for people that only post outcomes and not the bets. I get it, others will disagree but since I have respected what Ksdjdj has been doing I would hate to have to move him to "my" disrespect status.
Obviously, he can continue to post anything he wants I just hope he doesn't post results without picks.
We have all seen posts like "I knew the Bears would beat the Pats by exactly 19 points while being an 8 point underdog and I won a fortune betting it"
I have to say that I have been enjoying seeing his bets especially the college football picks as that is where my passion is. I hope he continues posting his picks and not just results.
We had a guy on this site last year or the year before that bragged about all his winners without posting them. Then he started posting some picks and did poorly and disappeared. I believe he had some sort of website or tout service where he was trying to sell picks.
Obviously, he can continue to post anything he wants I just hope he doesn't post results without picks.
We have all seen posts like "I knew the Bears would beat the Pats by exactly 19 points while being an 8 point underdog and I won a fortune betting it"
I have to say that I have been enjoying seeing his bets especially the college football picks as that is where my passion is. I hope he continues posting his picks and not just results.
We had a guy on this site last year or the year before that bragged about all his winners without posting them. Then he started posting some picks and did poorly and disappeared. I believe he had some sort of website or tout service where he was trying to sell picks.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
October 25th, 2022 at 4:36:03 AM
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Fournier under 12.5
Brunson over 19.5
Wagner under 14.5
Knicks -7.5
Under 219.5
With profit boost $20 paid $440!
Easy money was FanDuel offer of Morant over 24.5 points parlayed with Fields over 24.5 yards rushing! Both hit the marks early!
A few more that included Fields throwing and running for a TD. Those were winners before halftime too!
(Of course I had a few losers as well, but unless they were bad beats, who wants to hear about them!?)
Brunson over 19.5
Wagner under 14.5
Knicks -7.5
Under 219.5
With profit boost $20 paid $440!
Easy money was FanDuel offer of Morant over 24.5 points parlayed with Fields over 24.5 yards rushing! Both hit the marks early!
A few more that included Fields throwing and running for a TD. Those were winners before halftime too!
(Of course I had a few losers as well, but unless they were bad beats, who wants to hear about them!?)
October 25th, 2022 at 2:39:07 PM
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Tonight Mavericks are 5.5 point favorites over a weak Pelicans team. Seemed about right. Until I learned Pelicans without their two stars, Ingram and Williamson. I’ll be taking the Mavs. As per usual, that means a 48% or so chance Mavs cover.
BetMGM ‘Lion Boost’ seems markedly + EV tonight. Warriors money line and over 225.5 is +400. The ‘regular’ over under is 226.5. And the Warriors are tiny underdogs. Looks like a fair payout is around +280.
BetMGM ‘Lion Boost’ seems markedly + EV tonight. Warriors money line and over 225.5 is +400. The ‘regular’ over under is 226.5. And the Warriors are tiny underdogs. Looks like a fair payout is around +280.
October 25th, 2022 at 2:51:28 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOTonight Mavericks are 5.5 point favorites over a weak Pelicans team. Seemed about right. Until I learned Pelicans without their two stars, Ingram and Williamson. I’ll be taking the Mavs. As per usual, that means a 48% or so chance Mavs cover.
BetMGM ‘Lion Boost’ seems markedly + EV tonight. Warriors money line and over 225.5 is +400. The ‘regular’ over under is 226.5. And the Warriors are tiny underdogs. Looks like a fair payout is around +280.
link to original post
Soopoo, do you do any in game bettering or half time betting? Half time betting was very profitable for many in NBA games many tears ago. I see in game betting as a great opportunity.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
October 25th, 2022 at 3:19:19 PM
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Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOTonight Mavericks are 5.5 point favorites over a weak Pelicans team. Seemed about right. Until I learned Pelicans without their two stars, Ingram and Williamson. I’ll be taking the Mavs. As per usual, that means a 48% or so chance Mavs cover.
BetMGM ‘Lion Boost’ seems markedly + EV tonight. Warriors money line and over 225.5 is +400. The ‘regular’ over under is 226.5. And the Warriors are tiny underdogs. Looks like a fair payout is around +280.
link to original post
Soopoo, do you do any in game bettering or half time betting? Half time betting was very profitable for many in NBA games many tears ago. I see in game betting as a great opportunity.
link to original post
I do. Most likely -EV for me. As an example, if I have a $10 parlay that 5 legs hit already, I’ll make a -EV hedge bet in game sometimes. Like if I have everything hitting and I need an over 40, but the line is in game 44, I’ll hedge with an under 44 bet, and hope to hit both! If the parlay was going to pay $200, I’ll probably bet $40 or so on the hedge.
October 26th, 2022 at 5:06:01 AM
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Just got home from my job, and didn't have time to look through all the games this week (it takes 6-12 hours to do this, when I do it normally):
I had other picks, but below are the "best ones that I could find this week" (all of them are "x x x" grade bets).
Note: These will likely be the only ones that go in my "official results tables" in this thread (unless there were any others that I have publicly posted earlier, for this week).
NCAAF:
Nebraska Cornhuskers @ $1.89 (+7.5)
Texas A&M Aggies @ $2.05 (+1.5) and also @ $1.94 (+2.5) - (I had most of my bets on at the "+1.5" line).
Arizona State @ $1.90 (-13) - (this was the "average line that I took").
NFL:
Detroit Lions @ $1.82 (+3.5) - ( "4/9 of my total bet" on at this price/spread)
Detroit Lions @ $1.45 (+7.5) - ( "5/9 of my total bet" on at this price/spread)
Cardinals @ (+3.5) ^^^
^^^: Not on yet, because I think there is a good chance for the line to shift out (in other words I think the Cards' may get to +4.0 or more?).
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Other Info:
I had a lot less bets this week, mainly because I didn't have time to do any "Totals" (O/U) betting.
I had other picks, but below are the "best ones that I could find this week" (all of them are "x x x" grade bets).
Note: These will likely be the only ones that go in my "official results tables" in this thread (unless there were any others that I have publicly posted earlier, for this week).
NCAAF:
Nebraska Cornhuskers @ $1.89 (+7.5)
Texas A&M Aggies @ $2.05 (+1.5) and also @ $1.94 (+2.5) - (I had most of my bets on at the "+1.5" line).
Arizona State @ $1.90 (-13) - (this was the "average line that I took").
NFL:
Detroit Lions @ $1.82 (+3.5) - ( "4/9 of my total bet" on at this price/spread)
Detroit Lions @ $1.45 (+7.5) - ( "5/9 of my total bet" on at this price/spread)
Cardinals @ (+3.5) ^^^
^^^: Not on yet, because I think there is a good chance for the line to shift out (in other words I think the Cards' may get to +4.0 or more?).
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Other Info:
I had a lot less bets this week, mainly because I didn't have time to do any "Totals" (O/U) betting.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 26, 2022
October 26th, 2022 at 7:58:00 AM
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I got Lions at +3.5 and -105 which is better than your line, right?
Lost on GSW last night. And Mavs. But hit on great prop offer. Doncic /Cunningham to combine for 55. Doncic two layups last minute to squeak by! Also had 4 legger which included OKC . They were playing Clippers who were missing George AND Leonard! And Morris. The odds made it seem like the books didn’t have that info???? I got OKC + 9.5! They won pretty easily.
Lost on GSW last night. And Mavs. But hit on great prop offer. Doncic /Cunningham to combine for 55. Doncic two layups last minute to squeak by! Also had 4 legger which included OKC . They were playing Clippers who were missing George AND Leonard! And Morris. The odds made it seem like the books didn’t have that info???? I got OKC + 9.5! They won pretty easily.
October 26th, 2022 at 2:59:42 PM
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From bets made in the previous week on the NFL, I was given a $500 bonus bet with one, and a $100 bonus with another 'book,
So, I had these bets with the "bonus money " (for this weeks' games):
Temple Owls $500 bonus to collect $2125 (ML)
Packers $100 bonus to collect $375 (ML)
So, I had these bets with the "bonus money " (for this weeks' games):
Temple Owls $500 bonus to collect $2125 (ML)
Packers $100 bonus to collect $375 (ML)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 26, 2022
October 26th, 2022 at 3:00:29 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOI got Lions at +3.5 and -105 which is better than your line, right? (snip)
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Way better, as you will get “~16% better profit" on your stake compared to me (if the bet wins).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 26, 2022
October 26th, 2022 at 5:23:10 PM
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Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOTonight Mavericks are 5.5 point favorites over a weak Pelicans team. Seemed about right. Until I learned Pelicans without their two stars, Ingram and Williamson. I’ll be taking the Mavs. As per usual, that means a 48% or so chance Mavs cover.
BetMGM ‘Lion Boost’ seems markedly + EV tonight. Warriors money line and over 225.5 is +400. The ‘regular’ over under is 226.5. And the Warriors are tiny underdogs. Looks like a fair payout is around +280.
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Soopoo, do you do any in game bettering or half time betting? Half time betting was very profitable for many in NBA games many tears ago. I see in game betting as a great opportunity.
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I know this was directed to, and answered by Soopoo already.
But, I have noticed just looking at two different 'books that you quite often can get an edge by backing both teams (see example below).
Example: One live market had a game where the odds were -400 with one 'book (for "team A") and +450 with the other 'book (for "team B") at the same time (and was available for more than a minute, before they both adjusted).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 26, 2022
October 26th, 2022 at 10:13:43 PM
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This is the last week that a 'book that I am betting with is offering a "lead by 5 (or more) at half time, and get paid up to $100 in winnings" promo.
"My Bets" : These are the "current 'dogs" that I have taken: Rams +100, Jets +112, and Panthers +178 - (because I didn't like the odds on offer compared to the "market average"). The rest are on the "current favorites" (see "note 2(a)" below, for my main "reasoning").
Note 1: I am only "playing for the promotion" with these bets (in other words, they are likely "-EV bets", before taking into account the "value of the promotion").
Note 2(a): If the odds on offer were closer to "market average" for the favorite in every game, then I would have backed the favorite because I suspect the "$ EV" for this promotion is better overall for favorites (this is just an "educated stab in the dark", since I haven't looked at any past results, ATM).
Note 2(b): As stated in another post to do with this type of offer, if the promotion was something like "$100 maximum stake" (rather than "$100 maximum win") then I would have probably had most of my bets on the 'dog (to maximize "% EV " ).
"My Bets" : These are the "current 'dogs" that I have taken: Rams +100, Jets +112, and Panthers +178 - (because I didn't like the odds on offer compared to the "market average"). The rest are on the "current favorites" (see "note 2(a)" below, for my main "reasoning").
Note 1: I am only "playing for the promotion" with these bets (in other words, they are likely "-EV bets", before taking into account the "value of the promotion").
Note 2(a): If the odds on offer were closer to "market average" for the favorite in every game, then I would have backed the favorite because I suspect the "$ EV" for this promotion is better overall for favorites (this is just an "educated stab in the dark", since I haven't looked at any past results, ATM).
Note 2(b): As stated in another post to do with this type of offer, if the promotion was something like "$100 maximum stake" (rather than "$100 maximum win") then I would have probably had most of my bets on the 'dog (to maximize "% EV " ).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 26, 2022
October 28th, 2022 at 2:09:24 PM
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DK now has the ‘if the Knicks are up by 10 at any point you win’ offer. Before I saw the offer I was going to bet on the Bucks -6. Now instead I have the Knicks on the money line.
Mission went through the EV of this offer for the NFL. I’m wondering if he has a spare 29 hours or so to analyze it for the NBA?
Mission went through the EV of this offer for the NFL. I’m wondering if he has a spare 29 hours or so to analyze it for the NBA?
October 28th, 2022 at 2:14:08 PM
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Quote: SOOPOODK now has the ‘if the Knicks are up by 10 at any point you win’ offer. Before I saw the offer I was going to bet on the Bucks -6. Now instead I have the Knicks on the money line.
Mission went through the EV of this offer for the NFL. I’m wondering if he has a spare 29 hours or so to analyze it for the NBA?
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It would probably take more than that. In addition to the fact that there are many more NBA games, (although, that perhaps means I'd only have to analyze one season) one aspect that made the NFL analysis faster is the fact that scoring is done in chunks, so for at least half of the games, I could just glance at the box score and determine that the losing team was ahead by ten, at some point. I could also quickly determine if the losing team could not possibly have led by ten, at a glance.
Because there are such greater point totals in the NBA, I imagine that the percentage of games where I could just glance at a box score and say either, "It must have happened," or, "It could not have happened," is much lower.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
October 31st, 2022 at 3:12:54 AM
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I got about 4k in bonus bets recently (some were "birthday bonuses" ).
Anyway, most^^^ of them lost so far, but I did have a collect of $1700 on " DeAndre Hopkins, first TD scorer for the Cards' ".
^^^: I have one bonus bet still pending on "the 4 in the Melbourne Cup" and a smaller one on "the 24 in the same race".
Anyway, most^^^ of them lost so far, but I did have a collect of $1700 on " DeAndre Hopkins, first TD scorer for the Cards' ".
^^^: I have one bonus bet still pending on "the 4 in the Melbourne Cup" and a smaller one on "the 24 in the same race".
October 31st, 2022 at 4:15:08 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjI got about 4k in bonus bets recently (some were "birthday bonuses" ).
Anyway, most^^^ of them lost so far, but I did have a collect of $1700 on " DeAndre Hopkins, first TD scorer for the Cards' ".
^^^: I have one bonus bet still pending on "the 4 in the Melbourne Cup" and a smaller one on "the 24 in the same race".
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You probably bet more than I do…. I believe I got a total of $30 in birthday bonuses. Might have been $40….
I was losing bet after bet($5,10, or $25) but hit $25 Dawson Knox first TD at 13-1 boosted. And lots of Bills ML plus some Packers +10.5. So after dismal start ended up up for the day.
October 31st, 2022 at 7:07:51 AM
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I am excited to see Tuesday night college football is back on ESPN. We now have football on TV seven days a week. Go Golden Flashes and Bobcats.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
November 2nd, 2022 at 3:27:21 PM
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Just got a $510 bonus from one 'book (they gave it to me for the Ohio bet that won).
I split the bonus in 3 ($170 each) and had the following bets (for this weeks' games):
New York Jets @ 5.50
Houston Texans @ 6.25
New Mexico Lobos @ 6.25
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Extra Stuff:
These types of bonuses of "semi-random bonuses on winning bets" are great (with other 'books, I used to only receive bonuses on certain losing bets).
Also, if I knew I was going to get a bonus ~$500 "every two or three times" I back a winner on average, then I would nearly always bet with that one 'book.
I split the bonus in 3 ($170 each) and had the following bets (for this weeks' games):
New York Jets @ 5.50
Houston Texans @ 6.25
New Mexico Lobos @ 6.25
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Extra Stuff:
These types of bonuses of "semi-random bonuses on winning bets" are great (with other 'books, I used to only receive bonuses on certain losing bets).
Also, if I knew I was going to get a bonus ~$500 "every two or three times" I back a winner on average, then I would nearly always bet with that one 'book.
November 2nd, 2022 at 5:07:55 PM
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Just won on the Knicks ML. They were up 10 in first quarter. I like this promo…..
November 4th, 2022 at 2:55:44 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOJust won on the Knicks ML. They were up 10 in first quarter. I like this promo…..
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Same promo again. Let’s go Knicks.
Warriors are going to sit some minor players tonight…
Steff Curry
Kay Thompson
Draymond Green
Anthony Wiggins
Not sure what opening line was but I think would have been around pick em at Pelicans. Now Warriors get 10.5 points! If you had the info before the public that could have been worth whatever your and your friends betting limits are…!
November 5th, 2022 at 10:27:48 AM
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I forgot about the birthday bonus ... didn't get one this year. Might be a signal I am being put into a certain status ... similar to the "do not mail" thing a casino can do ... there's been less of that sort of thing generally
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
November 6th, 2022 at 2:14:28 PM
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I broke another ‘barrier’ in winnings yesterday. Astros overcame my abysmal college picks. Today….. I’m staring at a Panthers +7.5/ Bills ML/ Packers ML parlay…..well at least there was no suspense.
I need Titans + 11 on one and 11.5 on another to crawl back close to even. Henry scoring the first TD would also help.
I’m not confident.
Looks like I’ll make Diamond on Caesar’s by early December.
I need Titans + 11 on one and 11.5 on another to crawl back close to even. Henry scoring the first TD would also help.
I’m not confident.
Looks like I’ll make Diamond on Caesar’s by early December.
