Sports betting chatter
Quote: lilredrooster.
going to add on NCAA pick - Maryland + 17.5 over Ohio State - starts in less than one hour
Maryland has crushed everybody they've played so far this year -
will they fold now that they're playing a big time team or will they roll_____________________________________let's see
will be fun to watch - I went to MD back in the day -
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I bet that Alabama sure wishes they had Tagvailoa back from Maryland. Alabama is struggling at QB.
Quote: unJonI am in no way a sharp. But for reasons I put in the following two yesterday:
LSU/Missouri over 64
Boise St -9.5
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This Boise St team is nothing like their teams of years past. But San Jose is terrible.
Quote: DRichQuote: unJonI am in no way a sharp. But for reasons I put in the following two yesterday:
LSU/Missouri over 64
Boise St -9.5
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This Boise St team is nothing like their teams of years past. But San Jose is terrible.
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Exactly.
Quote: DRichI have a lean towards::
Rutgers + 13
Va tech + 23.5
Iowa -2.5
Kansas +2
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woohoo____________!!!!!________________you went 4-0___________very nice________I sucked - went 2-5 - need to to better or stop posting
nice call by UnJon on the LSU game over 64 - they actually scored 88 points
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: DRichI have a lean towards::
Rutgers + 13
Va tech + 23.5
Iowa -2.5
Kansas +2
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woohoo____________!!!!!________________you went 4-0___________very nice________I sucked - went 2-5 - need to to better or stop posting
Thank you, it is always nice to get lucky.
Quote: DRichQuote: lilredroosterQuote: DRichI have a lean towards::
Rutgers + 13
Va tech + 23.5
Iowa -2.5
Kansas +2
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woohoo____________!!!!!________________you went 4-0___________very nice________I sucked - went 2-5 - need to to better or stop posting
Thank you, it is always nice to get lucky.
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the previous week you won with Utah + 4 over Oregon
that makes you 5-0 on NCAA picks - you're on fire
maybe it's not luck
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My Caesars boosted parlay 5 legs hit…. with 5th leg being LSU over Mizzou. They were down 15….. Won late….!
Lots more…..
Quote: unJonQuote: SOOPOO
Have Seahawks half/ML in parlays …. last leg is Jags +5.5 over Bills…. Jags being over in London allows (I think?) them to be used to the time change better than the Bills who aren’t even there yet…..
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I had this same thought over the weekend. Then I saw the +5.5 line and thought the oddsmakers have incorporated that effect into the line already!
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Good bet, SOOPOO. Sorry I talked myself out of it when the line came in at 5.5
I did go 11 ans 0 on my own picks.
Quote: lilredrooster
the previous week you won with Utah + 4 over Oregon
that makes you 5-0 on NCAA picks - you're on fire
maybe it's not luck
It is just luck, I never expect to hit more than 80%.
I probably get about one pick correct for every 10 games I watch. Sadly, I did not get to watch or record the UCLA vs Washington St game this week as it is on the Pac-12 network and I don't get that.
Hit for +$125.
I have wifey predict exact margin of victory in 49ers game. She said 17, so we have 49ers to win by 12-18 at + 650. And 49ers to win both halves at +255. Using bonus bets. Both are pretty live right now.
Quote: lilredrooster.
I don't really believe that these NFL picks have value but so for they're 11- 4 for the year so far - so I could be wrong
Dolphins - 12.5_________75%
Bills - 5.5__________71%
49ers -3.5___________________68%
Lions - 9.5_______________________________65%
https://www.wunderdog.com/nfl/public-consensus
yesterday's picks - these picks - the public consensus of 65% are greater are really rolling - 3 -1 for week 5
so far the picks are all faves - they're now 14-5 - I will keep posting
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In soccer I didn't realize how far apart the games are! I went to look at EPL games today and there aren't any till 10-21, sheesh. They just played this weekend and I scored on some ties. No games in the Spanish, German, or Italian leagues till about the same time. Wow, these guys have to rest!
Yeah, if you look hard enough you can find a game in Argentina or something, I don't know if any have a reputation for getting fixed.
One thing I like with soccer is that I know nothing really about the teams and can just find odds I like. In MLB and NFL I often see an underdog bet fitting the parameters I like, but I'll just recoil at the idea of placing that bet LOL!
PS, as far as my "tip" here, bear in mind when you bet +200 and more, you still expect to lose the bet most of the time with the chances of a losing streak very real. You have been warned!
Quote: odiousgambitI've done well betting on ties in soccer to use my bonus bets, esp with EPL league. If the game is going to be a good game, with the underdog having a good chance, a tie is a likely outcome to that game. The tie bet will be somewhere around +240 to +300 or so. Clearly there's risk, I tend to like +150 to +200 bets better, but I'll sometimes bet the tie in soccer. I haven't really analyzed, but have liked results. This could be that the "squares" don't like to bet the tie?
In soccer I didn't realize how far apart the games are! I went to look at EPL games today and there aren't any till 10-21, sheesh. They just played this weekend and I scored on some ties. No games in the Spanish, German, or Italian leagues till about the same time. Wow, these guys have to rest!
Yeah, if you look hard enough you can find a game in Argentina or something, I don't know if any have a reputation for getting fixed.
One thing I like with soccer is that I know nothing really about the teams and can just find odds I like. In MLB and NFL I often see an underdog bet fitting the parameters I like, but I'll just recoil at the idea of placing that bet LOL!
PS, as far as my "tip" here, bear in mind when you bet +200 and more, you still expect to lose the bet most of the time with the chances of a losing streak very real. You have been warned!
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Me too! I tend to parlay ‘tie’ with under 2.5 total. So 0-0 or 1-1. I have this bet on Liverpool/Everton. Liverpool is pretty big fave. I added 0-0 halftime, and an under corner bet to get it to 25-1.
There are some national ‘qualifier’ games going on so the leagues are off as their top players participate in those games for their countries.
I have 49ers to win SB at 10-1. I’m liking that bet!
I’ve been pretty bad on my baseball guesses recently…. Today is another day.
Same thing for many of their promotions. Now they will give a profit boost for a bet, not a free bet. The 50% boosts are easy to exploit; the 25% ones a bit harder.
I have big parlay that needs Packers +2.5 to hit.
I have another smaller one that has Raiders moneyline.
Celebration here if Raiders win by 1 or 2! Tie is also good for me!
Bills D ravaged by injuries. I see Giants are 14 point dogs to Bills. If I can find 14.5 at -110 I’ll be loading up on the Giants. Even if Daniel Jones can’t play.
Quote: unJonI am in no way a sharp.
I'm not so sure about that
I saw in the Picks thread that you're currently 21-8___________that's fantastic
didn't wanna post in that thread since I'm not participating - wouldn't seem right
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: unJonI am in no way a sharp.
I'm not so sure about that
I saw in the Picks thread that you're currently 21-8___________that's fantastic
didn't wanna post in that thread since I'm not participating - wouldn't seem right
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It’s luck.
gonna try something new - for me anyway - with NCAA picks - gonna go with the o/u
tonight Coastal Carolina/Appalachia State over 61
the App state total for their last game was 88_________CCU was 66_________CCU scored 66 by themselves in one game
famous last words________?
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Quote: unJonQuote: lilredroosterQuote: unJonI am in no way a sharp.
I'm not so sure about that
I saw in the Picks thread that you're currently 21-8___________that's fantastic
didn't wanna post in that thread since I'm not participating - wouldn't seem right
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It’s luck.
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It's a method.
the public consensus picks of 65% or greater are so far 14-5 this season
tonight the Chiefs are a 69% consensus public pick at -10.5 over the Broncos
that's a lot of points to have to give up - but the Dolphins beat the Broncs by 50
https://www.wunderdog.com/nfl/public-consensus
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Penn St - 41.5
Quote: lilredrooster.
the public consensus picks of 65% or greater are so far 14-5 this season
tonight the Chiefs are a 69% consensus public pick at -10.5 over the Broncos
that's a lot of points to have to give up - but the Dolphins beat the Broncs by 50
https://www.wunderdog.com/nfl/public-consensus
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These remain all NFL favs and tend to be the bigger ones. That’s always what the public likes. I think it’s chance that big favs are covering a lot this year so far.
That said, I don’t hate KC -10.5
Quote: unJonQuote: lilredrooster.
the public consensus picks of 65% or greater are so far 14-5 this season
tonight the Chiefs are a 69% consensus public pick at -10.5 over the Broncos
that's a lot of points to have to give up - but the Dolphins beat the Broncs by 50
https://www.wunderdog.com/nfl/public-consensus
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These remain all NFL favs and tend to be the bigger ones. That’s always what the public likes. I think it’s chance that big favs are covering a lot this year so far.
That said, I don’t hate KC -10.5
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I think you're prolly correct - it is fun to track them - for me anyway
as of now, there are 3 smaller faves the public loves - Bengals - 68%, Raiders - 72%, Lions - 72% - all giving up just 3 points -
the 49ers who just crushed the Boys have won their 5 games by an average of 19.8 points - the lowest # they beat anybody by is 7 points
maybe weak teams - but still - pretty impressive
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Some of my NFL offers make it helpful for me to pick a few big favorites. I have way too many parlays starting with the Chiefs and ending with the Bills this weekend.
Best current offer is $10 5 leg same game soccer parlay gets me a 50% profit boost for a $25 bet.
I had my usual under 2.5/ better team shuts out lesser team parlay….. the 4-2 halftime score…. Oh well….
I have preseason bet on Astros to win AL, then a second bet on them to win WS. If I’m chicken I can hedge to guarantee a profit…..
Really stupid Caesars offer…. Bet on any team to win Stanley Cup ($50) and get a dollar free bet for every goal they score in the first 10 games. So on average between 33-38 or so. Buttttt…. Limited to $30 max! Meaning get a $30 free bet for making the initial wager. It’s possible it will be 28 or 29…. but shouldn’t limit. I took the Avalanche.
some o/u on NCAA games and NFL public picks of 65% or greater which are now 15-5 for the season - posting early - had some extra time this a.m.
Navy/Charlotte______ under 43.5
Akron/CMU___________________ under 43.5
Pitt/Louisville_______over 44.5
Air Force/Wyoming_______________over 42.5
Ohio/Northern Illinois________________________over 45
SJSU/UNM____________under 57.5
NFL week 6 -
49ers - 9.5 over Browns_________73%
Bengals -2.5 over Seahawks______________67%
Raiders -2.5 over Patriots_________________________71%
Lions - 3 over Bucs___________70%
Eagles -7 over Jets___________________65%
Dolphins -13.5 over Panthers_____________________74%
Rams -7 over Cardinals_____________70%__________________________glta
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gonna double down on this one
the 9ers - 9.5 over the Browns on Sunday - in their last game the Browns got crushed by 25 by the Ravens
as I mentioned earlier the 9ers have crushed all 5 teams they have played by an average of 19.8 points
I'll take the 9ers - don't mind giving up that many points in a situation like this
the news says that Browns QB Deshaun Watson will prolly sit with a shoulder injury and P.J. Walker will prolly start at QB - in 3 years he's thrown 5 TDs and 11 picks
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Quote: lilredrooster.
gonna double down on this one
the 9ers - 9.5 over the Browns on Sunday - in their last game the Browns got crushed by 25 by the Ravens
as I mentioned earlier the 9ers have crushed all 5 teams they have played by an average of 19.8 points
I'll take the 9ers - don't mind giving up that many points in a situation like this
the news says that Browns QB Deshaun Watson will prolly sit with a shoulder injury and P.J. Walker will prolly start at QB - in 3 years he's thrown 5 TDs and 11 picks
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Good luck if you can get 9.5. I see 10 most everywhere now. Line opened at 4, then the Watson news . . .
Quote: unJonQuote: lilredrooster.
gonna double down on this one
the 9ers - 9.5 over the Browns on Sunday - in their last game the Browns got crushed by 25 by the Ravens
as I mentioned earlier the 9ers have crushed all 5 teams they have played by an average of 19.8 points
I'll take the 9ers - don't mind giving up that many points in a situation like this
the news says that Browns QB Deshaun Watson will prolly sit with a shoulder injury and P.J. Walker will prolly start at QB - in 3 years he's thrown 5 TDs and 11 picks
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Good luck if you can get 9.5. I see 10 most everywhere now. Line opened at 4, then the Watson news . . .
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covers.com - linked - shows FanDuel and somebody else whose symbol I don't recognize as still offering 9.5
and according to covers.com com FanDuel opened up on 10/3 - 12 days before the actual game at -2.5
that's really crazy even with Watson - possible strategy of betting very early on big faves to get a much better deal__________?__________I dunno- maybe
I'm gonna look at a couple other big faves, and see what covers.com is indicating about what they opened up at
https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/nfl
https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/linemovement/sf-at-cle/284727
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I checked my early bets. I have 49ers at -5.5.
I didn’t watch the Houston /WVU game (luckily). I had last leg of a parlay as WVU -3.5. Apparently they lost on last second Hail Mary. I think I’m now ‘due’ for one of those to go my way!
I guess I did in soccer. Egypt scored in 4th minute of added time to beat Zambia as last leg of 3 leg soccer parlay. Total was +800 so a good one.
according to covers.com the Bills on 10/3 at FanDuel were -11.5 and they're now -15.5
and on 10/3 - Caesars, FanDuel and DraftKings had the Dolphins at -10.5 - they're now -13.5
and the Dolphins got crushed by the Bills by 28 on 10/1
of course, they had one less game to consider - but still____________?
what did Alice say when she got into Wonderland________???______________it just gets curioser and curioser
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Quote: lilredrooster.
according to covers.com the Bills on 10/3 at FanDuel were -11.5 and they're now -15.5
and on 10/3 - Caesars, FanDuel and DraftKings had the Dolphins at -10.5 - they're now -13.5
and the Dolphins got crushed by the Bills by 28 on 10/1
of course, they had one less game to consider - but still____________?
what did Alice say when she got into Wonderland________???______________it just gets curioser and curioser
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Giants QB is out. QB is now Tyrod Taylor, the essence of a journeyman QB. Supposed to be shitty weather. So I have curious parlays…. Start with Bills moneyline but Giants +14.5. Add under passing stats for Allen and under receiving yards for Diggs and I’ll make a pretty penny in the unlikely event all 4 hit.
Bills 20. Giants 13.
Quote: lilredrooster.
according to covers.com the Bills on 10/3 at FanDuel were -11.5 and they're now -15.5
and on 10/3 - Caesars, FanDuel and DraftKings had the Dolphins at -10.5 - they're now -13.5
and the Dolphins got crushed by the Bills by 28 on 10/1
of course, they had one less game to consider - but still____________?
what did Alice say when she got into Wonderland________???______________it just gets curioser and curioser
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10/3 would be the look ahead line. Comes off the board at some point before last week’s game and then the “opening” line comes up sometime after the last week’s game.
Movement from the look ahead line is not just injuries but what happened during the last week’s games.
Quote: unJonQuote: lilredrooster.
according to covers.com the Bills on 10/3 at FanDuel were -11.5 and they're now -15.5
and on 10/3 - Caesars, FanDuel and DraftKings had the Dolphins at -10.5 - they're now -13.5
and the Dolphins got crushed by the Bills by 28 on 10/1
of course, they had one less game to consider - but still____________?
what did Alice say when she got into Wonderland________???______________it just gets curioser and curioser
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10/3 would be the look ahead line. Comes off the board at some point before last week’s game and then the “opening” line comes up sometime after the last week’s game.
Movement from the look ahead line is not just injuries but what happened during the last week’s games.
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I think you're basically correct - but come on
wouldn't you agree that FanDuel having the line at -2.5 on 10/3 is kinna crazy__________?____________some kinna teaser line to stimulate action maybe_____?
the 9ers had already beaten 4 teams by an average of 16.5 points
and on 10/1 the Browns got beat by 25 by the Ravens
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: unJonQuote: lilredrooster.
according to covers.com the Bills on 10/3 at FanDuel were -11.5 and they're now -15.5
and on 10/3 - Caesars, FanDuel and DraftKings had the Dolphins at -10.5 - they're now -13.5
and the Dolphins got crushed by the Bills by 28 on 10/1
of course, they had one less game to consider - but still____________?
what did Alice say when she got into Wonderland________???______________it just gets curioser and curioser
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10/3 would be the look ahead line. Comes off the board at some point before last week’s game and then the “opening” line comes up sometime after the last week’s game.
Movement from the look ahead line is not just injuries but what happened during the last week’s games.
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I think you're basically correct - but come on
wouldn't you agree that FanDuel having the line at -2.5 on 10/3 is kinna crazy__________?____________some kinna teaser line to stimulate action maybe_____?
the 9ers had already beaten 4 teams by an average of 16.5 points
and on 10/1 the Browns got beat by 25 by the Ravens
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I agree it seems all upside down in hindsight. That said, when Vegas and I disagree I find it best to assume Vegas is better at handicapping than I am.
I would just add a few facts: Watson didn’t play against the Ravens and everyone assumed he would be playing against 49ers. Vegas has seemed to think the Browns were an offensive powerhouse with Watson. And they would be coming off a bye last week for the game.
You might find this page on Vegas Insider to be interesting. It is a tracking of the line movements over time: https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/matchups/49ers-vs-browns/line-movements/
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: unJonQuote: lilredrooster.
according to covers.com the Bills on 10/3 at FanDuel were -11.5 and they're now -15.5
and on 10/3 - Caesars, FanDuel and DraftKings had the Dolphins at -10.5 - they're now -13.5
and the Dolphins got crushed by the Bills by 28 on 10/1
of course, they had one less game to consider - but still____________?
what did Alice say when she got into Wonderland________???______________it just gets curioser and curioser
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10/3 would be the look ahead line. Comes off the board at some point before last week’s game and then the “opening” line comes up sometime after the last week’s game.
Movement from the look ahead line is not just injuries but what happened during the last week’s games.
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I think you're basically correct - but come on
wouldn't you agree that FanDuel having the line at -2.5 on 10/3 is kinna crazy__________?____________some kinna teaser line to stimulate action maybe_____?
the 9ers had already beaten 4 teams by an average of 16.5 points
and on 10/1 the Browns got beat by 25 by the Ravens
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Some consider the Browns to have the leagues best D.
Watson (I think?) didn’t play in one of Cleveland’s bad losses
West coast teams traveling East have it tough
Cleveland was supposed to at least be competing for the division before the season began.
But I agree with you that the line has looked low from the beginning. Hence my 49ers -5.5 pick. But my history on these bets when ‘ I think’ I know something is around 49%. I just checked my early parlay bets. A bunch have 49ers moneyline.
My dilemma, the Hawkeyes play Wisconsin this week and are getting 10 points. They are one of the worst offenses in Power 5 football. Normally in this situation I would take Iowa +10 points against Wisconsin. The problem is that Iowa lost their starting QB last week and he is out for the rest of the season. With that information I would normally adjust my pick and take Wisconsin. The dilemma is that the Iowa offense has been so horrendously bad, especially for a 5-1 team, that losing the starting QB could be an improvement. I don't know what to do so I guess I will just pass on this game.
I haven't posted these NFL picks - but I should have - my ego overruled - I wanted to see if I could win doing something else - looks like I prolly can't
anyway the Wizard showed - see link - in tracking over 3,000 games that all away won 53.1% for a small r.o.i. of 1.34%
more interesting is that he tracked more than 2,000 games of the away underdog and they won 53.75% for an r.o.i. of 2.57%
I'm pretty sure he used the closing lines as shown on covers.com or another reputable site
I tweaked that thinking big dogs were bad bets and I tracked over 300 games where the away underdog got 4 points or less and found they won at 57.6% with about a 10% r.o.i.
I did just the regular seasons i which is what I think the Wiz did too - iirc I did the last 3 full seasons
the away underdogs who got 4 points or fewer for the first 5 weeks of this season are now 13-8
I will post these picks now - many weeks left so I have 3 different trackings - my personal picks that really suck, the public consensus of 65% or greater which so far is doing great but may be a mirage, and:
away underdogs who got 4 points or fewer - here are the Week 6 picks re this:
Commanders +2.5
Seahawks +2.5
Patriots +2.5_________________glta
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
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Quote: lilredrooster.
I haven't posted these NFL picks - but I should have - my ego overruled - I wanted to see if I could win doing something else - looks like I prolly can't
anyway the Wizard showed - see link - in tracking over 3,000 games that all away won 53.1% for a small r.o.i. of 1.34%
more interesting is that he tracked more than 2,000 games of the away underdog and they won 53.75% for an r.o.i. of 2.57%
I'm pretty sure he used the closing lines as shown on covers.com or another reputable site
I tweaked that thinking big dogs were bad bets and I tracked over 300 games where the away underdog got 4 points or less and found they won at 57.6% with about a 10% r.o.i.
I did just the regular seasons i which is what I think the Wiz did too - iirc I did the last 3 full seasons
the away underdogs who got 4 points or fewer for the first 5 weeks of this season are now 13-8
I will post these picks now - many weeks left so I have 3 different trackings - my personal picks that really suck, the public consensus of 65% or greater which so far is doing great but may be a mirage, and:
away underdogs who got 4 points or fewer - here are the Week 6 picks re this:
Commanders +2.5
Seahawks +2.5
Patriots +2.5_________________glta
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
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I like the other team in all 3 games. So I’m going to parlay against your 3 picks! As I’ve mentioned many times, I’m not a ‘sharp’, I’m a ‘square’.
So went to sleep with Colorado up 29-0 at halftime. I’m had a few Colorado/over bets cooking. My overs were around 60. So I figured had around 40-50% chance to hit the over.
Wellllll….. the over hit….. but Colorado LOST in overtime!
I also had Colorado moneyline as my ‘safe’ picks in two parlays…
I won NINE CENTS on the FanDuel free to play game. Parlayed a few things that hit and if JT Poston wins golf tourney that turns into….. a dollar……
Edit. I did make the bet. But two of the 3 games were -3, not -2.5. So I bought the half point to go to -120 instead of -110. Still made the bet using 50% profit boost token. Finished at +800.
Quote: unJonLike ND -3 today. Think the correction on them after last week has been too severe. We shall see.
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I would lean the other way but i also wouldn't be betting it.
I like UCLA +3.5 today and Penn St -41.5.
Petroski +165 vs Pereira. Likely to go the distance and Pereira sometimes does some really bone headed things that cost him rounds. I think the match is more like a coin flip.
I think Davis breaks Albright down by about round 5-6.
Quote: unJonLike ND -3 today. Think the correction on them after last week has been too severe. We shall see.
Good pick. They dominated USC.
Quote: DRichQuote: unJonLike ND -3 today. Think the correction on them after last week has been too severe. We shall see.
Good pick. They dominated USC.
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That was unexpectedly enjoyable.
pretty interesting to me anyway
re rain and betting the totals in college football
potentially useful
per the article the books don't fully adjust for this
from the article:
"on games with any level of participation the total is under 55-56% of the time, with a point or two of value against the line per quarter inch of precipitation. There are an average of 54 games per season with precipitation. If you took the under on all of those, you'd be expected to hit 30-23-1.
LOTS OF RAIN VS. THE SPREAD - UNDER BETS
all Games 3740-3553-102 51.3%
No Precipitation 3350-3254-89 50.7%
Less than 1" 359-286-11 55.7%
More than 1" 31-13-2 70.5%"
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/20...ditions-effect
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one more pick - the line changed - now falls into the away underdog getting 4 points or less thing
Colts + 3.5
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