Sports betting chatter

Chatgpt is not coming up with the correct answer for the question I was trying to get it to do, which is: I can make a wager where I wager $100 with a 40% chance of winning and get paid 4:3. Only If I lose, I get a second chance where I make the same $100 bet, do not get the wager returned, and receive only the winnings. Is this a good bet?

It's kind of helped me, though, in that the thing to do is figure out first what the EV of the second chance is, which is 0.40* 133.33 = 53.33. So if I lose the first bet, I lose the amount of the wager minus the EV of the second chance? I would lose $100, normally, but on average now I lose 100-53.33 = 46.67

it led me here and this may be incorrect but I get

EV = (0.40 * 133.33) - (0.60 * 46.67) = 25.33

The below is what Chatgpt gets,

Quote:

I apologize for the oversight. [I keep having to correct that same error] Let's calculate the corrected expected value (EV) using the formula you provided:

EV = (Probability of winning initial bet * Expected value of winning initial bet) - (Probability of losing initial bet * Expected value of winning second bet)

Probability of winning the initial bet = 40% (0.40)
If you win, you receive 4/3 times your wager ($100 * 4/3 ≈ $133.33).
So, the expected value of winning the initial bet = 0.40 * $133.33 ≈ $53.33.

Probability of losing the initial bet = 60% (0.60)
If you lose, you get a second chance with a $100 bet.
Now, the probability of winning the second bet is 40% (0.40), and if you win, you receive $100 in winnings.
So, the expected value of winning the second bet after losing the initial bet = 0.60 * 0.40 * $100 = $24.00.

Now, let's calculate the overall expected value using the corrected formula:

EV = (0.40 * $53.33) - (0.60 * $24.00)
EV = $21.33 - $14.40
EV = $6.93

The corrected expected value (EV) of this bet is approximately $6.93. This means that, on average, you can expect to win $6.93 in the long run for every $100 wagered.

Based on this corrected calculation, it still appears that this is a favorable bet in the long run, as the expected value is positive. However, as mentioned earlier, individual outcomes can still vary, and there is always a risk of losing money in any single instance of the bet.

I'm pretty sure it can't understand winning only the winnings and not getting the wager back. Instead it says I'll win $100, which I can't think is right

Quote: odiousgambit

Chatgpt is not coming up with the correct answer for the question I was trying to get it to do, which is: I can make a wager where I wager $100 with a 40% chance of winning and get paid 4:3. Only If I lose, I get a second chance where I make the same $100 bet, do not get the wager returned, and receive only the winnings. Is this a good bet?

It's kind of helped me, though, in that the thing to do is figure out first what the EV of the second chance is, which is 0.40* 133.33 = 53.33. So if I lose the first bet, I lose the amount of the wager minus the EV of the second chance? I would lose $100, normally, but on average now I lose 100-53.33 = 46.67

it led me here and this may be incorrect but I get

EV = (0.40 * 133.33) - (0.60 * 46.67) = 25.33

The below is what Chatgpt gets,

Quote:

I apologize for the oversight. [I keep having to correct that same error] Let's calculate the corrected expected value (EV) using the formula you provided:

EV = (Probability of winning initial bet * Expected value of winning initial bet) - (Probability of losing initial bet * Expected value of winning second bet)

Probability of winning the initial bet = 40% (0.40)
If you win, you receive 4/3 times your wager ($100 * 4/3 ≈ $133.33).
So, the expected value of winning the initial bet = 0.40 * $133.33 ≈ $53.33.

Probability of losing the initial bet = 60% (0.60)
If you lose, you get a second chance with a $100 bet.
Now, the probability of winning the second bet is 40% (0.40), and if you win, you receive $100 in winnings.
So, the expected value of winning the second bet after losing the initial bet = 0.60 * 0.40 * $100 = $24.00.

Now, let's calculate the overall expected value using the corrected formula:

EV = (0.40 * $53.33) - (0.60 * $24.00)
EV = $21.33 - $14.40
EV = $6.93

The corrected expected value (EV) of this bet is approximately $6.93. This means that, on average, you can expect to win $6.93 in the long run for every $100 wagered.

Based on this corrected calculation, it still appears that this is a favorable bet in the long run, as the expected value is positive. However, as mentioned earlier, individual outcomes can still vary, and there is always a risk of losing money in any single instance of the bet.

I'm pretty sure it can't understand winning only the winnings and not getting the wager back. Instead it says I'll win $100, which I can't think is right
link to original post

Assuming I understand the question correctly, there are ultimately three possibilities.

Possibility 1: You win the initial $100 bet that pays 4:3, thereby resulting in a return of $233.33 of which $133.33 is profit.

Possibility 2: You lose the initial $100 bet, but win the follow up bet that pays to the extent of winnings only, thus resulting a return of $133.33 of which $33.33 is profit.

Possibility 3: You lose both bets, therefore losing $100.

The probability of winning either of the two bets, individually, is 40%. We start with the 40% probability of winning the first bet to get its EV:

$133.33 * .4 = $53.33

The second possibility is to lose the first bet, but win the second, which nets a profit of $33.33:

(.6 * .4) * 33.33 = $8

The third possibility is to lose BOTH bets, which results in a loss of $100:

(.6 * .6) * -100 = -$36

The overall probabilities have been included in the EV calculations, but for proof, they are 40%, 24% and 36%, in order. This totals 100%.

At this point, we simply do some addition and subtraction:

$53.33 + $8 - $36 = $25.33

Therefore, the expected outcome is that you will see a profit of $25.33, ergo, your advantage on an initial investment of $100 is 25.33%.

In terms of the errors that ChatGPT makes, I find:

Quote:

Probability of losing the initial bet = 60% (0.60)
If you lose, you get a second chance with a $100 bet.
Now, the probability of winning the second bet is 40% (0.40), and if you win, you receive $100 in winnings.
So, the expected value of winning the second bet after losing the initial bet = 0.60 * 0.40 * $100 = $24.00.

This is completely wrong. If the bet continues to pay out at 4:3, then you would get $133.33 in, 'Winnings,' of which $33.33 would be profits. There's really no reason to consider the initial $100 as anything except in the case where it is lost. Focusing only on expected profit will help prevent getting mixed up, which our AI overlords clearly did here.

Quote:

Now, let's calculate the overall expected value using the corrected formula:

EV = (0.40 * $53.33) - (0.60 * $24.00)
EV = $21.33 - $14.40
EV = $6.93

ChatGPT had already accounted that there was a 40% chance to profit $133.33, which is how it (correctly) got to an EV of $53.33 for that in the first place. For reasons beyond my comprehension, it decided to attempt to do the 40% probability in looking at the EV that had already taken its own 40% chance into account.

It also does I don't even know what the logic is here:

Quote:

So, the expected value of winning the second bet after losing the initial bet = 0.60 * 0.40 * $100 = $24.00.

Which it then takes the $24 and multiplies by .6 and subtracts from the (.4 * $53.33)!!!???

ChatGPT is beyond lost, at this point.

In summary, I will not be replaced just yet.

thanks for the help!

Quote: Mission146

Assuming I understand the question correctly, there are ultimately three possibilities.

Possibility 1: You win the initial $100 bet that pays 4:3, thereby resulting in a return of $233.33 of which $133.33 is profit.

Possibility 2: You lose the initial $100 bet, but win the follow up bet that pays to the extent of winnings only, thus resulting a return of $133.33 of which $33.33 is profit.

ah, yes, something was eating at me about 133.33 but I couldn't see it

Quote:

Possibility 3: You lose both bets, therefore losing $100.

all correct

Quote:

The probability of winning either of the two bets, individually, is 40%. We start with the 40% probability of winning the first bet to get its EV:

$133.33 * .4 = $53.33

The second possibility is to lose the first bet, but win the second, which nets a profit of $33.33:

(.6 * .4) * 33.33 = $8

The third possibility is to lose BOTH bets, which results in a loss of $100:

(.6 * .6) * -100 = -$36

The overall probabilities have been included in the EV calculations, but for proof, they are 40%, 24% and 36%, in order. This totals 100%.

I probably need to internalize this business of adding up to 100% and then each EV can just be added. Do I have that right?

Quote:

At this point, we simply do some addition and subtraction:

$53.33 + $8 - $36 = $25.33

Therefore, the expected outcome is that you will see a profit of $25.33, ergo, your advantage on an initial investment of $100 is 25.33%.
link to original post

I haven't quite figured out yet how I did it wrong, which I concede, and still get nearly the same answer LOL

Quote: Mission146

In summary, I will not be replaced just yet.
link to original post

Hooray for the humans!

But you know what happened to Kasparov!

Quote: odiousgambit

1.) thanks for the help!

ah, yes, something was eating at me about 133.33 but I couldn't see it

all correct

2.) I probably need to internalize this business of adding up to 100% and then each EV can just be added. Do I have that right?

3.) I haven't quite figured out yet how I did it wrong, which I concede, and still get nearly the same answer LOL

(Quote clipped, quote-in-quote removed. Numbers added.)

1. You're welcome!

2. There are many ways to skin a cat, at least, sometimes. ChatGPT just doesn't know what a cat is, in this case. When I do stuff like this, my tendency is to break into as many simple steps as possible just so anyone who might read the thread will know how to solve a similar problem. In other words, my way is deliberately NOT concise, but it does explain the logic behind each step.

3. You got EXACTLY the same answer, so must not have done it wrong. As to HOW you got the right answer...I'd be lying if I claimed to know why that worked. lol

This will be an easy one. If I flip a coin 14 times, how often will heads appear 10 or more times?


I’m asking because Caesars has promo. Bet 14 NFL pointspread games at $25 each. Essentially all will pay at -110.
If you win 10 or more you get $150 ‘free bet’ bonus.

I think the EV on the 14 bets is -$17.50. And the EV on the $150 free bet is around +$100.

So I think the overall EV of this promo is still slightly negative. My brain guesstimated I hit 10 or more 8% of the time.

They had similar promo last year which I think was better AND last year I’d get rewards credits and tier credits that were way more valuable last year. Unless someone corrects me I’m skipping this offer.

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totally unreal - from the article_____________it ain't easy________________52.4% winners ats will about break you even (NFL)


"For context, among the 385 so-called experts tracked by Pickwatch last season, only 34 were correct on better than 52 percent of their against-the-spread recommendations picking all the games last season."


https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/09/06/nfl-picks-odds-best-bets-week-1/

Quote: lilredrooster

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totally unreal - from the article_____________it ain't easy________________52.4% winners ats will about break you even (NFL)


"For context, among the 385 so-called experts tracked by Pickwatch last season, only 34 were correct on better than 52 percent of their against-the-spread recommendations picking all the games last season."


https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/09/06/nfl-picks-odds-best-bets-week-1/
link to original post

I couldn't read the article, but if they had to pick every game I would not expect many to do well. Game selection and line selection are the most important aspects of sports betting.

Quote: DRich

Quote: lilredrooster

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totally unreal - from the article_____________it ain't easy________________52.4% winners ats will about break you even (NFL)


"For context, among the 385 so-called experts tracked by Pickwatch last season, only 34 were correct on better than 52 percent of their against-the-spread recommendations picking all the games last season."


https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/09/06/nfl-picks-odds-best-bets-week-1/
link to original post

I couldn't read the article, but if they had to pick every game I would not expect many to do well. Game selection and line selection are the most important aspects of sports betting.
link to original post

I guess they woulda done better on their best bets__________I dunno__________I would bet that way less than half showed a profit

.

Quote: SOOPOO

This will be an easy one. If I flip a coin 14 times, how often will heads appear 10 or more times?


I’m asking because Caesars has promo. Bet 14 NFL pointspread games at $25 each. Essentially all will pay at -110.
If you win 10 or more you get $150 ‘free bet’ bonus.

I think the EV on the 14 bets is -$17.50. And the EV on the $150 free bet is around +$100.

So I think the overall EV of this promo is still slightly negative. My brain guesstimated I hit 10 or more 8% of the time.

They had similar promo last year which I think was better AND last year I’d get rewards credits and tier credits that were way more valuable last year. Unless someone corrects me I’m skipping this offer.
link to original post

Greetings!

Interestingly, I was asked about this very promo last night and roughly (though a little less roughly than your guestimate) figured it out; it is pretty easy.

ASSUMPTIONS

The first thing that we are going to do is start with the following assumptions:

1.) We are going to assume that every spread bet is 50/50 to be a winner. If a person considers himself/herself to be an excellent handicapper, then perhaps they think they can do better than 50/50 long-term, but for our purposes, it's 50/50.

2.) We are going to make pushes (ex. a +3 line and the team loses by three) impossible for these purposes. Of course, they aren't impossible, but since the promotion is terrible anyway, there is no reason to consider the probability of a push.

3.) We have 28 cards. On the picture side of the cards, 14 are black and 14 are red; this is a good mental visual aid and also means we can use combinatorics to get to the cumulative probability.

THE MATH

The first thing that we will consider is the probability of hitting 10+ wins:

nCr(14,10)*nCr(14,4)/nCr(28,14) = 0.0249772164141527

nCr(14,11)*nCr(14,3)/nCr(28,14) = 0.0033027724184004

nCr(14,12)*nCr(14,2)/nCr(28,14) = 0.00020642327615

nCr(14,13)*nCr(14,1)/nCr(28,14) = 0.0000048857580154

nCr(14,14)*nCr(14,0)/nCr(28,14) = 0.0000000249273368

We sum these probabilities:

0.0000000249273368 + 0.0000048857580154 + 0.00020642327615 + 0.0033027724184004 + 0.0249772164141527 = 0.0284913227940553

This is so fundamental as to not really beg for proof, but we will prove it anyway. What we are going to do next is nine wins and eight wins:

nCr(14,9)*nCr(14,5)/nCr(28,14) = 0.099908865656611 * 2 = 0.199817731313222 (The *2 is to account for five wins and nine losses)

nCr(14,8)*nCr(14,6)/nCr(28,14) = 0.2247949477273747 * 2 = 0.4495898954547494 (The *2 is to account for six wins and eight losses)

Next, we will look at seven wins and seven losses, which can only happen one way***:

nCr(14,7)*nCr(14,7)/nCr(28,14) = 0.293609727643918

***Technically, this can happen many ways, but that's what the combinatorics is for. For our purposes, 7-7 can only happen one way.

We sum these probabilities and double the 10-14 cumulative probability to account for the inverse in losses:

(0.0284913227940553 * 2) + 0.293609727643918 + 0.4495898954547494 + 0.199817731313222 = 1

Every probability has been accounted for and our logic is proven. Of course, it's a simple problem, so we had no doubt that would happen.

THE JUICE

The next thing that we have to do is account for the vig on our main bets. As I was presented this promotion, you would get $1,500 in free bets if you made a $250 spread bet for every game:

(250 * (100/110) * .5)) - (250 * .5) = -11.3636363636363636

In other words, we expect to lose $11.36 each game, which checks out as:

11.36/250 = 0.04544 This represents the implied juice of 4.544%. Keep in mind we are ignoring the possibility of pushes for these purposes; the reason why is that we will prove the promotion is so bad that pushes won't matter.

$11.36 * 14 = $159.04

With that, we expect to lose $159.04 on our bets.

KICKBACK

For the purposes of the kickback, we are going to pretend that the kickback is actual CASH, as opposed to Free Bets, just to prove how bad this is:

1500 * 0.0284913227940553 = 42.73698419108295

If this were straight cash, which it isn't, it would represent additional EV of about $42.74, which:

-159.04 + 42.74 = ($116.30)

Would still leave us with an expected loss of $116.30.

Even then, still ignoring pushes and assuming it pays cash, rather than free bets:

116.30/(250*14) = 0.0332285714285714

The implied juice would be reduced to 3.3223%, which is still quite bad, and that's with the favorable assumption of ties being impossible AND if the promotion paid cash, rather than Free Bets, which have a lower value than cash.

Obviously, this promotion is enticement to make fourteen bets that, individually and collectively, would all still be bad bets. In the extreme case that a person bets the applicable amount on EVERY SINGLE SPREAD anyway, then this adds a little value; otherwise, it is simply unplayable.

Is anyone else surprised that the Chiefs are only 4.5 favorites over the Lions tonight? I understand that Kelce is questionable but he is probably only worth 2 points or so.

I would have expected this line to be 7.5 assuming Kelce is healthy and playing. There may be a little value on KC tonight.

For those of you that are like me and not terribly interested in the NFL, Murray State plays Louisville tonight and the Racers are getting 43.5 points. the game is on the ACC network.

Quote: Mission146

Interestingly, I was asked about this very promo last night and roughly (though a little less roughly than your guestimate) figured it out; it is pretty easy.
link to original post

I put nCr(14,10)*nCr(14,4)/nCr(28,14) into the online calc and got 0.0249 as well , so maybe I should learn how to do this. Another day. Chatgpt says "nCr(14,10), which is read as "14 choose 10," represents the number of ways to choose 10 items from a set of 14 items without regard to the order" but ultimately gives the wrong answer as opposed to the calculator, after much deliberation: "the value of nCr(14,10) * nCr(14,4) / nCr(28,14) is approximately 1.84298." It should just learn to use a calculator LOL

I asked her [I've come to think of it as a she] "Bet 14 games with the chances of winning at 50%, at $25 each. Essentially all will pay at -110.
If you win 10 or more you get $150 ‘free bet’ bonus. Is this a good bet?" I can't follow exactly how she goes about it so I won't make fun of it. "EV ≈ $58.97" concludes her nibs, including the $150 which she assumed was worth $150, then warns again about gambling, as is her wont.

Some guy was saying on a youtube video that AI was on the level of Einstein now, but by a very short period of time, next year or something, will be orders of magnitude smarter. I wonder if the online casinos will start using it, which would be ok now but bad by next year, eh? In particular I hope they don't figure out one mistake they make which has been very profitable this summer for me. I've decided to quit talking about exactly what mistake that is.

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Mission146

Interestingly, I was asked about this very promo last night and roughly (though a little less roughly than your guestimate) figured it out; it is pretty easy.
link to original post

I put nCr(14,10)*nCr(14,4)/nCr(28,14) into the online calc and got 0.0249 as well , so maybe I should learn how to do this. Another day. Chatgpt says "nCr(14,10), which is read as "14 choose 10," represents the number of ways to choose 10 items from a set of 14 items without regard to the order" but ultimately gives the wrong answer as opposed to the calculator, after much deliberation: "the value of nCr(14,10) * nCr(14,4) / nCr(28,14) is approximately 1.84298." It should just learn to use a calculator LOL

I asked her [I've come to think of it as a she] "Bet 14 games with the chances of winning at 50%, at $25 each. Essentially all will pay at -110.
If you win 10 or more you get $150 ‘free bet’ bonus. Is this a good bet?" I can't follow exactly how she goes about it so I won't make fun of it. "EV ≈ $58.97" concludes her nibs, including the $150 which she assumed was worth $150, then warns again about gambling, as is her wont.

Some guy was saying on a youtube video that AI was on the level of Einstein now, but by a very short period of time, next year or something, will be orders of magnitude smarter. I wonder if the online casinos will start using it, which would be ok now but bad by next year, eh? In particular I hope they don't figure out one mistake they make which has been very profitable this summer for me. I've decided to quit talking about exactly what mistake that is.
link to original post

I probably don't write as often as I should, but I do like having the job...so if we could continue to just let ChatGPT be mathematically stupider than I am---that would be awesome.

I have noticed the stateside online casinos have gotten much more mathematically sound in the promotions that they offer to existing players. When I say that, I am only speaking generally. Many of the, "Bet x, get y---a, b, and c are restricted games," end up being such that the player still has an expectation of worse than breakeven. Even when it's not worse than breakeven, it's such a narrow edge (on so much in total bets) that whether or not the player will profit is a virtual coin flip.

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huge match fixing scandal in tennis -


from the article:


"On Thursday morning, the Washington Post published an investigation into the largest match-fixing ring in tennis history, the publication alleges.

A Belgian man named Grigor Sargsyan orchestrated the scheme with the help of 180 professional players, all of whom were on the longer rungs of the circuit.

The European operation, which was first busted in 2018, resulted in a five-year sentence for Sargsyan in addition to significant punishments for players, associates and those involved.

Sargsyan netted millions in profits from the scheme, much of which — at least $9.6 million over a two year period — was sent back to an associate in Armenia who was reportedly assisting from prison.

The story reports that up to $50,000 was sent to lower level players to throw not just matches, but individual points that the crooks would then wager on themselves.

As many tennis bettors will know, the sport is perhaps the most vulnerable to fixing and related activities due to the individual nature of the sport and the sport's financial structure.

While events like the US Open project a positive image regarding the finances and glamor behind professional tennis, the reality is that a majority of professional players are struggling to make ends meet.

Only a few hundred players in both the men's and women's game make a significant income playing tennis. Players are also required to put upfront costs into coaching, travel, equipment and otherwise.

Athletes outside of the top 500 sometimes require second or third jobs. In other sports, they would be multi-millionaires.

The Tennis Integrity Unit is designed to protect against corruption in the sport, and while it has had some success, the unit has not been able to eradicate the issue — especially from the sport's lower levels."


https://www.actionnetwork.com/tennis/investigation-reveals-largest-documented-tennis-match-fixing-ring


I'm also linking the Wash Post story which may be paywalled - but I'm able to read it without subscribing by putting the headline into google and then clicking the link


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2023/tennis-match-fixing-gambling-investigation-belgium/


.


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Thanks Mission. I was way off in my guesstimate of 8%! 2.8% as you have shown makes it clearly -EV. Of interest, they were allowing you to ‘buy’ a half point which I think was to avoid any potential pushes. I unfortunately don’t remember the exact promo from last year.

DK is doing the ‘up 10 any time and you win’ promo again. Last night (cha Ching) it was up 7 anytime and you win. As we figured out last year, I’ve been taking the underdogs and got +220 on the Lions. Both teams won by the way.

Upcoming I have the Texans (feels like money thrown away!) and the Jets (makes me want to puke betting against the Bills).

Quote: lilredrooster

.
huge match fixing scandal in tennis -


from the article:


"On Thursday morning, the Washington Post published an investigation into the largest match-fixing ring in tennis history, the publication alleges.

A Belgian man named Grigor Sargsyan orchestrated the scheme with the help of 180 professional players, all of whom were on the longer rungs of the circuit.

The European operation, which was first busted in 2018, resulted in a five-year sentence for Sargsyan in addition to significant punishments for players, associates and those involved.

Sargsyan netted millions in profits from the scheme, much of which — at least $9.6 million over a two year period — was sent back to an associate in Armenia who was reportedly assisting from prison.

The story reports that up to $50,000 was sent to lower level players to throw not just matches, but individual points that the crooks would then wager on themselves.

As many tennis bettors will know, the sport is perhaps the most vulnerable to fixing and related activities due to the individual nature of the sport and the sport's financial structure.

While events like the US Open project a positive image regarding the finances and glamor behind professional tennis, the reality is that a majority of professional players are struggling to make ends meet.

Only a few hundred players in both the men's and women's game make a significant income playing tennis. Players are also required to put upfront costs into coaching, travel, equipment and otherwise.

Athletes outside of the top 500 sometimes require second or third jobs. In other sports, they would be multi-millionaires.

The Tennis Integrity Unit is designed to protect against corruption in the sport, and while it has had some success, the unit has not been able to eradicate the issue — especially from the sport's lower levels."


https://www.actionnetwork.com/tennis/investigation-reveals-largest-documented-tennis-match-fixing-ring


I'm also linking the Wash Post story which may be paywalled - but I'm able to read it without subscribing by putting the headline into google and then clicking the link


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2023/tennis-match-fixing-gambling-investigation-belgium/


.


.
link to original post

I don’t pay much attention to ‘next point’ betting, but I now can see it is a GIANT opportunity for ‘fixing’ a result without throwing an entire match! If both players are in on it, it can be as simple as Player A wins third point of his second service game, while Player B wins 4th point of same game.

What I don’t know is how much money a bettor can get down on such bets on lower level events? And if I’m hitting unusually high % when are red flags apparent?

Quote: SOOPOO

Thanks Mission. I was way off in my guesstimate of 8%! 2.8% as you have shown makes it clearly -EV. Of interest, they were allowing you to ‘buy’ a half point which I think was to avoid any potential pushes. I unfortunately don’t remember the exact promo from last year.

DK is doing the ‘up 10 any time and you win’ promo again. Last night (cha Ching) it was up 7 anytime and you win. As we figured out last year, I’ve been taking the underdogs and got +220 on the Lions. Both teams won by the way.

Upcoming I have the Texans (feels like money thrown away!) and the Jets (makes me want to puke betting against the Bills).
link to original post

I'd have to look at the new lines with the buy/sell and determine the implications, but as we have already determined, the promotion is bad even if there was no possibility to push naturally. Eliminating the push, you get added juice, but then you're making bets that are even worse than our assumptions (no push possible, all -110) were in the first place. Clearly, the CET thing is just get people to make 14 terrible bets that remain terrible, or alternatively, become even worse while giving long shot EV (10+ wins) that doesn't nearly compensate.

The DraftKings promotion rules and everyone offered it should do it-all underdogs.

For anyone who may have missed it, here's my WoO page proving how awesome the DK ten ahead promo is:

https://wizardofodds.com/online-gambling/sports-betting/interesting-nfl-promotion

I assume no significant changes. I'll take a deep dive into the terms later if I remember. Might be tomorrow.

https://wizardofodds.com/online-gambling/sports-betting/interesting-nfl-promotion

Quote: Mission146

14.) What is the best favorite line for this promotion?

-Betting on the underdog instead.

Heh. I'm funny sometimes.

I kind of like the under 57 tonight on Illinois Kansas

Quote: DRich

I kind of like the under 57 tonight on Illinois Kansas
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I got boosted parlay (+375) KU -3.5/O 56.5. 31-7 in 3rd Q. Maybe makes up for my Alcaraz over Medvedev picks….

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

I kind of like the under 57 tonight on Illinois Kansas
link to original post

I got boosted parlay (+375) KU -3.5/O 56.5. 31-7 in 3rd Q. Maybe makes up for my Alcaraz over Medvedev picks….
link to original post

Lucky cover!!! Needed TWO Illinois 2pt conversions to cover.

Update on my online sportsbetting, which I recently expanded.

Looks like I’m sticking with BetMGM, not too much not to like there. They seem to have figured out I’m not their kind of guy … no birthday bonus again, a real sign of that I think. Every once in a while I get a whiff of a promotion I can’t seem to grab [currently with college football] … but on the other hand, if the promotion is classified to be for “everybody” they don’t try to withhold it. They cough up the winnings instantly, without trouble, and when you make a bet with, say, second-chance going, you get an acknowledgement, usually right on the bet slip. This summer was profitable by my low roller standards.

Caesars is no more for me, that business of no acknowledgement was a problem, sometimes finding that a bet failed to be covered by the offer as I expected …. there was no way to know beforehand if it was or not, or if it was a glitch, or what. I was waiting to see if they would improve their website, so I left it alone for a while [obviously leaving a zero balance]. When I went back to check on them not so much later [<6 months?] I was locked out unless I created a new password. In the meantime I had a new phone number they didn’t have, making that impossible since they decided there’s only one way to do two-step confirmation, and that’s by texting. I’d have to call them and talk to them to get back in. They sucked, so why would I do that? … not knowing that anything changed and possibly they got a bad attitude because I left a zero balance. Well #^%$#^%# you too.

With Fanduel I signed up a long time ago, but never made a deposit, being put off by their T&Cs, which basically say we can just take your money and not give it back if we want to, “unfettered”. Well, yes, now I’ve relaxed a bit, finding there’s no real horror stories out there. Plus if you use Paypal these outfits seem very comfortable with that. But Fanduel for me is stuck in a certain mode, I went past the time limit for getting a new player bonus and they decided the right approach with me is to dig in their heels and offer nothing at all … not even -EV sucker offers. OK, whatever, I’ve never made a deposit, maybe something would happen if I did. I just don’t need another site to gamble on.

The new thing then is that I just gave Draftkings a whirl. They are busy cheating me out of the $200 you are supposed to get for plopping down $5. Yes I thought they were, turns out I couldn’t see what I was supposed to see because I had the laptop set for ‘giant text for the half-blind’. I’m so used to problems with that I finally figured it out. Got some of that $200 in bonus dough bet now and we’ll see if they pass the Big Test which for me is whether they gladly fork over the winnings or not. I have a small bet going using the 10 points ahead always wins deal … I notice there is no acknowledgement the bet is covered by the deal. I *hate that* after the Caesars problems, so I may take my money and run with this outfit. In the meantime I see there are lots of offers.

Quote: DRich

I kind of like the under 57 tonight on Illinois Kansas
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wow 57 exactly who would have thought it

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gonna try an Over - 56.5
Youngstown St. vs. Ohio State

OSU went over that total 11-2 last year_____________________early game 12:00 et

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Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

I kind of like the under 57 tonight on Illinois Kansas
link to original post

I got boosted parlay (+375) KU -3.5/O 56.5. 31-7 in 3rd Q. Maybe makes up for my Alcaraz over Medvedev picks….
link to original post

Nice!!

I thought the under was looking good until two touchdowns were scored in the last minute of the first half. Obviously my under 57 pushed but I think the Illinois player may have been short on the two point conversion at the end of the game. They never showed a replay or reviewed it probably because the game was out of hand at that point.

Quote: lilredrooster

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gonna try an Over - 56.5
Youngstown St. vs. Ohio State

OSU went over that total 11-2 last year_____________________early game 12:00 et

.
link to original post

Based on OSU's offensive performance last week I wouldn't be confident of that over. Is former OSU coach Tressel still the president of Youngstown St?

Quote: odiousgambit

Update on my online sportsbetting, which I recently expanded.

Looks like I’m sticking with BetMGM, not too much not to like there. They seem to have figured out I’m not their kind of guy … no birthday bonus again, a real sign of that I think. Every once in a while I get a whiff of a promotion I can’t seem to grab [currently with college football] … but on the other hand, if the promotion is classified to be for “everybody” they don’t try to withhold it. They cough up the winnings instantly, without trouble, and when you make a bet with, say, second-chance going, you get an acknowledgement, usually right on the bet slip. This summer was profitable by my low roller standards.

Caesars is no more for me, that business of no acknowledgement was a problem, sometimes finding that a bet failed to be covered by the offer as I expected …. there was no way to know beforehand if it was or not, or if it was a glitch, or what. I was waiting to see if they would improve their website, so I left it alone for a while [obviously leaving a zero balance]. When I went back to check on them not so much later [<6 months?] I was locked out unless I created a new password. In the meantime I had a new phone number they didn’t have, making that impossible since they decided there’s only one way to do two-step confirmation, and that’s by texting. I’d have to call them and talk to them to get back in. They sucked, so why would I do that? … not knowing that anything changed and possibly they got a bad attitude because I left a zero balance. Well #^%$#^%# you too.

With Fanduel I signed up a long time ago, but never made a deposit, being put off by their T&Cs, which basically say we can just take your money and not give it back if we want to, “unfettered”. Well, yes, now I’ve relaxed a bit, finding there’s no real horror stories out there. Plus if you use Paypal these outfits seem very comfortable with that. But Fanduel for me is stuck in a certain mode, I went past the time limit for getting a new player bonus and they decided the right approach with me is to dig in their heels and offer nothing at all … not even -EV sucker offers. OK, whatever, I’ve never made a deposit, maybe something would happen if I did. I just don’t need another site to gamble on.

The new thing then is that I just gave Draftkings a whirl. They are busy cheating me out of the $200 you are supposed to get for plopping down $5. Yes I thought they were, turns out I couldn’t see what I was supposed to see because I had the laptop set for ‘giant text for the half-blind’. I’m so used to problems with that I finally figured it out. Got some of that $200 in bonus dough bet now and we’ll see if they pass the Big Test which for me is whether they gladly fork over the winnings or not. I have a small bet going using the 10 points ahead always wins deal … I notice there is no acknowledgement the bet is covered by the deal. I *hate that* after the Caesars problems, so I may take my money and run with this outfit. In the meantime I see there are lots of offers.
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How quickly we forget:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/dueling-with-fanduel/

Fanduel is also super aggressive about banning players if they suspect bonus abuse. Without elaborating, I will say that it is NOT impossible for them to also withhold funds.

My experience with DraftKings is positive. The only thing that they will do if you are beating their @$$3$ is that you won't get offers other than those for general public anymore, alternatively, they may give you custom offers that require tons of play and are basically breakeven, if not slightly lower. Even the ones that are marginally beatable will require so much play as to be extremely time-consuming (on any reasonable bet amount) or make the actual results a virtual coin flip.

That said, DraftKings does pay and they tend to pay quickly. I would also say that they figure they are making their money and generally seem unconcerned with someone APing them, provided that someone is keeping to the letter of the T&Cs; the worst I have seen from them is just not giving custom offers that are at all good (after you have been there for awhile) and sometimes locking your account (but eventually unlocking it) as a slap on the hand for certain things.

As far as general public promotions, I have not seen DK take any action against a player for taking advantage of promotions offered to everyone. That's not to say that they never would, but honestly, they seem not to really care so far.

Quote: DRich

Quote: lilredrooster

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gonna try an Over - 56.5
Youngstown St. vs. Ohio State

OSU went over that total 11-2 last year_____________________early game 12:00 et

.
link to original post

Based on OSU's offensive performance last week I wouldn't be confident of that over. Is former OSU coach Tressel still the president of Youngstown St?
link to original post

good point
not sure about Tressel
pretty sure Youngstown St. is weaker than Indiana who they played last week - OSU is 41.5 pt. faves
they're home this week - were away last week - guessing they want to please the home crowd with many TDs
Youngstown St. scored 52 last week - of course against a much weaker team
wouldn't say I'm confident - just taking a flyer

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Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: DRich

Quote: lilredrooster

.
gonna try an Over - 56.5
Youngstown St. vs. Ohio State

OSU went over that total 11-2 last year_____________________early game 12:00 et

.
link to original post

Based on OSU's offensive performance last week I wouldn't be confident of that over. Is former OSU coach Tressel still the president of Youngstown St?
link to original post

good point
not sure about Tressel
pretty sure Youngstown St. is weaker than Indiana who they played last week - OSU is 41.5 pt. faves
they're home this week - were away last week - guessing they want to please the home crowd with many TDs
Youngstown St. scored 52 last week - of course against a much weaker team
wouldn't say I'm confident - just taking a flyer

.
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Don't et me wrong, I don't think it is a bad bet. The Buckeyes might score 56 or more by themselves. They said they are playing both QB's today so that should be good for the over.

There are some good morning games that I look forward to watching:

Notre Dame vs NC State
Utah vs Baylor
Nebraska vs Colorado

Those are all noon games.

I was skeptical of Shadeur Sanders accolades after last weeks performance but after watching him today he may be a legitimate Heisman candidate.

I got lucky. +600 odds bet on both Allen and Rodgers to be under 274.5 yards. Had two other bets including positive results for Rodgers. Both lost of course, but both sportsbooks (Caesars, DraftKings) gave me free bets for those losses. And to add to my luck, I hit a 3 leg parlay with the Caesars free bet! DK must have lost a ton on that game. It was also an ‘up 10 auto win’ game. So EVERY ML bet on that game was a player win. As per usual, I took the underdog and cashed at +120.

Jets win and their Super Bowl odds go from 18-1 to 66-1.
I would bet against Aaron Rodgers ever playing again in the NFL.

I hit the Monday night game as well for 11 out of 11. Obviously skill.

I could not do that! Often times (and definitely Monday Night) I had +EV bets on both sides of an outcome. Using boosts/offers of course.

Last night hit on BR ‘player to hit a HR’ promo. I virtually always take Freddy Freeman. You get a bonus bet back if he doesn’t hit HR but hits double or triple. I still get reasonable odds (+400 yesterday) on the HR. He may set a MLB record for doubles this year. Above my pay grade to figure out how +the EV is, but I know it is +.

Quote: SOOPOO

I could not do that! Often times (and definitely Monday Night) I had +EV bets on both sides of an outcome. Using boosts/offers of course.

Last night hit on BR ‘player to hit a HR’ promo. I virtually always take Freddy Freeman. You get a bonus bet back if he doesn’t hit HR but hits double or triple. I still get reasonable odds (+400 yesterday) on the HR. He may set a MLB record for doubles this year. Above my pay grade to figure out how +the EV is, but I know it is +.
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I'm using freebets and deposit bonuses as well.

Sweet…. Yesterday 4 teams took 10 point lead. And lost. So both sides win in DK promo. I’m had Cardinals! But to make it sweeter….. I had Giants ML as 4th leg of 4 leg parlay! Cha ching!
I hit almost everything…. Just wrong on Chargers.

Tonight I have Najee Harris over 7.5 yards receiving to finish another parlay. The line is now 11.5. I’m going to hedge at under 11.5. So I’ll be the only one watching the game hoping for Harris to get 8-11 yards receiving.

I think I’ll be betting under in the rest of the Jets games this year.

I think I know why you are betting parlays. I am 'forced' to as well .... well, actually sometimes I do a 2 leg parlay to turn two -xxx bets into, say, +150 parlays. Working out for me, I hope it's smart.

I hate 4 leg parlays, 3 legs is bad enough.

There is a great game on Saturday night at midnight. New Mexico St vs Hawaii (-2). I think everyone loves the late Hawaii games to make up for their losses on the other 100 games that day.

Update on my online sportsbetting:

BetMGM is still treating me OK, with continued evidence they may have pegged me for someone to give limited offers … still, there are those they give to everybody. And I’m a piker so I don’t care about the bet limits.

Draftkings came through with the bonus bets for depositing and betting $5. MLB had been the way to go all summer with BMGM but I bombed with it on my eight $25 bets, winning only one! But here came the offers. Various kinds, but including the sweet “no sweat” types. It was a good weekend for the “up 7/10 is a win” type offers too. My bad luck would have had to be ‘continued bad’ sure enough not to make out on all this. I guess these don’t hurt them, players don’t bet them right I’m sure. It’s not intuitive.

And DK just passed the Big Test. I cashed out almost every cent and after indicating it’d be a while before I got it, instead it appeared in my Paypal account in minutes. Test passed! If you’ve got Paypal, it really is the way to go with this. Fast, no fees.

Thanks to the Wizard who kindly answered my questions about the best way to bet these offers, featuring them on Ask the W youtube videos. I was kind of a pest for a while. Thanks also to Mission for his help as well.

Another good night (except for any bet that had Chubb in it). Best one was live Boost to +480 on Saints to win by 1-6. They were up 3 at the time in first half.
None yet but I wouldn’t be surprised if I get a few free bets on my Chubb bets.
Lots of bets on soccer today. I’m rooting for 2-1 win for Porto!

Quote: SOOPOO

Another good night (except for any bet that had Chubb in it). Best one was live Boost to +480 on Saints to win by 1-6. They were up 3 at the time in first half.
None yet but I wouldn’t be surprised if I get a few free bets on my Chubb bets.
Lots of bets on soccer today. I’m rooting for 2-1 win for Porto!
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3-1 was good too! Porto, over 2.5, both teams to score!

Today I have what I think is a hugely +EV bet that I expect to lose. Giants +410 ‘early win’. So if Giants go up 7 at any point they are considered to have won the game. Sometimes DK has up 7, sometimes up 10. As you can guess that’s a huge difference. I’m hoping for a Giants kickoff return for a TD to start the game!

It was not your imagination. I just heard Overs went 14-2 last week. Ouch.

with the up 7

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SOOPOO

Another good night (except for any bet that had Chubb in it). Best one was live Boost to +480 on Saints to win by 1-6. They were up 3 at the time in first half.
None yet but I wouldn’t be surprised if I get a few free bets on my Chubb bets.
Lots of bets on soccer today. I’m rooting for 2-1 win for Porto!
link to original post

3-1 was good too! Porto, over 2.5, both teams to score!

Today I have what I think is a hugely +EV bet that I expect to lose. Giants +410 ‘early win’. So if Giants go up 7 at any point they are considered to have won the game. Sometimes DK has up 7, sometimes up 10. As you can guess that’s a huge difference. I’m hoping for a Giants kickoff return for a TD to start the game!
link to original post

+410 with the up 7 win is fantastic. Hopefully they get the ball and score first.

I have a slight lean toward Coastal Carolina -5 tonight

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SOOPOO

Another good night (except for any bet that had Chubb in it). Best one was live Boost to +480 on Saints to win by 1-6. They were up 3 at the time in first half.
None yet but I wouldn’t be surprised if I get a few free bets on my Chubb bets.
Lots of bets on soccer today. I’m rooting for 2-1 win for Porto!
link to original post

3-1 was good too! Porto, over 2.5, both teams to score!

Today I have what I think is a hugely +EV bet that I expect to lose. Giants +410 ‘early win’. So if Giants go up 7 at any point they are considered to have won the game. Sometimes DK has up 7, sometimes up 10. As you can guess that’s a huge difference. I’m hoping for a Giants kickoff return for a TD to start the game!
link to original post

They'd blow the XP.

So many good football games today. Definitely the best week so far this year. There are at least 10 games that I would like to watch but unfortunately I have to go to a wedding. Hopefully I can catch the late games.

BTW, what kind of a moron schedules their wedding on a Saturday during football season. I lose a lot of respect for them.

a good start to a marriage is putting your foot down about football!

and hunting and fishing. That should be in the pre-nup like mine is [verbal prenup LOL]

Quote: odiousgambit

a good start to a marriage is putting your foot down about football!

and hunting and fishing. That should be in the pre-nup like mine is [verbal prenup LOL]
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A good spouse will not require putting a foot down as they should knowingly refuse to do anything on a football Saturday. If they don't, they clearly are not the right spouse.

Mine encourages me to watch/bet(with an advantage) Football. She will watch if it's an important game to me, usually while multi-tasking.
She isn't going to sit and watch it all day long. She enjoys MMA and Boxing as well. She's definitely into value betting.

She highly encourages my fishing and enjoys camping and RVing. I haven't wanted to hunt since my teens since I don't enjoy killing animals.