Sports betting chatter
Quote: odiousgambitNHL .... betMGM had Hurricanes at +135 underdogs. I had to take that, plus dug into the 'other bets' and got a puck line bet too, Hurricanes -1.5 and +300 .... sweet!
Looks like the oddsmakers forgot Carolina was ahead in this series and got excited over how bad the Devils beat them this one game they won last time. I'm sure the betting was heavy too but I don't see it making the line move that much.
You know what though? One thing I've learned is the oddsmakers are eerily right on these things most of the time. Caught them wrong for once.
And I'm watching and the first thing that happens is a bad turnover and a Devils goal. Those eerily good oddsmakers were looming large for me in that moment LOL!
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I thought the same way you did! But I did you one better! I had the Canes in a parlay with Yankees -1.5. But also had Jack Hughes as first goal scorer in a separate bet. Both with odds boosts of course….
I’m wondering if the Celtics are happy they gave Mazzula that guaranteed contract. He can’t manage timeouts. And he can’t design a defense. And he can’t design an offense that is successful down the stretch of a tight game. (You can tell I’m a bitter gambler who had the Celtics last night….)
My boosted bet for today is Inter Milan to win. I think they are a soccer team…..
the poster Dan Druff at another forum -see link - had 123 MLB picks last year and won with an r.o.i. of 2.7%
this season he's got 48 picks with about a 14% r.o.i.
this guy definitely knows this sport
he makes picks almost every day
https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/showthread.php?7250-Dan-Druff-s-2023-MLB-picks&p=157423#post157423
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Better +EV bet for sure was Knicks win parlayed with Brunson over 24.5 points. At +250! (FanDuel). Knicks were slight favorites and Brunson was slight favorite to exceed 24.5. But those were as correlated outcomes as you could have.
Bet MGM also had +EV bet at +290 for Knicks -3.5, Randle and Brunson to hit 2 or more “3”s each. The o/u for their “3”s was 1.5. Another huge correlated parlay. Oilers -1.5 was another good one for me. More than made up for my ‘0 for baseball’ yesterday.
As of now few offers for me today. My favorite bet is Maxey over 19.5 Harden under 20.5. I think they are negatively correlated. I may also do the Maxey under/Harden over.
Quote: SOOPOO
As of now few offers for me today. My favorite bet is Maxey over 19.5 Harden under 20.5. I think they are negatively correlated. I may also do the Maxey under/Harden over.
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Maxey Harden parlay won. The rest of my bets all lost….
I’ve been looking for more of these correlated events that the books don’t seem to analyze appropriately. Today MGM has Knicks win/Brunson over 24.5. If the Knicks win 40 out of 100 of these game 6’s in Miami, Brunson scores over 24.5 in 35 of them at least. In the 60 they lose maybe he scores over 24.5 in 20 of them. I’m getting +350 on the parlay. Fair is probably between +250 and +300.
I'd really be surprised if it was clear it crossed. They stop the game and agonize over it, looking at every camera shot. It has to completely cross where you see white ice between the puck and the line. I recorded it and will go back and look at that again [I skipped most of the stoppage as usual the first time]. If my opinion changes I'll post about itQuote: DRichIt appears to me that the Leafs were the recipient of a bad call at the end of the second period. It sure looked like the replay showed the puck crossing the line for a goal.
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Quote: odiousgambitI'd really be surprised if it was clear it crossed. They stop the game and agonize over it, looking at every camera shot. It has to completely cross where you see white ice between the puck and the line. I recorded it and will go back and look at that again [I skipped most of the stoppage as usual the first time]. If my opinion changes I'll post about itQuote: DRichIt appears to me that the Leafs were the recipient of a bad call at the end of the second period. It sure looked like the replay showed the puck crossing the line for a goal.
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It is obvious that it completely crossed the line when watching the slow motion replay. Today the refs are agreeing but are saying that they blew the whistle and stopped play before it crossed.
yes, if anyone recorded this, you can see a discussion in the 2nd intermission. With replay you can't hear the whistle, but these guys are saying there is no way the goalie would have started to get up unless he heard it. It's when he gets up that the puck is seen to cross the line.Quote: DRichIt is obvious that it completely crossed the line when watching the slow motion replay. Today the refs are agreeing but are saying that they blew the whistle and stopped play before it crossed.
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My -EV bet that I like is Harris over 12.5 points. I think Boston overcommits to slowing down Embiid leaving Harris open more than usual.
My year long Maple Leafs to win the Cup and Knicks to with the NBA are finally dead…..
I do have a ‘free bet’ on the Hurricanes.
Quote: SOOPOOFanDuel has +EV bet today. Celts ML/Brown over 19.5 points/Tatum over 5.5 Rebounds. At +175. The second two legs are extremely correlated with the first leg. Celts win the game over 70% of the time. And in the vast majority of those wins the other two events hit. I like the over for both Brown and Tatum as in a game 7 I expect them to get more than their usual playing time. I’d guess fair value is around +125 and I’m getting +175.
My -EV bet that I like is Harris over 12.5 points. I think Boston overcommits to slowing down Embiid leaving Harris open more than usual.
You crushed it!!! Great job.
Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOFanDuel has +EV bet today. Celts ML/Brown over 19.5 points/Tatum over 5.5 Rebounds. At +175. The second two legs are extremely correlated with the first leg. Celts win the game over 70% of the time. And in the vast majority of those wins the other two events hit. I like the over for both Brown and Tatum as in a game 7 I expect them to get more than their usual playing time. I’d guess fair value is around +125 and I’m getting +175.
My -EV bet that I like is Harris over 12.5 points. I think Boston overcommits to slowing down Embiid leaving Harris open more than usual.
You crushed it!!! Great job.
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Thanks! I ended up also getting Harris over 14.5 at +175 on FanDuel. I wasn’t sure how high to go! He scored 19.
Mets pitcher has given up at least 4 runs in each of his last 4 starts. And has season ERA just under 8. Nats pitcher has given up 3 or less in each of his last 4 starts. Season ERA under 5.
Mets have been slightly better team with a few more wins than the Nats so far.
So small bet on the over. Small bet on the Nats. And using one of my free bets on the parlay.
Do you like parlays or is it a matter of being connected to offers?Quote: SOOPOOToday my probably -EV bets involve Mets/Nationals. I’ve been looking at ‘recent form’ for pitchers. I can get Nationals +136 and over 9.5 runs at -105. And best parlay is +370.
Mets pitcher has given up at least 4 runs in each of his last 4 starts. And has season ERA just under 8. Nats pitcher has given up 3 or less in each of his last 4 starts. Season ERA under 5.
Mets have been slightly better team with a few more wins than the Nats so far.
So small bet on the over. Small bet on the Nats. And using one of my free bets on the parlay.
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Quote: odiousgambitDo you like parlays or is it a matter of being connected to offers?Quote: SOOPOOToday my probably -EV bets involve Mets/Nationals. I’ve been looking at ‘recent form’ for pitchers. I can get Nationals +136 and over 9.5 runs at -105. And best parlay is +370.
Mets pitcher has given up at least 4 runs in each of his last 4 starts. And has season ERA just under 8. Nats pitcher has given up 3 or less in each of his last 4 starts. Season ERA under 5.
Mets have been slightly better team with a few more wins than the Nats so far.
So small bet on the over. Small bet on the Nats. And using one of my free bets on the parlay.
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Mostly connected to offers. Some require a parlay that finished at +400 or longer. Some require each leg to be no shorter than -200. My favorite offer is ‘get a free bet back if you win 3 of 4’. On those I’ll take 3 heavy favorites with one slight underdog.
But also for any ‘free bet’ you want to maximize EV you need to make a bet with + odds. I tend to like between +300 and +1000.
One of the websites gave me a ‘detailed summary’ of my bets since I joined. I was stunned at my ROI. On this one site for every $6 I’ve bet I’ve received $7 back. At tad under 17% ROI. Too bad there are max’s on these offers!
Quote: SOOPOOToday my probably -EV bets involve Mets/Nationals. I’ve been looking at ‘recent form’ for pitchers. I can get Nationals +136 and over 9.5 runs at -105. And best parlay is +370.
Mets pitcher has given up at least 4 runs in each of his last 4 starts. And has season ERA just under 8. Nats pitcher has given up 3 or less in each of his last 4 starts. Season ERA under 5.
Mets have been slightly better team with a few more wins than the Nats so far.
So small bet on the over. Small bet on the Nats. And using one of my free bets on the parlay.
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Another good win! It went down exactly as I guessed! I’ve also been racking up $$ betting against the A’s virtual every day. They are likely to end up historically bad.
I have a season long bet on Judge to lead MLB in homers. He was trailing by a few before he went on injured list. I figured that was $$ down the drain. His 4 home runs the last two games at least have him back in the conversation.
I find too that the sites like to make offers around parlays. This made me suspicious, so I did the math and found they are NOT altering the odds to make it better for them than betting each bet only. So I really don't know why the sites like parlays. Plus why not -400 instead of +400? shouldn't matter, except with free bets it is better for them at -400!!Quote: SOOPOOQuote: odiousgambitDo you like parlays or is it a matter of being connected to offers?Quote: SOOPOOToday my probably -EV bets involve Mets/Nationals. I’ve been looking at ‘recent form’ for pitchers. I can get Nationals +136 and over 9.5 runs at -105. And best parlay is +370.
Mets pitcher has given up at least 4 runs in each of his last 4 starts. And has season ERA just under 8. Nats pitcher has given up 3 or less in each of his last 4 starts. Season ERA under 5.
Mets have been slightly better team with a few more wins than the Nats so far.
So small bet on the over. Small bet on the Nats. And using one of my free bets on the parlay.
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Mostly connected to offers. Some require a parlay that finished at +400 or longer. Some require each leg to be no shorter than -200. My favorite offer is ‘get a free bet back if you win 3 of 4’. On those I’ll take 3 heavy favorites with one slight underdog.
But also for any ‘free bet’ you want to maximize EV you need to make a bet with + odds. I tend to like between +300 and +1000.
One of the websites gave me a ‘detailed summary’ of my bets since I joined. I was stunned at my ROI. On this one site for every $6 I’ve bet I’ve received $7 back. At tad under 17% ROI. Too bad there are max’s on these offers!
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I agree the trick with free bets is the + odds. In theory the higher the better, perhaps exponentially. The attending variance is too hard to take for me though. +400 is in fact about as high as I go
Analyze all you want. Or make your bets randomly with zero analysis. You’ll end up losing the same amount of moneyQuote: SOOPOOToday my probably -EV bets involve Mets/Nationals. I’ve been looking at ‘recent form’ for pitchers. I can get Nationals +136 and over 9.5 runs at -105. And best parlay is +370.
Mets pitcher has given up at least 4 runs in each of his last 4 starts. And has season ERA just under 8. Nats pitcher has given up 3 or less in each of his last 4 starts. Season ERA under 5.
Mets have been slightly better team with a few more wins than the Nats so far.
So small bet on the over. Small bet on the Nats. And using one of my free bets on the parlay.
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Quote: Ace2Analyze all you want. Or make your bets randomly with zero analysis. You’ll end up losing the same amount of moneyQuote: SOOPOOToday my probably -EV bets involve Mets/Nationals. I’ve been looking at ‘recent form’ for pitchers. I can get Nationals +136 and over 9.5 runs at -105. And best parlay is +370.
Mets pitcher has given up at least 4 runs in each of his last 4 starts. And has season ERA just under 8. Nats pitcher has given up 3 or less in each of his last 4 starts. Season ERA under 5.
Mets have been slightly better team with a few more wins than the Nats so far.
So small bet on the over. Small bet on the Nats. And using one of my free bets on the parlay.
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LOL. My guesses likely only alter how much I’m making. It really is so easy to utilize the boosts/free bets/offers that I am surprised they still offer them. If I was only betting on the exact plays my analysis leads me to, then at least for now I’d probably agree with you. I’ve probably just been lucky.
Had a boost on Champions League. Last game Inter easily beat AC Milan. I got plus odds on them to do it again. They did.
I like Guardians tonight. Same pitching stuff. Their pitcher hasn’t given up over 3 runs last 8 games. Opposing pitcher only has 1 of last 8 giving up less than 4, and it was 3. They are tiny favorites. Also like Cubs for same general reason at +152. They are playing better team (Astros) but the Cubs pitcher has been great.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: Ace2Analyze all you want. Or make your bets randomly with zero analysis. You’ll end up losing the same amount of moneyQuote: SOOPOOToday my probably -EV bets involve Mets/Nationals. I’ve been looking at ‘recent form’ for pitchers. I can get Nationals +136 and over 9.5 runs at -105. And best parlay is +370.
Mets pitcher has given up at least 4 runs in each of his last 4 starts. And has season ERA just under 8. Nats pitcher has given up 3 or less in each of his last 4 starts. Season ERA under 5.
Mets have been slightly better team with a few more wins than the Nats so far.
So small bet on the over. Small bet on the Nats. And using one of my free bets on the parlay.
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LOL. My guesses likely only alter how much I’m making. It really is so easy to utilize the boosts/free bets/offers that I am surprised they still offer them. If I was only betting on the exact plays my analysis leads me to, then at least for now I’d probably agree with you. I’ve probably just been lucky.
Had a boost on Champions League. Last game Inter easily beat AC Milan. I got plus odds on them to do it again. They did.
I like Guardians tonight. Same pitching stuff. Their pitcher hasn’t given up over 3 runs last 8 games. Opposing pitcher only has 1 of last 8 giving up less than 4, and it was 3. They are tiny favorites. Also like Cubs for same general reason at +152. They are playing better team (Astros) but the Cubs pitcher has been great.
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My Guardians/under 8.5/Bieber over 4.5 K’s/ parlay lost all 3 legs. My Cubs/Astros parlay also went down. Had Yankees/O 8.5/ Guerrero u 1.5 hits that hit. Each was $10. So total win was $38. Plus I’ll get the $10 free bet from BetRivers for making those 3 bets. Last night made lots on the Nuggets/Lakers offers. BetMGM Lions boost was James/Davis o 24.5 at +425! DraftKings had Jokic o 24.5/James o 19.5 at plus odds! FanDuel let me parlay James 25/8/8 at +700! The only bet I got wrong was Murray under. News reports had him as being ‘under the weather’. He played great and looked ‘over the weather’. Oh yeah, BetRivers also had +140 on at least 3 players to have double doubles. There were four as Porter had 10 rebounds to go with the usual suspects James, Davis, and Jokic.
BetMgm got on the wrong side of a Virginia Attorney with their offer of a deceptive promo
he made a very big stink and BetMgm offered him a $12K settlement
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/05/17/betmgm-risk-free-bets/
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Let's hope it doesn't backfire and they stop offering good promotions.Quote: lilredrooster.
BetMgm got on the wrong side of a Virginia Attorney with their offer of a deceptive promo
he made a very big stink and BetMgm offered him a $12K settlement
.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/05/17/betmgm-risk-free-bets/
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Quote: AxelWolfLet's hope it doesn't backfire and they stop offering good promotions.Quote: lilredrooster.
BetMgm got on the wrong side of a Virginia Attorney with their offer of a deceptive promo
he made a very big stink and BetMgm offered him a $12K settlement
.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/05/17/betmgm-risk-free-bets/
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I doubt that will happen due to the fierce competition
words are amazing and can be twisted in all kinds of ways - they will be able to use the twisting of words to block any legal challenge
that is their hook - offer an unpredictable (usually) bet with some small kind of bonus that gets the fish on the line with + EV by a small amount on just one bet
most fish will not be able to get off of that hook - will bet much more with - EV - only a very few - like yourself - will figure out how to make their entire experience + EV
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instead, I seem to be getting pure freebets where you keep only the winnings. They seem to be based on theoretical loss. Additionally, there is an occasional offer where you get half your bet as a bonus but 'win or lose' for that and they don't call it 'risk free' which always seemed to me to be asking for trouble.
all these operators , as if they all come from the offshore learning experience where you could do anything you want and anybody who didn't like it could go kiss their posterior.
twitter has it too https://twitter.com/dcsportsbog/status/1658825360484474880
I lost a bunch yesterday. Most parlays included Davis over 20. And James over 25. I did guess right on Hachimura’s big night, but needed him to get two assists. His what should have been 2nd assist was a sweet pass inside to Davis, but Davis was mauled and just got foul shots but no basket. That’s gambling…
Today I’m taking Astros over A’s. Giving 2.5 runs. And over 9.5. Both have shitty pitchers starting. I’m hoping the far better Astros batters make the difference even though they’ll only get 8 innings of hitting to the A’s 9.
My -EV bets will have Heat +9. They looked like they were on the same level as the Celts last game. It didn’t look like a fluke. Also took the over. If close as I expect, one team tends to foul at the end to ‘extend the game’.
Quote: SOOPOO
Today I’m taking Astros over A’s. Giving 2.5 runs. And over 9.5. Both have shitty pitchers starting. I’m hoping the far better Astros batters make the difference even though they’ll only get 8 innings of hitting to the A’s 9.
My -EV bets will have Heat +9. They looked like they were on the same level as the Celts last game. It didn’t look like a fluke. Also took the over. If close as I expect, one team tends to foul at the end to ‘extend the game’.
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Not enough runs. Astros easily won though. Heat/over hit exactly as I had hoped. Heat hit just enough foul shots at the end to make the over by 1/2 point! Best correlated parlay that hit for me was Heat ML/ Adebayo over 19.5. At around 7-1. I lost two separate parlays…. Needed Brown to hit two threes; he had one. Needed Smart to have 4 assists; he had 3. With seconds to go Smart passes to Brown for an open 3…. Rims out….. That’s gambling….
DraftKings has daily parlay offer that if you lose you get a free bet. So take long shot parlays. Sometimes silly ones. Last night Mets/YRFI/over 9.5/ Nimmo/Baty/Rosario hits…. Paid 14-1…. No free bet!
Quote: avianrandyA coworker tonight told me he had a $26 wager on the Lakers game. He had everything correct except one guy needed to score 30 points and he only scored 25. Wager would have paid $9,008.31 since the guy only scored 25 he got zero. He said he may not have came to work had he won the bet. He was heartbroken this was on FanDuel
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I never make bets like that
the frustration factor is too great
in racing guys go for years without hitting the Pick 6
then they'll hit it - a gigantic score and go way up lifetime
except the IRS will then take a lot and then their State will take more - usually - they can only deduct their losses from that year - not from prior years
not for me - not looking for gigantic scores - but each to his own
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Heat/Butler over 24.5 at +200. I think they are both +EV so I bet both.
Quote: SOOPOOInteresting offers tonight. I have two directly opposite correlated parlays. Celtics/Tatum over 29.5 at +290
Heat/Butler over 24.5 at +200. I think they are both +EV so I bet both.
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$50 limit so win $145 and lose $50 for profit of $95. Paid for dinner…
I think Nuggets beat either East team.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SOOPOOInteresting offers tonight. I have two directly opposite correlated parlays. Celtics/Tatum over 29.5 at +290
Heat/Butler over 24.5 at +200. I think they are both +EV so I bet both.
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$50 limit so win $145 and lose $50 for profit of $95. Paid for dinner…
I think Nuggets beat either East team.
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The 1976 Nuggets may be my second favorite pro team, just behind the Knicks of the early 1970s.
David Thompson, Bobby Jones, Dan Issell, Marvin Webster, Byron Beck, Gus Gerald and a young coach named Larry Brown.
Quote: billryan
The 1976 Nuggets may be my second favorite pro team, just behind the Knicks of the early 1970s.
David Thompson,
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my h.s. teammate got a full hoops scholarship to NC State and was on the floor with him his freshman and sophomore years
he was just a scrub - and screwed up and left college before they got their Championship
David was already a legend in h.s. way before he entered college
at NC State they called him DDT - Dazzling David Thompson
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Quote: billryan
The 1976 Nuggets may be my second favorite pro team, just behind the Knicks of the early 1970s.
David Thompson, Bobby Jones, Dan Issell, Marvin Webster, Byron Beck, Gus Gerald and a young coach named Larry Brown.
I am very skeptical. I can't believe that Larry Brown was ever young.
But I will say it seems to me the dark side doesn't understand that when they insist on taking bets that are not lay bets in their promotions, especially, uh, well, do the math dudes
Players don't like the variance they experience with the +400 bet that the rules insist on in parlays, for instance. So that means the darkside *does* like it for what seems like the same reason... a decision based on variance. I just marvel at that especially in promotions.
BetMGM has a Stastny goal/Hurricanes win at +575 as its lions boost. Just going to any other site and using the SGP there you get way more than +575. The ‘boost’ is a faux boost.
okay, so FanDuel has a $2500 no sweat first bet promo - up to $2500
so let's say you make an even money bet on the money line and let's say for example purposes you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
and if you lose that bet you make another even money bet on the money line $2500 bet with the bonus money and you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
I was trying to figure out the edge have if you do that promo - I couldn't figure it out - I started getting dizzy trying to think about it
can someone help me out - tell me what the edge to the player is and how to figure it - thanks
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odds of winning times amount to win ... minus odds of losing times amount to lose ... is always the formula. Admittedly, not quite as simple due to second chance, so the below might be wrong but this is my 2 cents. Hopefully you get more inputQuote: lilredrooster.
okay, so FanDuel has a $2500 no sweat first bet promo - up to $2500
so let's say you make an even money bet on the money line and let's say for example purposes you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
and if you lose that bet you make another even money bet on the money line $2500 bet with the bonus money and you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
I was trying to figure out the edge have if you do that promo - I couldn't figure it out - I started getting dizzy trying to think about it
can someone help me out - tell me what the edge to the player is and how to figure it - thanks
.
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taking your scenario as you pitched it:
flat bet: 50% chance of winning $2500
25% chance of winning the second bet making you even .... zero value. Assumes not get initial amnt bet back.
25% chance of losing both bets -2500
net of the above $625 [EV]
625/2500= 25% player advantage
betting at higher odds both bets say +200 meaning 1 in 3 chance of winning paying fair odds 2 to 1
33% win $5000
33% win 5000-2500 , net 2500
33% lose 2500
$1650/2500 = 66% player advantage .... I think this is right, needs check
if you take even higher odds, even more player advantage
the risk of losing it all goes from 25% to 33% in the above scenario .... there's the rub
Quote: lilredrooster.
okay, so FanDuel has a $2500 no sweat first bet promo - up to $2500
so let's say you make an even money bet on the money line and let's say for example purposes you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
and if you lose that bet you make another even money bet on the money line $2500 bet with the bonus money and you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
I was trying to figure out the edge have if you do that promo - I couldn't figure it out - I started getting dizzy trying to think about it
can someone help me out - tell me what the edge to the player is and how to figure it - thanks
.
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The math is easy to do if there was a 50% chance of winning a bet they pay even money on. The complication is that for a bet you have a 50% chance of winning you only get paid around $2270. If you lose and make the same bet with the bonus bet and you win you end up with just $2270 from your initial $2500.
50%. +$2270
25%. -$230
25%. $-2500
Total+EV. +452.50.
As mentioned, this is NOT even close to the best way to do this from an EV standpoint. You would want to take underdogs both on the initial bet, and even more so on the bonus bet if you post the initial bet.
I think you are saying that you will not get paid fair odds, but paid after vig taken. My example above shows getting paid fair odds which is not going to happen unless the oddsmaker has failed his jobQuote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
okay, so FanDuel has a $2500 no sweat first bet promo - up to $2500
so let's say you make an even money bet on the money line and let's say for example purposes you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
and if you lose that bet you make another even money bet on the money line $2500 bet with the bonus money and you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
I was trying to figure out the edge have if you do that promo - I couldn't figure it out - I started getting dizzy trying to think about it
can someone help me out - tell me what the edge to the player is and how to figure it - thanks
.
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The math is easy to do if there was a 50% chance of winning a bet they pay even money on. The complication is that for a bet you have a 50% chance of winning you only get paid around $2270.
Quote:If you lose and make the same bet with the bonus bet and you win you end up with just $2270 from your initial $2500.
50%. +$2270
25%. -$230
25%. $-2500
Total+EV. +452.50.
As mentioned, this is NOT even close to the best way to do this from an EV standpoint. You would want to take underdogs both on the initial bet, and even more so on the bonus bet if you post the initial bet.
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452.50/2500 = 18.1% player advantage
Soopoo can you [or someone] tell me if I did the math right for a +200 bet and re-bet? That is, outside of the incorrect assumption that it would pay fair odds
Quote: odiousgambitodds of winning times amount to win ... minus odds of losing times amount to lose ... is always the formula. Admittedly, not quite as simple due to second chance, so the below might be wrong but this is my 2 cents. Hopefully you get more inputQuote: lilredrooster.
okay, so FanDuel has a $2500 no sweat first bet promo - up to $2500
so let's say you make an even money bet on the money line and let's say for example purposes you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
and if you lose that bet you make another even money bet on the money line $2500 bet with the bonus money and you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
I was trying to figure out the edge have if you do that promo - I couldn't figure it out - I started getting dizzy trying to think about it
can someone help me out - tell me what the edge to the player is and how to figure it - thanks
.
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taking your scenario as you pitched it:
flat bet: 50% chance of winning $2500
25% chance of winning the second bet making you even .... zero value. Assumes not get initial amnt bet back.
25% chance of losing both bets -2500
net of the above $625 [EV]
625/2500= 25% player advantage
betting at higher odds both bets say +200 meaning 1 in 3 chance of winning paying fair odds 2 to 1
33% win $5000
33% win 5000-2500 , net 2500
33% lose 2500
$1650/2500 = 66% player advantage .... I think this is right, needs check
if you take even higher odds, even more player advantage
the risk of losing it all goes from 25% to 33% in the above scenario .... there's the rub
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Your second example I believe is incorrect.
Should be 1/3 win $5k
4/9 lose $2.5k
2/9 win $2.5k.
EV is +1,111 (rounded).
Remember , you ‘lose it all’ 2/3 x 2/3 which is 4/9, not 1/3.
the benefit of avoiding even money bets is clear even when doing it wrong! Even worse, they might encourage you to play it even safer, ouch!
yet while in the middle of selecting bets I do keep thinking about that I'm increasing the chances of losing as I get better EV. Even now when I'm getting that type offer repeated, which is exactly what you want!
Quote: odiousgambit
the benefit of avoiding even money bets is clear even when doing it wrong! Even worse, they might encourage you to play it even safer, ouch!
yet while in the middle of selecting bets I do keep thinking about that I'm increasing the chances of losing as I get better EV. Even now when I'm getting that type offer repeated, which is exactly what you want!
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point well taken
so the EV goes up at the odds go up
so at odds such as 7/1 the EV must be very high if the player has a decent bet
at some point the player has to think about the chance of hitting as being so remote that they don't want to do it even though it's high EV
but what is that point_______?
I guess it's a subjective decision
.
If I think it is going to be a repeating offer, +400 is still about all the variance I can take. I usually go for less odds than that. YMMVQuote: lilredrooster
point well taken
so the EV goes up at the odds go up
so at odds such as 7/1 the EV must be very high if the player has a decent bet
at some point the player has to think about the chance of hitting as being so remote that they don't want to do it even though it's high EV
but what is that point_______?
I guess it's a subjective decision
.
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If it is a one-time offer for a large amount, like in what you described, not to be repeated, you'd have to forgive me for not going over +200 ... and I'd have to pick an amount less than $2500 I think. I could afford more, but I couldn't take the pain of kicking myself if I lost it
Quote: odiousgambitIf I think it is going to be a repeating offer, +400 is still about all the variance I can take. I usually go for less odds than that. YMMVQuote: lilredrooster
point well taken
so the EV goes up at the odds go up
so at odds such as 7/1 the EV must be very high if the player has a decent bet
at some point the player has to think about the chance of hitting as being so remote that they don't want to do it even though it's high EV
but what is that point_______?
I guess it's a subjective decision
.
link to original post
If it is a one-time offer for a large amount, like in what you described, not to be repeated, you'd have to forgive me for not going over +200 ... and I'd have to pick an amount less than $2500 I think. I could afford more, but I couldn't take the pain of kicking myself if I lost it
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It’s not hard to take a guaranteed profit if you are willing to give up a significant amount of EV. Let’s say the offer is 1,000 bonus bet if you lose. On the book with the offer bet $1k at -110. So either win $910 or lose $1000 but get $1000 in bets.
On another site bet $$700 on the other team to win $640.
So if team 1 wins you are up $210
If team 2 wins you are down $360 but have $1000 in free bets which is very easy to turn into $400+.
When I had this opportunity for $5k if you look at the main site and compare odds to other sites it wasn’t hard to find better odds, like -105 on both sides.
Heck, there are members here who would pay you $500 to use your account. The EV for the offer maximized certainly exceeds $1500.
Seems like an opportunity for Mission to figure out how +EV this is? I’m guessing 15-20%?
Quote: SOOPOOMost recent +EV offer is similar to ones offered for NBA and NFL. For MLB you now will be credited with a win on a money line bet if your team goes up 2 runs at any time. My plan is to bet biggest underdog road team. I think you would want the team batting first as a general rule.
Seems like an opportunity for Mission to figure out how +EV this is? I’m guessing 15-20%?
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A’s +200. Up two early. Cha-Ching!
Cha-ching ........................ for the House!
It used to be that you could earn max of 2 tier credits for every $1 you bet on long odds. At the low end of the spectrum, you had to bet $5 to get 1 tier credit (eg if you were betting -500)
I noticed my credit accumulation going down and FAQ page now says the following. Now the best you can get is 1 tier credit for every $10 wagered (aka 10 for $100).
“ Earn up to 10 Reward Credits and 10 Tier Credits for every $100 wagered on straight bets.*
Earn up to 20 Reward Credits and 20 Tier Credits for every $100 wagered on parlays.*
*Maximum Reward Credit and Tier Credit earning rate is for straight bets with -300 odds (or longer) and parlay bets with +200 odds (or longer).Wagers with shorter odds will have lower earning rates.”
Quote: TinManHas anyone else noticed Caesar’s giving fewer tier credits for online sports bets than they used to? I think this is a recent change.
It used to be that you could earn max of 2 tier credits for every $1 you bet on long odds. At the low end of the spectrum, you had to bet $5 to get 1 tier credit (eg if you were betting -500)
I noticed my credit accumulation going down and FAQ page now says the following. Now the best you can get is 1 tier credit for every $10 wagered (aka 10 for $100).
“ Earn up to 10 Reward Credits and 10 Tier Credits for every $100 wagered on straight bets.*
Earn up to 20 Reward Credits and 20 Tier Credits for every $100 wagered on parlays.*
*Maximum Reward Credit and Tier Credit earning rate is for straight bets with -300 odds (or longer) and parlay bets with +200 odds (or longer).Wagers with shorter odds will have lower earning rates.”
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Thank you! I noticed I was getting none for most of my bets! Where I used to get 1 or 2 per bet. Barring a surprise this will unfortunately be my last year at Diamond then….
You saved me an agonizing chat with customer service…
I do have a casino trip planned so I’ll get some tier credit there but table games don’t give much.
