Poll

4 votes (30.76%)
9 votes (69.23%)
2 votes (15.38%)
2 votes (15.38%)
3 votes (23.07%)
1 vote (7.69%)
4 votes (30.76%)
1 vote (7.69%)
1 vote (7.69%)
1 vote (7.69%)

13 members have voted

Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1428
  • Posts: 24476
February 4th, 2022 at 8:12:15 AM permalink
The topic of Super Bowl 56 prop bets have already been touched on in the SUPER BOWL LVI - ESTIMATED ODDS... thread. However, I think the topic merits its own thread. Let's save the other thread for discussion of the game in general, especially the game winner and total points.

That said, let me introduce the 2022 William Hill Prop Packet. This is a 14-page PDF document of their props and what are probably their opening lines.

The question for the poll is which props will you probably bet?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 217
  • Posts: 13347
Thanks for this post from:
DJTeddyBear
February 4th, 2022 at 9:06:16 AM permalink
Overtime, safety, 2pt conversion.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1428
  • Posts: 24476
February 4th, 2022 at 9:55:13 AM permalink
Let's start with a bet I often make, over/under 3.5 field goals scored in game.

The William Hill lines (see prop 287) are:

Over 3.5 +120
Under 3.5 -140

The following table shows the average number of field goals made per season the last three seasons.

Season Games played Field goals made Field goals per game
2021 272 874 3.213235
2020 256 812 3.171875
2019 256 802 3.132813
Total 784 2488 3.173469


Source: ESPN.

Note the average field goals per game increases by 0.04 per season. That said, I'm going to use the 2021 season average of 3.213235294 as the average for the Super Bowl.

The following table shows the probability of any given number of field goals, assuming the total follows the Poisson distribution. In other words, assuming the time between field goals follows the exponential distribution.

Field goals Probability
0 0.040226259
1 0.129256434
2 0.207665668
3 0.222426218
4 0.178676944
5 0.114826212
6 0.06149394
7 0.028227785
8 0.011337815
9 0.004047896
10+ 0.001814828


Adding the probabilities for 0 to 3, we get a probability of under 3.5 of 0.59957458. That makes the fair line on the under -150. That said, saying -140 I would say is a good bet. If you wait, you may find better than that as the square bettors love to bet the over on EVERY prop.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 3544
February 4th, 2022 at 9:58:21 AM permalink
Wiz, shouldn’t your analysis use median field goals per game rather than mean field goals per game with an assumed Poisson?

Maybe median data not very available?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1428
  • Posts: 24476
February 4th, 2022 at 10:00:15 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Wiz, shouldn’t your analysis use median field goals per game rather than mean field goals per game with an assumed Poisson?

Maybe median data not very available?
link to original post



Point well taken, but I'm fine with the mean. Besides, I would probably have to look at every individual game to get the median.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1428
  • Posts: 24476
February 4th, 2022 at 10:08:44 AM permalink
Here is some data I'd like make a note of for future use.

Total safeties per regular season:

2021: 8
2020: 24
2019: 17
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy 
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 110
  • Posts: 5446
February 4th, 2022 at 10:12:56 AM permalink
There are three of them that I like:

Opening kickoff will not be a touchback (+170)

Last play of the game will not be a QB rush/keeper/kneeldown (+170)

There will not be four unanswered scores (conversions do not count as scores; safeties not on conversions do) (-320)

Also, throw a buck or two on:
Successful onside kick (+1100)
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 116
  • Posts: 8775
February 4th, 2022 at 11:03:00 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

There are three of them that I like:

Opening kickoff will not be a touchback (+170)

Last play of the game will not be a QB rush/keeper/kneeldown (+170)

There will not be four unanswered scores (conversions do not count as scores; safeties not on conversions do) (-320)

Also, throw a buck or two on:
Successful onside kick (+1100)
link to original post



Probably good news for you that I disagree on 3 of your picks.

1. Opening kick will be a touchback.
2. Kneeldown is how it ends.
3. I agree on no 4 unanswered scores. No big blowout here.
4. I will give you 11-1 odds on 'successful onsides kick'. The stupid new rules basically limiting your guys ability to line up on the side your kicker is kicking to makes it so hard for there to be a successful onside kick. I'll go as high as my $220 against your $20 if you want.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 116
  • Posts: 8775
February 4th, 2022 at 11:10:10 AM permalink
So Caesars has these offers...
1. Bet $100 on any SB same game parlay that gets to at least +1000, and if you win, in addition to your winnings you get an extra free bet of $560. You can only do this for your first SB parlay bet.

2. Bet $10 each on 10 separate SB props, with no extreme favorites (must be -130 as the biggest allowed favorite), and if you win 7 or more out of 10 you get your winnings and an extra free bet of $56.

I think the EV of 1 is probably only slightly positive with big variance, so I'm not sure if I'll be doing it.
I'll definitely be doing number 2 because it is probably a very small +EV bet, and also I'll love paying attention to the mess I'll have created.

I'm guessing betMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel will have opportunities as the game gets closer.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy 
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 110
  • Posts: 5446
February 4th, 2022 at 12:01:27 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

4. I will give you 11-1 odds on 'successful onsides kick'. The stupid new rules basically limiting your guys ability to line up on the side your kicker is kicking to makes it so hard for there to be a successful onside kick. I'll go as high as my $220 against your $20 if you want.


I never put my money where my mouth is - usually, I need to leave room in there for my foot.

  • Jump to: