Super Bowl 56 Prop Bets
Poll
 | 4 votes (30.76%) | ||
| | 9 votes (69.23%) | ||
| | 2 votes (15.38%) | ||
| | 2 votes (15.38%) | ||
| | 3 votes (23.07%) | ||
| | 1 vote (7.69%) | ||
| | 4 votes (30.76%) | ||
| | 1 vote (7.69%) | ||
| | 1 vote (7.69%) | ||
| | 1 vote (7.69%) |
13 members have voted
February 4th, 2022 at 8:12:15 AM
permalink
The topic of Super Bowl 56 prop bets have already been touched on in the SUPER BOWL LVI - ESTIMATED ODDS... thread. However, I think the topic merits its own thread. Let's save the other thread for discussion of the game in general, especially the game winner and total points.
That said, let me introduce the 2022 William Hill Prop Packet. This is a 14-page PDF document of their props and what are probably their opening lines.
The question for the poll is which props will you probably bet?
That said, let me introduce the 2022 William Hill Prop Packet. This is a 14-page PDF document of their props and what are probably their opening lines.
The question for the poll is which props will you probably bet?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 4th, 2022 at 9:06:16 AM
permalink
Overtime, safety, 2pt conversion.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
February 4th, 2022 at 9:55:13 AM
permalink
Let's start with a bet I often make, over/under 3.5 field goals scored in game.
The William Hill lines (see prop 287) are:
Over 3.5 +120
Under 3.5 -140
The following table shows the average number of field goals made per season the last three seasons.
Source: ESPN.
Note the average field goals per game increases by 0.04 per season. That said, I'm going to use the 2021 season average of 3.213235294 as the average for the Super Bowl.
The following table shows the probability of any given number of field goals, assuming the total follows the Poisson distribution. In other words, assuming the time between field goals follows the exponential distribution.
Adding the probabilities for 0 to 3, we get a probability of under 3.5 of 0.59957458. That makes the fair line on the under -150. That said, saying -140 I would say is a good bet. If you wait, you may find better than that as the square bettors love to bet the over on EVERY prop.
The William Hill lines (see prop 287) are:
Over 3.5 +120
Under 3.5 -140
The following table shows the average number of field goals made per season the last three seasons.
| Season | Games played | Field goals made | Field goals per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 272 | 874 | 3.213235 |
| 2020 | 256 | 812 | 3.171875 |
| 2019 | 256 | 802 | 3.132813 |
| Total | 784 | 2488 | 3.173469 |
Source: ESPN.
Note the average field goals per game increases by 0.04 per season. That said, I'm going to use the 2021 season average of 3.213235294 as the average for the Super Bowl.
The following table shows the probability of any given number of field goals, assuming the total follows the Poisson distribution. In other words, assuming the time between field goals follows the exponential distribution.
| Field goals | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0 | 0.040226259 |
| 1 | 0.129256434 |
| 2 | 0.207665668 |
| 3 | 0.222426218 |
| 4 | 0.178676944 |
| 5 | 0.114826212 |
| 6 | 0.06149394 |
| 7 | 0.028227785 |
| 8 | 0.011337815 |
| 9 | 0.004047896 |
| 10+ | 0.001814828 |
Adding the probabilities for 0 to 3, we get a probability of under 3.5 of 0.59957458. That makes the fair line on the under -150. That said, saying -140 I would say is a good bet. If you wait, you may find better than that as the square bettors love to bet the over on EVERY prop.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 4th, 2022 at 9:58:21 AM
permalink
Wiz, shouldn’t your analysis use median field goals per game rather than mean field goals per game with an assumed Poisson?
Maybe median data not very available?
Maybe median data not very available?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 4th, 2022 at 10:00:15 AM
permalink
Quote: unJonWiz, shouldn’t your analysis use median field goals per game rather than mean field goals per game with an assumed Poisson?
Maybe median data not very available?
link to original post
Point well taken, but I'm fine with the mean. Besides, I would probably have to look at every individual game to get the median.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 4th, 2022 at 10:08:44 AM
permalink
Here is some data I'd like make a note of for future use.
Total safeties per regular season:
2021: 8
2020: 24
2019: 17
Total safeties per regular season:
2021: 8
2020: 24
2019: 17
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 4th, 2022 at 10:12:56 AM
permalink
There are three of them that I like:
Opening kickoff will not be a touchback (+170)
Last play of the game will not be a QB rush/keeper/kneeldown (+170)
There will not be four unanswered scores (conversions do not count as scores; safeties not on conversions do) (-320)
Also, throw a buck or two on:
Successful onside kick (+1100)
Opening kickoff will not be a touchback (+170)
Last play of the game will not be a QB rush/keeper/kneeldown (+170)
There will not be four unanswered scores (conversions do not count as scores; safeties not on conversions do) (-320)
Also, throw a buck or two on:
Successful onside kick (+1100)
February 4th, 2022 at 11:03:00 AM
permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuyThere are three of them that I like:
Opening kickoff will not be a touchback (+170)
Last play of the game will not be a QB rush/keeper/kneeldown (+170)
There will not be four unanswered scores (conversions do not count as scores; safeties not on conversions do) (-320)
Also, throw a buck or two on:
Successful onside kick (+1100)
link to original post
Probably good news for you that I disagree on 3 of your picks.
1. Opening kick will be a touchback.
2. Kneeldown is how it ends.
3. I agree on no 4 unanswered scores. No big blowout here.
4. I will give you 11-1 odds on 'successful onsides kick'. The stupid new rules basically limiting your guys ability to line up on the side your kicker is kicking to makes it so hard for there to be a successful onside kick. I'll go as high as my $220 against your $20 if you want.
February 4th, 2022 at 11:10:10 AM
permalink
So Caesars has these offers...
1. Bet $100 on any SB same game parlay that gets to at least +1000, and if you win, in addition to your winnings you get an extra free bet of $560. You can only do this for your first SB parlay bet.
2. Bet $10 each on 10 separate SB props, with no extreme favorites (must be -130 as the biggest allowed favorite), and if you win 7 or more out of 10 you get your winnings and an extra free bet of $56.
I think the EV of 1 is probably only slightly positive with big variance, so I'm not sure if I'll be doing it.
I'll definitely be doing number 2 because it is probably a very small +EV bet, and also I'll love paying attention to the mess I'll have created.
I'm guessing betMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel will have opportunities as the game gets closer.
1. Bet $100 on any SB same game parlay that gets to at least +1000, and if you win, in addition to your winnings you get an extra free bet of $560. You can only do this for your first SB parlay bet.
2. Bet $10 each on 10 separate SB props, with no extreme favorites (must be -130 as the biggest allowed favorite), and if you win 7 or more out of 10 you get your winnings and an extra free bet of $56.
I think the EV of 1 is probably only slightly positive with big variance, so I'm not sure if I'll be doing it.
I'll definitely be doing number 2 because it is probably a very small +EV bet, and also I'll love paying attention to the mess I'll have created.
I'm guessing betMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel will have opportunities as the game gets closer.
February 4th, 2022 at 12:01:27 PM
permalink
Quote: SOOPOO4. I will give you 11-1 odds on 'successful onsides kick'. The stupid new rules basically limiting your guys ability to line up on the side your kicker is kicking to makes it so hard for there to be a successful onside kick. I'll go as high as my $220 against your $20 if you want.
I never put my money where my mouth is - usually, I need to leave room in there for my foot.
February 4th, 2022 at 12:25:42 PM
permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: SOOPOO4. I will give you 11-1 odds on 'successful onsides kick'. The stupid new rules basically limiting your guys ability to line up on the side your kicker is kicking to makes it so hard for there to be a successful onside kick. I'll go as high as my $220 against your $20 if you want.
I never put my money where my mouth is - usually, I need to leave room in there for my foot.
link to original post
I’m not good at this internet thing, but maybe 2% of NFL games have a successful onside kick? I see nothing about this matchup that would make an onside success more likely than average.
February 4th, 2022 at 12:54:47 PM
permalink
Quote: SOOPOOI’m not good at this internet thing, but maybe 2% of NFL games have a successful onside kick? I see nothing about this matchup that would make an onside success more likely than average.
That sounds a little high "as stated"; I don't think there is an average of one successful onside kick every 3 weeks (48 games) of the regular season. Did you mean that 2% of the attempts are successful? Or maybe that 2% of all games have any onside kicks at all?
I am just thinking of when the Saints pulled off a surprise onside kick to start the second half against the Colts in 2010.
February 4th, 2022 at 3:42:40 PM
permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuyI am just thinking of when the Saints pulled off a surprise onside kick to start the second half against the Colts in 2010.
link to original post
Didn't the Ravens do that too, against SF, in 2013?
In other news, I just returned from the Suncoast and Rampart with prop sheets. Here, for now, is the Super Bowl 56 South Point/Rampart proposition bets (20 page PDF).
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 4th, 2022 at 3:42:44 PM
permalink
Actually, I think you’re supposed to use the mean as the basis for a Poisson distributionQuote: unJonWiz, shouldn’t your analysis use median field goals per game rather than mean field goals per game with an assumed Poisson?
Maybe median data not very available?
link to original post
Last edited by: Ace2 on Feb 4, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
February 4th, 2022 at 4:48:24 PM
permalink
I like that one too. I also like:Quote: ThatDonGuyThere will not be four unanswered scores (conversions do not count as scores; safeties not on conversions do) (-320)
Will a missed field goal or extra point hit upright. No (-600).
February 4th, 2022 at 7:50:00 PM
permalink
Quote: Ace2Actually, I think you’re supposed to use the mean as the basis for a Poisson distributionQuote: unJonWiz, shouldn’t your analysis use median field goals per game rather than mean field goals per game with an assumed Poisson?
Maybe median data not very available?
link to original post
link to original post
There’s no need to assume a Poisson distribution if you have medians. Median is what you are trying to get to with Poisson.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 4th, 2022 at 8:49:13 PM
permalink
Will the private message betting window be open? 🤪
I’m gonna be looking at most of the same bets as last year:
Safety
Overtime
Scoreless quarter
Missed extra point
Successful 2pt conversion
Special teams / defense TD
Scoragami
FYI: Here’s last year’s discussion about Scoragami
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/35579-super-bowl-55/7/#post794309
I’m gonna be looking at most of the same bets as last year:
Safety
Overtime
Scoreless quarter
Missed extra point
Successful 2pt conversion
Special teams / defense TD
Scoragami
FYI: Here’s last year’s discussion about Scoragami
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/35579-super-bowl-55/7/#post794309
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 5th, 2022 at 4:00:42 AM
permalink
Quote: SOOPOO(snip)
2. Bet $10 each on 10 separate SB props, with no extreme favorites (must be -130 as the biggest allowed favorite), and if you win 7 or more out of 10 you get your winnings and an extra free bet of $56.
(snip)
link to original post
Try to pick the props that are close to -130 to maximize the chance of getting the "$56 free bet".
I get about a 25%^^^ chance for 7 (or more) winners out of 10 doing it this way.
^^^: To work this out, I assumed that for their prop markets, if they offer -130 on one side, then the other side would be about +110.
Like you thought, very small +EV (assuming that the lines for each prop are -130 / +110 or close to that ).
---
Extra Info:
FYI: If you pick -110 / -110 ("50 / 50") props in every game, then the chance of getting 7 (or more) winners is closer to 17.2%.
February 5th, 2022 at 4:30:41 AM
permalink
Quote: ksdjdjQuote: SOOPOO(snip)
2. Bet $10 each on 10 separate SB props, with no extreme favorites (must be -130 as the biggest allowed favorite), and if you win 7 or more out of 10 you get your winnings and an extra free bet of $56.
(snip)
link to original post
Try to pick the props that are close to -130 to maximize the chance of getting the "$56 free bet".
I get about a 25%^^^ chance for 7 (or more) winners out of 10 doing it this way.
^^^: To work this out, I assumed that for their prop markets, if they offer -130 on one side, then the other side would be about +110.
Like you thought, very small +EV (assuming that the lines for each prop are -130 / +110 or close to that ).
---
Extra Info:
FYI: If you pick -110 / -110 ("50 / 50") props in every game, then the chance of getting 7 (or more) winners is closer to 17.2%.
link to original post
That’s been my plan. They have a different bet that if I do a 4 team parlay and you get 3 of 4 you get a free bet equal to what you bet as a consolation prize. It has to be 4 bets no stronger a favorite than -200. I’ve been picking the 4 college basketball favorites closest to -200. Last night I hit all 4 at around +550. On the others were 2/4…..
February 5th, 2022 at 12:56:54 PM
permalink
Quote: SOOPOO(snip)
That’s been my plan. They have a different bet that if I do a 4 team parlay and you get 3 of 4 you get a free bet equal to what you bet as a consolation prize. It has to be 4 bets no stronger a favorite than -200. I’ve been picking the 4 college basketball favorites closest to -200. Last night I hit all 4 at around +550. On the others were 2/4…..
link to original post
Pretty good.
When betting on -200 teams (assuming each leg has a "bookmaker's percentage" of ~105%) the overall play is +EV, as long as the EV of the bet you have with the bonus is greater than about "47.5% x the free bet".
---
(Update: about 1pm, Pac time): Since it is fairly hard to get -200 for every team, if we assume that the average odds you receive are -150 per team, then the the EV of the bet you have with the bonus needs to be greater than about "55.5% x the free bet" , for the play to have a +EV overall.
February 5th, 2022 at 3:29:23 PM
permalink
I am looking for someone to put on a fairly big bet*** on the "no side" for the "Will The Game Be Decided By Exactly 3 Points?" with William Hill / Caesars, see link here >>> link <<< under "Prop Bets" (you have to scroll down a fair way to find it)
***: I would like to win up to $2000 @ -500 on the "no side" of the bet (in other words I would like to risk up to $10000 to win $2000)
Note: I am happy with the odds of -500, so if you manage to find odds better than that at a different book, you can bet with them and keep the difference.
If interested, PM me for more info.
***: I would like to win up to $2000 @ -500 on the "no side" of the bet (in other words I would like to risk up to $10000 to win $2000)
Note: I am happy with the odds of -500, so if you manage to find odds better than that at a different book, you can bet with them and keep the difference.
If interested, PM me for more info.
February 5th, 2022 at 4:03:24 PM
permalink
Here are the odds I am happy to offer on the Yes^^^:
^^^: I only like betting on the "no side", so that is why I am asking if anyone wants to bet on the "yes side" against me.
Safety: Yes +1200
Overtime: Yes +1250
Any Scoreless quarter: Yes +375
Missed extra point: Yes +320
Will There Be a Missed Field Goal and / or / Extra Point: Yes +125
Successful 2pt conversion: Yes +300
Special teams / defense TD: Yes +260
Scoragami ( Scorigami ): Yes +2000 ***
***: I couldn't find a book that is offering this, so this is just a guess of what I think it should be (this offer is open to negotiation, for all other props on offer, the odds are non-negotiable###).
###: The reason for this is. IMO all the other odds are "fair odds" when compared to what was being offered with the sports books that I had access to, at the time I posted these odds.
----
"Extra stuff":
Not looking for huge bets, this is just for a bit of fun, so the maximum amount per prop that I am willing to accept is: $250 (your stake) or "to lose $1000" (my liability), whichever amount is less for each prop you want to bet on.
"First come , first served" , PM me if anyone is interested.
^^^: I only like betting on the "no side", so that is why I am asking if anyone wants to bet on the "yes side" against me.
Safety: Yes +1200
Overtime: Yes +1250
Any Scoreless quarter: Yes +375
Missed extra point: Yes +320
Will There Be a Missed Field Goal and / or / Extra Point: Yes +125
Successful 2pt conversion: Yes +300
Special teams / defense TD: Yes +260
Scoragami ( Scorigami ): Yes +2000 ***
***: I couldn't find a book that is offering this, so this is just a guess of what I think it should be (this offer is open to negotiation, for all other props on offer, the odds are non-negotiable###).
###: The reason for this is. IMO all the other odds are "fair odds" when compared to what was being offered with the sports books that I had access to, at the time I posted these odds.
----
"Extra stuff":
Not looking for huge bets, this is just for a bit of fun, so the maximum amount per prop that I am willing to accept is: $250 (your stake) or "to lose $1000" (my liability), whichever amount is less for each prop you want to bet on.
"First come , first served" , PM me if anyone is interested.
February 5th, 2022 at 4:31:22 PM
permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuyThere are three of them that I like:
Opening kickoff will not be a touchback (+170)
link to original post
I bet that last year and cashed, and it's cashed the past 7/8 years. Apparently former Kicker Pat Macafee said they use a special ball for the opening kick. It's rock hard and it's very difficult to kick it out of the end zone. It's not a normal ball that has been conditioned for the kickers. In other words, not kicker friendly. Plus the returner is probably all jacked up and will want to return it if he has an opportunity to field it.
February 5th, 2022 at 5:51:17 PM
permalink
Here are some of the props I tend to look at every year from the three Summerlin area casinos.
| Bet | Stations | Rampart | Coast/Boyd |
|---|---|---|---|
| First score touchdown | -185 | -160 | |
| First score by Rams touchdown | -170 | ||
| First score by Bengals touchdown | -160 | ||
| Last score by Rams touchdown | -185 | ||
| Last score by Bengals touchdown | -175 | ||
| Team to score first wins | -160 | -210 | |
| Team to score last wins | -230 | -200 | |
| No safety | -1100 | -1100 | |
| No two-point conversion | -270 | -250 | |
| No overtime | -1100 | -1000 | |
| Field goals under 3.5 | -140 | -155 | |
| No failed PAT | -320 | ||
| No 3-point margin of victory | -500 | -750 | |
| No 7-point margin of victory | -800 | -1600 | |
| Rams have scoreless quarter | -220 | ||
| Bengals have scoreless quarter | -300 | ||
| Score in all four quarters | -500 | -500 | -500 |
| Largest lead under 14.5 | 110 | ||
| Total punts under 6.5 | 105 | -150 |
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 5th, 2022 at 6:27:59 PM
permalink
We typically stay at a Boyd place Super Bowl weekend but don't even look at the props there....they always seem to offer crappy lines compared to most other books
February 5th, 2022 at 6:49:07 PM
permalink
Quote: JohnzimboWe typically stay at a Boyd place Super Bowl weekend but don't even look at the props there....they always seem to offer crappy lines compared to most other books
link to original post
They have 30-cent lines on props, much like the Station casinos. The Rampart/South Point of 20-cent lines. I think William Hill is at 20-cents too.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 5th, 2022 at 7:13:55 PM
permalink
You can only be sure a 20-cent line is better than a 30-cent line if the implied probabilities are very close to 50/50.
For instance
+350 / -450 is a vig of 3.88%
+150 / -180 is a vig of 4.11%
+105 / -125 is a vig of 4.34%
For instance
+350 / -450 is a vig of 3.88%
+150 / -180 is a vig of 4.11%
+105 / -125 is a vig of 4.34%
Last edited by: Ace2 on Feb 5, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
February 6th, 2022 at 4:42:23 AM
permalink
Here are the Station casino props.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 6th, 2022 at 6:18:45 AM
permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuyOpening kickoff will not be a touchback (+170)
This season's playoff games opening kickoff:
Cin vs KC:
opening KC kick - touchback
first Cin kick - touchback
SF @ LA:
opening SF kick - touchback
first LA kick - touchback
Cin @ Ten
opening Cin kick - touchback
first Ten kick - touchback
LA @ TB:
opening LA kick - returned
first TB kick - out of bounds, penalty
LV @ Cin
opening Cin kick - touchback
first LV kick - returned
Pho @ LA
opening LA kick - touchback
first Pho kick - touchback
finally, according to Pro Football Reference, in 2021 the following were the touchback rates:
LA
season: 63.7% of kickoffs were touchbacks
playoffs: 11 of 18 (61.1%)
Cincinnati
season: 58.9%
playoffs: 12 of 19 (63.1%)
What does this say? In my small sample size, it appears that the opening kickoff in playoff games, seem to be touchbacks at a much higher rate than kickoffs in general.
Thoughts?
February 6th, 2022 at 8:45:12 AM
permalink
Don't the big books post their prop bet sheets on Tuesday? Maybe I'm living in the past.
I found the Westgate's 32 page list here:
https://xsportsbook.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Westgate-SuperBook-Bengals-vs-Rams-Super-Bowl-56-Betting-Sheet.pdf
I found the Westgate's 32 page list here:
https://xsportsbook.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Westgate-SuperBook-Bengals-vs-Rams-Super-Bowl-56-Betting-Sheet.pdf
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 6th, 2022 at 9:57:47 AM
permalink
I certainly have found it to be true that the lower the implied probabilities of the event are, the wider this goes. If a game is thought to be an even match up it might even be -110/-110 . So your claim is interesting but would not be intuitive until experiencing it ... how do you come up with implied vig?Quote: Ace2You can only be sure a 20-cent line is better than a 30-cent line if the implied probabilities are very close to 50/50.
For instance
+350 / -450 is a vig of 3.88%
+150 / -180 is a vig of 4.11%
+105 / -125 is a vig of 4.34%
link to original post
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
February 6th, 2022 at 10:09:26 AM
permalink
Quote: IndyJeffreyQuote: ThatDonGuyOpening kickoff will not be a touchback (+170)
This season's playoff games opening kickoff:
Cin vs KC:
opening KC kick - touchback
first Cin kick - touchback
SF @ LA:
opening SF kick - touchback
first LA kick - touchback
Cin @ Ten
opening Cin kick - touchback
first Ten kick - touchback
LA @ TB:
opening LA kick - returned
first TB kick - out of bounds, penalty
LV @ Cin
opening Cin kick - touchback
first LV kick - returned
Pho @ LA
opening LA kick - touchback
first Pho kick - touchback
finally, according to Pro Football Reference, in 2021 the following were the touchback rates:
LA
season: 63.7% of kickoffs were touchbacks
playoffs: 11 of 18 (61.1%)
Cincinnati
season: 58.9%
playoffs: 12 of 19 (63.1%)
What does this say? In my small sample size, it appears that the opening kickoff in playoff games, seem to be touchbacks at a much higher rate than kickoffs in general.
Thoughts?
link to original post
I'm lazy and won't do the work... but I'll put out some thoughts..... In a cushy windless indoor stadium I think every NFL kicker can get a touchback over 80% of the time if that is the strategy the special teams coach wants them to use. In a wind driven snow slicked outdoor stadium (do I live in Buffalo?) it will be extremely difficult to get a touchback into the wind, and not a guarantee down wind, either.
Also remember the strategy part. Some teams (like the Bills{I think}) intentionally kick off shorter to try and pin the other team short of the 20 yard line, as the touchback gives the receiving team the ball at the 25 yard line. It's a risk/reward decision.
I expect these two teams to go for the touchback. I will be betting on touchback. As a reminder, if this is considered an even money bet, i tend to be correct 49% of the time....
February 6th, 2022 at 12:32:10 PM
permalink
btw you are getting a different answer from a vig calculator I foundQuote: odiousgambitI certainly have found it to be true that the lower the implied probabilities of the event are, the wider this goes. If a game is thought to be an even match up it might even be -110/-110 . So your claim is interesting but would not be intuitive until experiencing it ... how do you come up with implied vig?Quote: Ace2You can only be sure a 20-cent line is better than a 30-cent line if the implied probabilities are very close to 50/50.
For instance
+350 / -450 is a vig of 3.88%
+150 / -180 is a vig of 4.11%
+105 / -125 is a vig of 4.34%
link to original post
link to original post
+350 / -450 is a vig of 4.04 instead of 3.88%
+150 / -180 is a vig of 4.29 instead of 4.11%
+105 / -125 is a vig of 4.34% with the calc. too
however your point holds up: greater "spread" as you go "up", that is move away from 50-50 even money probability, is needed to maintain vig. I'm using quotes since my terminology may not be standard.
6.24% vig for the Boyd line per calculatorQuote: WizardGood point. I checked the prop sheets and Stations breaks to above 30-cent at lines of +145/-180. Meanwhile, I saw a pair of Boyd lines at +120/-155. That, is quite stingy and gets the Wizard finger wagging of shame.Quote: Ace2You can only be sure a 20-cent line is better than a 30-cent line if the implied probabilities are very close to 50/50.
For instance
+350 / -450 is a vig of 3.88%
+150 / -180 is a vig of 4.11%
+105 / -125 is a vig of 4.34%
link to original post
link to original post
this is new enough to me that I don't instinctively spot the Boyd line as stingy
https://www.sportsbookscout.com/tools/vig-calculator
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
February 6th, 2022 at 12:40:46 PM
permalink
Let’s say the bookmaker holds 4% of all money wagered. If $100 of wagers come in at $55 on Team A and $45 on B, he’ll payout $96 for $55 if A wins and $96 for $45 if B wins, which in American format is listed as -134 and +113 (rounded, and they might quote at -135 / + 115Quote: odiousgambitI certainly have found it to be true that the lower the implied probabilities of the event are, the wider this goes. If a game is thought to be an even match up it might even be -110/-110 . So your claim is interesting but would not be intuitive until experiencing it ... how do you come up with implied vig?Quote: Ace2You can only be sure a 20-cent line is better than a 30-cent line if the implied probabilities are very close to 50/50.
For instance
+350 / -450 is a vig of 3.88%
+150 / -180 is a vig of 4.11%
+105 / -125 is a vig of 4.34%
link to original post
link to original post
Starting from the lines, you work backwards to get to the vig and implied probabilities. 134/234 + 100/213 = 100/96, the reciprocal of which is 96% = the bookmakers payout ratio. The fair line is (213/100) * 1/.96 - 1 = +122/122. (100 / (100 + 122) = 45% = the amount wagered on the underdog with 1 - .45 = 55% on the favorite. No rounding on these calculations
Now if the money came in at $75 A on and $25 on B, the lines would be -357 / +284 using the same method and payout ratio. The spread is much larger since, for the line on the favorite, the bookmaker starts with $75/$25 then takes $4 out the denominator to get $75/$21, which has a large effect on the fair line of -300
These are textbook examples and, in practice, the money lines are often moving as bets come in and A/B ratios change
Last edited by: Ace2 on Feb 6, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
February 6th, 2022 at 12:46:55 PM
permalink
Both the vig calculator you found and Ace are using the same formula. However, the vig calculator you found is rounding the overround components to 3 decimal places. Ace is rounding to at least 6.Quote: odiousgambitbtw you are getting a different answer from a vig calculator I foundQuote: odiousgambitI certainly have found it to be true that the lower the implied probabilities of the event are, the wider this goes. If a game is thought to be an even match up it might even be -110/-110 . So your claim is interesting but would not be intuitive until experiencing it ... how do you come up with implied vig?Quote: Ace2You can only be sure a 20-cent line is better than a 30-cent line if the implied probabilities are very close to 50/50.
For instance
+350 / -450 is a vig of 3.88%
+150 / -180 is a vig of 4.11%
+105 / -125 is a vig of 4.34%
link to original post
link to original post
+350 / -450 is a vig of 4.04 instead of 3.88%
+150 / -180 is a vig of 4.29 instead of 4.11%
+105 / -125 is a vig of 4.34% with the calc. too
February 6th, 2022 at 12:55:15 PM
permalink
Why would you use an online calculator for something so simple? This isn’t differential equations…it’s just addition and multiplication of a few terms
It’s all about making that GTA
February 6th, 2022 at 4:19:11 PM
permalink
I quoted the wrong post in one of my previous posts, which lead to some confusion, for which I apologize.
I'm trying to say that not all 20-cent lines are equal. Some places separate to 25 cents earlier than others. For example, I saw a pair of Boyd lines at +120/-155, which is quite stingy. However, I now see that Boyd has 20-cent lines on some props and 30-cent on others. As an example:
#121 Over/under 22.5 total points by Bengals -115/-115
#115 Over/under 13.5 total points in first half scored by Rams -110/-110
By the way, I also have a house edge calculate for sports betting.
I'm trying to say that not all 20-cent lines are equal. Some places separate to 25 cents earlier than others. For example, I saw a pair of Boyd lines at +120/-155, which is quite stingy. However, I now see that Boyd has 20-cent lines on some props and 30-cent on others. As an example:
#121 Over/under 22.5 total points by Bengals -115/-115
#115 Over/under 13.5 total points in first half scored by Rams -110/-110
By the way, I also have a house edge calculate for sports betting.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 6th, 2022 at 4:41:29 PM
permalink
Another thing to remember when looking at moneylines is that the fair line will always be closer to the underdog line. In a near 50/50 matchup, the fair line isn’t that far off the midpoint of the two, but in a very lopsided matchup the fair line is much closer to the underdog line. That doesn’t mean the vig is higher on the favorite…it’s just due to the math for lines expressed in American format
I think American format is the best for expressing betting ratios. For example, if a line is -130 it’s easy to see you’re wagering $130 against $100, or any amount at a 13:10 ratio. In European/decimal format this bet is expressed at 1.769, which isn’t as easy to interpret IMO. However, decimal odds are better for calculations. For instance, the implied probability of any wager, favorite or underdog, is simply the reciprocal of the quote (1 / 1.769)
Sort of like the metric vs imperial system. Without a doubt, the all-decimal metric system is better for calculations. But the imperial system can be better for everyday use, like if you want to roughly measure the length a room with your feet
I think American format is the best for expressing betting ratios. For example, if a line is -130 it’s easy to see you’re wagering $130 against $100, or any amount at a 13:10 ratio. In European/decimal format this bet is expressed at 1.769, which isn’t as easy to interpret IMO. However, decimal odds are better for calculations. For instance, the implied probability of any wager, favorite or underdog, is simply the reciprocal of the quote (1 / 1.769)
Sort of like the metric vs imperial system. Without a doubt, the all-decimal metric system is better for calculations. But the imperial system can be better for everyday use, like if you want to roughly measure the length a room with your feet
Last edited by: Ace2 on Feb 6, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
February 6th, 2022 at 5:11:17 PM
permalink
Quote: UP84Both the vig calculator you found and Ace are using the same formula. However, the vig calculator you found is rounding the overround components to 3 decimal places. Ace is rounding to at least 6.Quote: odiousgambitbtw you are getting a different answer from a vig calculator I foundQuote: odiousgambitI certainly have found it to be true that the lower the implied probabilities of the event are, the wider this goes. If a game is thought to be an even match up it might even be -110/-110 . So your claim is interesting but would not be intuitive until experiencing it ... how do you come up with implied vig?Quote: Ace2You can only be sure a 20-cent line is better than a 30-cent line if the implied probabilities are very close to 50/50.
For instance
+350 / -450 is a vig of 3.88%
+150 / -180 is a vig of 4.11%
+105 / -125 is a vig of 4.34%
link to original post
link to original post
+350 / -450 is a vig of 4.04 instead of 3.88%
+150 / -180 is a vig of 4.29 instead of 4.11%
+105 / -125 is a vig of 4.34% with the calc. too
link to original post
I think I know what may have happened for the "350 / -450" and "+150 / -180" figures, as 3.88%^^^ and 4.11% *** are the correct "implied house edges" for those examples.
^^^: 1/ ~1.0404 = ~ 0.9612 = ~96.12% RTP = ~3.88% house edge (edit: about 525 pm, Pac time)
***: 1/ ~1.0429 = ~ 0.9589 = ~95.89% RTP = ~4.11% house edge (edit: about 525 pm, Pac time)
Also, I know it isn't much of a difference in the above examples, but it can make a fairly big difference the further away you get from 100% expected RTP.
February 6th, 2022 at 6:11:12 PM
permalink
In an effort to compare the prop bets in a general way between sports books, I looked at 10 separate sets of lines, trying to get a range from evenly balanced to a big longshot, like a safety. Here are my results for Stations and South Point. I plan to add more later, when I get more prop sheets.
Stations
South Point
Westgate
Note: Westgate props
Stations
| Bet | Yes | No | Exp Val |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams to make shortest field goal | -115 | -115 | -0.065217 |
| Stafford will not throw an interception | 120 | -150 | -0.051724 |
| Bengals first team to score 10 points or more | 125 | -155 | -0.049689 |
| Bengals first team to score 20 points or more | 145 | -180 | -0.048544 |
| Burrow first pass attempt incomplete | 175 | -220 | -0.048649 |
| 3 or more unanswered scores | 190 | -240 | -0.048263 |
| Over 1.5 fumbles lost in game | 200 | -260 | -0.052632 |
| Successful 2-point conversion | 210 | -270 | -0.049710 |
| Beckham Jr will score a touchdown in first half | 300 | -400 | -0.047619 |
| 3-point margin of victory | 350 | -500 | -0.052632 |
| Ramsey to intercept a pass | 500 | -800 | -0.052632 |
| Safety | 700 | -1100 | -0.040000 |
| Average | -0.050609 |
South Point
| Bet | Yes | No | Exp Val |
|---|---|---|---|
| First turnover will be a fumble | -110 | -110 | -0.045455 |
| Shortest TD over 1.5 yards | 120 | -140 | -0.036496 |
| Over 3.5 field goals | 135 | -155 | -0.032297 |
| Team to score first wins | 155 | -175 | -0.027730 |
| Last play will not be a QB rush | 170 | -190 | -0.024907 |
| Missed extra point | 200 | -240 | -0.037736 |
| Successful 2-point conversion | 210 | -250 | -0.035556 |
| No score in last two minutes of first half | 260 | -320 | -0.038168 |
| Blanton will score a TD | 340 | -440 | -0.040388 |
| Scoreless quarter | 400 | -500 | -0.032258 |
| Rapp to have an interception | 550 | -800 | -0.040984 |
| Safety | 700 | -1100 | -0.040000 |
| Average | -0.035998 |
Westgate
| Bet | Yes | No | Exp Val |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Stafford rushing attempt under 2.5 | -110 | -110 | -0.045455 |
| Rams convert third down attempts | 120 | -140 | -0.036496 |
| Shortest touchdown over 1.5 | 130 | -150 | -0.033613 |
| Stafford to throw touchdown pass in third quarter | 150 | -170 | -0.028777 |
| First touchdown will not be by passing | 200 | -240 | -0.037736 |
| No field goal in second quarter | 250 | -300 | -0.034483 |
| Either team scores in first 4.5 minutes of game | 270 | -330 | -0.036342 |
| Over 3 touchdown passes by Stafford | 300 | -360 | -0.031579 |
| Scoreless quarter | 375 | -450 | -0.027907 |
| Either team scores in first 3.5 minutes of game | 400 | -500 | -0.032258 |
| Burro to score a touchdown | 500 | -700 | -0.040000 |
| Safety | 700 | -1100 | -0.040000 |
| Average | -0.035387 |
Note: Westgate props
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 6th, 2022 at 6:45:21 PM
permalink
Quote: WizardHere are some of the props I tend to look at every year from the three Summerlin area casinos.
Bet Stations Rampart Coast/Boyd Score in all four quarters -500 -500 -500
link to original post
OK...I find this interesting.
I cannot find this exact bet on FD, that said at FD...
"To score every quarter:"
Cin-No -340
LA-No -200
It seems to me, if I put down $100 at Stations, I'd win $20
If I put $50 on each side at FD, I'd win $39.71 if both hit, and lose much less if one side hit.
Am I looking at this correctly?
February 6th, 2022 at 7:00:59 PM
permalink
Quote: IndyJeffreyQuote: WizardHere are some of the props I tend to look at every year from the three Summerlin area casinos.
Bet Stations Rampart Coast/Boyd Score in all four quarters -500 -500 -500
link to original post
OK...I find this interesting.
I cannot find this exact bet on FD, that said at FD...
"To score every quarter:"
Cin-No -340
LA-No -200
It seems to me, if I put down $100 at Stations, I'd win $20
If I put $50 on each side at FD, I'd win $39.71 if both hit, and lose much less if one side hit.
Am I looking at this correctly?
link to original post
-500 is the yes, not the no.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 6th, 2022 at 7:16:04 PM
permalink
I noticed Mike listed one of the props as such…. In a game featuring Rams and Bengals…. Burro to score a TD?
Cute typo….
Cute typo….
February 6th, 2022 at 8:44:37 PM
permalink
Quote: SOOPOOI noticed Mike listed one of the props as such…. In a game featuring Rams and Bengals…. Burro to score a TD?
Cute typo….
link to original post
Probably because I saw a lot of them yesterday. Here is just one picture.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 7th, 2022 at 3:56:56 AM
permalink
Anyone remember when the colts played the bears in Super bowl? Colts kicked off and bears ran it back for a touchdown. Didn't mean to derail,but I will always have that memory.
February 7th, 2022 at 4:05:17 AM
permalink
Quote: IndyJeffrey
Am I looking at this correctly?
link to original post
Upon further thought, I am not. And the FD hold (>8%)...ugh.
February 7th, 2022 at 8:00:21 AM
permalink
I thought equines only kicked field goals!Quote: SOOPOOI noticed Mike listed one of the props as such…. In a game featuring Rams and Bengals…. Burro to score a TD?
Cute typo….
link to original post
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
February 7th, 2022 at 8:34:34 AM
permalink
Quote: IndyJeffreyQuote: ThatDonGuyOpening kickoff will not be a touchback (+170)
This season's playoff games opening kickoff:
Cin vs KC:
opening KC kick - touchback
first Cin kick - touchback
SF @ LA:
opening SF kick - touchback
first LA kick - touchback
Cin @ Ten
opening Cin kick - touchback
first Ten kick - touchback
LA @ TB:
opening LA kick - returned
first TB kick - out of bounds, penalty
LV @ Cin
opening Cin kick - touchback
first LV kick - returned
Pho @ LA
opening LA kick - touchback
first Pho kick - touchback
finally, according to Pro Football Reference, in 2021 the following were the touchback rates:
LA
season: 63.7% of kickoffs were touchbacks
playoffs: 11 of 18 (61.1%)
Cincinnati
season: 58.9%
playoffs: 12 of 19 (63.1%)
What does this say? In my small sample size, it appears that the opening kickoff in playoff games, seem to be touchbacks at a much higher rate than kickoffs in general.
Thoughts?
link to original post
They use a different ball for SB kick offs vs playoffs. Last 26 of 28 SB have resulted in a return. And one of the kickers was Justin Tucker who managed a touchback. Strongest leg in the league. It’s a commemorative ball, it’s like kicking a rock according to a kicker who has kicked off in the SB. Eventually this prop is going to become minus money,, last year was almost plus 300!
February 8th, 2022 at 9:39:31 AM
permalink
Quote: VegasriderQuote: IndyJeffreyQuote: ThatDonGuyOpening kickoff will not be a touchback (+170)
This season's playoff games opening kickoff:
Cin vs KC:
opening KC kick - touchback
first Cin kick - touchback
SF @ LA:
opening SF kick - touchback
first LA kick - touchback
Cin @ Ten
opening Cin kick - touchback
first Ten kick - touchback
LA @ TB:
opening LA kick - returned
first TB kick - out of bounds, penalty
LV @ Cin
opening Cin kick - touchback
first LV kick - returned
Pho @ LA
opening LA kick - touchback
first Pho kick - touchback
finally, according to Pro Football Reference, in 2021 the following were the touchback rates:
LA
season: 63.7% of kickoffs were touchbacks
playoffs: 11 of 18 (61.1%)
Cincinnati
season: 58.9%
playoffs: 12 of 19 (63.1%)
What does this say? In my small sample size, it appears that the opening kickoff in playoff games, seem to be touchbacks at a much higher rate than kickoffs in general.
Thoughts?
link to original post
They use a different ball for SB kick offs vs playoffs. Last 26 of 28 SB have resulted in a return. And one of the kickers was Justin Tucker who managed a touchback. Strongest leg in the league. It’s a commemorative ball, it’s like kicking a rock according to a kicker who has kicked off in the SB. Eventually this prop is going to become minus money,, last year was almost plus 300!
link to original post
That would be stunning if a ball with different characteristics for kicking in the Super Bowl than a regular season game or playoff game was used! I've already plunked down money at -130 on YES TOUCHBACK. Hope you are wrong!
So I had to pick exactly 10 props, $10 each, no favorite more than -130, and if I win 7 I get a bonus free bet of $56. I decided to try and get correlated picks, so I am more likely to be 7+ out of ten if Rams do well, but likely to be 3- out of ten if the Bengals do well.
Here they are. They range in odds from -105 to -130.
Rams first team in red zone
Rams have last possession of the game
Bengals punt 1st
Longest score is a FG (I am not sure if a FG is kicked from the 30 yard line if it is counted as a 40 yard score or a 30 yard score)
Rams first team to throw TD pass
Rams longest scoring drive
Rams more offensive plays
Game NOT tied again after 0-0
Rams most FGs
Rams longest TD
Edit…. STUPID pick! Rams most FGs . If it ties does not count as a win towards 7 wins. Oh well. Live and learn.
Last edited by: SOOPOO on Feb 8, 2022
