Super Bowl 55

Quote: speedycrap

No problem, we will find a way to settle. I will learn a new way to send/receive money.

Bet confirmed. For the record, if I win, will ask that you pay Mike to be used towards next spring fling fund.

Quote: unJon

Bet confirmed. For the record, if I win, will ask that you pay Mike to be used towards next spring fling fund.

No problem at all.

Quote: Wizard

I just uploaded three Super Bowl 55 prop sheets. Enjoy.

Station Casinos

South Point group

Boyd Gaming

Hmmm....
I downloaded Westgate, William Hill and Circa. Of all six, do you have a preference which I use for the bets I’m gonna PM you about?

Quote: DJTeddyBear

I downloaded Westgate, William Hill and Circa. Of all six, do you have a preference which I use for the bets I’m gonna PM you about?

You may choose, but stay consistent with a single source.

Saw a very interesting prop bet that seems very mispriced. Fan Duel sportsbook has a "scorigami" bet - a bet that the two scores will form a unique combination (not permutation) that has never been seen before in NFL history.

Here is the link to the historical data: https://nflscorigami.com/

The line for the "No" is -1400. Smash this?

https://twitter.com/FDSportsbook/status/1357406501980286976/photo/1

Quote: Actuarial

Saw a very interesting prop bet that seems very mispriced. Fan Duel sportsbook has a "scorigami" bet - a bet that the two scores will form a unique combination (not permutation) that has never been seen before in NFL history.

Here is the link to the historical data: https://nflscorigami.com/

The line for the "No" is -1400. Smash this?

https://twitter.com/FDSportsbook/status/1357406501980286976/photo/1

. I think that the possibility of such a high scoring game for both teams opens up a reasonable chance of a scoragami. I’m not sure -1400 is such a good bet.

Quote: Actuarial

...Here is the link to the historical data: https://nflscorigami.com/

The line for the "No" is -1400.

Cool link. Every cell in the graph shows the first and last times it happened with links to the box scores. Cool.

FYI: The ‘Yes’ is +1100.

Quote: Actuarial

Saw a very interesting prop bet that seems very mispriced. Fan Duel sportsbook has a "scorigami" bet - a bet that the two scores will form a unique combination (not permutation) that has never been seen before in NFL history.

Here is the link to the historical data: https://nflscorigami.com/

The line for the "No" is -1400. Smash this?

Quote: SOOPOO

. I think that the possibility of such a high scoring game for both teams opens up a reasonable chance of a scoragami. I’m not sure -1400 is such a good bet.

very interesting - I acknowledge SOOPOO's point but there is also the thing that the 13 scorigamis in the last 2 years reduced the chance for one this year

without considering those 2 points, I figured the edge this way -

and the 2 important things are - the edge is not as large as many might estimate - and also, it's a very unpopular kind of bet - risking much to win a small amount - anyway here goes -

if anyone finds any errors - please edit and correct

there were 13 scorigamis in the last 2 seasons - 9 in 2020 - 4 in 2019 - there were a total of 526 games in the 2 years including playoff games

that is what I used, the only stats on it I could get, and that works out to be one scorigami every 40.46 games

so, I used the number 40 - to cut down on making the math more mistake prone and also to be more on the conservative side

if a player lost one bet of $1400 and won the other 39 bets he would have a profit of $2500

his total action would have been (40 * 1400) = $56,000

his edge would be only be 4.46% ...........................($2500 divided by $56,000)

it's a pretty nice edge - not fantastic for a sporting event - but maybe not such a great bet when considering that it's not very enjoyable for many to risk so much to win so little



the link is to every single NFL score in case anybody makes this bet and wants to check it out:



https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/game-scores.htm



*

Quote: Actuarial

The line for the "No" is -1400. Smash this?

Smash, I did. I'm in a rush to get out the door, but I'll write up my method later today or tomorrow.

Bottom line is my probability of a scorigami is 0.010736. Fair odds on the yes are 92 to 1.

Quote: Wizard

Smash, I did. I'm in a rush to get out the door, but I'll write up my method later today or tomorrow.

Bottom line is my probability of a scorigami is 0.010736. Fair odds on the yes are 92 to 1.

I'll take 75-1 for as much money as you will let me bet on the yes! Mike.... I am sure you are not factoring in the huge increase in missed extra points, huge increase in both two point successes and failures, etc..... These increase scoragamis since the first many decades these rules did not exist! (Longer XP, thus more 2pt conversions, helmet to helmet fouls, less offensive holding calls, more roughing calls, ball starts on 25, not 20, etc....) It is not implausible for the loser to have the highest score ever by a losing team.... a scorigami!