When Politics Isn't Politics; It's Gambling
There seemed to be an overreaction to Trump leading and then winning Florida, which I always expected.
Speaking of which, I am curious to see how I did in the prop contest I entered. You had to pick five money line props out of 15 and spread 1,000. I loaded up on Trump to win Florida at +110 and used 980 of my bankroll on that. My girlfriend loaded up on Trump to win Georgia at +110.
If any of the long shot props hit, then we will be beaten, but maybe still have a chance to cash. So my bankroll is going to double, basically. I'm wondering how many people did what I did, or if most people actually spread 200 per prop, in which case I beat them.
I thought the idea of Biden winning Florida or Texas or Georgia was pie in the sky. But he may still win Georgia.
Thanks. I always use betfair especially for TV reality show betting, and the swings can be huge. I don't think I've seen such a large handle, in the last day £70m has been matched. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441Quote: Wizard...a running tally...betting market....4:11[pm) 68%...7:16[pm] 23.8%...7:52[Wed am] 82.0%
I hope this isn't political but the BBC, ITV, Sky have been stuck on 224/213 all morning ( https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/us2020/results ) whereas I noticed overnight Fox and CBS seemed to call earlier (238/213 https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results ). I'm guessing some play safe and don't call the result until they're more certain.
Quote: redietzThe swings were phenomenal. I was checking Betonline.ag, which also kept their numbers up and live throughout the night. Their swings, although modest compared to Betfair, were much larger than I thought they would be.
There seemed to be an overreaction to Trump leading and then winning Florida, which I always expected.
Speaking of which, I am curious to see how I did in the prop contest I entered. You had to pick five money line props out of 15 and spread 1,000. I loaded up on Trump to win Florida at +110 and used 980 of my bankroll on that. My girlfriend loaded up on Trump to win Georgia at +110.
If any of the long shot props hit, then we will be beaten, but maybe still have a chance to cash. So my bankroll is going to double, basically. I'm wondering how many people did what I did, or if most people actually spread 200 per prop, in which case I beat them.
I thought the idea of Biden winning Florida or Texas or Georgia was pie in the sky. But he may still win Georgia.
In the Fanduel contest I put 996 on Trump to win PA and 1 on 4 huge favorite props to win that all will win if NV holds for Biden. I honestly think I could win this whole thing.
Quote: FinsRuleIn the Fanduel contest I put 996 on Trump to win PA and 1 on 4 huge favorite props to win that all will win if NV holds for Biden. I honestly think I could win this whole thing.
Good job. You could win the whole thing. What did you get for the Pennsylvania odds? That was a real good pick with Pennsylvania. When the Post Gazette (not the most conservative paper) came out and endorsed Trump, it probably did have an effect. I'm from Pennsylvania originally.
I remember a story about Washington County (very conservative county in PA) that appeared in Newsweek, I think. They were asking the Obama campaign people when they knew they had a winner, so one person told a story about going door to door to ask people who they planned to vote for. One woman in Washington County opens her door, the canvasser asks who they were voting for, and the woman yells to her husband in the back, "Honey, who are we voting for?" The guy, over the sound of a TV, yells back, "We're votin' for the n****r." That settled it for the canvasser as to who was going to win.
Quote: LandoIt's funny to me that people don't think something else is going on and the historical methods not only are wrong but they can't capture what and why; yet it's easy for us who see the fraud of the Nate Silver's of the world.
If you think Joe Biden/Kamala Harris ticket wins against an incumbent, you better be getting money. I can give you all sorts of historical precedents (Primary model, woman on ticket, incumbent) that are MAJOR factors that are being disregarded based on pure politics and propaganda. Still, I wouldn't make too much fun of a bet on them.
To suggest that Joe Biden is going to win 80+ elections out of 100 is pure insanity.
I'll come back either way, but it will be to gloat since this is by far the best bet of the year. If not for coronavirus, it would have been among the best bets of my lifetime (and I cashed Trump at 100-1 in 2015 and 4-1 before the 2016 election).
Wonder if this guy is coming back.
Country is waiting on you
Any insight from anybody there on the vote count
Interesting how elections come down to one state and this time its Nevada.
Not being a sportsbettor... how often does this kind of a thing happen?
Quote: VenthusSo I just saw that one betting house is paying out on this early: https://twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/1324140973148942337
Not being a sportsbettor... how often does this kind of a thing happen?
Looks like this company has done it before and been wrong. Ouch.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/epic-election-fail-bookies-paid-out-early-on-labor-win-20190518-p51oun.html
Quote: FinsRuleI got +225 on PA. I can’t see what the odds were on the ones I didn’t choose. Did any larger underdog come in that you can remember?
Not that I remember.
Quote: redietzNot that I remember.
Looks like the big upset could be Biden to win GA. Anyone know the odds of that one pre-election?
The Odd1sOut made me lol: "Everyone waiting for Nevada numbers:
Nevada:
https://mobile.twitter.com/theodd1sout/status/1324121005971812356/photo/1
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/tanyachen/nevada-ballots-time-memes-president
I made a huge error betting this thing. For a smart guy, sometimes I'm a dummy. I missed a huge opportunity here. It did not occur to me, and it should have, that because of the history of Florida with Gore/Bush, people -- especially international bettors -- would overestimate the significance of Florida to the overall picture. Florida has become a focal point for American politics, and any outcome has overreactions. I should have realized that; it's pretty obvious, really.
So the thing to have done was whack Biden as a dog after Trump was going to win Florida. It really bothers me that I did not do this, since Florida at +110 for Trump was the primary wager I used in my props contest. I should have taken the thinking one step further. People would overreact to any early Florida outcome, and the odds value was going to be the other way.
Something for all you youngsters with many elections ahead of you to keep in mind down the road.
Interesting sidenote, there’s an app that was tracking ROI using kelly criterion and dollar cost averaging if you bet probabilities based on 538’s forecast vs predictit. The results as of yesterday, with some races still undecided (currently offline)
538 vs predictit:
President: -25%
House: -7.3%
Senate: -21.5%
Quote: SOOPOOYou can get 11-1 if you want Trump to win now. So if you were asked.... which is more likely... you roll a ‘yo’ on your next roll at the craps table, or Trump gets a second term, Trump retaining the Presidency is much more likely. As of 5pm EST on Thursday......
Though rolling at least one yo in your next two rolls is the more likely occurrence. :-)
Quote: SOOPOOYou can get 11-1 if you want Trump to win now. So if you were asked.... which is more likely... you roll a ‘yo’ on your next roll at the craps table, or Trump gets a second term, Trump retaining the Presidency is much more likely. As of 5pm EST on Thursday......
Wow, I completely disagree with that. Although it’s three hours later so maybe you’ve changed your mind?
disagree with what? That Trump should be 11-1 or the math about how likely a yo is?Quote: FinsRuleWow, I completely disagree with that. Although it’s three hours later so maybe you’ve changed your mind?
BetFair has Trump currently at 7-1.
Quote: FinsRuleI think a yo is more likely. No one is betting Biden -1100. They are just trying to get more sucker money at +700.
Who is “they?” I thought Betfair was peer to peer that just takes a service fee?
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
. It’s now 13-1. So still more likely than rolling a yo on one roll. So you believe the odds are off. Go lay the 13-1 then!Quote: FinsRuleWow, I completely disagree with that. Although it’s three hours later so maybe you’ve changed your mind?
New topic.... Republicans defended 197 House seats and went 197-0! (I think?). They were ‘supposed’ to lose 10+ seats. Paco or Tanko.... what odds could you have gotten parlaying al 297 races? I’m sure most had the Republican favored, but maybe Dem favored in 15-20 of those races. 1,000,000-1?
The best line I heard this morning was from Carville. He said that he told his Democrat friends last night to put away the razor blades and Ambien because Biden would win Pennsylvania by 100,000 votes or so when the tally was final.
1/13 house edgeQuote: redietzBetonline.ag took it off the board this morning. You could, however, still bet "whether Melania will divorce Donald if he loses." LOL. Lay -500 for No. Get +300 for Yes.
Same as the edge on Blackjack insurance (infinite deck )
Quote: SOOPOO. It’s now 13-1. So still more likely than rolling a yo on one roll. So you believe the odds are off. Go lay the 13-1 then!
New topic.... Republicans defended 197 House seats and went 197-0! (I think?). They were ‘supposed’ to lose 10+ seats. Paco or Tanko.... what odds could you have gotten parlaying al 297 races? I’m sure most had the Republican favored, but maybe Dem favored in 15-20 of those races. 1,000,000-1?
when you look at the actual races, it's not that big a deal. Almost 20 Republicans chose to retire, rather than run for re-election The net result is both parties lost many senior congressmen and years of seniority. One party flipped the Presidency, flipped several states and still has a good shot at flipping the Senate.
I had not considered that. It's an obvious variable, when you think about it.
A good win for me.
Quote: redietzWell, if trends hold up, I got two states wrong. I never thought Biden would win Georgia, and I thought Arizona was a toss-up, leaning to Trump. One of my sociologist friends had a good question -- to what degree did Trump's adversarial relationship with the McCain family and denigration of McCain cost him Arizona?
I had not considered that. It's an obvious variable, when you think about it.
I know at least a dozen Vets who voted for Trump the first time and didn't this time, mostly because of McCain.
I wouldn't be surprised if that sentiment was shared by thousands of people statewide. It will be curious to see if the votes for President come in much lower than the hard-fought race for Senate.
What I found interesting is Mark Young is the third astronaut to be elected to the US Senate. Both are pretty exclusive clubs.
In Arizona, we have early voting, mail-in voting and same-day voting. Some interesting numbers from my country. Roughly 41,000 votes were early voting or mail-in, and the split was almost equal with Democrats getting some 19,000. Election Day saw almost 10,000 in-person votes, with well over three out of four being Republican. ( These figures were updated from my original post)
Arizona claims that three weeks of early voting actually cost less than having it all on one day. Here, they print ballots to order. You go in and give your address and the ballot for your area is created for you. They claim the savings from not creating all the extra ballots saves more than hiring people for three weeks.
Quote: redietzThe most interesting direction going forward is that, in my opinion, Trump has the fate of the Republican party still in his hands. If he were to declare for 2024, the Republicans assuredly don't want him (or his daughter or sons) on the ticket. But if they team up to rebuff him, he can take his Trumpster army and the Q-Anon folks and form a third party, which would almost assure a burying of the Republican party for the next decade.
And/but, there are other side effects as well. There are at least 2 Q believers who were just elected to congress. Reapportionment happens between this election and the next one. If you were the GA GOP, would you consider re-drawing the lines to make the outlier's position less stable even if she were nominally in your political party? That's what I would do, even to the point of allowing the seat to flip for 2 years in the (likely) lower turnout mid-term election.
Note to mods: I'm interested in the game theory and not the politics here. If I'm over the line, I'll happily accept redaction, retraction, or deletion as you see fit.
Can it happen? Yes. Will it happen? I'd like to see what sort of betting line comes out of this.
Could anyone imagine a decade ago that Arizona and Georgia might send four Blue guys to the US Senate?
Quote: billryanIf Georgia went blue, as it seems like it did, why would anyone think there isn't a good chance that the blue team wins both Senate seats in the January runoff election?
Based on non presidential races, it seems reasonable to believe for many it was more about wanting the current president out than shifting more democrat.
Quote: mcallister3200Based on non presidential races, it seems reasonable to believe for many it was more about wanting the current president out than shifting more democrat.
The last Georgia Governors race was also razor-thin and supposedly most newcomers to the state are Team Blue. The counties around Atlanta are among the fastest-growing in the nation and the demographics ring blue.
You may well be correct, but this might energize one group more than the other.
I thought Mrs. Clinton would win in a walkover, so my picking is mixed, at best.
Quote: billryanIf Georgia went blue, as it seems like it did, why would anyone think there isn't a good chance that the blue team wins both Senate seats in the January runoff election. 47+2-1=48. If they win the two special elections, 48+2=50, and the VP gets to cast the tiebreaking vote.
Can it happen? Yes. Will it happen? I'd like to see what sort of betting line comes out of this.
Could anyone imagine a decade ago that Arizona and Georgia might send four Blue guys to the US Senate?
In a nutshell, the argument is that republican turnout exceeds democratic turnout in special elections. That may not hold this time since some folks showed up for trump on Tuesday & he isn't on January's ballot. Also, Warnock is a very compelling candidate that may turn out the democratic base & help Ossoff as well.
There's another way to get to 50, which is more fun to think through. There are a few republican senators in states with democratic governors. Could they be appointed in a Biden administration? Pat Toomey won't run for reelection in 2022 - could he be secretary of energy now? Would Susan Collins consider an ambassadorship? Is that stealing the senate?
Quote: mcallister3200Based on non presidential races, it seems reasonable to believe for many it was more about wanting the current president out than shifting more democrat.
I think that's correct, however, I imagine lots of resources from both sides are going to those runoffs in Georgia since they represent control of the Senate.
Strange coincidence that Biden was first elected to the Senate 48 years ago today.
Quote: billryanCBS , CNN, and some other newsgroups are calling Biden the President Elect, after the latest PA results.
Strange coincidence that Biden was first elected to the Senate 48 years ago today.
Fox News is as well.
From what I can tell, the betting odds are based so heavily on the results of the last presidential election and the polls. Then there is just a general sense on the state of the country. Odds were favoring Trump in the beginning of the year when the stock market, employment figures were very strong. Then went against him during the first covid shutdown. Then went back to favoring him after a couple months when it seemed things might come back. Then went against him when it seemed things were stagnant. But the mid-term election is a huge data point that is missing, that could create some possible exploiting.
In 2016 the big thing people learned was how correlated states could be. If something caused people to vote a certain pattern in New Jersey, it is very likely to also effect voting in Arizona. It is probably a lot stronger when looking at neighboring states, especially the mid north block of MI, MN, OH, PA, WI (as an aside, just look at any map and it should be clear that mid west is a bad name). OH was a strong favorite for Trump, MN for Biden. Lets say the other three were all coin flips. That would imply a sweep was a 25% chance. Really had to be much higher than that, probably around 50%. There were definitely ways to look at the map and the odds and find good bets by comparing certain state odds to general election, especially when looking at PA.
As late as Friday night, people were still betting Trump at +1000 to +1500. My hypothesis is that no one is really betting him at those odds, it is simply people cashing out their position on Biden. Possibly thinking Trump still has a chance, or thinking it could take a month for the bets to be resolved. We all think it's dumb to give up profits by hedging, but only about as dumb as paying interest on credit card debt, which millions of people do.
As I was typing the, the AP (and others) just called the race for Biden, by giving him PA, where he is up by 0.5%. But he is up by 1.8% in NV and they won't call that. Only 87% reporting compared to 99% in PA. But in 2016, they called states that were closer with even less of the votes reported. Another thing we can learn from this is that the media is going to be overly conservative at times, maybe that could mean finding some profit in betting.
Biden got 54% in Clark Country (and 51% in the Washoe), but Clark is about 70% of the total votes, and Reno another 20%. Biden could have got 49% in Clark County and still won, so long as those votes taken away went to Kanye instead of Trump
(source I found on google if anyone wants to check my math: https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/nevada/)
Quote: TomGIn NV, the votes they have been counting after election night have been 90% Clark County. Which is why his lead has tripled since Wednesday morning.
Biden got 54% in Clark Country (and 51% in the Washoe), but Clark is about 70% of the total votes, and Reno another 20%. Biden could have got 49% in Clark County and still won, so long as those votes taken away went to Kanye instead of Trump
(source I found on google if anyone wants to check my math: https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/nevada/)
Biden could not win Nevada if he only got 49% of the Clark County vote. If he lost Clark by a single vote, he wouldn't have won. You need to recheck your math.
Quote: billryanBiden could not win Nevada if he only got 49% of the Clark County vote. If he lost Clark by a single vote, he wouldn't have won. You need to recheck your math.
49% is a plurality. ie Biden 49, Trump 47, none of these 4.
