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redietz
redietz
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September 4th, 2020 at 10:38:55 AM permalink
One offshore has "any other candidate" at -375 to win the popular vote versus Donald Trump. Trump is +275 coming back the other way.

It's a real interesting reality check regarding the effect of the electoral college. I found my personal reaction fascinating. At first, I thought, "Wow, +275 is a boatload. That seems heavy." But that's my cultural immersion and acclimatization to a non-democratic process speaking. When I spent 10 seconds thinking about it, the -375 is light. There is almost zero chance Donald Trump wins the popular vote, so the actual proper wager is to lay the -375.

By the way, if you shop around, little arbitrages are indeed available for "winner of the election." The limits are very small, so you're going to make coffee-and-danish or dinner money, but if you want free dinner, shop around.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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September 4th, 2020 at 11:49:03 AM permalink
Quote: redietz

One offshore has "any other candidate" at -375 to win the popular vote versus Donald Trump. Trump is +275 coming back the other way.

It's a real interesting reality check regarding the effect of the electoral college. I found my personal reaction fascinating. At first, I thought, "Wow, +275 is a boatload. That seems heavy." But that's my cultural immersion and acclimatization to a non-democratic process speaking. When I spent 10 seconds thinking about it, the -375 is light. There is almost zero chance Donald Trump wins the popular vote, so the actual proper wager is to lay the -375.

By the way, if you shop around, little arbitrages are indeed available for "winner of the election." The limits are very small, so you're going to make coffee-and-danish or dinner money, but if you want free dinner, shop around.



I would bet $1,000,000 against DJT winning the popular vote if I only had to lay 3.75-1. Anyone wants a piece let me know.
Isn't it illegal for a US citizen to bet on the US election? Where did I hear that?
Minty
Minty
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September 4th, 2020 at 11:08:46 PM permalink
I don't believe so. I know there is a site dedicated to political betting (forgetting if I can cite it here and don't want to look it up right now), but I think it's only possible in its current form due to the size of the wagers allowed. It was discussed on the GWAE podcast.
"Just because I'm not doing anything illegal, doesn't mean I won't have to defend myself someday." -Chip Reese
Mission146
Mission146
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Minty
September 5th, 2020 at 2:46:56 AM permalink
Quote: Minty

I don't believe so. I know there is a site dedicated to political betting (forgetting if I can cite it here and don't want to look it up right now), but I think it's only possible in its current form due to the size of the wagers allowed. It was discussed on the GWAE podcast.



You might be referring to PredictIt; I’ve written about the lines there before, mainly in 2016 and having to do with Impeachment/Removal when all that was going on. One thing about them is that they’re technically non-profit and another is that you’re actually doing binary options as opposed to gambling against the house.
Vultures can't be choosers.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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September 5th, 2020 at 5:09:44 PM permalink
So that's lay $375 to win $100? I think bookies not being able to pay rent will come first.
redietz
redietz
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September 11th, 2020 at 10:24:39 AM permalink
Checked today briefly and saw a +110 and a -105 on Trump versus Biden. I'm sure a more thorough survey would yield better.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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September 11th, 2020 at 9:03:18 PM permalink
Quote: redietz

Checked today briefly and saw a +110 and a -105 on Trump versus Biden. I'm sure a more thorough survey would yield better.



Odds as of 9/11 at 5dimes:

Biden: -120
Trump: EV
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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Mission146
September 12th, 2020 at 5:34:15 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

You might be referring to PredictIt; I’ve written about the lines there before, mainly in 2016 and having to do with Impeachment/Removal when all that was going on. One thing about them is that they’re technically non-profit and another is that you’re actually doing binary options as opposed to gambling against the house.




before anybody places a bet on PredictIt they might want to consider the t&c
PredictIt charges a 5% withdrawal fee on all funds - even on funds you have deposited - this may be unprecedented in the sportsbook markets

it is possible to win a bet and still lose money on PredictIt - for example - which party will win in NY in 2020 -
if you bet Democratic you will have to pay .94 to win .06 or to get paid back $1.00 - see link
because of the fees you would actually lose money even though you might win your bet

this could possibly happen at the racetrack too, if there is a minus pool - but by regulations, racing guarantees a minimum profit of 5% or $2.10 payout on a $2.00 bet so as not to cause this ridiculousness to happen - if there was no adjustment to the takeout the player could lose money on a heavily bet horse - but that won't happen

𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐈𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐨𝐟𝐟 - 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐫𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐟𝐨𝐨𝐥 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐰𝐡𝐨 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐛𝐞 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐬𝐨𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬 - 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐮𝐧𝐬𝐨𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬


here are their t&c:


"Any time you sell a shares for a higher price than you paid, we charge a fee of 10 percent of your profit.
PredictIt charges a 5 percent fee to process withdrawals."


here is the link showing that:.................................https://www.predictit.org/support/faq


here is the link showing a couple different bets where you could win your bet and still lose money.............................https://www.predictit.org/markets




*
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 12, 2020
𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘵: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵............. ᴍᴀʀᴋ ᴛᴡᴀɪɴ
redietz
redietz
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September 22nd, 2020 at 1:04:36 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I would bet $1,000,000 against DJT winning the popular vote if I only had to lay 3.75-1. Anyone wants a piece let me know.
Isn't it illegal for a US citizen to bet on the US election? Where did I hear that?




Hey SOOPOO, we were both spot on regarding this (although I didn't have a million to lay, it being football season and all).

The popular vote odds are up to -445 as of Saturday. The smart money fired it right in there.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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onenickelmiracle
September 22nd, 2020 at 1:24:59 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I would bet $1,000,000 against DJT winning the popular vote if I only had to lay 3.75-1. Anyone wants a piece let me know.
Isn't it illegal for a US citizen to bet on the US election? Where did I hear that?


It's against Nevada gaming regulations for a Nevada sportsbook to accept bets on an election. Even when it got rid of the restriction on betting on things like the Oscars, the "no betting on elections" rule remained in place.

Here are the other states I have looked at so far:
Pennsylvania only allows betting on sporting events.
The only non-sports New Jersey allows betting on are the Oscars, the Emmys, and the Nathan's July 4 hot dog eating contest.

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