When Politics Isn't Politics; It's Gambling

One offshore has "any other candidate" at -375 to win the popular vote versus Donald Trump. Trump is +275 coming back the other way.

It's a real interesting reality check regarding the effect of the electoral college. I found my personal reaction fascinating. At first, I thought, "Wow, +275 is a boatload. That seems heavy." But that's my cultural immersion and acclimatization to a non-democratic process speaking. When I spent 10 seconds thinking about it, the -375 is light. There is almost zero chance Donald Trump wins the popular vote, so the actual proper wager is to lay the -375.

By the way, if you shop around, little arbitrages are indeed available for "winner of the election." The limits are very small, so you're going to make coffee-and-danish or dinner money, but if you want free dinner, shop around.

Quote: redietz

One offshore has "any other candidate" at -375 to win the popular vote versus Donald Trump. Trump is +275 coming back the other way.

It's a real interesting reality check regarding the effect of the electoral college. I found my personal reaction fascinating. At first, I thought, "Wow, +275 is a boatload. That seems heavy." But that's my cultural immersion and acclimatization to a non-democratic process speaking. When I spent 10 seconds thinking about it, the -375 is light. There is almost zero chance Donald Trump wins the popular vote, so the actual proper wager is to lay the -375.

By the way, if you shop around, little arbitrages are indeed available for "winner of the election." The limits are very small, so you're going to make coffee-and-danish or dinner money, but if you want free dinner, shop around.

I would bet $1,000,000 against DJT winning the popular vote if I only had to lay 3.75-1. Anyone wants a piece let me know.
Isn't it illegal for a US citizen to bet on the US election? Where did I hear that?

I don't believe so. I know there is a site dedicated to political betting (forgetting if I can cite it here and don't want to look it up right now), but I think it's only possible in its current form due to the size of the wagers allowed. It was discussed on the GWAE podcast.

Quote: Minty

I don't believe so. I know there is a site dedicated to political betting (forgetting if I can cite it here and don't want to look it up right now), but I think it's only possible in its current form due to the size of the wagers allowed. It was discussed on the GWAE podcast.

You might be referring to PredictIt; I’ve written about the lines there before, mainly in 2016 and having to do with Impeachment/Removal when all that was going on. One thing about them is that they’re technically non-profit and another is that you’re actually doing binary options as opposed to gambling against the house.

So that's lay $375 to win $100? I think bookies not being able to pay rent will come first.

Checked today briefly and saw a +110 and a -105 on Trump versus Biden. I'm sure a more thorough survey would yield better.

Quote: redietz

Checked today briefly and saw a +110 and a -105 on Trump versus Biden. I'm sure a more thorough survey would yield better.

Odds as of 9/11 at 5dimes:

Biden: -120
Trump: EV

Quote: Mission146

You might be referring to PredictIt; I’ve written about the lines there before, mainly in 2016 and having to do with Impeachment/Removal when all that was going on. One thing about them is that they’re technically non-profit and another is that you’re actually doing binary options as opposed to gambling against the house.

before anybody places a bet on PredictIt they might want to consider the t&c
PredictIt charges a 5% withdrawal fee on all funds - even on funds you have deposited - this may be unprecedented in the sportsbook markets

it is possible to win a bet and still lose money on PredictIt - for example - which party will win in NY in 2020 -
if you bet Democratic you will have to pay .94 to win .06 or to get paid back $1.00 - see link
because of the fees you would actually lose money even though you might win your bet

this could possibly happen at the racetrack too, if there is a minus pool - but by regulations, racing guarantees a minimum profit of 5% or $2.10 payout on a $2.00 bet so as not to cause this ridiculousness to happen - if there was no adjustment to the takeout the player could lose money on a heavily bet horse - but that won't happen

𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐈𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐨𝐟𝐟 - 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐫𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐟𝐨𝐨𝐥 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐰𝐡𝐨 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐛𝐞 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐬𝐨𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬 - 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐮𝐧𝐬𝐨𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬


here are their t&c:


"Any time you sell a shares for a higher price than you paid, we charge a fee of 10 percent of your profit.
PredictIt charges a 5 percent fee to process withdrawals."


here is the link showing that:.................................https://www.predictit.org/support/faq


here is the link showing a couple different bets where you could win your bet and still lose money.............................https://www.predictit.org/markets




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