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bigfoot66
bigfoot66
Joined: Feb 5, 2010
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October 8th, 2020 at 12:31:40 AM permalink
Deleted
Vote for Nobody 2020!
Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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October 9th, 2020 at 5:24:29 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Not much change in the election odds over the past four days. Here they are now.

In the European format:

Trump: 2.53
Biden: 1.555

To convert that to American odds:

Trump: +153
Biden: -180

Taking out the juice, it implies Biden has a 62.5% chance of winning.



Let's take another look three days later:

In the European format:

Trump: 2.76
Biden: 1.5

To convert that to American odds:

Trump: +176
Biden: -200

Taking out the juice, it implies Biden has a 65.28% chance of winning.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Torghatten
Torghatten
Joined: Feb 3, 2012
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October 10th, 2020 at 7:09:45 AM permalink
Exchange site:

Biden: Bid 1.51 - Ask 1.52
Trump: Bid 3.00 - Ask 3.05

Matched Ä129 million
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
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October 14th, 2020 at 4:41:10 PM permalink
I saw an intriguing prop offshore today. Will the popular vote winner win the electoral college? "Yes" is -225. I think that's a good wager.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
Wizard
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Wizard
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Thanks for this post from:
FinsRule
October 14th, 2020 at 7:08:55 PM permalink
Quote: redietz

I saw an intriguing prop offshore today. Will the popular vote winner win the electoral college? "Yes" is -225. I think that's a good wager.



I disagree. Biden is almost a lock to win the popular vote. Personally, I would rather lay only 2 to 1 on Biden directly.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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October 14th, 2020 at 7:11:16 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I disagree. Biden is almost a lock to win the popular vote. Personally, I would rather lay only 2 to 1 on Biden directly.



Yes, probably a much better bet.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
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October 14th, 2020 at 8:07:40 PM permalink
You guys are right. It's essentially the same bet as the Biden -220, which is the current line. Only you're laying -225, which makes no sense if you have a -220.

The only way it makes any sense is as an add-on bet if you've hit your limits at -220 at a site and can circumvent the limits with this variation.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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October 15th, 2020 at 12:04:26 PM permalink
Quote: Oct 9 odds

Let's take another look three days later:

In the European format:

Trump: 2.76
Biden: 1.5

To convert that to American odds:

Trump: +176
Biden: -200

Taking out the juice, it implies Biden has a 65.28% chance of winning.



Let's update that with the Oct 15 odds:

In the European format:

Trump: 2.84
Biden: 1.476

To convert that to American odds:

Trump: +184
Biden: -210

Taking out the juice, it implies Biden has a 66.33% chance of winning.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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October 20th, 2020 at 1:40:36 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Let's update that with the Oct 15 odds:

In the European format:

Trump: 2.84
Biden: 1.476

To convert that to American odds:

Trump: +184
Biden: -210

Taking out the juice, it implies Biden has a 66.33% chance of winning.

Which implies Trump has a 1 - .6633 = .3367 chance

Which would mean the juice on Trump is 1 - .3367 * 2.84= 4.4% and on Biden 1 - .6633 * 1.476 = 2.1%.

I think the juice % should be the same no matter who you bet on
Itís all about making that GTA
Torghatten
Torghatten
Joined: Feb 3, 2012
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October 21st, 2020 at 4:18:18 AM permalink
Possible "surewins" atm as i find 4.00 for Trump and 1.57 for Biden.
Edit: gone, looks like Trump's odds was an mistake.
Last edited by: Torghatten on Oct 21, 2020

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