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SOOPOO
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October 31st, 2020 at 3:23:52 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Anyone have any thoughts on the over/under 160 million votes? The under seems to be a lock, so I’m thinking of throwing a few bucks on it.

I’d like to hear some opinions.

. I’d take the under atveven money. I think there were around 132 million votes in 2016? So no way to tell how many of this huge surge of early voters are just early, versus new. The only word I would not use in this election is ‘lock’.
Ace2
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November 2nd, 2020 at 4:09:39 PM permalink
At the moment, Bovada’s odds on Biden/Trump are -180 / + 150 (quite different from UK odds). On Betfair Trump is at 2.92 or +192 in American format.

So you can guarantee a 1.5 % profit by backing Biden at -180 and Trump at +192
It’s all about making that GTA
FinsRule
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November 2nd, 2020 at 4:27:32 PM permalink
You can get +200 on “Winner of popular vote doesn’t win election” which is pretty much the same thing as Trump.
billryan
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November 2nd, 2020 at 5:13:41 PM permalink
I'm thinking 165-170 million, so I'd be all over the over in that bet. My only concern is how many votes will be thrown out.
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Wizard
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November 3rd, 2020 at 4:08:59 AM permalink
Good election morning, WoV!

According to the betting odds, Trumps chances have increased. Here are the current Betfair odds:

Trump: 2.66
Biden: 1.6

To convert that to the US format:

Trump: +166
Biden -167

In other words, Trump's chances are 37.6%. Just a few days ago they were 35%.

Reminder, no political comments. It's fine to discuss the probability of either candidate winning and current odds, but no opinions of a political nature may be expressed.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
unJon
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November 3rd, 2020 at 4:17:29 AM permalink
Found someone yesterday willing to offer Biden -130 so plopped a large (for me) bet down.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wizard
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November 3rd, 2020 at 4:47:26 AM permalink
This has probably be said before by the commentators, but here are the important states to watch tonight.

Notation: PT(x) = Probability Trump wins state x.

Southern Three -- If Biden can flip FL, GA, or NC, then Biden wins the whole thing. However, all three are favored to go for Trump. PT(FL) = 60.6%, PT(GA) = 62.2%, PT(NC) = 57.2%.

Must win for Biden -- Biden should be able to flip MI, WI, and NV. If he can't flip all three, I don't see a path for Biden to win. The one of these to watch closely is Wisconsin, PT(WI) = 31.1%.

Must win for Trump -- Ohio. PT(OH) = 69.6%. If Trump loses Ohio, he will lose the whole thing.

On the fence -- If all the predictions above prove correct, then it comes down to PA and AZ. Trump would need to win both to win the election. PT(AZ) = 51%, PT(PA)=39%.

There is also a chance of an electoral college tie, depending on how the districts in Maine and Nebraska fall.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AZDuffman
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November 3rd, 2020 at 4:55:11 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

This has probably be said before by the commentators, but here are the important states to watch tonight.

Notation: PT(x) = Probability Trump wins state x.

Southern Three -- If Biden can flip FL, GA, or NC, then Biden wins the whole thing. However, all three are favored to go for Trump. PT(FL) = 60.6%, PT(GA) = 62.2%, PT(NC) = 57.2%.

Must win for Biden -- Biden should be able to flip MI, WI, and NV. If he can't flip all three, I don't see a path for Biden to win. The one of these to watch closely is Wisconsin, PT(WI) = 31.1%.

Must win for Trump -- Ohio. PT(OH) = 69.6%. If Trump loses Ohio, he will lose the whole thing.

On the fence -- If all the predictions above prove correct, then it comes down to PA and AZ. Trump would need to win both to win the election. PT(AZ) = 51%, PT(PA)=39%.

There is also a chance of an electoral college tie, depending on how the districts in Maine and Nebraska fall.




Flip Nevada? I thought you guys went for Hillary in 2016?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Gialmere
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November 3rd, 2020 at 10:57:18 AM permalink
Some mystery British punter has just bet $5,000,000 on Trump winning. It's thought to be the largest political wager ever made.

Full Story at The Sun
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
pwcrabb
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November 3rd, 2020 at 2:51:02 PM permalink
Website Oddschecker.com provides news of optimal lines offered by actual brokers. I am amazed that the lines for National and State Electoral outcomes changed very little over the past seven weeks.

That British punter with the whale wager on Trump got a good price.
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redietz
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November 3rd, 2020 at 3:24:18 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Found someone yesterday willing to offer Biden -130 so plopped a large (for me) bet down.



That's what I laid about six weeks ago.

I wanted to mention -- the late surge of Trump money may be due to people getting better odds early (in this case, -130 on Biden), and they are hammering Trump late as a means to an optimal auto-profit. If I had mid four digits on up on Biden, that's what I would have done, but I have just three digits at the -130, so I'm not auto-profiting that.

I suspect the mega-wagers of a million pounds on up are primarily auto-profit hedges, more or less. Similar to money line moves in many Super Bowls where folks have one side as a long shot future.

Some people are (internationally) going to make a killing on this by laying -130 and coming back with a +180 or better. That's partly why volume will be through the roof. A lot of people have no risk and all profit.
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Wizard
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November 3rd, 2020 at 4:06:47 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Flip Nevada? I thought you guys went for Hillary in 2016?



You're right, my mistake. Make it a "must hold onto" for Biden.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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November 3rd, 2020 at 4:08:07 PM permalink
Quote: redietz


I suspect the mega-wagers of a million pounds on up are primarily auto-profit hedges, more or less. Similar to money line moves in many Super Bowls where folks have one side as a long shot future.



Some of my action is with someone hedging, who thinks his business will do better under Biden.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
MJGolf
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November 3rd, 2020 at 4:10:51 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Odds as of 9/11 at 5dimes:

Biden: -120
Trump: EV



Seems to mirror most polls...................accuracy of them, though, I hope is like Clinton's lead in 2016. LOL
Wizard
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November 3rd, 2020 at 4:13:29 PM permalink
4:11 PST and some counties have already reported. Indiana called for Trump, but no big surprise there. Betting odds suggest Biden has a 68% chance. That is up from 65% yesterday.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
terapined
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November 3rd, 2020 at 5:01:24 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

4:11 PST and some counties have already reported. Indiana called for Trump, but no big surprise there. Betting odds suggest Biden has a 68% chance. That is up from 65% yesterday.


Watching FL closely
Biden was leading
With about 50% of vote counted, Trump just took a slight lead
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
Wizard
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November 3rd, 2020 at 5:04:15 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

4:11 PST and some counties have already reported. Indiana called for Trump, but no big surprise there. Betting odds suggest Biden has a 68% chance. That is up from 65% yesterday.



5:03 and Trump is doing well. Biden's chances down to 55.2%.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
mcallister3200
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November 3rd, 2020 at 5:23:39 PM permalink
About 12 minutes ago Michael Lopez who works in analytics for nfl.com tweeted that at this time 4 years ago betting markets were about 95% Hilldawg with Clinton at -1800. Might be a good time for a reminder with BOTH sides taking victory laps at the moment.
Wizard
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November 3rd, 2020 at 5:49:19 PM permalink
I think I'll keep a running tally of Biden's chances according to the betting market. Times are Pacific.

4:11 PM 68%
5:03 55.2%
5:47 58.8%
6:12 54.6%
6:26 47.2%
6:36 34.2%
6:45 35.6%
7:04 25.0%
7:16 23.8%
7:28 30.1%
7:50 32.3%
8:16 30.3%
8:28 40.3%
8:45 43.9%
9:10 39.6%
9:45 45.5%
11:50 33.3%
Nov 4
6:00 AM 70.9%
6:17 78.1%
7:25 81.3%
7:52 82.0%
12:18 PM 80.0%
2:28 85.5%
3:17 88.5%
4:48 87.7%
8:30 90.1%
Nov 5
7:25 AM 88.5%
11:40 AM 92.4%
Nov 6
5:34 AM 93.5%
7:40 AM 96.2%
10:19 AM 97.1%
Nov 7
9:29 AM 97.1%
6:44 PM 95.5%
Nov 8
9:16 AM 95.3%
7:16 PM 94.9%
Nov 9
5:55 AM 93.9%
Nov 10
5:01 AM 91.1%
Nov 11
5:13 AM 90.7%
5:10 PM 90.2%
Nov 12
6:26 AM 90.7%
5:01 PM 92.2%
Nov 13
5:37 AM 92.5%
4:56 PM 93.4%
Nov 14
6:38 AM 92.7%
1:33 PM 93.8%
Nov 15
6:58 AM 93.8%
5:45 PM 93.7%
Nov 16
6:07 AM 93.8%
Nov 17
7:24 AM 94.4%
8:43 PM 94.4%
Nov 18
5:03 AM 95.3%
Nov 21
6:55 AM 96.1%
Nov 22
7:13 PM 95.9%
Nov 23
6:41 AM 95.7%
6:01 PM 96.4%
Nov 24
12:48 PM 97.1%
Nov 25
10:31 AM 96.4%
4:56 PM 93.4%
Nov 26
2:05 PM 93.7%
Nov 27
8:30 AM 94.4%
8:38 PM 94.7%
Nov 30
6:58 AM 94.7%
Dec 3
1:36 PM 97.0%
Dec 6
8:52 AM 96.5%
Dec 7
7:45 AM 95.9%
Dec 8
2:31 PM 94.8%
Dec 9
8:14 AM 95.3%
Dec 10
6:08 PM 94.7%
Dec 11
3:50 PM 96.2%
Dec 12
5:26 AM 97.1%
Dec 13
8:54 PM 97.1%
Last edited by: Wizard on Dec 13, 2020
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Torghatten
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November 3rd, 2020 at 6:23:22 PM permalink
Trump just became favorite on Betfair.
Ace2
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November 3rd, 2020 at 6:39:53 PM permalink
Trump currently 1.52 on Betfair. That’s -192.

Essentially an exact reversal from Biden -200 a few hours ago
It’s all about making that GTA
Keyser
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November 3rd, 2020 at 6:40:13 PM permalink
If anyone is shocked, then perhaps it's time to realize that you shouldn't have trusted the mainstream media propaganda machine.
mcallister3200
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November 3rd, 2020 at 6:43:18 PM permalink
Silver is pumping out plenty of excuses already. I’m guessing there’s no concession tonight
Ace2
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November 3rd, 2020 at 6:43:40 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

If anyone is shocked, then perhaps it's time to realize that you shouldn't have trusted the mainstream media propaganda machine.

This might be the quintessential case of “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me”

If re-election happens, at least we can toss out the idea of 2016 being an aberration...the “one and only time” the “experts” got it wrong. And hopefully a lot more people will wake up
It’s all about making that GTA
Keyser
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November 3rd, 2020 at 6:51:09 PM permalink
Silver takes himself a bit too seriously. He's just another pollster in a vast sea of pollsters.
rxwine
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November 3rd, 2020 at 7:08:16 PM permalink
I would like to see some alternate maps as drawn by population at least for election speculation. For instance the Las Vegas/Clark county area would be shown as 75% of the land area of Nevada as it is 75% of the population. Then more color would actually represent more votes and vice versa.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
Ace2
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November 3rd, 2020 at 7:13:46 PM permalink
Betfair Update

Biden + 320
Trump -333
It’s all about making that GTA
AZDuffman
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November 3rd, 2020 at 7:55:22 PM permalink
The Euro has went way down since the polls started closing.

Chinese currency supposedly getting killed.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Keyser
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November 3rd, 2020 at 8:06:17 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

The Euro has went way down since the polls started closing.

Chinese currency supposedly getting killed.



Karma
AZDuffman
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November 3rd, 2020 at 8:13:19 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

Karma



The currency markets sometimes really tune in. Swiss Franc killed the USD once literally as soon as Obama started an address. No wonder they heavily marked ForEx trading jobs. talk about stress.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Wizard
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November 3rd, 2020 at 8:18:49 PM permalink
How are stock market futures?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ace2
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November 3rd, 2020 at 8:26:10 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

How are stock market futures?

S&P up 1.76%
It’s all about making that GTA
Wizard
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November 3rd, 2020 at 8:48:52 PM permalink
Thanks, Ace.

Reminder that I am keeping a running list of Biden's chances in this post.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
terapined
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November 3rd, 2020 at 8:52:36 PM permalink
Looks like Arizona is the first to flip to Biden
Thats pretty big
I think another state that Trump won in 2016 will flip due to uncounted mail votes
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
unJon
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November 3rd, 2020 at 8:55:32 PM permalink
The variance in betting odds is ridiculous so many arb chances.

There was a SCOTUS decision tossing out any WI ballots received after today. Those could be the difference in WI and WI could be the difference in the election. Super interesting.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wizard
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November 3rd, 2020 at 9:26:05 PM permalink
So far every state has gone down as I predicted in this DT post, that forecast 290 for Biden.

It's easy to say this will come down to MI, WI, and PA.

Biden can win with all three, PA and WI, PA and MI. If Biden gets MI and WI, but not PA, then it will come down the districts in ME and NE. There could be an electoral college tie, which should go to Trump.

I have a sinking feeling this one will be decided in the courts, again.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
rxwine
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November 3rd, 2020 at 9:46:18 PM permalink
Even though I don't play the horses, these election days really do feel like watching a horse race. Only thing is rounding the last corner the whole thing could start going in slow motion. Or maybe I should compare the last part to waiting for the photo finish to process.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
FinsRule
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November 3rd, 2020 at 9:53:23 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

So far every state has gone down as I predicted in this DT post, that forecast 290 for Biden.

It's easy to say this will come down to MI, WI, and PA.

Biden can win with all three, PA and WI, PA and MI. If Biden gets MI and WI, but not PA, then it will come down the districts in ME and NE. There could be an electoral college tie, which should go to Trump.

I have a sinking feeling this one will be decided in the courts, again.



Georgia still seems in play...
ChumpChange
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November 3rd, 2020 at 11:17:45 PM permalink
Even if Biden wins, if the GOP retains the Senate, this will be another 4 year long train wreck starting where we already are.
ChumpChange
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November 3rd, 2020 at 11:46:11 PM permalink
With millions of votes still uncounted, Trump falsely says he won. Nevada officials say it will take several days to count the votes. Democracy by vote is being voided by Trump & the GOP, this is a dictatorship waiting for a Supreme Court to sanction it.
RogerKint
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November 4th, 2020 at 12:06:18 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

With millions of votes still uncounted, Trump falsely says he won. Nevada officials say it will take several days to count the votes. Democracy by vote is being voided by Trump & the GOP, this is a dictatorship waiting for a Supreme Court to sanction it.



We get it. You're angry. Are you gonna take your ball and go home now?
100% risk of ruin
Wizard
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November 4th, 2020 at 12:09:51 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

With millions of votes still uncounted, Trump falsely says he won. Nevada officials say it will take several days to count the votes. Democracy by vote is being voided by Trump & the GOP, this is a dictatorship waiting for a Supreme Court to sanction it.



Political statement violation -- Three-day suspension
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Torghatten
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November 4th, 2020 at 2:20:50 AM permalink
Biden just became favorite again on Betfair. 1.96 vs 2.02
unJon
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November 4th, 2020 at 2:34:24 AM permalink
Betfair at 1.91 to 1.91. A pick ‘em.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
FinsRule
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November 4th, 2020 at 2:40:15 AM permalink
This is crazy. A lot of money was out there to be made if you could handle the swings. Trump was -600! at one point and is now a slight (extremely slight) dog.

I think this shows that betting markets are terrible predictors of elections. At least at interpreting live data.
FinsRule
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November 4th, 2020 at 3:20:16 AM permalink
The odds are now identical to what they were 24 hours ago. Which I find hilarious. Maybe because I’m on less than 3 hours of sleep...
OnceDear
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November 4th, 2020 at 3:22:11 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

The Euro has went way down since the polls started closing.

Chinese currency supposedly getting killed.

Nonsense

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=12h
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=5Y

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CNY&to=USD&view=12h
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CNY&to=USD&view=5Y
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unJon
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November 4th, 2020 at 3:36:14 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

This is crazy. A lot of money was out there to be made if you could handle the swings. Trump was -600! at one point and is now a slight (extremely slight) dog.

I think this shows that betting markets are terrible predictors of elections. At least at interpreting live data.



I wonder how much money was there to be made on this swings. My gut tells me it was a small handle but I dunno.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AZDuffman
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November 4th, 2020 at 3:38:57 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

I wonder how much money was there to be made on this swings. My gut tells me it was a small handle but I dunno.



If betting live sports is any indication you would have to either be near perfect at predicting or just bet the person you liked and hope for the best.

I wonder about that late punter who laid millions on Trump.

Does any book offer an "EC Point Spread?"
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
unJon
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November 4th, 2020 at 3:45:16 AM permalink
Betfair showing
Biden 1.44 (-227)
Trump 2.75 (+175)
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
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