When Politics Isn't Politics; It's Gambling
It's a real interesting reality check regarding the effect of the electoral college. I found my personal reaction fascinating. At first, I thought, "Wow, +275 is a boatload. That seems heavy." But that's my cultural immersion and acclimatization to a non-democratic process speaking. When I spent 10 seconds thinking about it, the -375 is light. There is almost zero chance Donald Trump wins the popular vote, so the actual proper wager is to lay the -375.
By the way, if you shop around, little arbitrages are indeed available for "winner of the election." The limits are very small, so you're going to make coffee-and-danish or dinner money, but if you want free dinner, shop around.
Quote: redietzOne offshore has "any other candidate" at -375 to win the popular vote versus Donald Trump. Trump is +275 coming back the other way.
It's a real interesting reality check regarding the effect of the electoral college. I found my personal reaction fascinating. At first, I thought, "Wow, +275 is a boatload. That seems heavy." But that's my cultural immersion and acclimatization to a non-democratic process speaking. When I spent 10 seconds thinking about it, the -375 is light. There is almost zero chance Donald Trump wins the popular vote, so the actual proper wager is to lay the -375.
By the way, if you shop around, little arbitrages are indeed available for "winner of the election." The limits are very small, so you're going to make coffee-and-danish or dinner money, but if you want free dinner, shop around.
I would bet $1,000,000 against DJT winning the popular vote if I only had to lay 3.75-1. Anyone wants a piece let me know.
Isn't it illegal for a US citizen to bet on the US election? Where did I hear that?
Quote: MintyI don't believe so. I know there is a site dedicated to political betting (forgetting if I can cite it here and don't want to look it up right now), but I think it's only possible in its current form due to the size of the wagers allowed. It was discussed on the GWAE podcast.
You might be referring to PredictIt; I’ve written about the lines there before, mainly in 2016 and having to do with Impeachment/Removal when all that was going on. One thing about them is that they’re technically non-profit and another is that you’re actually doing binary options as opposed to gambling against the house.
Quote: redietzChecked today briefly and saw a +110 and a -105 on Trump versus Biden. I'm sure a more thorough survey would yield better.
Odds as of 9/11 at 5dimes:
Biden: -120
Trump: EV
Quote: Mission146You might be referring to PredictIt; I’ve written about the lines there before, mainly in 2016 and having to do with Impeachment/Removal when all that was going on. One thing about them is that they’re technically non-profit and another is that you’re actually doing binary options as opposed to gambling against the house.
before anybody places a bet on PredictIt they might want to consider the t&c
PredictIt charges a 5% withdrawal fee on all funds - even on funds you have deposited - this may be unprecedented in the sportsbook markets
it is possible to win a bet and still lose money on PredictIt - for example - which party will win in NY in 2020 -
if you bet Democratic you will have to pay .94 to win .06 or to get paid back $1.00 - see link
because of the fees you would actually lose money even though you might win your bet
this could possibly happen at the racetrack too, if there is a minus pool - but by regulations, racing guarantees a minimum profit of 5% or $2.10 payout on a $2.00 bet so as not to cause this ridiculousness to happen - if there was no adjustment to the takeout the player could lose money on a heavily bet horse - but that won't happen
𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐈𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐨𝐟𝐟 - 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐫𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐟𝐨𝐨𝐥 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐰𝐡𝐨 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐛𝐞 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐬𝐨𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬 - 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐮𝐧𝐬𝐨𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬
here are their t&c:
"Any time you sell a shares for a higher price than you paid, we charge a fee of 10 percent of your profit.
PredictIt charges a 5 percent fee to process withdrawals."
here is the link showing that:.................................https://www.predictit.org/support/faq
here is the link showing a couple different bets where you could win your bet and still lose money.............................https://www.predictit.org/markets
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Quote: SOOPOOI would bet $1,000,000 against DJT winning the popular vote if I only had to lay 3.75-1. Anyone wants a piece let me know.
Isn't it illegal for a US citizen to bet on the US election? Where did I hear that?
Hey SOOPOO, we were both spot on regarding this (although I didn't have a million to lay, it being football season and all).
The popular vote odds are up to -445 as of Saturday. The smart money fired it right in there.
Quote: SOOPOOI would bet $1,000,000 against DJT winning the popular vote if I only had to lay 3.75-1. Anyone wants a piece let me know.
Isn't it illegal for a US citizen to bet on the US election? Where did I hear that?
It's against Nevada gaming regulations for a Nevada sportsbook to accept bets on an election. Even when it got rid of the restriction on betting on things like the Oscars, the "no betting on elections" rule remained in place.
Here are the other states I have looked at so far:
Pennsylvania only allows betting on sporting events.
The only non-sports New Jersey allows betting on are the Oscars, the Emmys, and the Nathan's July 4 hot dog eating contest.
Quote: ThatDonGuyIt's against Nevada gaming regulations for a Nevada sportsbook to accept bets on an election. Even when it got rid of the restriction on betting on things like the Oscars, the "no betting on elections" rule remained in place.
Here are the other states I have looked at so far:
Pennsylvania only allows betting on sporting events.
The only non-sports New Jersey allows betting on are the Oscars, the Emmys, and the Nathan's July 4 hot dog eating contest.
The offshores seem to have low limits, some $500, some 1K. I do remember being able to get a couple thousand down maybe two elections ago offshore, but haven't really done anything since. I think I took somebody at long odds to win a nomination, it happened, and then I hedged the thing in the actual election for auto-profit.
Can anyone do a quick survey and see what the various offshore limits are? I assume Pinnacle is probably allowing substantial betting. And anybody with in-person access to UK books should assuredly be able to get whatever they want down.
The lines are really that tight?Quote: SOOPOOAfter the ‘debate?’ last night, the betting odds favored Biden more than they did before the fireside chat..... Biden now 60% to win. Like -142 while Trump is +138.
ETA: meaning just 6 points between the two lines.
Quote: lilredroosterbefore anybody places a bet on PredictIt they might want to consider the t&c
PredictIt charges a 5% withdrawal fee on all funds - even on funds you have deposited - this may be unprecedented in the sportsbook markets
it is possible to win a bet and still lose money on PredictIt - for example - which party will win in NY in 2020 -
if you bet Democratic you will have to pay .94 to win .06 or to get paid back $1.00 - see link
because of the fees you would actually lose money even though you might win your bet
this could possibly happen at the racetrack too, if there is a minus pool - but by regulations, racing guarantees a minimum profit of 5% or $2.10 payout on a $2.00 bet so as not to cause this ridiculousness to happen - if there was no adjustment to the takeout the player could lose money on a heavily bet horse - but that won't happen
𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐈𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐨𝐟𝐟 - 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐫𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐟𝐨𝐨𝐥 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐰𝐡𝐨 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐛𝐞 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐬𝐨𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬 - 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐮𝐧𝐬𝐨𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬
here are their t&c:
"Any time you sell a shares for a higher price than you paid, we charge a fee of 10 percent of your profit.
PredictIt charges a 5 percent fee to process withdrawals."
here is the link showing that:.................................https://www.predictit.org/support/faq
here is the link showing a couple different bets where you could win your bet and still lose money.............................https://www.predictit.org/markets
*
Absolutely, I agree 100%. I make it an effort to cover the effective Odds (given the cut PredictIt takes) in any article that I have written that mentions Predictit.
Here's an example of an article where I got into PredictIt fees and how they basically impact the implied odds:
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/the-probability-of-a-trump-impeachment/
That one was actually on the question of him remaining in office throughout 2017, rather than Impeachment. Did you know there was a time when you could buy the, "Yes," for $0.80 on him remaining in office throughout 2017? In fact, August of 2017 the article was published...so that was just free money.
I probably should talk about the fees in every political-related betting article, but it's tough to do because it requires basically an entire section to explain how the fees end up working. It wouldn't be so bad if not for the cash out fee in addition to the 10% of the amount won. I wish it was just one fee or the other.
In many articles, I've also compared the effective implied odds you would need to win at PredictIt to those of offshore sportsbooks, often side by side.
Definitely a good warning, though, and good that you brought the fees up in this thread.
Quote: SOOPOOAfter the ‘debate?’ last night, the betting odds favored Biden more than they did before the fireside chat..... Biden now 60% to win. Like -142 while Trump is +138.
I'm searching for straggling lines right now. My conclusion is the same as the bettors in general. Barring state legislatures deciding to hijack the process, I think you can stick a fork in the president after last night.
I'm thinking 2K or thereabouts. That's it. Because I need Biden to stay alive for five weeks and he looks like the guy in the chair in Weekend at Bernie's (not that Bernie). And because I don't trust the process if everything winds up in court. But it's worth a few bucks if I can find some straggling lines.
(Ten minutes later). Lines are not straggling -- LOL. Biden up to -158 one place and -150 everywhere. The odds of a Democrat sweep of Senate/House/Presidency are now around even money. Odds are as high as -145 for Democrats to win Senate.
I think the money is correct.
(And five minutes later). The best I can do is -130, but the limit is real low. I'll do it and continue to shop.
Biden -120
Trump EV
Now they are:
Biden -155
Trump +135
This suggests Trumps chances fell from 47.62% to 40.82% due to the debate.
Quote: WizardBefore the debate, the 5dimes lines were:
Biden -120
Trump EV
Now they are:
Biden -155
Trump +135
This suggests Trumps chances fell from 47.62% to 40.82% due to the debate.
Is that for the popular vote or the Electoral College?
Quote: billryanIs that for the popular vote or the Electoral College?
Electoral college. Biden is almost a lock to win the popular vote.
Quote: WizardElectoral college. Biden is almost a lock to win the popular vote.
I see a -500 for the popular vote as the best available, and that is light. Limit is low, however, so I guess they don't mind posting it.
I have a small bet that Mr. B wins 320 plus EC votes. I'm getting 5-1.
Without getting into the politics of it, I believe this will be the last election where the winner of the popular vote won't win the election.
The Interstate Compact has 15 states signed up, and three more are pending. One more medium-sized state and the EC will be neutered.
I had never heard of the Interstate Compact before. Super interesting. Though the things I’ve read just now lead me to conclude the probability it goes into effect any time soon is not very high.Quote: billryanAs I look at the map, there is a possibility, although it is small, of a 269 all tie.
I have a small bet that Mr. B wins 320 plus EC votes. I'm getting 5-1.
Without getting into the politics of it, I believe this will be the last election where the winner of the popular vote won't win the election.
The Interstate Compact has 15 states signed up, and three more are pending. One more medium-sized state and the EC will be neutered.
Quote: unJonI had never heard of the Interstate Compact before. Super interesting. Though the things I’ve read just now lead me to conclude the probability it goes into effect any time soon is not very high.
If you get into the math of it, the electoral college, given the country's current and future demographics, is clearly a racist instrument. There are sites with the math roughly figured, where you can see the actual effects of the electoral college, with residency by state assigning you more or less of a per-person clout than a true democracy's 1.0. Factoring in the ethnic composition of states, you wind up with non-whites assigned well below the 1.0 figure. Whatever rationale you give for the reason behind it, the consequences are crustal clear.
In a sense, the Senate provides a similar but amplified effect, with two seats per state and the states ranging from a million to 40 million and having equitable clout, which is an incredible distortion of a true democracy's 1.0. If Montana has, in effect, 40 times the relative per person clout of California, one is reminded of Orwell's Animal Farm. All animals are equal, but the animals in white rural places are way, way more equal than others.
Quote: unJonI had never heard of the Interstate Compact before. Super interesting. Though the things I’ve read just now lead me to conclude the probability it goes into effect any time soon is not very high.
I have been following it for a while. Some people think that it would be challenged as unconstitutional by the "No state shall enter into any compact with any other state" clause of the Constitution (Article I, Section 10 - but then again, Article II, Section 1 says that each state has the right to decide on its own how its electors are selected (there is no requirement that votes have anything to do with it), so even if it was declared unconstitutional, nothing prevents the states from passing it independently, although this does run the risk that not enough states would pass it again to guarantee that the popular vote winner gets 270 electoral votes).
My main problem with it: nothing stops a state from passing a law saying, in effect, "Until the day after the electoral votes are counted in Congress, or January 21 following a Presidential election, whichever comes first, the only official announcement from this state concerning the popular vote shall be (a) the number of votes cast and (b) the name of the candidate that received the most votes." The compact depends on every state announcing how many votes each candidate got, and there is no way to mandate that the other states make their results public.
I get 47.83% before and 41.18% afterQuote: WizardBefore the debate, the 5dimes lines were:
Biden -120
Trump EV
Now they are:
Biden -155
Trump +135
This suggests Trumps chances fell from 47.62% to 40.82% due to the debate.
Quote: WizardBefore the debate, the 5dimes lines were:
Biden -120
Trump EV
Now they are:
Biden -155
Trump +135
This suggests Trumps chances fell from 47.62% to 40.82% due to the debate.
Two days later, the 5dimes lines are down, but Pinnacle lines are:
Trump 2.520 for 1
Biden 1.537 for 1
Taking the juice out, it suggests Trumps chances are now 37.31%.
Reminder to the forum against political talk except to the extent it directly is gambling related.
To follow up an earlier comment of mine about Biden looking like Weekend at Bernie's. Now we have two presidential candidates in the Weekend at Bernie's category.
My blog entries on the U.S. pandemic response were labeled, "Tales from the Asylum." A better title does not come to mind.
Two entirely different gauges. One is a handicap system. The other is not.
The reality that this is the math, right there in your face, should dispel any notions that the electoral college is a non-handicap system.
Quote: Ace2I get 47.83% before and 41.18% after
What is your calculation?
With Biden -120 and Trump even, the implied odds (before removing the juice) are 6/11 and 1/2 respectively. The total is 23/22 so the juice is 1/23. Therefore the “free” implied odds of B winning are 6/11 * 22/23 = 52.17% and 1/2 * 22/23 = 47.83% for TQuote: WizardWhat is your calculation?
How did you get to 47.62% for T ?
Quote: Ace2With Biden -120 and Trump even, the implied odds (before removing the juice) are 6/11 and 1/2 respectively. The total is 23/22 so the juice is 1/23. Therefore the “free” implied odds of T winning are 1/2 * 22/23 = 47.83% and 6/11 * 22/23 = 52.17% for B
How did you get to your numbers ?
I agree with this. Though typo that the Juice is 1/22 not 1/23.
No typo. For every 23 units the sportsbook takes in they payout 22. They keep 1/23 of the handle as juiceQuote: unJonI agree with this. Though typo that the Juice is 1/22 not 1/23.
Quote: Ace2No typo. For every 23 units the sportsbook takes in they payout 22. They keep 1/23 of the handle as juice
Right. Withdrawn.
How did you calculate that ?Quote: WizardTrump 2.520 for 1
Biden 1.537 for 1
Taking the juice out, it suggests Trumps chances are now 37.31%. .
Quote: Ace2No typo. For every 23 units the sportsbook takes in they payout 22. They keep 1/23 of the handle as juice
Where does the 23 come from?
If every bet was laying 11 to win 10 and action was perfectly balanced, then if the book took an $11 bet on both sides of a game, then would take in $22 and pay the winner $21. Thus, the would keep 1/22 of the action.
Thats for -110/-110 balanced action. But we’re talking about -120/Even unbalanced action (more money on Biden).Quote: WizardWhere does the 23 come from?
If every bet was laying 11 to win 10 and action was perfectly balanced, then if the book took an $11 bet on both sides of a game, then would take in $22 and pay the winner $21. Thus, the would keep 1/22 of the action.
The unadjusted odds are 6/11 and 1/2, which total 23/22. Book takes in $23 and pays out $22
Quote: Ace2How did you calculate that ?
As mentioned, the odds now are:
Trump 2.520 for 1
Biden 1.537 for 1
Looking at just the Trump line, before adjusting for the juice, it suggested 1 / 2.52= 39.68% chance of winning.
Looking at just the Biden line, it suggests Biden's chances are 1/1.537 = 65.06%, which would mean 34.94% to Trump.
Taking the average, to remove the juice, is 37.31%.
Quote: London (CNN Business)All bets are off after President Donald Trump contracted Covid-19 — at least according to UK bookmakers.
Ladbrokes and William Hill (WIMHY) said Friday that they would pause all wagers on the outcome of the US election in November until more information becomes available about the president's condition.
"This is standard procedure and we wish Donald and Melania Trump well," a spokesperson for Ladbrokes said in a statement.
74% trump to complete his first term (15%+ edge).
91% biden doesn't drop out by 11/1 (7%+ edge)
84% dems don't win by 280+ electoral votes (10%+ edge)
91% pelosi doesn't become acting president on 1/20 (7%+ edge)
86% trump doesn't resign in first term (10%+ edge)
96% michelle obama doesn't run for president in 2020 (3.8% edge)
97% Epstein doesn't get pardoned in trump's first term (2.85% edge)
In the European format:
Trump: 2.53
Biden: 1.555
To convert that to American odds:
Trump: +153
Biden: -180
Taking out the juice, it implies Biden has a 62.5% chance of winning.
Usual reminder -- No political statements.
Quote: WizardNot much change in the election odds over the past four days. Here they are now.
In the European format:
Trump: 2.53
Biden: 1.555
To convert that to American odds:
Trump: +153
Biden: -180
Taking out the juice, it implies Biden has a 62.5% chance of winning.
Usual reminder -- No political statements.
If I am understanding this correctly, a month out from the election the sitting President has about a one in three shot of being re-elected by these lines. What were the odds last election? Has a sitting President ever been the underdog?
Awhile back, I reported here that the "Blue Sweep" odds had come way down, to as low as +110 or thereabouts, although there were some +130 and +135's out there. Anyway, Goldman Sachs came out with some statements today saying that the best economic outcome would be a Blue Sweep. Goldman Sachs saying this was rather stunning.
So if you're interested in betting a Blue Sweep (House, Senate, Prez), best to do so today, as in right now. Found it.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/business/economy-election-blue-wave-goldman-sachs/index.html
Quote: billryanIf I am understanding this correctly, a month out from the election the sitting President has about a one in three shot of being re-elected by these lines.
Yep.
Quote:What were the odds last election?
Trump was about an 8 to 1 underdog.
Quote:Has a sitting President ever been the underdog?
Carter must have been. I know George HW Bush was. As I recall a month out you could have got about +160 on Bush 41.
Quote: ChumpChangeHe's gonna steal the election and there will never be another one.
Warning given for making a political statement.
Quote: WizardYep.
Trump was about an 8 to 1 underdog.
Carter must have been. I know George HW Bush was. As I recall a month out you could have got about +160 on Bush 41.
I want to make a qualified correction to the odds statement. Prior to the actual GOP primary being wrapped up, he may have been an 8-1 dog, but when the actual versus Hilary began, the odds swung back and forth enough that, if you had substantial cash stashed off shore or in the UK books, you could have auto-profited again and again.
Trump swung between a very slight dog and a 2-1 dog for months, as each major news piece see-sawed the numbers. I happen to know because I blew it, missing every opportunity to jam money first one way, then the other. What made it particularly galling was that I had managed to autoprofit the previous election. Hilary vs. Trump the final three months provided multiple chances to do the same, and I never pulled the trigger.
The last US presidential election demonstrated that polls and election odds are now meaningless. There’s so much fake news and propaganda, much of it coming from what are supposed to be reliable sources
One thing you can be sure of: whatever the polls/odds say Trump’s chance of winning is, the actual chance is much, much higher
Last election, I bet on Trump at 5 to 1 in mid-October. Probably the best bet I’ve ever made in terms of EV...I was thinking he had about a 50% chance
Quote: WizardYep.
Trump was about an 8 to 1 underdog.
Carter must have been. I know George HW Bush was. As I recall a month out you could have got about +160 on Bush 41.
I don't know about the betting lines, but in 1980, John Anderson got more than 20% in the early polls and didn't really fade until late Summer. For most of the summer, it looked like he would split the Republican vote with Reagan as many Republicans thought RR was too extreme. As he got more exposure, he attracted a lot of people who had been very worried about him. I worked for the Anderson campaign and it was gut-wrenching watching people we were counting on for votes jump ship to the Reagan camp. John ended up with six percent or so and if the election had been a week later, he'd have lost even more.
Looks like the White House is gonna drown in Clorox air drops or be littered with used hazmat suits this week.
Quote: billryanI don't know about the betting lines, but in 1980, John Anderson got more than 20% in the early polls and didn't really fade until late Summer. For most of the summer, it looked like he would split the Republican vote with Reagan as many Republicans thought RR was too extreme. As he got more exposure, he attracted a lot of people who had been very worried about him. I worked for the Anderson campaign and it was gut-wrenching watching people we were counting on for votes jump ship to the Reagan camp. John ended up with six percent or so and if the election had been a week later, he'd have lost even more.
Good story. I saw Anderson speak at my college in 1980. That is about as I can it under the rule against political statements.
