2020 Kentucky Derby And Triple Crown
June 13th, 2020 at 5:32:06 AM
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the Belmont Stakes is next Saturday
the legal U.S. ADWs usually jack up their promos for the TC series - this is for new customers only
I didn't see a lot of that this year
I will check again on Thursday to see if there's more jacking
right now - below are the best 2 that I've seen for new customers
I suggest that before anybody signs up they call and get all the details and stipulations in case I missed something
some of them do not allow place and/or show wagering to be counted towards the promo - and some do
the best 2 that I found are pretty good - here they are:
1...............DRFbets.com - double the first deposit up to $250 - meaning if you deposit $250 they will give you a free play credit of $250 - you can cash out the $250 free play only after betting it
2......................NYRAbets.com - $25 wagering credit and a deposit match of up to $200 if you bet double that amount - in other words you can deposit $200 and get $200 but will have to have bet $400 which means you will have to have won some of your bets after your $200 deposit
you must bet twice the amount of your original deposit to get the match in free play
I'm assuming you could deposit $200 first and then make a 2nd deposit of $200 and as long as you bet the $400 you would get the free play of $200 even if you didn't win any of your bets on the total of the 2 deposits of $400
the T&C keeps getting trickier and trickier and should be understood completely before signing up
there are also time constraints - this has to be done within a certain amount of time.......................................................GLTA
the legal U.S. ADWs usually jack up their promos for the TC series - this is for new customers only
I didn't see a lot of that this year
I will check again on Thursday to see if there's more jacking
right now - below are the best 2 that I've seen for new customers
I suggest that before anybody signs up they call and get all the details and stipulations in case I missed something
some of them do not allow place and/or show wagering to be counted towards the promo - and some do
the best 2 that I found are pretty good - here they are:
1...............DRFbets.com - double the first deposit up to $250 - meaning if you deposit $250 they will give you a free play credit of $250 - you can cash out the $250 free play only after betting it
2......................NYRAbets.com - $25 wagering credit and a deposit match of up to $200 if you bet double that amount - in other words you can deposit $200 and get $200 but will have to have bet $400 which means you will have to have won some of your bets after your $200 deposit
you must bet twice the amount of your original deposit to get the match in free play
I'm assuming you could deposit $200 first and then make a 2nd deposit of $200 and as long as you bet the $400 you would get the free play of $200 even if you didn't win any of your bets on the total of the 2 deposits of $400
the T&C keeps getting trickier and trickier and should be understood completely before signing up
there are also time constraints - this has to be done within a certain amount of time.......................................................GLTA
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 17th, 2020 at 5:35:56 PM
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The Belmont Stakes entries are all set with 10 runners starting in the first event of the 2020 Triple Crown.
Saturday June 20th ~ Post Time: ( 5:42)/ 4:42/ 3:42/ 2:42
Past performances (Click on Tiz The Law's Ultimate PPs):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/BarclayTagg/TAGG+BARCLAY/9999/summary.html
I am going to go with the favorite, Tiz The Law. Second choice: Pneumatic. GLTA
Saturday June 20th ~ Post Time: ( 5:42)/ 4:42/ 3:42/ 2:42
Past performances (Click on Tiz The Law's Ultimate PPs):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/BarclayTagg/TAGG+BARCLAY/9999/summary.html
I am going to go with the favorite, Tiz The Law. Second choice: Pneumatic. GLTA
June 19th, 2020 at 2:49:29 AM
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this race is going to be a great race to bet for those who know racing well IMHO
there's likely to be a ton of soft money coming from those who have been shut out of action in other betting arenas and are hungry for action and who know little about racing
all the soft money will create inefficient odds markets and juicy payouts on some, particularly in the secondary and exotic pools
there's likely to be a ton of soft money coming from those who have been shut out of action in other betting arenas and are hungry for action and who know little about racing
all the soft money will create inefficient odds markets and juicy payouts on some, particularly in the secondary and exotic pools
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 19th, 2020 at 6:27:25 AM
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Quote: lilredroosterthis race is going to be a great race to bet for those who know racing well IMHO
there's likely to be a ton of soft money coming from those who have been shut out of action in other betting arenas and are hungry for action and who know little about racing
all the soft money will create inefficient odds markets and juicy payouts on some, particularly in the secondary and exotic pools
You really think so? Even with, what, the 17% rake? Can you post an example BEFORE the race? Or is that like me asking which casino has the progressive slot that is now at 120%?
June 19th, 2020 at 8:14:57 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOYou really think so? Even with, what, the 17% rake? Can you post an example BEFORE the race? Or is that like me asking which casino has the progressive slot that is now at 120%?
definitely - if you are experienced enough to make your own line - for example if you think a horse should be 4/1 and the public is letting him go at 6/1 if your estimate is accurate you have a large edge even with the takeout
almost all of the time the edge is not as great as the capper estimates and they know this and adjust for it
most capable of getting an edge such as this still lose in the long run because they are not able to limit themselves to just those kind of bets - if they tried to do that they wouldn't be betting very often - and most want to bet often
this is not all that unusual but it takes a lot of knowledge to make an accurate line which is then compared to the public's line
in a big race with all the once in a blue moon bettors and even on the undercard where the blue mooners are likely to be betting heavily (considering all of them in aggregate) mispricing is much more likely to happen
racing compared to betting the NFL has a much higher takeout. 𝙗𝙪𝙩, unlike when the Giants play the Eagles where the line is likely to be very accurate; with 10 or 12 horses in a race there is a good chance of confusion affecting the public's pricing - and that confusion can be taken advantage of
on very big race days the show and place pools are fairly often out of sync with the win pool and if the % difference is large enough it makes for a very good bet sometimes - the ADWs display the total amounts bet in the WPS pools - although they're not 100% current
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 20th, 2020 at 4:17:53 PM
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Tiz the Law won it. If happy and healthy, he is on to the Travers @ Saratoga (which has a new date in early Aug now). Great story for a New York bred horse. I like his chances in future events.
Video of the Belmont Stakes:
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In other news, Gamine (B. Baffert trainee) ran a big one today in the Acorn. The track was fast and her time was the fastest ever for the race. I look forward to the future 3 year old filly races as well. Not to take anything away from other 3yo fillies, but Swiss Skydiver vs Gamine would be exciting to see...
Video of the Belmont Stakes:
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In other news, Gamine (B. Baffert trainee) ran a big one today in the Acorn. The track was fast and her time was the fastest ever for the race. I look forward to the future 3 year old filly races as well. Not to take anything away from other 3yo fillies, but Swiss Skydiver vs Gamine would be exciting to see...
June 21st, 2020 at 1:21:07 AM
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my idea - make the Preakness 1.5 miles like the Belmont usually is so if there is a TC winner he gets tested in the last race of the series
not gonna happen - just a thought -
not gonna happen - just a thought -
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 21st, 2020 at 12:46:29 PM
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Of the three races, it seems to me that a local trainer wins the Preakness more than the other two, Woody Stephens winning a half dozen Belmonts in a row being a bit of an outlier. I think Pimlico's turns give locals a bigger advantage that would be lost in a longer race.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
June 21st, 2020 at 1:53:20 PM
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Pimlico now offers live racing only 3 weeks out of the year
the Stronach Group has been trying to shut it down and race only out of their classier facility at Laurel, MD
the Governor of Maryland has stopped Stronach from doing this because of his belief in its historic value
he wants it refurbished which would cost 10s of millions
the Preakness is pretty much all that Pimlico now has to offer
the track is 150 years old
it's all broken down - an eyesore - a real embarrassment
who knows if this is ever going to happen:
"In February 2017, the Maryland Stadium Authority released the first phase of a study saying that Pimlico needed $250 million in renovations.
"A study into a renovation was ongoing as of January 2018. A report issued on December 14, 2018 suggested the existing buildings be demolished and rebuilt. In a meeting held in June 2018 by the Maryland Stadium Authority, locals "overwhelmingly supported upgrading the track property." The Preakness Stakes took place at Pimlico in May 2019, with media reports suggesting that future Preakness races could be moved to Laurel Park.
In October 2019, The Stronach Group reached an agreement in principle with the city of Baltimore and groups representing Maryland horsemen that would permanently keep the Preakness at Pimlico. As part of the agreement, The Stronach Group would donate both Pimilco and Laurel Park to newly-established government entities that would oversee the properties, with Stronach licensed to conduct the race meets. Pimlico's grandstand would be demolished and replaced with a smaller structure, and temporary seating would be added to handle the attendance during Preakness week. The race track itself would be rotated 30 degrees in order to create nine parcels of land that could be sold for private development, and new barns for horses would be constructed."
"Gov. Larry Hogan on Thursday, May 7, 2020 permitted a bill to become law that would enable the Maryland Stadium Authority to issue up to $375 million in bonds to refurbish Pimlico and Laurel Park. The money would be paid back by the Maryland Lottery and casino proceeds already designated to subsidize the racing industry."
the Stronach Group has been trying to shut it down and race only out of their classier facility at Laurel, MD
the Governor of Maryland has stopped Stronach from doing this because of his belief in its historic value
he wants it refurbished which would cost 10s of millions
the Preakness is pretty much all that Pimlico now has to offer
the track is 150 years old
it's all broken down - an eyesore - a real embarrassment
who knows if this is ever going to happen:
"In February 2017, the Maryland Stadium Authority released the first phase of a study saying that Pimlico needed $250 million in renovations.
"A study into a renovation was ongoing as of January 2018. A report issued on December 14, 2018 suggested the existing buildings be demolished and rebuilt. In a meeting held in June 2018 by the Maryland Stadium Authority, locals "overwhelmingly supported upgrading the track property." The Preakness Stakes took place at Pimlico in May 2019, with media reports suggesting that future Preakness races could be moved to Laurel Park.
In October 2019, The Stronach Group reached an agreement in principle with the city of Baltimore and groups representing Maryland horsemen that would permanently keep the Preakness at Pimlico. As part of the agreement, The Stronach Group would donate both Pimilco and Laurel Park to newly-established government entities that would oversee the properties, with Stronach licensed to conduct the race meets. Pimlico's grandstand would be demolished and replaced with a smaller structure, and temporary seating would be added to handle the attendance during Preakness week. The race track itself would be rotated 30 degrees in order to create nine parcels of land that could be sold for private development, and new barns for horses would be constructed."
"Gov. Larry Hogan on Thursday, May 7, 2020 permitted a bill to become law that would enable the Maryland Stadium Authority to issue up to $375 million in bonds to refurbish Pimlico and Laurel Park. The money would be paid back by the Maryland Lottery and casino proceeds already designated to subsidize the racing industry."
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 21st, 2020 at 2:24:35 PM
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It's ancient history now, but the Preakness was held in NYC for almost 25 years. They stole it from Maryland and then Pimlico got it back.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
June 21st, 2020 at 2:40:23 PM
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So I only became aware this morning that the Belmont went off yesterday. And I see the schedule is for the Preakness and Kentucky Derby in September and October, not sure in what order.
Now, I am only a casual horse racing fan, but it is my understanding that part of what makes the triple crown such a great feat is not just winning of the 3 races but doing so in a 5 week span. At this upper echelon of horse racing that is far more frequently than these horses usually run. So this new schedule sort of takes a way from this high or unusual feat, no?
Now, I am only a casual horse racing fan, but it is my understanding that part of what makes the triple crown such a great feat is not just winning of the 3 races but doing so in a 5 week span. At this upper echelon of horse racing that is far more frequently than these horses usually run. So this new schedule sort of takes a way from this high or unusual feat, no?
June 21st, 2020 at 2:53:34 PM
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Quote: kewljSo I only became aware this morning that the Belmont went off yesterday. And I see the schedule is for the Preakness and Kentucky Derby in September and October, not sure in what order.
Now, I am only a casual horse racing fan, but it is my understanding that part of what makes the triple crown such a great feat is not just winning of the 3 races but doing so in a 5 week span. At this upper echelon of horse racing that is far more frequently than these horses usually run. So this new schedule sort of takes a way from this high or unusual feat, no?
The fact that the Belmont was only 1 1/8 miles instead of 1 1/2 already puts an asterisk on this year's Triple Crown.
Besides, I am guessing that at least one horse will run four races in a 13-week span - the Travers on 8/8, the Kentucky Derby on 9/5, the Preakness on 10/3, and the Breeders Cup on 11/7.
June 22nd, 2020 at 8:18:25 AM
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I believe there is a strong argument to be made about changing the timing of the Triple Crown series of races. There are numerous reasons, but putting more time between each race (~ one month) could improve the quality of the fields. Unfortunately there is no one governing body to make it happen.
The Derby will always be very difficult to win @ 1 1/4 mile with 20 horses (and a restrictive points earning system). The Belmont is the distance challenge event @ 1 1/2 mile. But the Preakness is always the easiest race to win due to less competitive fields. The 2 week break between the Derby/Preakness leads to many Derby runners skipping the event (this happened in 2019). If the Derby is meant to attract the best 20 three year old horses, then we should want as many Derby runners as possible in all three events.
Tiz The Law is the only possible TC winner for 2020. If he is somehow able to win the next two TC events (Derby/Preakness), he will be a Triple Crown winner regardless of the changes made for 2020.
The Derby will always be very difficult to win @ 1 1/4 mile with 20 horses (and a restrictive points earning system). The Belmont is the distance challenge event @ 1 1/2 mile. But the Preakness is always the easiest race to win due to less competitive fields. The 2 week break between the Derby/Preakness leads to many Derby runners skipping the event (this happened in 2019). If the Derby is meant to attract the best 20 three year old horses, then we should want as many Derby runners as possible in all three events.
Tiz The Law is the only possible TC winner for 2020. If he is somehow able to win the next two TC events (Derby/Preakness), he will be a Triple Crown winner regardless of the changes made for 2020.
June 22nd, 2020 at 9:36:47 AM
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Quote: KeeneoneI believe there is a strong argument to be made about changing the timing of the Triple Crown series of races. There are numerous reasons, but putting more time between each race (~ one month) could improve the quality of the fields. Unfortunately there is no one governing body to make it happen.
The Derby will always be very difficult to win @ 1 1/4 mile with 20 horses (and a restrictive points earning system). The Belmont is the distance challenge event @ 1 1/2 mile. But the Preakness is always the easiest race to win due to less competitive fields. The 2 week break between the Derby/Preakness leads to many Derby runners skipping the event (this happened in 2019). If the Derby is meant to attract the best 20 three year old horses, then we should want as many Derby runners as possible in all three events.
Tiz The Law is the only possible TC winner for 2020. If he is somehow able to win the next two TC events (Derby/Preakness), he will be a Triple Crown winner regardless of the changes made for 2020.
And Barry Bonds is the all-time home run leader. If Tiz wins the TC this year, I'm sure he will get as much respect as Bonds does. It's not the horses fault, but that's the way it is. I think trying to foist a phony TC winner on the public will hurt racing.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
June 22nd, 2020 at 9:50:36 AM
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Here is the Belmont video (to replace earlier link):
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Next up on the new Derby qualification trail is the Ohio Derby.
Thistledown (points=20–8–4–2) Sat. June 27, 2020
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Next up on the new Derby qualification trail is the Ohio Derby.
Thistledown (points=20–8–4–2) Sat. June 27, 2020
June 22nd, 2020 at 11:20:22 AM
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Is Gamine not fast enough to compete with the boys in the Triple Crown? I don't think I've seen a top quality field decimated by one horse like that since Secretariat.
Of course nice win by Tiz the Law. But putting months between the races, altering the sequence, and altering the distances means to me they are just 3 separate races, not a "Triple Crown".
Of course nice win by Tiz the Law. But putting months between the races, altering the sequence, and altering the distances means to me they are just 3 separate races, not a "Triple Crown".
June 22nd, 2020 at 11:39:57 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOBut putting months between the races, altering the sequence, and altering the distances means to me they are just 3 separate races, not a "Triple Crown".
EXACTLY! The triple crown is about an extreme set of circumstances. Winning the Kentucky derby with 20+ horses. The Preakness 2 weeks later and the Belmont 3 weeks after that at the grueling and very unusual distance of a mile and a half. AND doing all that in the 5 week window. In addition there is an extra obstacle that often there are "specialist" horses that don't run in the first two races, well rested just waiting to derail a potential triple crown winner in the Belmont.
Like I said, a very unusual set of circumstances. Not to take anything away from a horse that wins the 3 races, now altered in terms of distance and time between races, it just isn't the same.
On the other hand, horses go in and out of "shape" and top form throughout the year. So that usual short window of the triple crown means a horse could more easily be in top form for a short time. With this years format a hose is going to have to get or remain in top form for many months.
Like I said, this year is just an entirely different set of circumstances. Just one opinion, but if you call a horse that wins this year's set of circumstances a triple crown winner, it takes away from the previous horses that were able to navigate that very unusual and difficult challenge of very specific circumstances.
June 22nd, 2020 at 11:44:20 AM
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I agree with the asterisk for this year. However, I heard a pretty persuasive argument on ESPN on Saturday that the TC should be run over 8 weeks rather than 5 going forward. The idea is that if you put four weeks between the Derby and Preakness (rather than the current 2), then more of the horses that ran the Derby would also run the Preakness, making the Preakness a more competitive event.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
June 22nd, 2020 at 12:58:17 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOIs Gamine not fast enough to compete with the boys in the Triple Crown? I don't think I've seen a top quality field decimated by one horse like that since Secretariat.
Of course nice win by Tiz the Law. But putting months between the races, altering the sequence, and altering the distances means to me they are just 3 separate races, not a "Triple Crown".
Baffert (Gamine's trainer) has already said no to the K Derby (she has not been nominated). So no K Derby for her, but she is still pointed to the Kentucky Oaks with maybe one more race in between to qualify for the race. For those unaware, Gamine also failed a drug test in Arkansas ("A" sample) and everyone is awaiting the release of her "B" sample results.
https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Baffert_plans_one_more_prep_for_Gamine_and_then_the_Kentucky_Oaks_123
June 24th, 2020 at 3:49:03 PM
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Sat. June 27, 2020 - Ohio Derby @ Thistledown - Race #8 (KD points=20–8–4–2)
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/ohio-derby
Past performances (Click on Unrighteous's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html
I don't particularly like any in here for the Derby in September. Storm the Court is the class of the field, but I would go elsewhere and look for runners from off the pace. I like #6 - Sprawl and #10 - South Bend. Both have stakes experience and look to be late runners that will appreciate the 9 furlong distance.
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/ohio-derby
Past performances (Click on Unrighteous's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html
I don't particularly like any in here for the Derby in September. Storm the Court is the class of the field, but I would go elsewhere and look for runners from off the pace. I like #6 - Sprawl and #10 - South Bend. Both have stakes experience and look to be late runners that will appreciate the 9 furlong distance.
June 24th, 2020 at 4:14:34 PM
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TV ratings are in and are decidedly mixed. By far the lowest rating on any Triple Crown race but it can claim to be the number one sports event for the week.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
June 25th, 2020 at 6:32:03 AM
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Kentucky Derby pool #5 is opening for this weekend.
Surprisingly, 3 horses in the pool are even not Triple Crown nominated yet (#6,12,19).
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/Future-Wager-Pools-5-7_Pool-5_June-2020_Odds-Sheet_v3.pdf
Past Performances:
http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Derby20Future5.pdf
Surprisingly, 3 horses in the pool are even not Triple Crown nominated yet (#6,12,19).
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/Future-Wager-Pools-5-7_Pool-5_June-2020_Odds-Sheet_v3.pdf
Past Performances:
http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Derby20Future5.pdf
June 25th, 2020 at 9:57:07 AM
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the WPS parimutuel pool for this year's Belmont Stakes was about $12 million
for 2019 when there was no chance of a TC winner it was about $17 million
in 2018 when Justify went for the TC the pool was about $27 million
so, it looks like the bettors gave the thumbs down to the beginning of the TC series this year because of the changes
but I don't think that's really the reason
the attendance in 2019 was about 56,000
a very high % of those bettors were the once in a blue moon types who where shut out this year because they couldn't attend the race
yes, they could have opened legal betting accounts with the ADWs but I think many weren't comfortable doing that and others didn't want to participate because the fun dimension was missing
these figures are just for the WPS pool
all of the other pools combined and then added to the WPS pool would have more than doubled those figures
I didn't feel like doing all the math to figure that out - but it's really not necessary - the WPS pool is an excellent indicator
for 2019 when there was no chance of a TC winner it was about $17 million
in 2018 when Justify went for the TC the pool was about $27 million
so, it looks like the bettors gave the thumbs down to the beginning of the TC series this year because of the changes
but I don't think that's really the reason
the attendance in 2019 was about 56,000
a very high % of those bettors were the once in a blue moon types who where shut out this year because they couldn't attend the race
yes, they could have opened legal betting accounts with the ADWs but I think many weren't comfortable doing that and others didn't want to participate because the fun dimension was missing
these figures are just for the WPS pool
all of the other pools combined and then added to the WPS pool would have more than doubled those figures
I didn't feel like doing all the math to figure that out - but it's really not necessary - the WPS pool is an excellent indicator
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 25th, 2020 at 10:36:27 AM
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Is there a breakdown of 2019 track wagering vs overall? Dropping by about a third without any live betting doesn't strike me as a bad thing.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
June 25th, 2020 at 1:10:06 PM
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Quote: billryanIs there a breakdown of 2019 track wagering vs overall? Dropping by about a third without any live betting doesn't strike me as a bad thing.
no, that is not made public
occasionally a track official will give the info to a reporter
the Jockey Club gives those stats for all the tracks for the entire year
in 2019 about $911 million on track and about $10 billion off track
about 11 times as much wagered off track as on track
but no info on particular races
http://www.jockeyclub.com/default.asp?section=FB&area=8
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 25th, 2020 at 1:43:29 PM
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Quote: lilredroosterthe WPS parimutuel pool for this year's Belmont Stakes was about $12 million
for 2019 when there was no chance of a TC winner it was about $17 million
in 2018 when Justify went for the TC the pool was about $27 million
I wonder if there are still companies that spend hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars on $2 win tickets to sell as souvenirs if the Derby/Preakness winner wins. I have a feeling that, after Big Brown's loss, everybody pretty much figured, "If Big Brown couldn't do it, why take the risk in the future?"
June 25th, 2020 at 3:13:31 PM
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Quote: lilredroosterno, that is not made public
occasionally a track official will give the info to a reporter
the Jockey Club gives those stats for all the tracks for the entire year
in 2019 about $911 million on track and about $10 billion off track
about 11 times as much wagered off track as on track
but no info on particular races
http://www.jockeyclub.com/default.asp?section=FB&area=8
The tracks don't give total handles any more? That's The Number that used to be used when numbers was such a big racket.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
June 25th, 2020 at 3:17:29 PM
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Quote: ThatDonGuyI wonder if there are still companies that spend hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars on $2 win tickets to sell as souvenirs if the Derby/Preakness winner wins. I have a feeling that, after Big Brown's loss, everybody pretty much figured, "If Big Brown couldn't do it, why take the risk in the future?"
I bought 50 $2 tickets on AP in the Belmont. I think it paid about $2.40 but I sold the tix on eBay for up to $23. Most sold for about $12-15. It was the third time I'd tried that so my real cost was $6 a pop.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
June 25th, 2020 at 3:36:25 PM
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Quote: billryanThe tracks don't give total handles any more? That's The Number that used to be used when numbers was such a big racket.
the handles are available from the official charts on Equibase.com
but they don't break it down between on track and off track
when numbers was big there was very little off track betting - that was even before simulcasting
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 25th, 2020 at 3:37:14 PM
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There have been so many changes this year that yoy comparisons might be of less value. But the date change and no fans for the Belmont definitely had an effect.
https://www.nyra.com/belmont/news/2020-belmont-stakes-day-generates-67,753,336-in-all-sources-handle
It is disapointing New Yorkers did not get to see a NY bred win the modified Belmont for the first time in a loooooong time (1882 - Forester).
I would expect Churchill Downs to do a lot of advertising about the new date for the KD. Of course they are also concerned if fans will be able to attend in September...
https://www.nyra.com/belmont/news/2020-belmont-stakes-day-generates-67,753,336-in-all-sources-handle
It is disapointing New Yorkers did not get to see a NY bred win the modified Belmont for the first time in a loooooong time (1882 - Forester).
I would expect Churchill Downs to do a lot of advertising about the new date for the KD. Of course they are also concerned if fans will be able to attend in September...
June 25th, 2020 at 4:06:36 PM
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Quote: KeeneoneT
https://www.nyra.com/belmont/news/2020-belmont-stakes-day-generates-67,753,336-in-all-sources-handle
just to be clear they are referring to all 12 races on the card that day - including several stakes races
on all the TC days there is an exceptionally strong undercard
the article also mentions that the 2019 all sources handle - a year when no TC winner was possible in the Belmont Stakes - was about $102 million
that is a very large difference
however, the article also points out that the figures for 2019 was a NYRA record for a non TC year
which also makes a point about the continuing popularity of racing at least during the TC series
the total handle of $11 billion in 2019 indicates that racing in the U.S. is still a formidable business
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 25th, 2020 at 4:16:50 PM
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Correct. But it also lists the all sources handle for just the Belmont Stakes.
Belmont Stakes only:
2017 - $47,163,773
2018 - $72,702,815
2019 - $53,237,527
2020 - $34,088,475
Another link:
https://www.belmontstakes.com/news/2019-belmont-stakes-day-generates-record-handle-for-non-triple-crown-year
Belmont Stakes only:
2017 - $47,163,773
2018 - $72,702,815
2019 - $53,237,527
2020 - $34,088,475
Another link:
https://www.belmontstakes.com/news/2019-belmont-stakes-day-generates-record-handle-for-non-triple-crown-year
June 25th, 2020 at 4:44:40 PM
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I just had a thought that struck me as pretty funny
Jeff Bezos, Amazon, now has a net worth of about $162 billion
if he made a $10 billion bet on a 2/5 favorite to show and it showed he could bankrupt NYRA....................😄
if the horse showed NYRA would owe him $500 million............ 😄
as far as I know racing doesn't have any protocol in place to refuse a very large bet
they could declare no show wagering but then he could bet to place or pick another race
but I guess if he deposited $10 billion into an ADW account that would send shock waves throughout the racing industry
they would figure out a way not to accept his bet
Jeff Bezos, Amazon, now has a net worth of about $162 billion
if he made a $10 billion bet on a 2/5 favorite to show and it showed he could bankrupt NYRA....................😄
if the horse showed NYRA would owe him $500 million............ 😄
as far as I know racing doesn't have any protocol in place to refuse a very large bet
they could declare no show wagering but then he could bet to place or pick another race
but I guess if he deposited $10 billion into an ADW account that would send shock waves throughout the racing industry
they would figure out a way not to accept his bet
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 25th, 2020 at 5:30:42 PM
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If Bezos chose to, he could bankrupt most business's and people.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
June 27th, 2020 at 2:05:40 PM
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Sat. June 27, 2020 - Ohio Derby @ Thistledown - Race #8
#1 Dean Martini won it. He was recently claimed for 50k and now he is a Grade 3 winner. Wow!
https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=TDN&raceDate=06/27/2020&cy=USA&rn=8
Not really confident any of these will make the K Derby, let alone win it.
#1 Dean Martini won it. He was recently claimed for 50k and now he is a Grade 3 winner. Wow!
https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=TDN&raceDate=06/27/2020&cy=USA&rn=8
Not really confident any of these will make the K Derby, let alone win it.
June 28th, 2020 at 2:20:41 AM
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/sports/horse-racing/kentucky-derby-fans.html
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
July 1st, 2020 at 5:56:15 PM
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Los Alamitos Derby - KD points earning race (20–8–4–2)
Los Alamitos Race Course - July 4, 2020 - Race #6 - Post Time: 6:28
Past performances (click on Uncle Chuck's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=LRC&race=6¶m1=328¶m2=3444¶m3=921120
Baffert does very well in this event (3 straight wins and 9 total). He has 2 entered in this event.
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Also running on the same day @ LA in race #4 is a 2yo ridgling I have on my watch list #4 - Sonic Brees. I'll have a little on him to win and hopefully he breaks his maiden.
GLTA
Los Alamitos Race Course - July 4, 2020 - Race #6 - Post Time: 6:28
Past performances (click on Uncle Chuck's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=LRC&race=6¶m1=328¶m2=3444¶m3=921120
Baffert does very well in this event (3 straight wins and 9 total). He has 2 entered in this event.
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Also running on the same day @ LA in race #4 is a 2yo ridgling I have on my watch list #4 - Sonic Brees. I'll have a little on him to win and hopefully he breaks his maiden.
GLTA
July 4th, 2020 at 4:14:15 PM
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Uncle Chuck won over a small field of 4. He likely needs to run one more good one to make the Derby.
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Sonic Brees won race 4 @ 3/5. Not much to be made at that price, but I'll take it. He is a nice 2yo runner.
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Sonic Brees won race 4 @ 3/5. Not much to be made at that price, but I'll take it. He is a nice 2yo runner.
July 4th, 2020 at 4:33:47 PM
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Indiana Derby (Derby points: 20–8–4–2) @ Indiana Grand
Wednesday July 8, 2020 - Race #11 - Post Time: 7:45 ET
Past performances (click on Shared Sense's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/BradHCox/COX+BRAD+H/9999/summary.html
A couple in here already have some Derby points. None really seem to be in the top tier of Derby prospects at the moment. Not one of these have even won a Stakes race yet. Of course one will win this Grade 3 event and maybe get a shot at making the big race. I do have a KD future bet on #5 - Shared Sense, so I will be pulling for him. He fits with these but needs a win and another big performance to make the Derby. GLTA
Wednesday July 8, 2020 - Race #11 - Post Time: 7:45 ET
Past performances (click on Shared Sense's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/BradHCox/COX+BRAD+H/9999/summary.html
A couple in here already have some Derby points. None really seem to be in the top tier of Derby prospects at the moment. Not one of these have even won a Stakes race yet. Of course one will win this Grade 3 event and maybe get a shot at making the big race. I do have a KD future bet on #5 - Shared Sense, so I will be pulling for him. He fits with these but needs a win and another big performance to make the Derby. GLTA
July 4th, 2020 at 9:49:32 PM
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If you don't mind the question, how many hours a day do you devote to this? You seem to be pretty knowledgeable on horses.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
July 5th, 2020 at 8:23:08 AM
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Quote: billryanIf you don't mind the question, how many hours a day do you devote to this? You seem to be pretty knowledgeable on horses.
Definitely not hours a day. It is just a gambling hobby I enjoy casually following, just like a number of other sports. Recently I have been following along more because it is one of the few sports operating right now. Generally I will follow the Triple Crown series (2 year old/ 3 years olds and the prep races), the 2 Keeneland race meets (Apr/Oct) and the Breeders Cup. I still have plenty to learn about the sport...
July 8th, 2020 at 5:51:41 PM
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Indiana Derby
Shared Sense won it. He earned 20 derby points for the race but needs more in his next event. Major Fed was second and improved his chances of making it into the Derby. Unfortunately I could not bet on the race here in Nevada. There is no current simulcast deal in place for the track @ the casinos.
https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=IND&raceDate=07/08/2020&cy=USA&rn=11
On to the next prep race...
Shared Sense won it. He earned 20 derby points for the race but needs more in his next event. Major Fed was second and improved his chances of making it into the Derby. Unfortunately I could not bet on the race here in Nevada. There is no current simulcast deal in place for the track @ the casinos.
https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=IND&raceDate=07/08/2020&cy=USA&rn=11
On to the next prep race...
July 8th, 2020 at 5:52:17 PM
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Toyota Blue Grass Stakes @ Keeneland - KD points earning race (100–40–20–10)
July 11, 2020 - Race #9 - Post Time: 5:30et
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/blue-grass
Past performances (click on Swiss Skydiver's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/McPeek/MCPEEK+KENNETH+G/9999/summary.html
The filly, Swiss Skydiver (#7), is taking on the boys in this event. I think she may be on or pressing the lead in here. This is one difficult race to handicap. I have no idea who wins this one, but there definitely could be a decent Kentucky Derby runner (or three) to come out of it.
Great betting race.
July 11, 2020 - Race #9 - Post Time: 5:30et
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/blue-grass
Past performances (click on Swiss Skydiver's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/McPeek/MCPEEK+KENNETH+G/9999/summary.html
The filly, Swiss Skydiver (#7), is taking on the boys in this event. I think she may be on or pressing the lead in here. This is one difficult race to handicap. I have no idea who wins this one, but there definitely could be a decent Kentucky Derby runner (or three) to come out of it.
Great betting race.
July 12th, 2020 at 8:15:26 AM
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Toyota Blue Grass Stakes @ Keeneland
Art Collector won it and really is on the improve.
Swiss Skydiver ran well to get second. They really dominated the others in the race.
Art Collector won it and really is on the improve.
Swiss Skydiver ran well to get second. They really dominated the others in the race.
July 12th, 2020 at 8:45:42 AM
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Peter Pan @ Saratoga - KD points earning race (50–20–10–5)
July 16, 2020 - Race #9 - Post Time: 5:46et
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/peter-pan
Past performances (click on Mohawk's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/StarlightStable/combined%20summary.html
I landed on #6 - Mystic Guide. He is on the improve and deserves a chance in a Stakes to see how good he is @ 9 furlongs. It is kinda cool to see these other 3 year old summer races become Derby points events. I normally would be taking a break from racing this time of year.
July 16, 2020 - Race #9 - Post Time: 5:46et
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/peter-pan
Past performances (click on Mohawk's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/StarlightStable/combined%20summary.html
I landed on #6 - Mystic Guide. He is on the improve and deserves a chance in a Stakes to see how good he is @ 9 furlongs. It is kinda cool to see these other 3 year old summer races become Derby points events. I normally would be taking a break from racing this time of year.
July 15th, 2020 at 4:51:49 PM
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Bob Baffert was suspended for 15 days due to two of his horses testing positive for a banned substance. It happened at Oaklawn Park
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
July 15th, 2020 at 5:15:22 PM
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Not surprised. They will appeal and lots of $$ is on the line if the purses are lost. One of the horses, Gamine, is gonna be one of the Kentucky Oaks favorites. The other, Charlatan, is sidelined atm with an injury. I am not a fan of Baffert anymore, but I respect the talented horses many owners send his way.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/242346/baffert-suspended-horses-dqd-after-drug-positives
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/242346/baffert-suspended-horses-dqd-after-drug-positives
July 15th, 2020 at 5:22:05 PM
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Haskell Invitational @ Monmouth Park - KD points earning race (100–40–20–10)
July 18, 2020 - Race #12 - Post Time: 5:48et
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/haskell-invitational
Past performances (click on Authentic's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT+BOB/9999/summary.htm
I don't really love any horse in here for the Derby, but lots of Derby points are available. The winner gets 600k and 2nd gets 200k, so I am surprised at the smallish field size. Plenty of speed showing up, so I may give the slight edge to an off the pace type #1 - Dr Post. The inside 2 look logical for this event. If forced to bet, I would likely exacta box them and take the chalky payout. GL.
July 18, 2020 - Race #12 - Post Time: 5:48et
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/haskell-invitational
Past performances (click on Authentic's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT+BOB/9999/summary.htm
I don't really love any horse in here for the Derby, but lots of Derby points are available. The winner gets 600k and 2nd gets 200k, so I am surprised at the smallish field size. Plenty of speed showing up, so I may give the slight edge to an off the pace type #1 - Dr Post. The inside 2 look logical for this event. If forced to bet, I would likely exacta box them and take the chalky payout. GL.
July 16th, 2020 at 3:33:26 PM
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Peter Pan @ Saratoga - KD points earning race (50–20–10–5)
July 16, 2020 - Race #9 - Post Time: 5:46et
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/peter-pan
Past performances (click on Mohawk's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/StarlightStable/combined%20summary.html
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Result:
Country Grammer won it with a little bumping down the lane. Only excuse I could come up with for Mystic Guide is the outside of the new Saratoga dirt track did seem a little dead today. Rail runs were strong down the lane. He looks like he would like longer distances but he has little time to actually make the Derby.
July 16, 2020 - Race #9 - Post Time: 5:46et
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/peter-pan
Past performances (click on Mohawk's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/StarlightStable/combined%20summary.html
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Result:
Country Grammer won it with a little bumping down the lane. Only excuse I could come up with for Mystic Guide is the outside of the new Saratoga dirt track did seem a little dead today. Rail runs were strong down the lane. He looks like he would like longer distances but he has little time to actually make the Derby.
July 18th, 2020 at 5:50:41 PM
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Haskell Stakes @ Monmouth Park
Authentic won it by a whisker. Very close race. Top 3 will likely compete again in the Derby.
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/haskell-invitational
2 weeks until the next Derby prep and only 4 races left to earn points.
Authentic won it by a whisker. Very close race. Top 3 will likely compete again in the Derby.
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/haskell-invitational
2 weeks until the next Derby prep and only 4 races left to earn points.
