College Football Picks 2019
Alabama
Clemson
Ohio State
Georgia
LSU
Oklahoma
Florida
Wisconsin
and Penn State
lesser powers that are undefeated include Boise State, Wake Forest, SMU, Baylor and Memphis
Wake Forest is in Clemson's conference - the ACC - can they play tough with Clemson?
really, really interesting
https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2019-10-06/college-football-rankings-week-7-top-25-polls-2019-season
Quote: lilredrooster9 traditionally powerful college football teams are undefeated so far:
Alabama
Clemson
Ohio State
Georgia
LSU
Oklahoma
Florida
Wisconsin
and Penn State
lesser powers that are undefeated include Boise State, Wake Forest, SMU, Baylor and Memphis
Wake Forest is in Clemson's conference - the ACC - can they play tough with Clemson?
really, really interesting
https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2019-10-06/college-football-rankings-week-7-top-25-polls-2019-season
Florida plays LSU
LSU plays Alabama
Florida plays Georgia
Ohio State plays Penn State
Wisconsin plays Minnesota
Clemson plays Wake Forest
Minus conference championship games, this list will be down to 3-5 undefeated teams. If four are undefeated by their conference championships, 2 more will fall in the SEC and BIG10.
I like that a majority of this works itself out in the end.
Week 6 Ending Capital: $1,269.55
Week 7 Risk: $520
Why I picked this game:
I'm riding Florida again this week. Both LSU and Florida are undefeated. LSU has not yet faced any recognizable defense this year, including a defense that has a solid front line. Florida dominated Auburn on defense last week and they didn't even start or play their best pass rusher in Zuniga. He was close to 100% last week but Mullen decided to keep him out. He mentioned on Monday that he will be playing this Saturday so Florida's defense is even better now. Florida's offense has faced two very strong defenses in Miami and Auburn, and I see Trask managing the game, which is all he needs to do. As I mentioned last week, Florida has 5 solid receivers and add a 6th in TE Kyle Pitts. Pitts continues to get stronger each week and Swain could not be covered by Auburn's secondary.
LSU has a high powered offense but this is still essentially the same team that Florida beat last year by 8 points. Florida has not faced an offense like LSUs this year but I give the edge to the Florida D, primarily because they have a consistent rush that will put pressure on the QB throughout the game. However, in other games, LSU is still completing 70% of their passes while under pressure. The only problem with this? Florida's secondary has 3 people that will play on NFL Sundays. That completion pct will drop this week.
The media will say that LSU has won 6 out of the last 8 meetings. What they won't tell you is that Florida has won 2 out of the last 3, including winning @ LSU. All 3 of the last games were decided by "one score".
I see Florida upsetting LSU 33-27 (by one score). Turnovers should be in Florida's favor this week (+1 favored). There should be 1-2 trick plays in this game. Florida will also get a defensive score this week.
The line is currently -13.5 in favor of LSU but where I live I can't get a local line better than -/+ 13. I'm taking the points with Florida. The oddsmakers have the line wrong this week, the same as last week. I also am putting a small wager on the ML in favor of Florida.
( 82nd ) - Georgia Southern
( 92nd ) - Texas
( FCS ) - Northwestern State
( 123rd ) - Vanderbilt
( 89th ) - Utah State
They have not played a defense lower than 82.
( 5th ) - Florida
Enjoy the pick.
Quote: JoelDezeI'm riding Florida again this week.
I wish you well. It'll be interesting to see if your analysis on Florida's D is correct. Thirteen is a lot of points.
Florida D: PATHETICQuote: IndyJeffreyIt'll be interesting to see if your analysis on Florida's D is correct. Thirteen is a lot of points.
If
'Thirteen is a lot of points'
what is losing by 14?
I saw William Hill had moved the line to +14 Florida this morning. (I passed on that game)
Many are very happy they waited to bet. +14 is way better than +13
2nd & Goal at LSU 2
3rd & Goal at LSU 2
4th & Goal at LSU 2
LOL
Had one done enough line shopping they could have probably found it at + 14 earlier.Quote: 7crapsFlorida D: PATHETIC
If
'Thirteen is a lot of points'
what is losing by 14?
I saw William Hill had moved the line to +14 Florida this morning. (I passed on that game)
Many are very happy they waited to bet. +14 is way better than +13
2nd & Goal at LSU 2
3rd & Goal at LSU 2
4th & Goal at LSU 2
LOL
That's what good sports bettors who make good money do. Whatever system/program/skill you think you have you can just flush it down the toilet because getting those good lines is what really matters. It makes the difference between winning and losing. Adding a bunch of garbage analyzing into the mix just wastes times and confuses people about what really matters. You can know zero about sports and still beat them if you are willing to take the time and find off lines.
That's what HORRIBLE sports bettors who WANT TO GLOAT & make 'LOTS OF' money do NOT DO.Quote: AxelWolfHad one done enough line shopping they could have probably found it at + 14 earlier.
That's what good sports bettors who make good money do.
yep. picking the winners and say 'you know it all' is junk.Quote: AxelWolfWhatever system/program/skill you think you have you can just flush it down the toilet because getting those good lines is what really matters.
ALL JUNK (TRASH)
confusing to the OPQuote: AxelWolfIt makes the difference between winning and losing.
Adding a bunch of garbage analyzing into the mix just wastes times and confuses people about what really matters.
Don’t try this at home kids
Quote: JoelDezeOriginal Capital: $1,000
Week 6 Ending Capital: $1,269.55
Week 7 Risk: $520
Yo! You are down to $749.55. Are you going to keep on truckin'?
Why not go back to your original strategy?
Quote: JoelDezeThe goal is to produce positive ROI each week. Theoretically, with no buys and a perfect record (just an example), $1k would become $140,343. But, I'm not pretentious and will assume that a majority of weeks may see an ROI of -5% to +25%.
Continuing on to next week.
On line shopping, I really felt the line would come down so I jumped on it early. Regardless, if the line had been +9 I would still have bet on Florida. I’m not upset about the outcome. I look at the facts of the game. They lost their two best pash rushers in Grenard and Zuniga and had no pressure up front. They still had a chance to cover twice and were deep in the red zone but didn’t convert. Florida had more first downs, almost twice the time of possession, and only 50 less yards of offense. The defense was disappointing but I would bet the same game again knowing the outcome.
Quote: JoelDezeRisked 40.9% and lost out.
Continuing on to next week.
On line shopping, I really felt the line would come down so I jumped on it early. Regardless, if the line had been +9 I would still have bet on Florida. I’m not upset about the outcome. I look at the facts of the game. They lost their two best pash rushers in Grenard and Zuniga and had no pressure up front. They still had a chance to cover twice and were deep in the red zone but didn’t convert. Florida had more first downs, almost twice the time of possession, and only 50 less yards of offense. The defense was disappointing but I would bet the same game again knowing the outcome.
I like your answer. If you felt the line would come down and wanted the Gators then betting it early made sense. This game just proves how fickle a final score in football can be. Some here think you don't care about the lines at all. Your answer seems to contradict that. It is just you were wrong on the direction the line would move.
I knew 100% that if one would just WAIT, the line would go up and it did where I live.Quote: SOOPOOIf you felt the line would come down and wanted the Gators then betting it early made sense.
All the talk is about LSU having a team that can score lots of points.
the public buys into that type of talk. always HAVE and always will
It was easy to see the line move to a happy +14, as expected.
even a BLIND man with no teeth could see that happening.
those that bet against what 'normally happens' are NOT winners as they ALSO fail to consider the house edge.
Quote: 7crapsI knew 100% that if one would just WAIT, the line would go up and it did where I live.
All the talk is about LSU having a team that can score lots of points.
the public buys into that type of talk. always HAVE and always will
It was easy to see the line move to a happy +14, as expected.
even a BLIND man with no teeth could see that happening.
those that bet against what 'normally happens' are NOT winners as they ALSO fail to consider the house edge.
I'm glad you think that using a blind man will make you think your point is strong. So you are telling me the oddsmakers were blind when they made the spread 13 to start?
Please explain to this toothless blind man why on earth would the oddsmakers make the spread initially 13? When someone as smart as you KNEW it would go to 14?
LOLQuote: SOOPOOI'm glad you think that using a blind man will make you think your point is strong. So you are telling me the oddsmakers were blind when they made the spread 13 to start?
interesting personal interpretation
odds makers are never blind. they played the PUBLIC perfectly (that is what they do) and the OP bought it. SUCKER
50% win 455.55
50% lose 500
ev = -$22.73 (that is NEGATIVE)
edge = 0.045454545 (as expected)
I am that BLIND man with no teeth (I saw it happening but saw way better bet opportunities and took advantage of those)
FYI, during the game one could get +14.5 points on FLORIDA when they were down by 7 points - in an obvious shootout. (but I chickened out, on that bet)
GREAT you keep telling those that read why you lost and should have won and would have done it again and again.Quote: JoelDezeRisked 40.9% and lost out.
Making -EV sports bets is NOTHING new.
why YOU think YOU are different and obviously SPECIAL?
no need to answer as those who can read already know the correct answer.
BTW, I bet my entire sports betting money on Oregon on Friday night. I got lucky.
It was a slight +ev bet and we know all about Oregon's HORRIBLE defense.
Quote: 7crapsI knew 100% that if one would just WAIT, the line would go up and it did where I live.
If that is the case please post every week the games you know are going to move and which direction. I generally laugh when someone says they know with a 100% certainty.
Quote: 7crapsI knew 100% that if one would just WAIT, the line would go up and it did where I live.
All the talk is about LSU having a team that can score lots of points.
the public buys into that type of talk. always HAVE and always will
It was easy to see the line move to a happy +14, as expected.
even a BLIND man with no teeth could see that happening.
those that bet against what 'normally happens' are NOT winners as they ALSO fail to consider the house edge.
Actually that’s not correct. A lot of analysts were actually talking about Florida’s defense and how LSU hasn’t faced a good defense. The analytics backed that up. The result on the field did not. Again, counting the two drives where Florida did not score, they threw one INT and had 8 tries from under the 10 to score. If they played again, I still believe Florida covers at +9 or greater.
Quote: gordonm888After previously explaining to us that Florida's defense was ranked 3rd in the country according to some statistic, perhaps you could tell us where Florida's defense ranks now?
Overall statistically, they were ranked 5th. They are now ranked 9th.
Quote: SOOPOOI like your answer. If you felt the line would come down and wanted the Gators then betting it early made sense. This game just proves how fickle a final score in football can be. Some here think you don't care about the lines at all. Your answer seems to contradict that. It is just you were wrong on the direction the line would move.
Yes, I did not believe it would go up. When the line first hit the open it momentarily hit -14.5 and then shortly after changed to an open of -13.5. It went down to -13 where I live and I bought in there. I still felt the line would move to -12 or -11.5.
Quote: JoelDezeYes, I did not believe it would go up. When the line first hit the open it momentarily hit -14.5 and then shortly after changed to an open of -13.5. It went down to -13 where I live and I bought in there. I still felt the line would move to -12 or -11.5.
I thought the same thing on the Penn St - Iowa game. I took the +3.5 on Monday because I was sure it would drop to +3. Once again, I was wrong.
I believe Boise will win 34-21. The ATS is currently -7.
Quote: JoelDezeThere's a great slate of games but a lot of them will be trap games. I'm currently leaning on Boise State ATS and am waiting to see if it moves anymore by Fri night. I will place either Fri night or Sat morning depending on how much time I have available.
I believe Boise will win 34-21. The ATS is currently -7.
Good luck. Boise State has been terrible against the spread at home lately.
Edit: Never mind, the game is not in Boise.
Boise StateQuote: DRichBoise State has been terrible against the spread at home lately.
they mostly play late games (after 7pm) so they could be tired from waiting to play.
They have a different quarterback starting but they are playing BYU in Provo.
yes, they have been terrible.
ONLY 3-1 at Home ATS
| Date | Opponent | Closing Line | Total | Result | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31 | @ Florida State Seminoles | 6.5 | 54.5 | Won 36 - 31 | Win / Over |
| Sep 6 | Marshall Thundering Herd | -14 | 58.5 | Won 14 - 7 | Loss / Under |
| Sep 14 | Portland State Vikings | -34.5 | 54 | Won 45 - 10 | Win / Over |
| Sep 20 | Air Force Falcons | -7.5 | 53.5 | Won 30 - 19 | Win / Under |
| Oct 5 | @ UNLV Rebels | -24 | 58 | Won 38 - 13 | Win / Under |
| Oct 12 | Hawaii Warriors | -12.5 | 60.5 | Won 59 - 37 | Win / Over |
current WIlliam Hill mobile
-7
-260
Quote: 7crapsB
yes, they have been terrible.
ONLY 3-1 at Home ATS
Look over the last few years. Boise used to have the biggest home field advantage in football, but that has changed.
not interested in that.Quote: DRichLook over the last few years. Boise used to have the biggest home field advantage in football, but that has changed.
Their home record has an interesting correlation on their away games.
Idaho and Utah are about the same state, so it could be considered a home game.
One knows how Utah folks like to jump on the bandwagon.
Best line I could get locally at TR.
Quote: 7crapsBoise State
they mostly play late games (after 7pm) so they could be tired from waiting to play.
Say what?
Quote: JohnzimboSay what?
LOL. I didn’t want to comment on that one but I did find it pretty funny.
Last year BS had to watch other schools play before themQuote: JohnzimboSay what?
and they were NOT ranked on their long winning streak (at least the 1st 5 wins)
This year they are ranked higher and HATE (by interviews) that they get NO respect and TV time as other schools get.
They BEAT BYU last year AT HOME 21-16
now on the road with injuries
BYU licking their chops to cover.
way more games (some +ev) than this one to bet on for a cover.
Quote: 7craps
way more games (some +ev) than this one to bet on for a cover.
Which games and sides do you think are +EV?
Quote: DRichWhich games and sides do you think are +EV?
The "non-tired of waiting" teams of course
Quote: JohnzimboThe "non-tired of waiting" teams of course
Yes, we know all college kids like to be in bed early.
only 1 I share (game is almost over)Quote: DRichWhich games and sides do you think are +EV?
the team had a bye last week and lost to FLORIDA the week B4.
winning probability taken from CBS sports simulations
Quote: 7crapsonly 1 I share (game is almost over)
the team had a bye last week and lost to FLORIDA the week B4.
winning probability taken from CBS sports simulations
Aren’t you one of the posters that kicks other posters for past-posting sports bets?
Looks like the forecast in Utah is very windy tonight. The total is dropping like a rock. On the margin that’s got to mean a bit tougher to cover the points.
no.Quote: unJonAren’t you one of the posters that kicks other posters for past-posting sports bets?
you must be thinking of yourself. Pat yourself for that one.
update:
BYU 28
boise state 10
3 minutes left in 3rd
time 4 BS to start scoring touchdowns to cover
final
BYU 28
boise state 25
what was the probability you came up with of Boise winning?Quote: JoelDezeI believe Boise will win 34-21. The ATS is currently -7.
anyone can just show a score
not just anyone can show a winning probability
Quote: IndyJeffreyOK. By my calculation you are down to $654.55. Are you going to keep on truckin'?
It’s week 9, so according to the systemic disciplined approach outlined in the original post, this weeks risked capital will be equal to exactly 50% of the bankr...
Screw it!! We gonna let it all ride on Wisconsin !! Double or nothin baby*
* register at my web site for details on how this system works
LOLQuote: michael99000Screw it!! We gonna let it all ride on Wisconsin !! Double or nothin baby*
* register at my web site for details on how this system works
Wisconsin +14
they did everything to lose on Sat
they will not show up early this Sat morning
Ohio State -14 1st half easy
Quote: IndyJeffreyOK. By my calculation you are down to $654.55. Are you going to keep on truckin'?
Absolutely.
Quote: DRichBig game this weekend. UConn -10 at UMass. Both teams looking for their second win. I am leaning towards the home team.
How about Big 10 conference member Rutgers a 7 point underdog at home to Liberty
Quote: michael99000How about Big 10 conference member Rutgers a 7 point underdog at home to Liberty
I like Liberty there.
most like the favoritesQuote: DRichI like Liberty there.
I like home dogs too.
44-27 Rutgers
3 min left in 4th quarter
FINAL: 44-34 Rutgers
Just like Ohio state (not a home dog - at home and Wisconsin no show up, or went home at half time)
38-7 Ohio state
8 min left in 4th quarter
FINAL
Quote: 7crapsmost like the favorites
I like home dogs too.
44-27 Rutgers
3 min left in 4th quarter
FINAL: 44-34 Rutgers
Just like Ohio state (not a home dog - at home and Wisconsin no show up, or went home at half time)
38-7 Ohio state
8 min left in 4th quarter
FINAL
I have had a terrible year with college football.
