Presidential Election Betting
October 10th, 2023 at 3:50:33 PM
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Thanks Fins. I’m not the best at remembering these things! Win or lose, please remind me once the bet has been determined.
October 10th, 2023 at 4:12:38 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOThanks Fins. I’m not the best at remembering these things! Win or lose, please remind me once the bet has been determined.
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I hope you win.
October 11th, 2023 at 6:17:41 AM
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Quote: SOOPOO
Geez guys! The whole idea of making a bet is trying to show you can analyze the variables better than the next guy.
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I can't do that....LOL That's why I'm not betting on this.
October 11th, 2023 at 3:47:36 PM
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Arizona may be unable to send electors to the electoral college to cast votes for president next time. They could fix it, but will they? It also depends on if there is a mandated recount because the vote is within 0.5% like last time.
October 11th, 2023 at 4:23:05 PM
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Former President Donald Trump is arguing to a judge in Colorado that he was not required to "support" the Constitution as president, reported Brandi Buchman from Law & Crime.
The argument came as he seeks to dismiss a lawsuit filed in the state by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), seeking to have him disqualified from the ballot in the state under the 14th Amendment. The Insurrection Clause of the amendment prohibits those who have "engaged in insurrection" against the United States from holding a civil, military, or elected office without unless a two-thirds majority of the House and Senate approve.
But Trump's lawyers are arguing that the specific language of the Constitution argues that this requirement only applies to people in offices who are bound to "support" the Constitution — and the presidency is not one of those offices.
POLL: Should Trump be allowed to run for office?
"The Presidential oath, which the framers of the Fourteenth Amendment surely knew, requires the President to swear to 'preserve, protect and defend' the Constitution — not to 'support' the Constitution," said the filing by Trump's attorneys. "Because the framers chose to define the group of people subject to Section Three by an oath to 'support' the Constitution of the United States, and not by an oath to 'preserve, protect and defend' the Constitution, the framers of the Fourteenth Amendment never intended for it to apply to the President."
The former president has already tried to remove the 14th Amendment case to federal court, but this motion was denied.
Other lawsuits are trying to disqualify Trump on the same grounds in other states, including Minnesota. However, these cases face obstacles, chiefly that the 14th Amendment doesn't lay out a clear enforcement mechanism, according to experts.
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State lawsuit aims to remove Trump from the ballot
Six Colorado voters filed a lawsuit in September seeking to keep former President Donald Trump off the state’s ballots under the 14th Amendment Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold joins Morning Joe to discuss.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/state-lawsuit-aims-to-remove-trump-from-the-ballot/vi-AA1i3bt2?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=32257c9992134e04ffd44a1f82188515&ei=10#details
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RX: Republicans against Trump @RpsAgainstTrump
WOW.
Republican Rep. Ken Buck voted present on the Speaker race, because both Jordan and Scalise voted to overturn the 2020 election results:
“If we don't have the moral clarity to decide whether President Biden won or not, we don't have the moral clarity to rule.”
The argument came as he seeks to dismiss a lawsuit filed in the state by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), seeking to have him disqualified from the ballot in the state under the 14th Amendment. The Insurrection Clause of the amendment prohibits those who have "engaged in insurrection" against the United States from holding a civil, military, or elected office without unless a two-thirds majority of the House and Senate approve.
But Trump's lawyers are arguing that the specific language of the Constitution argues that this requirement only applies to people in offices who are bound to "support" the Constitution — and the presidency is not one of those offices.
POLL: Should Trump be allowed to run for office?
"The Presidential oath, which the framers of the Fourteenth Amendment surely knew, requires the President to swear to 'preserve, protect and defend' the Constitution — not to 'support' the Constitution," said the filing by Trump's attorneys. "Because the framers chose to define the group of people subject to Section Three by an oath to 'support' the Constitution of the United States, and not by an oath to 'preserve, protect and defend' the Constitution, the framers of the Fourteenth Amendment never intended for it to apply to the President."
The former president has already tried to remove the 14th Amendment case to federal court, but this motion was denied.
Other lawsuits are trying to disqualify Trump on the same grounds in other states, including Minnesota. However, these cases face obstacles, chiefly that the 14th Amendment doesn't lay out a clear enforcement mechanism, according to experts.
********************************************************************************************
State lawsuit aims to remove Trump from the ballot
Six Colorado voters filed a lawsuit in September seeking to keep former President Donald Trump off the state’s ballots under the 14th Amendment Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold joins Morning Joe to discuss.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/state-lawsuit-aims-to-remove-trump-from-the-ballot/vi-AA1i3bt2?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=32257c9992134e04ffd44a1f82188515&ei=10#details
*********************************************************************************************
RX: Republicans against Trump @RpsAgainstTrump
WOW.
Republican Rep. Ken Buck voted present on the Speaker race, because both Jordan and Scalise voted to overturn the 2020 election results:
“If we don't have the moral clarity to decide whether President Biden won or not, we don't have the moral clarity to rule.”
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Oct 11, 2023
October 11th, 2023 at 4:49:53 PM
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You know, if you’re going to plagiarize / steal an entire article, you could at least link to the source. But there’s probably a WoV rule against copypasta entire articles anyway, and if there’s not, there should be.
I run Easy Vegas ( https://easy.vegas )
October 11th, 2023 at 4:57:27 PM
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X is down for me so I can't really get to the source I'm used to getting this article from. But if you can get to the Raw Story website it might be there. I got it from my taskbar which comes up with stories or incomplete stories with bad formatting in the Edge browser (Microsoft Start) that are usually too difficult to copy/paste but this time it worked. I figure just linking it from X or the Edge browser (Microsoft Start) is not much good nowadays.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-tells-court-he-had-no-duty-to-support-the-constitution-as-president/ar-AA1i3W4m?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=38ca26ea344446e0bf5585f07050c2fb&ei=19
How many times do you hear the word Trump in a day and not here?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-tells-court-he-had-no-duty-to-support-the-constitution-as-president/ar-AA1i3W4m?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=38ca26ea344446e0bf5585f07050c2fb&ei=19
How many times do you hear the word Trump in a day and not here?
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Oct 11, 2023
October 11th, 2023 at 5:03:51 PM
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Quote: MichaelBluejayYou know, if you’re going to plagiarize / steal an entire article, you could at least link to the source. But there’s probably a WoV rule against copypasta entire articles anyway, and if there’s not, there should be.
link to original post
You can read our Rules here: Forum rules
Rule #2 Respect copyright: Don't post entire articles from other sources. If you must quote without permission, do so sparingly, and properly indicate the source.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
October 12th, 2023 at 11:46:16 AM
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Trump is leading Biden in both Pennsylvania and Michigan. This is significant because in 2020 Trump never led Biden in any poll ever in either of these states.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
October 12th, 2023 at 12:21:23 PM
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Trump has already lost the popular vote twice. Anybody have any money on whether he'll lose it a third time? Or is the third time the charm? I don't see how he can do it... He certainly hasn't done anything to gain any more voters, and RFK is more than likely going to siphon some off. I think Biden has probably lost some popular votes as well, though, but probably not as much as Trump.
I just briefly tried to find some betting odds for popular and electoral vote outcomes, but I didn't have any success.
I just briefly tried to find some betting odds for popular and electoral vote outcomes, but I didn't have any success.
October 12th, 2023 at 12:33:17 PM
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Maybe Hillary will come save the day. Or has EB finally given insisting she’ll run again?
I don’t think there’s anything Trump’s can do, but, it’s also clear Joe isn’t what he was when he was VP. Not senile, just old. Yea I know….Donny’s almost as old, in way worse physical condition, and unstable temperament. Let’s call it a recency bias for how age might seem more an issue for Joe to some.
I honestly believe America would be ready for electing the first gay president over choosing between two men that age after living through the last 7 years..
I don’t think there’s anything Trump’s can do, but, it’s also clear Joe isn’t what he was when he was VP. Not senile, just old. Yea I know….Donny’s almost as old, in way worse physical condition, and unstable temperament. Let’s call it a recency bias for how age might seem more an issue for Joe to some.
I honestly believe America would be ready for electing the first gay president over choosing between two men that age after living through the last 7 years..
October 12th, 2023 at 3:14:42 PM
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Biden's gonna have competition supposedly. Cenk Uygur from The Young Turks that internet news source that's been around for 20 years has entered the race. He was born in Turkey so that would make him ineligible to be president according to everything most people learned in school decades ago. But he says there's recent precedent to allow him to run for president. So he just filed the paperwork. I'll wait to see if it gets rejected and makes it way to the Supreme Court or if it will be accepted then rejected when Trump gets wind of his candidacy and makes a foul stink. But Cenk Uygur says Biden is losing to Trump by too much and it's unrecoverable so he's going to plow his way into the race and push Biden off the stage and beat back the Trump firehose of misinformation and lies. He'll be running as a progressive on the order of an AOC and will be looking to force the Manchins and Sinemas of the world to get out of office. He has a beef with the donors of all the politicians. We elect politicians then they don't do what 80% of the voters want them to do because the oligarchs of the US have bought and paid for the politicians.
So here's his announcement video from last night, and the comment section is either for him or against him. He's a former Republican so I don't know how that's going to help him stand up in left wing circles, but Trump used to be left wing for some reason. Anna Kasparian, his co-host, will have to find a new co-host, or maybe a new company if he does become president, because he owns and runs the company, but she could easily sub for him I suppose.
So here's his announcement video from last night, and the comment section is either for him or against him. He's a former Republican so I don't know how that's going to help him stand up in left wing circles, but Trump used to be left wing for some reason. Anna Kasparian, his co-host, will have to find a new co-host, or maybe a new company if he does become president, because he owns and runs the company, but she could easily sub for him I suppose.
October 12th, 2023 at 3:14:44 PM
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Quote: TigerWuTrump has already lost the popular vote twice. Anybody have any money on whether he'll lose it a third time? Or is the third time the charm? I don't see how he can do it... He certainly hasn't done anything to gain any more voters,
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Not true according to recent polls.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
October 12th, 2023 at 3:41:24 PM
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The latest Fox poll has Biden topping Trump, but losing to Haley and Desantis.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
October 12th, 2023 at 3:50:11 PM
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I haven't heard Trump lost 50 points. It must have been a flash crash. Maybe his support for Hezbollah and their 100,000 rockets ready for use any day now is what he's wanting.
October 12th, 2023 at 4:13:19 PM
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Quote: MichaelBluejayYou know, if you’re going to plagiarize / steal an entire article, you could at least link to the source. But there’s probably a WoV rule against copypasta entire articles anyway, and if there’s not, there should be.
link to original post
I agree and that is rule 2.
Quote: Rule 2Respect copyright: Don't post entire articles from other sources. If you must quote without permission, do so sparingly, and properly indicate the source.
Warning issued to ChumpChange for this post.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 12th, 2023 at 5:09:57 PM
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There is still no second in line to the Presidency tonight, well at least the Speaker isn't the 2nd in line. Steve Scalise has withdrawn from the Speaker race after winning the nomination 113-99 yesterday. Expect a gov't shutdown on November 17th at this rate. They don't even think Jesus can get 217 votes in the GOP conference. I dunno why they'd be voting for Jesus, they'll be voting for Gym Jordan next.
Current order of succession
No. Office --- Incumbent
1 Vice President --- Kamala Harris
– Speaker of the House of Representatives ----Vacant
2 President pro tempore of the Senate ---Patty Murray
3 Secretary of State ---Antony Blinken
The memes have escalated to flame throwing elephants.
'We might never elect a speaker': Republican House in complete disarray after meeting
Current order of succession
No. Office --- Incumbent
1 Vice President --- Kamala Harris
– Speaker of the House of Representatives ----Vacant
2 President pro tempore of the Senate ---Patty Murray
3 Secretary of State ---Antony Blinken
The memes have escalated to flame throwing elephants.
'We might never elect a speaker': Republican House in complete disarray after meeting
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Oct 12, 2023
October 12th, 2023 at 8:56:49 PM
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I think Dems to win popular vote is -500 on Bovada.
Republican +400 has a shot I suppose.
Republican +400 has a shot I suppose.
October 12th, 2023 at 9:30:10 PM
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Sorry, I should have looked it up, but I was on my phone and it was kind of cumbersome. Next time there's a question I'll either look it up or not post about it if I can't easily look up.Quote: WizardQuote: MichaelBluejayYou know, if you’re going to plagiarize / steal an entire article, you could at least link to the source. But there’s probably a WoV rule against copypasta entire articles anyway, and if there’s not, there should be.
link to original post
I agree and that is rule 2.
link to original post
I run Easy Vegas ( https://easy.vegas )
October 13th, 2023 at 7:15:02 AM
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Quote: FinsRuleI think Dems to win popular vote is -500 on Bovada.
Republican +400 has a shot I suppose.
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Sounds about right. If I were to bet, I'd put money on the Dems to win popular for sure, especially if RFKJr gains traction.
October 13th, 2023 at 10:47:06 AM
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Only one listed on RCP has Biden over Trump all the rest have Trump over Biden.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
October 13th, 2023 at 12:11:59 PM
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I wonder if any of the following will happen, and if they do, will it hurt Trump, either in polling or betting odds:
1) Becoming a convicted felon - this seems more than likely to happen; I honestly don't think it will hurt him much.
2) Successful 14th Amendment challenges - seems very unlikely, but if it happens in just one or two key states, his odds will plummet.
3) Subject to more indictments - could definitely happen, but I don't think it will hurt him.
4) RNC and/or GOP completely disowning him and throwing their weight behind someone else - I think this is plausible, and would fracture the party more than it already is; would most likely hurt him.
5) Trump dropping out of the GOP and going third party against RFK Jr. - see #4.
6) Trump dying or otherwise becoming extremely unhealthy - I think the stress is getting to him, but I don't think anything is likely before the election.
7) Biden dying or otherwise becoming extremely unhealthy - I think this is more likely than #6, but I honestly think it would hurt Trump because a huge reason people are against Biden is that he's "too old and feeble." Forcing the Dems to put forward a "younger" candidate would almost certainly help them and rope in some undecided and "not Biden" voters.
1) Becoming a convicted felon - this seems more than likely to happen; I honestly don't think it will hurt him much.
2) Successful 14th Amendment challenges - seems very unlikely, but if it happens in just one or two key states, his odds will plummet.
3) Subject to more indictments - could definitely happen, but I don't think it will hurt him.
4) RNC and/or GOP completely disowning him and throwing their weight behind someone else - I think this is plausible, and would fracture the party more than it already is; would most likely hurt him.
5) Trump dropping out of the GOP and going third party against RFK Jr. - see #4.
6) Trump dying or otherwise becoming extremely unhealthy - I think the stress is getting to him, but I don't think anything is likely before the election.
7) Biden dying or otherwise becoming extremely unhealthy - I think this is more likely than #6, but I honestly think it would hurt Trump because a huge reason people are against Biden is that he's "too old and feeble." Forcing the Dems to put forward a "younger" candidate would almost certainly help them and rope in some undecided and "not Biden" voters.
October 13th, 2023 at 4:38:14 PM
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Quote: EvenBobOnly one listed on RCP has Biden over Trump all the rest have Trump over Biden.
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Since it’s not a head to head matchup, there are no conclusions you can draw from this that would make you think Trump is winning.
October 13th, 2023 at 6:02:56 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleQuote: EvenBobOnly one listed on RCP has Biden over Trump all the rest have Trump over Biden.
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Since it’s not a head to head matchup, there are no conclusions you can draw from this that would make you think Trump is winning.
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The conclusion to be drawn is not one single time, at any time, was Trump in this position in either 2016 or 2020. This far off from the election that's the only conclusion you can draw from all the polls and believe it or not it does mean something and the people in the respective political camps know this better than anybody. Remember that in 2016 Hillary led in all the betting concerns by so much for so long that one of them actually paid off the Hillary bets early so they didn't have to take anymore. We all know how that turned out, they ended up paying for both Hillary and Trump.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
October 13th, 2023 at 6:48:05 PM
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Trump had much higher than a 33.8% chance of winning re-election a year before Election Day 2020.
October 13th, 2023 at 7:25:40 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleTrump had much higher than a 33.8% chance of winning re-election a year before Election Day 2020.
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But it wasn't better than Biden.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
October 14th, 2023 at 12:39:29 AM
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Hi,
In the upcoming 2020 Election, there's an interesting betting scenario. Book A offers Joe Biden to win at +500 ($6.00 AUD), while Book B has the field vs. Joe Biden at -335 USD. Considering the edge is about +6.75%, it might be more valuable to bet on Joe Biden at $6. However, it's essential to factor in currency exchange costs when betting on both outcomes, which could potentially offset the advantage.
advises careful consideration of these costs to make an informed decision.
In the upcoming 2020 Election, there's an interesting betting scenario. Book A offers Joe Biden to win at +500 ($6.00 AUD), while Book B has the field vs. Joe Biden at -335 USD. Considering the edge is about +6.75%, it might be more valuable to bet on Joe Biden at $6. However, it's essential to factor in currency exchange costs when betting on both outcomes, which could potentially offset the advantage.
advises careful consideration of these costs to make an informed decision.
Bhatti
October 14th, 2023 at 12:47:04 AM
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The dollar will keep getting stronger until there is an intervention to cut it by half. I think it's around 107 on the DXY and could go to 120. It's been going up all year so what's to stop it?
October 14th, 2023 at 3:13:58 AM
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Two facts:
(1) Trump has never polled so well. He's blowing away his performance in 2016 and 2020.
(2) Trump is beating Biden by most measures.
√ Trump • Electoral votes based on swing state polls
√ Trump • Electoral votes based on swing state polls, if polls are as inaccurate as in 2020
√ Trump • ElectionBettingOdds.com
√ Trump • Popular vote (RCP average)
√ Biden • PredictIT
I updated my spreadsheet to include all these measures, and added the link to my signature. I'll try to update it every day.
(1) Trump has never polled so well. He's blowing away his performance in 2016 and 2020.
(2) Trump is beating Biden by most measures.
√ Trump • Electoral votes based on swing state polls
√ Trump • Electoral votes based on swing state polls, if polls are as inaccurate as in 2020
√ Trump • ElectionBettingOdds.com
√ Trump • Popular vote (RCP average)
√ Biden • PredictIT
I updated my spreadsheet to include all these measures, and added the link to my signature. I'll try to update it every day.
I run Easy Vegas ( https://easy.vegas )
October 14th, 2023 at 7:21:23 AM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: FinsRuleTrump had much higher than a 33.8% chance of winning re-election a year before Election Day 2020.
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But it wasn't better than Biden.
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A year before the election? Lol. Yes it was.
October 14th, 2023 at 7:36:10 AM
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Looks like the polls I’ve seen show Haley or DeSantis beating Biden by more than Trump would beat Biden.
I wonder if there are odds on potential Newsom-Haley or Newsom -DeSantis races? I’d take any non Trump Republican over any Democrat.
I wonder if there are odds on potential Newsom-Haley or Newsom -DeSantis races? I’d take any non Trump Republican over any Democrat.
October 14th, 2023 at 7:51:18 AM
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Quote: MichaelBluejayTwo facts:
(1) Trump has never polled so well. He's blowing away his performance in 2016 and 2020.
(2) Trump is beating Biden by most measures.
√ Trump • Electoral votes based on swing state polls
√ Trump • Electoral votes based on swing state polls, if polls are as inaccurate as in 2020
√ Trump • ElectionBettingOdds.com
√ Trump • Popular vote (RCP average)
√ Biden • PredictIT
I updated my spreadsheet to include all these measures, and added the link to my signature. I'll try to update it every day.
link to original post
#1 is not a fact!
Am I missing something?
He polled MUCH better than this, October 2019.
This is not a “high point” for Trumps popularity. If that’s the argument you’re trying to make.
I’ll not even going to touch the rest of it. But election betting odds puts Michelle Obama as a 5% chance of being president. In what world?
We are about 4-5 months away from being able to draw any conclusions. Right now Bovada has Dems -110 and republicans -105 to win in 2024. Sounds close enough to me.
Trump is the individual favorite because the market thinks the Republican challengers are slightly less of a threat than the Dem challengers. This does not mean that in a head to head matchup, Trump is currently favored by oddsmakers.
I’m going to keep saying currently. Because it will all change. Trump can definitely end up being the head to head favorite
October 14th, 2023 at 7:51:32 AM
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I could find only one Newsom vs. Desantis poll, which has Newsom +2. Couldn't find any Haley vs. Newsom poll.
I run Easy Vegas ( https://easy.vegas )
October 14th, 2023 at 7:57:34 AM
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Quote: MichaelBluejayI could find only one Newsom vs. Desantis poll, which has Newsom +2. Couldn't find any Haley vs. Newsom poll.
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Thanks. Since that is popular vote, that would make DeSantis more likely to win the EC, right? Due to millions of ‘wasted votes’ in NY, Cali?
If I told you, Mr. Bluejay, that the results are in for 2024 and the Dem candidate won the popular vote by 2%, what would you make the odds of the Dem winning the EC?
October 14th, 2023 at 8:01:48 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: MichaelBluejayI could find only one Newsom vs. Desantis poll, which has Newsom +2. Couldn't find any Haley vs. Newsom poll.
link to original post
Thanks. Since that is popular vote, that would make DeSantis more likely to win the EC, right? Due to millions of ‘wasted votes’ in NY, Cali?
If I told you, Mr. Bluejay, that the results are in for 2024 and the Dem candidate won the popular vote by 2%, what would you make the odds of the Dem winning the EC?
link to original post
I have my answer. But I’ll let Mr Bluejay go first.
October 14th, 2023 at 8:04:21 AM
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I agree that Newsom +2 in popular vote makes Desantis the favorite in the electoral college.
That would depend on which states the respective candidates are from. As you said, Newsom would likely get extra popular votes in California, which would be wasted since it wouldn't change how many electoral votes he got from California. In the last two elections, Republicans had a big advantage in the electoral college, where Hillary won the PV by 2.5% but still lost the EC, and Biden's 4.5% advantage in the PV meant that he just barely squeaked by in four states to get the electoral college. However, that might not be the case this time around. Until recently, Biden and Trump were about even in the PV but Biden still had a lead in the EC (but he's now behind in the EC, as of about two weeks ago).Quote: SoopooIf I told you, Mr. Bluejay, that the results are in for 2024 and the Dem candidate won the popular vote by 2%, what would you make the odds of the Dem winning the EC?
I run Easy Vegas ( https://easy.vegas )
October 14th, 2023 at 2:20:15 PM
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When other Republicans inevitably start dropping out from the primary, how many of their supporters will move over to Biden (or whatever Dem is running) or not support anyone? I know there are (supposedly) a lot of "Never Trumper" Republicans, but it is enough to help the Dems when it gets down to it?
October 14th, 2023 at 3:59:10 PM
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Quote: TigerWuWhen other Republicans inevitably start dropping out from the primary, how many of their supporters will move over to Biden (or whatever Dem is running) or not support anyone? I know there are (supposedly) a lot of "Never Trumper" Republicans, but it is enough to help the Dems when it gets down to it?
link to original post
My guess would be that most of those people just won't vote.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
October 14th, 2023 at 4:05:41 PM
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Quote: MichaelBluejayI could find only one Newsom vs. Desantis poll, which has Newsom +2. Couldn't find any Haley vs. Newsom poll.
link to original post
That poll is from last February when DeSantis looked like the anointed “non-Trump” alternative, he has sunk like a rock ever since May when he officially announced.
Would love to see a new poll comparing them.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
October 17th, 2023 at 11:24:02 AM
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Average of three recent polls in Michigan has Trump leading Biden. There was never an instance leading up to the 2020 election where Trump was ever ahead of Biden in Michigan.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
October 17th, 2023 at 1:48:53 PM
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Quote: EvenBobAverage of three recent polls in Michigan has Trump leading Biden. There was never an instance leading up to the 2020 election where Trump was ever ahead of Biden in Michigan.
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As per my ‘Trump aint winning’ theme, if anyone wants this bet my window is open
Trump wins at least one electoral college vote from Michigan.
I’ll take the NO at even money.
October 17th, 2023 at 2:47:39 PM
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Quote: EvenBobAverage of three recent polls in Michigan has Trump leading Biden. There was never an instance leading up to the 2020 election where Trump was ever ahead of Biden in Michigan.
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And yet you claim he actually won Michigan in 2020….
See the disconnect there?
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
October 18th, 2023 at 5:00:41 AM
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Quote:2024 National GE:
Biden 44% (+7)
Trump 37%
Kennedy 16%
.@maristpoll/@NPR/@NewsHour, 1,218 RV, 10/11
Hmmm… maybe RFK Jr. is helpful to Biden?
(As I’ve been saying all along)
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
October 18th, 2023 at 7:23:05 AM
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Quote: ams288Quote:2024 National GE:
Biden 44% (+7)
Trump 37%
Kennedy 16%
.@maristpoll/@NPR/@NewsHour, 1,218 RV, 10/11
Hmmm… maybe RFK Jr. is helpful to Biden?
(As I’ve been saying all along)
link to original post
RFKJ spouts Republican talking points and is speaking at a CPAC event this week. If he can stay in the game, then Biden is going to be handed the election on a silver platter.
October 18th, 2023 at 10:09:01 AM
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I wonder if there is an over/under on how many ballots it will take to elect a speaker.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland.
And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with.
- AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
October 18th, 2023 at 10:17:57 AM
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Quote: DeucekiesI wonder if there is an over/under on how many ballots it will take to elect a speaker.
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It's not looking good for Jordan. I think he lost a few votes on the second round.
I think it's going to be less than five rounds. GOP in the House is an absolute train wreck right now, and they know it. They're either going to cut a deal with Dems or throw in the towel on Jordan and go with someone way more moderate.
October 18th, 2023 at 10:29:22 AM
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GOP has no interest in governing and there will be no speaker until the next Congress.
October 18th, 2023 at 10:51:27 AM
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Quote: TigerWu
RFKJ spouts Republican talking points and is speaking at a CPAC event this week. If he can stay in the game, then Biden is going to be handed the election on a silver platter.
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Another poll says something totally different. This poll with RFK Jr in the mix has Trump winning in most of the Battleground States.
"When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included in our hypothetical voting intention poll as an independent candidate, Donald Trump leads in five of the six states polled."
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
October 18th, 2023 at 10:53:08 AM
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Quote: ChumpChangeGOP has no interest in governing and there will be no speaker until the next Congress.
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Can your government function at all without a speaker? Can debt ceilings be dealt with? Is the Republican party just closing down the US because of its internal issues?
I keep trying to anticipate government shut downs and their consequences. US politics amaze me.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
October 18th, 2023 at 11:01:43 AM
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The military won't get paid after November 17th, we'll see. The last speaker was removed because they were paid on October 1st.
