Presidential Election Betting
Quote: SOOPOOMaybe I am out of touch, but I still feel Trump has no chance to be President again. That there are just too many ‘middle’ voters that just couldn’t vote for him under any circumstance.
I’ll make an offer. $10 says Trump does not get 220 or more electoral votes in 2024 election. That’s a landslide loss. Or not even getting the nomination.
I’ll take the first 10 members who want action. If I lose $100, I deserve it….
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It makes no sense to me why Trump is polling as high as he is. I think it's mostly people just waiting to see how some of these trials turn out before they jump ship. I think if it looks like he is going to face some serious consequences from any of his trials, the dominoes are going to start toppling and his poll numbers (and betting odds) will plummet.
I wouldn't take your bet because I agree that he has practically no chance to be President again. At this point I'm not 100% about Biden either, but I think his odds are slightly better...lol
EDIT: Trump now wants all future Republican debates canceled since he refuses to participate. Methinks he's getting scared someone else will start looking better by comparison...
Quote: billryanHow does Speaker Trump sound? If his name is put into nomination, I can't imagine a single republican would go against it. If you want to bet a longshot- there it is. But bet quickly as the odds will drop towards the weekend.
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Speaking of betting on the Speaker, I wonder if anybody is offering an over/under on how many rounds of voting it will take to get a Speaker this time.
Quote: billryanHow does Speaker Trump sound? If his name is put into nomination, I can't imagine a single republican would go against it. If you want to bet a longshot- there it is. But bet quickly as the odds will drop towards the weekend.
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I’ll bet you ANY (virtually!) amount of money if Trump is nominated for Speaker there would be Republicans not voting for him.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: billryanHow does Speaker Trump sound? If his name is put into nomination, I can't imagine a single republican would go against it. If you want to bet a longshot- there it is. But bet quickly as the odds will drop towards the weekend.
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I’ll bet you ANY (virtually!) amount of money if Trump is nominated for Speaker there would be Republicans not voting for him.
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In the House, where they will all be on the same primary ballot as mistertee?
Quote: ams288Quote: MichaelBluejayAlso, Trump is now the favorite at ElectionBettingOdds.com, which has a pretty good track record in picking elections.
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Did they have trump as the favorite in September 2015?
Did they have Biden as the favorite in September 2019?
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It’s a lot easier to be right closer to the election. I’ll just keep saying it. It’s too early.
I’m deferring to Nate. If he says it’s way too early, it’s way too early.
It's an actual job where you have to work on a daily basis. He wouldn't be able to go to rallies and play golf.
I don't know what the betting odds for it are, but they better be astronomical.
Quote: TigerWuNegative a hundred million percent chance Trump becomes Speaker.
It's an actual job where you have to work on a daily basis. He wouldn't be able to go to rallies and play golf.
I don't know what the betting odds for it are, but they better be astronomical.
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Agree he won’t be speaker. But I think President is an actual job, and he went to rallies and played golf.
Quote: ams288I don’t think he can be Speaker, based on the House rules package the GOP passed.
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I wonder if that rule was passed SPECIFICALLY with Trump in mind? Anyway, I wonder if there will ever be a time when a non elected official is Speaker? Like maybe an ex President like Obama? Or business tycoon like Mark Cuban? Or Taylor Swift?
Quote: ams288I don’t think he can be Speaker, based on the House rules package the GOP passed.
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Yeah, because that party is sticklers to their own rules. McCarthy violated one of the Republicans' cardinal rules. Never introduce a bill that the majority of his party doesn't support.
A simple secret vote of Republican leadership can let them disregard rule 26B.
Quote: AxelWolf
How does one make investment if they have no money due to a low paying paycheck to paycheck income?
Start a pyramid scheme.
Steve Scalise: -120
Kevin Hern: +700
Mike Johnson: +700
Elise Stefanik: +900
Tom Emmer: +1000
Donald Trump: +1000
Patrick McHenry: +1200
Jim Jordan: +1200
Hakeem Jeffries: +3300
Byron Donalds: +3300
Garret Graves: +3300
Marjorie Taylor Greene: +6600
Brian Fitzpatrick: +6600
Gary Palmer: +6600
Matt Gaetz: +6600
Rich Hudson: +6600
Lauren Boebert: +20000
Paul Gosar: +20000
The Speaker could ensure the government shuts down in forty-five days.
Quote: SOOPOOI wonder if that rule was passed SPECIFICALLY with Trump in mind? Anyway, I wonder if there will ever be a time when a non elected official is Speaker? Like maybe an ex President like Obama? Or business tycoon like Mark Cuban? Or Taylor Swift?
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I think many ex-Presidents might take a conservative reading of the intent of the 22nd Amendment and recuse themselves from the line of succession.
Well, by most measures Trump is currently the *favorite*, so the idea of him winning isn’t a stretch at all. I’ll take your bet, my $10 says Trump gets at least 220 electoral votes assuming it’s a Biden-Trump contest. I don’t see Trump losing much support even if he’s convicted on all counts. His supporters will just dismiss the convictions as being politically motivated.Quote: SOOPOOMaybe I am out of touch, but I still feel Trump has no chance to be President again. …
I’ll make an offer. $10 says Trump does not get 220 or more electoral votes in 2024 election. …
I’ll take the first 10 members who want action.
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Quote: MichaelBluejayWell, by most measures Trump is currently the *favorite*, so the idea of him winning isn’t a stretch at all. I’ll take your bet, my $10 says Trump gets at least 220 electoral votes assuming it’s a Biden-Trump contest. I don’t see Trump losing much support even if he’s convicted on all counts. His supporters will just dismiss the convictions as being politically motivated.Quote: SOOPOOMaybe I am out of touch, but I still feel Trump has no chance to be President again. …
I’ll make an offer. $10 says Trump does not get 220 or more electoral votes in 2024 election. …
I’ll take the first 10 members who want action.
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Hate to barge in, but this bet is only fair if you take out the Biden-Trump condition of the bet.
I’d still be on the trump side of this. 220 is not a lot of votes.
Quote: FinsRuleQuote: MichaelBluejayWell, by most measures Trump is currently the *favorite*, so the idea of him winning isn’t a stretch at all. I’ll take your bet, my $10 says Trump gets at least 220 electoral votes assuming it’s a Biden-Trump contest. I don’t see Trump losing much support even if he’s convicted on all counts. His supporters will just dismiss the convictions as being politically motivated.Quote: SOOPOOMaybe I am out of touch, but I still feel Trump has no chance to be President again. …
I’ll make an offer. $10 says Trump does not get 220 or more electoral votes in 2024 election. …
I’ll take the first 10 members who want action.
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Hate to barge in, but this bet is only fair if you take out the Biden-Trump condition of the bet.
I’d still be on the trump side of this. 220 is not a lot of votes.
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Bluejays law says this makes me a Trump supporter?
Quote: FinsRuleQuote: MichaelBluejayWell, by most measures Trump is currently the *favorite*, so the idea of him winning isn’t a stretch at all. I’ll take your bet, my $10 says Trump gets at least 220 electoral votes assuming it’s a Biden-Trump contest. I don’t see Trump losing much support even if he’s convicted on all counts. His supporters will just dismiss the convictions as being politically motivated.Quote: SOOPOOMaybe I am out of touch, but I still feel Trump has no chance to be President again. …
I’ll make an offer. $10 says Trump does not get 220 or more electoral votes in 2024 election. …
I’ll take the first 10 members who want action.
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Hate to barge in, but this bet is only fair if you take out the Biden-Trump condition of the bet.
I’d still be on the trump side of this. 220 is not a lot of votes.
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Donnie got 232 in 2020. I bet he holds serve and gets at least that many. What's the current over/under in electoral votes?
Bluejay’s law would say you’re more likely to be a Trump supporter, not that you definitely are.Quote: FinsRuleBluejays law says this makes me a Trump supporter?
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Quote: MichaelBluejay= If the election were held today, he’d be expected to win by more than a trivial number of electoral votes (in this case, 44).
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If you have faith in your model, you should be betting it. He’s an underdog on predictit
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ams288I don’t think he can be Speaker, based on the House rules package the GOP passed.
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I wonder if that rule was passed SPECIFICALLY with Trump in mind? Anyway, I wonder if there will ever be a time when a non elected official is Speaker? Like maybe an ex President like Obama? Or business tycoon like Mark Cuban? Or Taylor Swift?
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Radio, unrelated TV programs, unrelated forum threads, there really is no escaping Swift in your face anywhere you go at the moment.
Quote: mcallister3200Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ams288I don’t think he can be Speaker, based on the House rules package the GOP passed.
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I wonder if that rule was passed SPECIFICALLY with Trump in mind? Anyway, I wonder if there will ever be a time when a non elected official is Speaker? Like maybe an ex President like Obama? Or business tycoon like Mark Cuban? Or Taylor Swift?
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Radio, unrelated TV programs, unrelated forum threads, there really is no escaping Swift in your face anywhere you go at the moment.
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Kinda like The Beatles or Michael Jackson back in the day...
it could be worst they could be talking about Kathy Griffin.Quote: mcallister3200Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ams288I don’t think he can be Speaker, based on the House rules package the GOP passed.
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I wonder if that rule was passed SPECIFICALLY with Trump in mind? Anyway, I wonder if there will ever be a time when a non elected official is Speaker? Like maybe an ex President like Obama? Or business tycoon like Mark Cuban? Or Taylor Swift?
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Radio, unrelated TV programs, unrelated forum threads, there really is no escaping Swift in your face anywhere you go at the moment.
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Like I said, polls are based on an election held TODAY. I cannot bet on an election held today.Quote: FinsRuleQuote: MichaelBluejay= If the election were held today, he’d be expected to win by more than a trivial number of electoral votes (in this case, 44).
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If you have faith in your model, you should be betting it. He’s an underdog on predictit
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However, I do intend to bet on Trump to win, as I did in 2016 (when most outlets predicted he wouldn’t).
I don’t know anything about PredictIt’s track record (and I couldn’t find anything on their website), but ElectionBettingOdds.com, which has an excellent track record, has Trump ahead.
I.e., "F***.... he's President again. Well, at least I won some money out of it..."
I can't imagine it's not an insignificant number...
Israel in a state of war. President Biden to address the nation at 2:30 pm ET.
The U.S. has no ambassador to Israel.
Quote: MichaelBluejay= If the election were held today, he’d be expected to win by more than a trivial number of electoral votes (in this case, 44).
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This is a bad way to define “clear favorite”
If a candidate is .1 ahead in states that make them have a large electoral college lead, they are a tiny favorite.
Quote: EvenBobThis betting site has Trump ahead over Biden
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If election betting odds were not overestimating Newsom’s odds, Biden would be the favorite.
Quote: AxelWolfit could be worst they could be talking about Kathy Griffin.Quote: mcallister3200Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ams288I don’t think he can be Speaker, based on the House rules package the GOP passed.
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I wonder if that rule was passed SPECIFICALLY with Trump in mind? Anyway, I wonder if there will ever be a time when a non elected official is Speaker? Like maybe an ex President like Obama? Or business tycoon like Mark Cuban? Or Taylor Swift?
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Radio, unrelated TV programs, unrelated forum threads, there really is no escaping Swift in your face anywhere you go at the moment.
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Don’t threaten ams with a good time.
Yes, but Trump is TWO TO THREE POINTS AHEAD in 3-4 of the 5 swing states.Quote: FinsRuleQuote: MichaelBluejay= If the election were held today, he’d be expected to win by more than a trivial number of electoral votes (in this case, 44).
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This is a bad way to define “clear favorite”
If a candidate is .1 ahead in states that make them have a large electoral college lead, they are a tiny favorite.
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Let me guess, you didn’t visit my spreadsheet which I’ve linked to a gazillion times and which has all the figures before posting your comment?
As I said earlier, if I’m wrong I deserve to lose $100.
So bet offer open to first 10 members…
Quote: ams288I’m still not even convinced both candidates make it to next November so I just can’t take anything in this thread seriously.
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LOL same here.... I wouldn't bet any money on anything at this point. Way too many variables.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: ams288I’m still not even convinced both candidates make it to next November so I just can’t take anything in this thread seriously.
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LOL same here.... I wouldn't bet any money on anything at this point. Way too many variables.
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Geez guys! The whole idea of making a bet is trying to show you can analyze the variables better than the next guy.
That’s how I came to my bet offer of Trump getting less than 220 EVs. I plugged all the variables in and came up with the idea that there is a less than 50% chance he achieves that mark.
As of now no one has $10 that thinks I’m wrong.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: TigerWuQuote: ams288I’m still not even convinced both candidates make it to next November so I just can’t take anything in this thread seriously.
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LOL same here.... I wouldn't bet any money on anything at this point. Way too many variables.
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Geez guys! The whole idea of making a bet is trying to show you can analyze the variables better than the next guy.
That’s how I came to my bet offer of Trump getting less than 220 EVs. I plugged all the variables in and came up with the idea that there is a less than 50% chance he achieves that mark.
As of now no one has $10 that thinks I’m wrong.
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Fine, I’ll bet the $10.
