Super Bowl 2019
Thread Rating:
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19 members have voted
January 27th, 2019 at 8:09:53 PM
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Since nobody else has started one, let this be the spot to discuss the 2019 Super Bowl, other than my own Prop Bet Challenge.
As an average, at the moment the Pats are a 2.5 point favorite and the over/under is 56.5. Like every year, here is my quick and dirty analysis, looking at the 2018 regular season. The following table shows the average points scored and allowed by both teams.
My predicted points for each team is the average of their historical points per game and points allowed by the opponent. Doing this we get:
Pats = 25.625
Rams = 26.625
Very interesting! By this method, the Rams should be a one-point favorite. However, it gets argued every year whether or not the AFC is the tougher division. In that past, some have given the AFC team three points just for that. Doing so, the line would favor the Pats by 2, which is very close to where we are. Not many games end in a margin of victory of 2, so the difference between 2 and 2.5 is very small.
This same method is quite accurate for predicting the total, by averaging all four numbers and multiplying by 2, in which case you get 52.25. That makes the under seem like a strong bet.
As to the prop bets, here are two huge lists:
The question for the poll is who do you like against the spread and total?
As an average, at the moment the Pats are a 2.5 point favorite and the over/under is 56.5. Like every year, here is my quick and dirty analysis, looking at the 2018 regular season. The following table shows the average points scored and allowed by both teams.
| Team | Pts scored per game | Pts allowed per game | Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pats | 27.25 | 20.31 | 6.94 |
| Rams | 32.94 | 24.00 | 8.94 |
My predicted points for each team is the average of their historical points per game and points allowed by the opponent. Doing this we get:
Pats = 25.625
Rams = 26.625
Very interesting! By this method, the Rams should be a one-point favorite. However, it gets argued every year whether or not the AFC is the tougher division. In that past, some have given the AFC team three points just for that. Doing so, the line would favor the Pats by 2, which is very close to where we are. Not many games end in a margin of victory of 2, so the difference between 2 and 2.5 is very small.
This same method is quite accurate for predicting the total, by averaging all four numbers and multiplying by 2, in which case you get 52.25. That makes the under seem like a strong bet.
As to the prop bets, here are two huge lists:
The question for the poll is who do you like against the spread and total?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 28th, 2019 at 12:21:26 AM
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I’m making one bet this year. First half under. It was 28, and now it’s 27.5. I hope that half point doesn’t get me.
January 28th, 2019 at 1:05:05 AM
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I really don't know much about the NFL, and don't claim to. However, having done some fantasy football with friends for a few years, I'll now pretend to be an expert for about 2 minutes... I'm not a Patriots fan and don't want them to win (though I don't really care either way), but one thing I've always noticed is Tom Brady seems to play exceptionally better in the playoffs than he does during the regular season. Not only that, I feel like he had a particularly poorer than normal season this season, which could lead to some padded stats in the wrong direction. I may not like him, but I definitely don't ever break the rule "Don't bet money against Tom Brady."
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
January 28th, 2019 at 1:25:19 AM
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I got Rams +3.5 at -130 and u57 at -110. #Let'sGo
January 28th, 2019 at 1:26:43 AM
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lol bet with a "friend" or some random early action before real lines were set?Quote: RSI got Rams +3.5 at -130 and u57 at -110. #Let'sGo
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
January 28th, 2019 at 2:35:53 AM
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Quote: RomesI really don't know much about the NFL, and don't claim to. However, having done some fantasy football with friends for a few years, I'll now pretend to be an expert for about 2 minutes... I'm not a Patriots fan and don't want them to win (though I don't really care either way), but one thing I've always noticed is Tom Brady seems to play exceptionally better in the playoffs than he does during the regular season. Not only that, I feel like he had a particularly poorer than normal season this season, which could lead to some padded stats in the wrong direction. I may not like him, but I definitely don't ever break the rule "Don't bet money against Tom Brady."
To be fair, if you bet on Tom last year, you LOST although he did win 5 Super Bowls. IIRC, The Eagles won last year by a last minute/seconds big win.
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
"Olive oil is processed but it only has one
ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D
I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;)
Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D
"For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
January 28th, 2019 at 6:53:01 PM
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Is it just me or does there not seem to be much enthusiasm for the Super Bowl this year?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 28th, 2019 at 7:04:52 PM
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Quote: Romeslol bet with a "friend" or some random early action before real lines were set?
Nah I bet it at a book once lines were set.
At least I have friends to bet with, unlike you, who didn't want to bet djatc vs field in the NFL contest. Sorry, I'm still salty about it. :( If I tried to bet either of these with you, you'd be asking for me to lay -250, probably.
Quote: WizardIs it just me or does there not seem to be much enthusiasm for the Super Bowl this year?
I am very much enthused.
January 28th, 2019 at 7:39:18 PM
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Wade Philips defense vs Josh McDaniels offense. Denver vs New England 2015 New England loses 30-24 in OT 2016 Jan Playoff New England loses 30 to 18. 2016 regular season New England wins 16-3/ Denver fumbles twice and 1 interception. Denver defense on field 33+ minutes.
24 pts 18 pts 16pts. Wade has 2 weeks to prepare Ram's defense Aqib Talib played for Broncos in 2015 & 2016. Is back healthy now.
Taking the Under plus Rams and points.
Good Luck Everybody..
24 pts 18 pts 16pts. Wade has 2 weeks to prepare Ram's defense Aqib Talib played for Broncos in 2015 & 2016. Is back healthy now.
Taking the Under plus Rams and points.
Good Luck Everybody..
January 28th, 2019 at 7:49:32 PM
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I'm a Chief's fan so I think the Chiefs vs. the Pats was better than the Rams vs. the Pats. Also, the Chief's game was the 2nd most watched game in division history. With that said, Madden just predicted the Rams will win by 3pts.
I have to disagree with Madden. And while I agree with all the stats shown here and the spread, I think it under values the Pats. Showing the Pats as underdogs in any contest is ridiculous. Their winning record speaks for themselves. They're resourceful, sneaky, passionate, and the best at the 2 minute drills. They are a well honed machine. Hence, they are my second favorite.
I have to disagree with Madden. And while I agree with all the stats shown here and the spread, I think it under values the Pats. Showing the Pats as underdogs in any contest is ridiculous. Their winning record speaks for themselves. They're resourceful, sneaky, passionate, and the best at the 2 minute drills. They are a well honed machine. Hence, they are my second favorite.
January 28th, 2019 at 8:00:14 PM
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I'd like to win all my bets and for the Patriots and Rams to both lose by a hole in the ground created by demons from the 9th level of hell who swallow up the entire stadium, of course after my bets resolve. So preferably the last play of the 4th quarter would be nice.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
January 29th, 2019 at 12:10:50 AM
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lol I put "friend" in quotes because you're like one of my other friends whom isn't interested in a "fair" or "near fair" line. You'll try to fleece your friends, aka why I won't make a bet with you. I'm not giving you some massive edge =).Quote: RS...At least I have friends to bet with, unlike you...
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
January 29th, 2019 at 12:12:25 AM
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I like the Rams and the over. Time to get on the moneyline.
My Magic 8-Ball says the Rams D will be too much for the Pats to handle in the second half. The Rams will win by more than a touchdown, and the total will be in the high 60's, but not a prime. Of course, Magic 8-Ball also really hates Tom Brady, so I'm not sure how much of the magic is actually wishful thinking.
My Magic 8-Ball says the Rams D will be too much for the Pats to handle in the second half. The Rams will win by more than a touchdown, and the total will be in the high 60's, but not a prime. Of course, Magic 8-Ball also really hates Tom Brady, so I'm not sure how much of the magic is actually wishful thinking.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
January 29th, 2019 at 1:14:35 AM
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Quote: Romeslol I put "friend" in quotes because you're like one of my other friends whom isn't interested in a "fair" or "near fair" line. You'll try to fleece your friends, aka why I won't make a bet with you. I'm not giving you some massive edge =).
Nah I've never fleeced anyone nor tried to. Based on my quickmaffs you would'a had like a 10% edge. :(
And FFS please stop writing "whom" when it's actually "who". It's tilting. If you don't know (it's okay, not all of us have a college degree), just write "who". =)
To make up, I'll offer you a bet you can't refuse. You take either team to win the game and I'll offer you 1.2-for-1 odds.
January 29th, 2019 at 1:17:54 AM
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Whom just gives those kinds of odds away?!?!Quote: RS...To make up, I'll offer you a bet you can't refuse. You take either team to win the game and I'll offer you 1.2-for-1 odds.
How much? I guess if you're willing to leave the line open we can just discuss in person?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
January 29th, 2019 at 5:27:10 AM
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Quote: RSNah I've never fleeced anyone nor tried to. Based on my quickmaffs you would'a had like a 10% edge. :(
And FFS please stop writing "whom" when it's actually "who". It's tilting. If you don't know (it's okay, not all of us have a college degree), just write "who". =)
To make up, I'll offer you a bet you can't refuse. You take either team to win the game and I'll offer you 1.2-for-1 odds.
1.2 for 1! How generous. LOL
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
January 29th, 2019 at 4:09:26 PM
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As usual heavy on quite a few unders: game, half, and at least a couple quarters. Most sides have been on the Rams (+3 -20), but did take Patriots +7.5. I know there are a lot of great props out there, but I just haven't been motivated to look for them. Only one worth mentioning has been Brady 3Q TD +175.
January 29th, 2019 at 5:24:51 PM
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Quote: WizardIs it just me or does there not seem to be much enthusiasm for the Super Bowl this year?
The Rams are one of the three or four least popular clubs in the league, so that doesn't help. I think the hype will kick in a couple of days.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
January 29th, 2019 at 7:32:45 PM
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Quote: billryanThe Rams are one of the three or four least popular clubs in the league, so that doesn't help.
I can't argue with that. I always thought their uniforms were ugly, but I have to support any Los Angeles team, except the Angels.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 29th, 2019 at 8:37:58 PM
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Quote: WizardI can't argue with that. I always thought their uniforms were ugly, but I have to support any Los Angeles team, except the Angels.
Also the chargers
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
January 29th, 2019 at 10:31:15 PM
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Quote: WizardI can't argue with that. I always thought their uniforms were ugly, but I have to support any Los Angeles team, except the Angels.
Anaheim* Angels
January 30th, 2019 at 12:28:15 AM
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Quote: djatcAlso the chargers
Of course! I like them better.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 30th, 2019 at 12:29:25 AM
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Quote: RSAnaheim* Angels
No. I disowned them when they became the "Los Angeles Angels at Anaheim." Biggest insult to Orange County ever. Absolutely unforgivable.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 30th, 2019 at 6:23:45 AM
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Quote: WizardIs it just me or does there not seem to be much enthusiasm for the Super Bowl this year?
I stopped watching foosball obsessively when Marino retired. I kept watching for a bit, but stopped completely when I gave up TV 7 years ago. Just this year I started watching weekly again... and it's just trash. I hardly recognized what I was watching and spent every game asking for an explanation for the rules.
Defense has been reduced to two hand touch, unless it's Tom Brady, in which case laying all ten fingers on his person results in jail time. You can't tackle anyone due to fear he may move and a part of you might skin his dome, and every 3rd and long is a gimme first down to any franchise QB, who can just heave toward the heavens and wait for the flag. Any and every bit of heart and toughness has been removed, and it's become nothing but a bit of a group participation until, for reasons still unknown to me, something happens to trigger a GD dance troupe to erupt and perform theatrics. Why does every play end in some pose straight out of a late 70's rap group's album cover? Why is there time given for an entire team to run together to an end zone to perform a dance number? Any coach I've ever had would literally beat my ass if I attempted a mote of what I see on TV today.
It's ridiculous. An absolute clown show.
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
January 30th, 2019 at 8:06:03 AM
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Face, the NFL had to do SOMETHING due to the concussion issue.
There is no question that football tears people up and chews them out due to the violent hitting involved.
It makes sense to take steps to try to protect the players while still keeping the game going.
Yeah, the new rules and resultant penalties slow the game down but I understand and can accept the need for this sort of thing.
Let's just not wind up with flag football.
There is no question that football tears people up and chews them out due to the violent hitting involved.
It makes sense to take steps to try to protect the players while still keeping the game going.
Yeah, the new rules and resultant penalties slow the game down but I understand and can accept the need for this sort of thing.
Let's just not wind up with flag football.
"What, me worry?"
January 30th, 2019 at 10:08:38 AM
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Late 70s rap groups? Wow.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
January 30th, 2019 at 10:49:04 AM
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Quote: billryanLate 70s rap groups? Wow.
Compare any TD (or int, or, hell, even a simple tackle for a loss) to an album cover of Kool and the Gang, Grandmaster Flash and the Furious 5, or Doug E Fresh and the Get Fresh Crew. Buncha dudes lined up in different poses, hamming for the camera. After living through the Jim Browne era, the Walter Payton era, the Barry Sanders era, the Emmitt Smith era, you don't find it a little odd and off-putting?
I sure as hell do, and I find it quite offensive. Perhaps we were just raised differently.
Use to be such idiocy was met with a shot to the mouth; remember TO on the Dallas star? Now they make time for it. Kids seem to love it. I find it to be trash.
Quote: MrVFace, the NFL had to do SOMETHING due to the concussion issue.
There is no question that football tears people up and chews them out due to the violent hitting involved.
It makes sense to take steps to try to protect the players while still keeping the game going.
Yeah, the new rules and resultant penalties slow the game down but I understand and can accept the need for this sort of thing.
Let's just not wind up with flag football.
Do doubt and no argument. Were I a god I'd damn the NFL, not for the injuries, but DEFINITELY for their damnable coverup of CTE findings. That is an offense for which I'd levy billion dollar fines and to hell with whether NFL could survive or not. Kind of disgusted nothing ever really come from that.
But I do feel you could've kept to purity just by lessening the gear. Dress more like rugby/lacrosse and you wouldn't have folks so eager to transform into a 200lb, 20mph human projectiles. But I'm not Goodell, and we thank the good lord for that.
Oh well. It's just entertainment. No great loss.
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
January 30th, 2019 at 3:30:28 PM
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Quote: MrVFace, the NFL had to do SOMETHING due to the concussion issue.
There is no question that football tears people up and chews them out due to the violent hitting involved.
It makes sense to take steps to try to protect the players while still keeping the game going.
Yeah, the new rules and resultant penalties slow the game down but I understand and can accept the need for this sort of thing.
Let's just not wind up with flag football.
I heard or read or watched something recently about the biggest threat to all contact Football. It wasn't cheating, touchdown dances, anthem issues, refs, salary cap, publicly funded stadiums, Tom Brady, or PEDs. It was obtaining insurance to cover the league and players. Workers comp and health insurance including coverage of spinal/brain injuries. I believe there is currently only one insurer willing to take on the risk for the NFL currently. So yes, something had to be done and the game has changed because of it.
February 1st, 2019 at 6:55:37 PM
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Quote: WizardIs it just me or does there not seem to be much enthusiasm for the Super Bowl this year?
I noticed the lack of enthusiasm too. But look who's playing. The RAMS. The Rams aren't as good as say Dallas Cowboys. A Superbowl that would draw even less enthusiasm than The Patriots VS The Rams is The Rams vs The Raiders. What a complete snoozefest that SB would be!
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
"Olive oil is processed but it only has one
ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D
I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;)
Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D
"For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
February 4th, 2019 at 6:08:02 PM
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Quote: RomesWhom just gives those kinds of odds away?!?!
How much? I guess if you're willing to leave the line open we can just discuss in person?
Let the record show Romes still wouldn’t make a wager with me even when I was offering such generous odds (1.2-for-1 on team of his choosing). ;-)
February 5th, 2019 at 2:40:13 PM
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Man I dont think I've lost money in all the superbowls I bet. I should be a tout now
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
February 5th, 2019 at 4:46:37 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleI’m making one bet this year. First half under. It was 28, and now it’s 27.5. I hope that half point doesn’t get me.
The half point didn’t get me.
Probably the easiest win I’ve ever had
February 5th, 2019 at 10:06:45 PM
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https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/1092983341232676866
Quote: Darren Rovell @darrenrovellSaints fan finds innovative way to avoid Super Bowl, dies four and half hours before kickoff (via @theadvocateno)
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
February 5th, 2019 at 10:34:46 PM
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Quote: WizardSince nobody else has started one, let this be the spot to discuss the 2019 Super Bowl, other than my own Prop Bet Challenge.
As an average, at the moment the Pats are a 2.5 point favorite and the over/under is 56.5. Like every year, here is my quick and dirty analysis, looking at the 2018 regular season. The following table shows the average points scored and allowed by both teams.
Team Pts scored per game Pts allowed per game Differential Pats 27.25 20.31 6.94 Rams 32.94 24.00 8.94
My predicted points for each team is the average of their historical points per game and points allowed by the opponent. Doing this we get:
Pats = 25.625
Rams = 26.625
Very interesting! By this method, the Rams should be a one-point favorite. However, it gets argued every year whether or not the AFC is the tougher division. In that past, some have given the AFC team three points just for that. Doing so, the line would favor the Pats by 2, which is very close to where we are. Not many games end in a margin of victory of 2, so the difference between 2 and 2.5 is very small.
This same method is quite accurate for predicting the total, by averaging all four numbers and multiplying by 2, in which case you get 52.25. That makes the under seem like a strong bet.
The problem with this approach is the implicit assumption that a team neither improves or gets worse during the course of a season.
The Patriots put an emphasis on getting better during the year so that they peak during the playoffs and Super Bowl. For several years now they play poorly during the first 3-4 games of the year. They have the luxury of being in the same division as the Jets, Bills and Dolphins -three teams that have been terrible for the past 20 years - so they always make the playoffs by being the division champions. So, they simply have no focus at the beginning of the year, and they experiment with players and schemes, etc.
Also, injuries can certainly effect the quality of team.
So averaging the performance of the teams over the year is what a mathematician might do, but its simply not what a top analyst would do.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
