Poll

3 votes (15.78%)
3 votes (15.78%)
1 vote (5.26%)
7 votes (36.84%)
2 votes (10.52%)
1 vote (5.26%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
5 votes (26.31%)
5 votes (26.31%)

19 members have voted

Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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January 27th, 2019 at 8:09:53 PM permalink
Since nobody else has started one, let this be the spot to discuss the 2019 Super Bowl, other than my own Prop Bet Challenge.

As an average, at the moment the Pats are a 2.5 point favorite and the over/under is 56.5. Like every year, here is my quick and dirty analysis, looking at the 2018 regular season. The following table shows the average points scored and allowed by both teams.

Team Pts scored per game Pts allowed per game Differential
Pats 27.25 20.31 6.94
Rams 32.94 24.00 8.94


My predicted points for each team is the average of their historical points per game and points allowed by the opponent. Doing this we get:

Pats = 25.625
Rams = 26.625

Very interesting! By this method, the Rams should be a one-point favorite. However, it gets argued every year whether or not the AFC is the tougher division. In that past, some have given the AFC team three points just for that. Doing so, the line would favor the Pats by 2, which is very close to where we are. Not many games end in a margin of victory of 2, so the difference between 2 and 2.5 is very small.

This same method is quite accurate for predicting the total, by averaging all four numbers and multiplying by 2, in which case you get 52.25. That makes the under seem like a strong bet.

As to the prop bets, here are two huge lists:



The question for the poll is who do you like against the spread and total?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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January 28th, 2019 at 12:21:26 AM permalink
Iím making one bet this year. First half under. It was 28, and now itís 27.5. I hope that half point doesnít get me.
Romes
Romes
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January 28th, 2019 at 1:05:05 AM permalink
I really don't know much about the NFL, and don't claim to. However, having done some fantasy football with friends for a few years, I'll now pretend to be an expert for about 2 minutes... I'm not a Patriots fan and don't want them to win (though I don't really care either way), but one thing I've always noticed is Tom Brady seems to play exceptionally better in the playoffs than he does during the regular season. Not only that, I feel like he had a particularly poorer than normal season this season, which could lead to some padded stats in the wrong direction. I may not like him, but I definitely don't ever break the rule "Don't bet money against Tom Brady."
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
RS
RS 
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Thanks for this post from:
miplet
January 28th, 2019 at 1:25:19 AM permalink
I got Rams +3.5 at -130 and u57 at -110. #Let'sGo
нет сговор. нет непроходимость. полный освобождение от ответственности.
Romes
Romes
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January 28th, 2019 at 1:26:43 AM permalink
Quote: RS

I got Rams +3.5 at -130 and u57 at -110. #Let'sGo

lol bet with a "friend" or some random early action before real lines were set?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Nathan
Nathan
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January 28th, 2019 at 2:35:53 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

I really don't know much about the NFL, and don't claim to. However, having done some fantasy football with friends for a few years, I'll now pretend to be an expert for about 2 minutes... I'm not a Patriots fan and don't want them to win (though I don't really care either way), but one thing I've always noticed is Tom Brady seems to play exceptionally better in the playoffs than he does during the regular season. Not only that, I feel like he had a particularly poorer than normal season this season, which could lead to some padded stats in the wrong direction. I may not like him, but I definitely don't ever break the rule "Don't bet money against Tom Brady."



To be fair, if you bet on Tom last year, you LOST although he did win 5 Super Bowls. IIRC, The Eagles won last year by a last minute/seconds big win.
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 28th, 2019 at 6:53:01 PM permalink
Is it just me or does there not seem to be much enthusiasm for the Super Bowl this year?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
RS
RS 
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January 28th, 2019 at 7:04:52 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

lol bet with a "friend" or some random early action before real lines were set?


Nah I bet it at a book once lines were set.

At least I have friends to bet with, unlike you, who didn't want to bet djatc vs field in the NFL contest. Sorry, I'm still salty about it. :( If I tried to bet either of these with you, you'd be asking for me to lay -250, probably.



Quote: Wizard

Is it just me or does there not seem to be much enthusiasm for the Super Bowl this year?


I am very much enthused.
нет сговор. нет непроходимость. полный освобождение от ответственности.
jackmagic777
jackmagic777
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January 28th, 2019 at 7:39:18 PM permalink
Wade Philips defense vs Josh McDaniels offense. Denver vs New England 2015 New England loses 30-24 in OT 2016 Jan Playoff New England loses 30 to 18. 2016 regular season New England wins 16-3/ Denver fumbles twice and 1 interception. Denver defense on field 33+ minutes.

24 pts 18 pts 16pts. Wade has 2 weeks to prepare Ram's defense Aqib Talib played for Broncos in 2015 & 2016. Is back healthy now.

Taking the Under plus Rams and points.

Good Luck Everybody..
Asswhoopermcdaddy
Asswhoopermcdaddy
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January 28th, 2019 at 7:49:32 PM permalink
I'm a Chief's fan so I think the Chiefs vs. the Pats was better than the Rams vs. the Pats. Also, the Chief's game was the 2nd most watched game in division history. With that said, Madden just predicted the Rams will win by 3pts.

I have to disagree with Madden. And while I agree with all the stats shown here and the spread, I think it under values the Pats. Showing the Pats as underdogs in any contest is ridiculous. Their winning record speaks for themselves. They're resourceful, sneaky, passionate, and the best at the 2 minute drills. They are a well honed machine. Hence, they are my second favorite.

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