Prop Bets for NFC/AFC Champ.

Make this quick since one of the games is about to start.

NB: All RTP's are just estimates.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints

First Score a touchdown (yes): -166.66... (RTP: 107%+ ), Result: Lost

Two-point conversion (No): -260 (RTP: 109%+)

NOR Saints highest scoring quarter / highest a tie: -170 (RTP: 104%+)

Both teams tie for highest scoring quarter: +675 (RTP: 110%+)

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New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs

First Score a touchdown (yes): -166.66... (RTP: 108%+)

Two-point conversion (No): -260 (RTP: 108%+)

Kansas City -3½ & game under 56½ (yes): +298 (RTP: 104%+)

Largest point lead in game (over 14.5): -115 (RTP: 103%+)

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I don't normally bet if the estimated RTP is lower than ~107%, but this time I did have about 1/3 of what I normally bet on props with an estimated RTP less than 107%.

Quote: ksdjdj

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints

First Score a touchdown (yes): -166.66... (RTP: 107%+ )

can't win them all
Saints 3
Rams 0

Saints better not underestimate the Rams D
sure they won earlier in the year vs the Rams
but today is a different Sunday

update
Saints 6
Rams 0

Saints trying to pull the 'Patriots method of scoring'
get to the red zone quickly but score only 3 points while there

Quote: 7craps

can't win them all
Saints 3
Rams 0

Saints better not underestimate the Rams D
sure they won earlier in the year vs the Rams
but today is a different Sunday

update
Saints 6
Rams 0

Saints trying to pull the 'Patriots method of scoring'
get to the red zone quickly but score only 3 points while there

Thanks for the post,

It doesn't feel good when the first bet loses.
I just need to win on the "2-point conversion" prop and the "NOR Saints highest scoring quarter / highest a tie" prop, to almost break-even for that game.

Quote: ksdjdj

It doesn't feel good when the first bet loses.

Good Luck in Game #2
Saints fans do not need good luck

Saints got ripped off by the no call interference end of reg.
I could call that one with my eyes closed

that rule needs changing.
Coach throws a flag and they review for a penalty when one is not called
sad a POOR REF CALL can change the outcome of a playoff game!

I’m betting on the AFC in the Superbowl.

That was a real rip-off. Can't say I've seen that many, but the defender didn't even look for the ball. Just grabbed the receiver and held on before the ball even got there with his back to the play. And the call almost certainly changes the result of the game.

Quote: beachbumbabs

That was a real rip-off. Can't say I've seen that many, but the defender didn't even look for the ball.

not to mention the helmet to helmet hit

Can't see why they refs did not call either one

maybe they were so far out of position they thought the ball was uncatchable

CHANGE THE RULES!

Just saw the highlight during the halftime report as I didn’t watch that game.

Why is it one week it looks like attempting to play defense in anyway whatsoever will draw a flag, but then the next week you can attempt to murder a receiver before the ball is anywhere near him with no flag?

Thanks everyone for the posts.

I was doing chores so I only watched about half the game, but out of all the bad/questionable calls that I saw that was easily the worst.

At the time, If the saints just scored a field goal on that drive they would have had well over a 65% chance*** of winning the game and very close to a certainty if they scored a TD.

Update (on January 21th, 2019 at about 230am EST):

chance***: I meant to write '...over a 95% chance...' above. I was at work and using my phone to write this post, sorry.

Quote: ksdjdj

Thanks everyone for the posts.

I was doing chores so I only watched about half the game, but out of all the bad/questionable calls that I saw that was easily the worst.

cant think of a worse call in an important game.
the regular season is one thing
but the refs need to make their "A" calls during the playoffs or have replay do it 4 them.

at least your 2nd game is doing better except the KC -3.5
still lots of football to play

Brady interception was horrible. he threw to a spot.
they should have run the ball in.
that would have been 21-0 at half.

shootout time!

Quote: 7craps

cant think of a worse call in an important game.
the regular season is one thing
but the refs need to make their "A" calls during the playoffs or have replay do it 4 them.

at least your 2nd game is doing better except the KC -3.5
still lots of football to play

Brady interception was horrible. he threw to a spot.
they should have run the ball in.
that would have been 21-0 at half.

shootout time!

Giants/49ers in the 2003 playoffs. Same situation, a no call PI where Giants WR was tackled.

Quote: unJon

Quote: 7craps

cant think of a worse call in an important game.
the regular season is one thing
but the refs need to make their "A" calls during the playoffs or have replay do it 4 them.

at least your 2nd game is doing better except the KC -3.5
still lots of football to play

Brady interception was horrible. he threw to a spot.
they should have run the ball in.
that would have been 21-0 at half.

shootout time!

Giants/49ers in the 2003 playoffs. Same situation, a no call PI where Giants WR was tackled.

Ohio state Miami 2003 national championship phantom pass interference was about as bad as this also and the stage couldn’t be bigger. Phantom pass interference not even close in overtime on 4th down and goal OH down 7, would have been game over national title Miami, Ohio St goes on to “win.” Pass has actually already passed through the hands and been dropped when contact was made.

now after watching the videos and seeing the REF 4 yards away from the play and he called incomplete pass
immediately

in this day and age of replay, the rules have to be changed

The Rams in the Super Bowl because of a blown call
disgusting
(I do not like either team)

IF all the Saints players now retire before next season, excellent!

that IS the worst call EVER in a NFL playoff game.
2 defensive fouls on the same play and not one called.

at least I did not watch the game. Just checked in for the scores on NFL.com

back to Game #2 for OP to win!

think I had the worst 2 game record on the conference championships. I shoulda slept through them :(

Quote: djatc

think I had the worst 2 game record on the conference championships. I shoulda slept through them :(

I had a four leg parlay: Rams +3.5 and under 56.5; Chiefs -3 and over 56.5. Was a fun sweat. Too bad it didn’t hit.

Quote: 7craps

Good Luck in Game #2
Saints fans do not need good luck

Saints got ripped off by the no call interference end of reg.
I could call that one with my eyes closed

that rule needs changing.
Coach throws a flag and they review for a penalty when one is not called
sad a POOR REF CALL can change the outcome of a playoff game!

There will come a time , probably soon , when certain penalties can be challenged. Either that or there will be a 7th ref up watching in a booth who can call down when he sees something missed. It’s too big of a play to have them get screwed up.

Quote: unJon

I had a four leg parlay: Rams +3.5 and under 56.5; Chiefs -3 and over 56.5. Was a fun sweat. Too bad it didn’t hit.

Always hate it when a parlay misses by just one leg, it feels about as bad as losing the total or spread by 1 point for a single bet, in my opinion.

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My Results:

LAR / NOS game:

First Score a touchdown (yes): ----------------------lost $1070
2 point conversion (no): ----------------------------- won $485
NOR Saints highest scoring quarter / highest a tie: won $210
Both teams tie for highest scoring quarter: ---------- lost $230

NEP / KCC game:

First Score a touchdown (yes):------------- won $648
Two-point conversion (No):----------------- won $480
Kansas City -3½ & game under 56½ (yes):- lost $140
Largest point lead in game (over 14.5): ----- lost $299


Overall result: +$84^^^

^^^: Too bad I didn't stick to my usual rules of 'not betting if my Est. RTP is lower than 107%', as I would have won $313 and my PoT would have been about + 6.4...%.

Profit on Turnover/PoT: + 1.477....%

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A bit off topic:

If this was a game of rugby league, and that 'game losing no-call' for the NOS was called correctly, then it would have been roughly equivalent to a 'professional foul'^*^ on the LAR.

'professional foul'^*^: is an automatic 10 minutes in the 'sin bin' for the offending player and the offending team plays with one man less on the field for 10 minutes as well.

I know it is a different game, like comparing 'apples and boomerangs'.
Two major differences in rugby league are: No forward passes and all the players play both offensive and defensive roles.

I don't think they should introduce a similar 'professional foul' rule in the NFL, but something needs to be done.
An extra ref watching the broadcast live and correcting obvious/blatant errors would be good, especially during the post-season (michael99000 mentioned a similar idea to this in the previous post).


Thanks everyone for your posts

Ps I am from Australia and enjoy watching a bit of rugby league,