ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 20th, 2019 at 12:05:10 PM permalink
Make this quick since one of the games is about to start.

NB: All RTP's are just estimates.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints

First Score a touchdown (yes): -166.66... (RTP: 107%+ ), Result: Lost

Two-point conversion (No): -260 (RTP: 109%+)

NOR Saints highest scoring quarter / highest a tie: -170 (RTP: 104%+)

Both teams tie for highest scoring quarter: +675 (RTP: 110%+)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs

First Score a touchdown (yes): -166.66... (RTP: 108%+)

Two-point conversion (No): -260 (RTP: 108%+)

Kansas City -3½ & game under 56½ (yes): +298 (RTP: 104%+)

Largest point lead in game (over 14.5): -115 (RTP: 103%+)

-------------------------------------
I don't normally bet if the estimated RTP is lower than ~107%, but this time I did have about 1/3 of what I normally bet on props with an estimated RTP less than 107%.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 20, 2019
7craps
7craps
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January 20th, 2019 at 12:19:39 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj


Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints

First Score a touchdown (yes): -166.66... (RTP: 107%+ )

can't win them all
Saints 3
Rams 0

Saints better not underestimate the Rams D
sure they won earlier in the year vs the Rams
but today is a different Sunday

update
Saints 6
Rams 0

Saints trying to pull the 'Patriots method of scoring'
get to the red zone quickly but score only 3 points while there
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 20th, 2019 at 12:34:09 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

can't win them all
Saints 3
Rams 0

Saints better not underestimate the Rams D
sure they won earlier in the year vs the Rams
but today is a different Sunday

update
Saints 6
Rams 0

Saints trying to pull the 'Patriots method of scoring'
get to the red zone quickly but score only 3 points while there



Thanks for the post,

It doesn't feel good when the first bet loses.
I just need to win on the "2-point conversion" prop and the "NOR Saints highest scoring quarter / highest a tie" prop, to almost break-even for that game.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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January 20th, 2019 at 3:45:42 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

It doesn't feel good when the first bet loses.

Good Luck in Game #2
Saints fans do not need good luck

Saints got ripped off by the no call interference end of reg.
I could call that one with my eyes closed

that rule needs changing.
Coach throws a flag and they review for a penalty when one is not called
sad a POOR REF CALL can change the outcome of a playoff game!
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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January 20th, 2019 at 3:51:18 PM permalink
Iím betting on the AFC in the Superbowl.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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Thanks for this post from:
7crapsMission146
January 20th, 2019 at 3:55:40 PM permalink
That was a real rip-off. Can't say I've seen that many, but the defender didn't even look for the ball. Just grabbed the receiver and held on before the ball even got there with his back to the play. And the call almost certainly changes the result of the game.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 20th, 2019 at 4:02:38 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

That was a real rip-off. Can't say I've seen that many, but the defender didn't even look for the ball.

not to mention the helmet to helmet hit

Can't see why they refs did not call either one

maybe they were so far out of position they thought the ball was uncatchable

CHANGE THE RULES!
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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January 20th, 2019 at 5:02:00 PM permalink
Just saw the highlight during the halftime report as I didnít watch that game.

Why is it one week it looks like attempting to play defense in anyway whatsoever will draw a flag, but then the next week you can attempt to murder a receiver before the ball is anywhere near him with no flag?
Vultures can't be choosers.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 20th, 2019 at 5:04:20 PM permalink
Thanks everyone for the posts.

I was doing chores so I only watched about half the game, but out of all the bad/questionable calls that I saw that was easily the worst.

At the time, If the saints just scored a field goal on that drive they would have had well over a 65% chance*** of winning the game and very close to a certainty if they scored a TD.

Update (on January 21th, 2019 at about 230am EST):

chance***: I meant to write '...over a 95% chance...' above. I was at work and using my phone to write this post, sorry.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 20, 2019
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 20th, 2019 at 5:18:20 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Thanks everyone for the posts.

I was doing chores so I only watched about half the game, but out of all the bad/questionable calls that I saw that was easily the worst.

cant think of a worse call in an important game.
the regular season is one thing
but the refs need to make their "A" calls during the playoffs or have replay do it 4 them.

at least your 2nd game is doing better except the KC -3.5
still lots of football to play

Brady interception was horrible. he threw to a spot.
they should have run the ball in.
that would have been 21-0 at half.

shootout time!
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

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