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ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 5th, 2020 at 3:24:41 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Odds/Recommendations:

Mega Millions/ MM ("no winner")
5dimes went: -1250 >>> -1300
Betonline went: -1000 >>> -1100 >>> -1200

Powerball /PB ("no winner"):
5dimes opened : -4000
Betonline opened: -8000

. I personally wouldn't bet on any of the current odds, because even with the best*** one, there is not enough of a "buffer" IMO
***: if you feel you must bet, then the Mega Millions with betonline @ -1200 is currently the best one (about 0.32% estimated EV, if you go by my ticket estimates).


Odds haven't moved since my last post (see above).

----
Reminder:
You can go to this link here >>> https://onedrive.live.com/?id=913E9944ACDF5E46%21116&cid=913E9944ACDF5E46 <<< if you want a copy of my "lotto spreadsheets" (Files were uploaded "free from viruses", but I recommend you always do a virus scan, after you download any files from the internet).

Note : They are the spreadsheets with "...lotto..." in the name
Note 2: I will probably post a "spreadsheet reminder" once per page.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 5th, 2020 at 4:10:52 PM permalink
Quote: vegas


This reminds me of say betting huge favourites in baseball. You maybe win 10 in a row and then one loss wipes out all the profits. Looks frustrating


The results have been a little bit frustrating for me, but I try to focus on the "tickets sold (my estimates vs actual ticket sold)" more than "whether I win or lose" ***.

***: Obviously I want to "win overall", too.


Quote: unJon

I agree. Every time you claw back to positive the ball hits. But it is plus EV so eventually it should work.


I think so too.

Even though you didn't ask, this is just a reminder of the formulas I am using to work out the "estimated" and "actual###" chances of "no jackpot winner".

General Formula = ("chance of NO jackpot winner" ) ^ "number of tickets sold"

Mega Millions = (302,575,349/302,575,350) ^ "number of tickets sold"

Powerball = (292,201,337/292,201,338) ^ "number of tickets sold"


###: The "actual" chance/EV figures I give are really just a " different kind of estimate" , because roughly 70% of the tickets sold are "machine picks" / "random picks" and for about 30% of the tickets "the numbers are chosen by the player".

Note: IMO, this means that the "chance of NO jackpot winner" should be slightly higher, when compared to 100% "random picks" .

Note 2: If 100% of the tickets were "random picks", then the "actual" chance/EV I post in the "result summary" would be correct.

----
Other:

When I don't find any value (eg when I don't have a bet) I still plan to put up an "Actual Tickets sold vs Estimated Tickets sold" post (from now on).

I don't use "likely range" figures anymore with my ticket estimates, instead I am generally aiming for my estimate to be within "+/- 1/15" of the actual tickets sold , at least for the "small to medium" jackpots.

Note: With the "bigger jackpots", I will say what the "+/-" figure is (when applicable).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 5, 2020
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 6th, 2020 at 12:17:28 AM permalink
"Tickets Sold" Summary (Mega Millions - 06/05/20)

Chance of "no jackpot winner" - Actual / Estimated : 92.87...% / 92.60...%
Tickets sold - Actual*** / Estimated : 22,367,837 / 23,230,000

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

----
Update (about 1235 am)

This is only the 2nd time the Powerball has reset to a $20 million jackpot (at least in "recent times") so I don't have much confidence in these "ticket estimates" (that is why I am providing two estimates)

"My rough estimate" : 8.7 million tickets

"Official Powerball Estimate" ^^^ : $21,315,279 (or about 10.66 million tickets)

^^^ https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20200606.pdf
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 6, 2020
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 6th, 2020 at 3:06:30 PM permalink
Bet summaries:

Other Bet(s) (Mega Millions Jackpot Propositions - 06/09/2020)

i)
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "3 Golden Mega Ball last digit is odd"
Odds: -105
Chance: 13/25 (52%)
EV: 1.52...%
"Bet Amount that I am aiming for": 0.80% ( "1/2 Kelly"^^^)
Actual Bet Amount: $210^^^
When will I have a bet: now

^^^: This time my actual bet is closer to "1/1.8 Kelly" (as long as you bet less or equal to "full kelly", then you have NOT "over bet your bank roll").


ii)
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "16 Golden Mega Ball last digit is not 6"
Odds: -990
Chance: 23/25 (92%)
EV: 1.29...%
"Bet Amount that I am aiming for": 6.4% ( "1/2 Kelly")
Actual Bet Amount: $1,514.70
When will I have a bet: now


Reminder: For the above bets, I have dropped terms like "Estimated Chance" and "Estimated EV, because the "estimated chance/ev should be the same as the actual chance/ev" (assuming all the "Golden Mega Balls are weighted fairly / the same").

Reminder 2: For these "Jackpot Propositions". ATM I can get "to win 200"... as my "maximum bet with 5dimes"

---
Odds/other:

Powerball /PB ("no winner"):
5dimes opened : -4000
Betonline opened: -8000

Mega Millions ("no winner"):
5dimes opened : -1165
Betonline opened: -1000


For the "Main Bet(s)", from now on I will put up my ticket estimate(s), estimated EV's etc, either:
1) As soon as I have had my bet or
2) On the day/night of the draw
(whichever comes first)

Note (update about 630 pm): If there is a good / high chance that I won't be having a bet (eg " if the odds are -EV at 5dimes") then I may put up my ticket estimates earlier then what I just said above
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 6, 2020
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 6th, 2020 at 6:11:19 PM permalink
Odds Update:

5dimes - Mega Millions Jackpot Propositions - 06/09/2020

"3 Golden Mega Ball last digit is odd " went: -105 >>> -115 (odds are -EV now)

"18*** Golden Mega Ball last digit is not 6" went: -990 >>> -1050 (it is still a "good bet", with an "actual EV" of +0.76...%)

*** : The prop number changed from "16" to "18", because they added this new set of props (see below)

"5 Golden Mega Ball last digit is 1-5" @ -170 <<< the house edge is 4.70...%, at the current odds
"6 Golden Mega Ball last digit is 6-0" @ +130 <<< the house edge is 8%, at the current odds



5dimes - Powerball Jackpot Propositions - 06/06/2020

They have also added a similar set of props for the Powerball too (see below)

"55 Powerball number last digit is 1-5" @ -160 <<< the house edge is 6.25 %, at the current odds
"56 Powerball number last digit is 6-0" @ +120 <<< the house edge is 6.92...%, at the current odds
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 6, 2020
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 6th, 2020 at 7:32:49 PM permalink
Important Update and Reminder:

In the past, the 5dimes interface (at least on some occasions) has given me the option to bet on "correlated plays" (if I had wanted to).

Note: If you attempt to do a "correlated play", most of the time you will get a warning that says something like this, "Selection ... is not permitted with another selection from the same sport in a Parlay. Please make a different selection".

If you are ever given the option to "bet a Parlay*** on the same market and/ or a related market", then I strongly recommend that you DO NOT have that Parlay***.

***: Includes all variations of "correlated or potentially correlated plays" (so things like "Parlay"," RIF". "If Bets", and "Action Reverse", within the same market)

One example of a "same or related market correlated parlay" would be (see below):

"54 Powerball number last digit is even @ -105" into "56 Powerball number last digit is 6-0 @ +120 "

If you manage to combine the two bets into a "parlay" ("all-up bet") then you would turn "two single bets that both have a -EV, into a "parlay with +EV" (see proof below)

Proof:
For the PB, there are 11 balls that the "last digit is 6-0" (6, 16, 26, 7,17, 8, 18, 9, 19, 10 and 20)

Of those, there are 7 balls that the "last digit is even" (6, 16, 26, 8, 18, 10 and 20)

There are 26 "Powerballs" in total.

"Correlated Parlay" RTP = chance x ("prop i" x "prop ii")

= 7/26 x (205/105) x ((120+100)/100) = 7/26 x "+329.5..." ($4.295...) = 1.1564...

RTP = 115.64...%
Therefore the EV = +15.64% (when you combine these two "-EV single bets" into a "parlay").


---
Even though I think I have written a post about the importance to "read and abide by all the T&Cs### at each sports-book before funding your account/having a bet", I thought this was a good time for a reminder.

Note: ### below is an example taken from >>> https://www.5dimes.eu/sb_rules.html << related to correlated plays (see under "General Rules"):

###: " At managerial discretion, correlated plays will be voided or split into separate straight wagers with the risk amount divided equally. Plays on correlated events include: multiple selections on the same team/player in the same event, multiple selections against the same team/player in the same event, or any other combination where one event directly affects further selections in the play, including Live In-Play wagers. Players will never be given the benefit if there is any doubt regarding intentions of correlated plays and winnings will be voided. No warnings will be given "

So in other words, even if you manage to get a " correlated play"/ "parlay" bet on, the best result that can happen is that your bet will be "voided" (graded as a push/"no-bet").

----
Spelling not checked thoroughly.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 6, 2020
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 6th, 2020 at 8:38:37 PM permalink
Recommendation(s):

Since there is a fairly high chance that I won't be betting on the next Mega Millions "no jackpot winner", here are my "Recommendation(s)" .

Estimated Tickets Sold ("early" / "non-hype"^^^): 23.7 million
Estimated Chance ("no winner"): 92.46...%
Current Odds (betonline): -1000
Estimated Ev: 1.71...%
"Full Kelly Bet": 17.12...% of "betting bank-roll"
"Recommended bet" (if you want to follow my "2/5 Kelly" method): ~6.85% of "betting bank-roll"

Current Odds (5dimes): -1165
Estimated Ev: 0.40...%

Note: Even though the "Estimated EV" for odds of -1165 is "slightly positive", I will not be having a bet with 5dimes at these odds (reason: "not enough buffer") .

^^^: Currently I don't know if there is any "hype in the news" for the jackpot ( it is over $400 million). But, if there is enough evidence of "hype in the news" closer to the draw, then I will probably use 24.6 million tickets as my "hype" ("late") estimate.

Note: If you know of any "hype news articles" please tell me about them, and I will then update my "ticket estimates", "Estimated Evs" etc, if I think it is necessary (after reading the "article(s)").

Note 2: I normally don't do an "early" or "late" estimate for the Mega Millions.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 7th, 2020 at 3:51:18 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

June 6th, 2020 at 12:17:28 AM
(snip)
Update (about 1235 am)

This is only the 2nd time the Powerball has reset to a $20 million jackpot (at least in "recent times") so I don't have much confidence in these "ticket estimates" (that is why I am providing two estimates)

"My rough estimate" : 8.7 million tickets

"Official Powerball Estimate" ^^^ : $21,315,279 (or about 10.66 million tickets)

^^^ https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20200606.pdf


Actual Tickets Sold***: 10,675,612

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Also, with my "rough estimate", I forgot that there is usually a "fairly significant bump" in ticket sales in the draw after the "jackpot is hit" (when compared to the 2nd, 3rd ... draw after the "jackpot is hit")

Note: In hind-sight I should have said "I don't have much confidence in "my rough estimate"..

Note 2: Here is one link were I put more confidence in the "Official Powerball Estimate" >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/18/#post751563 <<< than mine and the "Pre-Covid Wiz's Calc'" figure/estimate (so that is why I posted two estimates above, in the quoted post)


----
Ticket Estimate:

With the next PB draw, I think 8 to 9.5 million tickets will be sold. This is the "early" estimate, and I also think the "no winner" will likely be -EV (so that is why I am giving it now, instead of waiting until after 5d put up odds).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 7th, 2020 at 4:05:18 AM permalink
Odds Update***:

"18 Golden Mega Ball last digit is not 6" went: -990 >>> -1050 >>> -1100 (it is still a "+EV bet", with an "actual EV" of +0.3636...%)

***: I will do a more complete update later, in about 9-12 hours.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 7th, 2020 at 5:22:59 PM permalink
Odds:

Mega Millions ("no winner"):
5dimes went : -1165 >>> -1100 (estimated +EV)
Betonline opened: -1000 (estimated +EV)



5dimes - Mega Millions Jackpot Propositions - 06/09/2020
"18 Golden Mega Ball last digit is not 6" went: -990 >>> -1050 >>> -1100 (it is still a "+EV bet", with an "actual EV" of +0.3636...%)

Powerball ("no winner"):
5dimes opened : -3500 (estimated - EV)
Betonline opened: "no odds up ATM"

Note: Any other "lotto bet" odds not mentioned are currently "negative EV" (as far as I could see).

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