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ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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May 22nd, 2020 at 2:09:38 PM permalink
My Bet(s):

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 05/22/2020"
Odds: -1450
Estimated Chance ***: 94.22...%
Estimated EV: 0.72...%
Bet Amount: 3.5% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 18 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 16 and 19 million tickets.

----
"What if" scenario (If i could bet at betonline, this is what I would have at their current odds).

Book: www.betonline.ag
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 05/22/2020" (see: "Will Mega Millions Jackpot be won?" market)
Odds: -1200
Estimated Chance ***: 94.22...%
Estimated EV: 2.07...%
Bet Amount: 8.3% (about 1/3 Kelly)

Note: As I have to get ready for work, this will be my last update for tonights' Mega Millions draw, if the odds change between now and when you want to have a bet, then I recommend you use one of the "...lotto_bet_calc..." spreadsheets I have uploaded to help work out the bet amounts you should have.

----
Also, because this spreadsheet is a lot "faster than the old way I was working out these bets" (using a calculator, going to the lottery website to get the "chance of the jackpot being won figures" ...), I decided to put up a "what if,,,," bet summary (for anyone that wants to bet with betonline, at a
similar "betting style" to how I would do it).

Lastly, I just woke up, so I haven't really checked the words thoroughly, but all the math looks good to me.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 22, 2020
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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May 23rd, 2020 at 12:46:36 AM permalink
Result summary (after the Mega Millions draw on the 05/22/20) :

Opening Bal: 25,438
Finishing Bal: 25,500
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (500)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 206
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (706)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet Amount ($): 899
Won ($): 62
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.24...%
Odds Taken: -1450
Actual EV: 0.74...%
Tickets Sold***: 17,922,437

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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May 23rd, 2020 at 3:49:34 AM permalink
"Bet Recommendation":

I think there is a decent "no" bet coming up for the Mega Millions (details below):

Book (link): https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/lottery
Date: Tuesday, May 26, 2020
Market / Prop: "Will Mega Millions Jackpot be won?" / "550106 No"
Odds: -900
Estimated Chance ***: 93.91...%
Estimated EV: 4.34...%
"Recommended Bet Amount": 13% (about 1/3 Kelly)
Did I have a bet / when would I have a bet (if I could): no / now

***: I estimate 19 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 17 and 20 million tickets.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 23, 2020
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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May 23rd, 2020 at 2:33:28 PM permalink
Odds Info:

PB ("No Winner"):
5dimes went: -3000 >>> -2750 >>> -2150 (current odds)
Betonline hasn't moved from: -2500

MM ("No Winner"):
5dimes: NA (At the moment)
Betonline went: -900 >>> -1000^^^ (current odds)

^^^ : At these odds it still has about a 3.3% estimated EV, and I would bet about 11% of my "bank-roll" (if I could bet there).

Important: If you already managed to get your "whole bet" on at the -900, then don't bet again, if for example you only got "half your bet" on at -900, then you should probably have 5.5% of your "bank-roll" at -1000.

---
PB ticket estimates and "suggestion"... :

"Late*** Estimate": I estimate 12 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 11.1 and 12.4 million tickets.

***: My "Early Estimate" was 11.3 million tickets.

Suggestion: At the current odds of -2150, there is about a 0.44% estimated EV, I will NOT be having a bet at these odds, but if you want to have a bet then I recommend about 3.2% of your "bank-roll" (about "1/3 Kelly" )
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 77
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May 23rd, 2020 at 6:00:18 PM permalink
My Bet(s):

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 05/23/2020"
Odds: -1900
Estimated Chance ***: 95.97...%
Estimated EV: 1.02...%
Bet Amount: 6.5% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

*** ("late estimate"): I estimate 12 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 11.1 and 12.4 million tickets.

----
Odds and "Spreadsheet reminder":

Betonline:
(1) is currently -2500 for the "Powerball no winner" (negative est EV at those odds)
(2) is currently -1000 for the "Mega Millions no winner" (+EV, see previous post above, for my bet "recommendations/suggestions")

5dimes:
(1) is currently -1900 for the ""Powerball no winner" (odds went > -3000 > -2750 > -2150 > -1900).
(2) I don't recommend you bet on this prop at the current odds, but the "53 Powerball number last digit is odd" went from -105 to +100 (so it currently has 0% EV).
(3) no Mega Millions "Jackpot winner" odds available at the moment.


Just a reminder, you can go to this link here >>> https://onedrive.live.com/?id=913E9944ACDF5E46%21116&cid=913E9944ACDF5E46 <<< if you want a copy of my "lotto spreadsheets" (I recommend you always do a virus scan, after you download any files from the internet).

Note: I will probably post a "spreadsheet reminder" once per page.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 23, 2020
morelcalvet
morelcalvet
Joined: Apr 13, 2020
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May 24th, 2020 at 12:23:50 PM permalink
I choose here: [Attempted spam link redacted]
Many good options, and most importantly - proven options!
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on May 24, 2020
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 77
  • Posts: 814
May 24th, 2020 at 6:49:40 PM permalink
Result summary (after the Powerball draw on the 05/23/20) :

Opening Bal: 25,500
Finishing Bal: 25,588
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (412)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 206
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (618)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet Amount ($): 1,672
Won ($): 88
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.94...%
Odds Taken: -1900
Actual EV: 0.99...%
Tickets Sold***: 12,095,670

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 77
  • Posts: 814
May 26th, 2020 at 2:14:24 PM permalink
My Bet(s):

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 05/26/2020"
Odds: -1200
Estimated Chance ***: 93.91...%
Estimated EV: 1.73...%
Bet Amount: 6.9% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 19 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 17 and 20 million tickets.



Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 05/27/20"
Odds: -1800
Estimated Chance ^^^: 96.30...%
Estimated EV: 1.65...%
Bet Amount: 9.9% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

^^^ ("Early" Estimate): I estimate 11 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 10.2 and 11 million tickets.

----
Odds Info and Reminder:

Mega Millions ("No Winner")
5dimes went: -1300 >>> -1200 (current odds)
Betonline went: -900 >>> -1000 >>> -1200 (current odds)

Powerball ("No Winner")
5dimes opened: -1800
Betonline hasn't moved from: -3300 (odds have been available for at least a day longer than 5dimes).

Reminder:
If you are wondering why I seem to generally have a "narrower range" for the Powerball when compared to the Mega Millions estimated tickets, it is just because I have more "sources of information" to use, when working out the Powerball estimates. Also, when the jackpots get "pretty big" ~$400 million (or higher), the accuracy of the estimates goes down a noticeable amount (again, generally speaking).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 77
  • Posts: 814
May 26th, 2020 at 11:00:18 PM permalink
Result summary (after the Mega Millions draw on the 05/26/20) :

Opening Bal: 25,588
Finishing Bal: 25,736
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (264)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 206
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (470)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet Amount ($): 1,776
Won ($): 148
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.10...%
Odds Taken: -1200
Actual EV: 1.95...%
Tickets Sold***: 18,372,704

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
May 27th, 2020 at 7:11:44 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Result summary (after the Mega Millions draw on the 05/26/20) :

Opening Bal: 25,588
Finishing Bal: 25,736
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (264)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 206
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (470)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet Amount ($): 1,776
Won ($): 148
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.10...%
Odds Taken: -1200
Actual EV: 1.95...%
Tickets Sold***: 18,372,704

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm



First off, love this thread. One request is that when you post these results, if itís not too much trouble I would love to see the comparison of actual EV to your estimated EV and actual tickets sold to your estimated tickets sold. And then the actual Kelly bet you made (vs the 1/3 Kelly you were aiming for).

Good luck getting positive!
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

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