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Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1274
  • Posts: 20960
February 13th, 2020 at 6:45:32 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Wiz, I hope you didn't notice the odds change to -1700 for the Powerball, as that would be a loss of about $22k if managed to get the whole bet on @ "full kelly".



Yes, I was doing math on the drawing last night and realized a bet with a $100,000 bankroll and full Kelly would have been HUGE. While doing the math, the drawing happened and I got locked out of my bet.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 76
  • Posts: 624
February 14th, 2020 at 12:08:42 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Yes, I was doing math on the drawing last night and realized a bet with a $100,000 bankroll and full Kelly would have been HUGE. While doing the math, the drawing happened and I got locked out of my bet.


It still would have been a "good bet", but no matter how much of a "cold calculating machine" a person is, they would have to feel some negative emotion of losing that much on their first "big bet".

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Odds:

MM and PB are both -3500 for the no jackpot winner

Note: I probably won't write another post about the odds until there is a potential for +EV.

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