Game: Powerball

Book: www.5dimes.eu

Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/25/2020"

Odds: -600

Estimated Chance ^^^: 89.01...% (based on am estimate of 34 million tickets)

Estimated EV: about 3.85%

Bet Amount (%): ~ 7.7% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)

When will I have a bet: now

^^^: My estimated range is between 28.4 and 34.4 million tickets.

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Other:

PB went: -700 > -650 > -600

MM has opened at -1375

I will "wait and see" what the odds are tomorrow, before I have a bet on the MM.

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For the Powerball draw on the 01/25/20, I put 2,262 down to win 377.

Opening Bal: 29,343

Finishing Bal: 29,720

P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 3,720

Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 89.51...%

Odds Taken: -600

Actual EV: +4.43...%

Tickets Sold***: 32,362,367

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Extra info:

This isn't important for my bets now^^^, but I just noticed that for some reason the Jackpot for the next Powerball draw went up by about $21 million, yet the difference### between the Jackpot on the 01/22 and the 01/25 was $30 million.

^^^: This probably explains why my estimates were out a bit more than I liked when I was using my "old formula" (before the "Wiz's calculator" was available).

###: There seem to be similar differences in the Mega Millions Jackpots as well.

Also, before the "Wiz's Calc", I had two ways of getting an "estimate" for the MM and three ways for the PB, and one way used the "Jackpot size difference" to estimate the ticket sales, so I am lucky that I haven't bet into any neg EV (back then).

Game: Mega Millions

Book: www.5dimes.eu

Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/28/2020"

Odds: -1333

Estimated Chance ^^^: ~95.85%

Estimated EV: about 3.04%

Bet Amount (%): ~ 13.5% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)

When will I have a bet: now

^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 95.85% (based on about 12.82 "Tickets sold (in millions)")

Bet Summary (2):

Game: Powerball

Book: www.5dimes.eu

Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/29/2020"

Odds: -500

Estimated Chance: 88.10...% (based on an estimate*** of 37 million tickets sold)

Estimated EV: 5.72...%

Bet Amount (%): ~ 9.5% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)

When will I have a bet: now

***: My "early" estimated range is between 30 and 37 million tickets.

Note: the odds could get even bigger before the draw(s) (like they have been recently, for the last few draws) but I think the estimated EV is "big enough" to bet now.

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Odds Movements:

MM: went -1375 > -1333

PB: went -550 > -500

Is the physical limit of the system so high that it isn't an issue for the forecast of the number of tickets sold?

Quote:AyecarumbaSince lottery ticket purchases are a physical system (exchange of money, printing of tickets) there must be a limit to the number of separate tickets that can be produced in the three or four days prior to each draw. There must be a fall off in the number of tickets sold as the system approaches this limit due to inefficiencies in the system (retail hours of operation, lack of ticket paper, etc.).

Is the physical limit of the system so high that it isn't an issue for the forecast of the number of tickets sold?

Yes, you are most likely correct, but I don't know what the limit is.

I think the figures below are the largest number of tickets sold for each game (at least since 2012).

On 01/13/16, the Powerball### sold 635,103,137 tickets and

on 03/30/12, Mega Millions*** sold 651,915,940 tickets.

###: http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison16.htm

***: http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison12.htm

Based on the above tickets sold figures, the 2016 system for the Powerball could handle at least 110.26 thousand tickets per minute, and the 2012 system for the Mega Millions could handle at least 150.90 thousand tickets per minute (If my math is correct?).

Note: For working out the above "tickets per minute", I think the PB had a 4 day gap, and the MM had a 3 day gap between draws. (?)

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Extra:

In Australian lotteries, you can buy things called "quick picks", I think you have to buy at least 6 tickets at a time when you do this (but I don't play them often, so I am not sure)

Also, the "quick picks" are printed on "one long ticket" in Australia.

Lastly, I don't know if the USA "Machine /Quick Pick" tickets are printed like they are in Australia or not.

Quote:AyecarumbaSince lottery ticket purchases are a physical system (exchange of money, printing of tickets) there must be a limit to the number of separate tickets that can be produced in the three or four days prior to each draw. There must be a fall off in the number of tickets sold as the system approaches this limit due to inefficiencies in the system (retail hours of operation, lack of ticket paper, etc.).

Is the physical limit of the system so high that it isn't an issue for the forecast of the number of tickets sold?

I don't play the lottery. But I am pretty sure you can buy Powerball tickets online in most states (like many lottery games) and you just type out your numbers into each transaction (which would make one player mass buying easier)?

There may be different rules in different states as far as purchasing various lottery tickets online.

For example in GA you can buy most major lottery tickets online and they automatically email you at the drawing for which tickets/numbers win:

https://www.galottery.com/en-us/content/how-it-works.html

I am sure most states have similar lottery infrastructure rendering physical limitations far less meaningful than in past years. I don't know the stats offhand, but some news thing I saw recently said in many areas, online and electronic tickets vastly outweigh physical sales. From an anecdotal perspective, most people I see in lottery lines at convenience stores generally are older (may not be tech savy) or appear that they may not have regular online accsess.

Lottery: Mega Millions

Jackpot: 141M

Estimated sales: 12.82M

Probability of winner: 4.15%

Probability no winner: 95.85%

Fair line no winner: -2309

5 Dimes line: -1333

Player advantage: 3.04%

Wiz bet: $333.25 to win $25

Date: Jan 29

Lottery: PowerBall

Jackpot: 394M

Estimated sales: 41.02M

Probability of winner: 14.29%

Probability no winner: 85.71%

Fair line no winner: -600

5 Dimes line: -500

Player advantage: 2.85%

Wiz bet: $600 to win $120

MM: went -1375 > -1333 > -1275

PB: went -550 > -500 > -475

I think you should bet the "No" for the MM now, if you haven't bet.

For the PB, I would lock in the -475 for the "No", even though the odds could get bigger (mainly because it is a big enough estimated EV).

Also, I hope the PB gets to a big enough Jackpot soon, so that I can show you what happens when all the "sharps" come to "smash the odds".

Lastly, the "No winner" odds trend(s) for the "low odds/low EV" draws are hard to work out, because the trends seem to be always changing ( for the last few rolls it seems to be best to wait until the day of the draw).

Opening Bal: 29,720

Finishing Bal: 30,020

P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 4,020

Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.84...%

Odds Taken: -1333

Actual EV: +3.03...%

Tickets Sold***: 12,832,684

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

ks, you list a 'finishing balance' of over $30k..... no worries that if you ever want access to that money someone will say you broke some sort of rule and you won't get it?