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ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 25th, 2020 at 11:54:10 AM permalink
Bet Summary:

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/25/2020"
Odds: -600
Estimated Chance ^^^: 89.01...% (based on am estimate of 34 million tickets)
Estimated EV: about 3.85%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 7.7% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

^^^: My estimated range is between 28.4 and 34.4 million tickets.

---
Other:

PB went: -700 > -650 > -600
MM has opened at -1375

I will "wait and see" what the odds are tomorrow, before I have a bet on the MM.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 25th, 2020 at 10:41:10 PM permalink
Correction, for the link >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/23/#post755464 <<< it should say "... Mega Millions draw on the 01/24/20 ... ", in the first sentence.

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For the Powerball draw on the 01/25/20, I put 2,262 down to win 377.

Opening Bal: 29,343
Finishing Bal: 29,720
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 3,720
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 89.51...%
Odds Taken: -600
Actual EV: +4.43...%
Tickets Sold***: 32,362,367

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

----
Extra info:

This isn't important for my bets now^^^, but I just noticed that for some reason the Jackpot for the next Powerball draw went up by about $21 million, yet the difference### between the Jackpot on the 01/22 and the 01/25 was $30 million.

^^^: This probably explains why my estimates were out a bit more than I liked when I was using my "old formula" (before the "Wiz's calculator" was available).

###: There seem to be similar differences in the Mega Millions Jackpots as well.

Also, before the "Wiz's Calc", I had two ways of getting an "estimate" for the MM and three ways for the PB, and one way used the "Jackpot size difference" to estimate the ticket sales, so I am lucky that I haven't bet into any neg EV (back then).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 25, 2020
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 27th, 2020 at 12:41:46 PM permalink
Bet Summary (1):

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/28/2020"
Odds: -1333
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~95.85%
Estimated EV: about 3.04%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 13.5% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 95.85% (based on about 12.82 "Tickets sold (in millions)")

Bet Summary (2):

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/29/2020"
Odds: -500
Estimated Chance: 88.10...% (based on an estimate*** of 37 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: 5.72...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 9.5% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

***: My "early" estimated range is between 30 and 37 million tickets.

Note: the odds could get even bigger before the draw(s) (like they have been recently, for the last few draws) but I think the estimated EV is "big enough" to bet now.

----
Odds Movements:
MM: went -1375 > -1333
PB: went -550 > -500
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 27, 2020
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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January 27th, 2020 at 12:59:35 PM permalink
Since lottery ticket purchases are a physical system (exchange of money, printing of tickets) there must be a limit to the number of separate tickets that can be produced in the three or four days prior to each draw. There must be a fall off in the number of tickets sold as the system approaches this limit due to inefficiencies in the system (retail hours of operation, lack of ticket paper, etc.).

Is the physical limit of the system so high that it isn't an issue for the forecast of the number of tickets sold?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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Ayecarumba
January 27th, 2020 at 1:54:25 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Since lottery ticket purchases are a physical system (exchange of money, printing of tickets) there must be a limit to the number of separate tickets that can be produced in the three or four days prior to each draw. There must be a fall off in the number of tickets sold as the system approaches this limit due to inefficiencies in the system (retail hours of operation, lack of ticket paper, etc.).

Is the physical limit of the system so high that it isn't an issue for the forecast of the number of tickets sold?


Yes, you are most likely correct, but I don't know what the limit is.
I think the figures below are the largest number of tickets sold for each game (at least since 2012).

On 01/13/16, the Powerball### sold 635,103,137 tickets and
on 03/30/12, Mega Millions*** sold 651,915,940 tickets.

###: http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison16.htm
***: http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison12.htm

Based on the above tickets sold figures, the 2016 system for the Powerball could handle at least 110.26 thousand tickets per minute, and the 2012 system for the Mega Millions could handle at least 150.90 thousand tickets per minute (If my math is correct?).

Note: For working out the above "tickets per minute", I think the PB had a 4 day gap, and the MM had a 3 day gap between draws. (?)

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Extra:

In Australian lotteries, you can buy things called "quick picks", I think you have to buy at least 6 tickets at a time when you do this (but I don't play them often, so I am not sure)
Also, the "quick picks" are printed on "one long ticket" in Australia.
Lastly, I don't know if the USA "Machine /Quick Pick" tickets are printed like they are in Australia or not.
Gandler
Gandler
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ksdjdjAyecarumba
January 27th, 2020 at 2:06:27 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Since lottery ticket purchases are a physical system (exchange of money, printing of tickets) there must be a limit to the number of separate tickets that can be produced in the three or four days prior to each draw. There must be a fall off in the number of tickets sold as the system approaches this limit due to inefficiencies in the system (retail hours of operation, lack of ticket paper, etc.).

Is the physical limit of the system so high that it isn't an issue for the forecast of the number of tickets sold?




I don't play the lottery. But I am pretty sure you can buy Powerball tickets online in most states (like many lottery games) and you just type out your numbers into each transaction (which would make one player mass buying easier)?

There may be different rules in different states as far as purchasing various lottery tickets online.

For example in GA you can buy most major lottery tickets online and they automatically email you at the drawing for which tickets/numbers win:

https://www.galottery.com/en-us/content/how-it-works.html


I am sure most states have similar lottery infrastructure rendering physical limitations far less meaningful than in past years. I don't know the stats offhand, but some news thing I saw recently said in many areas, online and electronic tickets vastly outweigh physical sales. From an anecdotal perspective, most people I see in lottery lines at convenience stores generally are older (may not be tech savy) or appear that they may not have regular online accsess.
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 27th, 2020 at 3:26:12 PM permalink
Date: Jan 28
Lottery: Mega Millions
Jackpot: 141M
Estimated sales: 12.82M
Probability of winner: 4.15%
Probability no winner: 95.85%
Fair line no winner: -2309
5 Dimes line: -1333
Player advantage: 3.04%
Wiz bet: $333.25 to win $25

Date: Jan 29
Lottery: PowerBall
Jackpot: 394M
Estimated sales: 41.02M
Probability of winner: 14.29%
Probability no winner: 85.71%
Fair line no winner: -600
5 Dimes line: -500
Player advantage: 2.85%
Wiz bet: $600 to win $120

It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 28th, 2020 at 1:06:18 PM permalink
Odds Movements...:
MM: went -1375 > -1333 > -1275
PB: went -550 > -500 > -475

I think you should bet the "No" for the MM now, if you haven't bet.
For the PB, I would lock in the -475 for the "No", even though the odds could get bigger (mainly because it is a big enough estimated EV).

Also, I hope the PB gets to a big enough Jackpot soon, so that I can show you what happens when all the "sharps" come to "smash the odds".

Lastly, the "No winner" odds trend(s) for the "low odds/low EV" draws are hard to work out, because the trends seem to be always changing ( for the last few rolls it seems to be best to wait until the day of the draw).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 28th, 2020 at 11:15:29 PM permalink
For the Mega Millions draw on the 01/28/20, I put 3,999 down to win 300.

Opening Bal: 29,720
Finishing Bal: 30,020
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 4,020
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.84...%
Odds Taken: -1333
Actual EV: +3.03...%
Tickets Sold***: 12,832,684

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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January 29th, 2020 at 7:19:16 AM permalink
ks, and maybe Wiz, ..... assume you have a gambling bankroll of $10,000,000...... what are the largest bets you could get down on these 'no lottery winner' bets? Could I bet $20k on one of them?

ks, you list a 'finishing balance' of over $30k..... no worries that if you ever want access to that money someone will say you broke some sort of rule and you won't get it?

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