2018 WoV Picks game (discussion thread)
I certainly wouldn't agree to not take the easy way to a placement if it were said unto me. Especially since you could easily be betrayed. I'm thinking about going completely random the last week.Quote: terapinedA big thanks to mission and Edcollins.
I see we have a 3 way tie for average.
Kuna allready has a bye so has to pick.
EdCollins and myself have not used a bye
We could both sit out and win but not much at stake for a split.
If EdCollins agrees to not use a bye, I wont either.
More fun and kind of rediculous to split the small average prize.
Game EdCollins ?
:-)
Quote: terapinedA big thanks to mission and Edcollins.
I see we have a 3 way tie for average.
Kuna allready has a bye so has to pick.
EdCollins and myself have not used a bye
We could both sit out and win but not much at stake for a split.
If EdCollins agrees to not use a bye, I wont either.
More fun and kind of rediculous to split the small average prize.
Game EdCollins ?
:-)
One other thing to consider , there are 15 other people all within either 6 games over or 6 games under exactly 50%. Any of those 15 have a chance to land on it.
That's tempting... but I've saved my Skip Week all season just for this purpose... to be able to use it advantageously during the Final Week it this exact situation arose. I've been attempting to get towards .500 these past few weeks and I carefully made my picks this past week with the hope of finishing 1-4. I was successful!Quote: terapinedA big thanks to mission and Edcollins.
I see we have a 3 way tie for average.
Kuna allready has a bye so has to pick.
EdCollins and myself have not used a bye
We could both sit out and win but not much at stake for a split.
If EdCollins agrees to not use a bye, I wont either.
More fun and kind of rediculous to split the small average prize.
Game EdCollins ?
:-)
So no, but thanks. My plan is to take the small but guaranteed prize, which I do expect to be split at least a few ways.
Quote: EdCollinsThat's tempting... but I've saved my Skip Week all season just for this purpose... to be able to use it advantageously during the Final Week it this exact situation arose. I've been attempting to get towards .500 these past few weeks and I carefully made my picks this past week with the hope of finishing 1-4. I was successful!
So no, but thanks. My plan is to take the small but guaranteed prize, which I do expect to be split at least a few ways.
I like you.
Quote: onenickelmiracleI might have some random shot at mirroring the Cleveland Browns if they win, but I would rather have them lose so Mike Tomlin is watching the playoffs with his bug eyes at home. Should have come to terms with Bell.
Yeah, but NFL teams have salary caps and I’m pretty sure Bell wants triple the entire team’s cap.
Quote: onenickelmiracleI might have some random shot at mirroring the Cleveland Browns if they win, but I would rather have them lose so Mike Tomlin is watching the playoffs with his bug eyes at home. Should have come to terms with Bell.
bell is not the reason they are not going to make the playoffs. This is a very strong team even without him. Coaching and refs are going to be the reason they don't make it. I am almost 100% sure that I could do a better job managing the on field decisions than tomlin.
The Week 17 Lines are as follows:
Cowboys (+6) @ Giants (-6) O/U 41.5
Raiders (+13.5) @ Chiefs (-13.5) O/U 52.5
Panthers (+7.5) @ Saints (-7.5) O/U 43.5
Jets (+13.5) @ Patriots (-13.5) O/U 44.5
Eagles (-6.5) @ Redskins (+6.5) O/U 42
Lions (+8) @ Packers (-8) O/U 44.5
Jaguars (+6.5) @ Texans (-6.5) O/U 40
Browns (+5.5) @ Ravens (-5.5) O/U 41
Falcons (-1) @ Buccaneers (+1) O/U 51
Dolphins (+4.5) @ Bills (-4.5) O/U 39.5
Colts (-3.5) @ Titans (+3.5) O/U 43
Bengals (+14.5) @ Steelers (-14.5) O/U 45.5
Bears (+4.5) @ Vikings (-4.5) O/U 40.5
Chargers (-6.5) @ Broncos (+6.5) O/U 41.5
Cardinals (+13.5) @ Seahawks (-13.5) O/U 38.5
49ers (+10) @ Rams (-10) O/U 48.5
DJ is obviously the favorite to win this thing but it isn't a lock. He needs to go 3-2 to shut us all out. Prozema and fourfive have a slight and I mean slight chance to win but a lot of stuff has to happen. Basically the top 3 would need to miss everything.
If DJ goes:
3-2 he wins.
2-3 I can tie him with a 6-0
1-4 I can tie him with a 5-1 and win with a 6-0, JZ could win with a 6-0 as long as I don't go 6-0
0-5 I can win with a 4-2 or better, JZ could win with a 5-1 or better but would need to beat me by 1 game to over come the small margin that I am ahead.
for 2nd and 3rd JZ and I can be caught by prozema and fourfive but we would need to go 2-4 or worse and also go 6-0.
If JZ and I hang on to 2nd and 3rd then it will come down to whomever has the 1 game advantage over the other. If we tie this week then I believe I would win but didn't do the math to make sure.
Quote: GWAEThank you Mission for running this. Thanks to Ed for the help with making scoring easier, and thanks to the others that added money to the prize poll.
DJ is obviously the favorite to win this thing but it isn't a lock. He needs to go 3-2 to shut us all out. Prozema and fourfive have a slight and I mean slight chance to win but a lot of stuff has to happen. Basically the top 3 would need to miss everything.
If DJ goes:
3-2 he wins.
2-3 I can tie him with a 6-0
1-4 I can tie him with a 5-1 and win with a 6-0, JZ could win with a 6-0 as long as I don't go 6-0
0-5 I can win with a 4-2 or better, JZ could win with a 5-1 or better but would need to beat me by 1 game to over come the small margin that I am ahead.
for 2nd and 3rd JZ and I can be caught by prozema and fourfive but we would need to go 2-4 or worse and also go 6-0.
If JZ and I hang on to 2nd and 3rd then it will come down to whomever has the 1 game advantage over the other. If we tie this week then I believe I would win but didn't do the math to make sure.
better check those numbers again chief
Quote: djatcbetter check those numbers again chief
Today I learned....
0.61538461538 = 0.61458333333
0.60439560439 = 0.60416666666
0.5934065934 < 0.59375
Quote: RSToday I learned....
0.61538461538 = 0.61458333333
0.60439560439 = 0.60416666666
0.5934065934 < 0.59375
haha I just rounded to tenths. You shouldn't have pointed it out. Would have been fun for DJ to go 1-4 and me 5-1. I definitely would have come on here throwing some shade.
Quote: GWAEThank you Mission for running this. Thanks to Ed for the help with making scoring easier, and thanks to the others that added money to the prize poll.
DJ is obviously the favorite to win this thing but it isn't a lock. He needs to go 3-2 to shut us all out. Prozema and fourfive have a slight and I mean slight chance to win but a lot of stuff has to happen. Basically the top 3 would need to miss everything.
for 2nd and 3rd JZ and I can be caught by prozema and fourfive but we would need to go 2-4 or worse and also go 6-0.
If JZ and I hang on to 2nd and 3rd then it will come down to whomever has the 1 game advantage over the other. If we tie this week then I believe I would win but didn't do the math to make sure.
so yeah, I apparently didn't realize the standings go to the hundredth. Here are the correct ways to win. Sorry JZ if I gave you hope, both of our chances just got worse, by mare hundredths.
If DJ goes:
2-3 he wins
1-4 I can win with a 6-0, JZ could win with a 6-0 as long as I don't go 6-0
0-5 I can win with a 4-2 or better, JZ could win with a 5-1 or better but would need to beat me by 1 game to over come the small margin that I am ahead.
Quote: JohnzimboNo worries GWAE, I am going 6-0 and then let the chips fall where they may :)
That was my plan!
I think a fair number would probably be about 4.Quote: unJonWhat’s the over/under on number of people that split the most average prize?
This assumes Terapined takes his Skip Week today. (I did.)
If the over/under was 3 I suspect I would take the over.
If the over/under was 5 I suspect I would take the under.
(Maybe I'm off by one. Maybe a fairer number would be 5.)
Lots of people have a shot at a final result of .500... but the odds of doing so are against each person individually. It's only because there are so many that have a crack at it, that you should expect a couple (of others) to hit it.
Because I don't know the math on how to compute it, I was going to code a simulation earlier this week, to determine a fair over/under number! Alas, I didn't get around to it.
The Week 17 Picks are as follows:
JW17:
Broncos +6.5 confidence
Cardinals +13.5
49ers +10
Raiders +13.5
Brownss +5.5
FourFiveFace:
Raiders +13.5
Jets +13.5-Confidence
Bengals +14.5
Cardinals +13.5
49ers +10
SOOPOO:
Raiders +13.5 confidence
Jets +13.5
Bengals +14.5
49ers +10
Broncos +6.5
GenWyzgy:
Chiefs OVER 52.5
Patriots OVER 44.5
Packers -8
Browns +5.5
Bears +4.5
Sparty10k:
Falcons -1
Ravens -5.5
Titans +3.5
Bears +4.5
49ers under 48.5
JohnnyQ:
Raiders (+13.5)
Jets (+13.5)
Ravens (-5.5)
Titans (+3.5)
Cardinals (+13.5)
unJon:
Jets OVER 44.5
Titans +3.5
Vikings -4.5-confidence
Eagles -7
Texans -6.5
Prozema:
Jets over 44.5
Texans -6.5
Titans +3.5 Confidence
Titans over 43
Chargers -6.5
MaxPen:
Chiefs -13.5
Jets OVER 44.5 - CONFIDENCE
Rams -10
Ravens -5.5
Colts OVER 43
Ayecarumba
Raiders +13.5 - Confidence
Jets -Under 44.5
Bengals +14.5
Broncos +6.5
49ers +10
DJATC:
Jets OVER44.5
Lions OVER44.5
Colts OVER43
Vikings -4.5
Chargers OVER41.5
kuma:
Bears (+4.5)
Bills (-4.5)
Browns (+5.5)
Titans (+3.5) -- Confidence
Broncos (+6.5)
BeachBumBabs:
Vikings -4.5 - confidence
Vikings OVER 40.5
Browns +5.5
Lions +8
Titans +3.5
JohnZimbo:
Bills under 39.5
Colts -3.5
Vikings -4.5
Rams – 10
Bills -4.5 confidence
miplet:
Panthers +7.5
Browns +5.5
Falcons -1
Titans +3.5
Vikings -4.5
Onenickelmiracle:
Cowboys over 41.5
Raiders under 52.5
Packers under 44.5
Titans under 43
Vikings -4.5
gwae
Eagles (-6.5)
Browns (+5.5) confidence
Colts (+3.5)
Steelers (-14.5)
Seahawks (-13.5)
scolist:
Jaguars +6.5
Jaguars Under 40 (Confidence)
Falcons Over 51
Titans +3.5
Steelers -14.5
MidwestAP:
Raiders +13.5 - Confidence
Jets +13.5
Redskins +6.5
Titans +3.5
Bengals +14.5
Gordonm888:
Giants -6 - Confidence
Patriots -13.5
Browns +5.5
Bills -4.5
Seahawks -13.5
IndyJeffrey:
Raiders +13.5
Eagles -6.5
Lions +8
Titans +3.5
Chargers -6.5
Romes:
Patriots -13.5
Steelers -14.5
Seahawks -13.5
Rams -10
Chiefs -13.5 CONFIDENCE
EdCollins:
SKIP WEEK
fleastiff:
buccaneers +1
redskins +6.5
ravens UNDER 41
dolphins OVER 39.5
dolphins + 4.5
Joeman:
Panthers +7.5
Eagles -6.5 -Confidence
Colts -3
Chargers -6.5
Raiders UNDER 52.5
TroopScott:
Giants OVER 41.5
Raiders OVER 52.5
Panthers OVER 43.5
Jets OVER 44.5
Eagles OVER 42
Rigondeaux:
Dolphins +4.5
Browns +5.5
Jets +13.5
Colts -3.5
Bengals +14.5
Wizard:
Cowboys +6
Panthers +7.5-CONFIDENCE
Raiders +13.5
Jets +13.5
Redskins +6.5
DJ 0-2
Jz 2-1
I picked all late games
Quote: GWAEOOOHHHHH BOY..........
Not that I'm keeping track, but here are the top 5...
DJATC: 54-36
L: Jets OVER44.5
L: Lions OVER44.5
Colts OVER43
L: Vikings -4.5
L: Chargers OVER41.5
gwae: 56-39
W: Eagles (-6.5)
W: Browns (+5.5) confidence
Colts (-3.5)
L: Steelers (-14.5)
L: Seahawks (-13.5)
JohnZimbo: 53-38
L: Bills under 39.5
Colts -3.5
L: Vikings -4.5
W: Rams – 10
W: Bills -4.5 confidence
Prozema: 51-39
L: Jets over 44.5
W: Texans -6.5
Titans +3.5 Confidence
Titans over 43
W: Chargers -6.5
FourFiveFace: 55-46
L: Raiders +13.5
L: Jets +13.5-Confidence
W: Bengals +14.5
W: Cardinals +13.5
L: 49ers +10
Quote: prozemaA lot riding on that colts / titans game.
Root root root for the home team... If they don't win it's a shame...
Good luck fellas.
Quote: GWAEI put colts plus 3.5 lol. I have titans but switched it last second but forgot to change the line.
Only reason I picked that game was I was hoping it would come down to the final game.
Quote: prozemaYou and JZ pick in favor of the colts often. I assume you are fans?
Anyway, needing a swing, I've been picking against them for the last two weeks.
Quote: GWAEOOOHHHHH BOY..........
Hope I did this right...
DJATC: 54-36. 60.00%
Colts OVER43
gwae: 56-39. 58.95%
Colts (-3.5)
Prozema: 51-39. 56.67%
Titans +3.5 Confidence
Titans over 43
JohnZimbo: 53-38. 54.95%
Colts -3.5
FourFiveFace: 55-46. 54.46%
It's coming down to the wire between djatc and gwae (boo).
Quote: prozemaHope I did this right...
DJATC: 54-36. 60.00%
Colts OVER43
gwae: 56-39. 58.95%
Colts (-3.5)
Prozema: 51-39. 56.67%
Titans +3.5 Confidence
Titans over 43
JohnZimbo: 53-38. 54.95%
Colts -3.5
FourFiveFace: 55-46. 54.46%
Current line is 5.5
O/U 42.5
Quote: prozemaCurrent line is 5.5
O/U 42.5
According to my maffs, outcome is is gonna be:
Over - DJATC wins
Under - DJATC loses
Colts -3.5 doesn't matter
The only time it would matter is if the O/U ends in a push, then GWAE would need to win Colts -3.5, just so DJATC & GWAE both end with a 60% win rate.
JohnnyQ wants the very same bet to WIN, which would give him a record of .500.
Rigondeaux wants his Colts -3.5 bet to win, giving him a record of .500.
I think that's it. If so, the Most Average Prize will be split by at least three and maybe four people, I think. (I'm busy at work tonight... I might have missed someone.)
Thus, Terapined and I would rather have the Titans cover, so the Most Average prize is split just three ways, and not four. (Again, assuming I calculated all of that correctly, based upon how they all did in their other picks.)
Quote: RSAccording to my maffs, outcome is is gonna be:
Over - DJATC wins
Under - DJATC loses
Colts -3.5 doesn't matter
The only time it would matter is if the O/U ends in a push, then GWAE would need to win Colts -3.5, just so DJATC & GWAE both end with a 60% win rate.
43 is a really tough over/under to push.
Quote: RSJohnzimbo's out.
It's coming down to the wire between djatc and gwae (boo).
too bad my original maths wasnt the correct maths.
Doesn't matter?? I'm at work and it's late, but I must be missing something. I have GWAE winning if the Colts cover the 3.5, with an UNDER total, but Djatc winning if the Colts do not cover, with an UNDER total.Quote: RSAccording to my maffs, outcome is is gonna be:
Over - DJATC wins
Under - DJATC loses
Colts -3.5 doesn't matter
I have at least 2nd locked up because JZ and I have the same pick. Looks like prozema can tie for 3rd if titans cover and go over.
Prozema:
49 38
Jets over 44.5 LOSS
Texans -6.5 WIN
Titans +3.5 Confidence
Titans over 43
Chargers -6.5 WIN
Best 58.06
DJATC:
54 32
Jets OVER44.5 LOSS
Lions OVER44.5 LOSS
Colts OVER43
Vikings -4.5 LOSS
Chargers OVER41.5 LOSS
Colts over 60.44
Colts under 59.34
Colts push 60.00
JohnZimbo:
51 36
Bills under 39.5 LOSS
Colts -3.5
Vikings -4.5 LOSS
Rams – 10 WIN
Bills -4.5 confidence WIN
Colts cover 59.14
Colts dont 58.06
Gwae
53 37
Eagles (-6.5) WIN
Browns (+5.5) confidence WIN
Colts (+3.5)
Steelers (-14.5) LOSS
Seahawks (-13.5) LOSS
Colts cover 59.38
Colts dont 58.33
Quote: GWAEI think I have this locked up. Colts are going to beat them easily. Ten is missing their QB and top 2 defensive players. I doubt ten will score more than 10. The question is, will Indy score 40 by themselves.
And you call yourself a Steelers fan? SMH.
Quote: unJonAnd you call yourself a Steelers fan? SMH.
most talented team to miss the playoffis in a long time imo. Maybe a real coach could get them to put games together.
I meant, you should be rooting for a tie in this Colts/Titans game.Quote: GWAEmost talented team to miss the playoffis in a long time imo. Maybe a real coach could get them to put games together.
Quote: GWAEI think I have this locked up. Colts are going to beat them easily. Ten is missing their QB and top 2 defensive players. I doubt ten will score more than 10. The question is, will Indy score 40 by themselves.
Aren't the Colts -3.5? You have them listed at +3.5.
Quote: beachbumbabsAren't the Colts -3.5? You have them listed at +3.5.
Sounds like an auto-disqualification to me.
Lot of bad maths in this thread recently.Quote: RSSounds like an auto-disqualification to me.
Quote: beachbumbabsAren't the Colts -3.5? You have them listed at +3.5.
haha yeah, I addressed that earlier in the day. I had titans +3.5 but switched it before sending to colts, but forgot to change the line. Luckily we have precedent of this happening earlier in the year and the pick is the name, the line is fixed.
Quote: RSSounds like an auto-disqualification to me.
love you too
Quote: unJonI meant, you should be rooting for a tie in this Colts/Titans game.
well for a few hundred dollars F the steelers.
gwae is 56-39 right now.
djatc wins:
55-36 = 55/(55+36) = 0.60439560439
djatc loses:
54-37 = 54/(54+37) = 0.5934065934
djatc pushes:
54-36 = 54/(54+36) = 0.6
gwae wins:
57-39 = 57/(57+39) = 0.59375
gwae loses:
56-40 = 56/(56+40) = 0.58333333333
So now it looks like the only way for GWAE to win is if it's an UNDER and the Colts cover. Anything else, DJATC wins.
Who would have thought this would have come down to the final game of the final week? Oof.
Quote: unJonLot of bad maths in this thread recently.
Get off my back chief I was off by a few zeroes.
Quote: RSdjatc is 54-36 right now.
gwae is 56-39 right now.
djatc wins:
55-36 = 55/(55+36) = 0.60439560439
djatc loses:
54-37 = 54/(54+37) = 0.5934065934
djatc pushes:
54-36 = 54/(54+36) = 0.6
gwae wins:
57-39 = 57/(57+39) = 0.59375
gwae loses:
56-40 = 56/(56+40) = 0.58333333333
So now it looks like the only way for GWAE to win is if it's an UNDER and the Colts cover. Anything else, DJATC wins.
Who would have thought this would have come down to the final game of the final week? Oof.
I purposely picked this game, just in case it would come down to it. However I really thought it would be impossible for it to.
Anyway Steelers and Seahawks laying that many points is a LOL
Jets are absolute dumpster trash. Put up some garbage time TDs. Same for Packers. Chargers sucked the 1st half. WTF Vikings, actually WTF Bears take your starters out and let the Vikings ball out.
My team is turning into the NFC Steelers. Always playing to the level of their competition.
I guess the best thing about all this is that I don't have to root for a team on this night game, just more scoring. Always hated betting the spread vs O/U's. Hey what'ya know the half is at 27 points, and the Colts (which are going to win) are only up by 1 TD.
Last thing, I am curious as to what GWAE or JohnZimbo was going for this week for picks. Do what you usually do for picks, or gameplan around the 2 others and pick against them?
