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lilredrooster
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April 25th, 2022 at 2:44:17 AM permalink
_____________


6'3" Ja Morant blocking 7 footer Lauri Markaanen's shot___________________insane

this dude is unreal - his '22 stats are almost as impressive as Lebron's______________________not at all far off


.



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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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April 27th, 2022 at 2:17:53 AM permalink
______________


betting the run line in baseball is much different than betting the puck line in hockey because the home fave gets many more points than the away fave because the home team will not get to bat in the bottom of the 9th if they're ahead by one run - the game is over

also, if they go ahead by just one run in the bottom of the 9th , the inning will not be completed - the game is over

the away fave will get about between 45 and 65 points and the home fave will get about between 80 and 100 points________usually, there are exceptions

just looking at this and guessing it looks a bet on the home fave on the run line is a better deal generally than a bet on the away fave

using covers.com I tracked about 100 home faves on the run line, comparing how much net dollars they won compared to the money line when they won the game
if they won by just one run, of course, it is a loss on the run line

they won significantly more on the run line than on the money line - more than $1K bucks more based on $100 bets

I realize this is not enough games to come to a conclusion - I don't have the energy to do one thousand games - maybe someone else does

other stuff that affects the run line is the point total - the smaller the total, the more points are awarded - and the size of the money line

on big faves, such as -280 you will often get more than 100 points

this is pretty interesting to me, maybe not to many others, idk


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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Apr 27, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
moses
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April 27th, 2022 at 7:13:58 AM permalink
Excellent post. So what you're saying is a home team must score 2 more runs in 8 innings that an away does in 9.

All the Dodger wins have covered the run line this year. Mets are 12-2. GIANTS 10-3.

Blue Jay's 6-6.
lilredrooster
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April 27th, 2022 at 7:47:52 AM permalink
Quote: moses

So what you're saying is a home team must score 2 more runs in 8 innings that an away does in 9.



link to original post




yes. the exception would be a walk off home run in which all the men on base are counted as scoring


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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
moses
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April 27th, 2022 at 10:57:54 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: moses

So what you're saying is a home team must score 2 more runs in 8 innings that an away does in 9.



link to original post




yes. the exception would be a walk off home run in which all the men on base are counted as scoring


.
link to original post



Got it. I'm thinking it takes an excellent team to beat money line consistently. Strong hitting and pitching.
avianrandy
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April 30th, 2022 at 6:25:27 PM permalink
Quote: moses

Rooster: Looking forward to your outlook on the Kentucky Derby.
link to original post

I second this. Derby is next Saturday
lilredrooster
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May 1st, 2022 at 5:16:53 AM permalink
Quote: avianrandy

Quote: moses

Rooster: Looking forward to your outlook on the Kentucky Derby.
link to original post

I second this. Derby is next Saturday
link to original post




I should have the Timeform breakdown on Friday and will post it and some comments then

just some early thoughts__________20 horses are set to run right now - that could change - anyway

it's a gigantic field that you will almost never see in U.S. racing other than the Derby

this huge field means greater unpredictability - the upside is potentially huge payouts, especially in the exotics

the other thing that causes great unpredictability is the fact that these horses are at the stage of their lives when they're improving. and there is no telling who will improve a lot, who a little, who very little and who not at all____________this makes a case for the shots____________but I'm not a shots player

not in any way recommending this type of bet - it's not my style - anyway - a good payout on a Superfecta (the top 4 horses in correct order) in a large field for a $1.00 bet would be 5 or $6K.

in the 2005 Derby 3 out of the top 4 were extreme shots - Giacomo won it at 50/1, right behind him was Closing Argument at 72/1________the other 2 were at 9/2 and 29/1

a fireman, Chris Hertzog, had the lone winning $1.00 fecta ticket which paid_____________$ 𝟖𝟔𝟒,𝟐𝟓𝟑.𝟓𝟎_________not bad for a day at the track_______(~:/



♥♦♣♠



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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 1, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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May 1st, 2022 at 3:37:15 PM permalink
______________


I just watched the entire Warriors/Grizzlies game

I'm not biased - I'm not a fan of either team

the Refs were terrible - the worst I've ever seen - they blew so many calls

they make serious $$$$ and they can't do their jobs - unbelievable

they were so slow to restart the game after a pause

to me, they were a complete joke - I've watched much, much better NCAA refs


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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 1, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
ksdjdj
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May 1st, 2022 at 3:55:36 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

______________


betting the run line in baseball is much different than betting the puck line in hockey because the home fave gets many more points than the away fave because the home team will not get to bat in the bottom of the 9th if they're ahead by one run - the game is over

also, if they go ahead by just one run in the bottom of the 9th , the inning will not be completed - the game is over

the away fave will get about between 45 and 65 points and the home fave will get about between 80 and 100 points________usually, there are exceptions

just looking at this and guessing it looks a bet on the home fave on the run line is a better deal generally than a bet on the away fave

using covers.com I tracked about 100 home faves on the run line, comparing how much net dollars they won compared to the money line when they won the game
if they won by just one run, of course, it is a loss on the run line

they won significantly more on the run line than on the money line - more than $1K bucks more based on $100 bets

I realize this is not enough games to come to a conclusion - I don't have the energy to do one thousand games - maybe someone else does

other stuff that affects the run line is the point total - the smaller the total, the more points are awarded - and the size of the money line

on big faves, such as -280 you will often get more than 100 points

this is pretty interesting to me, maybe not to many others, idk


.
link to original post


I don't know if the info in this link is of any help to you, or anyone else, but you may find it interesting at least.

Note 1: There are a lot more "baseball articles / links" if you scroll down to "Read More Like This".

Note 2: The article was last updated "April 2, 2018" .
SOOPOO
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May 2nd, 2022 at 10:37:02 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

______________


I just watched the entire Warriors/Grizzlies game

I'm not biased - I'm not a fan of either team

the Refs were terrible - the worst I've ever seen - they blew so many calls

they make serious $$$$ and they can't do their jobs - unbelievable

they were so slow to restart the game after a pause

to me, they were a complete joke - I've watched much, much better NCAA refs


.
link to original post



Agree. The amount of dead time watching the refs stare at a TV screen is staggering. I don't need to hear....

"The defending player impeded the offensive player from his direct line towards the basket, while his feet were in the restricted area. There was no wind up, no excessive force to the head or neck area, and no unsportsmanlike action noted. The shot clock had not expired at the time of the initial contact, and the offensive player had not began the gathering process to make a legal shot at the basket. The amount of contact was deemed to be enough to consider the action the defender did to be considered a foul. As the defender was between the offensive player and the basket, the foul does not meet the criteria for a clear path foul. So it is deemed a common foul on the defender. Additionally, however, after the foul was called, the offensive player tossed the ball away from the court, and will be charged a delay of game warning. Since this is the second such offense, it will be upgraded to a technical foul. This resulted in incessant whining by the head coach on the offensive team, and he was also thus charged a technical foul. So the defensive team gets to shoot two technical foul shots. Since the common foul was only the fourth on the defensive team this quarter, the offensive team will inbounds the ball free throw line extended after the technical foul shots. The shot clock will be reset to 14 seconds as there was no change of possession during this what should have been a simple foul call."
mcallister3200
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May 2nd, 2022 at 12:48:41 PM permalink
Any ref with the stones to toss Draymond Green from a game for his antics rather than, like most refs, giving him extra leeway not afforded to others because “that’s just the way he is” gets a pass from me. Dude treats refs like they’re subhuman.
ksdjdj
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May 4th, 2022 at 4:27:10 PM permalink
I had 150 in bonus funds and decided to bet it all on the bet below (todays' 76ers @ Heat game):

'Bam Adebayo, 20 pts or more" x "PJ Tucker, 7 or more rebounds" x "Tyler Herro, 3 or more three-pointers" @ 13/1^^^

^^^: This is because I used "bonus funds", if I used "real money" I would have received 14/1***.

***: Boosted Odds (original / un-boosted odds were 10/1)

Lastly, after a quick look at the "retail site odds", I would estimate that the chance is somewhere around 8% (assuming no "+ or -" correlation).
askmenow24
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smoothgrh
May 4th, 2022 at 10:59:31 PM permalink
vodds asian sports bookmakers works better for me. Considering that you can do multiple sportsbook to raise odds for winning, you can even partner with them through affiliate program. Refer customers to earn commissions guaranteed!
smoothgrh
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May 10th, 2022 at 2:24:03 PM permalink
Yesterday, the Golden State Warriors beat the Memphis Grizzlies 101-98 in their playoff game by taking the lead — and scoring their final 11 points — on free throws.

My exhaustive 10 seconds of searching did not find an answer to my question: What is the NBA record for consecutive points scored on free throws to end a game?
ksdjdj
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May 11th, 2022 at 4:07:53 PM permalink
Don't have an opinion*** on which teams will win tonight, but I had the "Multi-bet" below:

1000 @ $2.89^^^ (+189) on "Celtics x Warriors" (both must win)

***: Just using the current "pinnacle odds" as a guide.

^^^: "Boosted odds" promo (they gave me the equivalent of $1.70 per team).

Note: I know RW III is out for the Celtics.
lilredrooster
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May 12th, 2022 at 1:48:11 AM permalink
______________


wow - the Grizzlies beat the Warriors by 39 last night in Memphis - they were up by 55 in the 3rd quarter

not many would have guessed that could happen


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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
ksdjdj
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May 12th, 2022 at 5:47:05 PM permalink
Would be great if 76ers can come back and win (by 7 or less) because:
a) I have a teaser going with the Heat @ +7.5 and
b) I have an "odds boost all up", on the 76ers and Suns, that I have converted to a "conditional Suns single*** "

***: I got $3450 @ +257 on the "odds boost", but I "over-betted" on purpose so that I can fully hedge by backing the Heat in the 1st leg (I will partially hedge the 2nd leg, so that my liability is less than $1,000^^^).

^^^: If 76ers win the 1st leg, it will then be the equivalent of $6,450 @ -110 on the Suns, before any planned hedging on the Mavericks (to reduce the liability to about $1000).

----
TLDR:

Looks like Heat are going to win###, so after all that work, I will probably "break-even".

###: Heat-76ers are 68-52, at the time of this post.
ksdjdj
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May 15th, 2022 at 6:50:40 PM permalink
Mavs / Suns is looking a bit like a "good team vs average team - college game### " (I stopped watching partway through the 2nd quarter^^^).

###: I know at least one Suns player was way below expectations, probably through "injury / and or tiredness", according to the commentators.

^^^: Just had a look, and the score was 92-50 at the start of the final quarter.

Had $700 @ +235 on the Mavs***, because I was looking at the odds just before the game and that looked "a bit too high compared to the prices I could see everywhere else" (+220 was the next best price, with the average price about +210, with the Books that I look at).

***: This was a "hedge" on the last leg of a three-team teaser, so unless the Suns can win by 1 (or more) then I will only win ~$140, overall (from this bet, and the related teaser bet).
lilredrooster
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May 16th, 2022 at 12:55:09 AM permalink
____________


yesterday, the Reds gave up no hits - as in zero - and still lost to the Pirates

it's only the 6th time since 1901 this has happened in MLB

a rookie pitcher for the Reds, Hunter Greene, struck out 9 batters and allowed no hits thru 7 innings but gave up 5 walks

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
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May 16th, 2022 at 6:04:14 AM permalink
Yesterday Albert Pujols made his first appearance as a pitcher after 20 years of playing in the MLB. Only an ERA of 36.0 for his first outing.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
billryan
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May 16th, 2022 at 7:25:32 AM permalink
All the Yankees did yesterday was win. I think this makes it eighteen out of twenty but it's hard to keep track of the losses, they occur so rarely. If they can stay healthy, I imagine they will play so very entertaining ball down the stretch. I have a small bet they win 126 games before they stop playing this year.
If you are a ball fan, you need to watch Yankee starter Nasty Nelson Cortez. He originally resembled a bowling bowl with a stache but then he dropped about thirty pounds. At first, I thought he was lucky, but it's mid-May and his era is just over one. In his last two starts, he pitched 7 1/3 no-hit ball and yesterday gave up three hits and one run. He has a half dozen pitches and a dozen or more arm angles.
Yesterday, he struck out the side on ten pitches and no batter saw the same pitch twice.
Cortez was born in Cuba but raised in Miami. He was drafted in the 36th round by the Yankees who were liking his progress when the O's drafted him under the Rule 5 draft. In his first and only week with them, he gave up a grand slam in his first game. A week later, he came in with the bases loaded, walked the first batter, and gave up a grand slam to the second batter. The O's returned him to the Yankees.
The next year, he was traded to Seattle but didn't make the club and was released. The Yankees signed him to give them extra arms in Triple-A but after performing well in what was supposed to be a brief call-up, he has become the stud muffin that he is.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
mcallister3200
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May 16th, 2022 at 7:37:28 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

All the Yankees did yesterday was win. I think this makes it eighteen out of twenty but it's hard to keep track of the losses, they occur so rarely. If they can stay healthy, I imagine they will play so very entertaining ball down the stretch. I have a small bet they win 126 games before they stop playing this year.

link to original post



The thought that they may win 10% more games than any team in the history of the MLB has before seems insane to me but who knows.
billryan
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May 16th, 2022 at 7:51:08 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: billryan

All the Yankees did yesterday was win. I think this makes it eighteen out of twenty but it's hard to keep track of the losses, they occur so rarely. If they can stay healthy, I imagine they will play so very entertaining ball down the stretch. I have a small bet they win 126 games before they stop playing this year.

link to original post



The thought that they may win 10% more games than any team in the history of the MLB has before seems insane to me but who knows.
link to original post



1998 Yankees won 125 games, with the playoffs structured differently. Last year the Dodgers had a shot at 118 but lost before even making the WS.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
mcallister3200
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May 16th, 2022 at 7:53:59 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: billryan

All the Yankees did yesterday was win. I think this makes it eighteen out of twenty but it's hard to keep track of the losses, they occur so rarely. If they can stay healthy, I imagine they will play so very entertaining ball down the stretch. I have a small bet they win 126 games before they stop playing this year.

link to original post



The thought that they may win 10% more games than any team in the history of the MLB has before seems insane to me but who knows.
link to original post



1998 Yankees won 125 games, with the playoffs structured different.
link to original post



You’re including postseason wins?
billryan
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May 16th, 2022 at 7:56:54 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: billryan

Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: billryan

All the Yankees did yesterday was win. I think this makes it eighteen out of twenty but it's hard to keep track of the losses, they occur so rarely. If they can stay healthy, I imagine they will play so very entertaining ball down the stretch. I have a small bet they win 126 games before they stop playing this year.

link to original post



The thought that they may win 10% more games than any team in the history of the MLB has before seems insane to me but who knows.
link to original post



1998 Yankees won 125 games, with the playoffs structured different.
link to original post



You’re including postseason wins?
link to original post



Of course. You can win 130 regular season wins but if you don't win the series, you didn't accomplish much. Ask the Mariners, who set a regular season win record but lost to the Yankees in the playoffs.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
mcallister3200
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May 16th, 2022 at 8:57:27 AM permalink
Ok….I don’t know why it’s “of course.” Unless stated I’d generally assume otherwise. There’s typically bets for total of regular season wins, and then separate playoff bets to win a series or pennant or title but the win total bets generally end after regular season….

I’m not sure I’d agree if you don’t win it you don’t accomplish much. Obviously it’s the main goal but also more subject to just plain variance than regular season where there’s larger sample size. Postseason wins might be factored heavily into a players legendary status but the wins not so much. I’d never say Hank Aaron “didn’t accomplish much” because his 755 home runs were in the regular season, or that Mike Trout hasn’t accomplished much winning 3 MVP’s because the front office can’t put a better team around him.
billryan
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May 16th, 2022 at 9:34:29 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Ok….I don’t know why it’s “of course.” Unless stated I’d generally assume otherwise. There’s typically bets for total of regular season wins, and then separate playoff bets to win a series or pennant or title but the win total bets generally end after regular season….

I’m not sure I’d agree if you don’t win it you don’t accomplish much. Obviously it’s the main goal but also more subject to just plain variance than regular season where there’s larger sample size. Postseason wins might be factored heavily into a players legendary status but the wins not so much. I’d never say Hank Aaron “didn’t accomplish much” because his 755 home runs were in the regular season, or that Mike Trout hasn’t accomplished much winning 3 MVP’s because the front office can’t put a better team around him.
link to original post



Players can have great achievements without winning a title. Teams can't, IMO. Look at the Patriots. Their perfect regular season went down in flames when they lost to my Giants at The Big Game. Few people know the Yankees lead the majors in wins in the 1980s, although many know that was the first decade they failed to win a title.
The Yankees won 125 games in their 1998 Championship season. No other team has gotten close. My bet is this team beats it. It's a small bet, reflecting the long odds it actually happens.

The reason it is an "of course" is no one would bet a team would win 125 out of 162. I may be crazy but that would be a batshite stupid bet .
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
gordonm888
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May 16th, 2022 at 3:42:31 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

All the Yankees did yesterday was win. I think this makes it eighteen out of twenty but it's hard to keep track of the losses, they occur so rarely. If they can stay healthy, I imagine they will play so very entertaining ball down the stretch. I have a small bet they win 126 games before they stop playing this year.
If you are a ball fan, you need to watch Yankee starter Nasty Nelson Cortez. He originally resembled a bowling bowl with a stache but then he dropped about thirty pounds. At first, I thought he was lucky, but it's mid-May and his era is just over one. In his last two starts, he pitched 7 1/3 no-hit ball and yesterday gave up three hits and one run. He has a half dozen pitches and a dozen or more arm angles.
Yesterday, he struck out the side on ten pitches and no batter saw the same pitch twice.
Cortez was born in Cuba but raised in Miami. He was drafted in the 36th round by the Yankees who were liking his progress when the O's drafted him under the Rule 5 draft. In his first and only week with them, he gave up a grand slam in his first game. A week later, he came in with the bases loaded, walked the first batter, and gave up a grand slam to the second batter. The O's returned him to the Yankees.
The next year, he was traded to Seattle but didn't make the club and was released. The Yankees signed him to give them extra arms in Triple-A but after performing well in what was supposed to be a brief call-up, he has become the stud muffin that he is.
link to original post



Oh I see you are counting post-season games in your 126 game figure. Aaron Judge and Gio Stanton are indeed hitting like Ruth and Gehrig, but no way will the Yankees win 114+ games in the regular season. Their catchers are a weakness and a spring hot streak doesn't mean their older-than-average team will perform the same way in July and August.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
billryan
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May 16th, 2022 at 3:55:19 PM permalink
We shall see. The Yankees use the regular season to prepare for the playoffs. If catching continues to be an issue, they will fix it at the trade deadline.
I went into the season thinking they were the second-best team in the East, but am happily surprised. If I thought they had a real shot at it, I'd have bet more but this way I keep it interesting.
I got 20-1 on the bet, while betting they won the WS was 8-1.
101 wins to go.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
ksdjdj
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May 17th, 2022 at 4:38:50 PM permalink
Had 200 @ +550 on the "same game multi" below (Celtics @ Heat):
" Match result will be Heat - J Butler 25 (or more) points - B Adebayo 10 (or more) Rebounds "
SOOPOO
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May 17th, 2022 at 5:05:27 PM permalink
I figure I better post this now, because if I post it after a win no one would believe me! 500-1 on Garrick Higgo to win the PGA. Also have Scheffler at 11-1 to win, but if he comes 2nd through 5th I get money back as a free bet. Also had another free bet to use so got 14-1 on Hadwin top 10 finish.
Hunterhill
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May 18th, 2022 at 4:47:21 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: billryan

Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: billryan

All the Yankees did yesterday was win. I think this makes it eighteen out of twenty but it's hard to keep track of the losses, they occur so rarely. If they can stay healthy, I imagine they will play so very entertaining ball down the stretch. I have a small bet they win 126 games before they stop playing this year.

link to original post



The thought that they may win 10% more games than any team in the history of the MLB has before seems insane to me but who knows.
link to original post



1998 Yankees won 125 games, with the playoffs structured different.
link to original post



You’re including postseason wins?
link to original post



Of course. You can win 130 regular season wins but if you don't win the series, you didn't accomplish much. Ask the Mariners, who set a regular season win record but lost to the Yankees in the playoffs.
link to original post


Traditionally when people talk about number of wins they are referring to regular season. Also for individual records, Most wins per season or home runs it’s always counted separately from post season totals
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ksdjdj
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May 18th, 2022 at 11:39:38 PM permalink
I had 240 @ +375 on the "Odds Boost - same game multi" below (Celtics @ Heat):
" Match result will be Heat - B Adebayo 15 (or more) points - J Butler 7 (or more) Rebounds "
ksdjdj
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May 19th, 2022 at 3:59:11 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I had 240 @ +375 on the "Odds Boost - same game multi" below (Celtics @ Heat):
" Match result will be Heat - B Adebayo 15 (or more) points - J Butler 7 (or more) Rebounds "
link to original post


I managed to use a "free cancel" for the above bet, because the line went from -3.5 to -1 for the Heat.
lilredrooster
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May 25th, 2022 at 3:33:52 AM permalink
Quote: billryan



All the Yankees did yesterday was win. I think this makes it eighteen out of twenty but it's hard to keep track of the losses, they occur so rarely.
link to original post




the Yankees have now lost 4 out of their last 6 - including 2 losses to the lowly Baltimore Orioles

maybe things are changing for them now - maybe their first 40 games were an outlier - maybe not

there still way ahead of any AL team in % of wins at 69.8

but the Dodgers are closing in on them with a % of 69.0 making the Yanks less exceptional for the year


the Yankees haven't won a World Series or even been in the World Series since 2009

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 25, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
Gundy
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May 26th, 2022 at 12:52:32 PM permalink
Quote: Gundy

Sober humans do not walk on the freeway at 6:37AM and get hit by a dump truck.
link to original post



Quote: mcallister3200

Humans with decency don’t make definitive statements of the like before they have the facts, if at all.
link to original post



Haskins was hammered.
lilredrooster
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moses
May 27th, 2022 at 4:10:38 PM permalink
_____________


great boxing match tomorrow night - 2 undefeated lightweights

Gervonta Davis is 26-0 with 24 knockouts

Rolly Romero is 14-0 with 12 knockouts

lightweights usually don't get a lot of attention

these 2 guys are really quick


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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
avianrandy
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May 27th, 2022 at 6:49:24 PM permalink
I was watching Jeopardy tonight and actually knew the final jeopardy.category was sports and entertainment. Probably knew less than1/3 of the regular questions,but knew final Jeopardy. Go figure. Only the champ got final right.
moses
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May 27th, 2022 at 7:09:54 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

_____________


great boxing match tomorrow night - 2 undefeated lightweights

Gervonta Davis is 26-0 with 24 knockouts

Rolly Romero is 14-0 with 12 knockouts

lightweights usually don't get a lot of attention

these 2 guys are really quick


.
link to original post



Is it pay per view?
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 28th, 2022 at 12:45:38 AM permalink
Quote: moses

Quote: lilredrooster

_____________


great boxing match tomorrow night - 2 undefeated lightweights

Gervonta Davis is 26-0 with 24 knockouts

Rolly Romero is 14-0 with 12 knockouts

lightweights usually don't get a lot of attention

these 2 guys are really quick


.
link to original post



Is it pay per view?
link to original post




yes, on showtime

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 28, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
ksdjdj
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June 2nd, 2022 at 5:56:22 PM permalink
My bets for NBA finals:

Note: ^^^ = "Boosted odds promo used"

Game 1 bets:
a) 400 @ +550^^^ on "Warriors to win match x K Thompson over 19.5 points x S Curry over 3.5 three-pointers "
b) 1600 to win 1000 on Warriors (Money Line)
c) 1100 to win 1000 on Warriors (-3.5)

"After X number of games" bets:
a) 360 @ +550^^^ on "Warriors to win the first 3 games" .
b) 480 @ +400^^^ on "Celtics to win 3 out of the first 4 games"

Note: I would have only had the Money Line bet on the Warriors, if there was no "boosted odds promo" on offer.

----
Update (after Game 1):
All bets that are resolved have lost (just the "Celtics to win 3 out of the first 4 games", still in play).

I "bailed" / cashed out of the "Warriors to win match x K Thompson over 19.5 points x S Curry over 3.5 three-pointers ", so I lost about $90 on that bet.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 2, 2022
lilredrooster
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June 5th, 2022 at 2:06:56 AM permalink
____________


this is my fave YT sports vid - incredible stuff


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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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Jimmy2Times
June 6th, 2022 at 2:48:57 AM permalink
______________


here are the NBA's official rules on the traveling violation_________________ ~:/ ___________________try not to snicker



below that is a hilarious imo Shaq attack vid showing obvious traveling violations that were no calls



it's obvious to me, that there is an unwritten policy in the NBA to overlook traveling violations probably to avoid slowing the game down and to maximize the entertainment value for the fans - it's quite rare to see traveling called



.
Section XIII—Traveling

A player who receives the ball while standing still may pivot, using either foot as the pivot foot.
A player who gathers the ball while progressing may take (1) two steps in coming to a stop, passing or shooting the ball, or (2) if he has not yet dribbled, one step prior to releasing the ball. A player who gathers the ball while dribbling may take two steps in coming to a stop, passing, or shooting the ball.
The first step occurs when a foot, or both feet, touch the floor after gaining control of the ball.
The second step occurs after the first step when the other foot touches the floor, or both feet touch the floor simultaneously.
A player who comes to a stop on step one when both feet are on the floor or touch the floor simultaneously may pivot using either foot as his pivot. If he jumps with both feet he must release the ball before either foot touches the floor.
A player who lands with one foot first may only pivot using that foot.
A progressing player who jumps off one foot on the first step may land with both feet simultaneously for the second step. In this situation, the player may not pivot with either foot and if one or both feet leave the floor the ball must be released before either returns to the floor.
In starting a dribble after (1) receiving the ball while standing still, or (2) coming to a legal stop, the ball must be out of the player’s hand before the pivot foot is raised off the floor.
If a player, with the ball in his possession, raises his pivot foot off the floor, he must pass or shoot before his pivot foot returns to the floor. If he drops the ball while in the air, he may not be the first to touch the ball.
A player who falls to the floor while holding the ball, or while coming to a stop, may not gain an advantage by sliding.
A player who attempts a field goal may not be the first to touch the ball if it fails to touch the backboard, basket ring or another player.
A player may not be the first to touch his own pass unless the ball touches his back- board, basket ring or another player.
Upon ending his dribble or gaining control of the ball, a player may not touch the floor consecutively with the same foot (hop).
PENALTY: Loss of ball. The ball is awarded to the opposing team on the sideline, nearest spot of the violation but no nearer the baseline than the foul line extended.



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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jun 6, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
mcallister3200
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June 7th, 2022 at 4:59:29 PM permalink
I don’t think DeShaun Watson is going to be playing football this year. The 24th accuser’s accusation is, well, rather explosive.
lilredrooster
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June 13th, 2022 at 5:35:43 AM permalink
___________


excellent article imo stating that parlays are generally a bad bet

this is an old article (2016) but I doubt anything has changed

it states that sportsbooks in Nevada had a 30% hold (edge) on parlays between 1984 and 2015 - that's much greater than horse racing where the house has a ridiculous (imo) advantage

there is another good article about it too

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https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/why-sports-bettors-should-avoid-parlays/


https://www.professormj.com/pages/sports-betting-lessons-stop-doing-parlays#:~:text=This%20means%20you%20are%20going,parlays%2C%20it%20gets%20even%20worse.



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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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June 16th, 2022 at 1:50:36 AM permalink
______________


for the first time in the history of MLB a team threw 2 immacuate innings in one game

an immaculate inning means striking out 3 batters on 9 pitches

it was done by 2 different Astros pitchers against the Rangers

even more incredible, and more absurd - 𝗶𝘁 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝟯 𝗯𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝟮 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀


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https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/astros-luis-garcia-phil-maton-make-mlb-history-by-throwing-two-immaculate-innings-vs-same-rangers-hitters/


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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
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June 16th, 2022 at 5:10:18 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

______________


for the first time in the history of MLB a team threw 2 immacuate innings in one game

an immaculate inning means striking out 3 batters on 9 pitches

it was done by 2 different Astros pitchers against the Rangers

even more incredible, and more absurd - 𝗶𝘁 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝟯 𝗯𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝟮 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀


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https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/astros-luis-garcia-phil-maton-make-mlb-history-by-throwing-two-immaculate-innings-vs-same-rangers-hitters/


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link to original post



When I read that yesterday I was shocked that it had not happened before.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Joeman
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June 16th, 2022 at 5:26:00 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

______________


here are the NBA's official rules on the traveling violation_________________ ~:/ ___________________try not to snicker

Yeah, it got so bad in the 90's that ESPN had to do a PSA... ;)

"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
lilredrooster
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June 19th, 2022 at 5:31:20 AM permalink
_____________


from googling all over the place I have found that of the major pro sports MLB seems to be the most unpredictable

according to various sites dogs win there at about a 44% clip but only at about a 34% clip in the NHL and the NFL (referring to money line dogs). Edit: I somehow managed to forget about the NBA - what I found is that dogs only win about 33% of games there on the money line

of course, these sites could be wrong or their data could be outdated, but I don't think so

the Wiz has some very good data on MLB betting in his WOO site but it does not have this info

and very surprisingly 𝙣𝙤𝙗𝙤𝙙𝙮 𝙝𝙖𝙨 𝙙𝙖𝙩a 𝙤𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙍.𝙊.𝙄. 𝙤𝙛 𝙗𝙞𝙜 𝙛𝙖𝙫𝙚𝙨 𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙨𝙪𝙨 𝙨𝙢𝙖𝙡𝙡 𝙛𝙖𝙫𝙚𝙨

from personal observation I believe the small faves of -120 or less have a significantly greater R.O.I. than the big faves of, for example, -220 in MLB

but I cannot prove this - I don't have the means or the energy to go back over a couple of thousand games to see if I'm right

even in this age of easy numbers crunching thanks to powerful computers this data is still not available

or at least I can't find it




here is something else - this blogger who calls himself "the sports geek" says he went back over 10 years of NBA betting and found that simply betting the fave on the money line was profitable_________________(~:/_________________he doesn't say by how much so I would guess by a tiny margin

is this really true_________???____________I dunno but the guy's blog is pretty impressive

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https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/10-years-of-nba-underdog-favorite-trends/


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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jun 19, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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June 23rd, 2022 at 12:55:31 AM permalink
______________


R.I.P. Goose____________


Tony Siragusa, the ferocious and fun loving 330 pound defensive lineman for the Championship Baltimore Ravens team has passed
he was just 55


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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jun 23, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
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