2018 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown
Quote: SM777Show on the second choice in an 8 horse field? What exactly would you be expecting to win there.....?
If Justify is out of the money, which may seem unlikely, but unpredictable outcomes happen every day in racing, show would probably pay pretty well.
If that happens and Good Magic finishes 3rd he will have made a decent profit and those who bet him to win or underneath or on top in an exacta are S.O.L.
my say $200 plus whatever profit. I think I am guaranteed$10.Quote: SM777Show on the second choice in an 8 horse field? What exactly would you be expecting to win there.....?
Quote: speedycrapAOS, what horse do you like please?
I like Justify but I am cautious on two fronts:
1-the “scratches” he suffered in the Derby; and
2–I’m not betting a horse that is 2/5 (not even bridge jumping)
While everyone seems to think Good Magic is the second beat- I actually like Quip
I’d key Justify on top with Good Magic and Quip boxes for a Trifecta if it looks to pay anything decent
Quote: aceofspadesI like Justify but I am cautious on two fronts:
1-the “scratches” he suffered in the Derby; and
2–I’m not betting a horse that is 2/5 (not even bridge jumping)
While everyone seems to think Good Magic is the second beat- I actually like Quip
I’d key Justify on top with Good Magic and Quip boxes for a Trifecta if it looks to pay anything decent
Justify is a lock. No reason to bet him at 2/5 though. I'm passing on this race, and I gotta figure out whether or not to try to beat him in 3 weeks.
He has a bruised left hind hoof.
for the race he will be wearing a full shoe with an adhesive re-inforcement.
Maybe, maybe not significant. I would say the issue is a question mark; there's not a definitive answer.
the link is a New York Times story. they sometimes have good articles on racing.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/18/sports/justify-preakness.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fsports&action=click&contentCollection=sports®ion=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=3&pgtype=sectionfront
And when I take my hands off my eyes I have nothing more than guesses about how much the latest Balifornia Frankenhorse will outperform his peers, for how long. He will probably continue to run spectacularly well, until the day he suddenly very much doesn't do that at all, when the ride from all the 'training' with magic oats is over, and the physiological bill for his period of brilliance is suddenly due. But I'm pretty sure Meester Baffert doesn't really know all the nuances of the slope of that dosage/performance/time curve, so I sure don't, since what I believe this is really about isn't exactly the kind of thing that can be rigorously studied and openly documented in the cold light of day with a large well controlled study population.
Maybe the Belmont will be interesting, but I won't have anything cooking in this one.
I could make a case for a place or show wager on Lone Sailor, Quip, or Bravazo. Quip is fresh and could have run in the Derby. He also has off track #'s that suggest he may like Pimlico today. Lone Sailor ran a ho hum 8th in the Derby but does pick up a new (likely better) rider today. Lone Sailor and Bravazo are the "freshest" horses out of the Derby runners after returning in the Derby off a 6 week layoff (LADerby). Quip may be involved early from the rail and Bravazo could show a bit more pace from the outside. I lean Lone Sailor to pick up a piece of this from off the pace. I will dump Quip (like FinsRule) and bet a 4 horse Tri Box (2,5,7,8). JFTHOI, I will also bet a bridge jumper show bet on everyone but Justify.
GLTA
Track is sloppy, sealed, and favors front runner.
Although I think Larry Colmuss saying Justify is “unstoppable” was a bit much - considering he only won by a neck and those other horses were closing very very fast
Quote: ahiromuWin and place both paid 2.80. I made a rather sizable place... nice.
I did as well. I saw the pools and saw that Good Magic was taking in way too much money. Especially for a horse whose jockey said he was going to make it a match race against a better horse.
I figured if Justify got beat, it'd be by one horse, and not Good Magic. So I made a large place bet which had much better value than the win bet. The show paid $2.60!
I also hit the tri and super, but only for $.50 and $.10. And like everyone else, I hit the Pick 4. I lost money on that one however.
Quote: speedycrapAs of this moment, Show on Justify is 700K. Shoe on Good Magic is 600K. I will take Justify instead.
That was a strange show pool. A smart/easy decision by you.
Quote: FinsRuleJustify is a lock. No reason to bet him at 2/5 though. I'm passing on this race, and I gotta figure out whether or not to try to beat him in 3 weeks.
I guess I couldn't help myself, lol.
So, will Justify do it in 3 weeks? It seems like everyone is picking against him already. I get it. He was obviously tiring and horses that are not as good as he is, were coming fast.
I think he has a decent chance to win, however. He needs a fast track. Even though he has won twice on this mess, he'll do better on dirt. Also, he needs an easy lead. Good Magic sacrificed his chances to try to stop Justify. If someone does that again in the Belmont, Justify is done. But if Justify can stride out on an easy lead on a fast track, I think he can do it.
We'll see how many enter, and we'll see the weather. You'd think Pletcher is loaded for this, BUT - Audible and Noble Indy have Winstar connections. Vino Rosso may be hurt.
Will be interesting!
that way the other one will have a chance to win as will all the other entries.
Quote: djatcWhen does the triple crown thing end? I put a bet in that a horse will win, or not, at some sports book, and I have no idea when this resolves
it's your responsibility as a bettor to, at the very least, know how your bet resolves; to know what constitutes a win and what constitutes a loss
I wouldn't answer a question like this and I doubt anyone else will
we're not here to babysit you through your gambling experience
Quote: lilredroosterit's your responsibility as a bettor to, at the very least, know how your bet resolves; to know what constitutes a win and what constitutes a loss
I wouldn't answer a question like this and I doubt anyone else will
we're not here to babysit you through your gambling experience
That's pretty rude...June 9th is Belmont stakes
Quote: lilredroosterit's your responsibility as a bettor to, at the very least, know how your bet resolves; to know what constitutes a win and what constitutes a loss
I wouldn't answer a question like this and I doubt anyone else will
we're not here to babysit you through your gambling experience
Huh?
Quote: lilredroosterit's your responsibility as a bettor to, at the very least, know how your bet resolves; to know what constitutes a win and what constitutes a loss
I wouldn't answer a question like this and I doubt anyone else will
we're not here to babysit you through your gambling experience
IDGAF about all that just needed the date
Quote: djatcIDGAF about all that just needed the date
I am pretty sure the sheets do not list an actual resolution date for this bet.
Speaking generally, the earliest it could resolve (in any year) would be when the Kentucky Derby winner is declared out of the Preakness Stakes (for whatever reason). The latest it could resolve would be when the Belmont Stakes results go official.
So for this year (with Justify 2 for 2) the bet could resolve anytime between now and right after the 150th Belmont Stakes (Saturday June 9th 6:47pm EST).
Quote: KeeneoneI am pretty sure the sheets do not list an actual resolution date for this bet.
Speaking generally, the earliest it could resolve (in any year) would be when the Kentucky Derby winner is declared out of the Preakness Stakes (for whatever reason). The latest it could resolve would be when the Belmont Stakes results go official.
So for this year (with Justify 2 for 2) the bet could resolve anytime between now and right after the 150th Belmont Stakes (Saturday June 9th 6:47pm EST).
Thank you for the informative answer. I make so many bets on so many sports, and I only look at the lines so I don't know all the unimportant stuff like dates, or what time if it's a prolonged event.
Quote: edwardjsmithBelmont is only time most of these horses will go a Mile and 1/2. And jockeys are sometimes lost too. 6 f times last 5 years range from 1:10 4/5 to 1:14
Nice little stat there. That's crazy. I took a look at Secretariat's historic Belmont run and he did it in 1:09.4!
Quote: ahiromuNice little stat there. That's crazy. I took a look at Secretariat's historic Belmont run and he did it in 1:09.4!
The greatest athletic performance I have ever seen
Quote: speedycrapAOS any insight for Belmont?
I think Justify is tired - however, once they were past the finish line in the Preakness, and Tenfold came eye to eye with him, Justify appeared to re-engage - so, perhaps not as tired as we thought - however, this will be his 6th race in 122 days - that is a grueling schedule against elite horses -- he will need to pull off wire-to-wire in the Belmont to make it happen and hope he is not caught at the 1/16th pole
While I am cheering for a Triple Crown, I think Justify is vulnerable - although it would not shock me at all if he romps
Quote: aceofspadesI think Justify is tired - however, once they were past the finish line in the Preakness, and Tenfold came eye to eye with him, Justify appeared to re-engage - so, perhaps not as tired as we thought - however, this will be his 6th race in 122 days - that is a grueling schedule against elite horses -- he will need to pull off wire-to-wire in the Belmont to make it happen and hope he is not caught at the 1/16th pole
While I am cheering for a Triple Crown, I think Justify is vulnerable - although it would not shock me at all if he romps
I've never understood this. These are ALL short races. Never more than 2 minutes. This horse will have 21 days to 'recover' from a 2 minute exercise. I can't believe the horse will be tired AT ALL. As a matter of fact, I expect the trainer to be RUNNING the horse at times between now and the Belmont.
By the way, I was a security guard at the 1979 Belmont Stakes, and 'guarded' Spectacular Bid. As he finished a disappointing 3rd, they may have wanted me to guard Coastal instead.
Quote: SOOPOOI've never understood this. These are ALL short races. Never more than 2 minutes. This horse will have 21 days to 'recover' from a 2 minute exercise. I can't believe the horse will be tired AT ALL. As a matter of fact, I expect the trainer to be RUNNING the horse at times between now and the Belmont.
By the way, I was a security guard at the 1979 Belmont Stakes, and 'guarded' Spectacular Bid. As he finished a disappointing 3rd, they may have wanted me to guard Coastal instead.
It's the nature of the beast, literally, these days - elite thoroughbreds, these days, typically have 6-8 weeks between starts - while that may not have been the case decades ago, it certainly now -- I analogize it to pitch counts in baseball - different game these days than it once was
Good articles about this:
https://thehorse.com/149339/why-are-american-thoroughbreds-racing-less-frequently/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/othersports/a-fortnights-rest-is-often-not-enough-these-days-which-hurts-the-preakness-field/2014/05/12/f950d0bc-d9d2-11e3-bda1-9b46b2066796_story.html?utm_term=.90cb9393146c
Quote: SOOPOOI've never understood this. These are ALL short races. Never more than 2 minutes. This horse will have 21 days to 'recover' from a 2 minute exercise. I can't believe the horse will be tired AT ALL. As a matter of fact, I expect the trainer to be RUNNING the horse at times between now and the Belmont.
By the way, I was a security guard at the 1979 Belmont Stakes, and 'guarded' Spectacular Bid. As he finished a disappointing 3rd, they may have wanted me to guard Coastal instead.
Not your fault. Ronnie Franklin was 19 and Buddy Delp wanted to replace him on Spectacular Bid, but the owner over-ruled him.
Ronnie was fined for a fight in jockey's room 3 days before the Belmont. 9 days after he was arrested for possession of cocaine outside Disneyland. He battled addiction again and again until his license was revoked. at age 33, when most jockeys hit their prime. Was working with horses in California until diagnosed with lung cancer. Come back to Baltimore for treatment, died earlier this year At age 58. .
I did get a hot tip about a possible runner to look out for in the Belmont...
Firecracker Red is on a heater right now:
Brisnet PPs:
http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/BelmontStakes18.pdf
Quote: aceofspadesI think Justify is tired - however, once they were past the finish line in the Preakness, and Tenfold came eye to eye with him, Justify appeared to re-engage - so, perhaps not as tired as we thought - however, this will be his 6th race in 122 days - that is a grueling schedule against elite horses -- he will need to pull off wire-to-wire in the Belmont to make it happen and hope he is not caught at the 1/16th pole
While I am cheering for a Triple Crown, I think Justify is vulnerable - although it would not shock me at all if he romps
Now that's the way to answer a question. If he wins, you are right. If he loses...you are right. Great answer!
That's how you answer the question.
Quote: vegasNow that's the way to answer a question. If he wins, you are right. If he loses...you are right. Great answer!
Best of both worlds
Quote: FinsRuleIf it stays dry, he wins.
That's how you answer the question.
Rain in the forecast for Saturday in NY
Noble Indy (from the outside) will be the rabbit trying to extend Justify early (who will go to the lead from the rail with a clean break). Some the other longer distance bred runners will then have an opportunity to win the Belmont. Vino Rosso, Free Drop Billy, Hofburg...
Quote: KeeneoneMy quick fire rapid handicapping projection:
Noble Indy (from the outside) will be the rabbit trying to extend Justify early (who will go to the lead from the rail with a clean break). Some the other longer distance bred runners will then have an opportunity to win the Belmont. Vino Rosso, Free Drop Billy, Hofburg...
I always worry about rabbits - what if the rabbit can win the race - does the jock pull him up if Justify is 2nd at the 1/8th pole?
Quote: aceofspadesI always worry about rabbits - what if the rabbit can win the race - does the jock pull him up if Justify is 2nd at the 1/8th pole?
No, the jockey tries to carry on and win the race.
Is this race, I personally see no way Noble Indy wins @ 1.5 miles. Repole has an ownership interest in both Vino Rosso and Noble Indy. Noble Indy could be asked for early speed from his outside post to maintain an honest pace. Noble Indy's best races have occurred when he was on the lead after the second call.
Every horse is entered to win (if you ask ownership).
114 S.A. Derby then 102 KY Derby then 98 Preakness
it's hard to say how meaningful that it is because of the slop
he's also had slow finishes and the finish is most critical in the Belmont because by the time they hit the stretch many are going to be worn out
so I would say he's vulnerable. but I don't know who to pick against him. none of them really impress me
so I would say there is a possibility of a shocker by a shot but I don't know which one. maybe one or two is maturing and improving
interesting article by DRF's Watchmaker on Justify's slow Beyer in the Preakness:
"As tremendous as Justify is, his Preakness was slow. It was historically slow. It was, to be precise, the slowest Preakness in terms of Beyer Figures since Preakness Beyers were first made available to the public in 1991."
http://www.drf.com/news/watchmaker-beyers-tell-slowing-story-justify
Quote: KeeneoneNo, the jockey tries to carry on and win the race.
Is this race, I personally see no way Noble Indy wins @ 1.5 miles. Repole has an ownership interest in both Vino Rosso and Noble Indy. Noble Indy could be asked for early speed from his outside post to maintain an honest pace. Noble Indy's best races have occurred when he was on the lead after the second call.
Every horse is entered to win (if you ask ownership).
Noble Indy is also owned by Winstar, the part owner of Justify. These part ownership groups are really muddling things.
Quote: speedycrapAOS, whAt is your opinion please??
Justify
Hofburg
Barazo
