DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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November 26th, 2016 at 7:06:17 AM permalink
Yes, it is that time. I hope this thread will mostly involve information, opinions, and discussion contributed by others not known to be DrawingDead.

While fixed odds future wagers have been available from some Las Vegas venues for a while, Pool #1 of Churchill Downs' parimutual Kentucky Derby future wager has been open for a couple of days, and will remain open for wagering until tomorrow (Sunday - 11/27) at 6PM ET (3 PM Pacific). With this parimutual wager one should expect the odds to be primarily determined by a late flow of money into the pool in the final hour before it closes.

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/derby-pool-1

Two juvenile stakes races today with potential significance for this are the Remsen at Aqueduct (race #8 @3:20PM ET) and the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill (race #11 @5:56PM ET). But Churchill has conjured up a day long thunderstorm of juveniles again this year, with an entire card comprised exclusively of races for 2 year olds.

I am mostly interested in a Kiaran McLaughlin's colt Takaful (by Bernardini - out of a Distorted Humor mare) making only his second start in the Remsen, and a Steve Asmussen colt in a maiden race on the undercard at Churchill also making making his 2nd lifetime start. I thought I was clever getting on board with Takaful before his first-out maiden breaking win and could keep feeling that way for a while longer. But then the Remsen entries came out. While making his first try at a route, doing so in stakes company, with a sprint win in a maiden race being his only experience ever leaving the barn to go to the track in the afternoon to compete with others, he's listed at 7:5 in the morning line for today's race. Which usually means a horse will go to post at something near even money at AQU. Harrumph. This is not the kind of circumstance where I want to take a heavy (under 2:1) favorite, especially in a full field of ten volatile two year olds.

My AWD calculations for some of the Remsen entries: Hookup 7.3f, Takaful 7.4f, Mo Town 7.1f, No Dozing 7.3f. And in the KJC: Wild Shot 7.3f, Just Move On 7.0, McCraken 7.2f, Uncontested 6.8f.

EDIT: And neither of the two that I mentioned I was most interested in seeing today won their race, while both did 'hit the board' in the money.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Nov 26, 2016
Nevermind.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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December 13th, 2016 at 4:07:39 PM permalink
McCracken.
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
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December 13th, 2016 at 7:50:49 PM permalink
this would go under gambling not handicapping
get second you pig
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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December 26th, 2016 at 12:53:34 PM permalink
There's a horse named beach bum. What are the odds? Might be a sentimental favorite.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
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December 26th, 2016 at 1:15:17 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

There's a horse named beach bum. What are the odds? Might be a sentimental favorite.


Awwww....probably some old nag. ;-)
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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December 26th, 2016 at 6:11:56 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Awwww....probably some old nag. ;-)

Lmao. You wait until Ol Beach Bum has his baby with Shacklefords Lady, then what name will it be. Shackelfords Beach I'm guessing.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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February 7th, 2017 at 11:12:31 PM permalink
El Areeb is either a dark horse or a dead duck. They say he's racing in NY in weak competition.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power/2017_Kentucky_Derby_El_Areeb_Pedigree_Profile_123#

I'm almost sold by TVGs young host who speculates "speed on top, stamina on bottom". Reading the link above seeing his dimensions are very similar to his father's and learning his father was very much the same fading in distance, it's discouraging. Young host did mention horses like American Pharoah have been stamina on top from male side and speed on bottom from mare side. Superficially seems like bad news coming. That's why the experts aren't putting him on their lists yet until they see him perform distance. He wont race before the next betting round pool 3.

They're saying good things about Gunnerva. Same young host predicts today he'll be a good superfecta pick in the derby.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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February 7th, 2017 at 11:38:11 PM permalink
Classic Empire, everyone will be watching derby day for him acting up. Possible he might repeat the antics before the derby and win anyways confusing the issue. Irish War Cry definitely moved up in value beating him. You'll have to keep an eye on him.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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Thanks for this post from:
RisingDough
February 8th, 2017 at 2:44:56 AM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

this would go under gambling not handicapping




I've been trying to explain to my other half for years that when I play the horses I'm not gambling. I've also described it as investing in a different kind of stock and speculating. I've compared it to running a small business. She hasn't been real impressed with my explanations.
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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March 5th, 2017 at 5:47:11 PM permalink
Forgot to play Gunnevera yesterday and in the last derby pool. He might be the one. We'll see. Heard some chatter about Lliad, but nothing for a while.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!

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