Yes, it is that time. I hope this thread will mostly involve information, opinions, and discussion contributed by others not known to be DrawingDead.
While fixed odds future wagers have been available from some Las Vegas venues for a while, Pool #1 of Churchill Downs' parimutual Kentucky Derby future wager has been open for a couple of days, and will remain open for wagering until tomorrow (Sunday - 11/27) at 6PM ET (3 PM Pacific). With this parimutual wager one should expect the odds to be primarily determined by a late flow of money into the pool in the final hour before it closes.https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/derby-pool-1
Two juvenile stakes races today with potential significance for this are the Remsen at Aqueduct (race #8 @3:20PM ET) and the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill (race #11 @5:56PM ET). But Churchill has conjured up a day long thunderstorm of juveniles again this year, with an entire card comprised exclusively of races for 2 year olds.
I am mostly interested in a Kiaran McLaughlin's colt Takaful (by Bernardini - out of a Distorted Humor mare) making only his second start in the Remsen, and a Steve Asmussen colt in a maiden race on the undercard at Churchill also making making his 2nd lifetime start. I thought I was clever getting on board with Takaful before his first-out maiden breaking win and could keep feeling that way for a while longer. But then the Remsen entries came out. While making his first try at a route, doing so in stakes company, with a sprint win in a maiden race being his only experience ever leaving the barn to go to the track in the afternoon to compete with others, he's listed at 7:5 in the morning line for today's race. Which usually means a horse will go to post at something near even money at AQU. Harrumph. This is not the kind of circumstance where I want to take a heavy (under 2:1) favorite, especially in a full field of ten volatile two year olds.
My AWD calculations for some of the Remsen entries: Hookup 7.3f, Takaful 7.4f, Mo Town 7.1f, No Dozing 7.3f. And in the KJC: Wild Shot 7.3f, Just Move On 7.0, McCraken 7.2f, Uncontested 6.8f.
EDIT: And neither of the two that I mentioned I was most interested in seeing today won their race, while both did 'hit the board' in the money.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Nov 26, 2016
“I've had many years that I was not so successful as a player, as it is a game of skill.” -Casey Stengel