2017 KY Derby & Triple Crown contenders
May 18th, 2017 at 4:32:02 PM
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It was fun getting to watch Timeline in the Peter Pan. When I saw him open at 1/9 I immediately left the sportsbook and went home to watch the race. He will definitely be one to consider in the Belmont stakes.
Great breakdown on the Man o' War by DD. Zhukova certainly has the look of a great turf runner. After the early scratches I also passed on the race.
Both runners were heavy favorites. But they were very logical favorites (after analysis) and the kind you do not try to beat. Hard to make any money on win bets...
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The Preakness Daily Racing Form pps are available here:
http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=PIM&country=USA&raceDate=20170520&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=13#past-performance-race/13
Sad to have Royal Mo hurt in a training breeze. Looks like he will survive after surgery on his ankle. I am likely passing on the Pimlico races this weekend. I just have no strong opinion in the Pim Special, the Black Eyed Susan, or the Preakness. AD has the look of a favorite (like Timeline and Zhukova last weekend) you do not try and beat right now...
Great breakdown on the Man o' War by DD. Zhukova certainly has the look of a great turf runner. After the early scratches I also passed on the race.
Both runners were heavy favorites. But they were very logical favorites (after analysis) and the kind you do not try to beat. Hard to make any money on win bets...
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The Preakness Daily Racing Form pps are available here:
http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=PIM&country=USA&raceDate=20170520&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=13#past-performance-race/13
Sad to have Royal Mo hurt in a training breeze. Looks like he will survive after surgery on his ankle. I am likely passing on the Pimlico races this weekend. I just have no strong opinion in the Pim Special, the Black Eyed Susan, or the Preakness. AD has the look of a favorite (like Timeline and Zhukova last weekend) you do not try and beat right now...
May 18th, 2017 at 5:48:40 PM
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To the best of my knowledge, Time Line isn't even being considered to run in the Belmont. Pretty sure what I heard was the connections didn't feel he was suited to run a mile and a half.
I am a robot.
May 18th, 2017 at 6:05:01 PM
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Quote: onenickelmiracleTo the best of my knowledge, Time Line isn't even being considered to run in the Belmont. Pretty sure what I heard was the connections didn't feel he was suited to run a mile and a half.
I should have added "if he runs" in the Belmont Stakes. But based on DD's excellent breakdown of Timeline's pedigree I am just not buying his trainer's (C. Brown) recent comments. There are numerous reasons not to run him, but I am not buying distance limitations as an issue. The composition of the Belmont field (post Preakness) is likely a main reason to "wait and see".
May 18th, 2017 at 6:54:33 PM
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After the Peter Pan, Chad Brown has been quoted as now targeting the Haskell for Timeline, with one race in either the Easy Goer, the Dwyer, or the Pegasus before then. He's talking about running Take Your Guns, who finished a distant 4th in the Peter Pan, in the Belmont Stakes. That's what the man was said to have said, according to some of the racing press a day after the race.
EDIT to add: Not really what I was expecting to hear, and I got the impression the racing writers asking him about it may have been mildly surprised by the tentative post-race plans too.
*shrug*
RE-EDIT: After winning the Man O' War the connections of Zhukova made it clear that part of their reason for shipping across the pond (before almost immediately returning with her to Ireland) was to punch her ticket for running in the Breeders' Cup.
EDIT to add: Not really what I was expecting to hear, and I got the impression the racing writers asking him about it may have been mildly surprised by the tentative post-race plans too.
*shrug*
RE-EDIT: After winning the Man O' War the connections of Zhukova made it clear that part of their reason for shipping across the pond (before almost immediately returning with her to Ireland) was to punch her ticket for running in the Breeders' Cup.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on May 18, 2017
Nothing to read here. Move along.
May 18th, 2017 at 10:46:51 PM
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Everywhere I seem to look, the people that have seen Gunnevera are saying physically he looks great. Might be the paddock pick.
I am a robot.
May 19th, 2017 at 2:21:19 AM
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I'm wondering about taking Lookin at Lee and Gunnevera, maybe Multiplier on top, putting as many horses underneath as you can. Term of art and Senior investment can be thrown out of the trifectas pretty confidently. BBB mentioned CMM, CE, GUNNEVERA, AD, and it's a very typical comment, enough to scare me that it can't be right because ive seen it at a few places. It could happen, just saying seems the obvious, the common knowledge is usually wrong. You have to figure out where the chinks in the armor are. I am a little less confident doubting AD and GUNNEVERA lately though. Just am not sure who'll disappoint.
I am a robot.
May 19th, 2017 at 2:45:19 AM
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Probably should start another thread, but since this one's still going I'll put this here.
I like Always Dreaming, haven't seen anything that would make the Preakness less favorable for him.
Classic Empire should improve but I don't think he will have enough to beat AD. I actually think CE and AD are equally matched, but I have to give the edge to Velazquez over Leparoux.
1. Always Dreaming
2. Classic Empire
3. Hence
4. Conquest Mo Money
That's my Superfecta, with Hence and CMM being boxed. GLTA.
I like Always Dreaming, haven't seen anything that would make the Preakness less favorable for him.
Classic Empire should improve but I don't think he will have enough to beat AD. I actually think CE and AD are equally matched, but I have to give the edge to Velazquez over Leparoux.
1. Always Dreaming
2. Classic Empire
3. Hence
4. Conquest Mo Money
That's my Superfecta, with Hence and CMM being boxed. GLTA.
May 19th, 2017 at 3:00:57 AM
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It's all about the track at derby day and the way the collision affected so many horses. The new shooters aren't too shabby, at least a few, so that's going to impact the race. I'm not going to believe it if he wins and you wont believe it if he doesn't.Quote: JyBrd0403Probably should start another thread, but since this one's still going I'll put this here.
I like Always Dreaming, haven't seen anything that would make the Preakness less favorable for him.
Classic Empire should improve but I don't think he will have enough to beat AD. I actually think CE and AD are equally matched, but I have to give the edge to Velazquez over Leparoux.
1. Always Dreaming
2. Classic Empire
3. Hence
4. Conquest Mo Money
That's my Superfecta, with Hence and CMM being boxed. GLTA.
I am a robot.
May 19th, 2017 at 3:39:11 AM
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Don't feel constrained by the title I gave the thread. I was too specific, and probably should have called it something broader like "2017 KY Derby & Triple Crown contenders." Since in the past these threads started out with some speculation in the Derby futures, through the preps and the race at Churchill, and naturally continued as far as the Belmont, with other racing chatter along the way usually also including some talk about the Oaks and the filly series, before conking out as the potential Breeders' Cup fields became a new topic for people with an interest in the sport.Quote: JyBrd0403Probably should start another thread, but since this one's still going I'll put this here. ...<SNIP>...
The post-Derby/pre-Preakness odds I've seen on the Triple Crown prop bet were running about +300 to +350 for "yes" and -500 and up for "no." But that was as of last week, and I haven't yet been comparing lines at multiple venues for it this year.
Nothing to read here. Move along.
May 19th, 2017 at 3:46:32 AM
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I have been thinking of a few threads for horseracing, one for general questions and observations, one for interesting stories or races, horses to watch, something like that.
I am a robot.
May 19th, 2017 at 4:47:27 AM
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on the undercard race #9, the maryland sprint, Whitmore is 9/5 on the morning line. he was a disaster in last year's Derby and got turned into an impressive sprinter having won 4 in a row. only one was a graded stakes, a G3. A.P. Indian is listed at 8/5 and has much more graded stakes experience. he's 7 years old. i'm hoping the class devotees will overbet the Indian and leave me Whitmore at about 3/1. then i'll get interested and jump on his back.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 19th, 2017 at 6:10:18 AM
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Quote: onenickelmiracleI'm wondering about taking Lookin at Lee and Gunnevera, maybe Multiplier on top, putting as many horses underneath as you can. Term of art and Senior investment can be thrown out of the trifectas pretty confidently. BBB mentioned CMM, CE, GUNNEVERA, AD, and it's a very typical comment, enough to scare me that it can't be right because ive seen it at a few places. It could happen, just saying seems the obvious, the common knowledge is usually wrong. You have to figure out where the chinks in the armor are. I am a little less confident doubting AD and GUNNEVERA lately though. Just am not sure who'll disappoint.
I'm a total ploppie when it comes to handicapping horses. But a lucky one. I don't always get the urge, but the force is strong enough on this one, I'm going down to the local track to bet it.
Quote: DDDon't feel constrained by the title I gave the thread. I was too specific, and probably should have called it something broader like "2017 KY Derby & Triple Crown contenders."
Amended title for you.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
May 19th, 2017 at 3:08:08 PM
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I've lost faith in Conquest Mo Money. I am convinced he will not hold up, thinking Lookin at Lee, Gunnevera , Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, in no particular order, but leaning towards the closers. Honorable mention, Multiplier and Cloud Computing.
Embarrassed I was ready to pick Actress in the Black Eyed Susan and ploppied to Yorkiepoo Princess. Felt so weary, Yorkiepoo Princess was totally ignored everywhere, seriously doubted the horse seeing the odds climbing so, but never changed my bet. I'd say the temptation to change my bet was severely extreme, but don't like cancelling my bets. Had Actress and Corporate Queen for show bets, made overall on the race, but felt terrible seeing $200 win the race and not mine.
As it would turn out, impulse bet Look Who's Talking #10 in race 12, and #11 won at 24/1, That's Too much. Oh the cruel Irony.
As far as the Preakness goes, I'm either going to bet the closers, Gunnevera and/or Lookin at Lee to win and that's it. It's a total flip flop, but the information about the swell appearance of Gunnevera means a lot to sway me. He might have the kick I didn't think he'd have.
Embarrassed I was ready to pick Actress in the Black Eyed Susan and ploppied to Yorkiepoo Princess. Felt so weary, Yorkiepoo Princess was totally ignored everywhere, seriously doubted the horse seeing the odds climbing so, but never changed my bet. I'd say the temptation to change my bet was severely extreme, but don't like cancelling my bets. Had Actress and Corporate Queen for show bets, made overall on the race, but felt terrible seeing $200 win the race and not mine.
As it would turn out, impulse bet Look Who's Talking #10 in race 12, and #11 won at 24/1, That's Too much. Oh the cruel Irony.
As far as the Preakness goes, I'm either going to bet the closers, Gunnevera and/or Lookin at Lee to win and that's it. It's a total flip flop, but the information about the swell appearance of Gunnevera means a lot to sway me. He might have the kick I didn't think he'd have.
I am a robot.
May 19th, 2017 at 3:13:53 PM
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Oh by the way, I'm growing a goatee with mustache suddenly. Todd Pletcher wears a goatee, could it mean Im in denial about Always Dreaming. Things might be looking better for Always Dreaming than I admit.
I am a robot.
May 19th, 2017 at 5:25:22 PM
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10/4,5 was Matt Carouther's $2 dd pick on tvg which might have driven down odds on Always Dreaming and Classic Empire.Quote: drf.comBALTIMORE Always Dreaming accounts for the lowest will-pay in the daily double linking the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes and the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. A $2 wager with the Black-Eyed Susan winner, Actress, with Always Dreaming will return $68.80. All-sources handle on the two-day wager was $777,599, up 4 percent from last year.
$2 double will-pays ACTRESS (10) with:
1. Multiplier, $539.20
2. Cloud Computing, $368.80
3. Hence, $576.40
4. Always Dreaming, $68.80
5. Classic Empire, $85.20
6. Gunnevera, $300.40
7. Term of Art, $2,600.20
8. Senior Investment, $1,573.80
9. Lookin At Lee, $406.20
10. Conquest Mo Money, $309.00
I am a robot.
May 19th, 2017 at 6:27:31 PM
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Eddie O was on the 10, so I did a $1 DD - 5, 7, 10 / 4, 5, 6, 10 = $12
Of course now I'm wishing I did it for $2, but that's how it always goes.
I'm still deciding if I'm going to play a trifecta or not. I just don't think anyone will be able to close to win. I'm kinda just thinking about:
$.50 Trifecta - 4, 5, 10 / 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10 = $45
The issue with this bet is that if Always Dreaming wins, the bet will either lose a little money or maybe win a couple of bucks. So it's possible I just go with the 2 most likely to beat him and do: 5, 10 / 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10 = $30
If Always Dreaming wins then at least I end up being close to even with the double paying.
Have fun everyone!
Of course now I'm wishing I did it for $2, but that's how it always goes.
I'm still deciding if I'm going to play a trifecta or not. I just don't think anyone will be able to close to win. I'm kinda just thinking about:
$.50 Trifecta - 4, 5, 10 / 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10 = $45
The issue with this bet is that if Always Dreaming wins, the bet will either lose a little money or maybe win a couple of bucks. So it's possible I just go with the 2 most likely to beat him and do: 5, 10 / 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10 = $30
If Always Dreaming wins then at least I end up being close to even with the double paying.
Have fun everyone!
May 19th, 2017 at 8:03:19 PM
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in the Preakness the 4 and 5 have shown their a cut above the others.....of the newcomers I like the 1 as an improver.....i'll play some small supers keying these three but I hope always dreaming wins by many so there will be great value against him in the Belmont.
get second you pig
May 19th, 2017 at 8:34:15 PM
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Is there a Corey Lanerie type jockey, very knowledgeable and successful at Pimlico. and which Jockey would they be good friends with, that is also in the Preakness.
I am a robot.
May 19th, 2017 at 11:50:22 PM
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I think I literally forgot Hence was in the race. Was thinking Cloud Computing was 3, didn't realize he was 2. Hope I didn't write them down wrong, will never reverse the list again regardless. I think I've learned very little about the race past the surface, it's basically useless info.Quote: onenickelmiraclePost positions:
10. CONQUEST MO MONEY
9. LOOKIN AT LEE
8. SENIOR INVESTMENT
7. TERM OF ART
6. GUNNEVERA
5. CLASSIC EMPIRE
4 . ALWAYS DREAMING
3 HENCE
2. CLOUD COMPUTING
1. MULTIPLIER
I am a robot.
May 20th, 2017 at 12:18:18 AM
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How do these payoffs translate from to win odds? If Always Dreaming was 4/5, Gunnevera 15/1, realize it's pari-mutuel based, but the payoffs are not 19 times difference, the holds on doubles are more, seems off though.Quote: onenickelmiracle10/4,5 was Matt Carouther's $2 dd pick on tvg which might have driven down odds on Always Dreaming and Classic Empire.Quote: drf.comBALTIMORE Always Dreaming accounts for the lowest will-pay in the daily double linking the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes and the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. A $2 wager with the Black-Eyed Susan winner, Actress, with Always Dreaming will return $68.80. All-sources handle on the two-day wager was $777,599, up 4 percent from last year.
$2 double will-pays ACTRESS (10) with:
1. Multiplier, $539.20
2. Cloud Computing, $368.80
3. Hence, $576.40
4. Always Dreaming, $68.80
5. Classic Empire, $85.20
6. Gunnevera, $300.40
7. Term of Art, $2,600.20
8. Senior Investment, $1,573.80
9. Lookin At Lee, $406.20
10. Conquest Mo Money, $309.00
I am a robot.
May 20th, 2017 at 1:26:20 AM
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onenickelmiracle How do these payoffs translate from to win odds? If Always Dreaming was 4/5, Gunnevera 15/1, realize it's pari-mutuel based, but the payoffs are not 19 times difference, the holds on doubles are more, seems off though.
the daily double payouts are often way off from what the actual (1st race) and morning line odds (2nd race) imply that they should be. the daily double IMO represents the best chance, far better than the exacta payouts, to try to get a purely mathematical edge at the track. i haven't followed it closely so i'm not sure now but when i did follow it it used to be difficult because the approximate payouts were not always there on the screens to see. maybe they are now i'm not sure. this kind of strategy is not for me but i can't knock it. this is one way to find a good bet in the double from somebody's blog. THE CALCULATION THEY MAKE IGNORES THE TRACK TAKEOUT ON THE WIN BETS PAYOUT SO IT IS NOT AS GREAT A BET AS IS IMPLIED. the calculation makes the assumption that the win pool is an efficient market and that the double pool is not. also, if this is going to be useful it will be useful at big tracks only because the estimated payouts are going to fluctuate wildly at small tracks and late betting will make it all but impossible to get an efficient bet down. and the big tracks offer much more efficient markets then the small tracks which will make finding an edge difficult. the best chance to find an edge will be where both races feature large fields which will increase variance. to summarize: this may be an occasionally useful strategy but there are many caveats to consider. but nonetheless it is a fair way to compare a double payout to win bets payouts:
"Double payoffs are, far more often than not, solid overlay wagers. We consider
the Double payoff to be an overlay if the payoff is higher than what you would
have received for a straight two race win bet parlay. For example, lets say the
winner of the first leg paid $10 to win and the winner of the second leg paid $8
to win. If you bet $2 on the winner of the first leg, you would receive a $10
payoff. In a parlay, you would then wager the $10 on the second race. If you bet
on the winner of the second race, you win the $8 payoff five times. Hence, the
parlay paid $40. If the Double combination on these two horses pays more than
$40, it is an overlay. If it pays $44, it is a 10% overlay. If it pays $50, it is a 25%
overlay."
the daily double payouts are often way off from what the actual (1st race) and morning line odds (2nd race) imply that they should be. the daily double IMO represents the best chance, far better than the exacta payouts, to try to get a purely mathematical edge at the track. i haven't followed it closely so i'm not sure now but when i did follow it it used to be difficult because the approximate payouts were not always there on the screens to see. maybe they are now i'm not sure. this kind of strategy is not for me but i can't knock it. this is one way to find a good bet in the double from somebody's blog. THE CALCULATION THEY MAKE IGNORES THE TRACK TAKEOUT ON THE WIN BETS PAYOUT SO IT IS NOT AS GREAT A BET AS IS IMPLIED. the calculation makes the assumption that the win pool is an efficient market and that the double pool is not. also, if this is going to be useful it will be useful at big tracks only because the estimated payouts are going to fluctuate wildly at small tracks and late betting will make it all but impossible to get an efficient bet down. and the big tracks offer much more efficient markets then the small tracks which will make finding an edge difficult. the best chance to find an edge will be where both races feature large fields which will increase variance. to summarize: this may be an occasionally useful strategy but there are many caveats to consider. but nonetheless it is a fair way to compare a double payout to win bets payouts:
"Double payoffs are, far more often than not, solid overlay wagers. We consider
the Double payoff to be an overlay if the payoff is higher than what you would
have received for a straight two race win bet parlay. For example, lets say the
winner of the first leg paid $10 to win and the winner of the second leg paid $8
to win. If you bet $2 on the winner of the first leg, you would receive a $10
payoff. In a parlay, you would then wager the $10 on the second race. If you bet
on the winner of the second race, you win the $8 payoff five times. Hence, the
parlay paid $40. If the Double combination on these two horses pays more than
$40, it is an overlay. If it pays $44, it is a 10% overlay. If it pays $50, it is a 25%
overlay."
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 20, 2017
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 20th, 2017 at 4:27:08 AM
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The takeout on a double is more than a win, but less than a parlay would be. So a parlay should always pay worse than a double does.
To me, this means that Always Dreaming is going off at even money or 6/5, not 4/5. Classic Empire is going to be 2/1 or 5/2, not 3/1.
Gunnevera, Conquest, Lookin, Cloud Computing should all be closely bunched between 10/1 - 12/1.
To me, this means that Always Dreaming is going off at even money or 6/5, not 4/5. Classic Empire is going to be 2/1 or 5/2, not 3/1.
Gunnevera, Conquest, Lookin, Cloud Computing should all be closely bunched between 10/1 - 12/1.
May 20th, 2017 at 5:22:55 AM
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Quote: FinsRuleThe takeout on a double is more than a win, but less than a parlay would be.
less than a parlay but still huge. at churchill the takeout on the DD is 22%.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 20, 2017
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 20th, 2017 at 6:40:01 AM
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22% is criminal. I'm guessing Pimlico is less.
May 20th, 2017 at 7:09:25 AM
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Quote: FinsRule22% is criminal. I'm guessing Pimlico is less.
you guessed right. only 21%.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 20th, 2017 at 10:08:19 AM
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Quote: Matt Bernier odds
1. Multiplier 24/1
2. Cloud Computing 6/1
3. Hence 24/1
4. Always Dreaming 5/2
5. Classic Empire 7/2
6. Gunnevera 13/1
7. Term of Art 49/1
8. Senior investment 49/1
9. Lookin at Lee 12/1
10. Conquest Mo Money 12/1
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UEmczczj0A0
I am a robot.
May 20th, 2017 at 1:15:54 PM
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Quote: lilredroosterHere is the last verse to "Maryland my Maryland" which is sung just before the Preakness.
Maryland!
The Old Line's bugle, fife, and drum,
Maryland!
She is not dead, nor deaf, nor dumb-
Huzza! she spurns the NORTHERN SCUM!
She breathes! she burns! she'll come! she'll come!
Maryland! My Maryland!
sorry Yanks. No hard feelings.
anyway they omit singing that verse because of the controversy surrounding it.
love the 2nd to last line "She breathes! she burns! she'll come! she'll come!"
of course she'll come. Maryland boys know how to bada bada bing!
Seeing how Maryland never left the Union , that's a very curious verse.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 20th, 2017 at 1:26:14 PM
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Yes, the tiny little rump of what's left of Pimlico pretending to put on a race meet, with a 12 day token schedule in order to hang on to the Preakness for the time being, has above average takeout rates overall to start with. And then generally the closer you get to the functional equivalent of buying lottery tickets, the less price-elastic the demand for them gets, and so with multi-race or multi-horse wagers the takeout generally gets higher as the number of events or entrants that must be selected increases. "Hey, if'n I hit dat sucker, I'll be stinkin' rich, so who cares? Gahmbooool, baby!"
But, there are anomalies here and there across the continent bucking that strong general propensity to be most price-conscious, with the lowest takeout rates, in the most straightforward wagering formats. For example, in the chart of takeout rates I have in front of me Sam Houston has a takeout of 12% on doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, and pick-5s, while having a high takeout of 18% up to 25% for less exotic wagers. Lone Star also has a strangely inverted, but different, scale of takeouts. Woodbine has a takeout on doubles of 15%, so on that they hold not much more than their sub-15% straight wager rate that also has lower "breakage" than many tracks. But they only do that for doubles while jacking it up to confiscatory rates for other multi-race wagers. The NYRA tracks are a little eccentric in having an exotic wager takeout of 15% only in their most massively multi-race options of pick-5 and pick-6, with higher rates for mere doubles and pick-3s. Of course everything connected with Churchill sucks eggs, as they shamelessly milk their control of their signature event. I'm waiting for those clowns to announce a resort fee for the standing-room crowd lining up to piss in the porta-potties in the infield on Derby weekend. And a Millinery Inspection Service Fee for the wearing of fruit salad buffets as headgear.
But on that other thing, I'm pretty sure you and that Santa Anita trifecta luckbox co-conspirator friend of yours with the impeccable dental hygiene in the gloating selfie at the '15 Breeders' Cup used up every last bit of your fair share of horsey luck, plus borrowing about another ten years worth. But good luck.
I am guaranteed to have results that "beat the rake" so to speak. Because I'm not betting in this thing in Baltimore. Me likey Belmont Park.
But, there are anomalies here and there across the continent bucking that strong general propensity to be most price-conscious, with the lowest takeout rates, in the most straightforward wagering formats. For example, in the chart of takeout rates I have in front of me Sam Houston has a takeout of 12% on doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, and pick-5s, while having a high takeout of 18% up to 25% for less exotic wagers. Lone Star also has a strangely inverted, but different, scale of takeouts. Woodbine has a takeout on doubles of 15%, so on that they hold not much more than their sub-15% straight wager rate that also has lower "breakage" than many tracks. But they only do that for doubles while jacking it up to confiscatory rates for other multi-race wagers. The NYRA tracks are a little eccentric in having an exotic wager takeout of 15% only in their most massively multi-race options of pick-5 and pick-6, with higher rates for mere doubles and pick-3s. Of course everything connected with Churchill sucks eggs, as they shamelessly milk their control of their signature event. I'm waiting for those clowns to announce a resort fee for the standing-room crowd lining up to piss in the porta-potties in the infield on Derby weekend. And a Millinery Inspection Service Fee for the wearing of fruit salad buffets as headgear.
Thanks.Quote: beachbumbabsAmended title for you.
But on that other thing, I'm pretty sure you and that Santa Anita trifecta luckbox co-conspirator friend of yours with the impeccable dental hygiene in the gloating selfie at the '15 Breeders' Cup used up every last bit of your fair share of horsey luck, plus borrowing about another ten years worth. But good luck.
I am guaranteed to have results that "beat the rake" so to speak. Because I'm not betting in this thing in Baltimore. Me likey Belmont Park.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on May 20, 2017
Nothing to read here. Move along.
May 20th, 2017 at 2:07:49 PM
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Looks straight om paper, but they run on the track Always Dreaming or Classic, nobody else figures to win. Coming on Lee to close for third. With odds should be CE,AD, COL in that order. Bet it straigt win exacta or Tri Screw all those combos Wht give the rake more than one bite if the apple Bet Win, Ex or Tri
May 20th, 2017 at 2:19:54 PM
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It just got curiouser and then downright odd when I Googled it. While it was sung as a battle cry by supporters of the Confederacy, the relatively innocuous (or perhaps just inscrutable) third verse of it is sung at the Preakness by the United States Naval Academy Glee Club. And the lyrics are set to the tune of "O Tannenbaum" of all things. So, avenge that vandal tyrant Lincoln, and Merry Christmas! Sir!Quote: billryanSeeing how Maryland never left the Union , that's a very curious verse.
Nothing to read here. Move along.
May 20th, 2017 at 2:27:32 PM
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Why do we need a 2 hour broadcast a 2 minute race? Seriously, nobody cares about anything else.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
May 20th, 2017 at 5:55:32 PM
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Cloud Computing !!!! Hope this helped people, it helped me. Large win for a small bet, the Pegasus curse is in effect. I was the only one at the track yelling Cloud Computing. I'm happy with the race. Had thought my friend's dad played $5 trifecta box 2,5,8. Turned out it was $1 box, he was going to not play it, but I said hold on, his son had $1 and the bet was made. Turned out he was so happy he gave me a $50(had helped him place his bets, didn't remember this at the time, plus they were betting Preakness picks race 13, but on race 11, before I stopped them). Won the straight bet on Cloud computing, lost the trifecta bet 2,6,9/2,4-6,9/2,4-6,9,10. Bet against Always Dreaming with a forum member, I was scared I'd lose that one very much so, didn't think Always Dreaming would finish like he did, and was scared most of the race, not sure Cloud Computing would even win, but could see it looking good. What a race.Quote: onenickelmiracleQuote: Matt Bernier odds
1. Multiplier 24/1
2. Cloud Computing 6/1
3. Hence 24/1
4. Always Dreaming 5/2
5. Classic Empire 7/2
6. Gunnevera 13/1
7. Term of Art 49/1
8. Senior investment 49/1
9. Lookin at Lee 12/1
10. Conquest Mo Money 12/1
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UEmczczj0A0
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on May 20, 2017
I am a robot.
May 20th, 2017 at 6:09:51 PM
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Two of my friends had Senior Investment and I ridiculed them badly. If I was more confident to bet, I would have played show all, but it wasn't meant to be. I think we're on the money with this thread, not really sure what feedback and ideas I'm actually getting, but it lets me keep my research organized. About betting more, I think Id just bet more possibilities, and not totally bet a higher multiplier, so not sure what good it would do. I'd probably bet twice as much to win three times.
It was so funny, right before the race, a guy came out limping on a cane and missing half his upper teeth, telling everyone how good Always Dreaming was, the second coming of Jesus triple crown winner. He said he knew it after the Florida derby with the fastest time since 1978. Everyone out smoking was like yeah right, just saying uhhuh. He was even saying how he even lent his friend $100 to bet that makes $80,000 a year, because he was so good. As soon as he went back in, I told everyone, I should have told him it was too good to be true and we all laughed.
.
It was so funny, right before the race, a guy came out limping on a cane and missing half his upper teeth, telling everyone how good Always Dreaming was, the second coming of Jesus triple crown winner. He said he knew it after the Florida derby with the fastest time since 1978. Everyone out smoking was like yeah right, just saying uhhuh. He was even saying how he even lent his friend $100 to bet that makes $80,000 a year, because he was so good. As soon as he went back in, I told everyone, I should have told him it was too good to be true and we all laughed.
.
I am a robot.
May 21st, 2017 at 7:56:27 AM
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I didn't see Senior Investment coming, but see him going in the Belmont. Might very well be my top horse there.
I am a robot.
May 21st, 2017 at 5:28:13 PM
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Quote: lilredroosteron the undercard race #9, the maryland sprint, Whitmore is 9/5 on the morning line. he was a disaster in last year's Derby and got turned into an impressive sprinter having won 4 in a row. only one was a graded stakes, a G3. A.P. Indian is listed at 8/5 and has much more graded stakes experience. he's 7 years old. i'm hoping the class devotees will overbet the Indian and leave me Whitmore at about 3/1. then i'll get interested and jump on his back.
You did not get 3/1, but you posted an impressive winner, congrats. Whitmore was carrying 6 lbs over the entire field...
May 21st, 2017 at 8:34:15 PM
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I had futures money on Cloud Computing to win Derby, not Preakness!
Memories of Shackleford winning the Preakness...
Memories of Shackleford winning the Preakness...
May 21st, 2017 at 8:42:30 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleI had futures money on Cloud Computing to win Derby, not Preakness!
Memories of Shackleford winning the Preakness...
I also had CC in my Derby futures stable.
Great Preakness win for CC, J. Castellano, and trainer C. Brown.
Who will run in the Belmont...
May 22nd, 2017 at 12:50:20 AM
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Channing Hill was really optimistic about the Belmont after the Preakness ride on Senior Investment. I have to say that was quite impressive coming out of nowhere. I was sure my trifecta was hitting, then not. He was more than optimistic, I'd say quite extremely enthusiastic, real enthusiasm no doubt.
Gunnevera, almost hate that name by this point, but Mike Smith mentioned how he had the horse "going good then lost his back end and had to get him going again". He said he could have been third, most of the jockeys said that, none tried taking anything away from the top two.
It amazes me, common sense says the shortest path is a straight line, but it doesn't seem to motivate horses. You watch Cloud Computing, he veers towards Classic Empire, and gains speed. Must be true horses get motivated with a challenge. When Cloud Computing bumped Always Dreaming in the Preakness, did they actually touch? Made me wonder if Always Dreaming transferred some momentum to Cloud Computing, because that's when he suddenly took off.
I'm not really sure how much energy I'm going to invest in the Belmont, I'm thinking it's going to be a very tough race to pick.
Gunnevera, almost hate that name by this point, but Mike Smith mentioned how he had the horse "going good then lost his back end and had to get him going again". He said he could have been third, most of the jockeys said that, none tried taking anything away from the top two.
It amazes me, common sense says the shortest path is a straight line, but it doesn't seem to motivate horses. You watch Cloud Computing, he veers towards Classic Empire, and gains speed. Must be true horses get motivated with a challenge. When Cloud Computing bumped Always Dreaming in the Preakness, did they actually touch? Made me wonder if Always Dreaming transferred some momentum to Cloud Computing, because that's when he suddenly took off.
I'm not really sure how much energy I'm going to invest in the Belmont, I'm thinking it's going to be a very tough race to pick.
I am a robot.
May 22nd, 2017 at 2:14:39 AM
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Third time might be the charm for Classic Empire, race composition and post dependent.
I am a robot.
May 22nd, 2017 at 2:23:04 AM
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Senior investment, never got around to too much depth, wish I would have seen this race and that late kick that ruined my trifecta.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fdAHi0RWUnU
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fdAHi0RWUnU
I am a robot.
May 22nd, 2017 at 4:51:59 AM
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Gunnevera bled. I think that cost him 3rd.
May 22nd, 2017 at 4:54:35 AM
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My hot tip for the week:
Friday 5/26 - Arlington Park - Race 4 - #1 Heir Jordan
(I'm part-owner of him, so it's not really a hot tip, just a horse who needs to run well!)
Friday 5/26 - Arlington Park - Race 4 - #1 Heir Jordan
(I'm part-owner of him, so it's not really a hot tip, just a horse who needs to run well!)
May 22nd, 2017 at 5:16:17 AM
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I like odds on the rail, but it's a scary bet on your horse that never has been in the money. I'm tempted to bet prime numbers and 9 in that race and I usually don't do or think that, I dont think.Quote: FinsRuleMy hot tip for the week:
Friday 5/26 - Arlington Park - Race 4 - #1 Heir Jordan
(I'm part-owner of him, so it's not really a hot tip, just a horse who needs to run well!)
I am a robot.
May 23rd, 2017 at 12:11:29 AM
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Always Dreaming and Cloud Computing won't be in the Belmont, Cloud Computing might, but not likely.
I am a robot.
May 23rd, 2017 at 1:54:37 AM
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for many years all my racetrack betting has been done online. very convenient and efficient and cheaper. when you win the money won stays in your account and depending on the book takes 4 to 7 days to be eligible for transfer back to your checking account and then another couple of days for it to actually get in there. then when it does get there it's just numbers on a screen. i feel like this has taken some of the joy out of the game. some of the joy in betting at the track was from actually getting real green money from the teller when you won and putting in your hand and going home. also, there is something to be said for being around other people when you're betting instead of being alone in front of a computer screen. i think i'm going to go back to the track for this reason. i realize that this is not a logical decision. but sometimes a person's feelings win out over logic. i'm wondering if you other guys who bet horses have similar feelings.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 23rd, 2017 at 4:03:00 AM
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Rooster, I agree 100%. I've recently made the decision to decrease my online betting significantly. I'd do a ton of handicapping, make $50 in bets for a Saturday, win $60, and then that $50 is trapped in there for me to lose on bets I didn't really do much thought on.
So I've made the decision, if it's worth me betting my hard earned money on, it's worth me driving 7 minutes to the OTB. That's also the good thing about contests - they'll give you all of your money immediately after winning.
To your other point, I'd go to the track every weekend if I could, but with the little kids, it's just not realistic. So if I'm playing on a Saturday, I'll handicap late Friday or early Saturday when the kids are sleeping. Then go to the OTB pretty early in the day. Then I can watch the 3-4 races I've bet on during the day while being with the kids. A horse race is only 2 minutes, so it doesn't interfere too much.
So I've made the decision, if it's worth me betting my hard earned money on, it's worth me driving 7 minutes to the OTB. That's also the good thing about contests - they'll give you all of your money immediately after winning.
To your other point, I'd go to the track every weekend if I could, but with the little kids, it's just not realistic. So if I'm playing on a Saturday, I'll handicap late Friday or early Saturday when the kids are sleeping. Then go to the OTB pretty early in the day. Then I can watch the 3-4 races I've bet on during the day while being with the kids. A horse race is only 2 minutes, so it doesn't interfere too much.
May 23rd, 2017 at 5:05:18 PM
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Plenty of people toss money around at either place.
I am a robot.
May 24th, 2017 at 7:36:38 PM
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Wish someone would have gone for this or tried negotiating.Quote: onenickelmiracleSounds like a love festival for Always Dreaming
Anyone willing to give me 25/1 that Always Dreaming never wins a stakes race again in his career before retirement?
At this point, I'd have pretty much won the bet.
Wait a second, 2012. This might not be accurate, probably worse by now.Quote: drf
DRF Track Info - Belmont Park
Back to Track Info Index
2012 Racing Dates
Belmont Park logo April 27 - July 15
September 8 - October 28
Belmont Park Track Layout
Belmont Park Track Layout
Main Track: One and one-half Mile, oval.
Widener Turf: One and 5/16 Miles, 27 Feet.
Inner Turf: One and 3/16 Miles, 103 Feet.
Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,097 Feet.
Takeout Information
Win, place, and show: 16%
Daily Double, Quinella, and Exacta wagering: 18.5%
Trifecta, Pick Three, Pick Four, Superfecta and Grand Slam wagering: 24%
Pick 6 wagering: 24% (16% on non-carryover days)
I am a robot.
May 25th, 2017 at 11:03:19 AM
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Those are not the right takeout rates at NYRA tracks, and they are not "worse by now." I can't begin to imagine why anyone would be archiving what is apparently a cut and paste of an old screen grab of a five year old DRF race meet blurb somewhere on the web, since it was not likely to have ever been accurate even on the day it was created half a decade ago. Some of it is highly misleading, involving distribution of carryover pools as if that was the takeout on your wager, while a portion of what it contains (for doubles and pick-3s and single race multi-horse wagers) was and is pretty much right, probably by random accident. But here are current actual rates for the bigger ticket exotics & for straight wagers published by NYRA as required by the NY State Gaming Commission:
Quote: NYRATAKEOUT INFORMATION
Takeout (percentage of each dollar wagered retained by racetrack)
15 percent Pick 6 (non carryover pools)
15 percent Pick 5
16 percent Win, Place, Show
Last edited by: DrawingDead on May 25, 2017
Nothing to read here. Move along.
May 25th, 2017 at 2:35:26 PM
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correct me if i'm wrong Dead, but NYRA tracks are among very few if there are any others who break the change down to the dime instead of the 20 cent point. i.e. a place bet on a favorite might pay $3.90 whereas at most if not all other tracks it would pay $3.80. if a player bets favorites or place and show over time this can amount to a significant difference.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
