2017 KY Derby & Triple Crown contenders

Thing about Sonneteer, it was mentioned he found a hole and came through. Translation, luck had a lot to do with the outcome. The race won't be the same surely, everyone changes the plan based on the previous race. I think I'm sold on Untrapped now rereading this thread, will make a$20 win bet unless my mind gets changed.

Mike Smith on Untrapped for 1st time looks interesting, but I'd be very surprised if Classic Empire has any problems winning the Arkansas Derby. Those two workouts that were 59 and change, were from the gate.

All of Classic Empire's wins were as a 2 year old. He was dull in his one race as a 3 year old. He may not have improved while others have. He's also coming off of an injury that caused him to balk in workouts when he first was put back in training.

I made a $20 win bet on Sonneteer. Needs a top 3 finish to make the derby I figured and doesn't need to save anything. I won't be too surprised no matter who wins. Still a maiden, but what the hell. I might have made a big sucker bet, doesn't bother me(now).

Congrats to those who went with the classiest runner in the field - Classic Empire. That was the best performance I have seen this year and he may earn the highest numbers for that performance**. Not many excuses for the others. Sonneteer and Lookin At Lee got the pace set up they needed. Untrapped and Malagacy pressed and faded some down the stretch. Conquest Mo Money ran great but will need $200k supplement to run in the Derby.

Right now I only have one futures bet runner with the points to run on May 6th. 4 others are on the bubble.

**edit to add
Shortly after the race I was told the final time was 1:48 flat (which would have been faster than the Oaklawn Handicap). The final time is listed @ 1:48.93. My comment is likely hyperbole at this point.

Quote: Keeneone

Shortly after the race I was told the final time was 1:48 flat (which would have been faster than the Oaklawn Handicap). The final time is listed @ 1:48.93. My comment is likely hyperbole at this point.

It might have been 1:48 flat if he got a better trip. I should have said, no problems except getting stuck behind 3 horses, and having to swing out to the grandstands to get around them to win :)

Obviously I was wrong about Classic Empire. At the risk of being wrong again I will note that he's been either a closer or stalker in all of his races. At his longest distance yet in the Derby at 1.25 miles he is likely to be around the middle of the pack. And with 20 horses in a field it is a very tough race for a closer.

Quote: JyBrd0403

Mike Smith on Untrapped for 1st time looks interesting, but I'd be very surprised if Classic Empire has any problems winning the Arkansas Derby. Those two workouts that were 59 and change, were from the gate.

I really wanted to change my bet seeing this, but I didn't for a dumb reason, I had phone difficulties and it would take two phones to make my bet and didn't want to go through that again. I was realizing it was probably a rumor Classic Empire lost weight, I never tried confirming it and should have. The favorites doing so terrible lately and I was hesitant.

Quote: JyBrd0403

...Those two workouts that were 59 and change, were from the gate.

Congrats on the result, but a general note about gate works: I suggest caution 'bout that; use it in context of the pattern of that specific trainer & horse. Gate works will often tend to produce faster times than the clockings you'll get at the distance for normal workouts for similar stock under the same conditions. This is probably the opposite of what most people would expect, including many who've followed the game for a long time, even among some who write about it for a living. But they do.

Quote: DrawingDead

Congrats on the result, but a general note about gate works: I suggest caution 'bout that; use it in context of the pattern of that specific trainer & horse. Gate works will often tend to produce faster times than the clockings you'll get at the distance for normal workouts for similar stock under the same conditions. This is probably the opposite of what most people would expect, including many who've followed the game for a long time, even among some who write about it for a living. But they do.

Thanks for the Conrats, DD. About the gate works, my understanding of gate works, is (as you predicted) exactly the opposite of yours.

When they clock a horse they run him out for a while before the jockey gives him the go. The horse is already running (has momentum) before the official clock is started.

Gate works, on the other hand, the horse is standing still when the clock is started, usually producing a slower time, generally 1 second slower than a normal work. The horse has no momentum going when the clock is started.

That's my understanding. So, when I see 59.3 and see that little g, my eyes light up. I don't mind doing my homework on a horse, that can put up some numbers like that.




I do have a question, though. Why dismiss times so much? A fast horse with a bad jockey, and bad connections, might still win, a slow mule with a great jockey, and the best connections, still ain't gonna win.