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Wizard
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Wizard
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Thanks for this post from:
CBG81
September 8th, 2016 at 5:39:42 PM permalink
It's that time of year again! Get your money ready for some half point parlay card action!

Here is the week 1 William Hill card.

Here are my favorite plays, from best to worst.

Pick Market Basis points
Wash +3.5 3 27.0
Clev +4.5 3.5 19.0
Buf +3.5 +3 EV 17.0
Mia +10.5 10 16.2
Chic +6.5 6 13.0
Atl -2.5 -3 +110 5.8


I haven't had a chance to put anything in yet. Not a very strong week so probably won't bother.

Positive variance to all my fellow players!
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
TomG
TomG
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September 8th, 2016 at 8:48:41 PM permalink
Some places had a week 0 where they had first week NFL games along with the first college games. Tampa +3.5, San Diego +7.5 and Cleveland +6.5 are looking like the big highlights from there.

Quote: Wizard

Positive variance to all my fellow players!



So long as there is good EV, I'll accept whatever variance comes along with 10-teams
Keeneone
Keeneone
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September 9th, 2016 at 9:36:00 PM permalink
Thank you Wiz for starting the 2016 thread. I look forward to the discussion and selections on the .5 point parlay cards.

DET +3.5 is probably borderline for a pick.

Sorry if this has been discussed before, but have Totals (under/over) on these cards ever been considered with the strategy?
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 9th, 2016 at 11:04:56 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Sorry if this has been discussed before, but have Totals (under/over) on these cards ever been considered with the strategy?



I'm sure it has been discussed before. I find a half point off of common totals like 41, 43, and 47 is not worth the price you pay for it. Same answer with college football, half points just aren't that significant. However, sometimes you need to pad a card with some marginal plays, so both totals and college sides can be worthwhile fillers.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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September 9th, 2016 at 11:51:06 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'm sure it has been discussed before. I find a half point off of common totals like 41, 43, and 47 is not worth the price you pay for it. Same answer with college football, half points just aren't that significant. However, sometimes you need to pad a card with some marginal plays, so both totals and college sides can be worthwhile fillers.


Thanks for the answer.
One "filler" I was looking at is the Sunday night ARI/NE total on the cards @ 47.5
Under is looking increasing good vs the market...
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 10th, 2016 at 6:20:34 AM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Thanks for the answer.
One "filler" I was looking at is the Sunday night ARI/NE total on the cards @ 47.5
Under is looking increasing good vs the market...



Plus you get extra credit for going under, as opposed to over.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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September 10th, 2016 at 10:16:49 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

It's that time of year again! Get your money ready for some half point parlay card action!

Here is the week 1 William Hill card.

Here are my favorite plays, from best to worst.

Pick Market Basis points
Wash +3.5 3 27.0
Clev +4.5 3.5 19.0
Buf +3.5 +3 EV 17.0
Mia +10.5 10 16.2
Chic +6.5 6 13.0
Atl -2.5 -3 +110 5.8



I haven't had a chance to put anything in yet. Not a very strong week so probably won't bother.

Positive variance to all my fellow players!



I want to once again give Mike Mega kudos for doing this for the forum. Why isn't this week worth a 6 team parlay?
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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September 10th, 2016 at 1:13:58 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'm sure it has been discussed before. I find a half point off of common totals like 41, 43, and 47 is not worth the price you pay for it.



But if you're adding one game to go from 25-1 to 50-1 or 100-1 to 200-1 (or even adding two games to from 200-1 to 800-1) essentially you aren't paying any vig and getting a free half point (or more).

A lot of the guys/teams who seem to have the most success are doing a lot of 10s. And even 12s at MGM last year until they lowered the odds.

The more teams the better the EV. Still put most of the strongest plays on all the cards, just add a few marginal games on each one. Because you can now put in a lot more cards for smaller amounts and because there are so many more games you can round robin the variance isn't increasing by the same rate as the payouts.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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September 10th, 2016 at 3:59:10 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Wizard

It's that time of year again! Get your money ready for some half point parlay card action!

Here is the week 1 William Hill card.

Here are my favorite plays, from best to worst.

Pick Market Basis points
Wash +3.5 3 27.0
Clev +4.5 3.5 19.0
Buf +3.5 +3 EV 17.0
Mia +10.5 10 16.2
Chic +6.5 6 13.0
Atl -2.5 -3 +110 5.8



I haven't had a chance to put anything in yet. Not a very strong week so probably won't bother.

Positive variance to all my fellow players!



I want to once again give Mike Mega kudos for doing this for the forum. Why isn't this week worth a 6 team parlay?



If I knew where I could legally bet these online, I'd box all six for 5 team parlays.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 10th, 2016 at 5:32:39 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


I want to once again give Mike Mega kudos for doing this for the forum. Why isn't this week worth a 6 team parlay?



You're welcome. It is definitely worth it. I'm hoping to get some cards in tomorrow before kick off.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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