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Wizard
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November 3rd, 2016 at 9:19:34 PM permalink
Quote: RS

That seems backwards to me... O_O



Ooops. You're right. The table has been corrected. I apologize for the error.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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November 4th, 2016 at 5:29:08 PM permalink
This morning Binion's accept 3 out of 7 $50 cards. Then I waited an hour and tried to put the other four in at the Plaza. They took zero.

I think I'm going to quit bothering with these half point cards. It isn't worth the bother to analyze them if you can bet only so little. However, there is sufficient interest, I'll keep posting.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Keeneone
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November 4th, 2016 at 5:41:32 PM permalink
I certainly appreciate the posts on this topic. But I understand changes can/will happen over time. I put in a small $25 (.5 point) 3 teamer @ southpoint and the teller said she had to wait for approval. Only took 30 seconds but...
Pinit2winit
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November 4th, 2016 at 5:57:40 PM permalink
@wizard i put in 12 50 dollar cards at plaza last weekend, fill wait 5 mins put one in etc etc etc

Edit: @RS wanna throw 200 on Dallas with me ehhhhhhh???? f!#/ing browns wont cover
Last edited by: beachbumbabs on Nov 4, 2016
TomG
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November 4th, 2016 at 6:12:57 PM permalink
Probably got killed on them the past two weeks. This week is no where near as strong, so no worries these were the ones rejected.

Analyzing the cards is always the easy part: look at your phone or up at the board, compare it to the stale numbers, then darken in some of the bubbles.

Getting money down has always been the harder part. But there have always been ways for just one person to bet well into five figures every week if they're willing to put in the hours and miles around the city (or state).

I put in a about eight four-team cards and 15 $5 seven team cards this afternoon with no problems other than the usual waiting times.
RS
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November 4th, 2016 at 6:14:44 PM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

@wizard i put in 12 50 dollar cards at plaza last weekend, fill wait 5 mins put one in etc etc etc

Edit: @RS wanna throw 200 on Dallas with me ehhhhhhh???? fucking browns wont cover



Is it +EV? I honestly know almost nothing about sports betting/handicapping/etc. Last year some guy in line asked me who I was betting on, I said some team like patriots or chargers, he was confused and said they had a bye this week. Then I was like oh no, I mean uhh....last week, yeah! But of course that team lost last week. If the tellers & sports book people would quit asking who I'm betting on, that'd be great.
VCUSkyhawk
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November 4th, 2016 at 6:14:54 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

This morning Binion's accept 3 out of 7 $50 cards. Then I waited an hour and tried to put the other four in at the Plaza. They took zero.



Sorry for my naivete, why will they not accept bets on cards that they offer?
I got a plan, we take all your picks we reverse them like one of those twilight zone episodes where everything is the opposite. You say "black" we go white.
AxelWolf
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November 4th, 2016 at 6:46:44 PM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

@
Edit: @RS wanna throw 200 on Dallas with me ehhhhhhh???? f!#^ing browns wont cover

Lets keep that stuff in a PM.
Last edited by: beachbumbabs on Nov 4, 2016
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizard
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November 4th, 2016 at 6:51:00 PM permalink
Quote: VCUSkyhawk

Sorry for my naivete, why will they not accept bets on cards that they offer?



Because they have a player advantage. Same reason they cut players off for playing blackjack, video poker, or anything, with an advantage. Discrimination against smart players, basically.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
mrsuit31
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November 4th, 2016 at 11:20:03 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

This morning Binion's accept 3 out of 7 $50 cards. Then I waited an hour and tried to put the other four in at the Plaza. They took zero.

I think I'm going to quit bothering with these half point cards. It isn't worth the bother to analyze them if you can bet only so little. However, there is sufficient interest, I'll keep posting.



Now I'm really sad that you and we missed out on the week of the century, three weeks ago. We could have claimed the takedown of .5 point cards for ever. But :(
.
Pinit2winit
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November 5th, 2016 at 6:13:08 AM permalink
@ Axel :(

@RS just text me if youre out today, i was joking about 200 on the cowboys, i dont ever straight up bet, but when i mean to its on the falcons thursday night but i dont make it to the casino :(
AxelWolf
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November 5th, 2016 at 6:41:35 AM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

@ Axel :(

@RS just text me if youre out today, i was joking about 200 on the cowboys, i dont ever straight up bet, but when i mean to its on the falcons thursday night but i dont make it to the casino :(

I don't even think RS is in NV.

I'll be out betting If you want to get breakfast or something.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Pinit2winit
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November 5th, 2016 at 6:49:58 AM permalink
Sadly you know my time limits, Wife has work at 10, ill be out at 7:30 downtown, Text if you want specifics to meet for a chat or anything

Edit: Tomorrow i can be there at 730 if you wanna eat downtown i have until 10 tomorrow
AxelWolf
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November 5th, 2016 at 7:21:42 AM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

Sadly you know my time limits, Wife has work at 10, ill be out at 7:30 downtown, Text if you want specifics to meet for a chat or anything

Edit: Tomorrow i can be there at 730 if you wanna eat downtown i have until 10 tomorrow

Oh ya, I forgot, someone has to bring in the bacon (-;

I'll leave Downtown to you since you fit in better around there (-;

Might be an early morning for this anyways(not for me). I'll text you in the field.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
DRich
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November 5th, 2016 at 9:04:27 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard



I think I'm going to quit bothering with these half point cards. It isn't worth the bother to analyze them if you can bet only so little. However, there is sufficient interest, I'll keep posting.



I sure hope you keep posting them. It educates the public and reinforces how important getting the best number is.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AxelWolf
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November 5th, 2016 at 9:43:40 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I sure hope you keep posting them. It educates the public and reinforces how important getting the best number is.

Me some others have something special for you.

It may be a moot point.They are declining individuals not just the good games. I can randomly pick anything and they say you have had enough.

It doesn't matter where I go.

Lesson is.... loose lips.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TomG
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November 6th, 2016 at 9:07:09 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

This morning Binion's accept 3 out of 7 $50 cards. Then I waited an hour and tried to put the other four in at the Plaza. They took zero.

I think I'm going to quit bothering with these half point cards. It isn't worth the bother to analyze them if you can bet only so little. However, there is sufficient interest, I'll keep posting.



. . . if you're already at Binion's you could have just gone to El Cortez, Golden Nugget or Fitz and played them. They'll flag cards, but unlike WH only at a certain level, so instead of seven $50 cards you might need to do 25 $15 cards or 35 $10 cards. The payouts might be less, but the EV is definitely higher than zero

This week hasn't been worth anything anyways. . .

LA +3.5, Jacksonville +8.5, Giants -2.5. . .

Quote: Pinit2winit

Edit: @RS wanna throw 200 on Dallas with me ehhhhhhh???? f!#/ing browns wont cover



Cleveland +290. One good bet. . .
TomG
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November 6th, 2016 at 4:55:09 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

LA +3.5, Jacksonville +8.5, Giants -2.5. . .



3-0 on the top plays is usually pretty good. Unfortunately also had Tennessee +5.5 on too many of them. Looks to be one of the rare weeks close to even
Wizard
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November 6th, 2016 at 5:01:50 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

The payouts might be less, but the EV is definitely higher than zero.



I would have to look at the payouts but I think I would disagree. Or maybe only positive on a very good week with lots of spreads right on 3 or 7.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
TomG
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November 7th, 2016 at 5:07:32 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I would have to look at the payouts but I think I would disagree. Or maybe only positive on a very good week with lots of spreads right on 3 or 7.



If, Then, statements . . .

If six teams at 50-1 or seven at 100-1 at William Hill are +EV, Then 10 teams at 800-1 must also be +EV. If you pick randomly, you have a 50% chance of winning each additional game and the payouts increase at a rate of times two. But you can limit yourself to only picking games where you're getting an extra half-point and must be better than 50%.

I know the protest screams already. "Variance."

But:

If you would be playing six and seven team cards anyway, the added variance is only that of a three or four team parlay. Which is valid, but:

If you would have played seven $50 cards, then you may instead play 35 or more $5 and $10 cards to reduce both variance and heat.

Obviously it starts to become more and more like work. That's what happens when trying to earn money

(and five teams at 23-1 or six teams at 46-1 or better aren't too rare around Las Vegas)
z2newton
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November 10th, 2016 at 10:51:03 AM permalink
Well I hope the wizard keeps doing it. I appreciate it.
Living in a Nevada border state I hope at the very least someone will post the william hill card so I can decide if it's worth the 2 hour drive to the casino.
Wizard
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November 10th, 2016 at 2:53:05 PM permalink
Okay, I heard you guys. Here is the week 10 William Hill NFL plays.

Favorite Underdog Line on Underdog Market on Underdog
Bal Clev 9.5 7.5
Hou Jack 1.5 2
Car KC 3.5 3
NOS Den 2.5 3
NYJ Rams 2.5 2
Phil Atl 0.5 -2
Wash Min 3.5 2.5
GB Tenn 2.5 +3 (-120)
Chic TB 0.5 1
SD Mia 3.5 4
Ariz SF 13.5 13.5
Pitt Dal 2.5 2.5
NEP Sea 7.5 7.5
NYG Cin 1.5 0


Here are my favorite plays:


Pick Market Basis points
Min +3.5 2.5 48.4
KC +3.5 3 27.0
NOS -2.5 -3 15.8
Atl +0.5 -2 14.0
Clev +9.5 7.5 13.6


It would not surprise me if they take Min +3.5 off the cards or just deny almost anything with it on. Keep in mind that Clev +9.5 is the Thursday night game, so you only have 2.5 hours there.
Last edited by: Wizard on Nov 10, 2016
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Stuunod
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November 10th, 2016 at 3:02:34 PM permalink
Hey there Wizard...is that supposed to be Atl instead of Phil??? Thanks
Ayecarumba
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November 10th, 2016 at 3:05:09 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Okay, I heard you guys. Here is the week 10 William Hill NFL plays.

Favorite Underdog Line on Underdog Market on Underdog
Bal Clev 9.5 7.5
Hou Jack 1.5 2
Car KC 3.5 3
NOS Den 2.5 3
NYJ Rams 2.5 2
Phil Atl 0.5 -2
Wash Min 3.5 2.5
GB Tenn 2.5 +3 (-120)
Chic TB 0.5 1
SD Mia 3.5 4
Ariz SF 13.5 13.5
Pitt Dal 2.5 2.5
NEP Sea 7.5 7.5
NYG Cin 1.5 0


Here are my favorite plays:


Pick Market Basis points
Min +3.5 2.5 48.4
KC +3.5 3 27.0
NOS -2.5 -3 15.8
Phil +0.5 -2 14.0
Clev +9.5 7.5 13.6


It would not surprise me if they take Min +3.5 off the cards or just deny almost anything with it on. Keep in mind that Clev +9.5 is the Thursday night game, so you only have 2.5 hours there.



Thanks Wizard! Is the difference between the market's +7.5 on the Browns, and the +9.5 on the card that significant? Although it's two points, it doesn't cross a significant score differential (3, 7, 10).
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TomG
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November 10th, 2016 at 4:57:05 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Thanks Wizard! Is the difference between the market's +7.5 on the Browns, and the +9.5 on the card that significant? Although it's two points, it doesn't cross a significant score differential (3, 7, 10).



You can always do a google search for NFL margin of victory. Games land on either the 8 or 9 about 3% of the time, which means the favorite will win by that much close to 2.5% of the time. Enough to make it +EV on the cards, but not a very strong play. But for tonight, there's Cleveland +10.5 elsewhere, so no reason to bother with something borderline at William Hill. Been crushed betting on the Browns all year, so why not load up on them again this week?
Pinit2winit
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November 10th, 2016 at 5:16:09 PM permalink
Thats the spirit tomg. Might as well unload all year until they win and just hedge a +875 they wont win any
Wizard
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November 10th, 2016 at 9:20:58 PM permalink
Quote: Stuunod

Hey there Wizard...is that supposed to be Atl instead of Phil??? Thanks



Yes, thanks for the correction.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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November 17th, 2016 at 9:19:56 PM permalink
It's time for week 11. Here is the William Hill card.

Favorite Underdog Line on Underdog Market on Underdog
Indy Tenn 2.5 3.5
Det Jack 6.5 6.5
KC TB 7.5 7.5
NYG Chic 7.5 7.5
Ariz Min 0.5 -2.5
Cin Buff 2.5 3 (-120)
Dal Bal 7.5 7 EV
Pitt Clev 7.5 8
Mia Rams 1.5 1.5
NEP SF 12.5 13
Sea Phil 6.5 6.5
Wash GB 2.5 3 (-120)
Oak Hou 5.5 6


Only two strong plays this week:

Pick Market Basis points
Inday -2.5 -3.5 37.2
Min +0.5 -2.5 18.4
Last edited by: Wizard on Nov 18, 2016
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Stuunod
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November 18th, 2016 at 11:16:17 AM permalink
Tenn is underdog. Please clarify. Thanks.
RS
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November 18th, 2016 at 1:40:38 PM permalink
Pretty sure it should be Colts -2.5.
Stuunod
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November 18th, 2016 at 2:12:57 PM permalink
👍🏻
Wizard
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November 18th, 2016 at 3:30:25 PM permalink
Quote: Stuunod

Tenn is underdog. Please clarify. Thanks.



You're right. Thanks for the correction.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ayecarumba
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November 18th, 2016 at 5:42:53 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard



Only two strong plays this week:

Pick Market Basis points
Inday -2.5 -3.5 37.2
Min +0.5 -2.5 18.4



It is interesting that the Vikings card is a full 3 points off the market, but only rates 18.4 basis points, while the Colts are only one point off market, but rate better than double (I assume because it turns a spread of 3 into a winner).

The Titans ate Green Bay's lunch last week though. Why no love against the Colts?
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TomG
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November 19th, 2016 at 10:22:57 PM permalink
Moving through zero is worth almost nothing. Only about three to four games out of 1000 will end in a tie, meaning it will make a difference in fewer than 0.5% of all games. About 16% of all games are decided by three points, which means moving through the that number will make a difference in over 8% of all games. It's more like two cheap numbers against one strong one.

It's why Dolphins -0.5 is looking good and could be a great bet for those who go out Sunday morning, if the market moves to LA +3 -120.

Played Bills +3.5 on every card, so if they win could be a good week, but think college has already wiped out quite a bit.

Titans +3 is a great bet, been playing it off the board all week.
TomG
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November 24th, 2016 at 1:44:44 PM permalink
Redskins +7.5 on the cards; +220 money line, under 54 and Colts +8.5 off the board
Wizard
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November 24th, 2016 at 5:06:50 PM permalink
Week 12 not very strong.

Favorite Underdog Line on Underdog Market on Underdog
SD Hou 1.5 1.5
Tenn Chic 4.5 5
Buff Jack 7.5 7.5
Bal Cin 4.5 4
Atl Ariz 4.5 5
Mia SF 7.5 7.5
NO Rams 7.5 7 EV
NYG Clev 7.5 7
Sea TB 6.5 6
Oak Car 3.5 3 EV
Den KC 3.5 3.5
NEP NYJ 7.5 7.5
Phil GB 3.5 4


Only three decent picks, as of Thursday evening:

Pick Market Basis points
Rams +7.5 7 EV 9.6
Clev +7.5 7 19.6
Car +3.5 3 EV 17.0
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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December 2nd, 2016 at 3:32:23 PM permalink
Is it week 13 already? Seems this season is flying by. Then again, I haven't paid so little attention to the NFL for a long time.

Here is the week 13 WH card.

Favorite Underdog Line on Underdog Market on Underdog
Den Jack 4.5 5
Atl KC 3.5 5
GB Hou 6.5 6.5
Phil Cin 0.5 1.5
NO Det 5.5 6
Chic SF 1.5 1
NEP Rams 13.5 13.5
Bal Mia 3.5 3.5
Oak Buff 3.5 3 (-105)
SD TB 3.5 3.5
Ariz Wash 2.5 2.5
Pitt NYG 6.5 6
Sea Car 6.5 7 EV
Indy NYJ 1.5 2


Only two decent picks:

Pick Market Basis points
Buff +3.5 3 (-105) 22.0
Sea -6.5 -7 (-120) 18.4


Another week I'm going to sit out.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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December 9th, 2016 at 4:54:55 AM permalink
Here is the week 14 WH card. I hope nobody took Oak +3.5 on the Thursday night game.

Pick Market on underdog
Den +0.5 +1
SD +1.5 +1.5
Hou +5.5 +6.5
Clev +5.5 +5.5
Buff +1.5 +3 (-115)
Ariz +0.5 -2
Chic +7.5 +8
Jack +3.5 +3 EV
NO +2.5 +3 (-120)
Phil +0.5 +2
NYJ +2.5 +2.5 (+110)
GB +2.5 +3
Rams +6.5 +6.5 (-105)
NYG +3.5 +3.5 (-105)
Bal +7.5 +7 (-120)


Good good picks this week. I like:

Pitt -1.5 (vs Buff)
Ariz +0.5
Jack +3.5
TB -2.5 (vs. NO)
Wash -0.5 (vs. Phil)
Sea -2.5 (vs GB)
Bal +7.5
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ayecarumba
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December 14th, 2016 at 6:10:49 PM permalink
As we enter the point in the season where playoff bound teams may be resting starters but not publicizing their actions, the spread may not change, but does it open up opportunities in the Over or Under totals?
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Wizard
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December 15th, 2016 at 2:31:29 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Good good picks this week.



Let's see how those would have done:

Pitt -1.5 (vs Buff) -- W
Ariz +0.5 -- L
Jack +3.5 -- L
TB -2.5 (vs. NO) -- W
Wash -0.5 (vs. Phil) -- W
Sea -2.5 (vs GB) -- Big L
Bal +7.5 -- W
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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December 15th, 2016 at 2:51:24 PM permalink
Time for week 15.

Favorite Underdog Line on Underdog Market on Underdog
Sea Rams 15.5 16
Mia NYJ 2.5 2.5
Dal TB 6.5 7 (-120)
NYG Det 4.5 4
Bal Phil 5.5 5.5
GB Chic 6.5 5.5
Min Indy 4.5 4
Buff Clev 10.5 10
KC Tenn 5.5 5.5
Hou Jack 6.5 5.5
Ariz NO 2.5 3
Atl SF 13.5 14 (-115)
NEP Den 3.5 3 EV
Oak SD 3.5 3 (-120)
Pitt Cin 3.5 3 EV
Wash Car 4.5 6.5


Some good picks this week!

Pick Market Basis points
SD +3.5 3 (-120) 37.0
Den +3.5 3 EV 17.0
Cin +3.5 3 EV 17.0
Wash -4.5 -6.5 16.6
Clev +10.5 10 16.2
Ariz* -2.5 3 15.8
Indy +4.5 4 12.3
Det +4.5 4 12.3


* Corrected
Last edited by: Wizard on Dec 15, 2016
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
RS
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December 15th, 2016 at 2:54:59 PM permalink
Something seems off with the NO game. Underdog but -2.5? Did you mean AZ -2.5 or are they in wrong spot on first table?
Wizard
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December 15th, 2016 at 3:53:27 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Something seems off with the NO game. Underdog but -2.5? Did you mean AZ -2.5 or are they in wrong spot on first table?



Thanks for the correction. I just fixed it. The second table should have said Ariz -2.5.
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Wizard
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December 17th, 2016 at 9:54:11 AM permalink
Here is an updated table of my favorites picks, based on line movements since my last entry.

Pick Market Basis points
SD +3.5 2.5 37.0
Den +3.5 3 EV 17.0
Cin +3.5 3 EV 17.0
Wash -4.5 -6.5 16.6
Det +4.5 4 12.3
Clev +10.5 +10 (-105) 11.2
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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Joined: Nov 17, 2009
December 17th, 2016 at 10:40:04 AM permalink
Trusting the Browns to come within anything less than 17 seems scary. How many times have they covered this season?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Stuunod
Stuunod
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Joined: Oct 21, 2016
December 17th, 2016 at 10:44:18 AM permalink
They've never even covered on my super teasers...+17 & +19 like you said...I'm done with em!!!
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Joined: Aug 8, 2010
December 17th, 2016 at 1:53:00 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Trusting the Browns to come within anything less than 17 seems scary. How many times have they covered this season?



More times than they have played the dysfunctional Bills!
TomG
TomG
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Joined: Sep 26, 2010
December 17th, 2016 at 5:52:53 PM permalink
Really liking the Bears +7.5 on Ties Win cards
DRich
DRich
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Joined: Jul 6, 2012
December 18th, 2016 at 12:29:44 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Trusting the Browns to come within anything less than 17 seems scary. How many times have they covered this season?



They have covered twice this year.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
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