2016 Kentucky Derby

Quote: speedycrap

Past performance please?

Go back one page. I posted links (Brisnet pps) for the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby.

If the final odds mirror the morning line a player could use the old "dutching" strategy and bet Mo Tom, Gun Runner, Destin, Exagerrator. Mohaymen and Shagaf to win and more than double your money if your bet wins. Some will call you a sucker if you do this since you guarantee yourself at least 5 losing bets but bettors using the common 3 horse exacta box also guarantee themselves losers. I can't get interested in Creator coming from way back; he's going to have to weave and lose lots of ground. I'm also not interested in Danzing Candy, he's not strong enough to wire the field. Nyquist is removed from the bet because of his short price.

GLTA in the Oaks. The Fillies run for the Lillies!

Congrats to anyone who had Cathryn Sophia.

Kentucky Oaks video:


I was singled to Go Maggie Go in all my wagers. Unfortunately, racing luck did not Go her way today. Lewis Bay (my second choice) went hard right a few strides out of the gate and cost GMG a few lengths and a good pressing position. I also did not care for the ride down the backstretch and around the far turn. After a less than ideal start L Saez should have kept her inside (where she actually was) on the rail to save ground. She finished strong but way too late to win. This is all sour grapes and I will now go cry into my pillow until I fall asleep. I need to recharge for tomorrow...

NYQUIST will be a NO SHOW for the big race tomorrow....

well Nyquist the Hockey Player that is...seems he wanted to play hockey in Russia more than see his namesake race in the Derby

http://windsorstar.com/sports/hockey/reddam-nyquist-ready-for-kentucky-derby

After thorough study, I've arrived at the following carefully considered opinion: that my opinion this year on race #12 at CD doesn't amount to a whole lot more than a wishy-washy murky muddle. But since there's that law that says I'm required to have one on this event anyways, and by 'have an opinion' of course we mean put money down, I may just be betting this race like a flea this year. My problem with it has a lot to do with pace. I'm not sure how much there will really be. If they go out six furlongs in something closer to 1:12 than to 1:10 then my kind of analysis isn't worth much. It becomes a different race, as it has the past few years. Sadly, in my view. I'm really missing the 'all-graded stakes-earnings' method of qualifying used for so long before CDI cooked up their infernal points system a few years ago to "improve" it. If it turns out that's how the pace sets up again this year, then maybe it should be renamed the Churchill horsey-themed merry-go-round.

So maybe I'm a little cranky about it this early morn. And get off my lawn. But anything can happen with these emotional athletic creatures when the gate opens, and if I see several of them hook up going at it eyeball to eyeball on the front end to the tune of a sweet 1:09 & something then all is forgiven, for now.

Who is this year's 'wiseguy' horse? Anybody know? Normally that would've been going around for at least a few weeks by now. But it seems I didn't get the memo this year.(*)

And for entertainment value, what kind of trouble will Mo Tom seek and find this time?

*EDIT to add: Just now saw your earlier remarks...

Quote: Keeneone

...<SNIP>... Creator has definitely been the "buzz" horse in the recent weeks reports on the blogs and websites. A little cold water was thrown on him when he drew post #3 yesterday. ...<SNIP>...

...so maybe Creator gets the bent nose bettor trophy this year?

I plunged in the 7 furlong event for males at Churchill but my closer got strung out wide and came up too late. So the next race for mares at 7 furlongs I doubled my plunge on a speedster who got 2nd and I got my money back and then some. The crowd of once in a blue moon bettors let those two very tough houses off at pretty nice odds. Now I have enough profit for a burger, fries and a brewsky. Nothing to brag about but a hell of a lot better than a loss. The track seems quite fast. In the race for males at 7 furlongs the final time was very close to a track record.

I will go Lani WPS. Lani with Creator and Nyq for ex.

Well I sure like seeing the guy from the poor end of the city winning his second Kentucky Derby over the baffets of the world

You do know that Bob was not born with a silver spoon in his mouth? His dad raised cattle and chickens on a small ranch and Bob started as a quarter horse jockey. He and his wife donate generously to programs for retired race horses and the Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund.

Nyquist is the quintessential alpha male. Once he gets the lead if a horse comes up on him he won't let that horse pass him.
Shagaf said the hell with this. He pulled up and walked off.
Check out the chart from the race. Secretariat still holds the track record since 1973.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=CD&raceDate=05/07/2016&cy=USA&rn=12

Before the race if a bookie offered a wager "will the favorite win, will the second choice run second, third choice run third and fourth choice run fourth", I don't think I would have bet that at 1,000-1

Betting the Preakness isn't going to be much fun. Either you bet against Nyquist which is suicidal; or you bet on him for a surely stingy payout, probably 3/5 or even very possibly a miserly 2/5. Putting him on top is going to seriously depress any payouts in the exotics. I'm going to scrutinize the undercard for some good bets.

Starting to get slightly tempted for a speculative wager on Stradivari in the 13th at Old Hilltop tomorrow. Just because Belmont is forecast to be a swamp & if that's a bog I don't have much else cooking tomorrow. Someone wanna please talk me out of it to prevent squandering a perfectly serviceable fiddy-dollah?

Better idea would probably be prop wagers on whether the power will go out, drunks will run onto the track in the middle of the race, they'll accidentally shut off the timer, etc. All of which has happened at the Preakness. The fine salt of the Earth folk in Baltimore are not famous for a high level of competence in running this track and handling a large event.

Quote: DrawingDead

Starting to get slightly tempted for a speculative wager on Stradivari in the 13th at Old Hilltop tomorrow. Just because Belmont is forecast to be a swamp & if that's a bog I don't have much else cooking tomorrow. Someone wanna please talk me out of it to prevent squandering a perfectly serviceable fiddy-dollah?

Better idea would probably be prop wagers on whether the power will go out, drunks will run onto the track in the middle of the race, they'll accidentally shut off the timer, etc. All of which has happened at the Preakness. The fine salt of the Earth folk in Baltimore are not famous for a high level of competence in running this track and handling a large event.

Go Maggie Go came through in the Black Eyed Susan to help reduced massive losses on my Derby futures. I now find myself "live" to the Preakness double. I have Cherry Wine and Stradivari. I had futures wagers on both for the Derby, but they failed to make the gate. I also like Exaggerator (due to the wet track possibilities), but passed due to low odds on him. The track is likely to be very wet @ Pimlico. Last year's deluge right before the start was interesting/scary, but the rain will likely come earlier this year. The favorites (Nyquist/Exaggerator) have run well over "off" tracks already this year. It could be a chalk fest in the Preakness, but much more speed has shown up for this event (unlike the Derby).
On a rainy day bet a gray/grey? No, not Lani, the other one...

Here are the pps if anyone really cares:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Preakness16.pdf

Good luck.

Quote: Keeneone

Go Maggie Go came through in the Black Eyed Susan to help reduced massive losses on my Derby futures. I now find myself "live" to the Preakness double. I have Cherry Wine and Stradivari. I had futures wagers on both for the Derby, but they failed to make the gate. I also like Exaggerator (due to the wet track possibilities), but passed due to low odds on him. The track is likely to be very wet @ Pimlico. Last year's deluge right before the start was interesting/scary, but the rain will likely come earlier this year. The favorites (Nyquist/Exaggerator) have run well over "off" tracks already this year. It could be a chalk fest in the Preakness, but much more speed has shown up for this event (unlike the Derby).
On a rainy day bet a gray/grey? No, not Lani, the other one...

Here are the pps if anyone really cares:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Preakness16.pdf

Good luck.

Well good, at the very least I can have a clear rooting interest here for some reason besides just generally croaking O'Neil.

After the results of the last several years I can't advocate using my weighted pedigree AWDs for this or the Derby, though they continue to work very well in the preps (and generally in races not involving California based stock). But with that said, I get a tick over 7.2f for Stradivari. Leaving aside other considerations such as tactical race shape & form & pace & post, to me that's an okay number to try a colt for this, though just okay & it doesn't scream for this distance.

P.S. How do you hold the tin cup in that 'Pokey' horse suit?

Quote: DrawingDead

Starting to get slightly tempted for a speculative wager on Stradivari in the 13th at Old Hilltop tomorrow. Just because Belmont is forecast to be a swamp & if that's a bog I don't have much else cooking tomorrow. Someone wanna please talk me out of it to prevent squandering a perfectly serviceable fiddy-dollah?

Better idea would probably be prop wagers on whether the power will go out, drunks will run onto the track in the middle of the race, they'll accidentally shut off the timer, etc. All of which has happened at the Preakness. The fine salt of the Earth folk in Baltimore are not famous for a high level of competence in running this track and handling a large event.

Talk you out of Stradivari.... hmm Try comparing his split times with Nyquist., that did it for me. LOL. I'm probably going with an Exaggerator, and Nyquist boxed exacta, and hope for a miracle run by Exaggerator, he is 2-1-0 in 3 muddy races, so maybe just a little miracle.

I live pretty close to Baltimore and it's raining pretty hard right now and it's only 7am. It's not a drizzle. This area had had rain something like 20 out of the last 22 days. If it keeps up like this the track is going to be really bad - muddy. Nyquist has never run in anything like what this track is likely to be. The chance for an upset is dramatically increased. Running in mud, if that is what happens means that there is a really good chance that the race will not be reflective of the horses' true abilities.

Quote: lilredrooster

I live pretty close to Baltimore and it's raining pretty hard right now and it's only 7am. It's not a drizzle. This area had had rain something like 20 out of the last 22 days. If it keeps up like this the track is going to be really bad - muddy. Nyquist has never run in anything like what this track is likely to be. The chance for an upset is dramatically increased. Running in mud, if that is what happens means that there is a really good chance that the race will not be reflective of the horses' true abilities.

Are you planning to be on-track for this? Just curious.

Quote: DrawingDead

Are you planning to be on-track for this? Just curious.

No, I don't like crowds. I do like to watch live racing in person on slow days and sometimes go to Laurel or Charlestown.

Someone made a single $80,000 early win wager on Stradivari when the track opened. Which will eventually be only a small percentage of the final pool, but drove the odds on him down to 3:5 (for the time being) in the relatively small pool that existed in early betting hours before the race.

If you wanted to bet eighty large on him because you liked his chances and wanted to get paid for it, that would be a stupid way to go about it. If you wanted to draw the maximum possible attention to your wager and possibly create some steam on the tote board, that would be an excellent way to do it. But that all assumes that the $80k punter has clearly defined motives, and is not simply an enthusiastic drunk with a spare eight bricks of Benjamins burning a hole in his pockets.

ADDENDUM: No effect on wagering flow. It was swallowed up without a burp before most people saw it. An hour to post there's already eight million in the win pool & he opens at 8/1 on the board.

Two dead horses today?
One after just having won it's race?
Another down during race, jockey injured, horse put down with broken leg.
Geez.....

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Two dead horses today?
One after just having won it's race?
Another down during race, jockey injured, horse put down with broken leg.
Geez.....

You talked me out of watching. I just don't have the stomach for that side of it.

Not this year.

Good race.
Was fun to watch.

Missed on the double, but had the tri/super for a small profit. Pace was very fast. Great ride by Kent D on Exaggerator. On to the Belmont Stakes...