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ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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March 9th, 2016 at 2:29:50 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Thanks for that info Drawing Dead and ThatDonGuy. That info suggests a strategy that I never knew about.
If you had bet on a horse other than Songbird to show in that race and he does show you would get a fair payout even if Songbird
was in the money. But if Songbird was out of the money then you would get a gigantic payout.


This happens every now and then; it's usually a result of something called "bridge jumping," where a small number of people bet a lot on a particular horse to show.

Here is a Daily Racing Form article about it from 2002. Note that the first two horses in the race mentioned paid more to show than to place (no, they don't move the money around to make the place payout at least as high as the show, although with computers doing all of the calculations now, it wouldn't be that hard to implement); in fact, it's quite possible in a situation like this for the winner to pay more to show than to win.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 9th, 2016 at 3:34:01 PM permalink
Since they are completely independent wagering pools, all sorts of anomalies can and do occur. Which is especially likely on big days with a lot of infrequent racegoers creating huge pools. Even with some tickets on a heavy favorite:


Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 9th, 2016 at 6:05:35 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

A few words about that. The AWD figure I got for Nyquist should probably come with an asterisk.
-snip-

-Editing mine-

Thanks, that makes a lot of sense. Younger sires (like Uncle Mo) just won't have a large pool of runners yet, particularly at the longer distances.
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Anyone have opinions on longer odds runners (like 70-1+ in the futures) on the west coast right now? I only have one small wager on Frank Conversation. Apparently they are actually planning on shipping to Dubai to run his next race. If he does ship out I consider that wager toast. California-->Dubai-->Kentucky Derby is wildly unconventional. In the San Felipe: I Will Score, Uncle Lino, Cupid. Other runners: Malibu Sunset, Ralis, Denman's Call.
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Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future wager will also be open this weekend.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 10th, 2016 at 4:07:22 AM permalink
Drawing Dead said "What was anybody doing in either the place or win pools on a filly paying $2.10, $2.10, and $2.10 WPS across the board."


I think there may be many very occasional racegoers who incorrectly believe that place means coming in second
and show means coming in third.
And I think it may be something that can be taken advantage of (but not in a huge way as in the Songbird race)
on days that draw huge crowds to racing.

Right or Wrong?
it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 10th, 2016 at 2:54:12 PM permalink
Well, my interpretation of that is nothing but an opinion, and yes I've got no doubt at all that some bet their money while they 'think' (or guess) that might be how it works. I've seen and heard exactly that. So called 'stoopers' scooping up discarded tickets make their meager little living on that and similar stuff. But I find that many people bet money believing all kinds of amazing things for all sorts of truly astounding 'reasons' so I wouldn't choose to be quite so specific about that at a venue that routinely does eight to ten million every Saturday, where a drunk with a spare Benjamin or a wandering gaggle of Twinkies in funny hats have no individual effect.

In general it is remarkable how wise the overall market, in the form of the tote board, eventually is in the aggregate over time on average, compared to just about any clever and well informed individual. But. In assigning individual reasons within the crowd, besides accumulating more than my sensible share of time rubbing elbows with racetrack degenerates, spending a lot of time at a lot of poker tables and in a lot of casinos has taught me that it is very often a mistake to assume individual rationality or to give just about any sort of gambler credit for doing much at all in the way of actual thinking or paying attention before acting. Saying it might not exactly get me voted most popular kid in the class on a forum like this, but there you go. My verdict on the "Right or Wrong?" question posed on that would be: "No, neither." Not false, but also not nearly sufficient.
Quote: lilredrooster

Drawing Dead said "What was anybody doing in either the place or win pools on a filly paying $2.10, $2.10, and $2.10 WPS across the board."


I think there may be many very occasional racegoers who incorrectly believe that place means coming in second
and show means coming in third.
And I think it may be something that can be taken advantage of (but not in a huge way as in the Songbird race)
on days that draw huge crowds to racing.

Right or Wrong?

Last edited by: DrawingDead on Mar 10, 2016
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 10th, 2016 at 3:06:47 PM permalink
I've got my own subscriptions for my own information, but for others, is there any free source of past performances available for Churchill Downs' parimutual Kentucky Derby Future Wager this year? As Keeneone said, Pool 3 is open this weekend Friday to Sunday, and I haven't noticed a link to a free online product from someone like Brisnet that was available in the past. I'm thinking the link is probably around somewhere and I just haven't noticed it as I do my own thing using my data sources.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 10th, 2016 at 8:01:58 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

I've got my own subscriptions for my own information, but for others, is there any free source of past performances available for Churchill Downs' parimutual Kentucky Derby Future Wager this year? As Keeneone said, Pool 3 is open this weekend Friday to Sunday, and I haven't noticed a link to a free online product from someone like Brisnet that was available in the past. I'm thinking the link is probably around somewhere and I just haven't noticed it as I do my own thing using my data sources.


I am not aware of any current free pps for the Derby Pools.
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Santa Anita is having a big Saturday this weekend. The card reminds me of another reason I enjoy watching the 2yo and 3yo races. A number of these Derby hopefuls will return for their 4yo season (and sometimes even older). Bolo is running in the Frank Kilroe and Cyrus Alexander is running in the Santa Anita Handicap to name a few mentioned in the 2015 thread.
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I am hoping Riker performs well in the TB Derby (finishing 1st-->4th to earn some more Derby points). I was a little surprised to see him entered into the field (thought he might run @ Turfway Sat.). If he runs to his past style (like 2015) he will likely be on or near the lead in this race. 1st time out off a long layoff on the front end and he could certainly come up short needing the race. We shall see...
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 11th, 2016 at 2:48:08 AM permalink
Not exactly pps, in some ways better but no speed figures, but charts are free on equibase.com
it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 11th, 2016 at 9:31:34 PM permalink
At Tampa, I'm looking for it to be won from off the pace. Partly due to how the main track surface there usually tends to play, and partly due to an opinion about the likely race shape.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 12th, 2016 at 7:43:57 PM permalink
Destin won pressing the pace with a nice final time and Danzig Candy won on the front end all the way around. I preferred Destin's win mostly because his final time and Santa Anita's main track seemed "off" after a lot of rain a few days earlier. Riker ran a pretty bad race and Brody's cause was a little better down the stretch. I guess both may head to the Blue Grass Stakes or maybe the Spiral for Riker. Both certainly looked like they needed a race after a 5 month layoffs.

Positive spin for my barn after two rough weekends in the preps:
Maybe Destin's back to back wins flatter the Louisiana runners that beat him in the Lecomte (Mo Tom).
Honest answer:
Destin's back to back wins flatter Destin and his improving form.
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Does anyone think "all others" is worth a look in the 3rd KD pool? (currently 12-1)
Next up: Rebel Stakes @ Oaklawn

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