2016 Kentucky Derby

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April 6th, 2016 at 10:33:32 PM permalink

It feels like Tapit vs Uncle Mo a little.

Lani is interesting, love the AWD and I like the fast ship over to the US. I guess we will have to watch his training to get a feel for his transition.
I will not be doing to much cappin on the big 3 this weekend. I already have $$ bet on a number of them for the Derby. So I will just be cheering them on to earn Derby points.

Aqueduct Wood Memorial (~2:30pst) - pps:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.htm
(click on Zulu's Ultimate pps link)
Chad Brown looks to have this one covered. Shagaf and a rested Flexibility. I am pulling for a Flexibility top 3 finish.

Keeneland Blue Grass (~3pmPST) - pps:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/BlueGrass16
I thought the Florida Derby had too many entered until I saw this one. 16 entered and maybe 5 belong. Zulu adds blinkers, so catch him if you can. I am also pulling for Cherry Wine and Crescent Drive.

Santa Anita Derby (~3pmPST) - pps:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htm
(click on Mor Spirit's Ultimate pps link)
Yet another race with lots of runners that likely do not belong. I don't have a horse in here so I would love to hear other's opinions. I will be @ Santa Anita for the Derby this weekend (1st time visiting SA).

Opening weekend for Keeneland where my attention will be focused and a big Saturday for 3 year olds.

lilredrooster

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April 7th, 2016 at 3:17:30 AM permalink

In the Santa Anita Derby Mor Spirit has closed nicely almost every time and with ascending Beyers. Probably no Lanerie style disaster with Stevens on board the closer. Danzing Candy looks like the lone speed except for Iron Rob who is stretching out with first route on dirt and is likely to fade. These horses are pretty obvious contenders and will surely offer stingy payouts. Thanks muchly for the PPs and info. Very generous of you. Good Luck.

Last edited by: lilredrooster on Apr 7, 2016

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Keeneone

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April 7th, 2016 at 10:18:45 AM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
In the Santa Anita Derby Mor Spirit has closed nicely almost every time and with ascending Beyers. Probably no Lanerie style disaster with Stevens on board the closer. Danzing Candy looks like the lone speed except for Iron Rob who is stretching out with first route on dirt and is likely to fade. These horses are pretty obvious contenders and will surely offer stingy payouts. Thanks muchly for the PPs and info. Very generous of you. Good Luck.

I am not feeling it with Danzing Candy. Denman's Call (on the rail) and Iron Rob are stretching out. Smokey Image may get a little better start this time. An extra 1/16th of a mile. I think the pace will be honest for the pressers/closers routers to pounce late. I am leaning to Exaggerator and Mor Spirit, but the race looks like a chalky 3 horse field.
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Weather may be an issue at all three races this weekend. AQU and KEE will be colder (~mid40's) with rain/snow/freezing possible for Friday and maybe into Saturday. SA will likely be moist/wet for Friday and Saturday. As BBB stated earlier IANAM.

DrawingDead

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April 7th, 2016 at 6:28:18 PM permalink

Something to keep in mind for the Wood Memorial on Saturday is that the Aqueduct track many of them have been running on is NOT the Aqueduct track they are about to run on now. They've made the seasonal move of AQU racing from the inner "all-weather" track to the outer dirt course. It matters.

And I am a meteorinarian.

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theotherguy

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April 7th, 2016 at 7:20:34 PM permalink

Nyquist led every step of the way until the 8th pole, when he hit another gear and accelerated away from the field. Even racing greenly at the 1/16 pole, he left no doubt who was the best horse that day. A performance like that and he will be wearing roses on the first Saturday in May.

Keeneone

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April 7th, 2016 at 10:56:46 PM permalink

Quote: DrawingDead
Something to keep in mind for the Wood Memorial on Saturday is that the Aqueduct track many of them have been running on is NOT the Aqueduct track they are about to run on now. They've made the seasonal move of AQU racing from the inner "all-weather" track to the outer dirt course. It matters.

And I am a meteorinarian.

This is a very good point.
I personally believe this change from Fall--->Winter--->Spring is one reason the New York preps have not had a bigger impact on the Kentucky Derby recently. The main track running is also why I have discounted the speed horses in the race: Matt King Coal (distance challenged?) and Outwork (shipping in from the TBay Derby). I really liked the visual of the TBay Derby and the record time by Destin. I am very reluctant to leave Outwork out of the Wood win picture (Johnny V's presence is also worth mentioning). But Shagaf has already won on the inner and main track in Jamaica NY. Flexibility has already won on the inner and had 2 runner up finishes over the main track (to Mohaymen both times and one time at 1^1/8mile).
----------

I incorrectly posted the running time of the Santa Anita Derby earlier. It is actually listed @ ~3:30pmPST.

lilredrooster

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April 9th, 2016 at 10:56:21 AM permalink

There are 2 scratches in the Santa Anita Derby so it's a 8 horse field instead of a 10 horse field which means it is less likely that the closer Mor Spirit will get blocked or have trouble.

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lilredrooster

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April 9th, 2016 at 11:14:38 AM permalink

Quote: theotherguy
Nyquist led every step of the way until the 8th pole, when he hit another gear and accelerated away from the field. Even racing greenly at the 1/16 pole, he left no doubt who was the best horse that day. A performance like that and he will be wearing roses on the first Saturday in May.

You say Nyquist hit another gear and accelerated away from the field but actually what happened is that he slowed down less than the other horses. When you see what seems to be horses accelerating during the stretch drive it is almost always an optical illusion; they almost always are at their fastest for the first half mile and run decreasingly slower after that. In the Florida Derby Nyquist did the last furlong in 12.73 which is not quick and the last 3 furlongs in a slow 37.72. Having said this I tend to agree with you that he is a very impressive horse. He only showed quickness in his turn time in 3 races and all of them were sprints. As impressive as he is I have to say that so far he has really been unchallenged particularly down the stretch. I have this nagging feeling about him that he has not really proved himself yet. Everyone was expecting Mohaymen to get in his face for a stretch duel but Mohaymen was off his game. I think there is a good chance that in the KY Derby there will be 19 or 20 horses in the field and one or two or three of them is going to like the extra eighth of a mile (compared to the longest distance they have ever run before.) He is surely an impressive horse and he is also surely not anywhere close to being a lock to grab the roses.

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DrawingDead

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April 9th, 2016 at 1:54:42 PM permalink

Is My Man Sam really likely to go off anywhere near his double digit morning line in the Bluegrass? I'd have to take a shot with him at anything > 5/1. He may need a pace meltdown in front of him to get there (along with Leparoux not doing a Lanerie) but it appears to me there's a reasonable chance he may get that.

For those other horsey places: soups on! Good luck with that.

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theotherguy

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April 9th, 2016 at 2:54:40 PM permalink

It did not look like Mohaymen was having a bad day as they turned for home. And Nyquist has won 2 G2 and 4 G1 races by a total of 14 lengths. Not his fault he remains unchallenged ? ? ?

lilredrooster

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April 9th, 2016 at 3:40:50 PM permalink

8 minutes to post Santa Anita is sloppy good for the frontrunner Danzing Candy, bad for the closer Mor Spirit

ooops! I forgot to mention Exaggerator. Hope you guys had him. Danzing Candy went out too fast; did the first quarter in 22 something; then tired.

Last edited by: lilredrooster on Apr 9, 2016

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Keeneone

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April 10th, 2016 at 7:17:45 PM permalink

In Derby future gambling I had a terrible weekend, but my first visit to the "Great Race Place" was enjoyable. Constant rain did not sour the overall experience. It is no Keeneland, but I really liked the very, very, big track. As a big bonus, I got to see (arguably) the best 3 year old horse in the country...

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Aqueduct Wood Memorial: Outwork won.

Keeneland Blue Grass: Brody's Cause won.

Santa Anita Derby: Exaggerator won.

lilredrooster

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April 13th, 2016 at 4:16:28 AM permalink

For anybody reading these posts who bets on horses only occasionally during the Derby I would like to let you know that the legal U.S. online horse racing site tvg.com offers a $150 bonus for new accounts. It is the best online promotion for horse racing that I know of. The minimum requirements to get the bonus are to deposit a minimum of $150 and bet $150 and then, at least when I did it last year, they deposit $150 into your account the very next day. It is not match play or anything like that; it is $150 to bet or withdraw; whatever you want. I believe, but I'm not 100% sure that this promotion is only for $100 if we are not close to a big event. I have used this promotion both for myself; and for my wife, which they allow. When I used this promotion there were absolutely no strings or fine print attached except for the requirement that you use a credit card or debit card (for which there is a very small fee) to get the full promotion. If I remember correctly I mistakenly used a credit card instead of a debit card which meant I had to pay a $10 cash advance fee which I would not have had to pay if I had used a debit card. To repeat, when I used this promotion there were no restrictive strings or fine print; but that has been quite a while ago, so anybody who intends to use it should call them on the phone and get all of the full details in case anything has changed. I'm sorry if I sound like a shill for tvg.com but it is a great promotion so I thought I would tell you guys about it. I don't work for them or have any connection to them other than I bet on their site. Online betting on horse racing is legal in the U.S. for U.S. companies although I think a very few states disallow it.

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theotherguy

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April 13th, 2016 at 8:50:52 AM permalink

Thanks for the info on tvg. As for the replays, Exaggerator was the most impressive. What a move on a speed favoring track !
From 6f to 1/8 pole he ran a 24 flat. Then finished last 1/8 in 13 and 2/5 despite being under a long hold late. Definetly a horse to be reckoned with in the Derby.

Last edited by: theotherguy on Apr 13, 2016

DrawingDead

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April 14th, 2016 at 5:51:19 AM permalink

My pedigree AWDs listed in post position order for the final Derby preps on Saturday:

Keeneland - The Lexington

One More Round 6.6f
Direct Message 7.5f
Lomcevak 7.0f
Swipe 7.1f
Synchrony 7.0f
Big Squeeze 7.9f
Call the Colonel 6.8f
Riker 6.9f
Yo Carm 6.8f
Collected 6.7f

Ehh. Most look either a bit slow, or likely to be rather short for moving on to the next one. Good luck.

Oaklawn Park - The Arkansas Derby

Discreetness 6.5f
Cutacorner 7.0f
Creator 7.8f
Suddenbreakingnews 7.4f
American Pioneer 7.3f
Unbridled Outlaw 7.1f
Dazzling Gem 6.9f
Whitmore 7.5f
Luna de Loco 6.9f
Cupid 7.2f
Gray Sky 7.4f
Gettysburg 7.5f

With a few others here, I'm potentially interested in Catalano's colt American Pioneer at Hot Springs if he goes off at a generous price on Saturday.

Last edited by: DrawingDead on Apr 14, 2016

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Keeneone

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April 14th, 2016 at 6:12:04 PM permalink

Thanks for the AWDs.
The Lexington is interesting. A few seem to be trying the last chance opportunity to make the big race. If they win (earning 10 points) Swipe or Riker could enter the Top 25 for the Derby. They would likely still need defections to make the Derby gate.
Lexington past performances (click on Collected's Ultimate pps link):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htm

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The Arkansas Derby is deep. A number of runners could make some noise in the Derby if they get in.
Arkansas past performances (click on Cupid's Ultimate pps link):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htm

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The Tampa Bay preps (Sam F Davis, Tampa Bay Derby) have been quite productive for this year's 3yo crop.
-Sam F Davis: Destin won the TB Derby. Rafting 4th in the TB Derby. Morning Fire won the Spectacular Bid Stakes. Gettysburg 2nd in "Sunland Derby". Whatawonderflworld 2nd in the John Battaglia.
-Tampa Bay Derby: Outwork won the Wood. Brody's Cause won the Blue Grass.

lilredrooster

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April 16th, 2016 at 6:30:15 AM permalink

In the Lexington Swipe is a horse you almost can't help yourself from rooting for. His last 2 races in '15 he was barely beaten by Nyquist. In the Breeders Cup Juvenile he closed really impressively. He hasn't run in a little more than 5 months; he was sidelined with a bone chip problem. With that kind of layoff and injury it is certainly a mystery as to what he will do. I'm shocked that the morning line has him at 9/5. He was purchased as a yearling for only $5,000. Amazing.

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DrawingDead

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April 16th, 2016 at 5:20:16 PM permalink

With Catalano's colt off the board, that exacta payout just saved my assets at Hot Springs.

Interviewing jockeys often seems to result in yet another repeat performance of the same old Saturday Night Live script, and remains just as enlightening as it was the first 637 times::

Quote:
I'm here in the winner's circle with victorious rider Chico Esquella. Chico, how does it feel to cap your remarkable year with a big win in the prestigious Urinal Cup on the final day? �Tank-you. Baysbowl haw bean berry berry goot to me.�

It looked like you might be trapped in tight quarters behind the tiring pacesetters coming into the stretch; so tell us about your trip. �Berry nice horse. Baysbowl bean berry berry goot to me.�

With the way he ran today, do you think he'll handle more distance? �Nice horse. Tank-you for let me ride heem, Meester Jones. Baysbowl berry goot to me. Tank-you. Tank-you berry much.�

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Keeneone

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April 16th, 2016 at 6:38:08 PM permalink

Collected won the Lex. Stakes, but he is very unlikely for the Derby...maybe the Preakness.

Quote: DrawingDead
With Catalano's colt off the board, that exacta payout just saved my assets at Hot Springs.
-snip-

-editing mine-

I also caught the exacta in the Ark Derby. Arkansas Derby video:

My Derby stable is pretty light this year. Only have Suddenbreakingnews, Majesto, and Mo Tom. Mo Tom will need help to get into the race. At this point I do not believe any of the three are fast enough to actually capture the roses. But there is still 3 weeks to improve. A few more workouts, a couple of gallops, the gate draw, and weather watching to factor into the big race...

Most recent Derby point leaderboard (pdf):
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/20160416_Road_to_the_Kentucky_Derby_Point_Standings.pdf
24 horses can enter the race but only 20 can run on May 7th.

DrawingDead

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April 17th, 2016 at 5:13:01 PM permalink

Yeah, my future book barn is more quiet this year than I can ever recall at this point. On Saturday morning I doubled my stable. From two to four. Before the weekend's prep stakes I checked the lines and found Westgate was an outlier to the lines from others. They were selling several of their house-banked Derby future interests at double what I've been seeing from others (and some others at about half the odds of some Las Vegas books), and I took Destin at 20/1 from them, and American Pioneer at 100/1. This compares to Destin 10/1 & Am. Pi. 50/1 from William Hill (at that time), for example.

Of course, after the Oaklawn race the probability that I'll be cashing on that second one is approximately zero. But with the information available at the time, I don't really regret the wager at that price. I do like the other new fellow in the barn via Tampa, and he's frolicking in the back while the other three I have seem to have all come down with a bad case of colic.

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Keeneone

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April 17th, 2016 at 6:04:50 PM permalink

Quote: DrawingDead
Yeah, my future book barn is more quiet this year than I can ever recall at this point. On Saturday morning I doubled my stable. From two to four. Before the weekend's prep stakes I checked the lines and found Westgate was an outlier to the lines from others. They were selling several of their house-banked Derby future interests at double what I've been seeing from others (and some others at about half the odds of some Las Vegas books), and I took Destin at 20/1 from them, and American Pioneer at 100/1. This compares to Destin 10/1 & Am. Pi. 50/1 from William Hill (at that time), for example.

Of course, after the Oaklawn race the probability that I'll be cashing on that second one is approximately zero. But with the information available at the time, I don't really regret the wager at that price. I do like the other new fellow in the barn via Tampa, and he's frolicking in the back while the other three I have seem to have all come down with a bad case of colic.

Westgate did not offer Derby futures until very late in the process this year (maybe late March?). Not sure why. I had a number of tickets with them last year but zero this year.

4 out of 20 ain't bad. I am starting to wonder what Destin's odds will be in the Derby. I am also curious to see who will ride him...

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AFAIK, of the runners in the Top 20 only 2 have yet to really commit to the race. Cupid and Trojan Nation.

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**Breaking news** Songbird will not run in the Kentucky Oaks after spiking a low grade fever.

Keeneone

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April 18th, 2016 at 11:14:44 AM permalink

The DRF is reporting Cupid will miss Derby (for a medical procedure to be performed) and may run in the Preakness.
http://www.drf.com/news/preview/cupid-miss-kentucky-derby-point-preakness

The Preakness could be a solid event this year. A number of late bloomers and a tough Derby point system in 2016 may lead to a very full field. Who knows, Songbird may now be pointed to the race...

Mo Tom (which is positive for my Derby barn) is now #20 and in the Derby.

DrawingDead

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April 20th, 2016 at 6:28:10 AM permalink

AWD calculations & mud proclivity from the pedigrees for the first 23 Derby qualifiers, listed in order of their position on the qualifying points leaderboard. Wet track performance is on a scale of 0 to 5, with '5' indicating progeny of their ancestors have produced outstanding race performance in mud and '0' indicating their relatives have been egg sucking dogs when trying to run in the soup.

7.4f, 4.0m - Gun Runner
6.5f, 4.0m - Nyquist
7.3f, 3.3m - Exaggerator
7.2f, 4.0m - Outwork
7.9f, 2.0m - Brody's Cause
7.8f, 4.0m - Creator
7.9f, 3.3m - Lani
7.5f, 1.7m - Mor Spirit
7.2f, 3.7m - Mohaymen
6.5f, 4.0m - Danzig Candy
7.7f, 2.3m - Destin
7.4f, 3.0m - Suddenbreakingnews
8.2f, 2.0m - Oscar Nominated
7.5f, 4.7m - Shagaf
7.5f, 3.0m - Whitmore
7.2f, 3.3m - Tom's Ready
7.6f, 4.0m - My Man Sam
7.5f, 2.7m - Majesto
7.9f, 2.7m - Trojan Nation
6.8f, 3.0m - Mo Tom
6.5f, 2.3m - Fellowship
6.9f, 3.0m - Adventist
6.6f, 4.0m - Laoban

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Keeneone

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April 20th, 2016 at 6:31:49 PM permalink

Thanks for those AWDs and mud numbers. The mud numbers are very interesting. We have already seen a number of big preps run over "off" tracks (FL Derby, Wood, SA Derby). I personally prefer to only use the mud (or turf) tendencies when the horse does not have a race over the listed surface. For example: Shagaf has the highest mud number (4.7), but his performance in the Wood was unimpressive. I guess we are "lucky" to have seen a number of wet preps that could help if Churchill comes up wet.
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A number of Jockey changes have been mentioned here and there.

Whitmore - V. Espinoza (I. Ortiz rode in his last race)
My Man Sam - I. Ortiz (J. Leparoux rode in his last race)
Shagaf - J. Rosario (I. Ortiz rode in his last race)
Oscar Nominated - J. Leparoux (B. Hernandez rode in his last race)

DrawingDead

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April 20th, 2016 at 7:14:00 PM permalink

^^Some day, just once, I will get Danzing Candy's name right. Today is not that day.

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Keeneone

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April 23rd, 2016 at 11:06:40 PM permalink

Only 2 more weeks...
Early Brisnet pps for Kentucky Derby #142:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerby16.pdf
A number of jockeys are unnamed and the horses are listed by Derby points earned.

lilredrooster

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April 26th, 2016 at 3:18:44 AM permalink

Nyquist has earned Beyers over 100 only in sprints. A few other very tough horses have earned Beyers over 100 in routes. If Nyquist draws a great % of the action, these other horses will offer juicy odds.

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Keeneone

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April 28th, 2016 at 8:08:43 PM permalink

Trojan Nation looks like he will be running in the Derby based on his handlers comments.
California-->New York-->California-->Kentucky all in about a month. He will also face 19 "winners" in the Derby. IMO, he should be 99/1++ in the Derby, even if the track is sloppy. But he has the points so...
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Early weather reports are looking good for no rain.

lilredrooster

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April 29th, 2016 at 1:17:04 PM permalink

Here are DRF's Mike Watchmaker and Jay Privman on video giving their analysis of what might happen at the Derby.

http://www.drf.com/derby-watch

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ernestmiddle

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April 29th, 2016 at 1:54:52 PM permalink

Amazing, all this talk about Byers figs, but no mention of the horse with the highest Byers. A horse who ran head to head and finished second behind NYQUIST at 7 furlongs. His last race he came from 16 1/2 lengths back at the 1/2 to win by 6& 1/4.
Despite being 5 wide on the turn, drifting out and racing greenly in the stretch and finishing late on a long hold. In the Santa Anita Derby.
Typical DRF Byers figures touts. If they like a horse with best Byers, he will win. If they don't like the horse with Best Byers, just ignore him.
EXAGGERATOR >>>>>>>>>>>>>>

lilredrooster

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April 30th, 2016 at 1:58:28 AM permalink

Equibase uses a different system for calculating speed figures, most say it's inferior to Beyer's, but anyway, in their system, neither Nyquist, Gunrunner or Exaggerator are among the top 10 highest for 3 year old males.

Mohaymen
Xpressbet.com Fountain of Youth S.
Gulfstream Park
02/27/2016
115
Zulu
Xpressbet.com Fountain of Youth S.
Gulfstream Park
02/27/2016
111
Unified
Bay Shore S.
Aqueduct
04/09/2016
111
Destin
Sam F. Davis S.
Tampa Bay
02/13/2016
110
Shagaf
Gotham S.
Aqueduct
03/05/2016
110
Danzing Candy
San Felipe S.
Santa Anita
03/12/2016
110
J R 's Holiday
Kitten's Joy S.
Gulfstream Park
01/30/2016
109
Don't Be So Salty
Kitten's Joy S.
Gulfstream Park
01/30/2016
108
Mor Spirit
Robert B. Lewis S.
Santa Anita
02/06/2016
108
Suddenbreakingnews
Southwest S.
Oaklawn Park
02/15/2016
108
Laoban
Gotham S.
Aqueduct
03/05/2016
108
Imperial Hint
Ocala Breeders' Sales Sophomore S.
Tampa Bay
04/09/2016
108
-

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Keeneone

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May 3rd, 2016 at 11:24:52 PM permalink

Post position draw on Wednesday for the Derby. Weather still looking clear for Derby day.
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Here are the Kentucky Oaks pps:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYOaks16.pdf

No Songbird has resulted in a full field (14 fillies + 1 also eligible). Pretty wide open without Songbird. I like Go Maggie Go best. Rachel's Valentina and Lewis Bay should also be present at the end of the 1^1/8 mile race.

lilredrooster

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May 4th, 2016 at 3:45:03 AM permalink

There's an awful lot of closers and stalkers in the Oaks. Paola Queen a 30/1 shot looks like the lone speed.
Tomorrow, at Churchill in a 5 furlong juvenile stakes matchup, Lady Aurelia is running. She is an 8/5 shot who set a track record at Keeneland for 4.5 furlongs in her first and only race. Maybe the final odds won't be too stingy on her because she's running against colts.

Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 4, 2016

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ernestmiddle

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May 4th, 2016 at 7:16:22 AM permalink

Ooops forgot about this thread. See kentucky Derby System. just need a live horse on post positions 1 thru 4 now.

Keeneone

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May 4th, 2016 at 7:16:44 PM permalink

The Derby draw is complete:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerby16.pdf

Kentucky Derby 142:
1. Trojan Nation, A. Gryder, 50-1 - 7.9f, 2.7m - Trojan Nation
2. Suddenbreakingnews, L. Quinonez, 20-1 - 7.4f, 3.0m - Suddenbreakingnews
3. Creator, R. Santana, 10-1 - 7.8f, 4.0m - Creator
4. Mo Tom, C. Lanerie, 20-1 - 6.8f, 3.0m - Mo Tom
5. Gun Runner, F. Geroux, 10-1 - 7.4f, 4.0m - Gun Runner
6. My Man Sam, I. Ortiz, 20-1 - 7.6f, 4.0m - My Man Sam
7. Oscar Nominated, J. Leparoux, 50-1 - 8.2f, 2.0m - Oscar Nominated
8. Lani, Y. Take, 30-1 - 7.9f, 3.3m - Lani
9. Destin, J. Castellano, 15-1 - 7.7f, 2.3m - Destin
10. Whitmore, V. Espinoza, 20-1 - 7.5f, 3.0m - Whitmore
11. Exaggerator, K. Desormeaux, 8-1 - 7.3f, 3.3m - Exaggerator
12. Tom�s Ready, B. Hernandez, 30-1 - 7.2f, 3.3m - Tom's Ready
13. Nyquist, M. Gutierez, 3-1 - 6.5f, 4.0m - Nyquist
14. Mohaymen, J. Alvarado, 10-1 - 7.2f, 3.7m - Mohaymen
15. Outwork, J. Velazquez, 15-1 - 7.2f, 4.0m - Outwork
16. Shagaf, J. Rosario, 20-1 - 7.5f, 4.7m - Shagaf
17. Mor Spirit, G. Stevens, 12-1 - 7.5f, 1.7m - Mor Spirit
18. Majesto, E. Jaramillo, 30-1 - 7.5f, 2.7m - Majesto
19. Brody�s Cause, L. Saez, 12-1 - 7.9f, 2.0m - Brody's Cause
20. Danzing Candy, M. Smith, 15-1 - 6.5f, 4.0m - Danzig Candy
Also eligible:
21. Laoban, C. Velasquez, 50-1 - 6.6f, 4.0m - Laoban
22. Cherry Wine, R. Albarado, 30-1 - 7.3f* (posted earlier in the thread) - Cherry Wine

I have taken the liberty of adding DrawingDeads AWD's (average winner distance) and mud proclivity alongside the posts and jockeys. Where you at DD? Are you just going to bet Nyquist/ALL/Creator? :) :) :)

ernestmiddle

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May 4th, 2016 at 8:45:22 PM permalink

nyquist all creator nyquist creator all $72 IF Creator is single digits.

DrawingDead

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May 4th, 2016 at 10:38:14 PM permalink

I'm skulking around in the back of Doug O'Neil & Dallas Stewart's barns with a vicious rabid milkshake sniffing dog. And if Nyquist gets enough of the distance and/or a soft enough pace to hit the board, I'll be panhandling to buy the new costume I'll be needing to begin my career as a Las Vegas street performer & water bottle salesman.

Eliminated from being taken seriously by me, due to especially poor (downright weird) behavior & works on the track: Lani. Just hope he isn't such a nutcase that he creams part of the field at the break. He seems to be in need of some kind of anti-psychotic meds, so he's apparently practicing to become an "AP" when this whole running in circles thing doesn't work out.

Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.

Keeneone

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May 4th, 2016 at 11:14:54 PM permalink

Quote: DrawingDead
I'm skulking around in the back of Doug O'Neil & Dallas Stewart's barns with a vicious rabid milkshake sniffing dog. And if Nyquist gets enough of the distance and/or a soft enough pace to hit the board, I'll be panhandling to buy the new costume I'll be needing to begin my career as a Las Vegas street performer & water bottle salesman.

Eliminated from being taken seriously by me, due to especially poor (downright weird) behavior & works on the track: Lani. Just hope he isn't such a nutcase that he creams part of the field at the break. He seems to be in need of some kind of anti-psychotic meds, so he's apparently practicing to become an "AP" when this whole running in circles thing doesn't work out.

Make sure to have your bloodhound sniff around the Asmussen stalls a little. There is a whole angle on inducted into the HOF and winning the Derby...

Lani is the only grey I do not care for, but maybe he is a freak. Apparently he is a real "stud". A rock out with his c**k out type horse.

Pokey on Fremont might do well?

lilredrooster

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May 5th, 2016 at 3:23:03 AM permalink

Accuweather has changed its' forecast and is now calling for rain in Louisville on Saturday but it may come at night, after the Derby.
Creator must be one of the most untalked about 2nd favorites (along with Mohaymen) in history. This guy closes from way back. The opening remark in his last chart is that he was "devoid of speed."

Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 5, 2016

Please don't feed the trolls

DrawingDead

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May 5th, 2016 at 2:19:59 PM permalink

Those that appear to have produced a clear consensus of opinion just on their local workouts and appearance moving over the track (including nothing else such as pedigree, distance, class, etc) among professional clockers and the most specialized part of the media covering them full time (and not from using my own observation or necessarily indicating any overall opinion on their chances of winning): Creator and Outwork (and perhaps Shagaf in appearance) on the clearly positive side; while on the negative end Lani has lapped the field in winning the pre-race dunce cap.

I was preferring Destin, but reports that I've seen on his final work and the only one at Churchill are only okay to so-so.

Those I'm most interested in at this point include: Creator, Destin, Gun Runner, and perhaps Suddenbreakingnews. At least two of those would require a fair bit of luck to get a clean trip and run their best race. And I'd really like Laoban to scratch in as the first on the AE list, for a greater likelihood of a serious pace for the distance, unlike the last two years for this event.

Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.

ernestmiddle

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May 5th, 2016 at 2:41:42 PM permalink

Surprised Exxagerator is not being touted more. Highest Byers, won Santa Anita Derby after being 5 wide on turn, racing greenly is stretch, wins by 6+ lengths , finished under a hold late. I know, I know Nyquest beat him at 7F, They ran 1, 2 all the way in that sprint, not exactly the pace Exxagerator prefers. But what choice did he have. Will be a different story in the Derby.

ernestmiddle

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May 5th, 2016 at 2:54:39 PM permalink

Lani is definetly a nut job. But at least he has won a G2 race. In 1979 a maiden who had lost all 6 races by 85 lengths was a starter in the Derby. Great Redeemer drew the post position next to Spectacular Bid. Several people swore they would horeswhip the trainer if that horse caused any trouble. Only trouble he caused was almost running over several reporter crossing the track, thinking the race was over. GR was 25 lengths behind next to last horse.
On a good note a lady bought GR as a 5 year old, skin and bones, back full of sores, converted him to a hunter and he won over 100 blue ribbons.

speedycrap

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May 5th, 2016 at 4:31:45 PM permalink

Did Lani win the UAE Derby?? My horse friend recommended him to me.

ernestmiddle

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May 5th, 2016 at 5:40:02 PM permalink

Lani is a RANK outsider in the truest meaning of the word.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/05/sports/horse-racing/lani-japan-kentucky-derby-long-shot.html?_r=0

speedycrap

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May 5th, 2016 at 6:32:51 PM permalink

Who has the Derby PP please?

ThatDonGuy

ThatDonGuy

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May 5th, 2016 at 6:40:31 PM permalink

Quote: speedycrap
Who has the Derby PP please?

Click Here

And for those of you who are interested, the post positions for the Kentucky Oaks

speedycrap

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May 5th, 2016 at 6:43:01 PM permalink

thanks

Keeneone

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May 5th, 2016 at 6:59:45 PM permalink

Quote: DrawingDead
Those that appear to have produced a clear consensus of opinion just on their local workouts and appearance moving over the track (including nothing else such as pedigree, distance, class, etc) among professional clockers and the most specialized part of the media covering them full time (and not from using my own observation or necessarily indicating any overall opinion on their chances of winning): Creator and Outwork (and perhaps Shagaf in appearance) on the clearly positive side; while on the negative end Lani has lapped the field in winning the pre-race dunce cap.

I was preferring Destin, but reports that I've seen on his final work and the only one at Churchill are only okay to so-so.

Those I'm most interested in at this point include: Creator, Destin, Gun Runner, and perhaps Suddenbreakingnews. At least two of those would require a fair bit of luck to get a clean trip and run their best race. And I'd really like Laoban to scratch in as the first on the AE list, for a greater likelihood of a serious pace for the distance, unlike the last two years for this event.

Creator has definitely been the "buzz" horse in the recent weeks reports on the blogs and websites. A little cold water was thrown on him when he drew post #3 yesterday.
Outwork is a large animal, reminds me of Dortmund a little (high cruising speed) but with an improved pedigree.
Gun Runner absolutely got the best draw (#5) in my opinion. He has really no speed around him and he could secure a nice pressing spot inside (saving ground) for his grinding/mild closer style of running.

2 horses that I feel are real wild cards in this race are Destin and Mo Tom:
Destin
Positives - 2 great races @ Tampa, horses he beat have showed up after Tampa, great jockey riding, solid pedigree (AWD), perfect running style for Derby (tactical speed/presser), great post position (#9).
Negatives - 2 month layoff, Pletcher (although he does do very well with long layoff), so-so recent workouts, never run past 1^1/16mile.

Mo Tom
Positives - I am not sure we have seen his best all around race, his Lecomte win was excellent, I think he has the most impressive turn of foot late in all the preps, win @ CD, solid works @ CD.
Negatives - 6 weeks off, Louisiana Derby does not produce many Derby winners, poor post (#4), low AWD pedigree, may not be fast enough even with added distance.
----------

5 runners I just can not make a real case for:
Trojan Nation, Oscar Nominated, Danzing Candy, Tom's Ready, Lani (based on his studishness), Laoban (if he draws in).

speedycrap