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DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 6th, 2016 at 2:46:12 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

There was also minus 4900 in the place pool.

But what was Songbird doing in a Grade III, anyway?

What was anybody doing in either the place or win pools on a filly paying $2.10, $2.10, and $2.10 WPS across the board, and how is it they have two units of US currency to rub together and slide across the counter? Why put as much as too-dallah on a win or place ticket paying the same legally required minimum as a show ticket? Is the Santa Anita grandstand choc-full of baccarat chartists, dice influencers, and telepathic roulette wheel and slot machine forecasters who are unable to read a tote board nowadays?

The remaining calendar of major preps:

March 12: Tampa Bay Derby, Tampa Bay Downs

March 19th: Rebel Stakes, Oaklawn Park

March 20th: Sunland Derby, Sunland Park

March 26th: UAE Derby, Meydan
March 26th: Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds

April 2nd: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park
April 2nd: Spiral Stakes, Turfway Park

April 9th: Wood Memorial, Aqueduct
April 9th: Bluegrass Stakes, Keeneland
April 9th: Santa Anita Derby, Santa Anita

April 16th: Lexington Stakes, Keeneland
April 16th: Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park

I did not quite win an Eclipse Award for my Derby analysis last year, but since there was some slight interest from a few people here in my pedigree calculation of the weighted average winning distance of the progeny of the sire (x2) and damsire (x1), here are my AWD figures for those that have been mentioned in this thread, along with a few others that have been in the news lately:

Battery 7.5f
Blue Creek 8.1f
Brody's Cause 7.9f
Danzig Candy 6.5f
Destin 7.7f
Exaggerator 7.3
Gift Box 7.1f
Greenpointcrusader 7.6f
Gun Runner 7.4f
Mo Tom 6.8f
Mohaymen 7.2f
Mor Spirit 7.5f
Nyquist 6.5f
Riker 6.9f
Shagaf 7.5f
Songbird 7.2f
Suddenbreakingnews 7.4f
Sunny Ridge 6.5f
Zulu 7.7f

I have some house-banked non-parimutual future wagers booked at high double-digit odds from Las Vegas casinos much earlier this year on Shagaf and Zulu. And at this point I think I'm probably willing to trade both together for a sandwich from Cantor's Deli plus a souvenir "Welcome to Las Vegas" keychain.
Sabretom2
Sabretom2
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March 6th, 2016 at 3:23:19 PM permalink
Pay me to take the Shagaf ticket and I'll swear I'm the original buyer.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 6th, 2016 at 3:35:31 PM permalink
Maybe Drawing Dead can explain to me how if the show pool was a minus pool in Songbird's race that the
2 horse paid $2.60 to show and the 10 horse paid $5.40 to show. I would have expected all of the horses
in the show pool to pay $2.10. Do some tracks have some kind of set asides for minus pools? I don't
understand it. Help.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=SA&raceDate=03/05/2016&cy=USA&rn=5
it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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March 6th, 2016 at 5:25:28 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Maybe Drawing Dead can explain to me how if the show pool was a minus pool in Songbird's race that the
2 horse paid $2.60 to show and the 10 horse paid $5.40 to show. I would have expected all of the horses
in the show pool to pay $2.10. Do some tracks have some kind of set asides for minus pools? I don't
understand it. Help.


Each horse's share of the show pool is what its bettors bet on it plus 1/3 of the amounts the horses that did not finish in the top three bet.

Here's an example: assume 6 horses.
There's 5,000,000 bet on #1 to show, and 50,000 bet on each of #2 through #6. Assume 1, 2, and 3 finished, well, 1-2-3.
#1's payout pool is 5,000,000 + 1/3 of the amounts bet on 4, 5, and 6, or a total of 5,150,000, divided among the 5,000,000 bet, so each 2 bet would get 2.06, but that is below the 2.10 minimum in California, so the track has to come up with an extra 100,000.
#2's payout pool is 50,000 + 1/3 of the amounts bet on 4, 5, and 6, or a total of 65,000, divided among the 50,000 bet, so each 2 bet would get 2.60.
#3's payout pool is the same as #2s.
#1 has a minus pool, but #2 and #3 both paid $2.60 to show.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 6th, 2016 at 5:39:10 PM permalink
EDIT: Didn't see TDG's reply while I was posting mine. Go with that one, it is a straighter line between the dots.^

Quote: lilredrooster

Maybe Drawing Dead can explain to me how if the show pool was a minus pool in Songbird's race that the
2 horse paid $2.60 to show and the 10 horse paid $5.40 to show. I would have expected all of the horses
in the show pool to pay $2.10. Do some tracks have some kind of set asides for minus pools? I don't
understand it. Help.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=SA&raceDate=03/05/2016&cy=USA&rn=5

You'll see that happening at all tracks in North America. There are some complicating intricacies to determining exact payouts, but for a rough somewhat over-simplified understanding of what will be paid: Subtract the total amount bet to 'show' on the first three finishers from the pool. Divide the remainder of that total pool made up of show wagers on all starters into thirds, and apply the takeout (15.43% in California) to each of those three shares of the pool (there are actually some more complex proportional calculations made in apportioning the takeout). and return what is left in each of those three stacks of moolah to the bettors on each of the first three finishers, respectively. In a "minus pool" condition this will routinely result in a meaningful profit for tickets on at least one or quite possibly two of the successful 'show' betting interests, while the third stack paid back to the heavily bet favorite would amount to bettors losing money on each of those winning tickets on that one. The track then must make up the difference to bring the return on those tickets up to the required minimum (usually $2.10 per $2.00 wagered in most jurisdictions).

Illustrating with an example (again over-simplified a bit from what actually occurs): We have a total of $99 dollars in the show pool at Armpit Meadows. Among the first three finishers, $80 was bet on #1, while $2 was wagered on #2, and also $2 on #3. We'll make the takeout at this fabulous race joint with its massive hundred dollar pools in Cesspool, Indiana 10% for simplicity. So subtracting $80 & $2 & $2 and splitting the $99 pool gives us 99 - 84 = 15, then 15/3 for $5. For #2 & #3 they have $2 + $5 = $7, less ten percent , or six bucks and change, to be distributed to wagers of $2.. But for horse #1 returning $5 + $80 = $85, less 10% resulting in $76 and change returned to holders of $80 of winning wagers is not so good; for them "winning" like this would become a bit expensive. So the track is required to cough up money to them at the rate of $2.10 per $2, resulting in total payments to those folks of $84 (or 40 x $2.10). The track has now paid out about $84 + $6.20 + $6.20 (leaving out precise calculations of 'breakage' or rounding and some other complications for simplicity), so The Meadows of Armpit didn't do very well on the whole deal overall, and wouldn't be able to pay the light bill if this happened constantly, but bettors on two of the three are reasonably happy for the moment at least by grumpy horseplayer standards, and fans of the third are at least not rioting and storming the back room with broken bottles and burning Racing Forms.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Mar 6, 2016
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 6th, 2016 at 5:58:41 PM permalink
Quote: Sabretom2

Pay me to take the Shagaf ticket and I'll swear I'm the original buyer.

Ha! Well after his win Saturday 'my' horse sits at the lofty perch of third in the Derby qualifying points standings, and unlike most who won't even make it to the big show has done well enough that he's already virtually assured of a spot in the starting gate. So, take that, wiseguy.

Unfortunately, there is also the little detail that his Gotham win on Saturday was accomplished in somewhat plodding grinding fashion with an adjusted time more appropriate to a contest of three-legged mules. But swear to THIS Mr. Tom the 2nd: He'll absolutely keep right on going to get the mile and a quarter distance, though at this rate he'll be going on to eventually get it in a projected time of around 2:06-ish while the winner gets his picture taken and starts munching on his rose petal necklace after about 2:01 to 2:02 or so.

Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 6th, 2016 at 6:32:28 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

There was also minus 4900 in the place pool.

But what was Songbird doing in a Grade III, anyway?


Songbird likely ran because 60k for a solid workout is hard to pass up. She was put on the lead, in the clear, and keep safe all the way home.

Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
I did not quite win an Eclipse Award for my Derby analysis last year, but since there was some slight interest from a few people here in my pedigree calculation of the weighted average winning distance of the progeny of the sire (x2) and damsire (x1), here are my AWD figures for those that have been mentioned in this thread, along with a few others that have been in the news lately:

Battery 7.5f
Blue Creek 8.1f
Brody's Cause 7.9f
Danzig Candy 6.5f
Destin 7.7f
Exaggerator 7.3
Gift Box 7.1f
Greenpointcrusader 7.6f
Gun Runner 7.4f
Mo Tom 6.8f
Mohaymen 7.2f
Mor Spirit 7.5f
Nyquist 6.5f
Riker 6.9f
Shagaf 7.5f
Songbird 7.2f
Suddenbreakingnews 7.4f
Sunny Ridge 6.5f
Zulu 7.7f

I have some house-banked non-parimutual future wagers booked at high double-digit odds from Las Vegas casinos much earlier this year on Shagaf and Zulu. And at this point I think I'm probably willing to trade both together for a sandwich from Cantor's Deli plus a souvenir "Welcome to Las Vegas" keychain.


Editing mine.

Thanks for those AWDs. Interesting stuff. Nyquist is surprisingly (to me at least) low. He is proven @ 8.5 furlongs (2 times) but that last 1.5 furlong may be to much for him. I also like Zulu and was glad they chose to race against Mohaymen. It was a solid learning experience. He was a little green, reluctant to load, but ran a decent 2nd. The Florida Derby is shaping up nicely. Champion 2yo vs K. Derby "favorite" (plus a couple of others)... I see you included Songbird, but based on the "talk" from ownership/trainer she will not be running for the Roses. Maybe she will do a R. Alexander, win the Oaks first then maybe enter the Preakness? Shagaf won, and there is nothing wrong with winning and earning enough points to make the gate. Blue Creek lost. Bring on The TBay Derby.

In other recent news, the Sunland Park Derby (and Oaks) will not be run this year and points will not be earned for the K. Derby.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 6th, 2016 at 7:55:11 PM permalink
Thanks for that info Drawing Dead and ThatDonGuy. That info suggests a strategy that I never knew about.
If you had bet on a horse other than Songbird to show in that race and he does show you would get a fair payout even if Songbird
was in the money. But if Songbird was out of the money then you would get a gigantic payout. Unless I'm
still not understanding but I think I am. Just as an aside West Virginia requires a minimum $2.20 payout on any show bet.
Not that I'm planning to start a new career as a show plunger. But hey, the profit is double if your on the monster
horse. I'll pass.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 7, 2016
it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 7th, 2016 at 2:50:56 PM permalink
On the list of remaining preps I posted earlier, I left out the San Felipe. Corrected list below:

Quote: DrawingDead

...<SNIP>,,,

The remaining calendar of major preps:

March 12: Tampa Bay Derby, Tampa Bay Downs
March 12: San Felipe Stakes, Santa Anita

March 19th: Rebel Stakes, Oaklawn Park

March 20th: Sunland Derby, Sunland Park CANCELLED

March 26th: UAE Derby, Meydan
March 26th: Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds

April 2nd: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park
April 2nd: Spiral Stakes, Turfway Park

April 9th: Wood Memorial, Aqueduct
April 9th: Bluegrass Stakes, Keeneland
April 9th: Santa Anita Derby, Santa Anita

April 16th: Lexington Stakes, Keeneland
April 16th: Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park

...<SNIP>...

Quote: lilredrooster

...But if Songbird was out of the money then you would get a gigantic payout. Unless I'm...

You've got it right.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 9th, 2016 at 1:45:16 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Nyquist is surprisingly (to me at least) low.

A few words about that. The AWD figure I got for Nyquist should probably come with an asterisk.

He's by Uncle Mo, who is a very new freshman (1st crop to race) sire. These are the least reliable circumstances for using data of the progeny, since it involves a small sample size, and also many new stallions will intentionally be bred to some extra precocious types in order to win early (and therefore short) while they are trying to establish a market for his stud services. So it isn't as cut and dried as others, and more judgement is involved.

Depending on what one chooses to do with this you could tweak it to get as high as 6.7f in the way I go about it, and someone else who isn't looking at either the sire of the dam or the sire's sire (Indian Charlie isn't very stout at 6.6f) could end up as high as 6.9f based solely on the sparse data from Uncle Mo's offspring to date. In these circumstances (1st & 2nd crop sires) I make an adjustment to reduce the weighting of the sire to 1x, same as the sire of the dam (or sometimes down to zero weight if there's no meaningful data), and also include the sire of the sire at 1x weighting. But the whole exercise does become somewhat more "iffy" under these circumstances no matter what methodology you choose.

I don't like him at a mile and a quarter no matter which way I massage the data, but that probably means you should go ahead and shower him with roses right now.

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