1. Lookin for a Kiss, 7.1f
2. Donegal Moon, 7.4f
3. Cherry Wine, 7.3f
4. Zulu, 7.7f
5. Crescent Drive, 7.4f
6. Brody's Cause, 7.9f
7. Laoban, 6.6f
8. Twizz, 7.0f
9. Goats Town, 7.7f
10. American Dubai, 7.0f
11. Cards of Stone, 6.4f
12. Zapperini, 7.3f
13. Star Hill, 7.0f
14. My Man Sam, 7.6f
AE Pinson, 7.4f
AE Hint of Roses, 7.3f
Wish I knew some sensible way to evaluate Dubai form for this. But I don't.
BloodHorse: UAE Derby Winner Lani Arrives at Churchill
But unlike what so many others have done before, that's the right way to do it to give him his best chance. Shipping over and clearing quarantine a good month ahead, presumably to include schooling on loading & breaking at North-American gates (which are not identical to others) and turns (which are VERY different than many others) besides getting ample recovery from travel and time-shifting and general acclimation and training on the surface. By Tapit out of a Sunday Silence mare, Lani's pedigree is obviously beautiful for 10 furlongs on dirt. Or for a mile and a half. My weighted AWD calculation is 7.9f. But I have no clue how 'good' (fast - athletic) he actually is, or isn't.
Oh, and he's a grey. Or a gray. O/U on number of Tapits in the gate?
Lani is interesting, love the AWD and I like the fast ship over to the US. I guess we will have to watch his training to get a feel for his transition.
I will not be doing to much cappin on the big 3 this weekend. I already have $$ bet on a number of them for the Derby. So I will just be cheering them on to earn Derby points.
Aqueduct Wood Memorial (~2:30pst) - pps:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.htm
(click on Zulu's Ultimate pps link)
Chad Brown looks to have this one covered. Shagaf and a rested Flexibility. I am pulling for a Flexibility top 3 finish.
Keeneland Blue Grass (~3pmPST) - pps:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/BlueGrass16
I thought the Florida Derby had too many entered until I saw this one. 16 entered and maybe 5 belong. Zulu adds blinkers, so catch him if you can. I am also pulling for Cherry Wine and Crescent Drive.
Santa Anita Derby (~3pmPST) - pps:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htm
(click on Mor Spirit's Ultimate pps link)
Yet another race with lots of runners that likely do not belong. I don't have a horse in here so I would love to hear other's opinions. I will be @ Santa Anita for the Derby this weekend (1st time visiting SA).
Opening weekend for Keeneland where my attention will be focused and a big Saturday for 3 year olds.
Quote: lilredroosterIn the Santa Anita Derby Mor Spirit has closed nicely almost every time and with ascending Beyers. Probably no Lanerie style disaster with Stevens on board the closer. Danzing Candy looks like the lone speed except for Iron Rob who is stretching out with first route on dirt and is likely to fade. These horses are pretty obvious contenders and will surely offer stingy payouts. Thanks muchly for the PPs and info. Very generous of you. Good Luck.
I am not feeling it with Danzing Candy. Denman's Call (on the rail) and Iron Rob are stretching out. Smokey Image may get a little better start this time. An extra 1/16th of a mile. I think the pace will be honest for the pressers/closers routers to pounce late. I am leaning to Exaggerator and Mor Spirit, but the race looks like a chalky 3 horse field.
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Weather may be an issue at all three races this weekend. AQU and KEE will be colder (~mid40's) with rain/snow/freezing possible for Friday and maybe into Saturday. SA will likely be moist/wet for Friday and Saturday. As BBB stated earlier IANAM.
And I am a meteorinarian.
Quote: DrawingDeadSomething to keep in mind for the Wood Memorial on Saturday is that the Aqueduct track many of them have been running on is NOT the Aqueduct track they are about to run on now. They've made the seasonal move of AQU racing from the inner "all-weather" track to the outer dirt course. It matters.
And I am a meteorinarian.
This is a very good point.
I personally believe this change from Fall--->Winter--->Spring is one reason the New York preps have not had a bigger impact on the Kentucky Derby recently. The main track running is also why I have discounted the speed horses in the race: Matt King Coal (distance challenged?) and Outwork (shipping in from the TBay Derby). I really liked the visual of the TBay Derby and the record time by Destin. I am very reluctant to leave Outwork out of the Wood win picture (Johnny V's presence is also worth mentioning). But Shagaf has already won on the inner and main track in Jamaica NY. Flexibility has already won on the inner and had 2 runner up finishes over the main track (to Mohaymen both times and one time at 11/8mile).
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I incorrectly posted the running time of the Santa Anita Derby earlier. It is actually listed @ ~3:30pmPST.
Quote: theotherguyNyquist led every step of the way until the 8th pole, when he hit another gear and accelerated away from the field. Even racing greenly at the 1/16 pole, he left no doubt who was the best horse that day. A performance like that and he will be wearing roses on the first Saturday in May.
You say Nyquist hit another gear and accelerated away from the field but actually what happened is that he slowed down less than the other horses. When you see what seems to be horses accelerating during the stretch drive it is almost always an optical illusion; they almost always are at their fastest for the first half mile and run decreasingly slower after that. In the Florida Derby Nyquist did the last furlong in 12.73 which is not quick and the last 3 furlongs in a slow 37.72. Having said this I tend to agree with you that he is a very impressive horse. He only showed quickness in his turn time in 3 races and all of them were sprints. As impressive as he is I have to say that so far he has really been unchallenged particularly down the stretch. I have this nagging feeling about him that he has not really proved himself yet. Everyone was expecting Mohaymen to get in his face for a stretch duel but Mohaymen was off his game. I think there is a good chance that in the KY Derby there will be 19 or 20 horses in the field and one or two or three of them is going to like the extra eighth of a mile (compared to the longest distance they have ever run before.) He is surely an impressive horse and he is also surely not anywhere close to being a lock to grab the roses.
For those other horsey places: soups on! Good luck with that.
ooops! I forgot to mention Exaggerator. Hope you guys had him. Danzing Candy went out too fast; did the first quarter in 22 something; then tired.
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Aqueduct Wood Memorial: Outwork won.
Keeneland Blue Grass: Brody's Cause won.
Santa Anita Derby: Exaggerator won.
From 6f to 1/8 pole he ran a 24 flat. Then finished last 1/8 in 13 and 2/5 despite being under a long hold late. Definetly a horse to be reckoned with in the Derby.
Keeneland - The Lexington
- One More Round 6.6f
- Direct Message 7.5f
- Lomcevak 7.0f
- Swipe 7.1f
- Synchrony 7.0f
- Big Squeeze 7.9f
- Call the Colonel 6.8f
- Riker 6.9f
- Yo Carm 6.8f
- Collected 6.7f
Ehh. Most look either a bit slow, or likely to be rather short for moving on to the next one. Good luck.
Oaklawn Park - The Arkansas Derby
- Discreetness 6.5f
- Cutacorner 7.0f
- Creator 7.8f
- Suddenbreakingnews 7.4f
- American Pioneer 7.3f
- Unbridled Outlaw 7.1f
- Dazzling Gem 6.9f
- Whitmore 7.5f
- Luna de Loco 6.9f
- Cupid 7.2f
- Gray Sky 7.4f
- Gettysburg 7.5f
With a few others here, I'm potentially interested in Catalano's colt American Pioneer at Hot Springs if he goes off at a generous price on Saturday.
The Lexington is interesting. A few seem to be trying the last chance opportunity to make the big race. If they win (earning 10 points) Swipe or Riker could enter the Top 25 for the Derby. They would likely still need defections to make the Derby gate.
Lexington past performances (click on Collected's Ultimate pps link):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htm
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The Arkansas Derby is deep. A number of runners could make some noise in the Derby if they get in.
Arkansas past performances (click on Cupid's Ultimate pps link):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htm
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The Tampa Bay preps (Sam F Davis, Tampa Bay Derby) have been quite productive for this year's 3yo crop.
-Sam F Davis: Destin won the TB Derby. Rafting 4th in the TB Derby. Morning Fire won the Spectacular Bid Stakes. Gettysburg 2nd in "Sunland Derby". Whatawonderflworld 2nd in the John Battaglia.
-Tampa Bay Derby: Outwork won the Wood. Brody's Cause won the Blue Grass.
Interviewing jockeys often seems to result in yet another repeat performance of the same old Saturday Night Live script, and remains just as enlightening as it was the first 637 times::
Quote:I'm here in the winner's circle with victorious rider Chico Esquella. Chico, how does it feel to cap your remarkable year with a big win in the prestigious Urinal Cup on the final day? “Tank-you. Baysbowl haw bean berry berry goot to me.”
It looked like you might be trapped in tight quarters behind the tiring pacesetters coming into the stretch; so tell us about your trip. “Berry nice horse. Baysbowl bean berry berry goot to me.”
With the way he ran today, do you think he'll handle more distance? ”Nice horse. Tank-you for let me ride heem, Meester Jones. Baysbowl berry goot to me. Tank-you. Tank-you berry much.”
-editing mine-Quote: DrawingDeadWith Catalano's colt off the board, that exacta payout just saved my assets at Hot Springs.
-snip-
I also caught the exacta in the Ark Derby. Arkansas Derby video:
My Derby stable is pretty light this year. Only have Suddenbreakingnews, Majesto, and Mo Tom. Mo Tom will need help to get into the race. At this point I do not believe any of the three are fast enough to actually capture the roses. But there is still 3 weeks to improve. A few more workouts, a couple of gallops, the gate draw, and weather watching to factor into the big race...
Most recent Derby point leaderboard (pdf):
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/20160416_Road_to_the_Kentucky_Derby_Point_Standings.pdf
24 horses can enter the race but only 20 can run on May 7th.
Of course, after the Oaklawn race the probability that I'll be cashing on that second one is approximately zero. But with the information available at the time, I don't really regret the wager at that price. I do like the other new fellow in the barn via Tampa, and he's frolicking in the back while the other three I have seem to have all come down with a bad case of colic.
Quote: DrawingDeadYeah, my future book barn is more quiet this year than I can ever recall at this point. On Saturday morning I doubled my stable. From two to four. Before the weekend's prep stakes I checked the lines and found Westgate was an outlier to the lines from others. They were selling several of their house-banked Derby future interests at double what I've been seeing from others (and some others at about half the odds of some Las Vegas books), and I took Destin at 20/1 from them, and American Pioneer at 100/1. This compares to Destin 10/1 & Am. Pi. 50/1 from William Hill (at that time), for example.
Of course, after the Oaklawn race the probability that I'll be cashing on that second one is approximately zero. But with the information available at the time, I don't really regret the wager at that price. I do like the other new fellow in the barn via Tampa, and he's frolicking in the back while the other three I have seem to have all come down with a bad case of colic.
Westgate did not offer Derby futures until very late in the process this year (maybe late March?). Not sure why. I had a number of tickets with them last year but zero this year.
4 out of 20 ain't bad. I am starting to wonder what Destin's odds will be in the Derby. I am also curious to see who will ride him...
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AFAIK, of the runners in the Top 20 only 2 have yet to really commit to the race. Cupid and Trojan Nation.
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**Breaking news** Songbird will not run in the Kentucky Oaks after spiking a low grade fever.
http://www.drf.com/news/preview/cupid-miss-kentucky-derby-point-preakness
The Preakness could be a solid event this year. A number of late bloomers and a tough Derby point system in 2016 may lead to a very full field. Who knows, Songbird may now be pointed to the race...
Mo Tom (which is positive for my Derby barn) is now #20 and in the Derby.
- 7.4f, 4.0m - Gun Runner
- 6.5f, 4.0m - Nyquist
- 7.3f, 3.3m - Exaggerator
- 7.2f, 4.0m - Outwork
- 7.9f, 2.0m - Brody's Cause
- 7.8f, 4.0m - Creator
- 7.9f, 3.3m - Lani
- 7.5f, 1.7m - Mor Spirit
- 7.2f, 3.7m - Mohaymen
- 6.5f, 4.0m - Danzig Candy
- 7.7f, 2.3m - Destin
- 7.4f, 3.0m - Suddenbreakingnews
- 8.2f, 2.0m - Oscar Nominated
- 7.5f, 4.7m - Shagaf
- 7.5f, 3.0m - Whitmore
- 7.2f, 3.3m - Tom's Ready
- 7.6f, 4.0m - My Man Sam
- 7.5f, 2.7m - Majesto
- 7.9f, 2.7m - Trojan Nation
- 6.8f, 3.0m - Mo Tom
- 6.5f, 2.3m - Fellowship
- 6.9f, 3.0m - Adventist
- 6.6f, 4.0m - Laoban
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A number of Jockey changes have been mentioned here and there.
Whitmore - V. Espinoza (I. Ortiz rode in his last race)
My Man Sam - I. Ortiz (J. Leparoux rode in his last race)
Shagaf - J. Rosario (I. Ortiz rode in his last race)
Oscar Nominated - J. Leparoux (B. Hernandez rode in his last race)
Early Brisnet pps for Kentucky Derby #142:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerby16.pdf
A number of jockeys are unnamed and the horses are listed by Derby points earned.
California-->New York-->California-->Kentucky all in about a month. He will also face 19 "winners" in the Derby. IMO, he should be 99/1++ in the Derby, even if the track is sloppy. But he has the points so...
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Early weather reports are looking good for no rain.
http://www.drf.com/derby-watch
Despite being 5 wide on the turn, drifting out and racing greenly in the stretch and finishing late on a long hold. In the Santa Anita Derby.
Typical DRF Byers figures touts. If they like a horse with best Byers, he will win. If they don't like the horse with Best Byers, just ignore him.
EXAGGERATOR >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Mohaymen
Xpressbet.com Fountain of Youth S.
Gulfstream Park
02/27/2016
115
Zulu
Xpressbet.com Fountain of Youth S.
Gulfstream Park
02/27/2016
111
Unified
Bay Shore S.
Aqueduct
04/09/2016
111
Destin
Sam F. Davis S.
Tampa Bay
02/13/2016
110
Shagaf
Gotham S.
Aqueduct
03/05/2016
110
Danzing Candy
San Felipe S.
Santa Anita
03/12/2016
110
J R 's Holiday
Kitten's Joy S.
Gulfstream Park
01/30/2016
109
Don't Be So Salty
Kitten's Joy S.
Gulfstream Park
01/30/2016
108
Mor Spirit
Robert B. Lewis S.
Santa Anita
02/06/2016
108
Suddenbreakingnews
Southwest S.
Oaklawn Park
02/15/2016
108
Laoban
Gotham S.
Aqueduct
03/05/2016
108
Imperial Hint
Ocala Breeders' Sales Sophomore S.
Tampa Bay
04/09/2016
108
-
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Here are the Kentucky Oaks pps:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYOaks16.pdf
No Songbird has resulted in a full field (14 fillies + 1 also eligible). Pretty wide open without Songbird. I like Go Maggie Go best. Rachel's Valentina and Lewis Bay should also be present at the end of the 11/8 mile race.
Tomorrow, at Churchill in a 5 furlong juvenile stakes matchup, Lady Aurelia is running. She is an 8/5 shot who set a track record at Keeneland for 4.5 furlongs in her first and only race. Maybe the final odds won't be too stingy on her because she's running against colts.
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerby16.pdf
Kentucky Derby 142:
1. Trojan Nation, A. Gryder, 50-1 - 7.9f, 2.7m - Trojan Nation
2. Suddenbreakingnews, L. Quinonez, 20-1 - 7.4f, 3.0m - Suddenbreakingnews
3. Creator, R. Santana, 10-1 - 7.8f, 4.0m - Creator
4. Mo Tom, C. Lanerie, 20-1 - 6.8f, 3.0m - Mo Tom
5. Gun Runner, F. Geroux, 10-1 - 7.4f, 4.0m - Gun Runner
6. My Man Sam, I. Ortiz, 20-1 - 7.6f, 4.0m - My Man Sam
7. Oscar Nominated, J. Leparoux, 50-1 - 8.2f, 2.0m - Oscar Nominated
8. Lani, Y. Take, 30-1 - 7.9f, 3.3m - Lani
9. Destin, J. Castellano, 15-1 - 7.7f, 2.3m - Destin
10. Whitmore, V. Espinoza, 20-1 - 7.5f, 3.0m - Whitmore
11. Exaggerator, K. Desormeaux, 8-1 - 7.3f, 3.3m - Exaggerator
12. Tom’s Ready, B. Hernandez, 30-1 - 7.2f, 3.3m - Tom's Ready
13. Nyquist, M. Gutierez, 3-1 - 6.5f, 4.0m - Nyquist
14. Mohaymen, J. Alvarado, 10-1 - 7.2f, 3.7m - Mohaymen
15. Outwork, J. Velazquez, 15-1 - 7.2f, 4.0m - Outwork
16. Shagaf, J. Rosario, 20-1 - 7.5f, 4.7m - Shagaf
17. Mor Spirit, G. Stevens, 12-1 - 7.5f, 1.7m - Mor Spirit
18. Majesto, E. Jaramillo, 30-1 - 7.5f, 2.7m - Majesto
19. Brody’s Cause, L. Saez, 12-1 - 7.9f, 2.0m - Brody's Cause
20. Danzing Candy, M. Smith, 15-1 - 6.5f, 4.0m - Danzig Candy
Also eligible:
21. Laoban, C. Velasquez, 50-1 - 6.6f, 4.0m - Laoban
22. Cherry Wine, R. Albarado, 30-1 - 7.3f* (posted earlier in the thread) - Cherry Wine
I have taken the liberty of adding DrawingDeads AWD's (average winner distance) and mud proclivity alongside the posts and jockeys. Where you at DD? Are you just going to bet Nyquist/ALL/Creator? :) :) :)
Eliminated from being taken seriously by me, due to especially poor (downright weird) behavior & works on the track: Lani. Just hope he isn't such a nutcase that he creams part of the field at the break. He seems to be in need of some kind of anti-psychotic meds, so he's apparently practicing to become an "AP" when this whole running in circles thing doesn't work out.
Quote: DrawingDeadI'm skulking around in the back of Doug O'Neil & Dallas Stewart's barns with a vicious rabid milkshake sniffing dog. And if Nyquist gets enough of the distance and/or a soft enough pace to hit the board, I'll be panhandling to buy the new costume I'll be needing to begin my career as a Las Vegas street performer & water bottle salesman.
Eliminated from being taken seriously by me, due to especially poor (downright weird) behavior & works on the track: Lani. Just hope he isn't such a nutcase that he creams part of the field at the break. He seems to be in need of some kind of anti-psychotic meds, so he's apparently practicing to become an "AP" when this whole running in circles thing doesn't work out.
Make sure to have your bloodhound sniff around the Asmussen stalls a little. There is a whole angle on inducted into the HOF and winning the Derby...
Lani is the only grey I do not care for, but maybe he is a freak. Apparently he is a real "stud". A rock out with his c**k out type horse.
Pokey on Fremont might do well?
Creator must be one of the most untalked about 2nd favorites (along with Mohaymen) in history. This guy closes from way back. The opening remark in his last chart is that he was "devoid of speed."
I was preferring Destin, but reports that I've seen on his final work and the only one at Churchill are only okay to so-so.
Those I'm most interested in at this point include: Creator, Destin, Gun Runner, and perhaps Suddenbreakingnews. At least two of those would require a fair bit of luck to get a clean trip and run their best race. And I'd really like Laoban to scratch in as the first on the AE list, for a greater likelihood of a serious pace for the distance, unlike the last two years for this event.
On a good note a lady bought GR as a 5 year old, skin and bones, back full of sores, converted him to a hunter and he won over 100 blue ribbons.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/05/sports/horse-racing/lani-japan-kentucky-derby-long-shot.html?_r=0
Click HereQuote: speedycrapWho has the Derby PP please?
And for those of you who are interested, the post positions for the Kentucky Oaks
Quote: DrawingDeadThose that appear to have produced a clear consensus of opinion just on their local workouts and appearance moving over the track (including nothing else such as pedigree, distance, class, etc) among professional clockers and the most specialized part of the media covering them full time (and not from using my own observation or necessarily indicating any overall opinion on their chances of winning): Creator and Outwork (and perhaps Shagaf in appearance) on the clearly positive side; while on the negative end Lani has lapped the field in winning the pre-race dunce cap.
I was preferring Destin, but reports that I've seen on his final work and the only one at Churchill are only okay to so-so.
Those I'm most interested in at this point include: Creator, Destin, Gun Runner, and perhaps Suddenbreakingnews. At least two of those would require a fair bit of luck to get a clean trip and run their best race. And I'd really like Laoban to scratch in as the first on the AE list, for a greater likelihood of a serious pace for the distance, unlike the last two years for this event.
Creator has definitely been the "buzz" horse in the recent weeks reports on the blogs and websites. A little cold water was thrown on him when he drew post #3 yesterday.
Outwork is a large animal, reminds me of Dortmund a little (high cruising speed) but with an improved pedigree.
Gun Runner absolutely got the best draw (#5) in my opinion. He has really no speed around him and he could secure a nice pressing spot inside (saving ground) for his grinding/mild closer style of running.
2 horses that I feel are real wild cards in this race are Destin and Mo Tom:
Destin
Positives - 2 great races @ Tampa, horses he beat have showed up after Tampa, great jockey riding, solid pedigree (AWD), perfect running style for Derby (tactical speed/presser), great post position (#9).
Negatives - 2 month layoff, Pletcher (although he does do very well with long layoff), so-so recent workouts, never run past 11/16mile.
Mo Tom
Positives - I am not sure we have seen his best all around race, his Lecomte win was excellent, I think he has the most impressive turn of foot late in all the preps, win @ CD, solid works @ CD.
Negatives - 6 weeks off, Louisiana Derby does not produce many Derby winners, poor post (#4), low AWD pedigree, may not be fast enough even with added distance.
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5 runners I just can not make a real case for:
Trojan Nation, Oscar Nominated, Danzing Candy, Tom's Ready, Lani (based on his studishness), Laoban (if he draws in).