2016 Kentucky Derby

I really wiffed on the Rebel (see earlier Siding Spring comments). Great race by Cupid making the lead then fending off a real challenge by Whitmore. I also feel the race was deep and the Arkansas Derby is setting up nicely. The first three preps for the Arkansas Derby have been won by different runners (Smarty Jones - Discreetness, Southwest - Suddenbreakingnews, Rebel - Cupid). Does this mean the fields are evenly matched or is there a real star in the making (or two)? The Ark Derby hopefully will shed more light on the subject.

Collected and Gettysburg ran 1st and 2nd in the Sunland Park Equine Virus Stakes. Nice paychecks, but no Derby points earned. One (or both) could turn up in another prep.

Quote: DrawingDead

The Asmussen entry in the Rebel is starting to tempt me. Probably a hazardous side-effect of squinting at it too much. But Keeneone would like the look of them; he'll know what I mean by that. Hint: both by Tapit, and carrying a certain distinctive Tapit feature.
-snip-

Quote: DrawingDead

AWD's for the pedigrees of those that hit the board:
#4 - Cupid 7.2f
#10 - Whitmore 7.5f
#1 - Creator 7.8f

-post editing mine-
I guess the feature was their color? Seemed like every other runner in the Rebel was a grey/roan...
Based on the AWD, the Asmussen comment, and his performance, I would guess you like the look of Creator. I looked around at his odds yesterday and they dropped quickly from before to after (175/150-1 to 40/30-1). Cherry Wine and Suddenbreakingnews also ran good IMO. Both were coming late with mild moves on the far turn.

Yeah, it wasn't until a couple of hours after I said that when I realized five greys were in that race. Four of them are sons of Tapit.

It's official. The two unbeatens, Nyquist and Mohaymen will duel in the April 2 Florida Derby at Gulfstream.
Jay Privman of the DRF said he believes its the only time in history that no. 1 and no. 2 contenders have met in a Derby prep race.
In the Breeders Cup Juvenile Nyquist was bumped hard at the break, bumped again a few strides later and then came from way off the pace, which is not his style, to score in a field of 14.
It impressed the hell out of me.
Fasten your seat belts.

UAE Derby ~6:35am Pacific
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/UAEDerby16.pdf
Frank Conversation is the lone US shipper for D O'Neill. Polar River is an undefeated filly going against the boys. Vale Dori (ARG) is also a filly, a "4 year old", and is giving 10 lbs (again) to Polar River. They represent the top 2 favorites in this race. The girls are going wild in Dubai...
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LA Derby 3:12pm Pacific
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/LADerby16.pdf
I am pulling for Mo Tom and Battery here (I have future wagers on both). The shape of the race is hard to predict. Candy My Boy will likely be on the lead, but after that I just do not get a good picture of the race. Greenpointcrusader could make some noise and flatter Mohaymen. Battery has won @ 1 ^1/8 mile (small ALW field @ GStream with a nice time), and Mo Tom is a closing freight train. Strangely, Mo Tom is the morning line favorite even though Gun Runner won last out. Cappers somehow overvalue "troubled trips" vs. actual winners...

Mo Tom's trainer Thomas Amoss has won 46 out of 134 races in 2016 or 34%. His horses have been in the money 66% of the time.
That's too good. Suspicious.
He's been cited for multiple violations. Was suspended last July.
The stats I got were from Equibase.

Quote: lilredrooster

Mo Tom's trainer Thomas Amoss has won 46 out of 134 races in 2016 or 34%. His horses have been in the money 66% of the time.
That's too good. Suspicious.
He's been cited for multiple violations. Was suspended last July.
The stats I got were from Equibase.

And he still has never won the Louisiana Derby...

I don't know what to make of Amoss, along with most at Fair Grounds; the track is often inscrutable to me. Which is why I wager there gingerly, if at all. And I even lived there once many moons ago. I believe it is necessary, for me at least, to follow a particular circuit and the individuals on it closely over a significant period of time to know what's up, and I haven't done that there. With that said, from the little I've read specifically on him (not having gone into much depth & so quite possibly missing some major parts of it) I understand his violations were for overages of therapeutic medications. That can be interpreted as relatively innocent small mistakes on the part of an honest trainer, or alternatively depending on context, in some cases some legitimate therapeutics might be used to mask something else entirely. I dunno.

I have much more definite strong concerns along those lines about two other high-profile trainers, based in SoCal, who unfortunately have major contenders again this year. Doug O'Neill required special action by the CHRB to have his license temporarily reinstated so he could send his horse last time he had a real live one for this. Look up the term "milkshaking" if you'd like to know what that was about. A pretty sickening thing to do to any living animal, and there is no supposedly legitimate therapeutic excuse for it, ever. It usually starts by forcefully shoving a tube down the throat then pumping in a semi-liquid witches brew chemical mixture.... and it gets worse.

Quote: Paulick Report

Those initial high TCO2 tests in California were not prosecuted. Since then, the CHRB has only reported a handful of TCO2 violations, and three of them belong to O'Neill.

And in an attempt not to be totally a Debby Downer in your thread today, I won't go on to repeat all of what I had to say in this forum last year about Bob 'Clever Chemist' Baffert, with the large number of dead horses and peculiar necropsy (autopsy) results and all. None of it was about wishing him a happy birthday.

The drug pushers only get disciplined with racing.
Cheating at a gambling game is a felony.
Maybe they should be led away from their barns in handcuffs.

I'm very down wit dat. But then I'd also go for certain deserving two legged animals having a tube shoved into an orifice with fizzing chemicals, or force fed cobalt and thyroid hormones until they drop dead from cardiac arrest. Eye for an eye and all. Besides being a wonderful intellectual gambling challenge, I'm firstly attracted to the inherent beauty of the sport, I like those wonderful animals for their own sake, so I get medieval like that on the topic. But short of getting all 8th century for that, handcuffs would do nicely. I think there's actually some precedent for it. I believe there was a case along those lines that was prosecuted under federal law; I want
to say involving one of the Pennsylvania tracks, I think perhaps involving someone at PennNat'l, but I'm not sure I've got that right. It may have been the "veterinarian(s)" involved with the trainer(s), but I'm not sure if I'm recalling it correctly.

A bit of a trivia tangent. Pat Valenzuela has sunk into obscurity now, and last I heard was scuffling to pick up occasional cheap mounts at 3rd rate tracks down in the Louisiana bayou country, and/or semi "retired" in a not so voluntary kind of way. But he was spectacularly successful and famous for being a very talented rider back in the day not so long ago. Won the biggest races there are. And he also was a notoriously hopeless dope fiend no matter the consequences. Terrific with horses at the highest level, and also likely to be a danger to himself and everyone around him, all at once on any given day, depending on what substance he'd gotten into the night before.

On one of his many probationary interludes between suspensions (I think it was about 15 years ago) the Santa Anita stewards had an agreement that in exchange for letting him back on the grounds he'd have to be routinely drug tested any time he was entered to compete, just like the four legged athletes under him. After one such test there was good news, and bad news, and other good news. The good news was that his urine sample contained no prohibited substances. And the bad news was that he was not the same species and sex listed in the program. The lab determined that his supposed sample of bodily fluid was that of a female horse. And the other good news was that he was in-foal (pregnant). As I recall PVal said he had no idea how such a thing could possibly have happened, a mystery to him and it must've been some kind of mix-up that wasn't his fault. The stewards were not amused.

The vets must be involved too.
Totally disgusting.
Their supposed purpose in life is to care for animals.

Just finished watching California Chrome cruise to victory (with a slipped saddle) in the $10 million Dubai World Cup. He is going to be one tough older horse this season. Mubtaahij ran second.

Lani won the UAE Derby in an close and exciting finish. I wonder if they will ship him over for the Derby? Frank Conversation ran last (insert milkshake joke here*).

LA Derby coming up later. Anyone playing the mandatory payout Rainbow Pick 6 @ Gulfstream today?

Quote: lilredrooster

Thanks for that info Drawing Dead and ThatDonGuy. That info suggests a strategy that I never knew about.
If you had bet on a horse other than Songbird to show in that race and he does show you would get a fair payout even if Songbird
was in the money. But if Songbird was out of the money then you would get a gigantic payout. Unless I'm
still not understanding but I think I am. Just as an aside West Virginia requires a minimum $2.20 payout on any show bet.
Not that I'm planning to start a new career as a show plunger. But hey, the profit is double if your on the monster
horse. I'll pass.

Today, Aqueduct, Race #3:

Equibase result chart

I'm easily amused, so for me that was fun, and rewarding.

Quote: DrawingDead

Today, Aqueduct, Race #3:

Equibase result chart

I'm easily amused, so for me that was fun, and rewarding.

Awesome. She ran like I had $100 to win on her. Fortunately, I did not even see this race. I love the comment line...sputtered...
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Another nice win for Gun Runner today even if the final time was unimpressive. He had no competition late. I am not one to blame jockeys for losing races but Mo Tom's ride was bad. Mo Tom may not have beaten Gun Runner but he has never got the chance in his last 2 races. Poor ride by C. Lanerie today. He really could have hurt himself, his mount, and many others very badly with a move like that. Lanerie owned it after the race and Amoss (trainer) was befuddled (to put it nicely) by the ride. What do we make of Mo Tom at this point? His fourth place likely gets him into the Derby gate but is he remotely good enough? I just do not know at this point. Is Mike Smith available for the mount on this deep closer?

Louisiana Derby:

Quote: DrawingDead

On one of his many probationary interludes between suspensions (I think it was about 15 years ago) the Santa Anita stewards had an agreement that in exchange for letting him back on the grounds he'd have to be routinely drug tested any time he was entered to compete, just like the four legged athletes under him. After one such test there was good news, and bad news, and other good news. The good news was that his urine sample contained no prohibited substances. And the bad news was that he was not the same species and sex listed in the program. The lab determined that his supposed sample of bodily fluid was that of a female horse. And the other good news was that he was in-foal (pregnant). As I recall PVal said he had no idea how such a thing could possibly have happened, a mystery to him and it must've been some kind of mix-up that wasn't his fault. The stewards were not amused.

One of the reason ONTARIO went to swabbing the mouth .... be amazed how many harness folks left the game when they knew that testing was coming out.

and here is a little write up on horse doping in Canada

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/horse-doping-case-heads-to-supreme-court-and-despite-video-evidence-a-conviction-may-not-be-straightforward

Quote: Keeneone

...<SNIP>... I love the comment line...sputtered...

I prefer to think of it as "Miss Politeness graciously invited all the assembled guests to move ahead to the front of the line for the paycheck buffet."

Quote: Keeneone

...<SNIP>...

What do we make of Mo Tom at this point? His fourth place likely gets him into the Derby gate but is he remotely good enough? I just do not know at this point. Is Mike Smith available for the mount on this deep closer?

My opinion, he most likely will not be a deep closer at a mile and a quarter. At 10 furlongs I think he's more likely to be an "I'm spitting out the bit when you ask for run in this crowded stretch because I wanna go home now; this was supposed to be over back there and I don't feel so good." The pedigree AWD calculations for the La. Derby superfecta:

1st - Gun Runner 7.4f
2nd - Tom's Ready 7.2f
3rd - Dazzling Gem 6.9f
4th - Mo Tom 6.8f

I'll be interested to see what Beyer gives it. I'm not sure. That FG surface usually tends to be very slow, but I think the track may have been even a little bit more dull than an average day. The Grade 2 New Orleans Hcp for older experienced stakes runners at the same 9 furlong distance looked likely to produce something in the upper 90's or so, perhaps 100-ish, from the likes of Eagle, Majestic Harbor, and International Star (who won the Louisiana Derby a year ago). The N'awlins Hcp was run exactly (down to the hundredth of a second) one second faster than this Grade 2 for 3 year-olds, by a 20/1 shot with a feather on his back kicking away from the big boys. Hmmm. Could be fish or fowl.

[EDIT: Housekeeping remark deleted, drippy faucet fixed.]

Link to Louisiana Derby video should be fixed now. Thanks.

Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
My opinion, he most likely will not be a deep closer at a mile and a quarter. At 10 furlongs I think he's more likely to be an "I'm spitting out the bit when you ask for run in this crowded stretch because I wanna go home now; this was supposed to be over back there and I don't feel so good." The pedigree AWD calculations for the La. Derby superfecta:

1st - Gun Runner 7.4f
2nd - Tom's Ready 7.2f
3rd - Dazzling Gem 6.9f
4th - Mo Tom 6.8f
-snip-

Now that you have said Mo Tom will "spit the bit", I am much more confident in betting the house on him in the Derby. :) :) :)
As you have stated earlier, Uncle Mo is a young sire with unproven progeny. I understand why many will want to toss the LA Derby runners this year (and based on past Kentucky Derby performances out of the race), but be careful. Mo Tom has won at CD in a stakes. Gun Runner and Tom's Ready also ran well there last year. Have they grown and improved since then, we shall see...

Quote: Keeneone

Now that you have said Mo Tom will "spit the bit", I am much more confident in betting the house on him in the Derby. :) :) :)

I agree. And I am totally in favor of betting your house on him.

Quote: DrawingDead

I agree. And I am totally in favor of betting your house on him.

Do you think William Hill will allow me to bet my travel trailer on him?

Seriously, the 6 weeks off in between the Louisiana Derby and the big race is one issue. Maybe it is too long to be properly trained up...

How spiffy is your travel trailer? William Hill once froze my account for a little while (maybe 20-30 minutes) with a message screen popping up over the app informing me that my request to book a wager was being reviewed for supervisory approval before I could continue to use their services. It was a future book wager for < $100 (don't remember on what, maybe baseball Pennant or Championship at mid double digits). Egads. Other things being equal, I usually prefer to bet my recreational vehicles, propane accessories, hubcaps, sofa cushion change and assorted tool shed contents through Westgate and Wynn's (brand new) apps nowadays, in that order.

EDIT to add: You made me look. According to Brisnet's trainer database stats as of the close of calendar year 2015 inclusive, Amoss has a 29% win rate with a layoff >30 and <90 days, compared to his nearly identical overall rate for all runners of 30% among 979 starters. But, he's 26% in routes vs. 32% in sprints, and 28% stretching out vs. 53% (sheesh!) shortening up. Of course those are all ridiculously high compared to an average journeyman trainer, but I think those differentials still amount to a non-trivial indication of what he's best at preparing his stock to do. His win rate specifically at Churchill is noticeably less stratospheric than overall, at 19% in routes and 21% overall in a sample size of 134 starters at CD. And, those less elevated percentages at CD occurred at a track that has a significantly smaller average field size (for normal workaday race cards) than the larger average fields where he puts up higher numbers for win percentage. I don't have the stats on field sizes at hand right this moment to quantify that aspect, but I'm pretty confident of the direction even if I can't lay hands on the magnitude of the average difference right now. I can think of a variety of possible interpretations of that, some of which could relate to lilredrooster's earlier remarks on Amoss, but for me to take it any further I'd really be reaching and speculating.

You're right Keeneone, Lanerie's ride sucked with a capital S. Cost me some !*#!*!&!*! money. Can't claim I'm a man with high morals betting on Mo Tom after talking down Amoss. Anyway, I have an excuse, I was blinded by the dream of easy money. Like this is easy. Looking forward I posted nicely about Nyquist but I watched replays and I have to give the nod to Mohaymen. Nyquist looked like he was working very hard down the stretch. Mohaymen looked like he was having a party. Looked like he had a lot left in the tank if Junior ever has to push the button on his turbo booster. Because Nyquist is there you might be able to get 6/5 on Mohaymen. If Nyquist wasn't there he'd probably be 1/20. Can't pay bills on 6/5 but fun to watch. Hope it doesn't rain.

When dice setters lose it is because the throw was off axis. When a horse does not win despite superior Byers, he bounced.l

So Buzzard, er, excuse me make that "gsiyhz" will undoubtedly be pleased to hear that Gun Runner's time resulted in a 91 speed figure from Beyer. With the New Orleans Handicap getting a 100 with International Star and Eagle both on the board at 96 in that one, this strikes me as about right, probably a reasonably accurate indication of how they went on the surface that day. And in most years that would be about 7 or 8 lengths behind what it would take to get your picture taken in the feature race at Churchill in May.

Is Moses available for the mount on a late stretch runner out of that scrum?

Thanks for those trainer stats and Beyer numbers. I am moving on from the Lousy-iana Derby...
Next weekend: Florida Derby and Spiral Stakes. Also the fourth and last Kentucky Derby Future wager pool.

The Florida Derby has draw 10 (yes 10!) runners for Saturday. I was expecting 4-5, but a million dollar race is a million dollar race. Mohaymen vs Nyquist and they may benefit from the experience of the larger field.
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While I was looking into the Florida Derby I noticed this:

Takeittotheedge (entered into the Florida Derby)
March 5 GS #6 7F MSW (120lbs) - Times: 23:04 46:24 1:10.94 Final: 1:23.58 (88 Beyer)

Lightstream (Filly)
March 6 GS #6 7F MSW (120lbs) - Times: 22:64 46:05 1:11.18 Final: 1:23.79 (103 Beyer)

-Lightstream earned the highest Beyer of any 3 year old this year. Both races look so similar on paper and are only 1 day apart. What is the best explanation for the big difference? I will guess a large speed bias on the 5th or a large speed bias on the 6th that Lightstream overcame from off the pace.

Some of the late entrants in the Fla. Derby look a lot like Gulfstream Park's Racing Secretary made some calls in the last few days...

Quote:

So, Vinny, I see you've been taking up space and not running much. Ya like having stall space here? There's a race late afternoon Saturday I gotta try to fill. It would be in your interest to find something to help me fill it. Something with four legs, age three, and the first part is optional. Thanks, much appreciated.

I plan to bet against Nyquist, if the tote board offers a sensible opportunity to do so. I'm not nearly as much inclined as many others seem to be to think that he's necessarily even 2nd or 3rd here.

Quote: Keeneone

The Florida Derby has draw 10 (yes 10!) runners for Saturday. I was expecting 4-5, but a million dollar race is a million dollar race. Mohaymen vs Nyquist and they may benefit from the experience of the larger field.
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While I was looking into the Florida Derby I noticed this:

Takeittotheedge (entered into the Florida Derby)
March 5 GS #6 7F MSW (120lbs) - Times: 23:04 46:24 1:10.94 Final: 1:23.58 (88 Beyer)

Lightstream (Filly)
March 6 GS #6 7F MSW (120lbs) - Times: 22:64 46:05 1:11.18 Final: 1:23.79 (103 Beyer)

-Lightstream earned the highest Beyer of any 3 year old this year. Both races look so similar on paper and are only 1 day apart. What is the best explanation for the big difference? I will guess a large speed bias on the 5th or a large speed bias on the 6th that Lightstream overcame from off the pace.

I'm confused. Speed figures attempt to adjust the times for changes in the surface and environmental conditions from day to day and track to track, including such things as water & wind & etc. which can easily amount to three or five or eight or even ten lengths, and a full second or more on the timer, from one day to another, and that kind of difference should not be surprising. To evaluate the difference in those figs for similar final times, look at them in the context of other races on the card on each of those different days.

But if you are looking to quantify the effect of trip and/or what is usually meant by the term "speed bias" then one should be looking elsewhere. A variant to arrive at a figure adjusting the nominal time is not to 'rate' what the trip or bias encountered indicates about ability. TimeformUS produces some numerical ratings (on a scale to 140) that attempt to quantitatively do some of that, especially the effect of pace, and you might find them interesting, if that's what you're after. And they've posted them free of charge for the Derby qualifying races. But that's only if someone wants to take some time to carefully read what they're doing and how, and to think it through enough to truly understand what they're up to and what it may and may not be good for. Looking for a simple number to announce "this 'best' horsey" will eventually tend to get the result it deserves - ya want somebody ta give ya a pony, git yo momma ta give ya a pony. Ain't no such thing, with a number or otherwise, at the track.

Accuweather is calling for thunderstorms and showers tomorrow afternoon in Hallandale Fl.

Quote: lilredrooster

Accuweather is calling for thunderstorms and showers tomorrow afternoon in Hallandale Fl.

Yeah, it's moist and overcast all over the place; we expect rain all weekend over most of Florida. FWIW; IANAM.

Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
I'm confused. -snip-

-editing mine-

If you are confused, then I am a lost cause. I was merely asking your opinion on the most likely reason for the 15 point Beyer difference between the 2 races. But I hear you, so no more Beyer questions from Keeneone.
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Quote: lilredrooster

Accuweather is calling for thunderstorms and showers tomorrow afternoon in Hallandale Fl.

An interesting wrinkle to the big race. On a rainy day bet the gray!
Florida Derby pps:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/FLDerby16.pdf
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The Spiral @ Turfway will be run ~2:43pm Specific tomorrow. Spiral pps:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Spiral16.pdf
Solving this pick three sequence will likely be very rewarding to the winners:
Race #8 Rushaway Stakes - 12 runners
Race #9 Bourbonette Stakes - 12 runners (+2 AE)
Race #10 Spiral Stakes - 12 runners (+2 AE)
- Morning line 3/1 favorites in each race. Good luck.

Okay, my tone was too grumpy, maybe on the edge of surly. Let me slightly rephrase that earlier longish reply: I don't know. Haven't done the work to know why, and to agree or disagree with it, and not planning to at this point. I'm mostly trying to puzzle out the grass races Saturday, but that isn't what this here is about.

While betting the gray, or the grey, or a ghey at GP tomorrow, personally I won't be surprised if it produces a peculiar eccentric looking figure, or an anomalous raw time that's out of line with others, or both, or neither. You know Gulfstream puts together these big blockbuster stakes cards with most main track races carded at the beginning, and then turf races bunched together in the second half of the day. And then, after a few hours of no races or almost none on the main track (and often the grounds crew paying no attention to it while busy with turf rails & whatnot), we have the very late afternoon to early evening (at nearly 7pm Miami time) premier race closing out the main GP meet sitting there all by itself. Do things ever change outdoors from midday to early evening in south Florida? Like anything that affects a big expanse of bare dirt sitting out there, like wind kicking up and blowing over it from different directions (and into horsey faces or backsides) later in a way that wasn't there before, or humidity or even water or more water than before coming out of the sky, maybe going from place to place unevenly, or sticky drying out dirt that was different hours earlier? I'm no Floridian, but I heard a rumor that maybe sometimes it does. So that's saying I'm ready to be totally skeptical in advance of any actual or projected times and variants and figures being applied with any pretense of precision under these circumstances, to a lonely dirt route for notoriously changeable growing adolescents stretching out (most of them) in a nearly stand-alone race like that.

So there. Since y'all didn't ask.

ADD: The BRIS pps in the links are interesting; I don't ordinarily see those.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Yeah, it's moist and overcast all over the place; we expect rain all weekend over most of Florida. FWIW; IANAM.

What is the weather-y "M" that you are not?

Signed,
Totally Stumped.

I'm guessing meteorologist.

^

*[insert yellow-faced face-palm thingy here]*

After a couple hours of cappin the Saturday races this is what I have (rain or shine, fast or muddy):

Florida Derby: #4 - Nyquist - He is the only runner with ~1.5 million reasons to win.
Spiral: #13 - Crescent Drive - if he draws into the race from the Also Eligible list.

---------

Not Derby related: The Appleton G3 @ GStream (race #8) tomorrow is one I like the look of.
Firm Turf - #4 - Long On Value
Good Turf or worse (ie. main track) #8 - Reporting Star

I think I probably see now what led to the the K.O. query that I was unfortunately gruff about. It is very relevant to the health of our precious track/book/casino bankrolls about 16 hrs. hence. My opinion, having very little to do with anyone's version of speed figures and which should probably at least be ignored if not actively faded, is that the Dale Romans colt with the name designed to torment the track announcer (T + 5 syllables) could actually be a serious factor here, while I'd guess he's being dismissed by most as a 1st out maiden sprint winner jumping into a 9 furlong Grade 1. Will he relax and rate, does he have enough 'bottom' at this point to stay a long middle distance in this company? Since Romans almost certainly doesn't know, I surely don't, but I'll pay more attention to him than some much more experienced entries. My AWD for him is 7.2 (just shy of rounding up to 7.3, like Mohaymen) which is potentially fine for middle distances up to today's 9f, in my opinion, if the fitness and basic athletic talent and equine emotional maturity is there.

Good luck to one of us. We have the most essential ingredient for a horse race: different opinions. If I'm on the race, it'll be with Mohaymen involved for at least 2nd (I do love me some Tapit), and structured in a way to get decently paid IF Nyquist is NOT in the exacta or place payouts. But the prices may be ridiculous and untouchable (at least for me) for both those wagering approaches. I would likely need something under 40% of the win pool money landing on McLaughlin's colt to find enough value either in wheeling him in multi-horse wagers or in straight place wagers, even with my assumption that it won't necessarily be a match race with O'Neill's colt. I'm not counting on getting that from the wagering pools.

That said, the point (as I took it) about Nyquist's connections likely being most highly motivated to get the money right now today, while it may be more of a prep for Mohaymen that McLaughlin & Shadwell can take or leave so long as it keeps him on track for the next one May 7th at Churchill that he's already a near lock to be in, is well taken. I won't consider a straight win wager on 'my' hoss here for that reason.

Those entered that qualify to me strictly by the pedigree numbers of my pet AWD methodology, without any regard for any other fact of ability or preparation or fitness or anything else at all, include: Majesto, Chavanes, Takeittotheedge, Mohaymen, & Isofass. Those that may or may not have qualified to me based on my AWDs but for whom I didn't bother to run the numbers because I had already first dismissed them earlier for varying other reasons are: Sawyer's Mickey, Copingaway, & Fashionable Freddy. And for good or ill, of those for which I ran the numbers, I choose to disqualify both Fellowship and Nyquist based on how I use the accumulated racing data of the progeny to evaluate their pedigrees.

Neither Mohaymen or Nyquist have ever competed on anything other than a fast track. If the track is sloppy it's possible that one or both of them won't like it. Imagine a tri with both of them out of the money. Just dreamin'.

Quote: lilredrooster

Neither Mohaymen or Nyquist have ever competed on anything other than a fast track. If the track is sloppy it's possible that one or both of them won't like it. Imagine a tri with both of them out of the money. Just dreamin'.

Track is reported good. 8 MTP. GL all!

I owe Keeneone a milkshake.

I bet Nyquist and got it right. But Mowhosis was not a good exacta or trifecta. So lost overall. Oh, well.

Well I want to publicly express my gratitude to the hyper enthusiastic racetrack degenerates of America. By betting Mohaymen down into untouchable tote board powder they saved me from throwing away a sack of my casino cash, and in spite of having the race pretty much completely upside down, I still have all the folding green stuff I had before so I can be wrong all over again in other interesting races next week. I'll get at least two bungles for the price of one! Thanks, sincerely.

Quote: DrawingDead

I owe Keeneone a milkshake.

I would prefer a root beer float (with extra cobalt for my thyroid). :):):);););)
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Florida Derby:
Nyquist won on the front end. I will likely toss him for the Derby, but he just keeps on winning. I see little "value" on him in the Derby. I am sure some here may not like that "value" comment. Mohaymen's 4th will be disappointing for many but I would toss out his Florida Derby performance. I do believe it was a good learning experience for him. He was really bothered around the first turn, wide throughout the race, fanned wide on the turn home by Nyquist, and all while running on a completely different surface than his previous GStream races. Fast track at Churchill for the Derby and I still think Mohaymen is a player.

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Turfway Park Spiral Stakes

Oscar Nominated won "Best Picture" (photo finish). :) I personally do not see an Animal Kingdom type out of this slow event. But I will happily listen to anyone make a case for one of the top finishers. Unfortunately, my choice (Crescent Drive) did not make the gate.

I actually did have Oscar at 23/1, but since I didn't post it beforehand, it didn't happen. I won't try to make a case for or against him at the place with the pointy roof. Yet. I get an AWD of 8.2f from his pedigree. *insert DD drool here* But it is also a particularly good synthetic surface pedigree. And I don't like equine committee meetings at the wire.

Mohaymen is still on my short list. This horse is not happy with other than fast track. Looked like he was run not to get hurt. He could be a $12 horse by first Saturday in May.

P.S. My wallet hurts.

It makes you appreciate American Pharoah's accomplishments last year even more. To do what he did he had to win in the slop at the Preakness.

Quote: DrawingDead

I actually did have Oscar at 23/1, but since I didn't post it beforehand, it didn't happen. I won't try to make a case for or against him at the place with the pointy roof. Yet. I get an AWD of 8.2f from his pedigree. *insert DD drool here* But it is also a particularly good synthetic surface pedigree. And I don't like equine committee meetings at the wire.

Thanks for the heads up...congrats on finding him in the Spiral.

Kitten's Joy, not a homebred, not nominated for the Triple Crown yet (but the Ramsey's can afford the $200k fee), 75k claimer last October, never run on the dirt...I will pass on him. But maybe he is the next Mine That Bird and you know the Ramsey's would love to have a Kitten's Joy run well (Top 5) in the Derby.

Quote: Sabretom2

Mohaymen is still on my short list. This horse is not happy with other than fast track. Looked like he was run not to get hurt. He could be a $12 horse by first Saturday in May.

P.S. My wallet hurts.

He is now up to 7/1 in the 4th pool, but there is still a few hours for that to change. I could see him going even higher if this fictitious scenario plays out:

Wood Memorial - Shagaf wins
Blue Grass Stakes - Brody's Cause wins
Santa Anita Derby - Mor Spirit wins (Baffert!)
Arkansas Derby - Cupid wins (Baffert!)
Lexington Stakes - Derbygoldfivestarlockwiseguywinner wins (not a real horse*)

Since it is free to post random fleeting thoughts of wild speculation here... at boxcar odds, I think American Pioneer is a little bit interesting... in a degenerate gambler or betting with your money kind of way. I presume he'll get exactly one shot at some qualifying points to make the gate, perhaps in Arkansas 4/16. Just barely enough time if lightening strikes for Wayne Catalano and someone rubs their magic lucky golden monkey just the right way.

Quote: DrawingDead

Since it is free to post random fleeting thoughts of wild speculation here... at boxcar odds, I think American Pioneer is a little bit interesting... in a degenerate gambler or betting with your money kind of way. I presume he'll get exactly one shot at some qualifying points to make the gate, perhaps in Arkansas 4/16. Just barely enough time if lightening strikes for Wayne Catalano and someone rubs their magic lucky golden monkey just the right way.

I was scratching my head as to why he was included in the final Derby pool. Only a maiden winner with no points gets added over others with points. I guess he has a solid AWD for you to mention him. I have watched his MSW race. He was never touched, took dirt, took pressure, rated well, then accelerated down the rail while winning geared down in a time close to Cupid's in the Rebel (one race earlier). My ears are now "pricked" on American Pioneer for the Ark. Derby.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/OP/2016/3/19/11/race-11-msw-at-op-on-3-19-16

He does have a solid pedigree for this; it resembles Orb, with the male & female lines reversed. Using my preferred approach to looking at that quantitatively, his AWD of a scosch over 7.3f indicates to me he may be a likely one for further improvement with additional maturity and distance. But I wouldn't want to tout him to others. As you know, at this point he's up against it to even get there.

Quote: Keeneone

I was scratching my head as to why he was included in the final Derby pool. Only a maiden winner with no points gets added over others with points. I guess he has a solid AWD for you to mention him. I have watched his MSW race. He was never touched, took dirt, took pressure, rated well, then accelerated down the rail while winning geared down in a time close to Cupid's in the Rebel (one race earlier). My ears are now "pricked" on American Pioneer for the Ark. Derby.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/OP/2016/3/19/11/race-11-msw-at-op-on-3-19-16

I guess my timing in mentioning him wasn't the most helpful for that purpose. I hit him pretty hard in his 3/19 race.

Amoss is fuming about Lanerie's ride on Mo Tom who is 15/1 in the final future pool. He is almost sure to take Lanerie off of him. Here are some quotes:


As Amoss watched the nightmare unfold on a flat-screen TV near the entrance to the slots parlor, he doubled over incredulously as Mo Tom ran up the heels of tiring pace-setter Candy My Boy along the rail and steadied in the stretch.

"I was just puzzled as to why Corey went down to the rail," Amoss said.

"I just hope he didn't hurt my horse," Amoss said.

If Lanerie retains the mount on Mo Tom in the Kentucky Derby, it'll be a bigger upset than Middle Tennessee-Michigan State.

"It was a bad ride and totally my fault," Lanerie said.

Such is the fate of closers, horse racing parlance for come-from-behind runners.

Wonder how many Family and Friends he is going to invite to Kentucky in May? Short 5 hr drive for me if I get the call ( I once or twice bet on one of his standardbred paces in Windsor I should be a shoo in)


http://windsorstar.com/sports/auto-racing/minellos-share-nyquists-success-with-reddam

Minellos used to have some of the best pizza money could buy